No offense taken! Discussions like these are important for tuning a deck.
A few comments on the deck in general:
Cryptic Command
-With 19 lands the deck will only hit 4 mana sources by turn 5 about half the time; there are many games where I win with only 2 or 3 lands in play.
-The deck already has plays at 4 mana with Snapcaster Mage flashing back a Mana Leak or Remand. The advantage to using Snapcaster Mage as top of the curve is the flexibility. Snapcaster Mage can be cast at 3 or even 2 mana.
-In conclusion, I would not recommend playing Cryptic Command in this deck as, while powerful, it deviates from the strategy encouraged by the core of the deck.
Tectonic Edge
-Running a couple can help keep Mana Leak and Spell Pierce relevant in the mid to late game as well as preventing an opponent from casting certain spells.
Aggro-Control (Tempo) Archetype
-In many matchups (for example, Bogles), since the answers run are more efficient than powerful, aggro-control decks are not able to stop every card the opponent plays. In these cases it's important to identify which cards are important to fight over and which cards are fine to ignore (as opposed to a dedicated control deck like UWr that run a higher number of and more powerful answers). Young Pyromancer gives the deck the flexibility to divert resources from cards that would otherwise demand an answer (Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf).
As stated in the primer, the conclusions posted in the matchups section are from data taken from multiple MTGO Daily events from about a year ago. Since then the metagame has changed a lot and the matchups could be vastly different (I haven't played this deck in quite a while; I've been mostly playing legacy).
I think the major differences in matchup experience may be from how my deck was constructed compared to many of the builds run today. The build in the primer looks very similar to current builds with a few differences that greatly impacts the Bogles (I went 7-0 in recorded matches) and UWr control (5-2) matchups. Again, since the sample size is finite, variance could play a large role in the conclusions.
-3 Spell Pierce main. This card is very strong and has won many games against both Bogles and UWr control. Against Bogles the primary goal is to prevent specific, key auras from being combined on a single creature. Being able to play threats while holding up a counterspell for 1 mana helps a lot. Against UWr the primary goal is to protect your creatures. Spell Pierce usually trades for removal, which is key in this matchup. Postboard, having 7 one mana counters (adding 2 Dispel), is very powerful against a deck trying to resolve 4 mana spells (Cryptic Command).
-2 Tectonic Edge main. This card helps against UWr control as preventing them from hitting double white mana is key (Supreme Verdict cannot be countered), as well as removing Celestial Colonnade.
-1 Blood Moon main, 1 in the board. This card shuts down Bogles' manabase as well as being very strong against UWr. I often board it out if I cast it in a previous game as they will tend to fetch basics and bring in enchantment removal. This slows down their deck and forces them to bring in sub-optimal cards.
-2 Mutavault main. This card helps against UWr by having a threat that cannot be removed with Supreme Verdict.
-1 Vendilion Clique main, 1 in the board. This card helps against Bogles once both decks are in topdeck mode and can provide a clock without tapping out by casting at the opponent's endstep. Very strong against UWr control as you can cast it on their end step (I tend to avoid casting it on their draw step unless both decks are in topdeck mode as it becomes vulnerable to sorcery speed effects).
These cards seem to have been replaced by cards like Vapor Snag, Sword of Fire and Ice, and Electrolyze, which while may be very good in other matchups, seem to be relatively weak against both Bogles and UWr control.
This deck requires very careful tuning to the metagame, as can be seen by the drastically different results from changing just a few cards.
UR Delver decks aim to establish a clock early in the game and disrupt the opponent using counters and burn spells that double as reach and removal. As the deck ideally wants to be able to cast creatures while holding up mana for disruption, a low curve is very important. Cantrips are used to find creatures or disruption, avoid drawing too many lands, and increase the quality of spells drawn.
Strengths
-Proactive gameplan against combo
-Low mana curve
-Very strong when ahead on the board
-Reach
-Has a chance against most decks in the format
Weaknesses
-Low creature count; creatures can be outclassed in the mid-late game
-Lack of sweepers
-Situational counterspells can lose relevance in the late game
-Lingering Souls and Tarmogoyf
II. Card Choices
Mana Base:
Because the deck optimally wants to see only 3-4 lands the entire game and can function off of 2, UR Delver lists can make up for the lack of card advantage (outside of Snapcaster Mage) by running a higher spell to land ratio than midrange and control decks. The deck wants to maximize the number of initial hands with 2-3 lands, while minimizing the number of initial hands with 4 or more lands. Running free cantrips (Gitaxian Probe) also reduces the number of lands required while increasing the number of spells, which further increases the chance of flipping Delver of Secrets.
Utility lands are important as they help ensure initial hands with at least 2 lands while maintaining relevance if too many lands are drawn. However, they reduce the number of colored sources for the deck and should not replace too many land slots.
Lands that come into play tapped should be avoided as the deck wants to get ahead on the board quickly while having mana open to disrupt the opponent.
The deck should run between 18 and 22 lands, with 0-4 utility lands.
Core 8 Blue Fetchlands - Misty Rainforest/Scalding Tarn
Both fetchlands are able to find Steam Vents and Island, the two most important lands for the deck, which can usually function off of one or two red sources but wants as many blue sources as possible. Fetchlands help to thin the deck of lands, improving later draws. Use the Misty Rainforest before the Scalding Tarn, as the Scalding Tarn can fetch a basic mountain in a racing situation. Be careful about fetching if the opponent can act at instant speed as they can cast spells in response to have a mana advantage. Fetching after or in between Delver triggers can shuffle away unwanted cards.
2-4 Shocklands - Steam Vents
Able to be fetched by the Blue Fetchlands. 2 copies are usually more than enough as the deck doesn't need more than 2 red sources in play and the damage can be a factor if needed to come into play untapped. May need more in a list with more red cards.
3-8 Basic Lands - Island/Mountain
Islands are the most important, as a hand without a blue source is usually unkeepable. Especially with Snapcaster Mage, multiple blue sources are more important than having multiple red sources. In addition, having islands are very important in conjunction with Blood Moon. Having at least 1 mountain can be useful for Scalding Tarn to fetch a red source in a racing situation.
Utility Mutavault
The best manland for the deck as it doesn't come into play tapped and animates for 1 mana. Doesn't slow the deck down in the early game and can attack if mana flooded late game.
Tectonic Edge
Helps fight against Tron decks and keeps UWr off of double white mana and Celestial Colonnade. Since the deck has a low curve, trading lands is usually beneficial. Can help keep soft counters relevant into the late game. Ideally used at the end of an opponent's turn. Having multiple Tectonic Edge can be used to drop the opponent's land count below 3 by holding priority and responding to each activation.
Faerie Conclave/Ghitu Encampment
Possible alternatives to Mutavault. These come into play tapped and requires 2 mana to activate, but provide colored mana and are better at attacking.
Creatures:
The deck wants low CMC creatures, able to be played with countermagic backup. Since the deck has a relatively low creature count, each creature in the deck must either provide a fast clock for the mana investment or some sort of disruption.
Since the deck only needs to resolve 1 creature, having too many creatures decreases the number of reactive plays and restricts the ability to hold up mana for disruption. The deck should run between 12 and 16 creatures.
Core
4 Delver of Secrets
The namesake of the deck. Provides a very fast clock for 1 mana and can often win the game by itself. Fetchlands can shuffle away the revealed card. The deck wants to be able to flip Delver of Secrets without filtering at least 40% of the time.
2-4 Snapcaster Mage
Sometimes the sole source of real card advantage in the deck. Very versatile, providing disruption, burn, or draw depending on the game state. Acts as a blue 2/1 Elvish Visionary with Gitaxian Probe. Usually at the top of the curve.
Support
0-3 Grim Lavamancer
Helps clear the board and adds a clock while shrinking your graveyard against Deathrite Shaman, Tarmogoyf, and Scavenging Ooze. Pings for 2 with a clear board. Multiple can be difficult to support.
