Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.
All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $2.32 | $2.43 | $2.44 | $2.73 | -$0.11 | -$0.01 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $18.88 | $18.88 | $18.88 | $18.88 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Total Set Value: | $193.70 | $200.09 | $203.52 | $224.69 | -$6.39 | -$3.43 |
| Booster Box EV: | $98.21 | $102.14 | $102.47 | $112.57 | -$3.93 | -$0.33 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 237% | 228% | 226% | 214% | 8.54% | 22.45% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Arclight Phoenix | $25.37 | $22.61 | $20.57 | $21.43 | $2.76 | $3.94 |
| Assassin's Trophy | $11.89 | $12.76 | $13.14 | $14.27 | -$0.87 | -$2.38 |
| Niv-Mizzet, Parun | $5.19 | $6.05 | $5.06 | $3.76 | -$0.86 | $1.43 |
| Doom Whisperer | $14.59 | $15.42 | $16.97 | $17.87 | -$0.83 | -$3.28 |
| Risk Factor | $4.52 | $5.22 | $5.00 | $6.71 | -$0.70 | -$2.19 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Arclight Phoenix | $25.37 | $22.61 | $20.57 | $21.43 | $2.76 | $3.94 |
| Doom Whisperer | $14.59 | $15.42 | $16.97 | $17.87 | -$0.83 | -$3.28 |
| Assassin's Trophy | $11.89 | $12.76 | $13.14 | $14.27 | -$0.87 | -$2.38 |
| Steam Vents | $10.69 | $11.22 | $10.51 | $10.09 | -$0.53 | $0.60 |
| Watery Grave | $8.05 | $8.30 | $7.87 | $8.36 | -$0.25 | -$0.31 |
| Sacred Foundry | $7.06 | $7.57 | $7.22 | $7.76 | -$0.51 | -$0.70 |
| Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice | $7.06 | $7.50 | $8.38 | $9.61 | -$0.44 | -$2.55 |
| Overgrown Tomb | $6.63 | $6.80 | $6.83 | $7.26 | -$0.17 | -$0.63 |
| Vraska, Golgari Queen | $6.16 | $6.47 | $7.49 | $9.37 | -$0.31 | -$3.21 |
| March of the Multitudes | $5.81 | $6.08 | $6.87 | $8.05 | -$0.27 | -$2.24 |
| Ral, Izzet Viceroy | $5.39 | $5.71 | $6.33 | $7.28 | -$0.32 | -$1.89 |
| Niv-Mizzet, Parun | $5.19 | $6.05 | $5.06 | $3.76 | -$0.86 | $1.43 |
| Temple Garden | $4.74 | $4.88 | $4.92 | $5.24 | -$0.14 | -$0.50 |
| Risk Factor | $4.52 | $5.22 | $5.00 | $6.71 | -$0.70 | -$2.19 |
| Divine Visitation | $3.98 | $4.10 | $4.25 | $4.31 | -$0.12 | -$0.33 |
| Chromatic Lantern | $3.23 | $3.32 | $3.13 | $3.30 | -$0.09 | -$0.07 |
| Knight of Autumn | $2.67 | $2.87 | $2.60 | $3.58 | -$0.20 | -$0.91 |
| Nullhide Ferox | $2.56 | $2.45 | $2.95 | $3.96 | $0.11 | -$1.40 |
| Trostani Discordant | $2.51 | $2.63 | $2.76 | $3.10 | -$0.12 | -$0.59 |
| Experimental Frenzy | $2.46 | $2.46 | $2.77 | $3.36 | $0.00 | -$0.90 |
| Dream Eater | $2.41 | $2.48 | $2.56 | $3.63 | -$0.07 | -$1.22 |
| Runaway Steam-Kin | $2.35 | $2.40 | $2.82 | $3.93 | -$0.05 | -$1.58 |
| Ionize | $2.31 | $2.40 | $2.60 | $3.09 | -$0.09 | -$0.78 |
| Thousand-Year Storm | $2.27 | $2.60 | $2.71 | $2.62 | -$0.33 | -$0.35 |
| Underrealm Lich | $2.14 | $2.56 | $2.76 | $3.23 | -$0.42 | -$1.09 |
| Thief of Sanity | $2.12 | $2.32 | $2.24 | $2.51 | -$0.20 | -$0.39 |
| Mission Briefing | $2.03 | $2.01 | $2.09 | $2.94 | $0.02 | -$0.91 |
Commentary
