How has quicken been working out for you? Also, have you considered running some planeswalkers since your deck goes more for late game wins?
It has been fantastic. Aside from simply being a cantrip, making pyromancer tokens and buffing chimera Quicken also provided value in 'hiding' one of the cards you draw off of Steam Augury. Any time you reveal a Quicken what you're virtually revealing is the card that's on top of your deck. This isn't a small thing! It gives Steam Augury yet another layer of awesome.
As for Planeswalkers, I have tried Jace AoT in my current build but find that he's a little clunky and usually good against the decks I'm already favoured to beat. I have tried Ral Zarek because I've got no way to use his untapping ability. I could see Chandra being pretty strong, but I'm not totally convinced that we gain anything by squeezing her in. The list is pretty tight for slots as is. Big Jace is a reasonable SB answer to removal heavy control decks, but I've found that bringing in all of the counterspells is usually enough to clear the way for a huge chimera at the end of the game.
I'm not sure if my deck belongs in this thread, as it doesn't really play much like a burn deck at all. It's definitely more of a control deck that tries to grind out for the late game, but it -can- have reasonably aggressive draws.
It started out as a more generic combo/aggro deck with Guttersnipes, Weirds, and a bunch more burn but I kept hitting a brick wall against both control and the bigger aggro deck, so this is where I landed.
Prognostic Sphinx has been a complete allstar. I highly suggest trying him over Stormbreath Dragon. His ability to self protect has carried games time and time again. He blanks 75%+ of the creatures you'll see and only dies to Supreme Verdict. While Stormbreath is a faster clock, there's no rush with this set-up so the resiliency is key.
While I've been grinding a lot of matches I haven't had nearly enough time against the field to know what exact matchup breakdowns, my first 20-30 matches have all seemed winnable, if not favourable.
That list seems.. confused. How often will Lich do anything useful considering you only have 6 targets for it? Also, could you explain how the average game against an Emissary chain plays out? I don't see any concessions to aggro in the main.
It has proven to be remarkably successful in testing. I spent a long time tinkering to find a real answer against aggro, including the red splash for Rolling Temblors, the white splash for Terminus and Lingering Souls, ect. Gloom Surgeon is the man for the job. I really suggest you guys try him out. I'm seriously considering switching him to mainboard.
Desecration Demon is the real deal. While he's soft against token strategies (which don't really exist right now) he in nearly unremovable against most decks and provides both a speedbump and and a wincon. Going turn 2 removal, turn 3 Lili or Nighthawk, turn 4 Demon happens frequently and almost always ends in a win.
Mutilate is hot and cold for me because of the low number of swamps.. usually 2 is enough on the draw to stop the super fast aggro and Huntmaster.. but I do find myself wishing it was Barter in Blood again every once in a while. I'm going to test out removing the 2 Breeding Pools for +1 Watery Grave/+1 Overgrown Tomb but being able to leave open both Think Twice AND Abrupt Decay on turn 2 is very common play for me.
Garruk has been notably more useful than I expect from him. Maybe it's because he has been so 'meh' in every other deck I've put him in.. but being able to kill a Huntmaster or simply trade with Olivia on the draw is worthy of inclusion. With that said, he has done so much more. There have been many times where sacrificing a token to tutor for Snapcaster was the nail in the coffin. And then there's tutoring for value in Thragtusk or Demon. I do wish there was one sweet late-game target.. maybe 1 or 2 Prime Speaker Zegana is where I want to be. Sphinx of Uthuun, as mentioned earlier in the thread, may be reasonable as well. The deck needs -something- that can trump an active Staff of Nin, though. I've found the card to be endlessly frustrating as I have literally no way of interacting with it.
Cards that I have tried and moved away from:
Farseek - This was a champion when I was running a heavier high end in Vrsaka, Tamiyo, Jace, Big Garruk, ect. As I lowered my average casting cost I found it to be less and less impressive. The list is sitting around 2.75, lower including the SB slots. These became Think Twice.
