Box Variance
As we look at any given set and its overall value, I regularly discuss the variance that exists between boxes. While a booster box's expected value shows the averaged value that you'll get over a multitude of boxes, it can often be misleading — especially with top-heavy sets that exceed normal deviation. Expected value is a great appraisal for several dozen boxes, but what about when we're looking at only a few boxes? The actual return on investment can be considerably different from the expected value. This is where box variance is an extremely important value to keep in mind. I've talked about this many times, but it's never had a real representation on our tables. This week we're going to fix that, and add a value that can help illustrate the variance.
Quantifying the Variance: Hit-Over-Miss
We know there are boxes that hit all the great cards, and boxes that miss all the great cards, and plenty of boxes in-between. Trying to quantify the variance in a meaningful and understandable metric is quite difficult, especially if we try to stick with traditional variation metrics. Standard deviation, quartiles, and interquartiles can often be more unintelligible than they are helpful, especially to anyone unfamiliar with them.
It is, specifically, the two ends of the hit-and-miss spectrum that we need to look at, and the difference that lies between them. This will show us the full range of variation that's possible between boxes. A spread value can illustrate this, but it lacks context unless we also display the hit and miss values that it represents. Instead, if we calculate the set's hit value and the set's miss value, we can represent how much variance exists by dividing them. This will give us an easy to understand value, that is quickly quantifiable even without the spectrum's full values for reference. A hit-over-miss value of 300%, for instance, tells us quickly that a really good box has three times the value of a bad box. Context of how good or bad this value is can be compared just as we do with other metrics. A set's rare slot average, for example, is only considered good or bad based on how it fares compared to other sets. Likewise, a set is considered "consistent" or "inconsistent" as it compares to others, and hit-over-miss is a direct metric we can use for this comparison.
Calculating the Good and Bad
What represents a "good" or "bad" box can be subjective, but a quick dive into the rational numbers gives us some good guidelines. While there are always extreme outliers, what we want to look at are the practical and realistic boxes that we could actually expect to see. Boxes with a dozen foil mythics might exist somewhere out there, but we could hardly expect to ever see such a thing. With this in mind, I've calculated the hit and miss values with a subtle - but financially solid - change: A box's hit value is determined by calculating the expected value of a box which specifically contains the set's top three mythics and top three rares. The miss box value is the expected value of a box that does not contain any of these top cards. For sets with Masterpiece potential, the hit value receives only the average Masterpiece value, and the miss value thus receives no Masterpiece value. These changes are far from overly-dramatic, but the price difference they represent gives us a good indication of where real boxes will land.
Double Feature
I originally started writing this as an MMI Special that was completely separate from our normal weekly edition, but as I wrote, it become increasingly clear that the weekly tables were a necessary component of the discussion. I doubt anyone wants to go over the same tables twice, so this replaces our weekly edition. I'll be taking a good look at this statistic for each set, so we can get a better feel for what it represents, and illustrate the differences it has between sets.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.39 | $1.67 | $1.83 | $1.93 | -$0.28 | -$0.54 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $20.72 | $19.67 | $24.19 | $29.35 | $1.05 | -$8.63 |
| Total Set Value: | $148.05 | $175.48 | $190.68 | $201.05 | -$27.43 | -$53.00 |
| Booster Box EV: | $56.56 | $67.37 | $73.29 | $77.53 | -$10.81 | -$20.97 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 269% | 266% | 264% | 263% | 2.91% | 6.57% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Nicol Bolas, the Ravager | $23.53 | $30.42 | $32.98 | $35.46 | -$6.89 | -$11.93 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $14.54 | $18.06 | $19.19 | $18.57 | -$3.52 | -$4.03 |
