The Magic Market Index for October 7, 2015

 

Welcome to the Magic Market Index. This article series documents the price changes of cards in print. This article will track how cards go from release to its time out of Standard, and as long as deemed necessary for non-Standard sets, as well as offer insight into what cards to invest in and what to ignore. The Magic market is a dangerous place, and this article is here to help guide players and speculators through the murky waters to greater returns. 

 

This article will be updated once a week on Wednesdays. This will give time to let the market adept to changes in the meta and the market, as well as being late enough in the week that it is not completely unreliable prior to going into the Magic: the Gathering weekend events.

 

Currently, this article series is tracking Khans of Tarkir Block (Khans of Tarkir, Fate Reforged, and Dragons of Tarkir), Magic Origins, and Battle for Zendikar Block (Battle for Zendikar).  There are no current plans to track any promo sets or other non set releases. That means there will not be price data for Zendikar Expeditions.

 

 

A few things about the market before getting to the values and analysis. Sets in Standard follow a standard pattern in terms of value, in that they start out high during the prerelease and the first week or two of its release. Some cards spike during the first Star City Games Invitational, the first tournament that is Standard-legal and showcases several pros' work at breaking the set. Then comes the Pro Tour if it is Standard, which shows the results of the many of the best players in Magic deciding on the best.  Both of these tournaments will rise certain cards, and the rest of the set will lower due to three factors. Magic: the Gathering Online set redemptions, Limited play, and product being opened for non-limited play. The market gets flooded and prices go down. This continues until a few weeks after the next set starts this cycle, and then the previous set starts rising in value and continue until the a few weeks before the set starts to rotate when only cards that see plany in non-rotating formats will drop in value. This means the best time to invest is after the Pro Tour, but before the next set comes out. The worst times are at the beginning and end of its time in Standard and when the set stops being played in Limited.

 

Another aspect is always invest in dual lands as soon as possible. Having a good manabase will always serve a player better than having the "best" card in the set. Invest in dual lands, then desired cards, and then speculation. Also, when speculating, realize that demand is more important than profit margin. Having 200 copies of a card that spikes is not immediate value, as one has to unload that value. Stores will only buy so many of a card that spikes. Lastly, if a card spikes, that is not a sign that one should immediately buy in. Sometimes the card is a flash in the pan and crashes in value. Look at a card and determine if the card has both potential to be playable and rise. 

 

With that, it is time to discuss the price changes and what to look at. 

 

 

Battle for Zendikar

Name  

Change for

9/21 - 10/7

Change for   9/30 to 10/7   Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21 Price for 9/18    

Set Summary

 

The set is following the pattern of card valuess. Cards are dropping and should drop until the Pro Tour. Now is the time to speculate. Smothering Abomination, Radiant Flames, and a few others are good targets. The Expeditions are steadily going down, which as those decrease the ceiling on opening goes down. Gideon is the second most expensive mythic in Standard, with Jace leading the way. 

