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  • 0

    posted a message on [Primer] Zoo [Video Primer]
    Torpor bird is also really good against them. Havent been playing enough to know if its better than avan, which also hits scapeshift and tron too.


    Keep it in mind though!
    Posted in: Tier 2 (Modern)
  • 1

    posted a message on July-September FNM Promos (Reverse Engineer, Renegade Rallier, Fatal Push)
    I'm glad they are picking very good promos recently.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • 1

    posted a message on [[Official]] Modern Prices Discussion
    Quote from prismatic elf »
    Quote from max_vergara »
    So, Fatal Push will be September's FNM promo. Will it have any impact on the price? Now it's climbed to $10 and looks pretty strong there.
    Yes in the short it will drop but prices should rebound . I think it will follow Path to exile, it had a FNM printing didn't suppress its price if anything it drove demand. I'm holding on to my play set. I'll probably move out my Foils it depends if the art on the fnm version is bad or not.


    I've been saying this to everyone and getting a deaf ear. Its basically Path's future. More prints, but also more demand as black is the more popular color. And just like path warped standard play into white color, its doing it to black. They reprint it and it will STILL be following paths... path.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 0

    posted a message on [Primer] Zoo [Video Primer]
    Quote from TheLoneN00b »
    So is only Blitz versions of Zoo viable? Seems to be the only one to get results in recent events, and even then very sparringly. Is this deck even viable anymore?


    Sorry, been at work for 2 weeks so I couldnt answer. I'm famously the "I wish zoo was better" guy in this thread. I love zoo, a lot, favorite deck, but I also really like winning (like lugger said) so I play dredge. Zoo isnt dead by any means. The 2 forms of super aggro archetypes that zoo is, Green creature Sligh, and Green White Beats, just really arent all that good in modern. The main reason why is because the decks they beat, slower redundant combo, control decks, and tempo delver like decks dont really have a foothold in modern. Modern is fast aggro, aggro that doesnt care about removal, removal heavy midrange and fast combo.

    However, the power level of zoo is clearly there... Its like dinosaurs. They didnt go extinct because a comet hit the earth. It was because the comet made dust clouds which killed the crops that killed the things the T-rex ate. The T-Rex wasnt any less powerful, it didnt have prey.

    Zoo's in the same boat. Zoo's 2 viable options are Big Zoo and Little Zoo. Right now the best big zoo is some kinda rhonas strat with company or walkers. Right now the best little strat is blitz. Can they put up results? You bet your ass they can. But it have to fight "worse" matchups more than not because the free win matchups like delver and control are rare. Thus the divide between viable and usage. Zoo is a bad meta deck. Zoo is a good deck.

    Posted in: Tier 2 (Modern)
  • 1

    posted a message on Dredge
    Quote from dftr »
    Quote from drinkard »
    Quote from dftr »
    Quote from Lantern »


    Don't be fooled, this is NOT an anti-hate card, but instead should only be used as the grave version of Grudge, best against Boogles and enchantment matters decks.


    Lantern, I noticed this in the primer and I was wondering if you could expand. If my opponent plays RIP in game 2, for example, then shouldn't I bring in my Ray of Revelations for game 3?


    Well unless you're splashing white, it's going to be difficult to destroy a rest in peace with Ray of revelation.
    I'm also of the opinion that it's incorrect to bring in cards to destroy rest in peace. I feel that frequently enough, the initial trigger of rest in peace will beat you, and it's better to try to hit it with discard.
    You cast it with G in response to the trigger if it is in your graveyard (for those that are playing it; I'm not currently).

    gibbousm, personally I like the Bojuka Bog in place of 1 Brutality.


    Yea, I get that. That's why I said difficult, not that you can't do it.
    Just seems like having to have green mana up in case they play rest in peace, and then having your graveyard still get exiled isn't a good place to be.


    Sorry. Been out at work for a long time. Yes, basically this. Most higher dredge players have said ray is a wasted slot if you want to kill RiP with it. If you have a boggles meta, its fine to also side in vs RiP, but leaving the green up to destroy a RiP isnt very likely, and the white casting is alot harder for naturally drawn. Its just unrealistic. A thoughtseize to strip it is far more likely and far better.
    Posted in: Tier 1 (Modern)
  • 0

    posted a message on [Primer] Zoo [Video Primer]
    Messed around with a (really bad) 4 color zoo so I could test out Rhonas and Bone picker at the same time. I wouldnt run this deck ever again, but I got to get a full feel for the two cards, and realistically thats all I was after. Information on those.


    Bone Picker is a great card. I never had trouble casting it on turn 2 or later. In zoo creatures naturally die from attacks, plus most people bolt things as late as possible (read, your turn), or chumping your aggression. So I can see this card being bad in tempo like decks that want to abuse it, but not in aggro decks like zoo that are creature decks.

