Well, the entire set has been spoiled - and here's my initial thought on relevant cards for us:
First, no more relevant lands, which again means that we have to be mainly two-colors, splashing a third. However, there are many cards that are interesting.
Blue: Anticipate, a less extreme Impulse should see some play. Dance of the Skywise; a temporary 4/4 Dragon Illusion is a neat trick, but is probably not solid enough for competitive play. Dragonlord's Prerogative; an Opportunity with upside. Encase in Ice; a red/green specific Pacifism if you can find sideboard spots. Living Lore; someone is bound to find a way to break this card.. Mirror Mockery; as above -- there's got to be some interesting enter-the-board interactions. Ojutai's Breath; for just 3 mana and two activations, this seems good. Shorecrasher Elemental; for mono-blue -- is it enough to bring that archetype back? Silumgar's Scorn; fantastic card if you plan on having Dragons in your deck in standard (or Shapeshifters in modern).
Black Damnable Pact; sorcery speed card that requires life, probably will be too taxing unless we find a way of gaining life. Deadly Wanderings; we played cards like this before, it might again be feasible. However, there's much more enchantment removal available in todays environment. Defeat; at sorcery speed and with the 2 power restriction not good enough. Duress; is back... Flatten; way too expensive at 4 cmc (compare with Bile Blight, Sudden Death, Grasp of Darkness, Dismember). Foul-Tongue Invocation; an over-costed Diabolic Edict for the price of situational 4 life. I'm so mad they cut it from the set (the FFL apparently had it), making UB control "too strong". Self-inflicted Wound; perhaps sideboard hate against aura decks? Ultimate Price; is back. Standard could be interesting after Hero's Downfall rotates out.
Red Draconic Roar; with Dragons, this card is effective. Without, it's a more restrictive Lightning Strike. Dragon Fodder; is back. Rending Volley; is a cheaper Combust (with one less damage) that may have a place in Modern, perhaps even in Standard. Roast; is definitely playable. In Modern, Flame Slash does the job. Sarkhan's Triumph; given how important Dragons are in this set; an instant speed tutor should not be underestimated. Twin Bolt; seems great against mono-red and RW aggro. Thunderbreak Regent; a 4/4 flying Dragon for 4 that has a relevant ability seems pretty strong.
Turns 1-5 are really important and you want to be able to cast your spells. Hero's Downfall is 1BB, so with 27 lands you aim for 19 black sources. Dissolve similarly needs 19 blue sources. Empty the Pits is interesting due to Urborg. Tomb of Yawgmoth, but for a reliable turn 6 play, you'd have to get up towards 21 black sources. Magma Jet and Lightning Strike (I presume that's what you meant), is 1R, which requires about 13 red sources.
Your mana-base is 14 black, 8 blue and 8 red. To put it in perspective, you have a 90% chance of casting Magma Jet with 5 lands in play. And 90% chance of casting Hero's Downfall with 5 lands, and 90% chance of casting Dissolve with 8 or so lands.
Suffice to say, very often you will have lands but can't play your early-game spells. You have to add many more fetch-lands and dual-lands to make your deck work.
Example, just by using Evolving Wilds and life-gain lands from KTK you can get up to 17 blue, 18 black and 13 red source, which compares reasonably to UB-control lists such as Andrew Brown's that had 19 blue, 19 black and 3 colorless sources (28 lands). The difference of course is that this one has 15 comes-into-play-tapped lands, whereas his has 9 cipt lands.
@TheOtherGuy: Yes, I completely agree. The wedges got some phenomenal new spells (Crackling Doom, charms) and creatures, and they got great lands to support it (base of 4 wedge-lands, 8 enemy pain-lands and 4 allied fetch-lands). However, I believe the next set will not be completely wedge-based (instead using hybrid mana-symbols), thus shards could again become viable. It's not a Grixis only problem of course, Esper, Jund and Naya isn't seen much anymore.
