Magic Market Index for October 12th, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $3.06$2.81$2.92$3.10$0.24-$0.11
Buy-A-Box Promo: $18.88$18.88$18.88$18.88$0.00$0.00
Total Set Value: $249.59$229.30$245.13$275.94$20.29-$15.83
Booster Box EV: $123.53$110.83$116.11$130.80$12.70-$5.28
Hit Over Miss: 206%199%206%191%6.73%14.33%
Top 5 Movers
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Doom Whisperer $23.44$18.87$17.76$12.60$4.57$10.84
Risk Factor $9.02$4.91$2.44$3.20$4.11$5.82
March of the Multitudes $13.18$9.46$5.27$5.90$3.72$7.28
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $14.36$10.87$10.67$9.39$3.49$4.97
Experimental Frenzy $3.75$1.63$0.72$0.98$2.12$2.77
Top Cards
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Doom Whisperer $23.44$18.87$17.76$12.60$4.57$10.84
Assassin's Trophy $18.34$19.29$24.33$24.60-$0.95-$6.26
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $14.36$10.87$10.67$9.39$3.49$4.97
March of the Multitudes $13.18$9.46$5.27$5.90$3.72$7.28
Vraska, Golgari Queen $10.03$10.59$12.92$13.64-$0.56-$3.61
Risk Factor $9.02$4.91$2.44$3.20$4.11$5.82
Steam Vents $8.59$8.04$7.99$8.20$0.55$0.39
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $8.39$8.61$10.02$11.13-$0.22-$2.74
Watery Grave $8.30$7.65$8.10$8.31$0.65-$0.01
Nullhide Ferox $7.64$7.96$7.93$7.89-$0.32-$0.25
Sacred Foundry $7.45$7.31$7.34$7.86$0.14-$0.41
Overgrown Tomb $6.97$6.38$6.59$6.94$0.59$0.03
Dream Eater $6.52$6.34$2.96$3.18$0.18$3.34
Pelt Collector $5.91$7.58$2.63$2.75-$1.67$3.16
Temple Garden $5.89$5.78$5.69$6.01$0.11-$0.12
Runaway Steam-Kin $5.29$4.50$2.98$1.17$0.79$4.12
Mission Briefing $4.92$5.78$8.13$8.35-$0.86-$3.43
Divine Visitation $4.67$4.89$6.56$9.16-$0.22-$4.49
Knight of Autumn $4.62$4.36$4.37$4.56$0.26$0.06
Lazav, the Multifarious $4.36$4.78$6.10$6.91-$0.42-$2.55
Underrealm Lich $4.07$3.97$4.62$4.29$0.10-$0.22
Arclight Phoenix $3.77$2.63$1.93$2.53$1.14$1.24
Experimental Frenzy $3.75$1.63$0.72$0.98$2.12$2.77
Legion Warboss $3.67$3.33$3.23$3.26$0.34$0.41
Ionize $3.63$2.18$2.47$1.94$1.45$1.69
Chromatic Lantern $3.63$3.71$4.23$3.90-$0.08-$0.27
Trostani Discordant $3.02$2.69$2.75$4.19$0.33-$1.17
Thousand-Year Storm $2.41$2.18$2.69$4.34$0.23-$1.93
Thief of Sanity $2.32$1.89$1.82$1.95$0.43$0.37
 
Commentary
Guilds bounces right out of its post-preorder decline and gains an incredible 10% out of nowhere. This is usually the cooling off period, but the metagame is still trying to find itself, and hype is a powerful force. We're still very inflated, and the set will undoubtedly decline soon, but as this week shows, that doesn't mean a few key cards won't still climb.