0-4 Young Pyromancer
A very efficient threat as it can often produce 4+ power from a 2 mana investment if it can be protected. More difficult to protect than Delver of Secrets due to a higher CMC, but will often require multiple cards from the opponent to fully deal with. May be the best creature in the deck to untap with. Makes tokens very quickly in conjunction with the number of 1 and 2 CMC spells, providing blockers and a growing clock.
0-4 Spellstutter Sprite
Protects creatures from removal and disrupts the opponent at instant speed. A very slow clock, but doesn't require tapping mana at sorcery speed.
0-2 Vendilion Clique
Best against other draw-go decks. May be optimal to play on the opponent's end step to play Vendilion Clique if other answers are available unless the opponent is in topdeck mode or if no other threats are in play. Difficult to play with protection due to having CMC 3.
Burn:
Lightning Bolt and cards that are worse than Lightning Bolt. Acts as removal and reach.
Core
4 Lightning Bolt
Removal and reach. Answers most creatures, pressures planeswalkers, and wins the game. Play 4 along with 2-4 worse versions listed below.
Lightning Bolt 5-8
These all do 2 damage instead of 3 with various pros and cons.
Burst Lightning
Instant speed burn that can be kicked for 5 mana to do 4 damage.
Forked Bolt
Sorcery speed burn that can target 2 creatures/players. Great against tokens.
Magma Spray
Instant speed removal (can only target creatures). Great against persist creatures.
Pillar of Flame
Sorcery speed burn. Great against persist creatures.
Magma Jet
Instant speed burn and scry 2 for 2 mana.
Cantrips:
Cantrips are very important for a tempo list, as the deck needs to see a very specific set of cards quickly to further the gameplan. In the early game cantrips can dig for mana and a clock. In the late game cantrips can shuffle away lands while looking for disruption. They also allow for a higher spell count to help flip Delver of Secrets. Can be flashed back with Snapcaster Mage for card advantage.
Cantrips are ideally free or 1 CMC as, past the first turn, spending the entire turn playing cantrips is usually suboptimal. Also, 1 CMC cantrips can allow 1 land hands to be kept.
Gitaxian Probe
Thins the deck, allowing you to draw better spells more often and play 18-20 lands which increases the chance of flipping Delver of Secrets. Provides information on whether to go on the offense or hold up countermagic. As a bonus, it is a free spell for Young Pyromancer (I would play this in any Delver deck even without Young Pyromancer). At it's worst against very aggressive decks.
Serum Visions
A very strong cantrip for the deck. Allows you to see 3 cards. Finds lands 2-3 and puts extra lands on the bottom. Helps flip Delver of Secrets.
Telling Time
2 CMC but can be cast at instant speed. Immediately looks at 3 cards. Higher CMC means it likely won't be cast in the first few turns and is harder to flash back with Snapcaster Mage.
Disruption:
Disruption needs to be used both offensively and defensively, protecting your clock and fighting combo pieces. Disruption needs to have a low CMC to protect creatures the turn they are summoned.
Core Spell Pierce
Can be used offensively to protect creatures. Great in fighting combo decks and other counterspells. Can still be used in the late game to fight high CMC spells.
Spell Snare - Very narrow but fights important cards including Tarmogoyf, Pyroclasm, Whipflare, Mana Leak, Remand, and Lightning Helix.
Mana Leak - Counters everything. Still relevant in the late game in combination with Tectonic Edge and other counterspells.
Remand - The best answer to flashback and cascade spells. Helps soft counters maintain relevance in the late game and can bounce your own spells against other blue decks.
Miscellaneous:
Other support spells that either don't fit into any of the above categories or encompass more than one category. Spells at 3 mana or greater should have a very large impact on the game state and need to be used cautiously as getting countered and wasting a turn is very detrimental to this deck.
Blood Moon
Resolving this on an empty board against 3 and 4 color decks usually wins the game. However, there are enough UR/monocolor decks that this should only be a 1 of (2 at max) before board. Can steal otherwise unwinnable games. Fetch as many islands as possible early. Can cause opponents in games 2 and 3 to dilute their deck with enchantment removal and hinder mana development by forcing them to fetch basics.
Vedalken Shackles
Great against creature decks. Can act as a moat against aggro or prevent control decks from playing creatures. Also good against creature combo decks. Requires a heavy mana investment of at least 5 before it starts impacting the board state. Having enough islands is usually not a problem for this deck.
Izzet Charm
Very versatile but requires 2 colored mana. Can act as a shock, spell pierce, or careful study.
Electrolyze
Great value. Almost always a 2 for 1 and can occasionally be a 3 for 1. However, paying 3 mana for 2 damage is very expensive.
Cryptic Command
4 CMC with a heavy blue requirement. Restricts the number of colorless lands the deck can support. Great to untap with if ahead on the board. Vulnerable to countermagic.
Sideboard
Disruption Dispel
Great against draw go decks and protects Delver and Pyromancer.
Trickbind
Helps fight storm/cascade. Occasionally will stop a Fetchland activation.
Removal/Bounce Electrickery
Great against the mirror, Affinity, and tokens.
Hibernation
Fights GW hexproof and Birthing Pod decks.
General: I used the UR Delver lists seen in Legacy as a basis for creating this deck. The deck wants to land a quick threat (Delver of Secrets or Young Pyromancer) and protect it while disrupting the opponent. The deck wants to leave mana open as much as possible, so the 1 and 2 CMC slots are prioritized. I feel that Young Pyromancer is a great fit in the deck as it will often provide 4+ power for 2 mana without deviating from the goal of a tempo deck. The deck gets a lot of free wins either from having a turn 2 3/2 flier or a turn 3 Blood Moon. While the deck doesn't have many sources of card advantage (mostly just Snapcaster Mage), the low curve allows running just 20 lands, which allows the deck to see more spells on average than most other decks.
IV. Matchups
I recorded the wins and losses from about 20 Daily events using some variant of the first sample list and summarized what I think of the matchups below. The notes could be incorrect due to small sample size and are arranged in descending order in perceived difficulty.
Strong matchups - I have won over 75% of the matches
GW Hexproof
I am currently 7-0 against this deck. Know what enchantments to counter and keep removal in for Kor Spiritdancer. Counter lifelink enchantments and prevent trample and Keen Sense from being stacked on the same creature. Blood Moon and Spellskite are great against this deck. Resolving Hibernation will usually be the game.
Tron
Counter their tutors and anything over 5 CMC. Watch out for sweepers. Side in dispel against the mono blue version.
Living End
Counter Living End. Remand is great. Remember that they can cascade at instant speed. Trickbind can stop the cascade trigger.
UWr Control
This seems like a bad matchup since they have as much removal as the deck has creatures, but their mana base is very greedy with a much higher average CMC. Trade counterspells for removal as much as possible. Tectonic Edge and Blood Moon can keep them from casting many of their spells. Save counters for Sphinx's Revelation and Cryptic Command and don't overextend into Supreme Verdict. By the late game the deck will often have 2-4 more spells due to running less lands. Blood Moon can win the game by itself and will usually draw some sideboard cards in games 2 and 3.
UR Twin
Land a threat and counter the combo. Spellskite is good in this matchup. Be careful about tapping out as they can resolve half of their combo at instant speed, while tapping a blue source.
Decent matchups - Even, or I won more than I lost
Scapeshift
Counter Scapeshift and Primeval Titan. If there is no clock, they can ramp past soft counters. Don't overextend into sweepers.
Birthing Pod
They have a high curve but have lots of sources for card advantage. Landing a quick threat is important. Melira pod can tutor a sweeper at 3 mana so counter the Chord of Calling.
Merfolk
Unblockable creatures that are uncounterable with an active Aether Vial. The deck must keep them off a critical mass of lords, and more importantly, islandwalk.
Affinity
This can be a difficult matchup if they get a fast start. There are many must answer creatures including Steel Overseer and Arcbound Ravager. If possible, hold up mana to counter Cranial Plating as it forces you to answer every creature they have. They also run 8 manlands, so resolving a Blood Moon is important, especially if they are able to resolve Cranial Plating.
