MTG Salvation

@Dota Welcome to the right side of history. Can you talk about the KJ distancing read though. I'm really confused what you think the significance of it is. KJ is more likely to be town because he pointed out an interaction could be distancing? Are you an MTG player? Because Axel is right that Time Walk and Ancestral really do massively overshadow Timetwister to a massive degree. So if anything I'd put KJ making a point of it more likely to KJ trying to generate an interaction than anything to do with Axel. Now I'm not going to scum read him over it because that would be ridiculous, but I think I'd put it as a tiny unaligned between KJ and Axel if KJ were to flip scum. Think it's entirely meaningless from Axel's side though. His flip would mean nothing towards KJs.

I don't have a big problem with the ordering of either group (KJ, Dota, and Cantrip are murky soup) but I'm curious as to why you're "decently sure" that we're in a 1 and 1 situation? Based on the groupings it doesn't seem to be a team based read so I'm guessing it's some sort of game flow thing?

Calling my voting record abysmal is funny.

GJ doesn't really feel like a wolf here. Proph does. DV feels town. Wisp feels town. Axel feels town.

I can't remember a single post of KJs.

KJ and Cantrip I have nothing on


Dota had a few town pings in tone but not enough that I really got there on him. Definitely liked his version of the KJ special where he just did his own thing and chased it down.

KJ's hammer is just one of those black boxes that I just can't evaluate. I can project anything into it and it's just not as indicative as I want it to be. I like his posting being in his own world just chasing his own leads and not worrying about the larger game state. Usually points to town!KJ.

Proph: wolf
DoTA: wolf
Cantrip: wolf
Wisp: Town
Axelrod: town
KJ: Wolf

Have everyone but Wisp and Axel at slightly above random to be a wolf.

Ohhh. Well that's what I get for relying on the first post where he is janitored or something.

The game feels so relaxed. Maybe it's just weekend things but KJ and Axel didn't feel like people trying break the PoE open as scum.

The GJ was a sunk cost for you because of the Osie defense from early. Was a freeroll especially since your pivot target was me. Odds were against you stopping the wagon or permanently saving GJ if he did survive were next to nil. You lose nothing by defending him there and gain this line of defense. The only way it hurts you is if GJ survives and clears himself to the point where you have to NK him which was exceedingly unlikely.

The activity argument isn't as much of a slam dunk for you as it used to be but it's definitely a point in your favor. As is the EoD exchange with DV. Which is why I haven't vote you yet. I can make an active case on you but have doubts. With Eco, KJ, and Dota I can't really make a proactive case so I'm just kind of waiting for them to do something or to vote one at near random.

Been working on it. Definitely think the first is Proph. The second is probably Eco or KJ. Dota feels like the miss Proph is trying to push through before going to the rest of the PoE. Gun to my head I'd lean KJ right now but that will probably change as I do the reading today.

Grapefruit21
Axelrod
KJ
Prophylaxis
LastWhisper
DOTArchon
Ecophagy

I'm town.

Axel is never under pressure today. His ISO's have been pretty agendaless and have shown a sort of progression. It's lacking the curiosity that would lock the read in to ride or die but it's at the place where I wouldn't reevaluate him before a F3.

Wisp is just a bit below this for me. He's been mostly himself bouncing around and inconsistent with reads. The only time where there was any whiff of an agenda was at the EoD1 but that's gone again D2 and I'm currently happy to slot him into town.

Grapefruit21
Axelrod

LastWhisper
KJ
Prophylaxis
DOTArchon
Ecophagy

Proph just keeps coming back to scum for me. There just is an undercurrent of agenda to a lot of what he's doing. The Osie clear and urging to reveal the identity. The utterly bizarre in retrospect scum read and reversal on DV. The super eager to kill me to being more or less fine with me on D2. The complete focus on Dota before the last couple of hours. Just feels like he's pushing the game where he wants it to be rather than following what he's reading.

As a result I don't want Dota to die. Proph is absolutely trying to get him killed. He is clearly the dedicated condemn today and we should not kill him. He's been an absolute wet noodle but he's not scum with Proph and Proph is scum here.

That leaves Eco and KJ. Going to sort them. Eco has made a good inital impression on me but not enough to really get anywhere yet. KJ deciding to try and push Wisp in his 1 active wolf 1 lurking wolf theory is definitely standing out to me right about now.

Grapefruit21
Axelrod

LastWhisper
DOTArchon

Ecophagy
KJ

Prophylaxis

Vote: Proph

Because Proph is my strongest scum read. And if I'm right Dota isn't scum. So if we're not doing Proph I want to vote KJ. Because he and Proph have kind of been on similar pages here. At this point in a game you can't have your reads in a vacuum. You're asking me to evaluate Dota and KJ independent of my read on Proph. And I'm just not going to do that. I'll read their posts on their own merits but for overall reads you have to connect these things.

WHy doesn't it feel like KJ? I was town reading him earlier but his townie floatiness has diminished a bit and he's been more reactive lately. It has felt more and more like him to me.

@Proph I'll respond to the rest later but if you were confirmed town I'd have to completely reevaluate but my initial guess would be Dota/Eco.