Guilds tumbles some more, with only a minor few holdouts. Arclight Phoenix is the one card truly going against the grain. Given that our previous top phoenix was an oddball that payed no attention to set trends either, this is both ironic and somewhat surmisable. If Arclight follows Rekindling's other trends, it will bounce back and forth, over and over, with very little predictability. Unpredictable movement is a headache for both the market and everyone within it, so hopefully the previous flavorful phoenix action won't become a trend.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.62 | $1.62 | $1.59 | $1.71 | $0.00 | -$0.09 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $11.28 | $11.53 | $11.16 | $12.64 | -$0.25 | -$1.36 |
| Total Set Value: | $172.41 | $172.43 | $167.98 | $180.41 | -$0.02 | -$8.00 |
| Booster Box EV: | $66.97 | $67.19 | $65.20 | $70.41 | -$0.22 | -$3.44 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 316% | 314% | 307% | 317% | 1.81% | -0.83% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $12.52 | $11.31 | $11.32 | $12.78 | $1.21 | -$0.26 |
| Vivien Reid | $21.74 | $20.96 | $19.77 | $20.91 | $0.78 | $0.83 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $11.36 | $11.98 | $10.80 | $11.36 | -$0.62 | $0.00 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $13.10 | $12.86 | $12.76 | $12.64 | $0.24 | $0.46 |
| Thorn Lieutenant | $3.22 | $3.46 | $3.30 | $4.52 | -$0.24 | -$1.30 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Nicol Bolas, the Ravager | $22.31 | $22.42 | $20.81 | $22.86 | -$0.11 | -$0.55 |
| Vivien Reid | $21.74 | $20.96 | $19.77 | $20.91 | $0.78 | $0.83 |
| Resplendent Angel | $17.13 | $16.97 | $16.32 | $19.23 | $0.16 | -$2.10 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $13.10 | $12.86 | $12.76 | $12.64 | $0.24 | $0.46 |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $12.52 | $11.31 | $11.32 | $12.78 | $1.21 | -$0.26 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $11.36 | $11.98 | $10.80 | $11.36 | -$0.62 | $0.00 |
| Scapeshift | $6.81 | $6.81 | $6.94 | $7.46 | $0.00 | -$0.65 |
| Banefire | $5.19 | $5.19 | $5.20 | $5.51 | $0.00 | -$0.32 |
| Omniscience | $5.16 | $5.35 | $5.03 | $5.13 | -$0.19 | $0.03 |
| Tezzeret, Artifice Master | $5.11 | $5.07 | $5.00 | $5.15 | $0.04 | -$0.04 |
| Cleansing Nova | $5.02 | $5.10 | $5.16 | $5.03 | -$0.08 | -$0.01 |
| Arcades, the Strategist | $3.68 | $3.74 | $3.14 | $3.67 | -$0.06 | $0.01 |
| Liliana, Untouched by Death | $3.34 | $3.37 | $3.27 | $3.53 | -$0.03 | -$0.19 |
| Thorn Lieutenant | $3.22 | $3.46 | $3.30 | $4.52 | -$0.24 | -$1.30 |
| Death Baron | $2.28 | $2.28 | $2.34 | $2.51 | $0.00 | -$0.23 |
Commentary
Core 2019 stays mostly still, with only a few noticeable changes. None of these changes are dramatic, staying within range of where the card has been previously, and they all end up balancing themselves out. As such, last week's comments remain true this week. Core 2019 desperately needs to rebound for it redeem itself, and you should stick to investing in singles for the interim.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.97 | $2.06 | $2.11 | $2.20 | -$0.09 | -$0.24 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $2.05 | $2.05 | $2.33 | $2.29 | $0.00 | -$0.24 |
| Total Set Value: | $197.87 | $208.18 | $212.99 | $221.50 | -$10.31 | -$23.63 |
| Booster Box EV: | $86.95 | $91.54 | $93.11 | $98.48 | -$4.59 | -$11.53 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 374% | 383% | 371% | 365% | -8.34% | 9.43% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $41.90 | $48.93 | $46.30 | $48.14 | -$7.03 | -$6.24 |