UR Storm
Very difficult to win against an active Pyromancer's Ascension. Tough to fight with counterspells as they can cast rituals to pay for soft counters. The deck must land a quick threat for a chance to win. Trickbind can counter the storm trigger.
Burn
Difficult to race
Zoo
They empty out their hand quickly, weakening counterspells. Very difficult to race.
Terrible matchups - Very difficult to win
White Lifegain
Maybe I have been unlucky, but I have dealt over 30 damage multiple games and still lost. Tokens, Squadron Hawk, and anthem effects make it very difficult for Delver of Secrets to swing.
Shamans Cavern of Souls and lords that give +1/+1 counters instead of a passive boost. Very difficult to race and they run many more uncounterable creatures than you have removal for.
My worry with Bob is that a lot of the deck is relatively high CC, and I have enough problems trying to stay alive in the mid game and get off DC even with Finks. Obviously you did pretty well with it though, and I guess a turn 2 play would rather be mana accel than Bob? Id be interested to see if something along the lines of Graveborn Muse could be an alternative, giving another decent turn 4 play if we don't have Garruk. Higher CC, but we run the mana accel to get it.
For my list Confidant deals on average ~1.38 damage per draw with a maximum of 4, so the damage isn't too bad (although flipping Garruk/Elspeth hurts). Confidant acts as pseudo-ramp by helping the deck hit land drops on time and is my preferred T2 play. If your list plans on skipping the 3-drop spot and load up on 4 drops (all my 4-drops do better with a preceding Lingering Souls for protection, so going from 2 to 4 is not as important for me) then dropping Confidant in favor of ramp would probably be best.
I was looking for creatures that either survive Cloud or give value before sweepers. However, if there are a lot of aggro lists in the meta then Tarmogoyf provides a great offensive/defensive solution. My solution for aggro decks are to stall with Finks/Lingering Souls until I can hit a sweeper. For aggro the primary plan is to resolve a PW and then cast Death Cloud.
I was thinking of trying out persist/undying creatures with this list. Also, has anyone tried Garruk Relentless in this deck?
You see DireNTropy has the engine. Dark Confidant gives us the engine. You lose a few bigger spells but maybe use Loam/RAven's crime to help up the CA engine. The more I look at things the more directions I go in.
Perhaps blue instead of white? Or maybe dropping green. I need to get back into the deck. However if we drop Steve and go with sorcery based choices we can also use more dual lands and less basics.
This deck is somewhere between Jund and Aggro Loam. Maybe we go the Nic Fit route and run more permanents as spells and go for Sun Titan as the top end.
Engines/CA: The deck runs different CA engines that can attack opposing decks from many directions.
-Death Cloud: having more permanents (manlands/PW) that survive a Death Cloud. Also you can choose to play out your hand before casting Death Cloud to take advantage of the symmetrical discard effect. Use discard to clear counterspells though.
-Lingering Souls flashback (especially after a Death Cloud).
-Dark Confidant. Even though you tend to lose it after a Death Cloud, Confidant's purpose is to find specific answers/engines (part of the reason I dropped to 2 Death Clouds). Playing Confidant post-cloud is also very powerful. Thoughtseize and Confidant make burn a very difficult matchup, though 4 Kitchen Finks helps offset the life loss. I think Confidant's ability to just win the game at 2 mana is too good to cut.
-Life from the Loam is great with Liliana of the Veil, Horizon Canopy, Raven's Crime, and Death Cloud.
-PWs: Garruk Wildspeaker/Liliana of the Veil/Elspeth, Knight-Errant provide continuous board advantage every turn they're online.
My favorite opening unique to using Explore over other ramp is T1 Discard, T2 Explore + Discard. Explore also cantrips to help find engine pieces.
I think the biggest advantage this list has over a more traditional Junk Aggro deck is the ability to go over the top of other aggro decks with Death Cloud while still having a decent late game against control decks.
The deck can either focus on disruption/ramp in the early turns (Sakura-Tribe Elder is great in this deck for fixing and guaranteeing a T3 Gifts) and use the Loam engine to grind out the opponent or go the control route by adding more counters.
I like the Explore idea. I'm considering dropping Sakura for straight Farseek and another card so maybe explore is the option. White has always been something that intrigued me with this deck. Your lack of Damnation scares me a bit but if it works for you.
I think for 2 colors explore is definitely a great option. For 3 colors explore has the potential to miss fixing but I have yet to run into too many problems from that. The biggest benefit of explore is that we can run 22-24 lands and not get flooded as can happen with sakura-tribe elder/farseek acting as 4-6 additional lands.
I had infest/damnation in the MD for quite some time but I found with 4x Kitchen Finks and 4x Lingering Souls I could hold off opposing creatures until drawing into either a PW or death cloud and control the game from there. I was thinking of putting one or two sweepers back into the MD or upping the Death Cloud/Garruk Wildspeaker count to 3 each.
Burn is still a tough matchup (even with 4x finks) and combo is tough to stop. The discard delays them but I found unless I land a Liliana of the Veil or a very fast clock I can't win consistently. Tron can also be difficult unless I get ahead quickly with hand disruption but they have the ability to just go over the top as the game goes on.
I think we have good matchups against most of the aggro, control, and midrange decks and we should devote most of our sideboard to beating combo.
Notes:
-All 12 creatures either draw cards or recur.
-8 T1 discard spells are great. Raven's crime helps during the late game, especially with a loam and allows for land-heavy openers.
-Primal Command was very effective in aggro matchups by fetching an Obstinate Baloth and either gaining 7 life or putting a land on top of the opponent's deck.
-Liliana is one of the most powerful cards in the deck, any opening hand with Lingering Souls and Liliana is great. Liliana will almost always act as a 2-1 or shut a control player out of the game. Thinking about going up to 3.
-Dark Confidant allows for early offense/defense and then can be sac'd to Death Cloud if need be. Can also protect PWs.
-Trying Explore and Life from the loam over Sakura-Tribe Elder and Farseek; Explore is better in land-heavy openers and the late game but much worse if looking for a land drop. While loam does not ramp, it helps to ensure land drops when combined with fetchlands.
I had been playing a GB rock deck to moderate success before adding red to it. Since then the deck went from a GBr shell to a GRB, faring much better. I'll post the results of some dailies later.
Creature Threats
Most of the creatures are either highly resistant to removal or give value upon removal.
Viridian Emissary - Either beats in for 2 each turn or ramps. Will regularly get in for 8 before trading in for a land.
Glissa, the Traitor - Queen of combat, at worst trades with another first striker. Moat effect that can get in for 3 a turn
Chandra's Phoenix - Discard fodder for Liliana with 6 ways to recur the phoenix. Can beat control by itself (watch out for dissipate). I kept losing to this card and decided to try it out. Instantly became a 4 of. Eats planeswalkers/spirit tokens
Thrun, the last Troll - Read the card. Watch out for sac effects/BSZ/Phantasmal Image
Olivia Voldaren - If cast with 1R up can protect herself against the many 3 damage burn spells in the format. If you get to untap with her usually the game is over (easily a removal spell and pumping itself for +2/+2 each turn). Only time I've used control magic are against nobles.
Acidic Slime - Put them off of 6 lands, removal for trouble artifacts/o-ring
Other Threats
This deck is resistant to sweepers in that it drops a lot of non-creature threats as well:
Liliana of the Veil - 6 discard outlets (Phoenix + Geistflame). Because the deck's curve is relatively low I start pitching any lands over 4. Can easily control the game.
Garruk Relentless - Token generator + situational lightening bolt + tutor + overrun... likely the reason to splash green. The best threat in the deck
Mana/Mulliganing
The curve is as follows:
1CMC: 8
2CMC: 10
3CMC: 8
4CMC: 6
5CMC: 2
XCMC: 2
2/3 of the time you will have a 1 drop in the opening 7
9/10 of the time you will have a 1 or 2 drop in the opening 7
13 R sources
14 B sources
9 G sources
With 7 appropriate basics for each 'slow' land, hitting early drops isn't usually a problem.
Can arc trail/geistflame a viridian emissary if you really need to fix mana.
