Magic Market Index for Dec 28th, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.25$2.17$2.15$2.32$0.08$0.02
Buy-A-Box Promo: $4.34$4.49$5.73$3.74-$0.15-$1.24
Total Set Value: $188.11$182.59$181.67$193.68$5.52$0.92
Booster Box EV: $100.41$98.30$96.75$98.21$2.11$1.55
Hit Over Miss: 232%235%236%237%-2.69%-4.33%
Top 5 Movers
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Pelt Collector $3.77$2.62$1.54$1.35$1.15$2.42
Divine Visitation $5.83$4.90$3.49$3.98$0.93$1.85
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $5.73$5.32$5.08$5.19$0.41$0.54
Doom Whisperer $10.95$11.34$12.04$14.59-$0.39-$3.64
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $5.18$4.83$5.02$5.39$0.35-$0.21
Top Cards
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $25.18$25.09$24.85$25.37$0.09-$0.19
Assassin's Trophy $11.73$11.39$11.07$11.89$0.34-$0.16
Doom Whisperer $10.95$11.34$12.04$14.59-$0.39-$3.64
Steam Vents $10.94$10.75$10.26$10.69$0.19$0.25
Watery Grave $7.95$7.86$7.73$8.05$0.09-$0.10
Sacred Foundry $6.64$6.69$6.52$7.06-$0.05-$0.42
Overgrown Tomb $6.26$6.09$6.38$6.63$0.17-$0.37
Divine Visitation $5.83$4.90$3.49$3.98$0.93$1.85
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $5.73$5.32$5.08$5.19$0.41$0.54
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $5.18$4.83$5.02$5.39$0.35-$0.21
March of the Multitudes $4.83$4.86$5.37$5.81-$0.03-$0.98
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $4.81$4.80$5.79$7.06$0.01-$2.25
Vraska, Golgari Queen $4.78$4.67$5.37$6.16$0.11-$1.38
Temple Garden $4.67$4.38$4.65$4.74$0.29-$0.07
Risk Factor $4.15$4.20$4.44$4.52-$0.05-$0.37
Pelt Collector $3.77$2.62$1.54$1.35$1.15$2.42
Chromatic Lantern $3.37$3.25$3.20$3.23$0.12$0.14
Nullhide Ferox $2.73$2.80$2.39$2.56-$0.07$0.17
Knight of Autumn $2.41$2.34$2.32$2.67$0.07-$0.26
Trostani Discordant $2.37$2.07$1.90$2.51$0.30-$0.14
Dream Eater $2.15$2.05$2.16$2.41$0.10-$0.26
Experimental Frenzy $2.13$2.18$2.09$2.46-$0.05-$0.33
Runaway Steam-Kin $2.05$2.12$2.37$2.35-$0.07-$0.30
 
