The Magic Market Index for December 9, 2016

 

Welcome to The Magic Market Index. This article series documents the price changes of cards currently in print. This article will track how cards go from release to its time out of Standard, and as long as deemed necessary for non-Standard sets, as well as offer insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. The Magic market is a dangerous place, and this article is here to help guide players and speculators through the murky waters to greater returns.

 

This article will be updated once a week. Currently, this article series is tracking Battle for Zendikar Block (Oath of the Gatewatch, Battle for Zendikar, and Zendikar Expeditions), Shadows over Innistrad Block (Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon) and the Kaladesh Block (Kaladesh and Kaladesh Inventions). There are no current plans to track any promo sets, pack foils, or non-set releases. Otherwise, if it can be opened in a pack, it will be covered.

 

The Magic Market Index is a collaborative effort between the MTGSalvation staff. This week's edition is brought to you by accountant and MTGS content manager Alexandra Haggstrom.

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Chandra, Torch of Defiance $19.96 $19.99 $19.57 $19.94 -$0.03 +$0.02 As proof that Standard playability can be difficult to predict, Aetherworks Marvel managed to shoot up a tremendous 62.3%. However, without such good fortune to buoy the rest of the set, the overall set value shrank about 2.7%, collapsing box EV towards the $100 mark. Don't expect very much profit through the likes of spikes like Aetherworks Marvel's until Aether Revolt spoiler season. On the other hand, these drops in value help players quite a lot by lowering barriers to entry to Standard. Keep whatever you want on hand, but unless you can predict the metagame consistently, playing the profit game on individual cards is going to be difficult for the time being.
Torrential Gearhulk $15.00 $16.00 $16.49 $17.99 -$1.00 -$2.99
Smuggler's Copter $11.68 $12.58 $13.00 $13.97 -$0.90 -$2.29
Verdurous Gearhulk $8.69 $9.99 $10.92 $12.30 -$1.30 -$3.61
Spirebluff Canal $8.22 $8.74 $8.86 $9.25 -$0.52 -$1.03
Aetherworks Marvel $8.00 $4.93 $5.07 $6.00 +$3.07 +$2.00
Nissa, Vital Force $6.77 $7.38 $7.99 $8.86 -$0.61 -$2.09
Noxious Gearhulk $6.29 $6.70 $6.90 $7.25 -$0.41 -$0.96
Skysovereign, Consul Flagship $6.05 $6.49 $6.87 $7.23 -$0.44 -$1.18
Saheeli Rai $5.21 $5.47 $6.11 $6.51 -$0.26 -$1.30
Dovin Baan $4.99 $5.50 $5.99 $6.55 -$0.51 -$1.56
Inspiring Vantage $4.90 $5.21 $5.42 $5.70 -$0.31 -$0.80
Panharmonicon $4.27 $3.60 $3.50 $3.62 +$0.67 +$0.65
Combustible Gearhulk $3.94 $4.09 $4.16 $4.49 -$0.15 -$0.55
Blooming Marsh $3.81 $3.99 $3.99 $4.07 -$0.18 -$0.26
Angel of Invention $3.68 $3.71 $3.49 $3.27 -$0.03 +$0.41
Concealed Courtyard $3.60 $3.76 $3.75 $3.89 -$0.16 -$0.29
Botanical Sanctum $3.17 $3.39 $3.49 $3.70 -$0.22 -$0.53
Metallurgic Summonings $2.81 $2.94 $3.00 $3.32 -$0.13 -$0.51
Aether Hub $2.70 $2.88 $2.97 $3.23 -$0.18 -$0.53
Cataclysmic Gearhulk $2.46 $2.87 $3.06 $3.53 -$0.41 -$1.07
Scrapheap Scrounger $2.38 $2.50 $2.51 $2.76 -$0.12 -$0.38
Electrostatic Pummeler $2.08 $2.39 $2.60 $2.98 -$0.31 -$0.90
Rare Slot Average: $1.96 $2.04 $2.11 $2.25 -$0.08 -$0.29
Rare Slot Deviation: $3.09 $3.20 $3.27 $3.48 -$0.11 -$0.40
Total Set Value: $201.29 $207.22 $213.21 $226.69 -$5.93 -$25.40
Booster Box EV: $100.22 $104.89 $108.80 $115.65 -$4.67 -$15.43