Deathrite Shaman (main deck) - Simply put, he wasn't doing enough. Without a way to bin lands efficiently I found myself wishing he was a removal spell against aggro more and more. While the lifegain -can- help, I've found that most of the Boros/Naya decks are way more explosive than they used to be. Chumping a turn 2 Lightning Mauler is about as effective as he'd be most games. However, his application against graveyard strats and various control decks is unmatched. I wouldn't move the 4 out of the side.
Vraska - Oh man, this was a difficult thing to do. I realized that I had been playing her simply because the card is "badass" and, really, most of the time she was a 5 mana removal spell that gained me 2 life. She has fringe application in a 'big control' shell, but sadly Tamiyo might be more useful in almost every circumstance.
Cyclonic Rift - This is one that I keep bringing in and out of the 75 (well, 15). It's very clunky. While it's a haymaker against midrange control decks, I have a hard time buying enough time to cast it against anyone with a true clock. It was more impressive in the superfriends shell, but I can't say I've missed it all too much.
Jace, Witchbane Orb, Drownyard - These all fell to the wayside as I made the deck more aggressive. Jace may have a place in the sideboard, but if things are going according to plan I'm proactively controlling the board rather than sitting back trying to mill them out.
Dissipate and Syncopate - The format is too aggressive for these. Dispel was bumped up to a 3-of in the side to give me some game against Sphinx's Revelation and the more counter-heavy Bant lists, so I haven't missed them. Syncopate for 1 to disrupt Naya's Emissary chain was cute.. but we have better plays.
---
As for cards that I'm actively testing, I think Quirion Dryad might deserve a look. Same goes for Mayor of Avabrook and even Duskmantle Seer. But each would involve a serious retooling to make them effective.
tl;dr this deck is fantastically fun, but we have to stay realistic in our card choices.
I'd hate to sound like a broken record but I'm not sold on leaving out Faithless Looting. Aside from sculpting your hand very well, it also serves the purpose of allowing you to cast loam twice more reasonably in a turn than Izzet Charm.
The more I've played with deprive the less I've liked it in matchups that aren't Tron, and even then it's usually not enough to stop them. To that end, perhaps it should be in the side? It's such an awkward card sometimes.
Regarding the Tron matchup, I really don't think it's salvageable. If they "go off" and assemble in the first five turns or so there's nothing we can do without drawing magically into Ghost Quarter every game. Such a crap shoot. Sowing Salt seems a turn too slow. They have imminence and pressure that we lack.. Could LD be the answer? Boom/Bust and Stone Rain? It will slow our kill down but if we stop them from casting Karns, Mindslaver locks and Eldrazi early we should be able to grind them out if it goes long.
I think we need to invest heavily in beating them.. as it's the only strategy that really goes over the top on us. The Twin decks (POD or standard) are all easy enough to beat by playing carefully.. Tron just dunks on us.
EDIT: It's worth noting that Scapeshift is starting to gather some steam.. so the LD package might serve double duty in the coming months.
My two major concerns with your list are the inclusion of Grim Lavamancer and Worm Harvest.
Most Loam players stopped running Harvest a long time ago. In a field of Pod, Combo and Tron a bunch of little 1/1s aren't getting you there fast enough. Also, this deck really wants to function on 3, sometimes 4 lands. Tapping out on five means you're not activating Loam, you're not activating DRS, you're not looting for more Loam triggers.. and the downside of sometimes taking 5 from Bob equals one unplayable card. Who is it good against?
As for Lavamancer, it might be a matter of taste.. but between DRS and Loam, I don't know how often he might be relevant. I really -really- like the card, but aside from the line of:
T1: Fetch, crack, Lavamancer
T2: Fetch, crack, kill your bird.
After that.. I don't see it. I'd take take DRS over it every day.
I'm finding that the RUG list is a good turn or two slower to assemble the combo most games. While both lists are very, very weak to Abrupt Decay, the Jund list can disrupt the opponents hand enough where a midgame Assault is likely to stick.
The counter suite of RUG is pretty good against midrange and control decks (which don't really exist in the format in any notable way). It's about two turns too slow against the aggressive red decks. I could never stabilize. The matchup against Zoo/bant is salvageable only with sweepers. I think we need Volcanic Fallout in the maindeck.. but where? And at what cost?