Commentary
Guilds claims the top spot in Standard. Not only does it posses the highest booster box expected value, but it also has the lowest hit-over-miss. That miss value is also the highest of all Standard sets, coming in at a respectable $55. This means, directly, that it has the highest consistent profit margin with very stable returns. Although we've had a bit of a slump, Guilds has held steady and has now crossed quite solidly back into the profitable range. A successful return can be had with only a couple good pulls, so the time is again ripe for flipping boxes.
Set Overview
Metric 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.52$1.54$1.56$1.62-$0.01-$0.09
Buy-A-Box Promo: $14.87$13.30$11.19$11.28$1.57$3.59
Total Set Value: $164.08$164.94$166.91$172.41-$0.86-$8.33
Booster Box EV: $63.56$64.06$65.23$66.97-$0.50-$3.41
Hit Over Miss: 298%301%314%316%-3.13%-18.71%
Top 5 Movers
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Resplendent Angel $14.02$15.30$16.30$17.13-$1.28-$3.11
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $20.63$19.83$20.89$22.31$0.80-$1.68
Sarkhan, Fireblood $11.47$11.90$11.78$12.52-$0.43-$1.05
Thorn Lieutenant $2.44$2.84$2.94$3.22-$0.40-$0.78
Crucible of Worlds $12.53$12.27$12.47$13.10$0.26-$0.57
Top Cards
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $20.88$20.90$22.18$21.74-$0.02-$0.86
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $20.63$19.83$20.89$22.31$0.80-$1.68
Resplendent Angel $14.02$15.30$16.30$17.13-$1.28-$3.11
Crucible of Worlds $12.53$12.27$12.47$13.10$0.26-$0.57
Sarkhan, Fireblood $11.47$11.90$11.78$12.52-$0.43-$1.05
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $11.35$11.27$10.34$11.36$0.08-$0.01
Scapeshift $6.60$6.64$6.53$6.81-$0.04-$0.21
Omniscience $5.50$5.30$5.08$5.16$0.20$0.34
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.04$5.04$5.05$5.11$0.00-$0.07
Cleansing Nova $4.50$4.62$4.54$5.02-$0.12-$0.52
Banefire $4.43$4.38$5.15$5.19$0.05-$0.76
Arcades, the Strategist $3.59$3.54$3.54$3.68$0.05-$0.09
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.06$3.18$3.33$3.34-$0.12-$0.28
Thorn Lieutenant $2.44$2.84$2.94$3.22-$0.40-$0.78
Supreme Phantom $2.02$1.83$1.71$1.70$0.19$0.32
 
Commentary
The rebound from our recent slump did not hold solid for Core 2019, as it slips back again for the third week in a row. Only the top boxes turn a profit, and there remains a plethora of bad boxes that can easily hit as low as $35. All of Core 2019's top cards have continued to fall, and this loss hasn't been recouped by its other cards. Only two valued cards have seen growth this month, and neither was at all exceptional. Core 2019 needs something truly amazing to turn it around at this point, and such a thing doesn't seem plausible.
Set Overview
Metric 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.90$1.85$1.83$1.97$0.05-$0.07
Buy-A-Box Promo: $1.89$1.92$1.99$2.05-$0.03-$0.16
Total Set Value: $192.35$187.84$185.77$197.87$4.51-$5.52
Booster Box EV: $83.56$81.76$81.33$86.95$1.80-$3.39
Hit Over Miss: 395%400%384%374%-4.46%21.25%
Top 5 Movers
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $47.33$45.54$42.81$41.90$1.79$5.43
Mox Amber $6.41$5.83$5.95$5.99$0.58$0.42
Helm of the Host $3.18$2.78$3.08$3.03$0.40$0.15
Benalish Marshal $1.98$1.66$2.18$2.53$0.32-$0.55
Gilded Lotus $2.52$2.24$2.42$2.39$0.28$0.13
Top Cards
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $47.33$45.54$42.81$41.90$1.79$5.43
Karn, Scion of Urza $18.57$18.46$17.80$18.79$0.11-$0.22
History of Benalia $15.10$15.09$15.35$18.53$0.01-$3.43
Lyra Dawnbringer $11.21$11.36$11.86$14.61-$0.15-$3.40
Sulfur Falls $10.83$10.82$10.78$11.66$0.01-$0.83
Mox Amber $6.41$5.83$5.95$5.99$0.58$0.42
Clifftop Retreat $5.22$5.01$4.42$5.07$0.21$0.15
Woodland Cemetery $4.83$4.86$4.92$5.19-$0.03-$0.36
Hinterland Harbor $3.83$3.76$3.58$3.66$0.07$0.17
Isolated Chapel $3.72$3.74$3.52$3.70-$0.02$0.02
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.65$3.60$3.55$3.72$0.05-$0.07
Helm of the Host $3.18$2.78$3.08$3.03$0.40$0.15
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.85$2.92$2.68$3.22-$0.07-$0.37
Goblin Chainwhirler $2.55$2.70$2.94$3.82-$0.15-$1.27
Gilded Lotus $2.52$2.24$2.42$2.39$0.28$0.13
 