Want to hit BB and RR by turn 3, G by T2
>2/3 chance of each (although not essential, can play 1 or 2 drops on T3)
Tough hands to keep: Anything without a burn spell (vs. aggro) or 2/3 drop threats.
Matchup Overview
Control: The threat density should be more than control can handle most of the time. Use distress to pick out counters and despise to pick out fatties/snapcasters. Liliana is key here as you want them to either discard land or fatties.
Aggro: The amount of burn makes this a favorable matchup. Your creatures should outclass theirs quickly.
^Will specify archetypes after some DE's
Sideboard
Doom blade/go for the throat are for ramp/control matchups (sans delver) that the light burn can't handle.
Ancient Grudge is for tempered steel/wurmcoil
Acidic Slimes/naturalize for oblivion rings
Sword of Feast and Famine for ramp/control
Nihil Spellbomb for control/dredge
Edit: Want to try Primeval + Acidic Slime over 2 Bloodgift Demon
Given 4 BoP you have a ~40% chance of having one in your opening hand.
For this build I have 9 G sources that CITP untapped, having one in the opening hand P(T1G)~70% of the time.
This means that P(BoP|T1G) ~35% (you lose some percentage because you are assuming you drew a untapped G source).
This means that the probability of having a T1 birds is only P(T1BoP) = P(T1G)*P(BoP|T1G) ~ 25%
I upped the number of untapped G sources to 14 and this still only gives a P(T1BoP) ~ 30%
So my question is, is having a 25-30% chance of a 3 drop play on T2 worth the fragility of birds or is it better to just play more lands/caravan vigil for fixing since these are much less likely to be disrupted.
However, birds leads to some pretty broken plays such as T2 SoFaF or Liliana. However, if you have ~6 of these 3 drops, the chance of T1BoP to T2_3Drop is only ~10%.
P(T2_3D) = P(T1BoP)*P(3D|T1BoP) ~ 10%
The bottom line is I think that, unless you are running 8 mana dorks like a lot of GW lists, neglecting the 2 drop selection is very dangerous. So, the number of 3 drops will decrease leading to a T1 BoP play having a much lower chance of being broken.
Final bottom line: Unless you run more than one set of mana dorks it may not be worth it to run any at all???
you traded just over 10$ worth of cards for approx 1 dollar of commons?....
Sorry, I meant swapped out in my build. Still have the skinshifters.
I thought the porcelain legionnaires would be better than the perilous myrs because they still stop mirran crusader but also have the ability to beat in and take care of beast tokens.
The myr could be better against decks running mana dorks though and also has more value with sweepers (although going to the face isn't that great).
Funny, I have 2 Tribute to Hunger in the deck (I've since added 2 more in the sideboard because I am tired of losing to Mirran Crusader).
It's kind of funny, I woud say that about half of my sideboard is there just because of Mirran Crusader because that is really the only card that has beat me consistently.
What do you guys think of starting a new thread so that we can have a "primer" post?
Matchups:
In my experience my toughest matchup is GW tokens. If they leave up mana, it's tough to pop their shrine. Does anyone have any suggestions for this matchup? I often find myself in a racing situation. Maybe a couple of ratchet bombs over BSZ?
Also, how do people deal with Chandra's Pheonix?? The only answers I thought of were Daybreak Ranger , Giant Spider and Sever the bloodline.
I generally have an answer for Crusader (8 MD), but it could be because I have a more controllish build.
Primer
A primer would be useful. I think there are two main Rock archetypes. One is more aggro/disruption and the other is more rampy.
Here are some cards that I think should be included (I'm obviously missing a lot):
Non-creature Ramp/Fixing Rampant growth: Ramp. Rock generally has 2 drop creatures though. Caravan Vigil: Situational ramp. Good T1 fixer. T2 Dismember their mana dork + ramp is nice.
Disruption Smallpox: disruption, LD Beast Within: swiss army knife, make sure your creatures can beat the 3/3 Bramble Crush: Great non-creature removal
Utility Green Sun's Zenith: Great creature tutor, this is why I run mostly green creatures. Can include silver bullet creatures as a 1-of. Garruk Relentless: Removal/Creature Tutor/Token Geneator Garruk, Primal Hunter: GGG may be tougher, bigger tokens/draw/finisher Sword of Feast and Famine: Obviously good vs. Ramp/Mirror match. Tempo generator/disruption. Makes every creature a threat Sword of War and Peace: Good vs. Aggro Mimic Vat: Great vs. black heavy control. Get a Entomber Exarch/Acidic Slime or even a viridian emissary and you're good to go.
Here's my deck list (updated again), which focuses a lot more on disruption than ramp:
I cut my CMC at 5 since I'm running 3x smallpox. For the same reason I avoided 4x mana dorks for Caravan Vigil. I want to get in as many early beats as possible and then use one of my 4 mana finishers or swords + disruption.
A few comments on the deck in general:
Cryptic Command
-With 19 lands the deck will only hit 4 mana sources by turn 5 about half the time; there are many games where I win with only 2 or 3 lands in play.
-The deck already has plays at 4 mana with Snapcaster Mage flashing back a Mana Leak or Remand. The advantage to using Snapcaster Mage as top of the curve is the flexibility. Snapcaster Mage can be cast at 3 or even 2 mana.
-In conclusion, I would not recommend playing Cryptic Command in this deck as, while powerful, it deviates from the strategy encouraged by the core of the deck.
Tectonic Edge
-Running a couple can help keep Mana Leak and Spell Pierce relevant in the mid to late game as well as preventing an opponent from casting certain spells.
Aggro-Control (Tempo) Archetype
-In many matchups (for example, Bogles), since the answers run are more efficient than powerful, aggro-control decks are not able to stop every card the opponent plays. In these cases it's important to identify which cards are important to fight over and which cards are fine to ignore (as opposed to a dedicated control deck like UWr that run a higher number of and more powerful answers). Young Pyromancer gives the deck the flexibility to divert resources from cards that would otherwise demand an answer (Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf).
I think the major differences in matchup experience may be from how my deck was constructed compared to many of the builds run today. The build in the primer looks very similar to current builds with a few differences that greatly impacts the Bogles (I went 7-0 in recorded matches) and UWr control (5-2) matchups. Again, since the sample size is finite, variance could play a large role in the conclusions.
-3 Spell Pierce main. This card is very strong and has won many games against both Bogles and UWr control. Against Bogles the primary goal is to prevent specific, key auras from being combined on a single creature. Being able to play threats while holding up a counterspell for 1 mana helps a lot. Against UWr the primary goal is to protect your creatures. Spell Pierce usually trades for removal, which is key in this matchup. Postboard, having 7 one mana counters (adding 2 Dispel), is very powerful against a deck trying to resolve 4 mana spells (Cryptic Command).
-2 Tectonic Edge main. This card helps against UWr control as preventing them from hitting double white mana is key (Supreme Verdict cannot be countered), as well as removing Celestial Colonnade.
-1 Blood Moon main, 1 in the board. This card shuts down Bogles' manabase as well as being very strong against UWr. I often board it out if I cast it in a previous game as they will tend to fetch basics and bring in enchantment removal. This slows down their deck and forces them to bring in sub-optimal cards.
-2 Mutavault main. This card helps against UWr by having a threat that cannot be removed with Supreme Verdict.
-1 Vendilion Clique main, 1 in the board. This card helps against Bogles once both decks are in topdeck mode and can provide a clock without tapping out by casting at the opponent's endstep. Very strong against UWr control as you can cast it on their end step (I tend to avoid casting it on their draw step unless both decks are in topdeck mode as it becomes vulnerable to sorcery speed effects).
These cards seem to have been replaced by cards like Vapor Snag, Sword of Fire and Ice, and Electrolyze, which while may be very good in other matchups, seem to be relatively weak against both Bogles and UWr control.
This deck requires very careful tuning to the metagame, as can be seen by the drastically different results from changing just a few cards.