@caffiend: Okay, I see. It's usually a rule of thumb to count 4 fetch-lands as 3 sources of colors that it can fetch. And yes, having way too many fetches may reduce your chance of drawing lands by a few percent - but I don't think that's the biggest problem with fetches right now. The main problem is that it forces you to play basics, thus providing too few sources. As an example, say you aim for 26 lands and want to cast 1BB, 1UU and 1R spells. Then you need 18 blue and black sources and 13 red sources. If you total it up, 18 + 18 + 13 = 49, which means that you can afford only 3 basics, since 3 basics and (26-3) dual lands give you 3 + 2 x 23 = 49 sources. With only 3 targets for fetch-lands, you can't really use more than 3 or 4 fetch-lands and that means that you end up with too many comes-into-play-tapped dual lands. [PS: Note the difference between the word "duel" (think two idiots pointing at each other with a 16th century gun) and "dual" (think duality, "double-ness"). So it's a "duel deck", but "dual lands".]
Changing topics and following up on my mana base problems I settled on 12U 12R 11B:
I don't understand. I'm counting 15U 14R 15B, 12 cipt lands. Please note that this means you can not consistently cast 1UU, 1RR nor 1BB spells on turn 3.
For what it's worth, here's my take on it, it is heavy on UB with a splash of R. I do not depend on sweepers much at all, instead trying to gain card-advantage through draw-spells.
How many red sources would we need to reliably cast Fated Conflagration? With us already wanting early red for Anger of the Gods, it seems like this could be a decent replacement for Hero's Downfall, allowing us to reduce black to a splash or even cut it entirely.
24 lands: 22 red sources
25 lands: 23 red sources
26 lands: 24 red sources
27 lands: 24 red sources
28 lands: 25 red sources
I think a BRu or URb list would probably be best, I'm not too sure which one though (just need BBBB late game). We do need to be able to cast Lightning Strike in the main and Anger of the Gods from the side early though. Could also work in more Murderous Cut in place of some Hero's Downfall, but I don't know how many cards with delve you can actually run along side Dig Through Time and Empty the Pits. Also, we need be be able to deal with Walkers.
It is possible to get a (19, 19, 13) mana-distribution, but it is going to be painful as you'll need 2 Mana Confluence:
This has 16 untapped sources and 11 tapped ones. With that much pain, you might want to change scry-lands to refugee-lands, or have some other form of life-gain. Alternatively accept that you'll have a lot of cipt-lands.
A 27-land deck requires 13 sources for a 90% success rate (assuming you have two lands) to cast a 1C spell. The mana I showed has only 10. Here's the table:
Needless to say, Dissolve won't be a card until turn 5. 14 blue sources is far from where you want to be. Also, it is a pipe-dream to imagine a consistent Anger of the Gods until turn 6.
This is a classic example of trying to pack 1UU-, 1BB- and 1RR-spells in the same deck. Don't do this. Fetch-lands are great, but they require basics. If you have 8 fetch lands and 8 basic lands, then without Mana Confluence or Evolving Wilds you can only get 8 + (27-8) * 2 = 46 sources in a 27-land deck. 1CC spells require 19 sources (in a 27-lander) and 3 * 19 = 57 sources.
Instead, focus on UB splashing red, or UR splashing black. That's quite doable, for instance the following mana-base works for UBr (19 blue, 19 black and 10 red sources):
Just a quick note on mana. I find that it is very hard to hit enough untapped sources. For instance, if you are aiming for a 25 land 17/17/13 distribution, then it requires 47 mana sources allowing you to play only 3 basics (or 2 basics plus one Urborg). You can't reasonably have more than 3 fetch-lands, so with that you end up with 3+3+4 UR pain-land, or 10 untapped mana sources out of 25, which is clearly quite low. You could of course turn to Mana Confluence, but that's going to be quite painful.
Instead, only a light splash of one color is prudent, e.g. a 18/18/8 distribution of sources, which allows you to play 6 basics, 6 fetch-lands and 4 UR pain-lands, or 16 untapped sources and 9 tapped sources, which seems quite a bit more reasonable.