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Mana Crypt $135.55 $136.49 $136.49 $140.13 -$0.94 -$4.58 Compared to Kaladesh's 2.7% drop, Kaladesh Inventions dropped by a little under 2%. The brunt of this can be traced to Mana Vault falling into line with its "strong in Commander, but only mild demand elsewhere" brethren. See this as a correction and don't panic-sell. It's a common trap for both Magic collectors and amateurs in the stock market to see something drop in value, then sell off before more value is lost without considering where the floor actually is. Given Kaladesh's overall EV is nearing its floor and that Kaladesh Inventions has a better future than its parent set, it's best simply to ride out these drops for now until we have a clearer picture of where Wizards of the Coast intends to take the Masterpiece sets.
Mana Vault $131.25 $144.99 $145.88 $149.98 -$13.74 -$18.73
Sol Ring $131.00 $130.00 $124.91 $126.50 +$1.00 +$4.50
Mox Opal $108.59 $115.16 $115.11 $120.63 -$6.57 -$12.04
Crucible of Worlds $99.97 $99.99 $97.98 $93.99 -$0.02 +$5.98
Aether Vial $98.45 $99.99 $99.99 $99.99 -$1.54 -$1.54
Sword of Fire and Ice $83.95 $85.49 $86.43 $85.99 -$1.54 -$2.04
Sword of Feast and Famine $83.45 $84.20 $83.24 $82.00 -$0.75 +$1.45
Sword of Light and Shadow $79.24 $78.00 $78.00 $78.34 +$1.24 +$0.90
Lotus Petal $76.94 $80.72 $82.53 $83.99 -$3.78 -$7.05
Chromatic Lantern $59.57 $59.98 $56.81 $57.67 -$0.41 +$1.90
Solemn Simulacrum $57.50 $57.75 $56.78 $56.92 -$0.25 +$0.58
Torrential Gearhulk $56.95 $57.00 $57.58 $60.24 -$0.05 -$3.29
Scroll Rack $50.98 $53.47 $52.65 $53.37 -$2.49 -$2.39
Lightning Greaves $50.00 $50.99 $50.45 $51.98 -$0.99 -$1.98
Steel Overseer $49.72 $49.88 $49.55 $49.95 -$0.16 -$0.23
Verdurous Gearhulk $48.39 $49.80 $51.48 $54.01 -$1.41 -$5.62
Rings of Brighthearth $46.36 $46.99 $44.96 $44.97 -$0.63 +$1.39
Chrome Mox $44.99 $45.00 $47.00 $47.50 -$0.01 -$2.51
Noxious Gearhulk $44.83 $44.80 $43.52 $42.99 +$0.03 +$1.84
Painter's Servant $40.91 $41.93 $42.71 $43.56 -$1.02 -$2.65
Combustible Gearhulk $39.99 $39.99 $39.99 $39.99 +$0.00 +$0.00
Cloudstone Curio $37.42 $38.64 $36.85 $39.31 -$1.22 -$1.89
Gauntlet of Power $36.90 $37.17 $37.49 $38.15 -$0.27 -$1.25
Hangarback Walker $35.97 $35.58 $35.00 $32.99 +$0.39 +$2.98
Sculpting Steel $34.99 $34.95 $34.95 $34.99 +$0.04 +$0.00
Mind's Eye $32.13 $32.64 $32.69 $32.97 -$0.51 -$0.84
Cataclysmic Gearhulk $30.41 $30.17 $32.40 $33.00 +$0.24 -$2.59
Static Orb $29.34 $29.99 $29.99 $31.32 -$0.65 -$1.98
Champion's Helm $26.12 $27.00 $26.42 $27.00 -$0.88 -$0.88
Invention Average: $62.73 $63.96 $63.66 $64.48 -$1.23 -$1.75
Invention Deviation: $31.96 $33.30 $33.03 $33.70 -$1.33 -$1.74
KLD Box EV: $15.68 $15.99 $15.92 $16.12 -$0.31 -$0.44
Total Set Value: $1,881.86 $1,918.75 $1,909.83 $1,934.42 -$36.89 -$52.56