I. Introduction
UR Delver decks aim to establish a clock early in the game and disrupt the opponent using counters and burn spells that double as reach and removal. As the deck ideally wants to be able to cast creatures while holding up mana for disruption, a low curve is very important. Cantrips are used to find creatures or disruption, avoid drawing too many lands, and increase the quality of spells drawn.
Core:
18-22 Land
10-16 Creatures
4-10 Cantrips
4-10 Burn Spells
6-14 Disruption
Strengths
-Proactive gameplan against combo
-Low mana curve
-Very strong when ahead on the board
-Reach
-Has a chance against most decks in the format
Weaknesses
-Low creature count; creatures can be outclassed in the mid-late game
-Lack of sweepers
-Situational counterspells can lose relevance in the late game
-Lingering Souls and Tarmogoyf
II. Card Choices
Mana Base:
Because the deck optimally wants to see only 3-4 lands the entire game and can function off of 2, UR Delver lists can make up for the lack of card advantage (outside of Snapcaster Mage) by running a higher spell to land ratio than midrange and control decks. The deck wants to maximize the number of initial hands with 2-3 lands, while minimizing the number of initial hands with 4 or more lands. Running free cantrips (Gitaxian Probe) also reduces the number of lands required while increasing the number of spells, which further increases the chance of flipping Delver of Secrets.
Utility lands are important as they help ensure initial hands with at least 2 lands while maintaining relevance if too many lands are drawn. However, they reduce the number of colored sources for the deck and should not replace too many land slots.
Lands that come into play tapped should be avoided as the deck wants to get ahead on the board quickly while having mana open to disrupt the opponent.
The deck should run between 18 and 22 lands, with 0-4 utility lands.
Core
8 Blue Fetchlands - Misty Rainforest/Scalding Tarn
Both fetchlands are able to find Steam Vents and Island, the two most important lands for the deck, which can usually function off of one or two red sources but wants as many blue sources as possible. Fetchlands help to thin the deck of lands, improving later draws. Use the Misty Rainforest before the Scalding Tarn, as the Scalding Tarn can fetch a basic mountain in a racing situation. Be careful about fetching if the opponent can act at instant speed as they can cast spells in response to have a mana advantage. Fetching after or in between Delver triggers can shuffle away unwanted cards.
2-4 Shocklands - Steam Vents
Able to be fetched by the Blue Fetchlands. 2 copies are usually more than enough as the deck doesn't need more than 2 red sources in play and the damage can be a factor if needed to come into play untapped. May need more in a list with more red cards.
3-8 Basic Lands - Island/Mountain
Islands are the most important, as a hand without a blue source is usually unkeepable. Especially with Snapcaster Mage, multiple blue sources are more important than having multiple red sources. In addition, having islands are very important in conjunction with Blood Moon. Having at least 1 mountain can be useful for Scalding Tarn to fetch a red source in a racing situation.
Utility
Mutavault
The best manland for the deck as it doesn't come into play tapped and animates for 1 mana. Doesn't slow the deck down in the early game and can attack if mana flooded late game.
Tectonic Edge
Helps fight against Tron decks and keeps UWr off of double white mana and Celestial Colonnade. Since the deck has a low curve, trading lands is usually beneficial. Can help keep soft counters relevant into the late game. Ideally used at the end of an opponent's turn. Having multiple Tectonic Edge can be used to drop the opponent's land count below 3 by holding priority and responding to each activation.
Faerie Conclave/Ghitu Encampment
Possible alternatives to Mutavault. These come into play tapped and requires 2 mana to activate, but provide colored mana and are better at attacking.
Creatures:
The deck wants low CMC creatures, able to be played with countermagic backup. Since the deck has a relatively low creature count, each creature in the deck must either provide a fast clock for the mana investment or some sort of disruption.
Since the deck only needs to resolve 1 creature, having too many creatures decreases the number of reactive plays and restricts the ability to hold up mana for disruption. The deck should run between 12 and 16 creatures.
Core
4 Delver of Secrets
The namesake of the deck. Provides a very fast clock for 1 mana and can often win the game by itself. Fetchlands can shuffle away the revealed card. The deck wants to be able to flip Delver of Secrets without filtering at least 40% of the time.
2-4 Snapcaster Mage
Sometimes the sole source of real card advantage in the deck. Very versatile, providing disruption, burn, or draw depending on the game state. Acts as a blue 2/1 Elvish Visionary with Gitaxian Probe. Usually at the top of the curve.
Support
0-3 Grim Lavamancer
Helps clear the board and adds a clock while shrinking your graveyard against Deathrite Shaman, Tarmogoyf, and Scavenging Ooze. Pings for 2 with a clear board. Multiple can be difficult to support.
0-4 Young Pyromancer
A very efficient threat as it can often produce 4+ power from a 2 mana investment if it can be protected. More difficult to protect than Delver of Secrets due to a higher CMC, but will often require multiple cards from the opponent to fully deal with. May be the best creature in the deck to untap with. Makes tokens very quickly in conjunction with the number of 1 and 2 CMC spells, providing blockers and a growing clock.
0-4 Spellstutter Sprite
Protects creatures from removal and disrupts the opponent at instant speed. A very slow clock, but doesn't require tapping mana at sorcery speed.
0-2 Vendilion Clique
Best against other draw-go decks. May be optimal to play on the opponent's end step to play Vendilion Clique if other answers are available unless the opponent is in topdeck mode or if no other threats are in play. Difficult to play with protection due to having CMC 3.
Burn:
Lightning Bolt and cards that are worse than Lightning Bolt. Acts as removal and reach.
Core
4 Lightning Bolt
Removal and reach. Answers most creatures, pressures planeswalkers, and wins the game. Play 4 along with 2-4 worse versions listed below.
Lightning Bolt 5-8
These all do 2 damage instead of 3 with various pros and cons.
Burst Lightning
Instant speed burn that can be kicked for 5 mana to do 4 damage.
Forked Bolt
Sorcery speed burn that can target 2 creatures/players. Great against tokens.
Magma Spray
Instant speed removal (can only target creatures). Great against persist creatures.
Pillar of Flame
Sorcery speed burn. Great against persist creatures.
Magma Jet
Instant speed burn and scry 2 for 2 mana.
Cantrips:
Cantrips are very important for a tempo list, as the deck needs to see a very specific set of cards quickly to further the gameplan. In the early game cantrips can dig for mana and a clock. In the late game cantrips can shuffle away lands while looking for disruption. They also allow for a higher spell count to help flip Delver of Secrets. Can be flashed back with Snapcaster Mage for card advantage.
Cantrips are ideally free or 1 CMC as, past the first turn, spending the entire turn playing cantrips is usually suboptimal. Also, 1 CMC cantrips can allow 1 land hands to be kept.
Gitaxian Probe
Thins the deck, allowing you to draw better spells more often and play 18-20 lands which increases the chance of flipping Delver of Secrets. Provides information on whether to go on the offense or hold up countermagic. As a bonus, it is a free spell for Young Pyromancer (I would play this in any Delver deck even without Young Pyromancer). At it's worst against very aggressive decks.
Serum Visions
A very strong cantrip for the deck. Allows you to see 3 cards. Finds lands 2-3 and puts extra lands on the bottom. Helps flip Delver of Secrets.
Sleight of Hand
Allows more immediate selection, but doesn't set up future turns and does not help flip Delver of Secrets.
Telling Time
2 CMC but can be cast at instant speed. Immediately looks at 3 cards. Higher CMC means it likely won't be cast in the first few turns and is harder to flash back with Snapcaster Mage.
Disruption:
Disruption needs to be used both offensively and defensively, protecting your clock and fighting combo pieces. Disruption needs to have a low CMC to protect creatures the turn they are summoned.
Spell Pierce
Can be used offensively to protect creatures. Great in fighting combo decks and other counterspells. Can still be used in the late game to fight high CMC spells.
Spell Snare - Very narrow but fights important cards including Tarmogoyf, Pyroclasm, Whipflare, Mana Leak, Remand, and Lightning Helix.
Mana Leak - Counters everything. Still relevant in the late game in combination with Tectonic Edge and other counterspells.