Two of those potential key cards are Risk Factor and Experimental Frenzy. Although it took a couple weeks for them to catch on, once they did, they became overnight staples. The card drawing engine that these two create has become the new core of sligh. All it'll take for these two to climb further is for any accompanying decks to land a spot in the top, and it looks very likely that it'll happen.
Set Overview
Metric 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.48$1.33$1.27$1.31$0.15$0.17
Buy-A-Box Promo: $14.64$15.12$15.02$18.23-$0.48-$3.59
Total Set Value: $154.98$141.38$135.05$138.56$13.60$16.42
Booster Box EV: $62.16$55.42$52.62$54.74$6.75$7.42
Hit Over Miss: 266%262%275%271%4.19%-5.02%
Top 5 Movers
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Resplendent Angel $13.35$10.13$8.84$8.45$3.22$4.90
Banefire $4.14$2.31$1.50$1.35$1.83$2.79
Vivien Reid $10.43$8.75$6.50$6.68$1.68$3.75
Thorn Lieutenant $4.32$2.67$1.78$1.83$1.65$2.49
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $10.90$9.59$8.11$7.55$1.31$3.35
Top Cards
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $21.77$21.62$22.58$22.45$0.15-$0.68
Crucible of Worlds $14.73$14.10$14.37$14.46$0.63$0.27
Resplendent Angel $13.35$10.13$8.84$8.45$3.22$4.90
Sarkhan, Fireblood $11.02$11.14$11.74$12.68-$0.12-$1.66
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $10.90$9.59$8.11$7.55$1.31$3.35
Vivien Reid $10.43$8.75$6.50$6.68$1.68$3.75
Scapeshift $7.68$7.71$7.89$8.18-$0.03-$0.50
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $4.93$5.16$5.74$5.96-$0.23-$1.03
Omniscience $4.81$4.62$4.30$4.11$0.19$0.70
Thorn Lieutenant $4.32$2.67$1.78$1.83$1.65$2.49
Banefire $4.14$2.31$1.50$1.35$1.83$2.79
Liliana, Untouched by Death $3.61$3.72$4.15$4.64-$0.11-$1.03
Arcades, the Strategist $3.08$3.14$3.37$3.64-$0.06-$0.56
Death Baron $2.68$2.66$2.64$2.69$0.02-$0.01
Stitcher's Supplier $2.61$2.05$1.92$2.07$0.56$0.54
Sai, Master Thopterist $2.59$2.70$2.95$3.20-$0.11-$0.61
Cleansing Nova $2.49$1.91$1.61$1.63$0.58$0.86
Supreme Phantom $2.10$2.17$2.10$2.38-$0.07-$0.28
 
Commentary
Guilds was not alone in its gains this week, as Core 2019 also climbs 10%. This is a welcome sight, as the set has been performing poorly since its release. Core sets are much more fickle than regular expansions, but any regular price booster box that averages less than a $60 return is abysmal.

Banefire is the main highlight here. It is highly inflated at the moment, and offers a good opportunity for selling into the hype. This is its fourth printing, with previous versions having all stayed under $2 for some time. While Standard play can absolutely increase a card's price, its still over twice its previously-printed counterparts, and there's no good reason for this disparity. Sell what you don't need; it might not drop all the way back to $1.50, but it'll still headed towards a sharp decline.
Set Overview
Metric 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.16$1.93$1.78$1.77$0.23$0.39
Buy-A-Box Promo: $1.80$2.07$2.26$2.34-$0.27-$0.54
Total Set Value: $224.59$203.90$187.17$185.86$20.69$38.73
Booster Box EV: $95.08$84.30$76.59$76.83$10.78$18.25
Hit Over Miss: 381%395%383%394%-14.07%-13.35%
Top 5 Movers
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Lyra Dawnbringer $19.52$13.27$12.14$12.70$6.25$6.82
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $46.85$43.33$44.15$45.27$3.52$1.58
Sulfur Falls $7.35$5.38$4.65$4.67$1.97$2.68
History of Benalia $25.36$23.67$11.40$10.41$1.69$14.95
Clifftop Retreat $4.37$2.85$2.06$1.83$1.52$2.54
Top Cards
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $46.85$43.33$44.15$45.27$3.52$1.58
Karn, Scion of Urza $26.32$26.31$26.91$26.66$0.01-$0.34
History of Benalia $25.36$23.67$11.40$10.41$1.69$14.95
Lyra Dawnbringer $19.52$13.27$12.14$12.70$6.25$6.82
Mox Amber $8.58$9.40$10.10$9.71-$0.82-$1.13
Sulfur Falls $7.35$5.38$4.65$4.67$1.97$2.68
Woodland Cemetery $5.40$4.63$4.24$3.95$0.77$1.45
Goblin Chainwhirler $5.07$4.18$3.89$3.87$0.89$1.20
Clifftop Retreat $4.37$2.85$2.06$1.83$1.52$2.54
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $4.28$2.97$2.68$2.55$1.31$1.73
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $4.25$3.98$3.90$3.53$0.27$0.72
Steel Leaf Champion $4.00$3.98$3.51$3.73$0.02$0.27
Jaya Ballard $3.74$3.63$3.72$3.79$0.11-$0.05
Isolated Chapel $3.10$3.10$2.98$2.90$0.00$0.20
Gilded Lotus $2.84$2.85$2.74$2.79-$0.01$0.05
Hinterland Harbor $2.72$2.63$2.77$2.59$0.09$0.13
Helm of the Host $2.58$2.11$2.11$2.07$0.47$0.51
Verix Bladewing $2.42$2.45$2.68$2.68-$0.03-$0.26
Wizard's Lightning $2.12$1.98$1.91$1.81$0.14$0.31
 