| Tezzeret, Artifice Master | $7.53 | $10.99 | $11.22 | $12.62 | -$3.46 | -$5.09 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $7.30 | $9.48 | $10.26 | $12.52 | -$2.18 | -$5.22 |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $13.83 | $15.81 | $16.98 | $18.28 | -$1.98 | -$4.45 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Nicol Bolas, the Ravager | $23.53 | $30.42 | $32.98 | $35.46 | -$6.89 | -$11.93 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $14.54 | $18.06 | $19.19 | $18.57 | -$3.52 | -$4.03 |
| Sarkhan, Fireblood | $13.83 | $15.81 | $16.98 | $18.28 | -$1.98 | -$4.45 |
| Resplendent Angel | $9.06 | $10.39 | $12.57 | $13.43 | -$1.33 | -$4.37 |
| Scapeshift | $8.86 | $9.85 | $10.98 | $10.94 | -$0.99 | -$2.08 |
| Tezzeret, Artifice Master | $7.53 | $10.99 | $11.22 | $12.62 | -$3.46 | -$5.09 |
| Ajani, Adversary of Tyrants | $7.30 | $9.48 | $10.26 | $12.52 | -$2.18 | -$5.22 |
| Liliana, Untouched by Death | $6.78 | $7.89 | $8.87 | $9.54 | -$1.11 | -$2.76 |
| Vivien Reid | $6.31 | $7.58 | $8.09 | $8.39 | -$1.27 | -$2.08 |
| Arcades, the Strategist | $4.81 | $5.64 | $5.87 | $6.40 | -$0.83 | -$1.59 |
| Omniscience | $4.73 | $5.30 | $5.82 | $5.91 | -$0.57 | -$1.18 |
| Sai, Master Thopterist | $3.11 | $3.36 | $3.49 | $2.73 | -$0.25 | $0.38 |
| Death Baron | $2.78 | $3.08 | $3.48 | $3.67 | -$0.30 | -$0.89 |
| Chromium, the Mutable | $2.77 | $3.89 | $4.55 | $5.11 | -$1.12 | -$2.34 |
| Supreme Phantom | $2.65 | $2.75 | $3.13 | $3.33 | -$0.10 | -$0.68 |
Commentary
Core set continues to deflate, as we've seen only red numbers in the movement column for two straight weeks. As the set declines, the value depreciates unevenly, with the top cards getting more and more of the value pie. This is clearly echoed in the set's increasing level of hit-over-miss variance. As the top gets heavier, the fluctuations between boxes rises. That said, a variance range of 269% still isn't bad. It means a really good box is only about two and a half times as valuable as a really bad box, and given the prices of the top cards here - that difference is not a bad margin.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.67 | $1.62 | $1.61 | $1.55 | $0.05 | $0.12 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $2.33 | $2.58 | $2.72 | $2.36 | -$0.25 | -$0.03 |
| Total Set Value: | $176.92 | $172.39 | $170.83 | $164.26 | $4.53 | $12.66 |
| Booster Box EV: | $71.73 | $69.63 | $68.03 | $66.07 | $2.10 | $5.65 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 404% | 402% | 401% | 396% | 1.8% | 7.76% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $41.25 | $38.94 | $36.26 | $33.24 | $2.31 | $8.01 |
| History of Benalia | $8.91 | $8.34 | $9.14 | $8.59 | $0.57 | $0.32 |
| Goblin Chainwhirler | $3.77 | $3.44 | $3.80 | $3.61 | $0.33 | $0.16 |
| Verix Bladewing | $2.56 | $2.27 | $2.34 | $2.08 | $0.29 | $0.48 |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $28.44 | $28.16 | $29.19 | $29.44 | $0.28 | -$1.00 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Teferi, Hero of Dominaria | $41.25 | $38.94 | $36.26 | $33.24 | $2.31 | $8.01 |
| Karn, Scion of Urza | $28.44 | $28.16 | $29.19 | $29.44 | $0.28 | -$1.00 |
| Lyra Dawnbringer | $11.31 | $11.49 | $11.81 | $11.71 | -$0.18 | -$0.40 |
| Mox Amber | $9.56 | $9.55 | $9.98 | $10.01 | $0.01 | -$0.45 |
| History of Benalia | $8.91 | $8.34 | $9.14 | $8.59 | $0.57 | $0.32 |
| Sulfur Falls | $4.15 | $4.06 | $3.99 | $3.82 | $0.09 | $0.33 |
| Goblin Chainwhirler | $3.77 | $3.44 | $3.80 | $3.61 | $0.33 | $0.16 |
| Jaya Ballard | $3.62 | $3.61 | $3.73 | $3.83 | $0.01 | -$0.21 |
| Steel Leaf Champion | $3.51 | $3.25 | $3.19 | $2.98 | $0.26 | $0.53 |
| Woodland Cemetery | $3.19 | $3.15 | $3.08 | $3.04 | $0.04 | $0.15 |
| Isolated Chapel | $2.78 | $2.59 | $2.58 | $2.53 | $0.19 | $0.25 |
| Gilded Lotus | $2.59 | $2.62 | $2.64 | $2.64 | -$0.03 | -$0.05 |
| Verix Bladewing | $2.56 | $2.27 | $2.34 | $2.08 | $0.29 | $0.48 |
| Shalai, Voice of Plenty | $2.40 | $2.37 | $2.39 | $2.42 | $0.03 | -$0.02 |
| Hinterland Harbor | $2.33 | $2.14 | $1.96 | $1.98 | $0.19 | $0.35 |
| Helm of the Host | $2.10 | $2.00 | $2.05 | $2.02 | $0.10 | $0.08 |
| Muldrotha, the Gravetide | $2.00 | $1.89 | $1.92 | $1.81 | $0.11 | $0.19 |
Commentary
Dominaria shows us a valid example of bad consistency, with a 400% hit-over-miss . A bad box here is valued as low as $30, and a good box can reach $120. This is a staggeringly high deviation between boxes in a set with no Masterpieces to balloon the higher value. This is a direct result of the set's total value being highly shifted to only a few cards. A box can only contain so much or so little value while it's still in print. At some point it finds an equilibrium close to box cost, and if the set has an overall poor value, this forces the higher value cards to inflate further to make up the difference. That's exactly what we're seeing here. The value isn't spread out enough, and as a result, we have highly varied boxes.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.84 | $1.85 | $1.85 | $1.84 | -$0.02 | -$0.01 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.15 | $0.16 | $0.14 | $0.13 | -$0.01 | $0.02 |