Remand - The best answer to flashback and cascade spells. Helps soft counters maintain relevance in the late game and can bounce your own spells against other blue decks.
Miscellaneous:
Other support spells that either don't fit into any of the above categories or encompass more than one category. Spells at 3 mana or greater should have a very large impact on the game state and need to be used cautiously as getting countered and wasting a turn is very detrimental to this deck.
Blood Moon
Resolving this on an empty board against 3 and 4 color decks usually wins the game. However, there are enough UR/monocolor decks that this should only be a 1 of (2 at max) before board. Can steal otherwise unwinnable games. Fetch as many islands as possible early. Can cause opponents in games 2 and 3 to dilute their deck with enchantment removal and hinder mana development by forcing them to fetch basics.
Vedalken Shackles
Great against creature decks. Can act as a moat against aggro or prevent control decks from playing creatures. Also good against creature combo decks. Requires a heavy mana investment of at least 5 before it starts impacting the board state. Having enough islands is usually not a problem for this deck.
Izzet Charm
Very versatile but requires 2 colored mana. Can act as a shock, spell pierce, or careful study.
Electrolyze
Great value. Almost always a 2 for 1 and can occasionally be a 3 for 1. However, paying 3 mana for 2 damage is very expensive.
Cryptic Command
4 CMC with a heavy blue requirement. Restricts the number of colorless lands the deck can support. Great to untap with if ahead on the board. Vulnerable to countermagic.
Sideboard
Dispel
Great against draw go decks and protects Delver and Pyromancer.
Trickbind
Helps fight storm/cascade. Occasionally will stop a Fetchland activation.
Removal/Bounce
Electrickery
Great against the mirror, Affinity, and tokens.
Hibernation
Fights GW hexproof and Birthing Pod decks.
Threads of Disloyalty
Fights against any creature deck, especially Tarmogoyf
Flame Slash/Dismember
Fights Tarmogoyf, Scavenging Ooze, Hero of Bladehold, Deceiver Exarch, etc. Dismember is usually better as it can be cast at instant speed, but running multiple can be risky due to the life loss.
Combust
Uncounterable removal against Splinter Twin and Celestial Colonnade.
Miscellaneous
Vandalblast - Artifact removal.
Spellskite - Great against splinter twin and GW Hexproof.
III. Sample Deck lists
I've put up a few 4-0 and many 3-1 finishes in MTGO dailies with this deck. The current build (8/20/2013):
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Steam Vents
5 Island
1 Mountain
2 Tectonic Edge
2 Mutavault
Creatures - 14
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Young Pyromancer
3 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Burst Lightning
Cantrips - 8
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions
Disruption - 12
3 Spell Pierce
2 Spell Snare
4 Mana Leak
2 Remand
1 Blood Moon
2 Dispel
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Trickbind
1 Hibernation
1 Threads of Disloyalty
1 Dismember
2 Flame Slash
2 Combust
1 Vandalblast
1 Blood Moon
2 Spellskite
CMC breakdown:
1 - 25
2 - 13
3 - 2
General: I used the UR Delver lists seen in Legacy as a basis for creating this deck. The deck wants to land a quick threat (Delver of Secrets or Young Pyromancer) and protect it while disrupting the opponent. The deck wants to leave mana open as much as possible, so the 1 and 2 CMC slots are prioritized. I feel that Young Pyromancer is a great fit in the deck as it will often provide 4+ power for 2 mana without deviating from the goal of a tempo deck. The deck gets a lot of free wins either from having a turn 2 3/2 flier or a turn 3 Blood Moon. While the deck doesn't have many sources of card advantage (mostly just Snapcaster Mage), the low curve allows running just 20 lands, which allows the deck to see more spells on average than most other decks.
IV. Matchups
I recorded the wins and losses from about 20 Daily events using some variant of the first sample list and summarized what I think of the matchups below. The notes could be incorrect due to small sample size and are arranged in descending order in perceived difficulty.
Strong matchups - I have won over 75% of the matches
GW Hexproof
I am currently 7-0 against this deck. Know what enchantments to counter and keep removal in for Kor Spiritdancer. Counter lifelink enchantments and prevent trample and Keen Sense from being stacked on the same creature. Blood Moon and Spellskite are great against this deck. Resolving Hibernation will usually be the game.
Tron
Counter their tutors and anything over 5 CMC. Watch out for sweepers. Side in dispel against the mono blue version.
Living End
Counter Living End. Remand is great. Remember that they can cascade at instant speed. Trickbind can stop the cascade trigger.
UWr Control
This seems like a bad matchup since they have as much removal as the deck has creatures, but their mana base is very greedy with a much higher average CMC. Trade counterspells for removal as much as possible. Tectonic Edge and Blood Moon can keep them from casting many of their spells. Save counters for Sphinx's Revelation and Cryptic Command and don't overextend into Supreme Verdict. By the late game the deck will often have 2-4 more spells due to running less lands. Blood Moon can win the game by itself and will usually draw some sideboard cards in games 2 and 3.
UR Twin
Land a threat and counter the combo. Spellskite is good in this matchup. Be careful about tapping out as they can resolve half of their combo at instant speed, while tapping a blue source.
Decent matchups - Even, or I won more than I lost
Scapeshift
Counter Scapeshift and Primeval Titan. If there is no clock, they can ramp past soft counters. Don't overextend into sweepers.
BGx Midrange
These decks run about 16 creatures; save counterspells for Tarmogoyf. Young Pyromancer tokens can counter Liliana and block Tarmogoyf. Grim Lavamancer can shrink your graveyard against Deathrite Shaman, Scavenging Ooze, and Tarmogoyf. Blood Moon wins games by itself.
Tough matchups - I lost more than I won
Birthing Pod
They have a high curve but have lots of sources for card advantage. Landing a quick threat is important. Melira pod can tutor a sweeper at 3 mana so counter the Chord of Calling.
Merfolk
Unblockable creatures that are uncounterable with an active Aether Vial. The deck must keep them off a critical mass of lords, and more importantly, islandwalk.
Affinity
This can be a difficult matchup if they get a fast start. There are many must answer creatures including Steel Overseer and Arcbound Ravager. If possible, hold up mana to counter Cranial Plating as it forces you to answer every creature they have. They also run 8 manlands, so resolving a Blood Moon is important, especially if they are able to resolve Cranial Plating.
UR Storm
Very difficult to win against an active Pyromancer's Ascension. Tough to fight with counterspells as they can cast rituals to pay for soft counters. The deck must land a quick threat for a chance to win. Trickbind can counter the storm trigger.
Burn
Difficult to race
Zoo
They empty out their hand quickly, weakening counterspells. Very difficult to race.
Terrible matchups - Very difficult to win
White Lifegain
Maybe I have been unlucky, but I have dealt over 30 damage multiple games and still lost. Tokens, Squadron Hawk, and anthem effects make it very difficult for Delver of Secrets to swing.
Shamans
Cavern of Souls and lords that give +1/+1 counters instead of a passive boost. Very difficult to race and they run many more uncounterable creatures than you have removal for.
For my list Confidant deals on average ~1.38 damage per draw with a maximum of 4, so the damage isn't too bad (although flipping Garruk/Elspeth hurts). Confidant acts as pseudo-ramp by helping the deck hit land drops on time and is my preferred T2 play. If your list plans on skipping the 3-drop spot and load up on 4 drops (all my 4-drops do better with a preceding Lingering Souls for protection, so going from 2 to 4 is not as important for me) then dropping Confidant in favor of ramp would probably be best.
I was looking for creatures that either survive Cloud or give value before sweepers. However, if there are a lot of aggro lists in the meta then Tarmogoyf provides a great offensive/defensive solution. My solution for aggro decks are to stall with Finks/Lingering Souls until I can hit a sweeper. For aggro the primary plan is to resolve a PW and then cast Death Cloud.
I was thinking of trying out persist/undying creatures with this list. Also, has anyone tried Garruk Relentless in this deck?
Engines/CA: The deck runs different CA engines that can attack opposing decks from many directions.
