https://www.mtgsalvation.com/articles/49777-the-end-of-an-era
Over the past few years, MTGSalvation has become very much my home and most of that is due to the community like the Modern community. It has been an honor and a privilege to talk magic, modern ban list philosophy even with the chaos that can ensue and even more the deck brewing and philosophy with you all. On behalf of the staff past and present thank you all so much for helping us create this wonderful community.
But Im not just getting sappy in this post, there is more.
As Feyd mentioned in the article, we are working on a new home for anyone that wishes to follow us on that journey. It is still very much a work in progress, but our goal is to make our new home even more of a community site than what we have now. Beyond that, I can't say much just yet, but as we get closer I'll keep everyone informed in this thread.
If you have any questions or better yet, have any input on things you would like to see then please feel free to post in this thread and we will respond to the best of our abilities.
Ulka
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Apr 24, 20195
izzetmage posted a message on [WAR] War of the Spark Previews: Modern DiscussionA bit late for my usual reviews, but this was pretty interesting to write up.Posted in: Modern
5
Blast Zone
4
Finale of Promise
Finale of Devastation
3
Narset, Parter of Veils
Liliana's Triumph
Dovin's Veto
Teferi, Time Raveler
Ashiok, Dream Render
Karn, the Great Creator
2
Contentious Plan
Finale of Revelation
Bolas's Citadel
Dreadhorde Arcanist
Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin
Angrath's Rampage
Domri, Anarch of Bolas
Neoform
Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
Emergence Zone
1
The rest
Opinions on specific cards:
- Tomik, Distinguished Advokist: much better in Legacy where Lands is a deck.
- Finale of Revelation: this thing has "untap five lands" on it so some combo deck is gonna use it. If you've ramped up to six basic lands, you can go Heartbeat of Spring -> Early Harvest -> Finale for 13 (or transmute Muddle the Mixture and Finale for 10) and untap five lands. Although if you had six lands, wouldn't it be easier to cast Primeval Titan?
- Narset, Parter of Veils: combos with Day's Undoing, but fine just hating on opposing cantrip-heavy decks without resorting to combos. She replaces herself with her -2, though that puts her in Bolt range.
- Narset's Reversal: Returning a Grapeshot to hand means you can cast it again, but unlike Remand or Unsubstantiate, this doesn't get discounted by Baral, Chief of Compliance. Also, Remand loots with Baral, and Unsubstantiate can get rid of pesky hatebears.
- Wall of Runes: if anyone cares about the Defender combo deck (Staff of Domination + Overgrown Battlement/Axebane Guardian and enough defenders), this adds a body to the count and scrys 1.
- Bolas's Citadel: the hard part is getting lands out of the way. It's not really a one card combo since you need to gain life (which means either Aetherflux Reservoir or having a deck full of life gain cards).
- Bolt Bend: Not as good as Stubborn Denial since you can't Bolt Bend an attempt by your opponent to combo off, doesn't stop board wipes, and does nothing against spot removal if you're the only one with creatures on the board. Ricochet Trap gets played in cascade Living End only because they can't play spells with CMC < 3.
- Dreadhorde Arcanist: overrated, I don't have high hopes when it's an attack trigger for CA (Glint-Sleeve Siphoner). I think it's neat that you can Become Immense it, then have it copy the BI on attack though.
- Finale of Promise: easy 2-for-1, triggers Arclight Phoenix/Thing in the Ice/prowess, casts Living End...seems like a pretty strong spell. Could replace Snapcaster Mage in Phoenix.
- Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin: another Goblin Rabblemaster/Legion Warboss-style card to put in your SB against combo/control, or as a finisher for Blood Moon lock decks.
- Arboreal Grazer: an option for Amulet. I don't think it's good as Amulet is more about storing mana for future turns then ramping immediately. This is reflected in their choice of Coalition Relic over Explore - T3 Relic, charge counter leads to T4 remove counter, play untapped land, tap everything for 6 mana, whereas you can only get to 5 if you had Explore instead of Relic. Likewise, if you end turn 2 with Sakura-Tribe Scout, Amulet and 2 lands in play, you can play double bounceland next turn for 6 mana. This sequence isn't possible if you end turn 2 with Grazer, Amulet and 3 lands (having spent the extra land drop on turn 2 because Grazer forces you to) instead.