| Total Set Value: | $157.11 | $156.35 | $155.83 | $155.90 | $0.76 | $1.21 |
| Booster Box EV: | $78.09 | $79.20 | $79.37 | $78.11 | -$1.11 | -$0.02 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 244% | 247% | 253% | 253% | -3.53% | -9.58% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Ghalta, Primal Hunger | $8.48 | $10.14 | $10.97 | $9.72 | -$1.66 | -$1.24 |
| Jadelight Ranger | $4.56 | $5.49 | $6.08 | $6.45 | -$0.93 | -$1.89 |
| Zacama, Primal Calamity | $10.14 | $9.27 | $9.58 | $9.18 | $0.87 | $0.96 |
| Nezahal, Primal Tide | $2.67 | $2.01 | $1.94 | $1.97 | $0.66 | $0.70 |
| The Immortal Sun | $11.38 | $10.78 | $11.25 | $11.28 | $0.60 | $0.10 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rekindling Phoenix | $22.34 | $22.39 | $21.81 | $23.26 | -$0.05 | -$0.92 |
| The Immortal Sun | $11.38 | $10.78 | $11.25 | $11.28 | $0.60 | $0.10 |
| Zacama, Primal Calamity | $10.14 | $9.27 | $9.58 | $9.18 | $0.87 | $0.96 |
| Ghalta, Primal Hunger | $8.48 | $10.14 | $10.97 | $9.72 | -$1.66 | -$1.24 |
| Twilight Prophet | $7.15 | $7.31 | $7.01 | $6.96 | -$0.16 | $0.19 |
| Elenda, the Dusk Rose | $6.95 | $6.85 | $6.24 | $6.36 | $0.10 | $0.59 |
| Angrath, the Flame-Chained | $5.79 | $5.25 | $5.70 | $5.71 | $0.54 | $0.08 |
| Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca | $5.44 | $4.96 | $4.85 | $5.06 | $0.48 | $0.38 |
| Wayward Swordtooth | $5.16 | $5.24 | $4.78 | $4.71 | -$0.08 | $0.45 |
| Huatli, Radiant Champion | $5.14 | $5.38 | $5.40 | $5.60 | -$0.24 | -$0.46 |
| Jadelight Ranger | $4.56 | $5.49 | $6.08 | $6.45 | -$0.93 | -$1.89 |
| Etali, Primal Storm | $4.21 | $4.26 | $4.26 | $4.21 | -$0.05 | $0.00 |
| Tendershoot Dryad | $3.66 | $3.79 | $3.93 | $3.91 | -$0.13 | -$0.25 |
| Azor's Gateway | $3.59 | $3.19 | $3.11 | $3.57 | $0.40 | $0.02 |
| Radiant Destiny | $3.00 | $3.12 | $2.91 | $2.98 | -$0.12 | $0.02 |
| Polyraptor | $2.80 | $2.88 | $2.79 | $2.58 | -$0.08 | $0.22 |
| Nezahal, Primal Tide | $2.67 | $2.01 | $1.94 | $1.97 | $0.66 | $0.70 |
| Timestream Navigator | $2.45 | $2.38 | $2.07 | $2.12 | $0.07 | $0.33 |
| Dire Fleet Daredevil | $2.44 | $2.62 | $2.72 | $2.79 | -$0.18 | -$0.35 |
Commentary
As I've said in the past, Rivals is a remarkably stable set. We're almost 8 months into this set's life, and the box deviation remains low. We're still under the 250 marker in hit-over-miss , which is an exceptional place to be, especially at this set's age. This is even more extraordinary because the box's expected value continues to remain high. Not only will your returns be more reliable than most sets, they're also likely to be higher.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.80 | $1.83 | $1.85 | $1.85 | -$0.03 | -$0.05 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.20 | $0.26 | $0.24 | $0.23 | -$0.06 | -$0.03 |
| Total Set Value: | $172.33 | $173.76 | $175.16 | $175.12 | -$1.43 | -$2.79 |
| Booster Box EV: | $84.94 | $85.19 | $85.22 | $85.46 | -$0.26 | -$0.52 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 243% | 243% | 244% | 244% | 0.33% | -1.09% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Vraska's Contempt | $12.97 | $14.08 | $13.98 | $14.75 | -$1.11 | -$1.78 |
| Search for Azcanta | $16.96 | $16.46 | $16.76 | $16.35 | $0.50 | $0.61 |
| Siren Stormtamer | $2.71 | $2.41 | $2.43 | $2.55 | $0.30 | $0.16 |
| Carnage Tyrant | $16.23 | $16.52 | $16.43 | $16.07 | -$0.29 | $0.16 |
| Drowned Catacomb | $4.49 | $4.75 | $4.76 | $4.87 | -$0.26 | -$0.38 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Search for Azcanta | $16.96 | $16.46 | $16.76 | $16.35 | $0.50 | $0.61 |
| Carnage Tyrant | $16.23 | $16.52 | $16.43 | $16.07 | -$0.29 | $0.16 |
| Vraska's Contempt | $12.97 | $14.08 | $13.98 | $14.75 | -$1.11 | -$1.78 |
| Vraska, Relic Seeker | $7.73 | $7.73 | $8.00 | $8.22 | $0.00 | -$0.49 |
| Settle the Wreckage | $6.46 | $6.27 | $6.31 | $6.13 | $0.19 | $0.33 |
| Growing Rites of Itlimoc | $5.14 | $5.06 | $5.50 | $5.55 | $0.08 | -$0.41 |
| Glacial Fortress | $4.94 | $5.06 | $4.63 | $4.72 | -$0.12 | $0.22 |
| Drowned Catacomb | $4.49 | $4.75 | $4.76 | $4.87 | -$0.26 | -$0.38 |
| Treasure Map | $3.85 | $3.92 | $4.03 | $4.05 | -$0.07 | -$0.20 |
| Sunpetal Grove | $3.57 | $3.74 | $3.71 | $3.62 | -$0.17 | -$0.05 |
