Magic Market Index for Sep 28th, 2018

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This weekly article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print, and offers insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. This weekly article series covers all expansion sets and masterpiece series sets in Standard, from the time of their prerelease to the time of their rotation out of Standard. Promotional sets, special sets, pack foils, and non-set releases are not covered.

All pricing is based on TCGPlayer's Market Price.


Set Overview
Metric 09/27 09/20 09/20 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $2.92$3.10$0.00$0.00-$0.18$0.00
Buy-A-Box Promo: $18.88$18.88$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00
Total Set Value: $245.13$275.96$0.00$0.00-$30.83$0.00
Booster Box EV: $116.11$130.80$0.00$0.00-$14.69$0.00
Hit Over Miss: 206%191%0%0%15.15%206.4%
Top 5 Movers
Card 09/27 09/20 09/20 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Doom Whisperer $17.76$12.60$5.16
Mnemonic Betrayal $3.19$5.84-$2.65
Divine Visitation $6.56$9.16-$2.60
Chance for Glory $2.10$4.28-$2.18
Runaway Steam-Kin $2.98$1.17$1.81
Top Cards
Card 09/27 09/20 09/20 09/20 ± Week ± Month
Assassin's Trophy $24.33$24.60-$0.27
Doom Whisperer $17.76$12.60$5.16
Vraska, Golgari Queen $12.92$13.64-$0.72
Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice $10.67$9.39$1.28
Ral, Izzet Viceroy $10.02$11.13-$1.11
Mission Briefing $8.13$8.35-$0.22
Watery Grave $8.10$8.31-$0.21
Steam Vents $7.99$8.20-$0.21
Nullhide Ferox $7.93$7.89$0.04
Sacred Foundry $7.34$7.86-$0.52
Overgrown Tomb $6.59$6.94-$0.35
Divine Visitation $6.56$9.16-$2.60
Lazav, the Multifarious $6.10$6.91-$0.81
Temple Garden $5.69$6.01-$0.32
March of the Multitudes $5.27$5.90-$0.63
Underrealm Lich $4.62$4.29$0.33
Knight of Autumn $4.37$4.56-$0.19
Chromatic Lantern $4.23$3.90$0.33
Legion Warboss $3.23$3.26-$0.03
Mnemonic Betrayal $3.19$5.84-$2.65
Tajic, Legion's Edge $3.04$2.86$0.18
Runaway Steam-Kin $2.98$1.17$1.81
Dream Eater $2.96$3.18-$0.22
Trostani Discordant $2.75$4.19-$1.44
Thousand-Year Storm $2.69$4.34-$1.65
Pelt Collector $2.63$2.75-$0.12
Ionize $2.47$1.94$0.53
Mausoleum Secrets $2.45$3.36-$0.91
Risk Factor $2.44$3.20-$0.76
Unmoored Ego $2.14$2.55-$0.41
Chance for Glory $2.10$4.28-$2.18
 
Commentary
Although Assassin's Trophy remains the top card of the set, Doom Whisperer is this week's biggest winner and the card to watch. He's angling to be a finisher in several current brews, including Golgari Midrange, Dimir Surveil, Grixis Midrange, and all the mashups in-between. Having a strong presence in multiple brews bodes well for him, as it directly gives him a much better chance of landing in what will eventual become one of Standard's new top decks. If more than one of these decks survive to become a meta champion, his price will only be compounded.