    That being said, warping your mana base isnt fun. If you are in black, and need more aggression with a 1 drop, yeah, Id take this over most other choices. I would run this if I wasnt running black though.

    Rhonas the Indomitable was stupid good. As long as it was enabled (I made sure the deck could do that no matter what) and he threatened lethal pretty much anytime he was on the board. He does everything a 3 drop top ender in zoo you want. He doesnt die. He attacks for tons of damage, and he enables any creature you have into game enders. I wish I could say he was the 3 drop we were always looking for.

    My issue is that he is legendary. Means you cant run more than 3 in faster zoo decks, 2 in longer game zoo decks like coco. So you still need to enable him with the other 3 drops and 2 drops. I'm pretty sure this guy takes the number 2 spot though for best 3 cmc. Ranking geist, then this, knight, anafenza smiter, then the rest.

    Rhonas does require a little bit of build around, but my guess is its worth the investment. All its asking is that you run things that either enable his attack or his ability, or both. And thats not hard. It does make some stuff a bit more ackward. Thalia, pridemage, ghor-clan stuff like that, because you do want him attacking quickly. I don't think its all that difficault to accomadate that. It is REALLY worth noting that E1 does turn it on well because it triggers on his entering and turns into a 4/4. You just gotta get E1 to trigger effectively.

    Overall, I would play Rhonas in pretty much every build of zoo cept those really wide explosive versions. It really needs a 5-8 goyf and 3 drop better than knight to funtion at its best, but overall a huge step for zoo.
    Posted in: Tier 2 (Modern)
  • 0

    posted a message on Dredge
    I havent played it all that much, but in the past it was sorta the same deal. They assemble the combo before you conflag its over. Sometimes dredge feels like RNG, you either hit cards or you dont.
    Posted in: Tier 1 (Modern)
  • 0

    posted a message on Cruel Control: Ultimate Ultimatum
    Moved 4 color control comments into its own thread. again, its fine to talk about lists that deviate alittle, but vast changes like mana bases have their own deck threads
    Posted in: Developing Competitive (Modern)
  • 0

    posted a message on [Primer] Zoo [Video Primer]
    I havent tested Rhonas at all yet, but my gut tells me he is probably one of the best 3 drops you can use without dipping into other colors. My only problem with him is he will only ever be secondary in the deck, unlike cards like geist of st traft or knight. he's legendary and industructable, so he doesnt double up and doesnt die (unlike geist) so max you can run is 3... but I think 2 is probably correct. and the other 3 drops in the deck NEED to be 4/4s, at least 4 more. You need goyf no matter what at this point, and likely the other 2 drops need to be able to grow to 4/x too.

    Where he fits best though I have no clue. 4/5 colors seems good because you can turn him on the easiest, coco is great because you can drop him off one, and little zoo as a finisher is good too.

    I think coco is probably the best for him right now. Ooze, mana dorks and knights are probably the easiest way to abuse him. Though I dream of my perfect curve stone. I will run him in 5 color when I get a hold of 3 copies probably, though cutting geist makes me sad panda. Maybe I can borrow some.
    Posted in: Tier 2 (Modern)
  • 3

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from Vissah »
    I agree with the one section for all the primers that are consistently so called Tier 1 and 2 at least.


    The idea has been around for a while. There are a new form of deck and primer thingy mtgsal is looking to implement in the future that might make that the best solution at some point, and if the system changes, well likely adpot that model.

    I'm not trying to be vague on that one. I literally dont know the details and its been in the works back burner for a while.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 0

    posted a message on [PRIMER] Abzan Midrange
    Moved to proven
    Posted in: Proven (Frontier)
  • 0

    posted a message on Dredge
    Quote from You41k »
    I am curious about the 2x Blackcleave Cliffs in the fetch manabase. I find that R/B lands to be essentially mountains with a downside a large percentage of the time...of course after sideboard black mana becomes more important. I have moved away from the cliffs in run another blood crypt and a fetch instead and found it to be much smoother as I can fetch up a green source if I want and still have another R/B land to get as well. I understand that it is more painful this way, but I think the consistency in mana makes up for it.

    Am I missing something or does it really just come down to making the mana less painful?


    Its pretty much got everything to do with pain.
    Posted in: Tier 1 (Modern)
  • 3

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from axman »
    Quote from Lantern »
    Quote from Tanukimo »
    Quote from acc95 »
    Quote from Tanukimo »
    Can anyone explain to me how the Tier system has changed on this site? Does it have to do with Ktkenshinx leaving?
    Apparently, Lantern has changed both the data source and the tiering cutoffs. Now it seems +1% decks are Tier 2 and +3% decks are Tier 1, roughyl. No official layout and/or explanation of changes by any mod so far.