I have liked Thought Scour and (sometimes) Izzet Charm, but they both severely lack the digging power of Faithless Looting. One major factor is that Looting is still valuable when milled. Charm being EOT has won me some games but it feels.. clunky.
Running Deathrite without black mana has been wasteful. Turn 2 Jace is neat, but I'm rarely comfortable dropping a turn 2 Assault without a grip full of lands. Neither play is nearly as strong as a turn 2 Lili.
Killing big Goyfs is a problem for the deck, that goes without saying. Not having Abrupt Decay sucks.. but up until recently the Jund list didn't have it either so maybe we're a bit pampered.
As much as I like the deck and want it to be legit, I feel like there are too many missing pieces.. However a splash of blue for Snapcaster and some utility may be useful moving forward.
This is the coolest deck in modern. No joke. And very reasonable for high school budgets
Does it actually perform? It looks really cool, but how does it do vs. the current meta?
Edit: How would the deck benefit from cards like Lingering Souls? I'm going to test this.
I'm satisfied with it against most of the field, however it lacks the quick kills that the "standard" Assault Loam list can draw into. The storm match-up is poor game 1 and then a toss up game 2.
I've never had a hard time against affinity, bant, or delver/tempo. Jund and Pod are both even g1 and favourable after boarding. Our game against tron is soft across the board but salvageable if you get the combo together quickly or resolve an early Swan. I haven't tested against dredgevine thoroughly enough to comment on it, but keeping Vengevine off the table shouldn't be -too- hard considering the vast amount of removal. RDW can be troublesome (as I removed the Timely Reinforcements from the yard in favour of the counter suite). Given the rise of Eggs, Epic Storm and Dredgevine I think the sideboard needs a concession to graveyard strategies.
However, the core list is refined. I spent a lot of time testing and sculpting. The manabase is ugly. Very ugly, but the turn you sometimes lose in tempo is worth the 6-8 life you're saving from having a full set of shocks and fetches.
I can't say it's stronger than the Jund Assault Loam list.. but it's far, far more fun to pilot and arguably more skill intensive as our spells aren't as swingy.
Steppe is cute but in reality it's far too narrow and awkward to draw without Knight. Bojuka Bog is reasonable, though. Same with Horizon Canopy to harness that power for direct card advantage. But more times than not you're going to tap your forest, sac, grab a fetch, crack it. +2/+2 Knight, and one free mana in your pool.
To answer your first question, the most powerful deck in the room will likely be RG Tron. Their main (and only) strategy is to go over the top. There is a lot of overlap in the list so they're hard to disrupt for any serious amount of time.
However, Tron is not the end all be all of the format.. they do big things but the aggressive strategies in the format really keep them in check. You have the aggressive combo strats (Storm, Twin, Pod) which are looking to aggressively move in to take the game quickly. These decks have a non-zero chance of killing you with their opening hands.
Then you have the get you to 0 decks (RDW, Boros, Tokens, Affinity, Zoo, Bant, Hawks, Delver {RUG and RWU}). While they each have a different angle of attack, they are all supremely efficient creature decks that will tempo you out and force you to play on your heels. Zoo, especially, is (as always) well positioned as it can race out the combo decks largely thanks to Thalia while exchanging haymakers with the midrange decks via exalted and KotR.
And then there's the "rest", split in to two categories: control and midrange. Jund is the prime 'tier 1' example of this, but other decks do exist. They're slightly slower than Zoo but gain more value than Tron. UW Control is a deck (like in literally every other format ever). Esper Teachings is still a deck (if you can figure out the RDW and Zoo matchups). Grixis Control the real deal. Aggro Loam and Combo Loam rest in the grey area between control, combo and midrange.
While this doesn't cover -everything- people are playing (various second-rate combo decks, tribal aggro strats, reanimation and graveyard strats ect), I think it lines up all of the 'major players' quite nicely.