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar $8.01 $1.99 $35.00 $36.99 $34.95 $26.99 -
Drana, Liberator of Malakir $7.60 $0.34 $19.59 $19.93 $11.49 $11.99 -
Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger $3.21 $1.57 $18.73 $20.30 $20.99 $21.94 -
Ob Nixilis Reignited $2.74 $1.75 $17.00 $18.75 $19.58 $19.74 -
Undergrowth Champion $2.96 $1.14 $16.78 $17.92 $18.97 $19.74 -
Kiora, Master of the Depths $2.78 $1.17 $14.92 $16.09 $16.14 $17.70 -
Sunken Hollow $1.00 $1.15 $9.75 $10.90 $10.74 $10.75 -
Prairie Stream $0.63 $0.98 $9.00 $9.98 $9.86 $9.63 -
Canopy Vista $0.74 $0.99 $8.99 $9.98 $9.93 $9.73 -
Cinder Glade $0.24 $0.52 $7.75 $8.27 $7.99 $7.99 -
Shambling Vent $2.26 $0.26 $7.23 $7.49 $5.50 $4.97 -
Ruinous Path $0.37 $1.50 $6.99 $8.49 $7.84 $6.62 -
Smoldering Marsh $0.04 $0.19 $6.75 $6.94 $6.49 $6.79 -
Bring to Light $3.90 $1.10 $6.60 $7.70 $7.93 $2.70 -
Sire of Stagnation $5.84 $1.68 $5.99 $7.67 $8.49 $11.83 -
Greenwarden of Murasa $1.34 $0.83 $5.60 $6.43 $6.58 $6.94 -
Oblivion Sower $0.46 $0.05 $5.44 $5.39 $4.94 $4.98 -
Omnath, Locus of Rage $1.21 $0.59 $5.25 $5.84 $5.99 $6.46 -
Lumbering Falls $0.20 $0.50 $4.79 $5.29 $5.34 $4.99 -
Void Winnower $0.31 $0.46 $4.48 $4.94 $4.71 $4.79 -
Quarantine Field $0.21 $0.53 $4.45 $4.98 $4.98 $4.24 -
Dragonmaster Outcast $0.32 $0.11 $4.40 $4.29 $3.99 $4.08 -
Woodland Wanderer $0.01 $0.42 $3.57 $3.99 $3.70 $3.56 -
Scatter to the Winds $0.59 $0.18 $3.37 $3.19 $2.79 $2.78 -
Fathom Feeder $0.63 $0.64 $3.34 $3.98 $4.27 $3.97 -
Zada, Hedron Grinder $0.31 $0.29 $3.00 $3.29 $3.24 $3.31 -
Beastcaller Savant $0.35 $0.06 $2.93 $2.99 $2.99 $3.28 -
Endless One $0.66 $0.41 $2.61 $3.02 $2.86 $3.27 -
Part the Waterveil $1.35 $0.65 $2.54 $3.19 $2.97 $3.89 -
From Beyond $0.21 $0.39 $2.50 $2.89 $2.49 $2.29 -
Radiant Flames - $0.47 $2.45 $2.92 $2.64 - -
Brutal Expulsion $0.04 $0.33 $2.26 $2.59 $2.32 $2.30 -

 

 

Magic Origins

Name  

Change for

9/18 - 10/7

Change for   9/30 to 10/7   Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21 Price for 9/18    

Set Summary

 

The hype is not real. Jace is not a $70 card. It is close to the most expensive card ever in Standard.  Tarmogoyf at its height in Standard was $75, and Liliana of the Veil was around $65. Jace, the Mind Sculptor broke $100 off being truly degenerate. Otherwise, the set is following the lose value because everyone wants the new set part of the cycle.   

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy $26.04 $20.04 $69.99 $49.95 $48.57 $44.95 $43.95
Nissa, Vastwood Seer $1.23 $0.03 $23.73 $23.70 $24.24 $24.49 $24.96
Liliana, Heretical Healer $2.33 $0.60 $16.47 $17.07 $17.63 $18.46 $18.80
Hangarback Walker $1.70 $0.60 $15.79 $16.39 $17.53 $17.89 $17.49
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh $0.58 $0.07 $8.21 $8.28 $8.42 $8.68 $8.79
Kytheon, Hero of Akros $0.92 $0.17 $7.83 $8.00 $8.25 $8.49 $8.75
Abbot of Keral Keep $0.13 $0.04 $6.99 $6.95 $7.00 $7.10 $7.12
Archangel of Tithes $1.00 $0.30 $6.99 $7.29 $7.56 $7.89 $7.99
Exquisite Firecraft $1.21 $0.32 $6.02 $6.34 $6.66 $7.06 $7.23
Day's Undoing $1.24 $0.34 $4.16 $4.50 $4.83 $5.11 $5.40
Languish $0.43 $0.03 $4.04 $4.07 $4.17 $4.28 $4.47
Goblin Piledriver $0.75 $0.23 $3.76 $3.99 $4.16 $4.36 $4.51
Starfield of Nyx $0.62 $0.23 $3.42 $3.65 $3.84 $3.99 $4.04
Pyromancer's Goggles $0.46 $0.13 $3.37 $3.50 $3.65 $3.75 $3.83
Alhammarret's Archive $0.21 $0.10 $3.35 $3.45 $3.45 $3.50 $3.56
Demonic Pact $0.75 $0.25 $3.25 $3.50 $3.80 $3.95 $4.00
Woodland Bellower $0.51 $0.11 $3.21 $3.32 $3.49 $3.59 $3.72
Sword of the Animist $0.16 $0.00 $2.99 $2.99 $2.93 $2.85 $2.83
Managorger Hydra $0.42 $0.15 $2.75 $2.60 $2.49 $2.44 $2.33
Animist's Awakening $0.17 $0.11 $2.73 $2.84 $2.88 $2.89 $2.90
Evolutionary Leap $0.57 $0.31 $2.48 $2.79 $2.92 $3.00 $3.05
Erebos's Titan $0.81 $0.25 $2.18 $2.43 $2.65 $2.81 $2.99
Harbinger of the Tides $0.21 $0.06 $2.07 $2.13 $2.17 $2.23 $2.28

