Magic Market Index for Feb 1st, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/27 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.50$2.79$0.00$0.00-$0.28$0.00
Buy-A-Box Promo: $4.76$12.77$0.00$0.00-$8.01$0.00
Total Set Value: $223.49$245.70$0.00$0.00-$22.21$0.00
Booster Box EV: $107.64$119.18$0.00$0.00-$11.54$0.00
Hit Over Miss: 213%196%0%0%17.26%213.28%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/27 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Domri, Chaos Bringer $8.69$11.36-$2.67
Judith, the Scourge Diva $4.45$6.86-$2.41
Skarrgan Hellkite $6.91$9.20-$2.29
Angel of Grace $7.18$9.04-$1.86
Electrodominance $3.38$4.94-$1.56
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/27 01/17 ± Week ± Month
Hydroid Krasis $28.82$28.64$0.18
Prime Speaker Vannifar $12.34$11.97$0.37
Spawn of Mayhem $10.65$11.04-$0.39
Breeding Pool $9.23$8.25$0.98
Biogenic Ooze $8.70$10.11-$1.41
Domri, Chaos Bringer $8.69$11.36-$2.67
Seraph of the Scales $8.24$7.64$0.60
Blood Crypt $8.07$8.20-$0.13
Stomping Ground $7.59$8.16-$0.57
Godless Shrine $7.23$6.82$0.41
Angel of Grace $7.18$9.04-$1.86
Skarrgan Hellkite $6.91$9.20-$2.29
Dovin, Grand Arbiter $6.91$6.83$0.08
Hallowed Fountain $6.50$6.56-$0.06
Growth-Chamber Guardian $4.70$6.18-$1.48
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper $4.59$5.41-$0.82
Judith, the Scourge Diva $4.45$6.86-$2.41
Smothering Tithe $3.99$4.08-$0.09
Incubation Druid $3.96$4.06-$0.10
Bedevil $3.82$4.75-$0.93
Electrodominance $3.38$4.94-$1.56
Ravager Wurm $3.28$3.76-$0.48
Kaya's Wrath $2.64$3.35-$0.71
Gruul Spellbreaker $2.52$3.38-$0.86
Hero of Precinct One $2.28$2.64-$0.36
Deputy of Detention $2.02$1.72$0.30
 
Commentary
Ravnica Allegiance came out with a bang. We may have fallen back a bit this week, but we're still strongly in the profitable range. A set's always at its highest profitable point at release, and is the most reliable opportunity to flip product. Right now, a bad box that misses all of the top cards is still worth almost $70. That's the largest miss value we've ever seen, and speaks volumes about the reliability of box flipping profit at the moment.
For individual cards, I'm reluctant to offer predictions. The meta is still in flux, and guesswork abounds in many directions. Though the field seems to have simply only adapted current decks, larger changes are still possible. Simic has come out strong, with 4 of the top 5 cards, and Hydroid Krasis commanding the top spot in Ravnica Allegiance, and the #2 spot in all of Standard. The Hydroid is absolutely the current major card to watch, after being a key winner in both the Magic Online PTQ and SCG Open. Whether our Jellyfish Hydra friend can cement his position and remain the second most expensive card in Standard, however, remains to be seen. Creatures always have a harder time staying at the top, but if Carnage Tyrant can do it, the Hydroid can as well.
Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.21$2.21$2.22$2.26$0.00-$0.01
Buy-A-Box Promo: $3.87$4.10$4.33$4.14-$0.23-$0.23
Total Set Value: $183.93$184.37$184.27$187.33-$0.44$0.10
Booster Box EV: $96.57$95.47$94.75$96.72$1.11$0.71
Hit Over Miss: 220%230%230%226%-10.39%-5.77%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $20.53$23.46$23.34$23.05-$2.93-$2.52
Doom Whisperer $8.97$10.11$10.48$11.07-$1.14-$2.10
Midnight Reaper $2.55$1.70$1.25$1.09$0.85$1.46
Lava Coil $2.50$2.00$1.72$1.78$0.50$0.72
Watery Grave $8.27$7.79$7.99$7.87$0.48$0.40
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $20.53$23.46$23.34$23.05-$2.93-$2.52
Steam Vents $10.78$10.91$10.93$10.59-$0.13$0.19
Assassin's Trophy $10.64$10.80$10.94$11.06-$0.16-$0.42
Doom Whisperer $8.97$10.11$10.48$11.07-$1.14-$2.10
Watery Grave $8.27$7.79$7.99$7.87$0.48$0.40
Divine Visitation $7.19$7.67$7.35$7.35-$0.48-$0.16
Sacred Foundry $6.73$6.41$6.87$6.77$0.32-$0.04
Overgrown Tomb $6.14$6.11$6.04$6.14$0.03$0.00
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $5.36$5.65$5.34$5.88-$0.29-$0.52
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $4.87$5.02$5.00$4.99-$0.15-$0.12
Temple Garden $4.80$4.94$4.89$4.78-$0.14$0.02
Risk Factor $4.32$4.19$4.18$4.02$0.13$0.30
Nullhide Ferox $4.21$4.23$4.99$4.75-$0.02-$0.54
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.14$4.20$4.40$4.53-$0.06-$0.39
March of the Multitudes $3.91$4.08$4.44$4.56-$0.17-$0.65
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $3.69$3.91$4.07$4.24-$0.22-$0.55
Chromatic Lantern $3.62$3.64$3.67$3.58-$0.02$0.04
Knight of Autumn $2.94$2.62$2.49$2.53$0.32$0.41
Pelt Collector $2.82$2.92$2.97$3.32-$0.10-$0.50
Midnight Reaper $2.55$1.70$1.25$1.09$0.85$1.46
Lava Coil $2.50$2.00$1.72$1.78$0.50$0.72
Thousand-Year Storm $2.48$2.40$2.52$2.27$0.08$0.21
Trostani Discordant $2.25$1.88$2.06$2.56$0.37-$0.31
Thief of Sanity $2.24$1.84$1.76$1.82$0.40$0.42
Experimental Frenzy $2.12$2.08$2.11$2.20$0.04-$0.08
Legion Warboss $2.01$1.74$1.67$1.65$0.27$0.36
 