A much quieter card to watch is Swiftblade Vindicator. Currently at $1.50, she has yet to grace our tables, but that only multiplies her potential. If any form of Boros makes the cut, they are highly likely to have a playset of Swiftblade main deck, regardless of the build that lands. Whether the buffs are from Aurelia, Tajic, or Ajani, she doubles them easily and slides right in. If Boros lands, she'll climb, and if it stands strong, she'll spike.
Set Overview
Metric 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.27$1.31$1.34$1.32-$0.04-$0.05
Buy-A-Box Promo: $15.02$18.23$18.55$21.56-$3.21-$6.54
Total Set Value: $135.05$138.56$141.19$139.97-$3.51-$4.92
Booster Box EV: $52.62$54.74$54.28$53.47-$2.12-$0.85
Hit Over Miss: 275%271%268%271%4.13%3.88%
Top 5 Movers
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Sarkhan, Fireblood $11.74$12.68$12.35$11.73-$0.94$0.01
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $8.11$7.55$7.45$7.04$0.56$1.07
Liliana, Untouched by Death $4.15$4.64$5.26$5.48-$0.49-$1.33
Chromium, the Mutable $1.77$2.17$2.18$2.38-$0.40-$0.61
Resplendent Angel $8.84$8.45$8.63$8.19$0.39$0.65
Top Cards
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Nicol Bolas, the Ravager $22.58$22.45$22.42$23.11$0.13-$0.53
Crucible of Worlds $14.37$14.46$14.31$14.16-$0.09$0.21
Sarkhan, Fireblood $11.74$12.68$12.35$11.73-$0.94$0.01
Resplendent Angel $8.84$8.45$8.63$8.19$0.39$0.65
Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants $8.11$7.55$7.45$7.04$0.56$1.07
Scapeshift $7.89$8.18$8.30$8.44-$0.29-$0.55
Vivien Reid $6.50$6.68$6.34$5.95-$0.18$0.55
Tezzeret, Artifice Master $5.74$5.96$6.66$6.77-$0.22-$1.03
Omniscience $4.30$4.11$4.34$4.35$0.19-$0.05
Liliana, Untouched by Death $4.15$4.64$5.26$5.48-$0.49-$1.33
Arcades, the Strategist $3.37$3.64$3.83$4.11-$0.27-$0.74
Sai, Master Thopterist $2.95$3.20$3.30$3.21-$0.25-$0.26
Death Baron $2.64$2.69$2.87$2.76-$0.05-$0.12
Supreme Phantom $2.10$2.38$2.30$2.52-$0.28-$0.42
 
Commentary
Ajani and Resplendent Angel are this weeks winners in Core 2019, and they show a strong trend: Wx Aggro is on the rise. Current Wx Aggro brews include almost every two-color white combination, with a wide array of possibilities, but most builds do have at least these two cards in common. Ajani has been a mid-tier planeswalker until recently, but he could easily become a contender if any of his brews hold, and strong planeswalkers demand a strong price.
Set Overview
Metric 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.78$1.77$1.72$1.73$0.01$0.05
Buy-A-Box Promo: $2.26$2.34$1.98$2.14-$0.08$0.12
Total Set Value: $187.17$185.86$180.93$183.73$1.31$3.44
Booster Box EV: $76.59$76.83$72.12$73.85-$0.25$2.74
Hit Over Miss: 383%394%403%403%-10.41%-19.49%
Top 5 Movers
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $44.15$45.27$44.67$44.76-$1.12-$0.61
History of Benalia $11.40$10.41$9.16$9.30$0.99$2.10
Lyra Dawnbringer $12.14$12.70$11.66$11.99-$0.56$0.15
Mox Amber $10.10$9.71$9.92$9.89$0.39$0.21
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.90$3.53$2.92$2.34$0.37$1.56
Top Cards
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $44.15$45.27$44.67$44.76-$1.12-$0.61
Karn, Scion of Urza $26.91$26.66$26.55$27.34$0.25-$0.43
Lyra Dawnbringer $12.14$12.70$11.66$11.99-$0.56$0.15
History of Benalia $11.40$10.41$9.16$9.30$0.99$2.10
Mox Amber $10.10$9.71$9.92$9.89$0.39$0.21
Sulfur Falls $4.65$4.67$4.33$4.27-$0.02$0.38
Woodland Cemetery $4.24$3.95$3.73$3.30$0.29$0.94
Muldrotha, the Gravetide $3.90$3.53$2.92$2.34$0.37$1.56
Goblin Chainwhirler $3.89$3.87$3.83$3.59$0.02$0.30
Jaya Ballard $3.72$3.79$3.70$3.64-$0.07$0.08
Steel Leaf Champion $3.51$3.73$3.76$3.77-$0.22-$0.26
Isolated Chapel $2.98$2.90$2.80$2.79$0.08$0.19
Hinterland Harbor $2.77$2.59$2.53$2.45$0.18$0.32
Gilded Lotus $2.74$2.79$2.75$2.76-$0.05-$0.02
Shalai, Voice of Plenty $2.68$2.55$2.51$2.39$0.13$0.29
Verix Bladewing $2.68$2.68$2.33$2.66$0.00$0.02
Helm of the Host $2.11$2.07$1.85$2.06$0.04$0.05
Clifftop Retreat $2.06$1.83$1.74$1.49$0.23$0.57
Multani, Yavimaya's Avatar $2.01$1.94$1.97$1.92$0.07$0.09
 