 

 

Dragons of Tarkir

Name  

Change for

9/18 - 10/7

Change for   9/30 to 10/7   Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21 Price for 9/18    

Set Summary

 

Atarka's Command, like Jace, will not hold its current price. It will not go down to less than $10 during its stay in Standard, and seems like it will be around $12 to $13. This set is one of the better boxes to get value from if one has the desire to crack a box for value. Other sets have a higher ceiling, but most of the value is concentrated at the top.

Deathmist Raptor $1.00 $0.18 $20.98 $21.16 $21.44 $21.67 $21.98
Dragonlord Ojutai $3.00 $1.56 $16.75 $15.19 $14.49 $13.94 $13.75
Atarka's Command $8.32 $7.26 $13.99 $6.73 $5.99 $5.70 $5.67
Kolaghan's Command $0.42 $0.02 $10.41 $10.43 $10.17 $10.03 $9.99
Den Protecter $1.04 $0.68 $10.16 $9.48 $9.11 $9.06 $9.12
Dragonlord Atarka $0.07 $0.02 $10.03 $10.01 $10.00 $10.00 $10.10
Shaman of Forgotten Ways $0.25 $0.04 $8.75 $8.79 $8.54 $8.65 $8.50
Narset Transcendent $0.11 $0.04 $8.54 $8.50 $8.50 $8.50 $8.43
Collected Company $0.37 $0.04 $8.03 $8.07 $8.13 $8.25 $8.40
Dragonlord Dromoka $0.47 $0.33 $7.50 $7.17 $7.14 $7.00 $7.03
Sarkhan Unbroken $0.14 $0.07 $7.00 $7.07 $7.12 $7.11 $7.14
Dragonlord Silumgar $0.08 $0.00 $5.15 $5.15 $5.14 $5.17 $5.23
Thunderbreak Regent $0.30 $0.16 $4.99 $4.83 $4.74 $4.71 $4.69
Dromoka's Command $1.18 $0.95 $4.33 $3.38 $3.25 $3.17 $3.15
Haven of the Spirit Dragon $0.15 $0.12 $3.62 $3.50 $3.49 $3.48 $3.47
Dragonlord Kolaghan $0.13 $0.01 $3.51 $3.52 $3.56 $3.59 $3.64
Dragon Whisperer $0.44 $0.15 $3.16 $3.01 $2.91 $2.81 $2.72
Ojutai's Command $0.71 $0.36 $2.84 $2.48 $2.22 $2.19 $2.13
Zurgo Bellstriker $0.16 $0.09 $2.54 $2.45 $2.40 $2.40 $2.38
Secure the Wastes $0.04 $0.03 $2.49 $2.46 $2.47 $2.46 $2.45
Descent of Dragons $0.09 $0.02 $2.16 $2.14 $2.10 $2.10 $2.07

 

 

Fate Reforged

Name  

Change for

9/18 - 10/7

Change for   9/30 to 10/7   Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21 Price for 9/18    

Set Summary

 

This set suffers from the lack of good card values most middle sets have.  It has potential, and Wild Slashes should be stocked up on from this set. 