    Thank you. It would be nice if the staff were more transparent about it.


    I am. Did you message me? Ive also been commenting on all the deck threads that asked about it.

    I'm not a god, I'm not telepathic. I'm a Television Studio Producer. I work about 75 hours a week, and do this on the side. No one is paying me. And my main Mod, who I trained and have been working with for literally years is leaving me. Next time anyone requests me to magically fix everything, they can just quote this.

    No offence. I've been modding this sub for literally a decade at this point, and its mostly people telling me how things are wrong. Sometimes I get thanked, most times I dont. I'm training 2 new mods now, so Maybe I can be free enough to actually do more work in the tiering.

    I'll be as clear as day here... and again. Yall can quote me on this if anyone asks again, it would save me the leg work of people thinking Im shafting them.

    THERE IS NO GOOD DATA FOR ME TO DRAW ON. Point blank. I can use MTG goldfish, but their data is incomplete and they only hold a month of data on file, and when they update they dump 3 weeks of data and start fresh every month. Thats pretty bad for a non rotating slow to change format.

    I can use top 8, like I'm doing right now, that does 2 months of data, but has random data holes and weighs everything pretty equally. So theres problems there too.

    I can use modern nexus... when they remember to update. They are always late, and depending on them lately has been like throwing a paper plane and hoping it comes back sometime. (If you are reading this modern nexus, sorry. I was extremely pleased by the site, but every update has been weeks late for about a half a year now.)

    I can use mainphase's data. Even messaged them (because people assume I havent been trying to fix this problem) asking about the data and more information. Im waiting on replies.

    To be clear. You are asking me to be on top of an issue that has no good answers while I also have to feed my family AND train 2 new mods and clean up a forum missing the best partner I ever had.

    I'm not going to ask for sympathy over here, or call out selfishness, but I will ask for understanding and patience. Come on. Cut some slack.


    Do you adjust for MTGO figures? The challenge is MTGO does not have top 8. As a result if you try to apply a top 8 methodology to both MTGO and paper magic equally... it's going to skew results.


    For example, in Legacy D&T sees little to no play on MTGO due to the cost. As a result if you were to look at the top 8 statistics including MTGO it looks like D&T is only 3-5% of the meta (when in fact, it is far more popular in paper). When you look at paper only events, the meta of D&T raises to 7%. Which is a substantial increase.




    Realistically, I know some people want tiering to be based off skill and skill alone, but we haven't had access to win rates in forever, and most tiering systems, if not all of them, still have some fraction of popularity bais too. A good example is pokemon. Pokemon tiering does go off win rates... but the exact tiering they use in smogon still has people voting for the pokemon to be promoted or demoted based on wins they need to supply test evidence with. No one really loves chancy but wont deny how good of a wall it is, but gengar is currently rank A, even though its been nerfed to hell because people still like gengar.

    Our tiering still represents popularity AND wins:

    • Tier 1- A deck you WILL see in day 2 GP like touriments
    • Tier 2- A deck you have a fair chance at seeing in a day 2 GP
    • Proven- Decks that either were good in the past and people still might run, or decks that are rising in popularity. Its unlikely you will see them, but you should know what they are to be prepared.
    Wins factor in, but so does popularity. If I, a guy who knows the Ins and outs of Zoo like pretty much no one else, take zoo, a barely tier 2 if not just proven deck to a gp... I probably will day 2 with it. Some people could see my success, start to use it and just like that the deck is winning more, based off popularity and presived "good deck"

    Zoo is a great deck, but the decks it beats, delver and control arent popular right now, thus it is a bad deck... Popularity and success are intermixed there.

    Quote from Aazadan »
    Quote from Lantern »

    THERE IS NO GOOD DATA FOR ME TO DRAW ON. Point blank. I can use MTG goldfish, but their data is incomplete and they only hold a month of data on file, and when they update they dump 3 weeks of data and start fresh every month. Thats pretty bad for a non rotating slow to change format.


    Would it be possible for mtgs to build it's own data pool over time? For example storing others data and using it to build trends after a few months?

    Sure it could be. But we run into the same problem as last time. People dont want to spend time to do it and give it up. Im not trying to reinvent my data source every half year

    Quote from ktkenshinx »
    Quote from idSurge »
    First: Lantern, you are beholden to nobody. I (and others) asked for criteria just so we could make sense of what was done, but in the end this is a hobby for all or most of us.

    Second: We need to try to establish what tiers are. You can see over the last several pages some discussion around this.

    Are they representation?
    Are they power?
    Are they performance and results?