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Liliana, the Last Hope $39.99 $40.76 $40.00 $40.50 -$0.77 -$0.51 Selfless Spirit corrects downward again this week, and the set's total value drops 2.1%. The top end of the set losing value doesn't have any significant offset by the lower end of the set, excepting the Flying Spaghetti Monster herself. There isn't really much to be said because making profit off Standard involves very little in the ways of long-term value and a lot of playing the market, meaning generalized advice often falls by the wayside in favour of what works best in a given meta and a given location. Liliana, at least, promises to remain stable throughout the near future.
Grim Flayer $20.82 $21.49 $21.19 $20.47 -$0.67 +$0.35
Emrakul, the Promised End $19.16 $18.67 $18.48 $18.83 +$0.49 +$0.33
Tamiyo, Field Researcher $10.64 $10.95 $10.77 $11.00 -$0.31 -$0.36
Gisela, the Broken Blade $10.05 $9.99 $9.99 $9.89 +$0.06 +$0.16
Selfless Spirit $9.38 $9.87 $8.89 $8.99 -$0.49 +$0.39
Ishkanah, Grafwidow $8.51 $8.10 $8.00 $8.14 +$0.41 +$0.37
Spell Queller $7.00 $7.00 $6.93 $6.99 +$0.00 +$0.01
Collective Brutality $6.18 $6.22 $6.08 $5.99 -$0.04 +$0.19
Thalia, Heretic Cathar $2.77 $2.89 $2.90 $2.95 -$0.12 -$0.18
Tree of Perdition $2.62 $2.75 $2.85 $2.89 -$0.13 -$0.27
Elder Deep-Fiend $2.50 $2.74 $2.93 $3.03 -$0.24 -$0.53
Eldritch Evolution $2.50 $2.83 $3.10 $3.42 -$0.33 -$0.92
Bedlam Reveler $2.19 $2.33 $2.38 $2.47 -$0.14 -$0.28
Summary Dismissal $2.12 $2.24 $2.23 $2.32 -$0.12 -$0.20
Collective Defiance $2.05 $2.33 $2.55 $2.99 -$0.28 -$0.94
Rare Slot Average: $2.25 $2.32 $2.30 $2.35 -$0.07 -$0.10
Rare Slot Deviation: $5.16 $5.24 $5.13 $5.16 -$0.08 +$0.00
Total Set Value: $206.08 $210.51 $209.45 $211.79 -$4.43 -$5.71
Booster Box EV: $97.13 $99.70 $100.00 $100.77 -$2.57 -$3.64