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $0.28 $0.46 $26.39 $25.93 $26.21 $26.13 $26.67
Monastery Mentor $0.22 $0.47 $16.46 $15.99 $16.04 $16.07 $16.24
Soulfire Grand Master $0.14 $0.03 $8.80 $8.77 $8.81 $8.84 $8.94
Tasigur, the Golden Fang $1.52 $1.13 $6.50 $7.63 $7.94 $7.98 $8.02
Whisperwood Elemental $1.21 $0.96 $4.53 $5.49 $5.63 $5.65 $5.74
Warden of the First Tree $0.25 $0.16 $3.54 $3.70 $3.79 $3.80 $3.79
Brutal Hordechief $0.02 $0.06 $2.31 $2.25 $2.25 $2.28 $2.29

 

 

Khans of Tarkir

Name  

Change for

9/18 - 10/7

Change for   9/30 to 10/7   Price for 10/7 Price for 9/30 Price for 9/25 Price for 9/21 Price for 9/18    

Set Summary

 

The fetchlands are taking off again and will be going up for a little longer. Hold extra fetches for a few more weeks, and acquire as many as possible. If needed, get them now before they spike further. This set is poised to make a massive increase in value.

Polluted Delta $0.49 $0.52 $24.23 $23.71 $23.71 $23.58 $23.74
Flooded Strand $0.65 $0.60 $19.84 $19.24 $19.29 $19.09 $19.19
Wooded Foothills $0.79 $0.76 $17.75 $16.99 $16.99 $16.96 $16.96
Bloodstained Mire $1.89 $1.79 $14.95 $13.16 $13.25 $13.00 $13.06
Windswept Heath $1.43 $1.25 $12.50 $11.25 $11.30 $11.12 $11.07
Sorin, Solemn Visitor $0.55 $0.55 $8.54 $7.99 $7.99 $7.99 $7.99
See the Unwritten $1.28 $0.82 $7.14 $7.96 $7.99 $8.08 $8.42
Anafenza, the Foremost $2.02 $1.93 $6.50 $4.57 $4.53 $4.51 $4.48
Hardened Scales $3.04 $1.52 $5.52 $4.00 $3.39 $2.86 $2.48
Dig Through Time $0.18 $0.17 $5.31 $5.48 $5.48 $5.49 $5.49
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker $0.23 $0.12 $5.22 $5.10 $5.00 $5.00 $4.99
Wingmate Roc $0.63 $0.58 $3.60 $3.02 $3.00 $2.99 $2.97
Siege Rhino $0.03 $0.00 $3.59 $3.59 $3.59 $3.58 $3.62
Monastery Swiftspear $0.18 $0.14 $3.43 $3.29 $3.27 $3.21 $3.25
Rattleclaw Mystic $0.34 $0.26 $2.71 $2.45 $2.43 $2.42 $2.37
Clever Impersonator $0.04 $0.05 $2.49 $2.44 $2.44 $2.43 $2.45

 


 

Overall Summary

 

Hopefully everyone did well with the cracking of their packs and pulled some shiny lands. This is the lull between the Pro Tour and the first Standard major event. People are testing to see what will be good for the Pro Tour and refining decks tried at the previous SCG event. Atarka Red did well but that more because people were not adequately prepared for that deck. Expect the next to be more midrange and control, with a few aggro decks with removal to place. 

 

Here are some cards that look like good speculation targets:

 

Bloodsoaked Champion

Smothering Abomination

Radiant Flames

Rally the Ancestors

Butcher of the Horde

Wild slash

Flamewake Phoenix

From Beyond

Mantis Rider

Ojutai's Command

Planar Outburst

Rakshasa Deathdealer

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