I would like it better if it always had trample.
As it is now, I just don't like it better than other green beaters.
It just doesn't fit with green's other powerhouse cards; Genesis Wave, Green Sun's, or Birthing Pod.
It looked pretty clear from Moan of the Unhallowed that the next block will contain flashback; I would be surprised if it didn't show up in INN.
Flashback is interesting, and it adds to the complexity of the board state.
I am a little worried about how this set will work with SoM block. Recently the blocks never seem to work well together and the previous block decks dominate with few new cards. The amount of support added in M12 makes me think the two blocks don't work well together and they needed to print support in the core set.
If you are using it early to get a land, Ponder is much much better. You don't want to put your business spells on the bottom of your library just to get to a land. Doing so will reduce your future draws by the before mentioned .16 to 2%.
Preordain takes 3 or so draws before it catches up to Ponder, and it needs to only place cards on the bottom that you never want to see again (not just ones you don't want right now.)
It hasn't been mentioned a lot here, but Preordain is Insane in multiples! This is probably the best argument for using it. As the benefits to future draws stack.
Preordain also gets better the more you draw, as you are able to take advantage of the small increase in future card quality. If you don't have any ways to draw cards then Ponder is probably better.
Preordain's "smoothing" effect is simular to using a fetch land to thin out your deck. Except in this case, if you shuffle your deck the effect will be negated.
Preordain becomes better as the ratio of good cards to bad cards gets higher:
Let's assume that there are 50 cards in deck and you are looking for somewhere between 4 to 25 cards. For each card you put on the bottom of your deck, you increase your chance of drawing 'good cards' by about .16%--1%.
If half of your cards are 'live' then placing two cards on the bottom will increase your 'live' drawing chance by 1%. If there are only 8 dead draws, tanking two will increase this to 2%.
Ponder has a 7%--11% better chance of finding a live card as an immediate effect, and no effect on the game afterwards.
The difference with ponder is that you might end up finding a live card and some dead cards. In this case, it requires analyzing the chance of a better sequence happening on a shuffle. We would need to look at a more complex utility-based method of analyzing if it is 'worth it' to keep the dead draws or if it is better to shuffle.
This means that Ponder is the more skill intensive of the two cards. This should be obvious as choosing between good/bad is easier than weighing the pros and cons of your ponder pull.
Preordain became a staple because of the synergy with Jace, not because it is "so much better" than ponder. Using the evidence of "everyone used preordain" isn't valid.
Without Jace the differences between the cards are pretty small.
Black can hit hard with hand disruption (kill some ramp spells, etc.) It also has the removal package to deal with splinter twin.
UG poison is pretty strong too, it can be faster than splinter-twin and Valakut. But with everyone running dismember (which against poison has no drawback) it can have some tough times.
Garruk is powerful and will see at least as much play as his 1.0 version.
His 1.0 was mainly used when you were looking to abuse overrun or tokens.
Garruk 2 is better in token decks (Eldrazi monument is happy) one of the reasons people ran Nissa (for that short time) was for the +1 get a dude.
People's main arguements against him seem to be that a 3/3 for 5 is bad... as if Elspith was a 1/1 for 4...
It is true that if you are in topdeck mode with nothing on the board, garruk will not come down and win the game. But, he isn't that bad either as he can buy you some time.
This Garruk seals the game, if you are in any kind of board position he will push you over the top. I think he is Jace-like, in the sense that if you untap with him you are heavily favored to win. He is also Jace-like in that he can draw three cards!
Powerful card for mono-green... but green is pretty weak in Scars block so that might hurt him.
Also: Beast Within can provide an Instant speed 3/3 if you really need it for Garruk. They aim removal at your 3/3 beast, in response you use Beast Within on it... seems like a decent play.
You probably already o-ringed something before you cast venser, so it is out on the field.
Use Venser's +2 ability, as the trigger to return goes to the stack, end your turn.
It is now gone forever.
At the end of your opponent's turn, you get to O-ring something else.
Works with Glimmer Stag as well... seems good for a venser deck since you would be running most of those cards anyway.
I think I would like untap triggers like the stations better than a Urza-tron mechanic.
Untap triggers would make it possible to use parts of the set in other situations.
Though, if the Scepter untapped whenever an opponent's creature became tapped... well it might be pretty unreasonable.
Jace sees lots of play at 3cmc, but that is because he starts drawing cards right away.
He can also survive better with +2.
However, Jace can't shut down a game, Liliana can.
