Magic Market Index for Nov 2nd, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $3.10$3.11$3.04$3.06$0.00$0.07
Buy-A-Box Promo: $18.88$18.88$18.88$18.88$0.00$0.00
Total Set Value: $254.32$254.14$246.86$249.55$0.18$7.28
Booster Box EV: $129.04$129.34$124.95$123.53-$0.30$4.39
Hit Over Miss: 208%200%204%206%8.12%2.05%
Top 5 Movers
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Arclight Phoenix $19.15$12.43$5.20$3.77$6.72$15.38
March of the Multitudes $9.96$11.72$13.06$13.18-$1.76-$3.22
Doom Whisperer $21.94$23.60$22.43$23.44-$1.66-$1.50
Steam Vents $10.35$9.46$8.85$8.59$0.89$1.76
Nullhide Ferox $4.97$5.85$6.36$7.64-$0.88-$2.67
Top Cards
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Doom Whisperer $21.94$23.60$22.43$23.44-$1.66-$1.50
Arclight Phoenix $19.15$12.43$5.20$3.77$6.72$15.38
Assassin's Trophy $17.16$17.82$18.29$18.34-$0.66-$1.18
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $11.62$12.34$13.98$14.36-$0.72-$2.74
Vraska, Golgari Queen $11.33$11.92$11.67$10.03-$0.59$1.30
Steam Vents $10.35$9.46$8.85$8.59$0.89$1.76
March of the Multitudes $9.96$11.72$13.06$13.18-$1.76-$3.22
Risk Factor $9.37$9.19$9.05$9.02$0.18$0.35
Watery Grave $8.56$8.82$8.25$8.30-$0.26$0.26
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $7.88$7.78$7.83$8.39$0.10-$0.51
Sacred Foundry $7.79$8.01$7.81$7.45-$0.22$0.34
Overgrown Tomb $7.32$7.35$7.27$6.97-$0.03$0.35
Temple Garden $5.61$5.57$5.44$5.89$0.04-$0.28
Dream Eater $5.31$5.96$6.45$6.52-$0.65-$1.21
Nullhide Ferox $4.97$5.85$6.36$7.64-$0.88-$2.67
Divine Visitation $4.96$4.99$4.88$4.67-$0.03$0.29
Runaway Steam-Kin $4.88$5.22$4.97$5.29-$0.34-$0.41
Ionize $4.49$4.24$4.28$3.63$0.25$0.86
Knight of Autumn $4.28$4.52$4.23$4.62-$0.24-$0.34
Underrealm Lich $3.93$3.81$3.90$4.07$0.12-$0.14
Lazav, the Multifarious $3.60$4.09$4.11$4.36-$0.49-$0.76
Chromatic Lantern $3.59$3.65$3.51$3.63-$0.06-$0.04
Experimental Frenzy $3.49$3.93$4.23$3.75-$0.44-$0.26
Mission Briefing $3.40$3.73$3.90$4.92-$0.33-$1.52
Expansion // Explosion $3.39$3.01$2.63$0.63$0.38$2.76
Legion Warboss $3.28$3.38$3.44$3.67-$0.10-$0.39
Pelt Collector $3.06$3.33$3.61$5.91-$0.27-$2.85
Niv-Mizzet, Parun $2.95$2.39$1.84$1.45$0.56$1.50
Trostani Discordant $2.83$3.10$2.86$3.02-$0.27-$0.19
Deafening Clarion $2.74$2.14$1.96$1.28$0.60$1.46
Thousand-Year Storm $2.72$2.90$2.59$2.41-$0.18$0.31
Thief of Sanity $2.64$2.64$2.45$2.32$0.00$0.32
Ritual of Soot $2.24$1.87$1.82$1.52$0.37$0.72
 
Commentary
Guilds has finally begun to level off. After an absolutely impressive post-release spike, overall set and box value has remained the same this week. Looking at the cards individually, we see that there's still considerable movement, but the ups and downs have cancelled each other out. This is indicative of a market correction, and a coming retraction. We know that Guilds is over inflated, and that a deflation is coming. Honestly, it should have already happened. There are no guarantees in the market, and especially in market prediction, but everything tells us that the inevitable decline is upon us.