| Vanquisher's Banner | $3.54 | $3.50 | $3.55 | $3.41 | $0.04 | $0.13 |
| Rootbound Crag | $3.30 | $3.07 | $3.37 | $3.51 | $0.23 | -$0.21 |
| Field of Ruin | $3.21 | $3.02 | $3.00 | $3.15 | $0.19 | $0.06 |
| Sorcerous Spyglass | $3.21 | $3.08 | $3.41 | $3.39 | $0.13 | -$0.18 |
| Dragonskull Summit | $3.17 | $3.22 | $3.19 | $3.05 | -$0.05 | $0.12 |
| Jace, Cunning Castaway | $2.92 | $2.78 | $2.65 | $2.68 | $0.14 | $0.24 |
| Ripjaw Raptor | $2.88 | $3.03 | $3.11 | $3.03 | -$0.15 | -$0.15 |
| Gishath, Sun's Avatar | $2.84 | $2.99 | $2.98 | $3.11 | -$0.15 | -$0.27 |
| Huatli, Warrior Poet | $2.80 | $2.79 | $2.90 | $2.81 | $0.01 | -$0.01 |
| Thaumatic Compass | $2.73 | $2.79 | $2.71 | $2.83 | -$0.06 | -$0.10 |
| Siren Stormtamer | $2.71 | $2.41 | $2.43 | $2.55 | $0.30 | $0.16 |
| Legion's Landing | $2.63 | $2.68 | $2.81 | $3.04 | -$0.05 | -$0.41 |
| Vona, Butcher of Magan | $2.24 | $2.24 | $2.24 | $2.33 | $0.00 | -$0.09 |
| Hostage Taker | $2.22 | $2.13 | $2.06 | $1.95 | $0.09 | $0.27 |
| Shapers' Sanctuary | $2.17 | $2.35 | $2.52 | $2.15 | -$0.18 | $0.02 |
Commentary
As we look at Ixalan right after the strong numbers of Rivals, it's easy to see why I continue to call this set a box-cracker's dream. The hit-over-miss shows the variance is right at the same level as Rivals, but the box's expected value is even higher. If we expand the top cards table, it becomes clear why the variation is so low. Ixalan contains 25 cards that break the $2 mark - by far the most of any of the Standard sets. This creates consistent value, and gives Ixalan the highest return for its bad boxes in all of the Standard sets.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.29 | $1.29 | $1.33 | $1.37 | $0.00 | -$0.09 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.29 | $0.31 | $0.39 | $0.40 | -$0.02 | -$0.11 |
| Total Set Value: | $97.35 | $98.14 | $100.45 | $102.33 | -$0.79 | -$4.98 |
| Booster Box EV: | $68.43 | $70.10 | $71.91 | $73.69 | -$1.67 | -$5.26 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 437% | 439% | 419% | 410% | -2.46% | 26.52% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Razaketh, the Foulblooded | $6.72 | $7.67 | $7.95 | $6.95 | -$0.95 | -$0.23 |
| Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh | $5.65 | $6.52 | $6.70 | $6.68 | -$0.87 | -$1.03 |
| The Scarab God | $14.38 | $13.63 | $13.81 | $14.54 | $0.75 | -$0.16 |
| Champion of Wits | $1.61 | $2.11 | $2.43 | $2.61 | -$0.50 | -$1.00 |
| Neheb, the Eternal | $4.41 | $4.90 | $4.64 | $4.77 | -$0.49 | -$0.36 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| The Scarab God | $14.38 | $13.63 | $13.81 | $14.54 | $0.75 | -$0.16 |
| Razaketh, the Foulblooded | $6.72 | $7.67 | $7.95 | $6.95 | -$0.95 | -$0.23 |
| The Locust God | $5.96 | $5.78 | $5.99 | $5.96 | $0.18 | $0.00 |
| Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh | $5.65 | $6.52 | $6.70 | $6.68 | -$0.87 | -$1.03 |
| Torment of Hailfire | $5.40 | $4.94 | $5.47 | $5.22 | $0.46 | $0.18 |
| Crested Sunmare | $5.02 | $5.48 | $5.08 | $5.61 | -$0.46 | -$0.59 |
| Neheb, the Eternal | $4.41 | $4.90 | $4.64 | $4.77 | -$0.49 | -$0.36 |
| Ramunap Excavator | $3.66 | $3.75 | $3.59 | $3.79 | -$0.09 | -$0.13 |
| Nimble Obstructionist | $3.26 | $2.90 | $2.82 | $3.58 | $0.36 | -$0.32 |
| Mirage Mirror | $3.19 | $3.22 | $2.61 | $3.10 | -$0.03 | $0.09 |
| Fraying Sanity | $2.64 | $2.21 | $2.61 | $2.35 | $0.43 | $0.29 |
| Abrade | $2.16 | $2.01 | $2.24 | $2.25 | $0.15 | -$0.09 |
| Overwhelming Splendor | $2.08 | $1.94 | $2.00 | $1.96 | $0.14 | $0.12 |
Commentary
Hour has the most consistent returns for the rotating sets, by far. A hit-over-miss that rises over 400% is generally bad, but this a Masterpiece set. Masterpieces greatly inflate the variance between boxes, and rightfully so, as there's at least a $50 card that may or may not be there. With that in consideration, Hour isn't quite as horrible as it seems - its miss value is only slightly lower than Dominaria's miss value. It is directly the possibility of a high return from Masterpieces that has exaggerated this value.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.15 | $1.20 | $1.26 | $1.21 | -$0.05 | -$0.05 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.40 | $0.34 | $0.44 | $0.48 | $0.06 | -$0.08 |
| Total Set Value: | $116.24 | $118.01 | $122.58 | $117.81 | -$1.77 | -$1.57 |
| Booster Box EV: | $62.88 | $63.23 | $61.99 | $59.95 | -$0.34 | $2.94 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 456% | 431% | 424% | 449% | 25.14% | 7.24% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Bontu's Monument | $1.67 | $0.82 | $0.49 | $0.57 | $0.85 | $1.10 |