With that said, if I were to play in a PT tomorrow and I wanted the best chances at winning I would sleeve up either Aggro Loam or Jund as they're very well positioned against a blind meta (even though their combo matchups are both very poor).
There is absolutely no reason to run Strangleroot Geist over Tarmogoyf. KotR is very important for this type of list, too, since it gives you the ability to go over the top of more midrange decks.
Most zoo decks (which you're playing an underpowered build of) have started leaning on Thalia as their primary two-drop as it has such good game against control and combo decks.
How are you feeling about the 2 maindeck Noxious Revivals? I've filled up the spot of the second with a miser's Jund Charm. I'm usually unhappy to see Revival in my opening seven.. how has it treated you?
Which part of Jund are you struggling against? We match them in Lili wars, we can recur ghost quarter against manlands. We have an easier time removing their bobs and goyfs and roughly equal disruption..
Really, we're playing "Jund" in a lot of ways.. the core of our deck (especially early game) plays out a lot like theirs but we aren't slowed down by CIPT lands. We can easily go over the top of their midrange by locking their creatures out with a well-timed assault assuming that you can IoK their pulse.
Our real trump card is Faithless Looting. It allows us to sculpt our hand in a way they can not.. so we're virtually running extra Lili's, extra GQ's, extra goyfs, extra bobs. You see what I'm getting at.
To get back on the actual strategy against Jund, I've found it very important to control their pulses. Most lists only run 3, so if you can bait one out on a Lili or a Goyf before they recognize you're playing Loam, you have a reasonable chance of not seeing another in the early turns.
To me, it feels like we're all but set maindeck to deal with them. Fulminator Mage is a champ!
It has been fantastic. Aside from simply being a cantrip, making pyromancer tokens and buffing chimera Quicken also provided value in 'hiding' one of the cards you draw off of Steam Augury. Any time you reveal a Quicken what you're virtually revealing is the card that's on top of your deck. This isn't a small thing! It gives Steam Augury yet another layer of awesome.
As for Planeswalkers, I have tried Jace AoT in my current build but find that he's a little clunky and usually good against the decks I'm already favoured to beat. I have tried Ral Zarek because I've got no way to use his untapping ability. I could see Chandra being pretty strong, but I'm not totally convinced that we gain anything by squeezing her in. The list is pretty tight for slots as is. Big Jace is a reasonable SB answer to removal heavy control decks, but I've found that bringing in all of the counterspells is usually enough to clear the way for a huge chimera at the end of the game.
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Spellheart Chimera
2 Prognostic Sphinx
Spells 25
4 Quicken
3 Magma Jet
3 Lightning Strike
2 Izzet Charm
2 Mizzium Mortars
2 Turn//Burn
2 Essence Scatter
2 Dissolve
1 Counterflux
3 Steam Augury
1 Thoughtflare
1 Opportunity
4 Izzet Guildgate
4 Steam Vents
7 Mountain
8 Island
2 Mutavault
2 Dispel
2 Pithing Needle
1 Cyclonic Rift
1 Magma Jet
3 Negate
2 Turn//Burn
2 Izzet Staticaster
2 Curse of the Swine
I'm not sure if my deck belongs in this thread, as it doesn't really play much like a burn deck at all. It's definitely more of a control deck that tries to grind out for the late game, but it -can- have reasonably aggressive draws.
It started out as a more generic combo/aggro deck with Guttersnipes, Weirds, and a bunch more burn but I kept hitting a brick wall against both control and the bigger aggro deck, so this is where I landed.
Prognostic Sphinx has been a complete allstar. I highly suggest trying him over Stormbreath Dragon. His ability to self protect has carried games time and time again. He blanks 75%+ of the creatures you'll see and only dies to Supreme Verdict. While Stormbreath is a faster clock, there's no rush with this set-up so the resiliency is key.
While I've been grinding a lot of matches I haven't had nearly enough time against the field to know what exact matchup breakdowns, my first 20-30 matches have all seemed winnable, if not favourable.