Commentary
Teferi's momentum is finally stalling, as he takes his first real dip in three months. The shift in Standard is beginning, and his reign is in question. Guilds of Ravnica didn't contain the color-aligned Azorius guild, offering other control combinations instead, and that's added a bit of pressure to shift away from white-blue. He very well might trudge through the rotation and remain an all-star, but if he can't, he will begin a slow trek downward. Azorius returns in Ravnica Allegiance, however, so if he does start a decline, eye him closely. There's an extremely strong chance that even if WUx falls out of favor for now, it will return after the new year — and bring Teferi's power back with it.
Set Overview
Metric 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.82$1.81$1.82$1.85$0.00-$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.18$0.18$0.17$0.16$0.00$0.02
Total Set Value: $153.39$154.28$155.68$158.38-$0.89-$4.99
Booster Box EV: $77.25$77.34$78.01$79.44-$0.08-$2.19
Hit Over Miss: 237%239%238%244%-2.52%-6.95%
Top 5 Movers
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $20.01$20.98$21.48$22.00-$0.97-$1.99
The Immortal Sun $10.66$10.23$10.77$11.17$0.43-$0.51
Zacama, Primal Calamity $9.71$10.02$9.88$9.87-$0.31-$0.16
Arch of Orazca $1.33$1.62$1.65$1.68-$0.29-$0.35
Jadelight Ranger $5.24$4.96$4.84$4.87$0.28$0.37
Top Cards
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rekindling Phoenix $20.01$20.98$21.48$22.00-$0.97-$1.99
The Immortal Sun $10.66$10.23$10.77$11.17$0.43-$0.51
Zacama, Primal Calamity $9.71$10.02$9.88$9.87-$0.31-$0.16
Ghalta, Primal Hunger $8.61$8.87$8.33$8.91-$0.26-$0.30
Twilight Prophet $8.23$8.12$8.29$7.84$0.11$0.39
Elenda, the Dusk Rose $7.04$6.90$6.89$6.95$0.14$0.09
Angrath, the Flame-Chained $5.56$5.64$5.73$5.88-$0.08-$0.32
Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca $5.28$5.29$5.37$5.40-$0.01-$0.12
Jadelight Ranger $5.24$4.96$4.84$4.87$0.28$0.37
Huatli, Radiant Champion $5.16$5.26$5.00$5.14-$0.10$0.02
Wayward Swordtooth $5.04$5.03$5.06$5.17$0.01-$0.13
Etali, Primal Storm $4.29$4.17$4.07$4.37$0.12-$0.08
Tendershoot Dryad $3.65$3.75$3.78$3.72-$0.10-$0.07
Radiant Destiny $3.39$3.18$3.26$3.23$0.21$0.16
Azor's Gateway $3.25$3.46$3.46$3.71-$0.21-$0.46
Dire Fleet Daredevil $2.51$2.75$2.69$2.42-$0.24$0.09
Polyraptor $2.51$2.52$2.65$2.76-$0.01-$0.25
Nezahal, Primal Tide $2.44$2.35$2.19$2.29$0.09$0.15
Timestream Navigator $2.29$2.32$2.32$2.38-$0.03-$0.09
Journey to Eternity $2.02$2.02$1.86$1.88$0.00$0.14
Trapjaw Tyrant $2.01$1.98$1.97$1.91$0.03$0.10
 
Commentary
Rekindling Phoenix has had one of the most back and forth price trends of any card I can remember. If we take a step back and look at the overall trend, however, it's been declining for months. After every dip it bounces back, but often falls just short of it's pre-dip price. This has repeated enough times that it has lost a quarter of the value it once had. The new rotation has not agreed with it, either, as it has taken some of its sharpest dives these past few weeks.