- Finale of Devastation: fixed GSZ. Good for assembling creature combos, whether it's Devoted Druid + Vizier of Remedies or Heritage Druid + Nettle Sentinel, and finding finishers once you've got your combo.
- Domri, Anarch of Bolas: it's +1/+0 for a net 2 mana, seems below the curve. Also lets Narnam Renegade trade for big creatures.
- Neoform: overrated, I played Beck // Call Elves and the problem was blue mana because Heritage Druid didn't produce it and Simic is a pretty bad color combination (you don't want to touch blue at all, but Beck//Call forces you to, so you sigh and play it anyway until something better comes along). In Devoted Vizier decks, assembling the combo gives you infinite green mana, then what? You don't have blue to Neoform into Duskwatch Recruiter, and you can't Neoform your 2-drops into 2-drops anyway. Neither of these problems exists with Chord of Calling, Eldritch Evolution, or the new Finale of Devastation.
- Teferi, Time Raveler: combos with Possibility Storm/Knowledge Pool, though it's a fine PW just for value without combos. At worst he'll bounce something and cantrip.
- Ashiok, Dream Render: It doesn't affect spells and abilities controlled by you, so unfortunately there's no fun to be had with Field of Ruin or Path to Exile. Nevertheless, it's quite hard to remove since it survives Bolt and isn't a creature. It hates on graveyards too, repeatedly even, so it's not like Nihil Spellbomb where you blow it once and they just Loot next turn to get their engine going again now that your Spellbomb is gone. Ashiok will stop them completely unless they can do everything in one turn.
- Dovin, Hand of Control: My gut feel is that you should just play Damping Sphere over this. Costs less and hates on the same things.
- Saheeli, Sublime Artificer: better in Legacy/Vintage due to cards that they have but we don't (Moxen, Force of Will). Just like the obvious comparison Monastery Mentor, which is a commonly played card there but not in Modern.
- Karn, the Great Creator: playable, but overrated. When Karn does anything at all, it's one of three scenarios: 1) Your opponent is playing an artifact deck, and his static is winning you the game.
- Ugin, the Ineffable: if your deck is full of 2-mana artifacts that cantrip (Elsewhere Flask, Ichor Wellspring, Prophetic Prism, Kaleidostone, Guild Globe), having a 2-mana reducer lets you cycle through it. Semblance Anvil does this at negative CA, and Krark-Clan Ironworks did this before it got banned, so now Ugin gets to join the fun as a super expensive cost reducer. This deck still has the same problem as Bolas's Citadel.
- Blast Zone: Clearly a good card, a little mana-intensive and slow perhaps, but helped by the fact that it's a land and the first counter is free. Tutorable with Primeval Titan, recurrable with Crucible of Worlds/Life from the Loam, can't be hit by Meddling Mage or Kitesail Freebooter...lots of good things about this card.
- Emergence Zone: for combo decks, this threatens a kill if your opponent ever taps out, at the cost of having 2 less mana to work with during that turn. Having less mana means you're more likely to fizzle. There are some other things it enables relating to summoning sickness, like endstep Empty the Warrens and attacking before they have a chance to play sorcery speed board wipes, or endstep Footsteps of the Goryo Griselbrand so you get one attack before Yawgmoth's Bargaining. The problem is, combo decks don't have room for colorless-producing lands, since they need most of their lands to cast cheap colored spells like Serum Visions or Faithless Looting, so this is SB material at best, but you can play other cheap cards in your SB to beat counters/removal such as Dispel or Silence and those reduce the amount of mana you have on the combo turn by 1 instead of 2.
2) You've just searched up and played Mycosynth Lattice, and his static is winning you the game.
3) You've just used him as a colorless Mastermind's Acquisition to get some artifact lock piece against your opponent.
1) depends on what your opponent is playing, 2) costs a lot of mana, and 3) costs a lot of mana too. 4 mana to tutor an artifact in the worst case is not a great rate. There are prison decks that use Whir of Invention to tutor for lock pieces, sure, but those decks are built with cheap artifacts to pay for Whir as well as to keep their hands empty if the lock piece is Ensnaring Bridge.