Commentary
Dominaria has had a rough road, but it has been redeeming itself more and more every week. We're now to the point that we can take the set off of the "stay-away" list, and start really looking at potential box opening returns. Its pricing is still very top heavy, with almost a 400% hit-over-miss, but even that has been on the decline. Profit and good returns are still in the luck-dependent zone, but a box that misses now has over one and a half times as much value as it did a month ago. Perhaps Dominaria was simply falling behind for a more dramatic victory, or perhaps it just needed a new meta to shine. Regardless of the reason, we're out of the hole and heading toward a solid set worthy of attention.
Set Overview
Metric 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.99$1.87$1.82$1.81$0.12$0.18
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.19$0.18$0.18$0.18$0.01$0.01
Total Set Value: $167.29$158.14$153.39$154.28$9.15$13.01
Booster Box EV: $87.93$81.05$77.25$77.34$6.88$10.59
Hit Over Miss: 234%232%237%239%2%-5.57%
Top 5 Movers
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Journey to Eternity $6.38$3.85$2.02$2.02$2.53$4.36
Jadelight Ranger $7.62$5.66$5.24$4.96$1.96$2.66
Rekindling Phoenix $21.51$19.80$20.01$20.98$1.71$0.53
Curious Obsession $2.51$1.54$0.91$0.87$0.97$1.64
The Immortal Sun $11.32$10.70$10.66$10.23$0.62$1.09
Top Cards
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $21.51$19.80$20.01$20.98$1.71$0.53
The Immortal Sun $11.32$10.70$10.66$10.23$0.62$1.09
Zacama, Primal Calamity $9.50$10.05$9.71$10.02-$0.55-$0.52
Twilight Prophet $8.83$8.94$8.23$8.12-$0.11$0.71
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $8.14$8.73$8.61$8.87-$0.59-$0.73
Jadelight Ranger $7.62$5.66$5.24$4.96$1.96$2.66
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $6.79$6.94$7.04$6.90-$0.15-$0.11
Journey to Eternity $6.38$3.85$2.02$2.02$2.53$4.36
Huatli, Radiant Champion $5.72$5.30$5.16$5.26$0.42$0.46
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $5.49$5.45$5.56$5.64$0.04-$0.15
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $5.21$5.42$5.28$5.29-$0.21-$0.08
Wayward Swordtooth $5.16$5.00$5.04$5.03$0.16$0.13
Etali, Primal Storm $4.18$4.18$4.29$4.17$0.00$0.01
Radiant Destiny $4.07$3.79$3.39$3.18$0.28$0.89
Tendershoot Dryad $3.76$3.60$3.65$3.75$0.16$0.01
Azor's Gateway $3.63$3.25$3.25$3.46$0.38$0.17
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.62$2.48$2.51$2.75$0.14-$0.13
Polyraptor $2.58$2.66$2.51$2.52-$0.08$0.06
Curious Obsession $2.51$1.54$0.91$0.87$0.97$1.64
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.50$2.40$2.44$2.35$0.10$0.15
Timestream Navigator $2.36$2.18$2.29$2.32$0.18$0.04
 