Top-deck mode vs. Liliana 2.0 is going to be a sad time.
All in all, her power will depend on how many cards will benefit you from discarding.
As it is now, I just don't like it better than other green beaters.
It just doesn't fit with green's other powerhouse cards; Genesis Wave, Green Sun's, or Birthing Pod.
Quest for the Gemblades and Strength of the Tajuru do like this guy though.
I expect mono-green will still cause some problems at FNMs that will cause people to cry out "I just lost to not-a-deck."
Flashback is interesting, and it adds to the complexity of the board state.
I am a little worried about how this set will work with SoM block. Recently the blocks never seem to work well together and the previous block decks dominate with few new cards. The amount of support added in M12 makes me think the two blocks don't work well together and they needed to print support in the core set.
Is it fair to call it new?
Preordain takes 3 or so draws before it catches up to Ponder, and it needs to only place cards on the bottom that you never want to see again (not just ones you don't want right now.)
It hasn't been mentioned a lot here, but Preordain is Insane in multiples! This is probably the best argument for using it. As the benefits to future draws stack.
Preordain also gets better the more you draw, as you are able to take advantage of the small increase in future card quality. If you don't have any ways to draw cards then Ponder is probably better.
Preordain becomes better as the ratio of good cards to bad cards gets higher:
Let's assume that there are 50 cards in deck and you are looking for somewhere between 4 to 25 cards. For each card you put on the bottom of your deck, you increase your chance of drawing 'good cards' by about .16%--1%.
If half of your cards are 'live' then placing two cards on the bottom will increase your 'live' drawing chance by 1%. If there are only 8 dead draws, tanking two will increase this to 2%.
Ponder has a 7%--11% better chance of finding a live card as an immediate effect, and no effect on the game afterwards.
The difference with ponder is that you might end up finding a live card and some dead cards. In this case, it requires analyzing the chance of a better sequence happening on a shuffle. We would need to look at a more complex utility-based method of analyzing if it is 'worth it' to keep the dead draws or if it is better to shuffle.
This means that Ponder is the more skill intensive of the two cards. This should be obvious as choosing between good/bad is easier than weighing the pros and cons of your ponder pull.
Without Jace the differences between the cards are pretty small.
This card is pretty neat... however, I think Batterskull is better in almost any situation.
UG poison is pretty strong too, it can be faster than splinter-twin and Valakut. But with everyone running dismember (which against poison has no drawback) it can have some tough times.
His 1.0 was mainly used when you were looking to abuse overrun or tokens.
Garruk 2 is better in token decks (Eldrazi monument is happy) one of the reasons people ran Nissa (for that short time) was for the +1 get a dude.
People's main arguements against him seem to be that a 3/3 for 5 is bad... as if Elspith was a 1/1 for 4...
It is true that if you are in topdeck mode with nothing on the board, garruk will not come down and win the game. But, he isn't that bad either as he can buy you some time.
This Garruk seals the game, if you are in any kind of board position he will push you over the top. I think he is Jace-like, in the sense that if you untap with him you are heavily favored to win. He is also Jace-like in that he can draw three cards!
Powerful card for mono-green... but green is pretty weak in Scars block so that might hurt him.
Also: Beast Within can provide an Instant speed 3/3 if you really need it for Garruk. They aim removal at your 3/3 beast, in response you use Beast Within on it... seems like a decent play.
You probably already o-ringed something before you cast venser, so it is out on the field.
Use Venser's +2 ability, as the trigger to return goes to the stack, end your turn.
It is now gone forever.
At the end of your opponent's turn, you get to O-ring something else.
Works with Glimmer Stag as well... seems good for a venser deck since you would be running most of those cards anyway.
I think I would like untap triggers like the stations better than a Urza-tron mechanic.
Untap triggers would make it possible to use parts of the set in other situations.
Though, if the Scepter untapped whenever an opponent's creature became tapped... well it might be pretty unreasonable.
Pod decks need this as they really depend on Birthing Pod.
Still, post-rotation Inkmoth Nexus is basically a 4 of in every deck so it might be hard to make room for this guy.
Lavamancer + Lightning Bolt + Incinerate!!
Add in potential Goblin Grenades!!
Even after losing Goblin Guide and Lightning Bolt red is pretty strong.
"Big Red" is a pretty strong deck in Block Constructed.
Chandra's Phoenix, Kuldotha Phoenix, and Shrine of Burning Rage give red some powerful long game that the color normally lacks.
I think Red will be fine... grab your Phoenixes and Koths now.
I love this art.