All this talk of the set's unprecedented post-release spike has left Arclight Phoenix's remarkable climb a bit untouched. Although present in some Standard brews, it is its instant stardom in Modern that has skyrocketed this card. Its popularity has spread across many spell-slinging decks, and even lending its name eponymously to some builds. It seems so omnipresent at the moment that any deck running red and more than a few spells has at least considered its inclusion.
Set Overview
Metric 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.72$1.71$1.64$1.48$0.01$0.24
Buy-A-Box Promo: $11.93$13.41$12.78$14.64-$1.48-$2.71
Total Set Value: $182.11$180.02$171.91$154.98$2.09$27.13
Booster Box EV: $73.95$71.69$69.45$62.16$2.26$11.78
Hit Over Miss: 319%314%299%266%5.26%53.33%
Top 5 Movers
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Resplendent Angel $19.58$18.57$18.24$13.35$1.01$6.23
Diamond Mare $1.09$0.40$0.42$0.31$0.69$0.78
Banefire $5.41$4.74$4.17$4.14$0.67$1.27
Crucible of Worlds $13.34$13.63$14.25$14.73-$0.29-$1.39
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.65$3.92$3.69$3.61-$0.27$0.04
Top Cards
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Vivien Reid $23.23$23.03$18.92$10.43$0.20$12.80
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $22.22$22.32$21.10$21.77-$0.10$0.45
Resplendent Angel $19.58$18.57$18.24$13.35$1.01$6.23
Crucible of Worlds $13.34$13.63$14.25$14.73-$0.29-$1.39
Sarkhan, Fireblood $12.61$12.67$11.79$11.02-$0.06$1.59
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $11.21$11.42$10.66$10.90-$0.21$0.31
Scapeshift $7.48$7.44$7.47$7.68$0.04-$0.20
Banefire $5.41$4.74$4.17$4.14$0.67$1.27
Omniscience $4.94$5.01$4.80$4.81-$0.07$0.13
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $4.84$4.97$5.11$4.93-$0.13-$0.09
Cleansing Nova $4.81$4.65$4.53$2.49$0.16$2.32
Thorn Lieutenant $4.69$4.83$4.97$4.32-$0.14$0.37
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.65$3.92$3.69$3.61-$0.27$0.04
Arcades, the Strategist $3.35$3.20$3.16$3.08$0.15$0.27
Stitcher's Supplier $3.02$2.82$2.92$2.61$0.20$0.41
Death Baron $2.57$2.71$2.52$2.68-$0.14-$0.11
Sai, Master Thopterist $2.38$2.61$2.65$2.59-$0.23-$0.21
Chromium, the Mutable $2.06$2.26$1.91$1.70-$0.20$0.36
 
Commentary
Core 2019's movement reflects Guilds, as the whole Standard market has started to level off from its recent boon. If you haven't been flipping boxes for the past two weeks, the window is closing. We're at the summit, almost certainly looking at a coming decline. Sell off what you don't need now, as the overall prices are as high as they will be for months. Look especially to the cards that have spiked recently and have now either plateaued or started a decline. Selling in a week or two won't offer the current returns.
Set Overview
Metric 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.25$2.23$2.22$2.16$0.02$0.09
Buy-A-Box Promo: $2.09$1.68$1.58$1.80$0.41$0.29
Total Set Value: $227.72$226.88$226.61$224.59$0.84$3.13
Booster Box EV: $100.93$98.01$97.79$95.08$2.92$5.85
Hit Over Miss: 370%374%372%381%-4.18%-10.43%
Top 5 Movers
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Karn, Scion of Urza $21.51$23.46$25.36$26.32-$1.95-$4.81
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $49.16$47.26$46.31$46.85$1.90$2.31
History of Benalia $22.32$23.69$23.21$25.36-$1.37-$3.04
Tempest Djinn $2.54$1.52$1.15$0.68$1.02$1.86
Mox Amber $7.41$8.28$8.04$8.58-$0.87-$1.17
Top Cards
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $49.16$47.26$46.31$46.85$1.90$2.31
History of Benalia $22.32$23.69$23.21$25.36-$1.37-$3.04
Karn, Scion of Urza $21.51$23.46$25.36$26.32-$1.95-$4.81
Lyra Dawnbringer $20.79$21.04$22.75$19.52-$0.25$1.27
Sulfur Falls $11.41$10.97$9.53$7.35$0.44$4.06
Mox Amber $7.41$8.28$8.04$8.58-$0.87-$1.17
Woodland Cemetery $6.85$6.87$6.66$5.40-$0.02$1.45
Clifftop Retreat $5.62$5.09$4.83$4.37$0.53$1.25
Goblin Chainwhirler $5.25$5.13$5.16$5.07$0.12$0.18
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $5.17$4.98$4.78$4.28$0.19$0.89
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.87$4.09$4.08$4.25-$0.22-$0.38
Isolated Chapel $3.29$3.26$3.18$3.10$0.03$0.19
Jaya Ballard $3.21$3.33$3.58$3.74-$0.12-$0.53
Hinterland Harbor $3.06$2.92$2.84$2.72$0.14$0.34
Helm of the Host $3.04$3.08$2.88$2.58-$0.04$0.46
Steel Leaf Champion $2.94$3.60$3.43$4.00-$0.66-$1.06
Tempest Djinn $2.54$1.52$1.15$0.68$1.02$1.86
Gilded Lotus $2.51$2.62$2.71$2.84-$0.11-$0.33
Wizard's Lightning $2.29$2.22$2.07$2.12$0.07$0.17
Verix Bladewing $2.20$2.26$2.27$2.42-$0.06-$0.22
 