Most of the PWs are basically enchantments that can be attacked (aren't they all?). Those that have an ability that cantrips (i.e. the blue ones) are better.Card: # of decks on mtgtop8
As always, data includes MTGO 5-0s which are not chosen at random, so take the numbers with a pinch of salt.
Tithe Taker: 4
Benthic Biomancer: 17
Pteramander: 39
Sphinx of Foresight: 0
Cry of the Carnarium: 3
Drill Bit: 0
Pestilent Spirit: 0
Spawn of Mayhem: 4
Electrodominance: 19
Immolation Shaman: 0
Light up the Stage: 69
Rix Maadi Reveler: 1
Skewer the Critics: 108
Growth-Chamber Guardian: 0
Incubation Druid: 0
Rampage of the Clans: 2
Wilderness Reclamation: 6
Absorb: 37
Bedevil: 2
Biomancer's Familiar: 0
Deputy of Detention: 126
Dovin, Grand Arbiter: 0
Emergency Powers: 0
Growth Spiral: 9
Gruul Spellbreaker: 4
Judith, the Scourge Diva: 3
Kaya, Orzhov Usurper: 33
Lavinia, Azorius Renegade: 4
Prime Speaker Vannifar: 8
Rhythm of the Wild: 7
Incubation//Incongruity: 1
It's time again for the quarterly "hits and misses from the previous set", brought to you by yours truly.
The big winners were Skewer the Critics, Deputy of Detention, and Light Up the Stage. Deputy has seen play in the two premier Aether Vial decks (Humans and Spirits), while the red spells have been a godsend for Burn and mono-red Phoenix. While Light up the Stage has seen plenty of play, at GPs the Light decks have been outclassed by their counterparts - Light Burn by traditional Boros and mono-red Phoenix by Izzet Phoenix. Eidolon of the Great Revel punishes opponents for cantripping to find their action; playing Light up the Stage in the same deck is hanging yourself with your own rope. Mono-red Phoenix is less consistent than Izzet Phoenix due to the lack of Serum Visions.
Moving down the list, we have Pteramander and two surprises. Pteramander goes into Izzet Phoenix, combining desirable attributes from Monastery Swiftspear (can be played on turn 1) and Bedlam Reveler (2 mana total for a big beater). Lately, Phoenix has been moving back to Snapcaster Mage and Pyromancer Ascension in the flex slots though.
The two surprises are...Absorb and Kaya, Orzhov Usurper! Despite both cards being released to lukewarm if not negative reception, Absorb has managed to find a way into some UW Control decks as a 1-of, and Kaya has been mainboarded in Esper and Lantern Control. I'm honestly quite surprised at Kaya; Faerie Macabre is not normally a playable card and neither is Isolate, but put them together on a 3-mana card that lets you use both effects more than once and...they are? Anyway, Ashiok from War of the Spark follows the same template (2 repeatable hate effects on a 3 mana walker), so if you want to look like a genius and/or speculate on cards, there's your pick.
Digging a bit deeper, we've got some good news and bad news. The good news is that Ravnica Allegiance spawned multiple new deck archetypes. Well done! The bad news is they could charitably be called tier 3. Nevertheless, it's instructive to look at these decks and find out why they're stuck in that rut.
Electrodominance: the shell for this deck is Electrodominance/As Foretold + Living End/Ancestral Vision. Casting Living End or Ancestral Vision gives you a huge amount of resources and, in Living End's case, can be enough to win the game shortly.
Where did it go wrong? The devil is in the details. You need to play cyclers to revive with Living End, and as a result you can't play actual cantrips with card selection, like Serum Visions. Secondly, Faithless Looting decks are pretty popular, and Living End is two-sided. They can play one creature to pressure you while discarding a few more to Looting so that they've still got a board if Living End hits.
Prime Speaker Vannifar: this Pod variant brought a lot of attention to itself (they always do - remember Evolutionary Leap and Eldritch Evolution?), along with a spike in Scryb Ranger's price. It had the same Bolt-proofness as Sai, Master Thopterist, but for a 4-drop meant for Modern play, it damn well have.