12 red sources and Anger of the Gods is too low for turn 3 play.
Your only green spell is Sarkhan, at cmc 5, so you'll need 18 blue/18 red/11 green sources:
4 Shivan Reef
4 Temple of Epiphany
2 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Yavimaya Coast
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Mountain
1 Forest
1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
First, no more relevant lands, which again means that we have to be mainly two-colors, splashing a third. However, there are many cards that are interesting.
Blue:
Anticipate, a less extreme Impulse should see some play.
Dance of the Skywise; a temporary 4/4 Dragon Illusion is a neat trick, but is probably not solid enough for competitive play.
Dragonlord's Prerogative; an Opportunity with upside.
Encase in Ice; a red/green specific Pacifism if you can find sideboard spots.
Living Lore; someone is bound to find a way to break this card..
Mirror Mockery; as above -- there's got to be some interesting enter-the-board interactions.
Ojutai's Breath; for just 3 mana and two activations, this seems good.
Shorecrasher Elemental; for mono-blue -- is it enough to bring that archetype back?
Silumgar's Scorn; fantastic card if you plan on having Dragons in your deck in standard (or Shapeshifters in modern).
Black
Damnable Pact; sorcery speed card that requires life, probably will be too taxing unless we find a way of gaining life.
Deadly Wanderings; we played cards like this before, it might again be feasible. However, there's much more enchantment removal available in todays environment.
Defeat; at sorcery speed and with the 2 power restriction not good enough.
Duress; is back...
Flatten; way too expensive at 4 cmc (compare with Bile Blight, Sudden Death, Grasp of Darkness, Dismember).
Foul-Tongue Invocation; an over-costed Diabolic Edict for the price of situational 4 life. I'm so mad they cut it from the set (the FFL apparently had it), making UB control "too strong".
Self-inflicted Wound; perhaps sideboard hate against aura decks?
Ultimate Price; is back. Standard could be interesting after Hero's Downfall rotates out.
Red
Draconic Roar; with Dragons, this card is effective. Without, it's a more restrictive Lightning Strike.
Dragon Fodder; is back.
Rending Volley; is a cheaper Combust (with one less damage) that may have a place in Modern, perhaps even in Standard.
Roast; is definitely playable. In Modern, Flame Slash does the job.
Sarkhan's Triumph; given how important Dragons are in this set; an instant speed tutor should not be underestimated.
Twin Bolt; seems great against mono-red and RW aggro.
Thunderbreak Regent; a 4/4 flying Dragon for 4 that has a relevant ability seems pretty strong.
Multi
Dragonlord Kolaghan; haste is nice, but we probably have better finishers.
Kolaghan's Command; this is actually a pretty neat card, I might want to experiment with it in Modern.
Dragonlord Silumgar; a bit disappointing, how did he lose his hex proof ability ( Silumgar, the Drifting Death?
Silumgar's Command; at 5 cmc definitely a huge disappointment. Perhaps as a 1 or 2-of?
Turns 1-5 are really important and you want to be able to cast your spells. Hero's Downfall is 1BB, so with 27 lands you aim for 19 black sources. Dissolve similarly needs 19 blue sources. Empty the Pits is interesting due to Urborg. Tomb of Yawgmoth, but for a reliable turn 6 play, you'd have to get up towards 21 black sources. Magma Jet and Lightning Strike (I presume that's what you meant), is 1R, which requires about 13 red sources.
Your mana-base is 14 black, 8 blue and 8 red. To put it in perspective, you have a 90% chance of casting Magma Jet with 5 lands in play. And 90% chance of casting Hero's Downfall with 5 lands, and 90% chance of casting Dissolve with 8 or so lands.
Suffice to say, very often you will have lands but can't play your early-game spells. You have to add many more fetch-lands and dual-lands to make your deck work.