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Archangel Avacyn $20.50 $20.86 $19.99 $19.46 -$0.36 +$1.04 Outside of Jace gaining some value, there isn't really much to say about this set. There's a 1.7% drop in total set value, but given the low totals involved, that's not really saying much. Don't expect to see Fevered Visions on this list next week.
Nahiri, the Harbinger $17.98 $17.96 $18.00 $18.63 +$0.02 -$0.65
Jace, Unraveler of Secrets $9.81 $8.92 $7.99 $8.00 +$0.89 +$1.81
Thing in the Ice $7.84 $7.99 $8.15 $8.58 -$0.15 -$0.74
Arlinn Kord $7.09 $7.37 $7.82 $8.00 -$0.28 -$0.91
Sorin, Grim Nemesis $5.50 $5.90 $6.28 $6.49 -$0.40 -$0.99
Relentless Dead $5.48 $5.99 $6.79 $7.09 -$0.51 -$1.61
Declaration in Stone $5.13 $5.35 $5.51 $5.78 -$0.22 -$0.65
Tireless Tracker $4.27 $4.30 $4.24 $4.31 -$0.03 -$0.04
Game Trail $3.80 $3.74 $3.50 $3.40 +$0.06 +$0.40
Port Town $3.35 $3.37 $3.00 $3.00 -$0.02 +$0.35
Foreboding Ruins $3.19 $3.32 $3.19 $3.14 -$0.13 +$0.05
Prized Amalgam $3.18 $3.33 $3.69 $3.84 -$0.15 -$0.66
Westvale Abbey $2.95 $2.97 $3.10 $3.25 -$0.02 -$0.30
Traverse the Ulvenwald $2.90 $3.03 $3.33 $3.42 -$0.13 -$0.52
Olivia, Mobilized for War $2.50 $2.72 $3.07 $3.23 -$0.22 -$0.73
Fevered Visions $2.00 $2.10 $2.30 $2.45 -$0.10 -$0.45
Rare Slot Average: $1.36 $1.39 $1.43 $1.46 -$0.03 -$0.10
Rare Slot Deviation: $2.10 $2.10 $2.10 $2.17 +$0.00 -$0.07
Total Set Value: $190.64 $194.03 $197.30 $199.80 -$3.39 -$9.16
Booster Box EV: $64.82 $65.58 $68.56 $69.31 -$0.76 -$4.49

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet $20.94 $20.99 $20.99 $21.92 -$0.05 -$0.98 If there isn't much to be said for Shadows over Innistrad, there's even less to say for the entire Battle for Zendikar block. Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet carrying a full sixth of the set's value means that pinning your hopes and dreams on his performance isn't any more terrible than trying to predict meta shifts in the lower-value cards. Still, this set is not something to try and make much money off of.
Kozilek's Return $8.96 $9.49 $10.00 $10.77 -$0.53 -$1.81
Wandering Fumarole $5.75 $5.99 $5.99 $6.11 -$0.24 -$0.36
Thought-Knot Seer $5.42 $5.40 $5.41 $5.57 +$0.02 -$0.15
Nissa, Voice of Zendikar $5.41 $5.50 $5.65 $5.77 -$0.09 -$0.36
Chandra, Flamecaller $5.38 $5.93 $6.42 $6.75 -$0.55 -$1.37
Eldrazi Displacer $4.70 $4.76 $4.76 $4.80 -$0.06 -$0.10
Needle Spires $3.92 $4.09 $4.28 $4.45 -$0.17 -$0.53
Kozilek, the Great Distortion $3.50 $3.57 $3.65 $3.74 -$0.07 -$0.24
Hissing Quagmire $3.33 $3.36 $3.34 $3.42 -$0.03 -$0.09
World Breaker $3.19 $3.29 $3.37 $3.52 -$0.10 -$0.33
Reality Smasher $3.02 $3.15 $3.23 $3.39 -$0.13 -$0.37
Sylvan Advocate $2.98 $3.20 $3.50 $3.76 -$0.22 -$0.78
Crush of Tentacles $2.85 $2.99 $3.00 $3.15 -$0.14 -$0.30
Linvala, the Preserver $2.20 $2.21 $2.25 $2.28 -$0.01 -$0.08
Matter Reshaper $2.00 $2.24 $2.40 $2.57 -$0.24 -$0.57
Rare Slot Average: $1.56 $1.61 $1.65 $1.71 -$0.05 -$0.14
Rare Slot Deviation: $2.64 $2.69 $2.72 $2.85 -$0.05 -$0.21
Total Set Value: $128.41 $131.61 $134.01 $138.27 -$3.20 -$9.86
Booster Box EV: $77.05 $79.41 $80.67 $83.35 -$2.36 -$6.30