The rest of the set holds strong, seeing almost no overall movement this week. The new Standard is much smaller than before, and even with all eyes upon Guilds of Ravnica, the power held within Rivals is not fading.
Set Overview
Metric 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Rare Slot Average: $1.91$1.90$1.86$1.87$0.01$0.04
Buy-A-Box Promo: $0.20$0.17$0.19$0.17$0.03$0.03
Total Set Value: $182.88$181.23$177.08$176.88$1.65$6.00
Booster Box EV: $90.73$90.14$87.24$86.42$0.59$4.31
Hit Over Miss: 256%254%249%251%1.61%4.88%
Top 5 Movers
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Carnage Tyrant $19.04$18.40$17.48$16.81$0.64$2.23
Vraska, Relic Seeker $8.90$8.29$7.71$7.59$0.61$1.31
Treasure Map $3.18$3.59$3.36$3.69-$0.41-$0.51
Search for Azcanta $20.47$20.86$19.29$19.77-$0.39$0.70
Vraska's Contempt $13.45$13.09$12.95$13.47$0.36-$0.02
Top Cards
Card 09/27 09/20 09/13 09/06 ± Week ± Month
Search for Azcanta $20.47$20.86$19.29$19.77-$0.39$0.70
Carnage Tyrant $19.04$18.40$17.48$16.81$0.64$2.23
Vraska's Contempt $13.45$13.09$12.95$13.47$0.36-$0.02
Vraska, Relic Seeker $8.90$8.29$7.71$7.59$0.61$1.31
Settle the Wreckage $6.22$6.34$6.43$6.36-$0.12-$0.14
Growing Rites of Itlimoc $5.63$5.50$5.45$5.47$0.13$0.16
Drowned Catacomb $5.13$4.88$4.69$4.92$0.25$0.21
Glacial Fortress $4.78$4.91$5.05$5.06-$0.13-$0.28
Sunpetal Grove $4.33$4.33$4.23$3.75$0.00$0.58
Field of Ruin $3.72$3.38$3.17$2.81$0.34$0.91
Dragonskull Summit $3.32$3.40$3.26$3.12-$0.08$0.20
Legion's Landing $3.27$3.17$2.87$2.92$0.10$0.35
Treasure Map $3.18$3.59$3.36$3.69-$0.41-$0.51
Rootbound Crag $3.17$3.31$3.15$3.24-$0.14-$0.07
Vanquisher's Banner $3.09$3.42$3.49$3.48-$0.33-$0.39
Sorcerous Spyglass $3.09$3.02$3.03$3.17$0.07-$0.08
Ripjaw Raptor $3.01$2.94$2.82$2.78$0.07$0.23
Huatli, Warrior Poet $2.94$2.95$2.66$2.79-$0.01$0.15
Hostage Taker $2.87$2.67$2.53$2.48$0.20$0.39
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $2.83$2.91$2.92$3.12-$0.08-$0.29
Siren Stormtamer $2.82$2.93$2.87$2.74-$0.11$0.08
Jace, Cunning Castaway $2.77$2.84$2.80$2.94-$0.07-$0.17
Thaumatic Compass $2.47$2.57$2.69$2.71-$0.10-$0.24
Shapers' Sanctuary $2.37$2.04$2.23$2.25$0.33$0.12
Vona, Butcher of Magan $2.26$2.30$2.30$2.16-$0.04$0.10
Primal Amulet $2.18$1.95$2.10$1.97$0.23$0.21
 
Commentary
Ixalan appreciates further this week, seeing gains spread throughout the set. There is such a flurry of minor changes that they easily obscure anything that might have been of note. No new trend has identified itself yet, and much of this could easily be random fluctuations of unremarkable notions. Regardless, this set remains the worthiest box-buying set we've seen in a long time, even adding more potential this week.

Parting Thoughts...

Right now, every card price is contingent on how the card will do after the dust settles and the new Standard metagame is realized. This new metagame will not unfold overnight. For all those who believe they have already found their new deck, many will abandon their current brew for something anew, and almost all will at least tune it as things unfold. The most important aspect to look for is a card that is common across multiple brews. As the brews and variations condense into a new meta, the cards that are shared across decks are the most likely to survive and become staples in the top decks. Doom Whisperer is a great example of this, as at least one of the decks packing him is sure to come out as a top challenger.

Decks that existed before rotation can be a good place to start, but remember that half of the card pool has changed. Decks will likewise have to change and adapt, even beyond replacing cards that were lost. Key cards from previous builds won't necessarily make it through. They can easily get tossed aside for something more adept to the new format. Again, look for cards that are both in new brews and old deck adaptations. These are the cards that have the highest chance of maintaining their power.

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