| Lord of the Accursed | $2.30 | $1.52 | $1.68 | $1.06 | $0.78 | $1.24 |
| Commit // Memory | $1.49 | $2.25 | $3.06 | $2.02 | -$0.76 | -$0.53 |
| Liliana, Death's Majesty | $8.83 | $9.45 | $10.30 | $10.55 | -$0.62 | -$1.72 |
| Gideon of the Trials | $6.65 | $6.11 | $7.10 | $7.26 | $0.54 | -$0.61 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rhonas the Indomitable | $12.40 | $12.72 | $12.83 | $12.38 | -$0.32 | $0.02 |
| Liliana, Death's Majesty | $8.83 | $9.45 | $10.30 | $10.55 | -$0.62 | -$1.72 |
| Gideon of the Trials | $6.65 | $6.11 | $7.10 | $7.26 | $0.54 | -$0.61 |
| As Foretold | $5.68 | $5.76 | $5.87 | $5.77 | -$0.08 | -$0.09 |
| Anointed Procession | $5.66 | $5.12 | $5.52 | $5.69 | $0.54 | -$0.03 |
| Hazoret the Fervent | $4.40 | $4.88 | $5.17 | $4.89 | -$0.48 | -$0.49 |
| Canyon Slough | $3.50 | $3.84 | $3.84 | $3.74 | -$0.34 | -$0.24 |
| Nissa, Steward of Elements | $3.46 | $3.98 | $3.96 | $3.49 | -$0.52 | -$0.03 |
| Fetid Pools | $3.46 | $3.64 | $3.73 | $3.73 | -$0.18 | -$0.27 |
| Vizier of the Menagerie | $2.85 | $2.92 | $3.04 | $3.14 | -$0.07 | -$0.29 |
| Lord of the Accursed | $2.30 | $1.52 | $1.68 | $1.06 | $0.78 | $1.24 |
| Combat Celebrant | $2.24 | $2.02 | $2.34 | $2.44 | $0.22 | -$0.20 |
| Bontu the Glorified | $2.02 | $2.00 | $2.15 | $2.00 | $0.02 | $0.02 |
| Scattered Groves | $2.00 | $2.06 | $1.98 | $2.03 | -$0.06 | -$0.03 |
Commentary
Amonkhet is much less redeeming even with its Masterpiece potential. Compared to Hour, it's box expected value is lower, its hit-over-miss is higher, and even its hit value is remarkably low. Its miss value is a staggering $26, and its hit value - containing all the best rares and mythics and an average Masterpiece - doesn't even match Dominaria. Amonkhet added some interesting cards to the grand pool and was very iconic in its design, but otherwise only offers its Masterpiece collection to the financial world.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| AKH Average: | $52.25 | $52.32 | $52.22 | $52.25 | -$0.07 | $0.00 |
| HOU Average: | $52.50 | $52.90 | $52.91 | $52.90 | -$0.40 | -$0.40 |
| AKH Box EV: | $13.06 | $13.08 | $13.06 | $13.06 | -$0.02 | $0.00 |
| HOU Box EV: | $13.13 | $13.23 | $13.23 | $13.22 | -$0.10 | -$0.10 |
| Total Set Value: | $2,468.26 | $2,474.98 | $2,471.76 | $2,472.90 | -$6.72 | -$4.64 |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Thoughtseize | $168.41 | $172.01 | $172.09 | $172.02 | -$3.60 | -$3.61 |
| Force of Will | $209.34 | $212.77 | $212.77 | $212.77 | -$3.43 | -$3.43 |
| Blood Moon | $158.77 | $161.92 | $159.67 | $159.67 | -$3.15 | -$0.90 |
| Omniscience | $113.77 | $116.44 | $117.36 | $117.36 | -$2.67 | -$3.59 |
| Doomsday | $26.63 | $28.36 | $28.92 | $29.44 | -$1.73 | -$2.81 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Force of Will | $209.34 | $212.77 | $212.77 | $212.77 | -$3.43 | -$3.43 |
| Thoughtseize | $168.41 | $172.01 | $172.09 | $172.02 | -$3.60 | -$3.61 |
| Blood Moon | $158.77 | $161.92 | $159.67 | $159.67 | -$3.15 | -$0.90 |
| Omniscience | $113.77 | $116.44 | $117.36 | $117.36 | -$2.67 | -$3.59 |
| Damnation | $103.77 | $103.48 | $103.20 | $102.22 | $0.29 | $1.55 |
| The Scarab God | $94.81 | $94.81 | $95.82 | $96.58 | $0.00 | -$1.77 |
| Through the Breach | $91.80 | $90.79 | $90.79 | $90.75 | $1.01 | $1.05 |
| Hazoret the Fervent | $86.43 | $86.43 | $86.43 | $86.03 | $0.00 | $0.40 |
| Cryptic Command | $81.26 | $81.26 | $81.50 | $81.50 | $0.00 | -$0.24 |
| Daze | $79.15 | $78.60 | $78.60 | $80.60 | $0.55 | -$1.45 |
| Maelstrom Pulse | $68.68 | $68.08 | $68.08 | $67.46 | $0.60 | $1.22 |
| Consecrated Sphinx | $67.70 | $67.98 | $67.98 | $67.86 | -$0.28 | -$0.16 |
| Counterspell | $60.63 | $59.91 | $60.08 | $60.08 | $0.72 | $0.55 |
| Rhonas the Indomitable | $56.40 | $56.40 | $56.40 | $56.88 | $0.00 | -$0.48 |
| Containment Priest | $55.81 | $55.81 | $54.61 | $53.47 | $0.00 | $2.34 |
| Entomb | $54.35 | $53.95 | $53.76 | $53.46 | $0.40 | $0.89 |
| Dark Ritual | $53.93 | $53.93 | $53.93 | $54.77 | $0.00 | -$0.84 |
| Spell Pierce | $51.53 | $51.57 | $51.73 | $52.10 | -$0.04 | -$0.57 |
| Pact of Negation | $49.91 | $50.26 | $50.32 | $50.46 | -$0.35 | -$0.55 |
| The Locust God | $49.33 | $49.33 | $48.94 | $48.84 | $0.00 | $0.49 |
| Wrath of God | $49.01 | $48.84 | $48.22 | $48.22 | $0.17 | $0.79 |
| No Mercy | $45.42 | $45.42 | $46.78 | $47.14 | $0.00 | -$1.72 |
| Stifle | $44.08 | $42.88 | $42.88 | $42.88 | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| Diabolic Intent | $42.80 | $42.80 | $41.60 | $41.60 | $0.00 | $1.20 |
| Choke | $40.65 | $40.65 | $40.65 | $40.39 | $0.00 | $0.26 |
| Capsize | $40.09 | $40.09 | $40.22 | $40.22 | $0.00 | -$0.13 |