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Gideon, Ally of Zendikar $28.74 $29.45 $29.65 $28.77 -$0.71 -$0.03 I'm not going to put the Grumpy Cat emoticon here this week because that's the kind of thing that's only funny once. It still doesn't make the Dragon's Maze Syndrome this set suffers from any more bearable from a value standpoint. The most value anyone's likely to get by next week is on betting whether Dragonmaster Outcast falls off the list or not.
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger $13.10 $13.46 $13.82 $14.43 -$0.36 -$1.33
Ob Nixilis Reignited $3.89 $3.95 $4.32 $4.49 -$0.06 -$0.60
Cinder Glade $3.67 $3.67 $3.63 $3.66 +$0.00 +$0.01
Smoldering Marsh $3.59 $3.72 $3.72 $3.66 -$0.13 -$0.07
Drana, Liberator of Malakir $3.57 $3.70 $4.00 $4.10 -$0.13 -$0.53
Prairie Stream $3.51 $3.49 $3.51 $3.54 +$0.02 -$0.03
Part the Waterveil $3.45 $3.49 $3.51 $3.56 -$0.04 -$0.11
Shambling Vent $3.12 $3.10 $3.00 $3.01 +$0.02 +$0.11
Sunken Hollow $2.79 $2.81 $2.83 $2.89 -$0.02 -$0.10
Kiora, Master of the Depths $2.62 $2.69 $2.91 $2.95 -$0.07 -$0.33
Canopy Vista $2.05 $2.19 $2.36 $2.44 -$0.14 -$0.39
Dragonmaster Outcast $2.04 $2.07 $2.12 $2.15 -$0.03 -$0.11
Rare Slot Average: $1.22 $1.24 $1.27 $1.28 -$0.02 -$0.06
Rare Slot Deviation: $2.92 $2.99 $3.02 $2.98 -$0.07 -$0.06
Total Set Value: $138.06 $140.51 $143.42 $143.41 -$2.45 -$5.35
Booster Box EV: $71.37 $73.29 $75.86 $76.14 -$1.92 -$4.77

 