4 Drowned Catacomb
3 Watery Grave
3 Overgrown Tomb
4 Woodland Cemetery
2 Breeding Pool
3 Hinterland Harbor
5 Swamp
Creatures (13)
3 Thragtusk
4 Desecration Demon
2 Vampire Nighthawk
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Garruk Relentless
4 Liliana of the Veil
Sorcery (3)
3 Mutiltate
Instant (14)
2 Forbidden Alchemy
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Think Twice
1 Dimir Charm
1 Ultimate Price
1 Devour Flesh
3 Tragic Slip
4 Deathrite Shaman
3 Dispel
2 Duress
2 Pithing Needle
3 Gloom Surgeon
1 Sever the Bloodline
It has proven to be remarkably successful in testing. I spent a long time tinkering to find a real answer against aggro, including the red splash for Rolling Temblors, the white splash for Terminus and Lingering Souls, ect. Gloom Surgeon is the man for the job. I really suggest you guys try him out. I'm seriously considering switching him to mainboard.
Desecration Demon is the real deal. While he's soft against token strategies (which don't really exist right now) he in nearly unremovable against most decks and provides both a speedbump and and a wincon. Going turn 2 removal, turn 3 Lili or Nighthawk, turn 4 Demon happens frequently and almost always ends in a win.
Mutilate is hot and cold for me because of the low number of swamps.. usually 2 is enough on the draw to stop the super fast aggro and Huntmaster.. but I do find myself wishing it was Barter in Blood again every once in a while. I'm going to test out removing the 2 Breeding Pools for +1 Watery Grave/+1 Overgrown Tomb but being able to leave open both Think Twice AND Abrupt Decay on turn 2 is very common play for me.
Garruk has been notably more useful than I expect from him. Maybe it's because he has been so 'meh' in every other deck I've put him in.. but being able to kill a Huntmaster or simply trade with Olivia on the draw is worthy of inclusion. With that said, he has done so much more. There have been many times where sacrificing a token to tutor for Snapcaster was the nail in the coffin. And then there's tutoring for value in Thragtusk or Demon. I do wish there was one sweet late-game target.. maybe 1 or 2 Prime Speaker Zegana is where I want to be. Sphinx of Uthuun, as mentioned earlier in the thread, may be reasonable as well. The deck needs -something- that can trump an active Staff of Nin, though. I've found the card to be endlessly frustrating as I have literally no way of interacting with it.
Cards that I have tried and moved away from:
Farseek - This was a champion when I was running a heavier high end in Vrsaka, Tamiyo, Jace, Big Garruk, ect. As I lowered my average casting cost I found it to be less and less impressive. The list is sitting around 2.75, lower including the SB slots. These became Think Twice.
Deathrite Shaman (main deck) - Simply put, he wasn't doing enough. Without a way to bin lands efficiently I found myself wishing he was a removal spell against aggro more and more. While the lifegain -can- help, I've found that most of the Boros/Naya decks are way more explosive than they used to be. Chumping a turn 2 Lightning Mauler is about as effective as he'd be most games. However, his application against graveyard strats and various control decks is unmatched. I wouldn't move the 4 out of the side.
Vraska - Oh man, this was a difficult thing to do. I realized that I had been playing her simply because the card is "badass" and, really, most of the time she was a 5 mana removal spell that gained me 2 life. She has fringe application in a 'big control' shell, but sadly Tamiyo might be more useful in almost every circumstance.
Cyclonic Rift - This is one that I keep bringing in and out of the 75 (well, 15). It's very clunky. While it's a haymaker against midrange control decks, I have a hard time buying enough time to cast it against anyone with a true clock. It was more impressive in the superfriends shell, but I can't say I've missed it all too much.
Jace, Witchbane Orb, Drownyard - These all fell to the wayside as I made the deck more aggressive. Jace may have a place in the sideboard, but if things are going according to plan I'm proactively controlling the board rather than sitting back trying to mill them out.
Dissipate and Syncopate - The format is too aggressive for these. Dispel was bumped up to a 3-of in the side to give me some game against Sphinx's Revelation and the more counter-heavy Bant lists, so I haven't missed them. Syncopate for 1 to disrupt Naya's Emissary chain was cute.. but we have better plays.