| Lyra Dawnbringer | $14.61 | $15.65 | $17.40 | $18.50 | -$1.04 | -$3.89 |
| Mox Amber | $5.99 | $6.45 | $7.08 | $7.40 | -$0.46 | -$1.41 |
| Clifftop Retreat | $5.07 | $5.46 | $5.38 | $5.39 | -$0.39 | -$0.32 |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $18.79 | $18.55 | $18.63 | $19.88 | $0.24 | -$1.09 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $41.90 | $48.93 | $46.30 | $48.14 | -$7.03 | -$6.24 |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $18.79 | $18.55 | $18.63 | $19.88 | $0.24 | -$1.09 |
| History of Benalia | $18.53 | $18.65 | $21.11 | $21.07 | -$0.12 | -$2.54 |
| Lyra Dawnbringer | $14.61 | $15.65 | $17.40 | $18.50 | -$1.04 | -$3.89 |
| Sulfur Falls | $11.66 | $11.79 | $11.74 | $11.87 | -$0.13 | -$0.21 |
| Mox Amber | $5.99 | $6.45 | $7.08 | $7.40 | -$0.46 | -$1.41 |
| Woodland Cemetery | $5.19 | $5.29 | $5.73 | $6.54 | -$0.10 | -$1.35 |
| Clifftop Retreat | $5.07 | $5.46 | $5.38 | $5.39 | -$0.39 | -$0.32 |
| Goblin Chainwhirler | $3.82 | $3.94 | $4.35 | $4.40 | -$0.12 | -$0.58 |
| Muldrotha, the Gravetide | $3.72 | $3.56 | $3.21 | $3.73 | $0.16 | -$0.01 |
| Isolated Chapel | $3.70 | $3.76 | $3.78 | $3.59 | -$0.06 | $0.11 |
| Hinterland Harbor | $3.66 | $3.56 | $3.67 | $3.56 | $0.10 | $0.10 |
| Shalai, Voice of Plenty | $3.22 | $3.17 | $3.38 | $4.40 | $0.05 | -$1.18 |
| Helm of the Host | $3.03 | $3.20 | $3.24 | $3.08 | -$0.17 | -$0.05 |
| Benalish Marshal | $2.53 | $2.60 | $2.57 | $2.75 | -$0.07 | -$0.22 |
| Gilded Lotus | $2.39 | $2.41 | $2.54 | $2.51 | -$0.02 | -$0.12 |
| Jaya Ballard | $2.33 | $2.48 | $2.60 | $2.91 | -$0.15 | -$0.58 |
| Steel Leaf Champion | $2.24 | $2.38 | $2.54 | $2.78 | -$0.14 | -$0.54 |
| Tempest Djinn | $2.04 | $2.00 | $2.60 | $2.83 | $0.04 | -$0.79 |
Commentary
Dominaria took a 5% hit this week, and the profitability it was hanging on to fades. Teferi took the brunt of the impact, mimicking the same fall it took last month. As I mentioned last week, much of Dominaria's expected value hinges on Teferi, and when he falls, the set suffers. This is why the difference between a good set and a bad set isn't the top few cards, but the value that lies within the middle. The best thing that could happen to Dominaria is for Teferi to fall and his value redistribute within the set. We're starting to see the former. If you're a fan of Dominaria, cross your fingers and hope for the latter.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.96 | $2.02 | $2.09 | $2.24 | -$0.05 | -$0.28 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.20 | $0.13 | $0.14 | $0.14 | $0.07 | $0.06 |
| Total Set Value: | $169.51 | $174.73 | $179.96 | $194.68 | -$5.22 | -$25.17 |
| Booster Box EV: | $84.15 | $87.60 | $93.61 | $101.32 | -$3.45 | -$17.17 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 265% | 262% | 259% | 275% | 2.35% | -10.19% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Azor's Gateway | $4.95 | $5.86 | $7.48 | $11.58 | -$0.91 | -$6.63 |
| The Immortal Sun | $18.34 | $19.14 | $19.91 | $20.65 | -$0.80 | -$2.31 |
| Curious Obsession | $2.19 | $2.69 | $2.83 | $2.96 | -$0.50 | -$0.77 |
| Rekindling Phoenix | $26.33 | $26.79 | $26.02 | $30.43 | -$0.46 | -$4.10 |
| Elenda, the Dusk Rose | $5.96 | $6.33 | $6.37 | $6.73 | -$0.37 | -$0.77 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rekindling Phoenix | $26.33 | $26.79 | $26.02 | $30.43 | -$0.46 | -$4.10 |