Where did it go wrong? Vannifar decks are a lot like Bubble Hulk decks:
1) you need to memorize a long sequence of tutor targets to search up
2) those targets are kind of bad, and you wouldn't play them in your deck if not for the fact that you need them for the kill
3) if any of those tutor targets is anywhere but in your library, tough titty. Sometimes if you draw one of the pieces you can hardcast it and combo off anyway. Other times that piece costs 5 or 6 mana.
And that 4 toughness? With the continued dominance of Phoenix, decks (including Phoenix itself) have been turning to Flame Slash to get rid of Thing in the Ice and Crackling Drake. Suddenly that 4 toughness doesn't seem so invincible.
The key lesson from Electrodominance and Vannifar is that the refrain "you win as soon as you resolve X/untap with X" is often not true on closer inspection. There's usually some kind of additional setup needed, like having certain cards in the graveyard or library, and that costs you percentage points.
Growth Spiral, Wilderness Reclamation: the terrors of BO1 Standard made it to Modern, where they continue to... make matches go to time
. The deck plays out quite similarly to blue Scapeshift: you play a bunch of ramp so you can Cryptic Command on turn 3 and feed your eventual wincon, or Remand to stall them without going down on cards. It even has a tutor (Mystical Teachings) to match Bring to Light.
Wilderness Reclamation in Modern has the leg up against other midrange/control decks; the high density of 4-CMC cards (and Mystical Teachings' flashback) means you'll out-topdeck them every time, and all that ramp allows you to out-mana them every time.
Where did it go wrong? Well, aggro decks. Especially that pesky Burn which got another Bolt to add to its arsenal. The comparison to blue Scapeshift is apt as it traditionally has not been a good choice in an aggro-heavy meta.
As for flops, Humans is still sticking to Gaddock Teeg over Lavinia, Azorius Renegade in their SBs. Being a Human isn't all that matters (just ask Deputy of Detention). And there can be no bigger flop than Sphinx of Foresight, a card which posed us the question, "Would you play Mystic Speculation if it cost 0 mana?" And the answer was no, because scrying 3 doesn't make up for the fact that you're effectively 1 card down. -
Apr 11, 2019
1
serenechaos posted a message on [WAR Spoilers] Keanu Reeves, Dinosaur CowboyKeanu, because it's NEOform....yeah it's a real stretch but Monogreen Pitch World just doesn't have the same ring.Posted in: Deck Creation (Modern)
Basic idea is clear, it's an Eldritch Evolution deck with 4 extra copies of Evolution. But Neoform being 2cmc inspires me to try to make the deck run as fast as possible. So you want a same-turn kill from Griselbrand-->Shoals-->second Rider+Neoform/Evolution into Borborygmos and dump your lands.
Zacama is carefully chosen based on Griselbrand math. +9 life from starting is two more activations. By the time higher cmcs offer more value, you've drawn your whole deck anyway (minus 3 cards). This is extremely convenient, because it also means Zacama can be Evolutioned from Rider, and either Neoformed or Evolutioned from Griselbrand/Borborygmos.
Summoner's Pact is Riders 5-8 so that we have full redundancy of both combo pieces; and fetches Zacama for Shoal.
Summoning Trap provides protection at one of two vulnerable points in the combo: casting Rider, and casting Neoform. Removal cannot stop the combo since we get to hold priority once Rider is out, and then sacrifice it as part of the cost of the spell. Removal on Griselbrand or Borborygmos can be troublesome, but we can finish their parts in the combo at instant speed in response. If Neoform is countered, you're in trouble but if Rider is countered you at least have the chance to back it up by cheating a free fatty into play.
I don't like the land setup; fetches and shocks affect Griselbrand math and it's difficult to balance the numbers between Borborygmos and so many pitch cards. Simian Spirit Guide feels iffy. He only works with Evolution or Manamorphose, but a fast mana effect is needed to go off Turn 1 or 2, or else it isn't possible to play the second Neoform. I may possibly go to 3 SSG. Another option is adding some number of Fire-lit Thickets to provide a filter. -
Mar 18, 201910
Ulka posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)After some deliberation, we have deemed that the discussion here in the state of modern has been too volatile recently. We here at Mtgsalvation pride ourselves on being a welcoming and civil community for the discussion of Magic the Gathering. While we understand from time to time conversations can get heated, flaming and trolling behaviors are unacceptable and will not be tolerated. In this thread, we have seen some of the worst of this and due to that we are taking stricter action.Posted in: Modern Archives
When the thread is unlocked if people continue to flame and troll, we will begin suspensions immediately.