Commentary
Dominaria didn't see quite the growth of the other sets, so it's more difficult to predict where we'll go. We're still at the highest return level Dominaria has seen in over three months, but we're only barely inflated over cost. Stagnation and declination are equally possible. Hopefully, if Dominaria does retract, it will retract directly from the top. The overall revaluation and redemption of the set wasn't because the top mythics spiked, but because its rares and midpoint climbed. Keeping this growth intact is important for the set's financial future.
Set Overview
Metric 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.26$2.15$2.08$1.99$0.11$0.27
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.16$0.17$0.18$0.19-$0.01-$0.03
Total Set Value: $192.77$180.60$174.10$167.29$12.17$25.48
Booster Box EV: $102.81$95.60$92.29$87.93$7.21$14.88
Hit Over Miss: 268%258%246%234%10.28%34.52%
Top 5 Movers
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
The Immortal Sun $19.12$14.20$12.18$11.32$4.92$7.80
Azor's Gateway $9.25$4.36$4.18$3.63$4.89$5.62
Rekindling Phoenix $28.72$25.75$23.03$21.51$2.97$7.21
Jadelight Ranger $15.57$14.59$12.64$7.62$0.98$7.95
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.33$9.06$9.54$9.50-$0.73-$1.17
Top Cards
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $28.72$25.75$23.03$21.51$2.97$7.21
The Immortal Sun $19.12$14.20$12.18$11.32$4.92$7.80
Jadelight Ranger $15.57$14.59$12.64$7.62$0.98$7.95
Azor's Gateway $9.25$4.36$4.18$3.63$4.89$5.62
Twilight Prophet $8.67$8.46$8.86$8.83$0.21-$0.16
Zacama, Primal Calamity $8.33$9.06$9.54$9.50-$0.73-$1.17
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $6.85$7.09$7.80$8.14-$0.24-$1.29
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $6.83$6.85$6.85$6.79-$0.02$0.04
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $5.83$5.57$4.78$5.49$0.26$0.34
Huatli, Radiant Champion $5.55$5.49$5.90$5.72$0.06-$0.17
Journey to Eternity $5.31$5.78$5.13$6.38-$0.47-$1.07
Wayward Swordtooth $5.30$5.26$5.22$5.16$0.04$0.14
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $5.20$5.16$5.06$5.21$0.04-$0.01
Etali, Primal Storm $3.83$3.93$4.09$4.18-$0.10-$0.35
Radiant Destiny $3.68$4.30$4.25$4.07-$0.62-$0.39
Tendershoot Dryad $3.56$3.80$3.79$3.76-$0.24-$0.20
Curious Obsession $3.21$3.43$2.94$2.51-$0.22$0.70
Polyraptor $2.59$2.61$2.51$2.58-$0.02$0.01
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.52$2.52$2.38$2.50$0.00$0.02
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.49$2.51$2.60$2.62-$0.02-$0.13
Timestream Navigator $2.08$2.21$2.32$2.36-$0.13-$0.28
Warkite Marauder $2.03$1.86$1.68$1.26$0.17$0.77
 