-Death Cloud: having more permanents (manlands/PW) that survive a Death Cloud. Also you can choose to play out your hand before casting Death Cloud to take advantage of the symmetrical discard effect. Use discard to clear counterspells though.
-Lingering Souls flashback (especially after a Death Cloud).
-Dark Confidant. Even though you tend to lose it after a Death Cloud, Confidant's purpose is to find specific answers/engines (part of the reason I dropped to 2 Death Clouds). Playing Confidant post-cloud is also very powerful. Thoughtseize and Confidant make burn a very difficult matchup, though 4 Kitchen Finks helps offset the life loss. I think Confidant's ability to just win the game at 2 mana is too good to cut.
-Life from the Loam is great with Liliana of the Veil, Horizon Canopy, Raven's Crime, and Death Cloud.
-PWs: Garruk Wildspeaker/Liliana of the Veil/Elspeth, Knight-Errant provide continuous board advantage every turn they're online.
My favorite opening unique to using Explore over other ramp is T1 Discard, T2 Explore + Discard. Explore also cantrips to help find engine pieces.
I think the biggest advantage this list has over a more traditional Junk Aggro deck is the ability to go over the top of other aggro decks with Death Cloud while still having a decent late game against control decks.
Note: Stirring Wildwood provides an answer to Delver of Secrets and Lingering Souls. Horizon Canopy and Stirring Wildwood are good reasons to keep white as the third color.
Blue: I ran a Rock Gifts Ungiven deck before, using Gifts Ungiven to grab Life from the Loam/Raven's Crime/Worm Harvest/Ghost Quarter. Snapcaster Mage and Eternal Witness/Noxious Revival would probably see play in here along with the removal packages:
Damnation/Infest/Hideous Laughter
Smother/Dismember/Tragic Slip
The deck can either focus on disruption/ramp in the early turns (Sakura-Tribe Elder is great in this deck for fixing and guaranteeing a T3 Gifts) and use the Loam engine to grind out the opponent or go the control route by adding more counters.
You can also add white for the Iona, Shield of Emeria/Unburial Rites combo although this requires Farseek and Sakura-Tribe Elder for mana fixing.
I think for 2 colors explore is definitely a great option. For 3 colors explore has the potential to miss fixing but I have yet to run into too many problems from that. The biggest benefit of explore is that we can run 22-24 lands and not get flooded as can happen with sakura-tribe elder/farseek acting as 4-6 additional lands.
I had infest/damnation in the MD for quite some time but I found with 4x Kitchen Finks and 4x Lingering Souls I could hold off opposing creatures until drawing into either a PW or death cloud and control the game from there. I was thinking of putting one or two sweepers back into the MD or upping the Death Cloud/Garruk Wildspeaker count to 3 each.
Burn is still a tough matchup (even with 4x finks) and combo is tough to stop. The discard delays them but I found unless I land a Liliana of the Veil or a very fast clock I can't win consistently. Tron can also be difficult unless I get ahead quickly with hand disruption but they have the ability to just go over the top as the game goes on.
I think we have good matchups against most of the aggro, control, and midrange decks and we should devote most of our sideboard to beating combo.
I also want to fit in a couple of Eternal Witness and Primal Command into the main.
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Marsh Flats
1 Temple Garden
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Godless Shrine
3 Swamp
2 Forest
2 Plains
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2 Stirring Wildwood
1 Treetop Village
1 Golgari Rot Farm
Creatures - 12
4 Dark Confidant
4 Kitchen Finks
4 Lingering Souls
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
1 Raven's Crime
Removal - 7
1 Darkblast
2 Disfigure
2 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Death Cloud
Ramp - 4
1 Life from the Loam
4 Explore
Planeswalkers - 5
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
2 Liliana of the Veil
1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Damnation
2 Rain of Tears
2 Infest
2 Obstinate Baloth
3 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Primal Command
2 Stony Silence
CMC breakdown:
1 - 11
2 - 9
3 - 12
4 - 3
X - 2
Notes:
-All 12 creatures either draw cards or recur.
-8 T1 discard spells are great. Raven's crime helps during the late game, especially with a loam and allows for land-heavy openers.
-Primal Command was very effective in aggro matchups by fetching an Obstinate Baloth and either gaining 7 life or putting a land on top of the opponent's deck.
-Discard and Lingering souls are mostly used to protect the PWs (or Dark Confidant). Following up with a Death Cloud puts the opponent very far behind.
-Liliana of the Veil into Garruk Wildspeaker/Elspeth, Knight-Errant is tough to deal with.
-Liliana is one of the most powerful cards in the deck, any opening hand with Lingering Souls and Liliana is great. Liliana will almost always act as a 2-1 or shut a control player out of the game. Thinking about going up to 3.
-Dark Confidant allows for early offense/defense and then can be sac'd to Death Cloud if need be. Can also protect PWs.
-Trying Explore and Life from the loam over Sakura-Tribe Elder and Farseek; Explore is better in land-heavy openers and the late game but much worse if looking for a land drop. While loam does not ramp, it helps to ensure land drops when combined with fetchlands.
Future Changes:
-2 Maelstrom Pulse
+1 Life from the loam
+1 Smother (maybe swap out the disfigures?)
-Lingering souls already is great against opposing PWs (biggest benefit of Pulse over Smother)
I'm also working on a GBu build with gifts ungiven + loam engine.
Would it be good enough against the aggro decks running around to be worth 2 SB slots?
Deck list below
1 Birds of Paradise
2 Grim Lavamancer
4 Viridian Emissary
4 Chandra's Phoenix
1 Gilissa, the Traitor
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Olivia Voldaren
1 Acidic Slime
1 Primeval Titan
Instants (2)
2 Geistflame
Planeswalker (6)
3 Garruk Relentless
3 Liliana of the Veil
3 Despise
2 Distress
4 Arc Trail
2 Green Sun's Zenith
Land (24)
4 Swamp
3 Forest
3 Mountain
2 Woodland Cemetery
2 Dragonskull Summit
4 Copperline Gorge
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Kessig Wolf Run
2 Go for the throat
1 Doom Blade
3 Ancient Grudge
2 Acidic Slime
1 Naturalize
4 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Sword of Feast and Famine
Deck Discussion:
The idea behind the deck is to have efficient threats + disruption.
Disruption
Discard - Early despise to protect planeswalkers and distress to fight control
Burn - Geistflame, grim lavamancer and arc trail protect against aggro and burn out planeswalkers. Each spell has the potential for a 2+ for one
GSZ Targets
1: Birds of Paradise
2: Viridian Emissary
3: Glissa, the Traitor
4: Thrun, the Last Troll
5: Acidic Slime
6: Primeval Titan
Creature Threats
Most of the creatures are either highly resistant to removal or give value upon removal.
Viridian Emissary - Either beats in for 2 each turn or ramps. Will regularly get in for 8 before trading in for a land.
Glissa, the Traitor - Queen of combat, at worst trades with another first striker. Moat effect that can get in for 3 a turn
Chandra's Phoenix - Discard fodder for Liliana with 6 ways to recur the phoenix. Can beat control by itself (watch out for dissipate). I kept losing to this card and decided to try it out. Instantly became a 4 of. Eats planeswalkers/spirit tokens
Thrun, the last Troll - Read the card. Watch out for sac effects/BSZ/Phantasmal Image
Olivia Voldaren - If cast with 1R up can protect herself against the many 3 damage burn spells in the format. If you get to untap with her usually the game is over (easily a removal spell and pumping itself for +2/+2 each turn). Only time I've used control magic are against nobles.
Acidic Slime - Put them off of 6 lands, removal for trouble artifacts/o-ring
Primeval Titan - Fetch lands + Kessig Wolf Run
Other Threats
This deck is resistant to sweepers in that it drops a lot of non-creature threats as well:
Liliana of the Veil - 6 discard outlets (Phoenix + Geistflame). Because the deck's curve is relatively low I start pitching any lands over 4. Can easily control the game.