Commentary
Although Arclight Phoenix took a hit this week, Guilds has strengthened its overall position through a myriad of small middle-ground changes. Guilds' hit-over-miss is second only to Ravnica Allegiance, and the past few weeks of small box value upticks has put it just into a profitable range. This is a perfect opportunity for players to crack boxes for what they need and sell off what they don't, recouping much of their box cost.
For profit seekers, we're at a tight crossroads. Large volume sellers can buy in bulk for discounted boxes and have plenty of room for profit, but individuals and small shops are looking at a very short margin. The secondary market still has Guilds boxes for just over $90 shipped, making the $96 expected value barely on the plus side here. If you're a small seller without a direct line to boxes, know that you have to be on the top of your game to make money on Guilds, but it is definitely possible.
Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.48$1.50$1.49$1.51-$0.01-$0.03
Buy-A-Box Promo: $24.68$23.77$23.48$23.09$0.91$1.59
Total Set Value: $159.94$160.96$159.63$161.70-$1.02-$1.76
Booster Box EV: $61.37$62.24$61.58$62.51-$0.87-$1.14
Hit Over Miss: 286%281%287%288%5.07%-1.56%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $20.25$19.05$19.31$19.57$1.20$0.68
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $18.69$19.66$20.16$20.10-$0.97-$1.41
Sarkhan, Fireblood $10.13$10.90$10.72$11.62-$0.77-$1.49
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $11.13$11.74$11.29$11.54-$0.61-$0.41
Resplendent Angel $12.19$12.62$12.78$13.26-$0.43-$1.07
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $20.25$19.05$19.31$19.57$1.20$0.68
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $18.69$19.66$20.16$20.10-$0.97-$1.41
Crucible of Worlds $12.39$12.64$12.70$12.57-$0.25-$0.18
Resplendent Angel $12.19$12.62$12.78$13.26-$0.43-$1.07
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $11.13$11.74$11.29$11.54-$0.61-$0.41
Sarkhan, Fireblood $10.13$10.90$10.72$11.62-$0.77-$1.49
Arcades, the Strategist $6.62$6.68$4.95$3.70-$0.06$2.92
Scapeshift $6.54$6.54$6.62$6.72$0.00-$0.18
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.57$5.71$5.61$5.44-$0.14$0.13
Omniscience $5.34$5.38$5.33$5.44-$0.04-$0.10
Banefire $4.23$4.38$4.26$4.34-$0.15-$0.11
Cleansing Nova $4.00$3.93$4.22$4.37$0.07-$0.37
Liliana, Untouched by Death $2.90$2.91$2.90$2.99-$0.01-$0.09
Elvish Clancaller $2.41$2.21$1.92$2.04$0.20$0.37
 