Commentary
Rivals didn't get the memo about the Standard plateau, and just kept on climbing. It's summit will come soon, but there's always time for one last brouhaha. Rivals' miss-over-hit has been growing during this boon, but its $50 miss-value is still high enough to lessen the risk.
Set Overview
Metric 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.35$2.28$2.22$2.13$0.07$0.22
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.30$0.29$0.30$0.31$0.01-$0.01
Total Set Value: $231.37$222.65$216.32$205.37$8.72$26.00
Booster Box EV: $113.04$109.69$107.81$103.84$3.36$9.20
Hit Over Miss: 289%281%274%258%7.27%30.64%
Top 5 Movers
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $27.97$21.48$20.23$19.29$6.49$8.68
Vraska, Relic Seeker $20.58$22.23$19.28$13.32-$1.65$7.26
Star of Extinction $5.76$4.39$4.43$4.09$1.37$1.67
Tocatli Honor Guard $2.21$1.00$0.42$0.26$1.21$1.95
Chart a Course $1.80$1.18$1.15$0.88$0.62$0.92
Top Cards
Card 11/01 10/25 10/20 10/11 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $27.97$21.48$20.23$19.29$6.49$8.68
Search for Azcanta $21.08$21.25$21.78$21.41-$0.17-$0.33
Vraska, Relic Seeker $20.58$22.23$19.28$13.32-$1.65$7.26
Vraska's Contempt $18.10$18.29$17.06$15.52-$0.19$2.58
Settle the Wreckage $7.72$7.75$7.46$7.07-$0.03$0.65
Drowned Catacomb $6.49$6.16$6.45$5.92$0.33$0.57
Legion's Landing $6.16$6.17$5.77$5.32-$0.01$0.84
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $5.93$6.13$6.27$6.41-$0.20-$0.48
Star of Extinction $5.76$4.39$4.43$4.09$1.37$1.67
Sunpetal Grove $5.73$5.69$5.76$5.30$0.04$0.43
Vanquisher's Banner $5.13$5.09$4.75$4.58$0.04$0.55
Glacial Fortress $4.86$4.98$5.00$4.62-$0.12$0.24
Siren Stormtamer $4.80$4.64$4.71$4.25$0.16$0.55
Treasure Map $3.89$3.53$3.60$3.14$0.36$0.75
Field of Ruin $3.40$3.53$3.71$3.91-$0.13-$0.51
Dragonskull Summit $3.38$3.55$3.41$3.43-$0.17-$0.05
Sorcerous Spyglass $3.29$3.42$3.40$3.33-$0.13-$0.04
Rootbound Crag $2.99$2.87$2.87$3.25$0.12-$0.26
Hostage Taker $2.99$3.03$2.96$2.76-$0.04$0.23
Thaumatic Compass $2.94$2.80$2.89$2.78$0.14$0.16
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.90$2.63$2.76$2.78$0.27$0.12
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.82$3.13$2.73$2.73-$0.31$0.09
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.79$2.83$2.68$2.44-$0.04$0.35
Primal Amulet $2.75$2.85$2.67$3.22-$0.10-$0.47
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $2.37$2.58$2.81$2.81-$0.21-$0.44
Ripjaw Raptor $2.35$2.55$2.80$2.85-$0.20-$0.50
Shapers' Sanctuary $2.27$2.22$2.11$2.29$0.05-$0.02
Tocatli Honor Guard $2.21$1.00$0.42$0.26$1.21$1.95
 
Commentary
Although Ixalan does see overall gains this week, a more detailed look at the table and trends shows that Ixalan is also beginning to crest. The bulk of gains are limited to a few individual cards, with the rest of the set generally declining only slightly less. By next week Ixalan should also start to plateau, heading towards a decline just behind most sets.

Parting Thoughts...

If you're late to the party and didn't take the box-flipping advice from weeks past, there's still a small window of opportunity if you act fast. We're most likely at the apogee of this spike, with a market correction heading our way. While that means prices will begin falling soon, it also means that profit potential is still higher than usual. Even if your sales come late, they'll be higher in the next two weeks than they will be in a month. The quicker you can turn a box right now, the higher the profit margin will be, so be fast. If you don't have the capital and broad listings to let some cards sit, undercut the average price slightly to encourage throughput. This is especially true if you're also wanting to build up a collection, as getting a full return and still keeping decent cards is more possible now than it has — or will be — for some time.

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