| Counterbalance | $38.11 | $37.71 | $37.71 | $37.71 | $0.40 | $0.40 |
| Lord of Extinction | $35.39 | $35.39 | $35.39 | $35.39 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Worship | $34.47 | $33.82 | $33.82 | $34.21 | $0.65 | $0.26 |
| Diabolic Edict | $32.87 | $32.87 | $32.87 | $32.87 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Austere Command | $32.51 | $32.51 | $32.35 | $32.35 | $0.00 | $0.16 |
| Aggravated Assault | $32.23 | $32.23 | $32.28 | $32.28 | $0.00 | -$0.05 |
| Chain Lightning | $31.88 | $31.88 | $31.88 | $31.88 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Armageddon | $31.80 | $31.69 | $31.49 | $31.49 | $0.11 | $0.31 |
| Mind Twist | $30.18 | $30.32 | $30.37 | $29.91 | -$0.14 | $0.27 |
| Vindicate | $29.62 | $29.62 | $29.40 | $29.06 | $0.00 | $0.56 |
| Loyal Retainers | $29.16 | $29.16 | $29.59 | $30.67 | $0.00 | -$1.51 |
| Attrition | $28.42 | $28.42 | $28.25 | $28.13 | $0.00 | $0.29 |
| The Scorpion God | $28.37 | $28.37 | $28.45 | $28.11 | $0.00 | $0.26 |
| Forbid | $28.02 | $27.77 | $27.66 | $27.50 | $0.25 | $0.52 |
| Doomsday | $26.63 | $28.36 | $28.92 | $29.44 | -$1.73 | -$2.81 |
| Aven Mindcensor | $25.87 | $25.83 | $25.83 | $25.56 | $0.04 | $0.31 |
| Slaughter Pact | $24.82 | $24.82 | $24.82 | $24.82 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Bontu the Glorified | $24.46 | $24.52 | $24.34 | $24.07 | -$0.06 | $0.39 |
| Kefnet the Mindful | $23.96 | $24.15 | $23.57 | $23.35 | -$0.19 | $0.61 |
| Oketra the True | $23.84 | $23.86 | $24.00 | $24.08 | -$0.02 | -$0.24 |
| Shatterstorm | $23.63 | $23.63 | $23.51 | $23.55 | $0.00 | $0.08 |
| Opposition | $23.60 | $23.84 | $23.72 | $23.76 | -$0.24 | -$0.16 |
| Avatar of Woe | $20.77 | $20.77 | $20.49 | $20.34 | $0.00 | $0.43 |
| Desolation Angel | $19.85 | $19.67 | $19.33 | $19.34 | $0.18 | $0.51 |
| Boil | $19.73 | $19.67 | $19.81 | $19.75 | $0.06 | -$0.02 |
| Sunder | $19.56 | $19.60 | $19.55 | $19.55 | -$0.04 | $0.01 |
| Divert | $19.26 | $19.26 | $19.28 | $19.28 | $0.00 | -$0.02 |
| Threads of Disloyalty | $18.21 | $18.30 | $18.38 | $18.47 | -$0.09 | -$0.26 |
Commentary
It was Invocations that killed the idea of the Masterpiece sets, but I suspect we'll revisit the idea again some day. Although Invocations was not received nearly as well as Inventions or Expeditions, it did serve its purpose well. Those looking to invest in cards and make a real profit here can focus on the Masterpieces, while the player base gets better access to the Standard-legal cards they need to play with. The financial aspects of Amonkhet's main set might be less than appealing in the market, but it is a godsend to actual players, who need the lower prices for more access. Each side of the financial connoisseurs got what it wanted.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.37 | $1.34 | $1.38 | $1.35 | $0.03 | $0.01 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $2.03 | $1.74 | $1.59 | $1.62 | $0.29 | $0.41 |
| Total Set Value: | $96.88 | $95.46 | $97.90 | $95.20 | $1.42 | $1.68 |
| Booster Box EV: | $82.90 | $82.48 | $84.43 | $83.05 | $0.42 | -$0.15 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 661% | 652% | 630% | 632% | 9.17% | 29.57% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Disallow | $4.23 | $5.22 | $5.34 | $5.46 | -$0.99 | -$1.23 |
| Walking Ballista | $11.75 | $11.01 | $10.82 | $10.55 | $0.74 | $1.20 |
| Paradox Engine | $16.21 | $15.54 | $15.56 | $14.25 | $0.67 | $1.96 |
| Rishkar's Expertise | $2.36 | $1.83 | $2.47 | $2.51 | $0.53 | -$0.15 |
| Planar Bridge | $3.13 | $2.73 | $2.75 | $2.79 | $0.40 | $0.34 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Paradox Engine | $16.21 | $15.54 | $15.56 | $14.25 | $0.67 | $1.96 |
| Walking Ballista | $11.75 | $11.01 | $10.82 | $10.55 | $0.74 | $1.20 |
| Heroic Intervention | $6.10 | $5.97 | $6.17 | $5.73 | $0.13 | $0.37 |
| Metallic Mimic | $5.81 | $5.69 | $6.14 | $7.06 | $0.12 | -$1.25 |
| Baral, Chief of Compliance | $5.09 | $5.05 | $5.11 | $5.04 | $0.04 | $0.05 |
| Fatal Push | $4.27 | $4.45 | $4.69 | $4.43 | -$0.18 | -$0.16 |
| Disallow | $4.23 | $5.22 | $5.34 | $5.46 | -$0.99 | -$1.23 |
| Mechanized Production | $3.72 | $3.49 | $3.60 | $3.37 | $0.23 | $0.35 |
| Planar Bridge | $3.13 | $2.73 | $2.75 | $2.79 | $0.40 | $0.34 |
| Ajani Unyielding | $2.72 | $2.93 | $2.89 | $2.66 | -$0.21 | $0.06 |
| Rishkar's Expertise | $2.36 | $1.83 | $2.47 | $2.51 | $0.53 | -$0.15 |
| Gifted Aetherborn | $2.08 | $2.21 | $2.29 | $2.27 | -$0.13 | -$0.19 |
Commentary