---
As for cards that I'm actively testing, I think Quirion Dryad might deserve a look. Same goes for Mayor of Avabrook and even Duskmantle Seer. But each would involve a serious retooling to make them effective.
tl;dr this deck is fantastically fun, but we have to stay realistic in our card choices.
The more I've played with deprive the less I've liked it in matchups that aren't Tron, and even then it's usually not enough to stop them. To that end, perhaps it should be in the side? It's such an awkward card sometimes.
Regarding the Tron matchup, I really don't think it's salvageable. If they "go off" and assemble in the first five turns or so there's nothing we can do without drawing magically into Ghost Quarter every game. Such a crap shoot. Sowing Salt seems a turn too slow. They have imminence and pressure that we lack.. Could LD be the answer? Boom/Bust and Stone Rain? It will slow our kill down but if we stop them from casting Karns, Mindslaver locks and Eldrazi early we should be able to grind them out if it goes long.
I think we need to invest heavily in beating them.. as it's the only strategy that really goes over the top on us. The Twin decks (POD or standard) are all easy enough to beat by playing carefully.. Tron just dunks on us.
EDIT: It's worth noting that Scapeshift is starting to gather some steam.. so the LD package might serve double duty in the coming months.
Most Loam players stopped running Harvest a long time ago. In a field of Pod, Combo and Tron a bunch of little 1/1s aren't getting you there fast enough. Also, this deck really wants to function on 3, sometimes 4 lands. Tapping out on five means you're not activating Loam, you're not activating DRS, you're not looting for more Loam triggers.. and the downside of sometimes taking 5 from Bob equals one unplayable card. Who is it good against?
As for Lavamancer, it might be a matter of taste.. but between DRS and Loam, I don't know how often he might be relevant. I really -really- like the card, but aside from the line of:
T1: Fetch, crack, Lavamancer
T2: Fetch, crack, kill your bird.
After that.. I don't see it. I'd take take DRS over it every day.
also: where's Goyf?!
The counter suite of RUG is pretty good against midrange and control decks (which don't really exist in the format in any notable way). It's about two turns too slow against the aggressive red decks. I could never stabilize. The matchup against Zoo/bant is salvageable only with sweepers. I think we need Volcanic Fallout in the maindeck.. but where? And at what cost?
I have liked Thought Scour and (sometimes) Izzet Charm, but they both severely lack the digging power of Faithless Looting. One major factor is that Looting is still valuable when milled. Charm being EOT has won me some games but it feels.. clunky.
Running Deathrite without black mana has been wasteful. Turn 2 Jace is neat, but I'm rarely comfortable dropping a turn 2 Assault without a grip full of lands. Neither play is nearly as strong as a turn 2 Lili.
Killing big Goyfs is a problem for the deck, that goes without saying. Not having Abrupt Decay sucks.. but up until recently the Jund list didn't have it either so maybe we're a bit pampered.
As much as I like the deck and want it to be legit, I feel like there are too many missing pieces.. However a splash of blue for Snapcaster and some utility may be useful moving forward.
I'm satisfied with it against most of the field, however it lacks the quick kills that the "standard" Assault Loam list can draw into. The storm match-up is poor game 1 and then a toss up game 2.
I've never had a hard time against affinity, bant, or delver/tempo. Jund and Pod are both even g1 and favourable after boarding. Our game against tron is soft across the board but salvageable if you get the combo together quickly or resolve an early Swan. I haven't tested against dredgevine thoroughly enough to comment on it, but keeping Vengevine off the table shouldn't be -too- hard considering the vast amount of removal. RDW can be troublesome (as I removed the Timely Reinforcements from the yard in favour of the counter suite). Given the rise of Eggs, Epic Storm and Dredgevine I think the sideboard needs a concession to graveyard strategies.
However, the core list is refined. I spent a lot of time testing and sculpting. The manabase is ugly. Very ugly, but the turn you sometimes lose in tempo is worth the 6-8 life you're saving from having a full set of shocks and fetches.
I can't say it's stronger than the Jund Assault Loam list.. but it's far, far more fun to pilot and arguably more skill intensive as our spells aren't as swingy.