Commentary
Core 2019's outlook remains dim, and we're nowhere near box-flipping territory. Most cards took a hit this week, as has been the trend for some time. If you want to invest in Core 2019, do so with individual cards only. Even then, be cautious, as only a couple of cards have a positive course and the field is still settling down. Vivien Reid has some good traction in mid-range aggro, showing in Simic, Selesnya, and Gruul decks alike. I see her as the safest bet in the set, but even she isn't a garuntee.
Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.83$1.86$1.84$1.89-$0.03-$0.06
Buy-A-Box Promo: $1.59$1.48$1.62$1.67$0.11-$0.08
Total Set Value: $183.34$186.59$184.52$189.06-$3.25-$5.72
Booster Box EV: $80.08$80.08$79.54$81.27$0.00-$1.19
Hit Over Miss: 372%386%392%399%-13.99%-27.23%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $44.25$46.71$45.92$48.05-$2.46-$3.80
History of Benalia $11.95$13.53$13.50$14.19-$1.58-$2.24
Sulfur Falls $8.37$9.39$9.98$10.37-$1.02-$2.00
Hinterland Harbor $5.82$4.89$4.26$4.22$0.93$1.60
Isolated Chapel $4.81$4.36$3.79$3.86$0.45$0.95
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $44.25$46.71$45.92$48.05-$2.46-$3.80
Karn, Scion of Urza $18.88$18.69$19.03$18.94$0.19-$0.06
History of Benalia $11.95$13.53$13.50$14.19-$1.58-$2.24
Lyra Dawnbringer $11.57$11.28$11.18$11.72$0.29-$0.15
Sulfur Falls $8.37$9.39$9.98$10.37-$1.02-$2.00
Mox Amber $6.36$6.46$6.42$6.17-$0.10$0.19
Hinterland Harbor $5.82$4.89$4.26$4.22$0.93$1.60
Isolated Chapel $4.81$4.36$3.79$3.86$0.45$0.95
Woodland Cemetery $4.81$4.75$4.71$4.89$0.06-$0.08
Clifftop Retreat $4.76$4.96$5.06$5.21-$0.20-$0.45
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.54$3.51$3.50$3.59$0.03-$0.05
Helm of the Host $3.48$3.43$3.35$3.26$0.05$0.22
Goblin Chainwhirler $3.31$3.12$2.56$2.89$0.19$0.42
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.76$2.73$2.81$2.84$0.03-$0.08
Gilded Lotus $2.64$2.51$2.54$2.56$0.13$0.08
 
Commentary
Dominaria continues to inch its way out of the hole, little by little, inch by inch. While its expected box returns are higher than Core 2019, the hit-over-miss variability is still out of control. We did see them shrink again this week, but we have a ways to go. Teferi remains the largest problem for reliability, but I can't deny that progress is progress.
The Checklands are the real cards to watch. As the meta shifts, the applicable lands shift with them. Ravnica's Shocklands may be the marquee land cycle in Standard, but they don't fill a manabase by themselves. With Simic on the rise, we've already seen Hinterland Harbor climb these past two weeks, and it very well might continue this trend for another dollar or two.
Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.97$1.96$2.00$2.04$0.01-$0.07
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.12$0.12$0.21$0.21$0.00-$0.09
Total Set Value: $171.50$170.27$172.85$177.38$1.23-$5.88
Booster Box EV: $86.91$84.36$85.45$87.81$2.56-$0.89
Hit Over Miss: 244%238%239%239%5.69%4.58%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $10.49$11.45$13.48$14.51-$0.96-$4.02
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.38$13.52$13.13$13.62$0.86$0.76
Jadelight Ranger $8.04$7.44$7.96$8.41$0.60-$0.37
Hadana's Climb $5.81$5.32$5.49$4.73$0.49$1.08
Tendershoot Dryad $2.62$2.94$2.96$3.21-$0.32-$0.59
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $19.24$19.06$19.73$20.26$0.18-$1.02
The Immortal Sun $15.82$15.95$16.03$16.73-$0.13-$0.91
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $14.38$13.52$13.13$13.62$0.86$0.76
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $10.49$11.45$13.48$14.51-$0.96-$4.02
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.63$8.75$8.04$8.18-$0.12$0.45
Jadelight Ranger $8.04$7.44$7.96$8.41$0.60-$0.37
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $7.11$6.93$7.27$7.64$0.18-$0.53
Twilight Prophet $6.89$7.09$7.22$7.68-$0.20-$0.79
Hadana's Climb $5.81$5.32$5.49$4.73$0.49$1.08
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.58$4.72$4.78$4.90-$0.14-$0.32
Wayward Swordtooth $4.51$4.32$4.27$4.28$0.19$0.23
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $4.12$4.26$4.27$4.15-$0.14-$0.03
Azor's Gateway $3.88$4.05$4.22$4.32-$0.17-$0.44
Journey to Eternity $3.50$3.74$3.99$4.15-$0.24-$0.65
Etali, Primal Storm $3.40$3.37$3.29$3.22$0.03$0.18
Warkite Marauder $2.73$2.78$2.62$2.79-$0.05-$0.06
Tendershoot Dryad $2.62$2.94$2.96$3.21-$0.32-$0.59
Polyraptor $2.55$2.44$2.59$2.48$0.11$0.07
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.21$2.08$2.25$2.33$0.13-$0.12
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.17$2.24$2.16$2.27-$0.07-$0.10
Curious Obsession $2.07$2.01$1.89$2.05$0.06$0.02
 