Now we can see what real havoc Masterpieces can cause. The Masterpieces here raise staggering values, and the main set's worth suffers for it. The expected value of an Aether Revolt box is inflated because of the Masterpiece potential, and as we add and remove that from boxes, we see just how big of a difference it makes. In context: the average price of an Inventions masterpiece exceeds the entire box's expected value. This causes massive deflation from the main set, causing the miss value to plummet to $26. The hit value, however, is a staggering $163. Box value lives and dies by the Masterpieces here, and the main set cards can often be nothing more than a consolation prize.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Rare Slot Average: | $1.00 | $0.99 | $1.06 | $1.04 | $0.01 | -$0.05 |
| Buy-A-Box Promo: | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.21 | $0.00 | $0.01 |
| Total Set Value: | $89.73 | $90.11 | $95.41 | $93.43 | -$0.38 | -$3.70 |
| Booster Box EV: | $64.08 | $63.09 | $66.61 | $65.45 | $0.99 | -$1.37 |
| Hit Over Miss: | 793% | 796% | 779% | 776% | -3.22% | 16.31% |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Chandra, Torch of Defiance | $10.85 | $12.58 | $13.55 | $11.55 | -$1.73 | -$0.70 |
| Blooming Marsh | $4.56 | $3.78 | $5.67 | $5.10 | $0.78 | -$0.54 |
| Nissa, Vital Force | $4.82 | $5.27 | $4.89 | $4.81 | -$0.45 | $0.01 |
| Panharmonicon | $3.70 | $3.26 | $4.04 | $3.92 | $0.44 | -$0.22 |
| Botanical Sanctum | $3.13 | $2.73 | $2.77 | $3.00 | $0.40 | $0.13 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Chandra, Torch of Defiance | $10.85 | $12.58 | $13.55 | $11.55 | -$1.73 | -$0.70 |
| Spirebluff Canal | $6.24 | $6.07 | $5.91 | $5.75 | $0.17 | $0.49 |
| Nissa, Vital Force | $4.82 | $5.27 | $4.89 | $4.81 | -$0.45 | $0.01 |
| Torrential Gearhulk | $4.69 | $4.65 | $5.16 | $5.52 | $0.04 | -$0.83 |
| Saheeli Rai | $4.67 | $4.86 | $4.66 | $4.48 | -$0.19 | $0.19 |
| Blooming Marsh | $4.56 | $3.78 | $5.67 | $5.10 | $0.78 | -$0.54 |
| Panharmonicon | $3.70 | $3.26 | $4.04 | $3.92 | $0.44 | -$0.22 |
| Botanical Sanctum | $3.13 | $2.73 | $2.77 | $3.00 | $0.40 | $0.13 |
| Inventors' Fair | $2.95 | $3.16 | $3.07 | $3.15 | -$0.21 | -$0.20 |
| Noxious Gearhulk | $2.54 | $2.56 | $2.68 | $2.59 | -$0.02 | -$0.05 |
| Concealed Courtyard | $2.52 | $2.44 | $2.63 | $2.72 | $0.08 | -$0.20 |
| Angel of Invention | $2.49 | $2.68 | $2.85 | $2.86 | -$0.19 | -$0.37 |
| Aetherflux Reservoir | $2.44 | $2.49 | $3.40 | $4.12 | -$0.05 | -$1.68 |
| Combustible Gearhulk | $2.27 | $2.22 | $2.31 | $2.55 | $0.05 | -$0.28 |
| Authority of the Consuls | $2.14 | $2.28 | $2.34 | $2.26 | -$0.14 | -$0.12 |
Commentary
Kaladesh is the epitome of variation. Everything I just said about Aether Revolt applies to Kaladesh, but to an even more exaggerated degree. Expected value is lower, variance is higher, and the hit and miss values are even further polarized ($20 to $166). Usually we jokingly compare booster packs to lottery tickets, but Kaladesh approaches a box-level lottery.
| Set Overview | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| KLD Invention Average: | $106.67 | $106.62 | $106.52 | $106.47 | $0.05 | $0.20 |
| AER Invention Average: | $86.64 | $87.07 | $86.66 | $86.57 | -$0.43 | $0.07 |
| KLD Invention Deviation: | $83.46 | $83.47 | $83.50 | $83.25 | -$0.01 | $0.21 |
| AER Invention Deviation: | $42.69 | $42.47 | $42.28 | $41.82 | $0.22 | $0.87 |
| KLD Box Value: | $26.67 | $26.65 | $26.63 | $26.62 | $0.01 | $0.05 |
| AER Box Value: | $21.66 | $21.77 | $21.67 | $21.64 | -$0.11 | $0.02 |
| Total Set Value: | $5,279.59 | $5,288.21 | $5,275.47 | $5,271.88 | -$8.62 | $7.71 |
| Top 5 Movers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Planar Bridge | $57.31 | $62.95 | $63.32 | $61.81 | -$5.64 | -$4.50 |
| Mind's Eye | $42.81 | $45.69 | $47.50 | $47.50 | -$2.88 | -$4.69 |
| Scroll Rack | $83.22 | $80.89 | $80.59 | $79.27 | $2.33 | $3.95 |
| Noxious Gearhulk | $36.85 | $34.95 | $34.51 | $34.63 | $1.90 | $2.22 |
| Wurmcoil Engine | $124.77 | $126.48 | $126.38 | $127.08 | -$1.71 | -$2.31 |
| Top Cards | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Card | 08/30 | 08/23 | 08/16 | 08/09 | ± Week | ± Month |
| Sol Ring | $358.22 | $358.22 | $358.22 | $358.22 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Mox Opal | $302.41 | $302.36 | $302.36 | $301.22 | $0.05 | $1.19 |
| Mana Crypt | $286.90 | $286.90 | $286.87 | $285.46 | $0.00 | $1.44 |
| Mana Vault | $233.39 | $233.67 | $233.67 | $232.11 | -$0.28 | $1.28 |
| Chalice of the Void | $189.27 | $188.79 | $188.79 | $188.79 | $0.48 | $0.48 |
| Ensnaring Bridge | $170.02 | $169.88 | $167.84 | $166.19 | $0.14 | $3.83 |
| Aether Vial | $156.64 | $155.92 | $154.58 | $154.58 | $0.72 | $2.06 |