Garruk Relentless - Token generator + situational lightening bolt + tutor + overrun... likely the reason to splash green. The best threat in the deck
Kessig Wolf Run - Provides end game reach and puts the ramp from viridian emissary to good use
Mana/Mulliganing
The curve is as follows:
1CMC: 8
2CMC: 10
3CMC: 8
4CMC: 6
5CMC: 2
XCMC: 2
2/3 of the time you will have a 1 drop in the opening 7
9/10 of the time you will have a 1 or 2 drop in the opening 7
13 R sources
14 B sources
9 G sources
With 7 appropriate basics for each 'slow' land, hitting early drops isn't usually a problem.
Can arc trail/geistflame a viridian emissary if you really need to fix mana.
Want to hit BB and RR by turn 3, G by T2
>2/3 chance of each (although not essential, can play 1 or 2 drops on T3)
Tough hands to keep: Anything without a burn spell (vs. aggro) or 2/3 drop threats.
Matchup Overview
Control: The threat density should be more than control can handle most of the time. Use distress to pick out counters and despise to pick out fatties/snapcasters. Liliana is key here as you want them to either discard land or fatties.
Aggro: The amount of burn makes this a favorable matchup. Your creatures should outclass theirs quickly.
^Will specify archetypes after some DE's
Sideboard
Doom blade/go for the throat are for ramp/control matchups (sans delver) that the light burn can't handle.
Ancient Grudge is for tempered steel/wurmcoil
Acidic Slimes/naturalize for oblivion rings
Sword of Feast and Famine for ramp/control
Nihil Spellbomb for control/dredge
Edit: Want to try Primeval + Acidic Slime over 2 Bloodgift Demon
Given 4 BoP you have a ~40% chance of having one in your opening hand.
For this build I have 9 G sources that CITP untapped, having one in the opening hand P(T1G)~70% of the time.
This means that P(BoP|T1G) ~35% (you lose some percentage because you are assuming you drew a untapped G source).
This means that the probability of having a T1 birds is only P(T1BoP) = P(T1G)*P(BoP|T1G) ~ 25%
I upped the number of untapped G sources to 14 and this still only gives a P(T1BoP) ~ 30%
So my question is, is having a 25-30% chance of a 3 drop play on T2 worth the fragility of birds or is it better to just play more lands/caravan vigil for fixing since these are much less likely to be disrupted.
However, birds leads to some pretty broken plays such as T2 SoFaF or Liliana. However, if you have ~6 of these 3 drops, the chance of T1BoP to T2_3Drop is only ~10%.
P(T2_3D) = P(T1BoP)*P(3D|T1BoP) ~ 10%
The bottom line is I think that, unless you are running 8 mana dorks like a lot of GW lists, neglecting the 2 drop selection is very dangerous. So, the number of 3 drops will decrease leading to a T1 BoP play having a much lower chance of being broken.
Final bottom line: Unless you run more than one set of mana dorks it may not be worth it to run any at all???
I think the giant spider counters Chandra's Pheonix.
Sorry, I meant swapped out in my build. Still have the skinshifters.
I thought the porcelain legionnaires would be better than the perilous myrs because they still stop mirran crusader but also have the ability to beat in and take care of beast tokens.
The myr could be better against decks running mana dorks though and also has more value with sweepers (although going to the face isn't that great).
He seems like a good answer to mirran crusader and comes down a turn earlier.
He also handles beast tokens well.
The major downside is the one toughness, but most the other popular two drops also have 1 toughness. I traded 4x Skinshifters for 4x Legionnaire.
Matchups:
In my experience my toughest matchup is GW tokens. If they leave up mana, it's tough to pop their shrine. Does anyone have any suggestions for this matchup? I often find myself in a racing situation. Maybe a couple of ratchet bombs over BSZ?
Also, how do people deal with Chandra's Pheonix?? The only answers I thought of were Daybreak Ranger , Giant Spider and Sever the bloodline.
I generally have an answer for Crusader (8 MD), but it could be because I have a more controllish build.
Primer
A primer would be useful. I think there are two main Rock archetypes. One is more aggro/disruption and the other is more rampy.
Here are some cards that I think should be included (I'm obviously missing a lot):
Green Creatures: Great with Green Sun's Zenith
CMC=1
Birds of Paradise: Ramp. Can carry a sword
CMC=2
Mayor of Avabruck: Harder to flip than with draw-go, but can win by itself.
Viridian Emissary: Great vs. aggro, can BW/garruk to force the land.
Skinshifter: Very versatile and resilient. Can fly over with a sword.
CMC=3
Glissa: Wins against anything without prot. black
Dungrove Elder: Better with ramp
Viridian Corruptor: Good one-of as a GSZ target
CMC=4
Thrun: Great all around, only weakness is to Phantasmal Image
CMC=5
Acidic Slime: Blows up a land/oblivion ring/shrine, then trades up. Works well with mimic vat.
CMC=6
Primeval Titan: Can bring out Kessig wolf run + fixing + inkmoth nexus.
^Maybe make a green creature + GSZ silver bullet list?
Black/Artifact Creatures:
CMC=2
Perilous Myr: Counter to Mirran Crusader/aggro
CMC=4
Molten-tail Masticore: Good finisher. Watch out for Dismember
Solemn Simulacrum: Pure CA + ramp
Entomber Exarch: Very versatile
CMC=5
Bloodgift Demon: 5 power flyer that generates CA
CMC=6
Grave Titan: Finisher
Wurmcoil Engine: Finisher/good vs. aggro
Non-creature Ramp/Fixing
Rampant growth: Ramp. Rock generally has 2 drop creatures though.
Caravan Vigil: Situational ramp. Good T1 fixer. T2 Dismember their mana dork + ramp is nice.
Removal
Doom Blade: bad against grave titan, phyrexian obliterator
Go for the Throat: bad against wurmcoil engine
Victim of the night: probably the least misses but BB in cost
Dismember: great utility card, misses against titans
Tribute to hunger: great vs. hexproof/prot creatures
Black Sun's Zenith: sweeper
Disruption
Smallpox: disruption, LD
Beast Within: swiss army knife, make sure your creatures can beat the 3/3
Bramble Crush: Great non-creature removal
Utility
Green Sun's Zenith: Great creature tutor, this is why I run mostly green creatures. Can include silver bullet creatures as a 1-of.
Garruk Relentless: Removal/Creature Tutor/Token Geneator
Garruk, Primal Hunter: GGG may be tougher, bigger tokens/draw/finisher
Sword of Feast and Famine: Obviously good vs. Ramp/Mirror match. Tempo generator/disruption. Makes every creature a threat
Sword of War and Peace: Good vs. Aggro
Mimic Vat: Great vs. black heavy control. Get a Entomber Exarch/Acidic Slime or even a viridian emissary and you're good to go.
Here's my deck list (updated again), which focuses a lot more on disruption than ramp:
1 Birds of Paradise
4 Viridian Emissary
4 Skin Shifter
1 Gilissa, the Traitor
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
2 Molten-Tail Masticore
3 Acidic Slime
Instants (6)
3 Dismember
3 Beast Within
2 Garruk Relentless
Sorcery (12)
3 Caravan Vigil
3 Smallpox
4 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Black Sun's Zenith
Artifact (2)
2 Sword of Feast and Famine
Land (22)
10 Forest
6 Swamp
4 Woodland Cemetery
2 Inkmoth Nexus
2 Doom Blade
3 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Mimic Vat
2 Act of Aggression
1 Daybreak Ranger
1 Black Sun's Zenith
3 Creeping Corrosion
1 Viridian Corrupter
I cut my CMC at 5 since I'm running 3x smallpox. For the same reason I avoided 4x mana dorks for Caravan Vigil. I want to get in as many early beats as possible and then use one of my 4 mana finishers or swords + disruption.
Dismember over other removal for T1 mana dorks.
Try running some tribute to hunger or smallpox. If you have enough cheap spot removal, hit their mana dork EOT then drop the sac effect.
The sac cards are also decent against ramp/control because they generally only have one threat at a time. It is almost worthless vs. WW/GW though.
Also works with Liliana. Mirran Crusader with a sword is really scary..