Commentary
The market resurgence has been very kind to Dominaria this week, and it is a welcome sight. Every significant movement was upward, and the losses we did see were all very minor. Even the set's hit-over-miss, which has been one of its biggest points of struggle, saw improvement this week. We've still got some distance to go before we're at an averaged profit or anywhere near reliable returns, but we are at least at an acceptable gamble.
Set Overview
Metric 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.94$1.86$1.91$1.96$0.08-$0.02
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.24$0.25$0.21$0.20-$0.01$0.04
Total Set Value: $167.70$160.65$164.13$169.51$7.05-$1.81
Booster Box EV: $84.61$81.28$80.57$84.15$3.33$0.46
Hit Over Miss: 243%244%257%265%-1.87%-22.06%
Top 5 Movers
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $9.88$6.90$6.11$6.06$2.98$3.82
Hadana's Climb $4.08$2.70$1.53$1.32$1.38$2.76
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $6.55$5.73$5.05$5.21$0.82$1.34
Jadelight Ranger $8.62$8.27$8.87$9.72$0.35-$1.10
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $6.66$6.32$5.71$5.96$0.34$0.70
Top Cards
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $22.12$21.84$24.17$26.33$0.28-$4.21
The Immortal Sun $16.88$16.68$17.30$18.34$0.20-$1.46
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $9.88$6.90$6.11$6.06$2.98$3.82
Jadelight Ranger $8.62$8.27$8.87$9.72$0.35-$1.10
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.23$8.15$8.22$8.27$0.08-$0.04
Twilight Prophet $7.49$7.23$7.42$7.69$0.26-$0.20
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $6.66$6.32$5.71$5.96$0.34$0.70
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $6.55$5.73$5.05$5.21$0.82$1.34
Huatli, Radiant Champion $4.61$4.69$4.82$5.14-$0.08-$0.53
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $4.48$4.43$5.13$5.26$0.05-$0.78
Journey to Eternity $4.35$4.29$4.59$4.66$0.06-$0.31
Wayward Swordtooth $4.21$4.02$4.31$4.36$0.19-$0.15
Hadana's Climb $4.08$2.70$1.53$1.32$1.38$2.76
Azor's Gateway $3.82$3.97$4.79$4.95-$0.15-$1.13
Tendershoot Dryad $3.24$3.20$3.38$3.22$0.04$0.02
Etali, Primal Storm $3.19$3.25$3.32$3.16-$0.06$0.03
Warkite Marauder $2.83$2.89$2.92$3.00-$0.06-$0.17
Polyraptor $2.40$2.30$2.39$2.39$0.10$0.01
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.30$2.23$2.35$2.44$0.07-$0.14
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.19$2.29$2.33$2.68-$0.10-$0.49
Radiant Destiny $2.19$2.19$2.24$2.11$0.00$0.08
Curious Obsession $2.10$2.21$2.02$2.19-$0.11-$0.09
 