| Engineered Explosives | $152.80 | $151.70 | $151.70 | $149.84 | $1.10 | $2.96 |
| Arcbound Ravager | $149.83 | $150.29 | $148.57 | $144.98 | -$0.46 | $4.85 |
| Crucible of Worlds | $144.55 | $145.35 | $145.35 | $146.91 | -$0.80 | -$2.36 |
| Sword of Fire and Ice | $135.97 | $135.97 | $135.97 | $135.97 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sword of Feast and Famine | $132.79 | $132.51 | $133.19 | $133.36 | $0.28 | -$0.57 |
| Lotus Petal | $126.59 | $126.26 | $126.26 | $126.26 | $0.33 | $0.33 |
| Wurmcoil Engine | $124.77 | $126.48 | $126.38 | $127.08 | -$1.71 | -$2.31 |
| Platinum Angel | $108.64 | $109.52 | $109.60 | $109.00 | -$0.88 | -$0.36 |
| Chrome Mox | $105.59 | $105.15 | $105.56 | $105.96 | $0.44 | -$0.37 |
| Sword of War and Peace | $102.67 | $103.03 | $100.59 | $101.77 | -$0.36 | $0.90 |
| Chromatic Lantern | $102.56 | $102.60 | $103.27 | $103.27 | -$0.04 | -$0.71 |
| Solemn Simulacrum | $98.94 | $98.79 | $98.79 | $98.79 | $0.15 | $0.15 |
| Ornithopter | $97.84 | $98.32 | $98.32 | $98.32 | -$0.48 | -$0.48 |
| Paradox Engine | $93.69 | $94.19 | $94.19 | $96.10 | -$0.50 | -$2.41 |
| Lightning Greaves | $91.59 | $91.89 | $91.89 | $92.14 | -$0.30 | -$0.55 |
| Sword of Light and Shadow | $87.22 | $87.22 | $87.22 | $87.28 | $0.00 | -$0.06 |
| Oblivion Stone | $86.32 | $86.40 | $86.00 | $86.00 | -$0.08 | $0.32 |
| Scroll Rack | $83.22 | $80.89 | $80.59 | $79.27 | $2.33 | $3.95 |
| Sword of Body and Mind | $83.10 | $83.10 | $83.10 | $83.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Steel Overseer | $82.69 | $82.69 | $83.89 | $84.41 | $0.00 | -$1.72 |
| Rings of Brighthearth | $80.85 | $81.04 | $81.45 | $82.67 | -$0.19 | -$1.82 |
| Trinisphere | $78.25 | $77.77 | $77.91 | $77.91 | $0.48 | $0.34 |
| Staff of Domination | $75.67 | $74.91 | $75.15 | $74.91 | $0.76 | $0.76 |
| Pithing Needle | $73.44 | $73.44 | $73.07 | $73.07 | $0.00 | $0.37 |
| Hangarback Walker | $68.68 | $68.68 | $61.97 | $61.31 | $0.00 | $7.37 |
| Sphere of Resistance | $66.05 | $67.25 | $67.25 | $67.94 | -$1.20 | -$1.89 |
| Extraplanar Lens | $58.71 | $59.77 | $59.67 | $61.16 | -$1.06 | -$2.45 |
| Gauntlet of Power | $57.86 | $59.27 | $59.05 | $59.06 | -$1.41 | -$1.20 |
| Planar Bridge | $57.31 | $62.95 | $63.32 | $61.81 | -$5.64 | -$4.50 |
| Cloudstone Curio | $56.05 | $55.85 | $55.78 | $56.06 | $0.20 | -$0.01 |
| Defense Grid | $55.94 | $56.90 | $56.90 | $58.22 | -$0.96 | -$2.28 |
| Torrential Gearhulk | $53.49 | $53.77 | $53.77 | $54.09 | -$0.28 | -$0.60 |
| Meekstone | $52.75 | $51.89 | $49.82 | $49.82 | $0.86 | $2.93 |
| Champion's Helm | $50.01 | $50.01 | $50.01 | $49.28 | $0.00 | $0.73 |
| Vedalken Shackles | $49.62 | $49.45 | $49.45 | $49.45 | $0.17 | $0.17 |
| Painter's Servant | $45.80 | $44.52 | $44.88 | $45.33 | $1.28 | $0.47 |
| Grindstone | $45.68 | $46.16 | $45.17 | $45.17 | -$0.48 | $0.51 |
| Duplicant | $45.11 | $45.68 | $45.24 | $45.24 | -$0.57 | -$0.13 |
| Sculpting Steel | $44.74 | $44.78 | $44.78 | $44.78 | -$0.04 | -$0.04 |
| Mind's Eye | $42.81 | $45.69 | $47.50 | $47.50 | -$2.88 | -$4.69 |
| Static Orb | $38.64 | $39.74 | $40.43 | $40.47 | -$1.10 | -$1.83 |
| Combustible Gearhulk | $37.69 | $36.22 | $36.22 | $36.22 | $1.47 | $1.47 |
| Noxious Gearhulk | $36.85 | $34.95 | $34.51 | $34.63 | $1.90 | $2.22 |
| Sundering Titan | $32.49 | $32.40 | $32.48 | $32.48 | $0.09 | $0.01 |
| Verdurous Gearhulk | $32.02 | $32.44 | $32.44 | $32.43 | -$0.42 | -$0.41 |
| Black Vise | $29.42 | $29.38 | $29.38 | $29.38 | $0.04 | $0.04 |
| Cataclysmic Gearhulk | $25.44 | $25.21 | $25.11 | $25.11 | $0.23 | $0.33 |
Commentary
As we've gone down this box variance road today, it's important to note that the Masterpiece sets add yet another layer that compounds the already-high fluctuations. For hit values, I've only added the average Masterpiece value for the set, but the actual value is also highly varied. Inventions range from $25 to $350, and have a standard deviation over $80. This is a large level of variance, and can cause even hit values to fluctuate wildly.
Parting Thoughts...
If you're tired of hearing about box variance, don't worry - I won't be doing this again. As our first week with the hit-over-miss values, I thought it was important to cover this for every set to see exactly where we stand. Next week we'll return to our regularly scheduled commentary.
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Posted Sep 7, 2018-
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Posted Sep 4, 2018I would also love to see something like this once or twice a year.
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Posted Sep 4, 2018-
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Posted Sep 5, 2018