4 Reflecting Pool
1 Mystic Gate
2 Fire-Lit Thicket
1 Stomping Ground
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Vivid Meadow
1 Vivid Crag
1 Vivid Creek
1 Vivid Grove
2 Arid Mesa
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Copperline Gorge
2 Forest
2 Mountain
1 Island
1 Plains
1 Dryad Arbor
4 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Realms Uncharted
Sorcery (10)
2 Idyllic Tutor
1 Worm Harvest
2 Treasure Hunt
3 Life from the Loam
2 Primal Command
Creatures (7)
4 Bloodbraid Elf
3 Swans of Bryn Argoll
Enchantments (5)
3 Seismic Assault
1 Trade Routes
1 Oblivion Ring
2 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Spell Pierce
2 Dispel
2 Day of Judgement
1 Eternal Witness
2 Kitchen Finks
2 Nature's Claim
1 Pyroclasm
1 Volcanic Fallout
It's a little more midrange than the standard lists, it has a lot of action and almost never has a hard time assembling the pieces.
This.
Steppe is cute but in reality it's far too narrow and awkward to draw without Knight. Bojuka Bog is reasonable, though. Same with Horizon Canopy to harness that power for direct card advantage. But more times than not you're going to tap your forest, sac, grab a fetch, crack it. +2/+2 Knight, and one free mana in your pool.
To answer your first question, the most powerful deck in the room will likely be RG Tron. Their main (and only) strategy is to go over the top. There is a lot of overlap in the list so they're hard to disrupt for any serious amount of time.
However, Tron is not the end all be all of the format.. they do big things but the aggressive strategies in the format really keep them in check. You have the aggressive combo strats (Storm, Twin, Pod) which are looking to aggressively move in to take the game quickly. These decks have a non-zero chance of killing you with their opening hands.
Then you have the get you to 0 decks (RDW, Boros, Tokens, Affinity, Zoo, Bant, Hawks, Delver {RUG and RWU}). While they each have a different angle of attack, they are all supremely efficient creature decks that will tempo you out and force you to play on your heels. Zoo, especially, is (as always) well positioned as it can race out the combo decks largely thanks to Thalia while exchanging haymakers with the midrange decks via exalted and KotR.
And then there's the "rest", split in to two categories: control and midrange. Jund is the prime 'tier 1' example of this, but other decks do exist. They're slightly slower than Zoo but gain more value than Tron. UW Control is a deck (like in literally every other format ever). Esper Teachings is still a deck (if you can figure out the RDW and Zoo matchups). Grixis Control the real deal. Aggro Loam and Combo Loam rest in the grey area between control, combo and midrange.
While this doesn't cover -everything- people are playing (various second-rate combo decks, tribal aggro strats, reanimation and graveyard strats ect), I think it lines up all of the 'major players' quite nicely.
With that said, if I were to play in a PT tomorrow and I wanted the best chances at winning I would sleeve up either Aggro Loam or Jund as they're very well positioned against a blind meta (even though their combo matchups are both very poor).
Most zoo decks (which you're playing an underpowered build of) have started leaning on Thalia as their primary two-drop as it has such good game against control and combo decks.
edit: Here is a link to the Zoo sub-forum.
Really, we're playing "Jund" in a lot of ways.. the core of our deck (especially early game) plays out a lot like theirs but we aren't slowed down by CIPT lands. We can easily go over the top of their midrange by locking their creatures out with a well-timed assault assuming that you can IoK their pulse.
Our real trump card is Faithless Looting. It allows us to sculpt our hand in a way they can not.. so we're virtually running extra Lili's, extra GQ's, extra goyfs, extra bobs. You see what I'm getting at.
To get back on the actual strategy against Jund, I've found it very important to control their pulses. Most lists only run 3, so if you can bait one out on a Lili or a Goyf before they recognize you're playing Loam, you have a reasonable chance of not seeing another in the early turns.
To me, it feels like we're all but set maindeck to deal with them. Fulminator Mage is a champ!
Oh, and on a final note.. win your die roll.