    Or is it a combination? I dont think we can base it on power, as thats difficult to judge. Nor can we base it on representation, because not everyone is going to flip to Jund, from some Jank, just because they are told Jund is tier 1.

    The most fair metric, will be results.

    If we had a way to track data for Top 8's and 5-0's, that would be ideal to see general trends, but even those numbers as HolyDiva outlined could EASILY be skewed by a few grinders in the case of MTGO.

    People need to stop being completely infatuated with tiers, and I know I do it too, but decks that are not Tier 1 can have play, even if not popular.



    Quote from egoblinsw »

    This. I play goblins in legacy, and in terms of MWP it's very very good. But because representation is low, it rarely breaks T8. Low representation decks underperform in results based metrics.

    There is no good dataset for MWPs. Data either comes from single players (small N, player skill can matter more than deck performance, high matchup variance, etc.) or from single events (similar issues as above, notably with sample and match variance). This would have been feasible in the days of MTGO replays and scraping software, but it isn't now.

    I really don't get why people are trying to reinvent the wheel given Modern's current information sources. The prevalence-based tiering system was largely accurate and largely liked, and that has been true for years. If we had access to stuff like MWPs or matchup-specific data then great, I'm sure many would happily use it. Same if we had Day 1 to Day 2 to Top 8 conversion rates. But we don't have any of that information, especially not on a consistent basis. Because of that, prevalence-based metrics are the next best thing. Those metrics also aren't inaccurate. Even when we did get conversion rate data and MWP information, it rarely changed the top-tier picture too much, and few sleepers like Amulet Bloom and Lantern were missed.

    It's a bummer that Modern Nexus is behind with consistent metagame updates. Mainphase's updates are frequent but they have small Ns and questionable (maybe even arbitrary) cutoffs. Hopefully the format can get the best of both those worlds soon, or someone steps up to fill in those gaps.


    I keep nexus open on my tabs. I refresh it once a day to see if it has updated. Were 3 days late at this point, and everytime its late I have to change my "when does the forum refresh" date. It sucks. I wish it was better. I like the site.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 21

    posted a message on State of Modern Thread: bans, format health, metagame, and more! (3/13 update)
    Quote from Tanukimo »
    Quote from acc95 »
    Quote from Tanukimo »
    Can anyone explain to me how the Tier system has changed on this site? Does it have to do with Ktkenshinx leaving?
    Apparently, Lantern has changed both the data source and the tiering cutoffs. Now it seems +1% decks are Tier 2 and +3% decks are Tier 1, roughyl. No official layout and/or explanation of changes by any mod so far.



    Thank you. It would be nice if the staff were more transparent about it.


    I am. Did you message me? Ive also been commenting on all the deck threads that asked about it.

    I'm not a god, I'm not telepathic. I'm a Television Studio Producer. I work about 75 hours a week, and do this on the side. No one is paying me. And my main Mod, who I trained and have been working with for literally years is leaving me. Next time anyone requests me to magically fix everything, they can just quote this.

    No offence. I've been modding this sub for literally a decade at this point, and its mostly people telling me how things are wrong. Sometimes I get thanked, most times I dont. I'm training 2 new mods now, so Maybe I can be free enough to actually do more work in the tiering.

    I'll be as clear as day here... and again. Yall can quote me on this if anyone asks again, it would save me the leg work of people thinking Im shafting them.

    THERE IS NO GOOD DATA FOR ME TO DRAW ON. Point blank. I can use MTG goldfish, but their data is incomplete and they only hold a month of data on file, and when they update they dump 3 weeks of data and start fresh every month. Thats pretty bad for a non rotating slow to change format.

    I can use top 8, like I'm doing right now, that does 2 months of data, but has random data holes and weighs everything pretty equally. So theres problems there too.

    I can use modern nexus... when they remember to update. They are always late, and depending on them lately has been like throwing a paper plane and hoping it comes back sometime. (If you are reading this modern nexus, sorry. I was extremely pleased by the site, but every update has been weeks late for about a half a year now.)

    I can use mainphase's data. Even messaged them (because people assume I havent been trying to fix this problem) asking about the data and more information. Im waiting on replies.

    To be clear. You are asking me to be on top of an issue that has no good answers while I also have to feed my family AND train 2 new mods and clean up a forum missing the best partner I ever had.

    I'm not going to ask for sympathy over here, or call out selfishness, but I will ask for understanding and patience. Come on. Cut some slack.
    Posted in: Modern
  • 0

    posted a message on Jeskai Control
    Since Nahiri control hasnt been "data driven winning" this thread is re opened to pretty much all URW control talk.
    Posted in: Tier 2 (Modern)
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