| The Immortal Sun | $18.34 | $19.14 | $19.91 | $20.65 | -$0.80 | -$2.31 |
| Jadelight Ranger | $9.72 | $9.97 | $11.49 | $13.03 | -$0.25 | -$3.31 |
| Zacama, Primal Calamity | $8.27 | $8.21 | $8.23 | $8.52 | $0.06 | -$0.25 |
| Twilight Prophet | $7.69 | $8.04 | $8.11 | $8.10 | -$0.35 | -$0.41 |
| Angrath, the Flame-Chained | $6.06 | $6.11 | $5.85 | $5.91 | -$0.05 | $0.15 |
| Elenda, the Dusk Rose | $5.96 | $6.33 | $6.37 | $6.73 | -$0.37 | -$0.77 |
| Ghalta, Primal Hunger | $5.26 | $5.37 | $5.61 | $6.16 | -$0.11 | -$0.90 |
| Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca | $5.21 | $5.24 | $5.03 | $5.21 | -$0.03 | $0.00 |
| Huatli, Radiant Champion | $5.14 | $5.26 | $5.30 | $5.62 | -$0.12 | -$0.48 |
| Azor's Gateway | $4.95 | $5.86 | $7.48 | $11.58 | -$0.91 | -$6.63 |
| Journey to Eternity | $4.66 | $4.61 | $4.66 | $5.09 | $0.05 | -$0.43 |
| Wayward Swordtooth | $4.36 | $4.55 | $4.65 | $4.68 | -$0.19 | -$0.32 |
| Tendershoot Dryad | $3.22 | $3.42 | $3.45 | $3.16 | -$0.20 | $0.06 |
| Etali, Primal Storm | $3.16 | $3.27 | $3.31 | $3.71 | -$0.11 | -$0.55 |
| Warkite Marauder | $3.00 | $2.99 | $3.26 | $2.70 | $0.01 | $0.30 |
| Dire Fleet Daredevil | $2.68 | $2.48 | $2.54 | $2.67 | $0.20 | $0.01 |
| Nezahal, Primal Tide | $2.44 | $2.31 | $2.45 | $2.54 | $0.13 | -$0.10 |
| Polyraptor | $2.39 | $2.28 | $2.38 | $2.41 | $0.11 | -$0.02 |
| Curious Obsession | $2.19 | $2.69 | $2.83 | $2.96 | -$0.50 | -$0.77 |
| Radiant Destiny | $2.11 | $2.46 | $2.94 | $3.12 | -$0.35 | -$1.01 |
Commentary
Rivals' expected value falls close to the above sets, but the lower hit-over-miss is a crucial difference here. With return being right on par with a box's cost, all risk hinges on its reliability. Of course, if we continue to fall, we might soon be looking at reliable losses. Rivals has been a strong set up to this point, so I generally have faith in it not following suit above. I've rather enjoyed talking about profitable sets and not just a few stand out cards.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $2.12 | $2.10 | $2.13 | $2.25 | $0.02 | -$0.13 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.20 | $0.24 | $0.35 | $0.36 | -$0.04 | -$0.16 |
| Total Set Value: | $209.66 | $207.30 | $212.13 | $223.65 | $2.36 | -$13.99 |
| Booster Box EV: | $105.12 | $100.38 | $104.50 | $108.56 | $4.74 | -$3.44 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 262% | 264% | 273% | 280% | -1.3% | -17.36% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Carnage Tyrant | $30.86 | $29.08 | $31.41 | $30.88 | $1.78 | -$0.02 |
| Treasure Map | $7.85 | $6.15 | $4.91 | $4.50 | $1.70 | $3.35 |
| Star of Extinction | $9.09 | $7.44 | $6.86 | $6.90 | $1.65 | $2.19 |
| Vraska, Relic Seeker | $9.81 | $10.57 | $12.24 | $16.50 | -$0.76 | -$6.69 |
| Chart a Course | $1.94 | $2.68 | $2.05 | $1.91 | -$0.74 | $0.03 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 12/06 | 11/29 | 11/22 | 11/15 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Carnage Tyrant | $30.86 | $29.08 | $31.41 | $30.88 | $1.78 | -$0.02 |
| Search for Azcanta | $14.82 | $15.23 | $15.34 | $16.92 | -$0.41 | -$2.10 |
| Vraska's Contempt | $12.75 | $13.45 | $14.73 | $16.08 | -$0.70 | -$3.33 |
| Vraska, Relic Seeker | $9.81 | $10.57 | $12.24 | $16.50 | -$0.76 | -$6.69 |