Commentary
Rivals remains the ever solid pillar of stability, just like its predescessor Ixalan. Although the profit margin is almost negligible, given its $87 cost in the secondary market, the fact that you can still reliably recoup your entire investment is staggering at this age.
Much of Guilds' commentary applies here as well. We have a great opportunity for fleshing out your collection and selling what you don't need, but if you're looking for profit you need to buy in bulk if you can. Otherwise you need to find a cheap source, be on the top of your game, or cross your fingers for a little luck.
Set Overview
Metric 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.93$1.91$1.92$1.94$0.02-$0.01
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.21$0.20$0.20$0.20$0.01$0.01
Total Set Value: $191.31$189.80$189.20$192.38$1.51-$1.07
Booster Box EV: $97.01$95.11$94.65$95.23$1.90$1.78
Hit Over Miss: 245%249%252%257%-3.63%-12.18%
Top 5 Movers
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $26.66$27.94$26.62$27.26-$1.28-$0.60
Star of Extinction $7.51$8.60$8.77$9.16-$1.09-$1.65
Treasure Map $8.14$7.31$8.48$8.96$0.83-$0.82
Dragonskull Summit $4.66$4.13$3.81$3.95$0.53$0.71
Vraska's Contempt $8.70$8.18$9.18$9.36$0.52-$0.66
Top Cards
Card 01/31 01/24 01/17 01/10 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $26.66$27.94$26.62$27.26-$1.28-$0.60
Search for Azcanta $13.85$13.92$13.88$13.92-$0.07-$0.07
Vraska's Contempt $8.70$8.18$9.18$9.36$0.52-$0.66
Treasure Map $8.14$7.31$8.48$8.96$0.83-$0.82
Star of Extinction $7.51$8.60$8.77$9.16-$1.09-$1.65
Legion's Landing $6.18$6.57$6.68$6.42-$0.39-$0.24
Vraska, Relic Seeker $6.08$6.38$6.48$7.02-$0.30-$0.94
Drowned Catacomb $5.92$5.65$5.99$5.90$0.27$0.02
Settle the Wreckage $5.47$5.61$5.47$5.78-$0.14-$0.31
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $5.43$5.90$5.57$5.35-$0.47$0.08
Glacial Fortress $5.34$4.86$4.80$4.70$0.48$0.64
Dragonskull Summit $4.66$4.13$3.81$3.95$0.53$0.71
Vanquisher's Banner $4.45$4.42$4.45$4.73$0.03-$0.28
Sunpetal Grove $4.30$4.54$4.70$4.74-$0.24-$0.44
Rootbound Crag $3.83$3.46$3.56$3.46$0.37$0.37
Primal Amulet $3.01$2.79$2.59$2.41$0.22$0.60
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $2.83$2.80$2.74$2.75$0.03$0.08
Hostage Taker $2.60$2.48$2.58$2.40$0.12$0.20
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.55$2.63$2.54$2.58-$0.08-$0.03
Field of Ruin $2.55$2.61$2.45$2.30-$0.06$0.25
Chart a Course $2.44$2.17$2.16$2.53$0.27-$0.09
Siren Stormtamer $2.37$2.10$2.17$2.27$0.27$0.10
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.34$2.36$2.39$2.27-$0.02$0.07
Thaumatic Compass $2.26$2.28$2.18$2.17-$0.02$0.09
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.07$2.07$2.21$2.11$0.00-$0.04
Merfolk Branchwalker $2.04$1.69$1.52$1.69$0.35$0.35
 
Commentary
Ixalan is in the same boat as Guilds and Rivals, with just enough room to turn a small profit if you're looking to buy boxes indirectly. The secondary market has boxes for $93, so it's margin is in line with Guilds, offering a little more than Rivals. Ixalan might be the oldest set in Standard, but it rotates no sooner than Dominaria or Core 2019, and has more than proven itself.

Parting Thoughts...

All eyes are upon Ravnica Allegiance, and it definitely holds the most reliable profit margin at the moment. Every seller should be turning through as much product here as they can. Even newcomers will have a hard time not making money if they act quickly.

That said, established sellers need to make sure they don't have their new set blinders on. You'll be doing yourself a great disservice if you ignore the rest of Standard and just focus on Ravnica Allegiance. We're in a very strong market at the moment, with four of the six Standard sets offering profit potential in their boxes. Even if you're buying your boxes on the secondary market, these sets still have potential - which is quite an incredible feat. I don't recall when we've had two out of three Standard sets clearly in the profitable range. Meatloaf might have only said "2 out of 3 ain't bad", but in the world of magic finance and market profit, 2 out of 3 is actually a glorious sight to behold.

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