Card Name 12/08
Price
12/01
Price
11/24
Price
11/17
Price
Change:
12/01 to 12/08
Change:
11/17 to 12/08
Comments
Scalding Tarn $230.99 $233.09 $231.74 $234.81 -$2.10 -$3.82 At a 1.6% drop, Zendikar Expeditions is doing better than Kaladesh Inventions. As there exists no significant precedent for reprint subsets beyond the lacklustre Ugin's Fate promos, as well as no real indication of what future Masterpiece sets will bring, there's no way to know where the floor or ceilings are for these sets. However, for Standard sets, they're absolutely lower-risk than the playable sets, so shifting profits into picking up Expeditions to hold onto is not a bad idea.
Polluted Delta $202.36 $208.22 $209.99 $209.99 -$5.86 -$7.63
Misty Rainforest $195.42 $197.99 $194.15 $196.90 -$2.57 -$1.48
Verdant Catacombs $179.84 $175.32 $173.99 $175.32 +$4.52 +$4.52
Flooded Strand $155.00 $155.47 $150.89 $149.99 -$0.47 +$5.01
Arid Mesa $119.99 $119.95 $118.75 $119.24 +$0.04 +$0.75
Wasteland $116.18 $119.99 $124.57 $125.00 -$3.81 -$8.82
Wooded Foothills $111.92 $115.25 $116.54 $118.36 -$3.33 -$6.44
Windswept Heath $110.25 $114.99 $112.05 $113.99 -$4.74 -$3.74
Bloodstained Mire $109.26 $107.09 $105.90 $103.46 +$2.17 +$5.80
Ancient Tomb $109.05 $112.58 $105.80 $107.82 -$3.53 +$1.23
Horizon Canopy $97.67 $99.37 $99.95 $100.42 -$1.70 -$2.75
Marsh Flats $96.22 $98.38 $101.97 $100.25 -$2.16 -$4.03
Steam Vents $92.25 $94.49 $93.58 $94.78 -$2.24 -$2.53
Godless Shrine $83.99 $84.94 $83.24 $85.21 -$0.95 -$1.22
Overgrown Tomb $79.97 $81.82 $81.92 $82.01 -$1.85 -$2.04
Stomping Ground $76.95 $79.57 $79.56 $79.95 -$2.62 -$3.00
Breeding Pool $74.95 $74.95 $74.93 $74.81 +$0.00 +$0.14
Watery Grave $73.49 $73.42 $73.39 $73.49 +$0.07 +$0.00
Strip Mine $69.95 $70.33 $69.95 $69.72 -$0.38 +$0.23
Sacred Foundry $69.58 $69.80 $65.54 $67.58 -$0.22 +$2.00
Temple Garden $65.00 $69.95 $64.99 $65.74 -$4.95 -$0.74
Blood Crypt $62.99 $64.28 $62.99 $64.95 -$1.29 -$1.96
Hallowed Fountain $62.98 $63.94 $62.99 $63.94 -$0.96 -$0.96
Eye of Ugin $60.12 $61.90 $60.01 $60.63 -$1.78 -$0.51
Twilight Mire $59.95 $60.00 $59.95 $61.38 -$0.05 -$1.43
Cascade Bluffs $48.38 $49.95 $48.38 $49.68 -$1.57 -$1.30
Fetid Heath $47.95 $47.99 $47.97 $47.89 -$0.04 +$0.06
Mana Confluence $47.37 $48.94 $47.50 $47.47 -$1.57 -$0.10
Flooded Grove $46.27 $48.02 $48.59 $48.03 -$1.75 -$1.76
Mystic Gate $44.79 $45.72 $45.60 $45.44 -$0.93 -$0.65
Sunken Ruins $42.79 $42.93 $43.43 $43.74 -$0.14 -$0.95
Fire-Lit Thicket $40.66 $42.51 $42.51 $42.91 -$1.85 -$2.25
Wooded Bastion $36.74 $37.59 $37.31 $37.49 -$0.85 -$0.75
Rugged Prairie $34.99 $35.00 $37.64 $36.91 -$0.01 -$1.92
Graven Cairns $34.97 $35.09 $34.99 $35.62 -$0.12 -$0.65
Dust Bowl $34.93 $34.95 $34.93 $35.53 -$0.02 -$0.60
Forbidden Orchard $33.89 $33.93 $34.37 $35.26 -$0.04 -$1.37
Tectonic Edge $33.60 $34.95 $34.99 $35.96 -$1.35 -$2.36
Cinder Glade $32.83 $34.13 $33.45 $33.47 -$1.30 -$0.64
Kor Haven $32.16 $33.43 $33.95 $33.95 -$1.27 -$1.79
Prairie Stream $31.85 $32.62 $32.99 $33.74 -$0.77 -$1.89
Sunken Hollow $31.80 $32.55 $33.22 $33.49 -$0.75 -$1.69
Canopy Vista $30.79 $31.95 $32.03 $32.33 -$1.16 -$1.54
Smoldering Marsh $28.04 $29.89 $30.00 $30.95 -$1.85 -$2.91
BFZ Average: $96.35 $97.76 $96.83 $97.55 -$1.41 -$1.20
OGW Average: $53.62 $54.76 $54.62 $55.04 -$1.14 -$1.42
BFZ Box EV: $24.09 $24.44 $24.21 $24.39 -$0.35 -$0.30
OGW Box EV: $13.41 $13.69 $13.65 $13.76 -$0.28 -$0.36
Total Set Value: $3,481.12 $3,539.22 $3,513.18 $3,539.60 -$58.10 -$58.48

 

 

Overall Summary

 

The Magic market is doing what the Magic market does in the lull before a new spoiler season. Meta shifts will continue to dictate prices for the time being, and outside of that, the market's going to slow down until the new set is spoiled. Keep on top of spoilers and don't buy into early hype. The real money will stay in the sleeper cards that get passed over early on, while cards hyped to high heaven such as Chandra, Torch of Defiance can't possibly maintain their values. Don't listen to pundits or people who claim they can predict the market—for every person who can, there are dozens of people who can't, even in spaces dedicated to Magic finance. That's why The Magic Market Index focuses more on spotting trends than on identifying speculation targets, since a lot of Standard profiteering comes from creating movements, not following them, and this column can't possibly provide consistent targets on a once-a-week-basis. Except, of course, that you should always invest in a good guitar alter for Tezzeret, Master of Metal, because no respectable collection is going to be complete without one.

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