This is the last warning.
Ulka and the Moderating Team -
Mar 18, 20199
CavalryWolfPack posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)After dishing out an innumerable number of infractions and warnings, I'm locking this thread for a few days so every can cool off a bit. Come back in a few days when it's reopened to resume discussion.Posted in: Modern Archives -
Jan 28, 20191
TomCourtenay posted a message on Jeskai ControlPosted in: ControlQuote from ktkenshinx »Quote from rickster_ »Tron crushes control. The one time that I did better than 50% vs tron was when I was playing UW with 4x spreading seas, 4x field of ruin, 1x ghost quarter and 2x gideon of the trials. You either suck up the loss to tron or play a different deck.
Against mill, people were playing one eldrazi in the sideboard.
Quote from TomCourtenay »How do you guys manage the Tron matchup ? I have 3 Field of Ruin in the mainboard as well as 2 Negate, 1 Wear // Tear and 2 Stony Silence in the sideboard. I'm not sure how to sideboard in this matchup : do you think Vendilion Clique would be good ? How about Dispel also (I don't think it would do much). I guess it's all about speed, so I'm tempted to keep the burn spells to race them.
I can attest that Tron is a horrible matchup for Jeskai. In the 2018 MWP analysis I posted (https://mtgmodernmetrics.wordpress.com/2019/01/12/2018-top-deck-performance-review/), I found Gx Tron to be heavily favored against Jeskai Control with an overall MWP of 28.7% and a 95% confidence interval on that MWP of 19.2%-38.2%. The sample size for that was 87 games at the GP and SCG Open levels. It's such a bad matchup that, as rick attests, I might not even try to waste slots at improving it too much. Just let it suck and lean on your better matchups.
Thanks ktkenshinx : that's a net matrix on the metrics web site. Thanks for a valuable input in there ! -
Jan 21, 20194
Shmanka posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)These last 12 hours of Wizards communication is arguably some of the best we have had in the last 3 to 4 years.Posted in: Modern Archives
If Wizards keeps these channels open and consistent, while most of the community strikes when they see wrong and promotes when they see good, we can finally come to terms on more issues than simple format health. -
Jan 21, 20194
Pokken posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 21/01/2019)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from gkourou »The Aaron forsythe quote means we are probably having no unbans during 2019.
Actually if it follows the pattern last time Aaron said something dumb about a card it'll be unbanned next announcement
re: Sword of the meek (making lantern control oppressive since never) -
Jan 10, 20192
cfusionpm posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from Kathal »Some interesting things, sadly he didn't add the most important one: What was the average MVP of the recorded decks? THAT would be super interesting, since you already have a relative decent data set.
Deck Wins Losses MWP
Dredge 36 25 59.02%
Burn 44 37 54.32%
HS Affinity 65 55 54.17%
Jund 31 27 53.45%
Tron 114 101 53.02%
UR Phoenix 65 59 52.42%
KCI 58 55 51.33%
Infect 35 35 50.00%
UW Control 22 23 48.89%
Spirits 167 176 48.69%
GDS 33 43 43.42%
Humans 30 40 42.86%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1emdErSjqy6Ct5Qi5CWXXcusiLD2jAl2bU13qjHITOsA/edit?usp=sharing -
Jan 7, 2019
2
BlueTronFTW posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 26/11/2018)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from 13055 »Quote from BlueTronFTW »Mengucci has hated modern for years for the same reason that many pros dislike it - they always want a best deck, and modern basically never has a best deck due to the size of the field. I like this because its ultimately fair - everyone's deck has a major weakness or two and we all have the chance of running into that rough matchup on a given weekend.
Which is what I find supremely ironic about all the hate KCI is getting from Pros - it is literally what they are constantly asking for! A clear best deck that takes skill to pilot. I don't know what would make Pros happy with Modern at the point.