Commentary
Another set, another week of growth. As each deck tries slightly new strategies or card combos, they create a ripple throughout the rest of the metagame as their opponents adapt. These adaptations then cause their own ripples, creating rather turbulent waters. Add in giant splashes of entirely new decks that come with rotation, and we're going to be a on a roller coaster until everything settles down.
Set Overview
Metric 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.13$1.97$1.91$1.90$0.16$0.23
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.31$0.25$0.20$0.17$0.06$0.14
Total Set Value: $205.37$188.85$182.88$181.23$16.52$24.14
Booster Box EV: $103.84$95.43$90.73$90.14$8.41$13.70
Hit Over Miss: 258%254%256%254%3.61%4%
Top 5 Movers
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Vraska, Relic Seeker $13.32$9.88$8.90$8.29$3.44$5.03
Star of Extinction $4.09$1.82$1.87$1.87$2.27$2.22
Vraska's Contempt $15.52$14.03$13.45$13.09$1.49$2.43
Legion's Landing $5.32$4.25$3.27$3.17$1.07$2.15
Vanquisher's Banner $4.58$3.57$3.09$3.42$1.01$1.16
Top Cards
Card 10/11 10/04 09/27 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Search for Azcanta $21.41$20.94$20.47$20.86$0.47$0.55
Carnage Tyrant $19.29$18.97$19.04$18.40$0.32$0.89
Vraska's Contempt $15.52$14.03$13.45$13.09$1.49$2.43
Vraska, Relic Seeker $13.32$9.88$8.90$8.29$3.44$5.03
Settle the Wreckage $7.07$6.37$6.22$6.34$0.70$0.73
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $6.41$5.88$5.63$5.50$0.53$0.91
Drowned Catacomb $5.92$5.41$5.13$4.88$0.51$1.04
Legion's Landing $5.32$4.25$3.27$3.17$1.07$2.15
Sunpetal Grove $5.30$4.57$4.33$4.33$0.73$0.97
Glacial Fortress $4.62$4.69$4.78$4.91-$0.07-$0.29
Vanquisher's Banner $4.58$3.57$3.09$3.42$1.01$1.16
Siren Stormtamer $4.25$3.55$2.82$2.93$0.70$1.32
Star of Extinction $4.09$1.82$1.87$1.87$2.27$2.22
Field of Ruin $3.91$3.76$3.72$3.38$0.15$0.53
Dragonskull Summit $3.43$3.63$3.32$3.40-$0.20$0.03
Sorcerous Spyglass $3.33$2.97$3.09$3.02$0.36$0.31
Rootbound Crag $3.25$3.31$3.17$3.31-$0.06-$0.06
Primal Amulet $3.22$2.77$2.18$1.95$0.45$1.27
Treasure Map $3.14$3.00$3.18$3.59$0.14-$0.45
Ripjaw Raptor $2.85$2.78$3.01$2.94$0.07-$0.09
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $2.81$2.82$2.83$2.91-$0.01-$0.10
Thaumatic Compass $2.78$2.58$2.47$2.57$0.20$0.21
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.78$2.74$2.94$2.95$0.04-$0.17
Hostage Taker $2.76$2.76$2.87$2.67$0.00$0.09
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.73$2.90$2.77$2.84-$0.17-$0.11
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.44$2.28$2.26$2.30$0.16$0.14
Shapers' Sanctuary $2.29$2.17$2.37$2.04$0.12$0.25
 
Commentary
Even Ixalan, already the strongest set we've seen in years, further increases its holdings. Its expected return now well exceeds cost, all the while still boasting a very low hit-over-miss.

The core strength here is in its rares, which carry the set. A box that doesn't even contain a mythic, for example, still averages a full return on investment. This is combined with a powerful sleigh of uncommons, of which 8 break the $0.50 marker. Lead by my namesake Field of Ruin, now close to $4, almost every box has at least $10 in uncommon value. Ixalan has an unbreakable armada of worth that not even a rotation can touch.

Parting Thoughts...

This week saw strong positive gains across every set in Standard. While this is always a welcome sight, beware of the inevitable market adjustment that will cause less-played cards to fall. There is an equilibrium at play, with each set having its own market cap that represents a soft ceiling. As some cards rise in price, others have to fall to maintain the balance. We've seen an impressive week of growth, which means the cards that are under performing will soon see a strong decline. This is the perfect opportunity to take stock of what you have, analyze the what is and isn't a contender in the new meta, and sell off everything that won't make the cut. Any lackluster card that's overpriced will soon have its floor fall out under it.

0

Comments

Posts Quoted:
Reply
Clear All Quotes