| Star of Extinction | $9.09 | $7.44 | $6.86 | $6.90 | $1.65 | $2.19 |
| Treasure Map | $7.85 | $6.15 | $4.91 | $4.50 | $1.70 | $3.35 |
| Legion's Landing | $7.66 | $7.78 | $7.63 | $7.62 | -$0.12 | $0.04 |
| Settle the Wreckage | $6.81 | $6.78 | $7.10 | $7.44 | $0.03 | -$0.63 |
| Drowned Catacomb | $6.25 | $6.33 | $6.01 | $6.30 | -$0.08 | -$0.05 |
| Sunpetal Grove | $5.40 | $4.98 | $5.42 | $5.84 | $0.42 | -$0.44 |
| Growing Rites of Itlimoc | $5.25 | $5.35 | $4.82 | $5.54 | -$0.10 | -$0.29 |
| Vanquisher's Banner | $4.70 | $5.08 | $4.88 | $4.96 | -$0.38 | -$0.26 |
| Glacial Fortress | $4.64 | $4.68 | $4.85 | $4.88 | -$0.04 | -$0.24 |
| Dragonskull Summit | $3.73 | $3.50 | $3.61 | $3.77 | $0.23 | -$0.04 |
| Hostage Taker | $2.92 | $2.86 | $2.82 | $2.90 | $0.06 | $0.02 |
| Rootbound Crag | $2.84 | $3.01 | $2.87 | $2.95 | -$0.17 | -$0.11 |
| Vona, Butcher of Magan | $2.75 | $2.81 | $2.72 | $2.78 | -$0.06 | -$0.03 |
| Huatli, Warrior Poet | $2.66 | $2.76 | $2.74 | $2.75 | -$0.10 | -$0.09 |
| Jace, Cunning Castaway | $2.65 | $2.69 | $2.59 | $2.72 | -$0.04 | -$0.07 |
| Siren Stormtamer | $2.62 | $2.59 | $3.37 | $3.63 | $0.03 | -$1.01 |
| Gishath, Sun's Avatar | $2.59 | $2.55 | $2.55 | $2.65 | $0.04 | -$0.06 |
| Field of Ruin | $2.49 | $2.84 | $2.53 | $3.06 | -$0.35 | -$0.57 |
| Tocatli Honor Guard | $2.46 | $2.65 | $2.27 | $2.67 | -$0.19 | -$0.21 |
| Thaumatic Compass | $2.46 | $2.53 | $2.68 | $2.80 | -$0.07 | -$0.34 |
| Primal Amulet | $2.38 | $2.32 | $2.39 | $2.62 | $0.06 | -$0.24 |
| Sorcerous Spyglass | $2.37 | $2.64 | $2.76 | $2.94 | -$0.27 | -$0.57 |
| Ripjaw Raptor | $2.17 | $2.21 | $2.06 | $2.17 | -$0.04 | $0.00 |
Commentary
The determination here is clear and absolute. Ixalan boasts the highest expected value, well exceeding box cost, and the lowest hit-over-miss. It's not only the best set in Standard, its the only set that offers consistent profit. If you're a box flipper, you should be turning through Ixalan boxes as fast as you can. If you're newer to the market game and just considering flipping a box, there's no comparison or debate as to what you should choose. Even with the downturn we've had in the past few weeks, Ixalan remains strong, and offers a rare promise of steady gains. At some point, if people heed my advice enough, the market will start to saturate with Ixalan cards and the set will fall. We're nowhere near there yet, though, so jump in while the water's still warm.
Parting Thoughts...
Every now and then I do a sanity check for exceptional sets, looking at the expected values that others are predicting and comparing them to mine. I do this to double check that something hasn't gone awry, and that I'm not leading you astray with false promises or diminished hopes. After much scouring, I can safely declare that Ixalan is absolutely as strong as I've been saying. There are a couple of outlier sites listing the expected value just under $100, but everyone else is right around the $105 that I calculate. Even if the outliers have some secret Ixalan knowledge that's hidden from the rest of us, we're still looking at an absolutely strong, reliable profit. Ixalan is a practical gold mine. The Threefold Sun has shined its light upon this set, blessing it with financial glory.
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Posted Dec 7, 2018