Commentary
Rivals had drifted away from its namesake gold mine, Ixalan, but is starting to inch back towards it once again. Much like Guilds and Dominaria, all of Rivals' significant change was in the form of growth. Much of this has been spurred by Allegiance hype. The anticipation for Rakdos, for instance, has directly caused Angrath to jump 40% practically overnight. The same holds true for Zacama and Hadana's Climb, both directly growing from Simic's return and revealed cards.
Set Overview
Metric 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.96$1.93$2.00$2.12$0.02-$0.16
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.19$0.18$0.18$0.20$0.01-$0.01
Total Set Value: $193.92$191.51$197.75$209.66$2.41-$15.74
Booster Box EV: $97.07$95.17$98.26$105.12$1.90-$8.05
Hit Over Miss: 256%259%258%262%-2.89%-6.04%
Top 5 Movers
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $27.36$26.84$27.64$30.86$0.52-$3.50
Vraska, Relic Seeker $7.12$7.43$7.93$9.81-$0.31-$2.69
Ripjaw Raptor $2.00$1.72$2.04$2.17$0.28-$0.17
Settle the Wreckage $5.88$6.14$6.08$6.81-$0.26-$0.93
Siren Stormtamer $2.42$2.20$2.31$2.62$0.22-$0.20
Top Cards
Card 12/27 12/20 12/13 12/06 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $27.36$26.84$27.64$30.86$0.52-$3.50
Search for Azcanta $13.82$13.68$13.85$14.82$0.14-$1.00
Vraska's Contempt $10.23$10.42$11.16$12.75-$0.19-$2.52
Star of Extinction $8.83$8.75$9.38$9.09$0.08-$0.26
Treasure Map $8.50$8.49$8.20$7.85$0.01$0.65
Vraska, Relic Seeker $7.12$7.43$7.93$9.81-$0.31-$2.69
Legion's Landing $6.58$6.69$7.45$7.66-$0.11-$1.08
Drowned Catacomb $6.24$6.13$5.91$6.25$0.11-$0.01
Settle the Wreckage $5.88$6.14$6.08$6.81-$0.26-$0.93
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $5.36$5.19$5.17$5.25$0.17$0.11
Sunpetal Grove $4.73$4.66$4.88$5.40$0.07-$0.67
Glacial Fortress $4.55$4.54$4.42$4.64$0.01-$0.09
Vanquisher's Banner $4.43$4.64$4.44$4.70-$0.21-$0.27
Dragonskull Summit $3.62$3.51$3.54$3.73$0.11-$0.11
Rootbound Crag $2.86$2.74$2.89$2.84$0.12$0.02
Hostage Taker $2.77$2.77$2.89$2.92$0.00-$0.15
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.64$2.55$2.54$2.75$0.09-$0.11
Field of Ruin $2.62$2.45$2.56$2.49$0.17$0.13
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $2.58$2.42$2.57$2.59$0.16-$0.01
Siren Stormtamer $2.42$2.20$2.31$2.62$0.22-$0.20
Primal Amulet $2.37$2.26$2.33$2.38$0.11-$0.01
Thaumatic Compass $2.33$2.28$2.32$2.46$0.05-$0.13
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.28$2.44$2.55$2.65-$0.16-$0.37
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.25$2.27$2.59$2.66-$0.02-$0.41
Sorcerous Spyglass $2.25$2.24$2.32$2.37$0.01-$0.12
Tocatli Honor Guard $2.14$2.15$2.42$2.46-$0.01-$0.32
Chart a Course $2.08$2.10$1.97$1.94-$0.02$0.14
Ripjaw Raptor $2.00$1.72$2.04$2.17$0.28-$0.17
 
Commentary
Although Ixlan has fallen to the number 2 spot, the resilience here remains astounding. Ixalan was lagging behind other sets during this Standard slump, with last week actually being its big loss, but we've already rebounded from that. This week's growth was slightly more sporadic than other sets, but the rebound started mid week, and we should see a true market reflection in the coming days. Considering we just hit a heavy market decline and Ixalan never dipped below a $95 return, its consistency should never be questioned. To put it more simply and directly, there's never been a bad time to flip an Ixalan box. Not in its entire 15 month life.

Parting Thoughts...

The market is a pendulum, and we've started to hit an upswing. Don't wait until the numbers are at their highest to start turning through product. Even if the Allegiance hype falls through soon, flipping and listing now is the right move. Selling takes time, and you want to start flipping boxes as soon as the market begins its climb. If you wait for the market to peak, you're often too late, as most of your cards will actually sell on the other side of the summit. You want the bulk of your sales to straddle the crest, so that your average is the highest possible. That said, there's no reason to think the Allegiance boost won't hold steady. Official spoiler season doesn't even start until next week, so there's plenty of excitement still to come!

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