I've played enough Mtg and League of Legends to know this: skill is just something talked about for bragging purposes. "Oh, not only did I win but it was complex and tough so I'm even more awesome." That's why people who lose to me on burn occasionally say things like how I only won because I didn't have to think. Well duh, dude. Why intentionally make something harder if the goal is to win? - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
1
Speaking of which, I can figure out a few of the T8 lists based on Tweets, but not all. What's the breakdown?
1
Not sure off the top of my head. It was easier to audit Nyzzeh's predictions because they are less active in these threads unless discussing ban stuff; fewer posts to check.
I don't include unban predictions in that record because I have no idea about the logic which governs unbans. I think bans are much more predictable; unbans seem to happen in both unstable and stable metagames whenever Wizards wants.
Not too much, actually. More Arena than anything. But I'm always game to rev up the MTGO Cheeri0s list again!
1
MCQ Results from yesterday: https://twitter.com/ChannelFireball/status/1144808075553120263
Top 64
Hogaak: 18
Izzet Phoenix: 10
Humans: 6
E-Tron: 4
Burn: 3
Mono R Phoenix: 3
Jund: 2
Counters Company: 2
Jeskai Saheeli: 2
Affinity: 2
Other: 12
T8:
1. Hogaak Bridge
2. Orzhov Eldrazi Taxes
3. Hogaak Bridge
4. E-Tron
5. Esper Mentor
6. Izzet Phoenix
7. Izzet Phoenix
8. Thopter Sword
5
You have predicted and/or called for bans/nerfs on Tron cards, ETemple, Chalice, Past in Flames, Traverse the Ulvenwald, Dredge, and now Hogaak Bridge. That's one hit in Dredge, five misses (Tron cards, Temple, Chalice, PiF, Traverse), and one ommision (no KCI). If Hogaak gets banned, you'll be 2 for 7 or 2 for 8, depending on how you score. This is exactly what I was referring to when I talk about throwing darts at a board. If you throw enough, you are bound to hit and then give acclaim to predictive skills when the record clearly shows a less flattering hit rate.
Again, Hogaak may be capital B Busted. It may be bannable. But that doesn't mean we change proven ban prediction methods because the hysteria and alarm was right one time in 10+.
2
As other users have noted in the swirl of ban talk around Hogaak, none of this should change our ban method. Waiting for more data to validate a ban theory has proven a significantly more reliable and accurate method of predicting bans and brokenness than the knee-jerk responses we typically see. We should not change that method in the future regardless of how Hogaak turns out.
1
I'm fine with allegations that Wizards doesn't test new cards in Standard-legal sets for Modern. They've literally said that in Play Design articles. But the allegation that Wizards "does not think at all about other formats" with the citation of the "London Mulligan" is patently incorrect. They literally tested the rule at a Modern MC prior to releasing it, and explicitly cited Modern results in evaluating it. I don't know how much more they could have realistically acknowledged Modern in that rollout.
1
Speaking from my own definition of ban mania, I want to be clear that not all calls for bans are ban mania. As a term, "ban mania" specifically refers to framing an issue that is fundamentally about the metagame, format, cards, decks, strategy, etc. as a ban policy issue, doing so with minimal or no evidence, and/or doing so out of dialogue with known Wizards ban criteria/decisions. This encompasses most of the ban calls we have seen aimed at decks since 2017: GDS, E-Tron, CoCo, Storm, Humans, Gx Tron, UWx, Dredge, Bridgevine, etc. all come to mind. Even KCI ban talk was initially ban mania because it lacked evidence for many months. But once there was significant evidence against KCI, in the form of disproportionate T8 performance and MWP stats, the initial ban mania became just a ban argument. Ban arguments are okay. Ban arguments can, in fact, be positive if driven by reasonable arguments and framed as cases or conversations. As long as you're engaged in that dialogue, it can be healthy and interesting to discuss bans.
I don't know your local scene or what venue you play in, but I always encourage players to think in terms of what they are likely to face from week to week, not what they are likely to face in a hypothetical major paper tournament. It's easy to get sucked into believing that only the Tier 1 decks of any given time are viable, and we tend to define such decks as those which T8 a GP or SCG Open (maybe; some people are STILL skpetical of these events). For one, it's always surprising just how many decks are in T8 contention. Second, very few of us actually play in these kinds of 15 round events. We are more likely to play in 8-rounders or smaller. I find if players pick for those events in known metagames, they have more success and enjoyment.