Example, just by using Evolving Wilds and life-gain lands from KTK you can get up to 17 blue, 18 black and 13 red source, which compares reasonably to UB-control lists such as Andrew Brown's that had 19 blue, 19 black and 3 colorless sources (28 lands). The difference of course is that this one has 15 comes-into-play-tapped lands, whereas his has 9 cipt lands.
4 Dismal Backwater
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Bloodfell Caves
2 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Evolving Wilds
4 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
What I will be looking for in the next sets are allied duals. For instance, they could reprint Adarkar Wastes, Underground River, Sulfurous Springs, Karplusan Forest and Brushland in order to complete the pain-land cycle.
I don't understand. I'm counting 15U 14R 15B, 12 cipt lands. Please note that this means you can not consistently cast 1UU, 1RR nor 1BB spells on turn 3.
4 Jorubai Murk Lurker
2 Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
2 Keranos, God of Storms
// Spells (26)
4 Nullify
4 Hero's Downfall
4 Dissolve
3 Steam Augury
3 Font of Fortunes
2 Dig Through Time
2 Negate
2 Bile Blight
2 Despise
2 Island
2 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Mana Confluence
4 Shivan Reef
4 Temple of Deceit
1 Temple of Malice
3 Dismal Backwater
3 Disdainful Stroke
1 Pearl Lake Ancient
1 Liliana Vess
3 Drown in Sorrow
3 Circle of Flame
2 Negate
2 Bile Blight
24 lands: 22 red sources
25 lands: 23 red sources
26 lands: 24 red sources
27 lands: 24 red sources
28 lands: 25 red sources
It is possible to get a (19, 19, 13) mana-distribution, but it is going to be painful as you'll need 2 Mana Confluence:
2 Mana Confluence
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstrained Mire
4 Shivan Reef
4 Temple of Malice
1 Temple of Epiphany
2 Dismal Backwater
This has 16 untapped sources and 11 tapped ones. With that much pain, you might want to change scry-lands to refugee-lands, or have some other form of life-gain. Alternatively accept that you'll have a lot of cipt-lands.
A 27-land deck requires 13 sources for a 90% success rate (assuming you have two lands) to cast a 1C spell. The mana I showed has only 10. Here's the table:
27 lands:
U: 14 (7 enters tapped)
B: 19 (7 enters tapped)
R: 12 (6 enters tapped)
Needless to say, Dissolve won't be a card until turn 5. 14 blue sources is far from where you want to be. Also, it is a pipe-dream to imagine a consistent Anger of the Gods until turn 6.
This is a classic example of trying to pack 1UU-, 1BB- and 1RR-spells in the same deck. Don't do this. Fetch-lands are great, but they require basics. If you have 8 fetch lands and 8 basic lands, then without Mana Confluence or Evolving Wilds you can only get 8 + (27-8) * 2 = 46 sources in a 27-land deck. 1CC spells require 19 sources (in a 27-lander) and 3 * 19 = 57 sources.
Instead, focus on UB splashing red, or UR splashing black. That's quite doable, for instance the following mana-base works for UBr (19 blue, 19 black and 10 red sources):
2 Swamp
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
1 Bloodstrained Mire
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
3 Temple of Malice
3 Temple of Epiphany
4 Dismal Backwater
2 Swiftwater Cliffs
This mana-base won't allow for Lightning Strike, but Steam Augury is fine.
1 Plains
2 Swamp
4 Battlefield Forge
4 Caves of Koilos
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Temple of Malice
4 Nomad Outpost
Here's for instance a UBr mana-base, with 18, 18, 8 distribution of sources (I should probably fit Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth though):
4 Swamp
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
4 Shivan Reef
1 Temple of Epiphany
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Dismal Backwater
And a URb mana-base:
2 Swamp
2 Mountain
3 Polluted Delta
3 Bloodstained Mire
4 Shivan Reef
4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
1 Mystic Monastery
Instead, only a light splash of one color is prudent, e.g. a 18/18/8 distribution of sources, which allows you to play 6 basics, 6 fetch-lands and 4 UR pain-lands, or 16 untapped sources and 9 tapped sources, which seems quite a bit more reasonable.