Okay Proph isn't happening today.

Vote: KJ

Definitely prefer this over Dota and I think I prefer it over Eco. Dota isn't buddied with Proph as I've said before. His reevaluation today doesn't mean as much because he's already been called out on it. As for Eco his heavy interactions with Proph don't strike me as W/W stuff. Feels like Eco is genuinely trying to figure Proph out despite having him as a town read. Time to actually read the walls and reply to stuff.

Okay but that line of thought doesn't mesh with you finding Wisp to be a bit scummy. Because if Dota is being pushed as the fall guy then it isn't scum making that push. I guess Wisp is technically on Dota but he's much more interested in pushing you. Build a team for me. If someone in that pool isn't a high priority and there is a deep wolf what is happening? Just stating that idea and not chasing it down isn't a town thought. It's the appearance of trying to think holistically about the game without actually doing it.

Why would you assume you're living in the higher win% world? People are always trying to maximize their win% doesn't mean they're doing it effectively.

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Vote: Grapefruit21

For jumping a second vote on a town player before that player entered the thread.

On a scale of RVS to Final 3 how serious is this vote?

Firmly RVS.

Actually, have you considered it seriously? This game size is 3/4 of the usual size. From a theory standpoint, is the second vote on a hypothetical town player in RVS actually be more significant than not?

It might actually be.

I need to reread Grape honestly because I just straight up don't remember things from him.

Grape has 4 wolf reads in the GTHH in 775, which is unusual for scum to do. Also his progression on his reads feel natural.

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K so I think based on gameflow, perhaps the scum build of this game is one low poster/one high poster. This game doesn't feel overly dominated by scum (there's not like a couple townreads dominating the game that were somehow not nightkilled N1 or something like that) so not exactly Wisp/Proph.

What would a game dominated by scum feel like? Just a weird N1 kill? Are there other things you'd expect to see?

Too much consensus (which could also mean that scum are sitting back and enjoy the game state) but that's not happening here. Or like, psudo consensus where town doesn't have to fight hard for their scumreads because scum knows they're wrong.

This game, we can't seem to come to a conclusion on who is the scum and who is not.

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Too much consensus (which could also mean that scum are sitting back and enjoy the game state) but that's not happening here. Or like, psudo consensus where town doesn't have to fight hard for their scumreads because scum knows they're wrong.

This game, we can't seem to come to a conclusion on who is the scum and who is not.

I pretty strongly disagree with that assessment that the game isn't like that. There is broad consensus that Axel, Wisp, and Proph are townie (I'm a lone voice yelling against Proph. Wisp occasionally agrees with me but doesn't want to act on it first). There is broad consensus that the pool of Eco, you, and Dota contains at least one scum. D1 was pretty consensus'y on Osie/GJ right up till the end and still went back to it.

What makes you think that this game doesn't have consensus when Dota has been at majority -2 multiple times today and has m-1 in spirit from Proph?

Yeah there's gonna be SOME, but not TOO MUCH is my point.

Yeah there's a poE today of me. Eco and DotA have scum. That doesn't mean that that pool is all town, it likely just means that the scum isn't a high priority in it.

The scum would think in that case that they can survive the Day if we yeet the scummiest of those players. I'm guessing it's probably Eco if DotA is being so heavily pushed for (unless there's some bussing going on)

Now, it's not 2 high posters because this game doesn't feel like the game isn't being dominated by scum.
I guess it could be two low posters, if that's the case, it's likely just DotA/Eco. I don't recall Cantrip or DotA really getting much flak D1 so there's a possiblilty for them to potentially coast through the first day, but now the new Day brought DotA being under fire, with Cantripslot kinda getting some today as well.
A similar case can be made for 1 middle 1 low, with the middling player not really being a driving force for scum. In this case Axel or Grape would be the middle player with Eco or DotA being the low.
1 middle 1 high would feel pretty similar to 2 high, but just not as much. I do not think this is the case.
2 middle would mean that Grape and Axel are scum together, and if that's the case, they are kinda just having the luckiest game ever. Their gameplan is kinda just "act townie and hope we don't get yeeted" which... would be working I suppose. Would scumGrape+scum!Axel do that? I think at the very least Axel would be doing more to increase their win percentage, as just hoping not to be yeeted doesn't usually work out very well.
1 high 1 low would have one person doing all the work with the other just kinda trying to survive, although if Eco is the low player he's made quite an effort to catch up and do things so maybe it would feel different in cases with scum!Eco. I think D1 there was a drive to yeet town from somewhere, and that might have come from scum.

@Grape: I generally assume players play to win as best they can. If players aren't doing that, I feel like they would compensate somehow.

I think that it's probable that one of the people actively pushing me (DotA, Wisp, with a side of Grape possibly) are scum. DotA's pretty all in on that, Wisp keeps coming back to it, Grape is pushing me over two scummier slots. I'm in a good position for scum here, being the townie that other townies would like to yeet. I'm scummy enough to get a good wagon on me but not so much that there's too much consensus there. So DotA, Wisp, Grape. Looking into them now.