3
As I wrote in the Reddit post, the Challenge results are both laughably bad (32% Hogaak Vine = lulz) and relatively isolated. Did Hogaak have an outrageous debut at this single Challenge? Absolutely, and it would be misleading to deny that. But it's just as misleading to oversell the results of a single Challenge. For one, it's a single datapoint on the debut weekend of a deck. There are so many factors that both artificially increase (e.g. players don't know how to play against it, SB decisions, hype, etc.) and decrease (card availability, untuned decks, pilots don't know tricks with the deck, etc.) prevalence in such a single datapoint. Given these limitations, it's hard to draw a meaningful conclusion. Second, it's not even a major paper event. It's "just" an MTGO Challenge, which we have routinely (and rightfully) questioned as representative of the metagame on any given weekend. Significant paper results or repeat online results are needed to really figure out where the deck stands in the metagame.
Re: ban decisions
Wizards has issued one emergency ban in over a decade (Felidar), which was more of an oversight acknowledgement than a response to a pattern of troubling results. There is no way we see emergency ban action based on a single Challenge. Wizards has repeatedly shown, despite the blaring ban mania in online communities, that they will wait for sustained results before acting on a ban.
I encourage community members to stick to the proven method of ban analysis: waiting for more data and taking a long, conservative view of the format. Recognize the metagame's ability to adapt and acknowledge that most decks have more weaknesses than we think. This method has produced consistent predictions of changes and no changes for years now. Even if Hogaak Vine is ultimately bannable, that does not mean we throw out the proven, conservative method and revert to a ban mania mindframe. If you throw enough darts at a board, eventually you'll get a bullseye even if your technique is horrible. That doesn't mean we look at the bullseye and say "NAILED IT" with all of our bad technique throws. We stick with the technique that works.
1
I've seen these kinds of comments and assessments for literal years. A recent comparison was last summer when numerous authors, players, and posters in the older version of this thread (including players who rarely ever raise ban alarm) brought up the same fears about Bridgevine. Like basically every episode of ban fear and ban mania before, that too passed with no significant metagame impact and, obviously, no banning. The overwhelming majority of such fears don't pan out because Modern is a remarkably robust and adaptive format. Similarly, there is significant incentive for authors, commenters, streamers, pros, and even average community members to hype up these kinds of decks for clicks, views, upvotes, reputation, accolades, etc. Don't buy into this hype. Wait for results and trust that the overwhelming majority of such fears will be unfounded, the deck in question actually isn't that good/broken, and the metagame will adjust to most emerging strategies.
4
I really don't understand the negative reception to MH. It feels like many of the people who are disappointed set their own expectations and standards based on personal preferences, and then when Wizards failed to meet those subjective, personal, impossible expectations, they were disappointed/frustrated. Can people who are unhappy with MH actually cite a Wizards pitch, advertisement, promise, or claim that justified expectations of stuff like Sinkhole at uncommon?
From what I've found, here was the most definitive promise Wizards made about MH: https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/news/announcing-modern-horizons-2019-02-28
"Powerful new options mixed with flavorful updates for favorite characters means Modern Horizons is going to be a wild ride. The set is full of cards that build up favorite Modern strategies, create new ones, and bring plenty of flavor to matches where Modern cards are legal."
Breaking this promise down, I'd identify five distinct expectations we should have:
1. "Powerful new options"
2. "Flavorful updates for favorite characters"
3. "Cards that build up favorite Modern strategies"
4. Cards that "create new ones"
5. Cards that "bring plenty of flavor to matches where Modern cards are legal
Three of these have unquestionably been met: 1, 2, and 5. Two of those objectives are flavor-based, not even power-based, and #1 has plenty of cards that fit the mold. 3 and 5 remain to be seen. I will remind everyone that even pros and pundits are notoriously inconsistent at card evaluation. Almost everyone missed the impact of stuff like Narset in non-rotating formats. Literally every author I've read missed Arclight Phoenix as a Tier 1 Modern enabler.
If someone can point me towards a different promise or advertisement by Wizards that promised something else/more, I'd love to read it. But most people who are disappointed with MH are not citing a claim that was unmet.