I've been playing different kinds of goblin decks since I started in modern last year, and I wanted to try out a new token brew. The problem these days in modern seems to be the amount of spot removal in the tier decks with fatal push, path and bolt all viable options. Even though we are piloting a goblin deck, it still matters if the opponent removes a couple of our hardest hitting goblins, and thus making it harder to get through with enough damage, before a midrange/control/kombo deck takes off. The quick hasty "turn 3 goblins" are rarely that anymore besides in goldfishing against a non-interactive opponent. Of course it's still a awesome deck, and I love to play with the 8 whackers. But I wanted to try something new.
So I was thinking, what if we try to sacrifice a little of the speed, for more resiliance to removal, making us able to power through blockers and removal in the mid game. Please tell me what you think about this list:
Creatures:
4 Goblin Guide
4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Legion Loyalist
3 Mogg War Marshall
As you can see the plan is to jam a lot of goblins and make them attack for big numbers with the shared animosity (and back up plan hall of triumph). And after a board wipe or a lot of removal or trading with blockers we can still top deck a dragon fodder or hordeling outburst and go again for the last amount of damage needed.
Another thing I would like your take on is Blood Moon in the mainboard. Alot of the tier 1 decks in the current meta have greedy mana bases, and I was thinking 2-3 blood moons would almost give a auto win in game 1 against them. Since the speed of this deck is a bit lower than other goblin decks, I think Blood Moon might be worth it.
Please tell me what you think
Going as wide as possible is the way I have had the most success for sure, but when you do that you need your bushwhackers imo, you're not going to draw shared animosity every time, and you're certainly not going to still have it in your hand by the time you hit 3 mana every time. Even when you do, it's a far better card when you have more haste in your deck.
You're not going to grind anyone out with goblins, you're basically just asking 'do you have the sweeper?' It's pretty hard for decks to interact with you on a 1 for 1 basis and still get on the board fast enough to make the interaction relevant if you have the bushwhackers in there. You can cast a marshal/fodder/command and then just start throwing bushwhackers into their blockers until they're in grenade range.
BTW I still think it's worth reflecting on the land counts people are using. 19 lands is aiming to reduce dead draws later in the game, but why are you playing a hyper aggressive deck with the intent of going long? I'd prefer to maximise my chances of hitting my first 3 land drops, casting 5-6 spells and deciding the game one way or the other by turn 4 at the latest. None of the lists I've seen can keep up on a grindier axis, so just remove that from the equation. If they can stem the bleeding in time, you lose no matter how well you're topdecking on turn 5, so reduce their chance of doing so instead. The best chance to hit 3 or 4 lands and 5 or 6 spells by turn 3 is 23 land. The increased number of hands you have to throw back for having > 4 lands is counteracted by the decreased number of hands you have to throw back for having < 2 lands. Which reminds me, I think it's incredibly greedy to keep 1 landers in a 19 land deck that wants to swarm the board quickly, unless you're on the draw AND a mulligan.
It's probably possible to make a grindy midgame goblins deck but I don't really know what it would look like. I think blood moon main is definitely viable in either deck though. Getting a big advantage on the board and then shutting off their ability to respond will get you wins. Even if they have the ability to remove it they're not interacting with your mob for up to a full turn, and that's a good way to spend 3 mana and a card in what is basically the goblin late game. Again though, you're running into the 19 land issue. Your chance of having a blood moon and the lands to cast it on turn 3 is just shy of 29%, and casting it on turn 4 is pretty likely to be too late. 19 lands means you either mulligan or miss your third land drop over 40% of the time (honestly it's probably more than 60% if you really count mulligans, I'll figure it out later), which is fine if your deck runs properly on 2 mana or wants to go longer anyway. None of the lists I've seen do that.
This seems to be going ok. Had smugglers copter in place of liliana but it wasn't working. Tokens seem great right now, even though this isn't really a heavy token build. Doesn't crutch too heavily on any one resource, so you're dodging most hate, barring things no one plays. Really nice in a format full of monstrous ground pounders and spot removal for them.
I enjoyed this, and largely agree with it, except for the aether vial comments. You get a net return on your one mana tempo investment. Transforming mana into other resources (mainly cards or card selection) can definitely cause issues though, especially at sorcery speed. Of course, as you mentioned repeatedly, it can often be worth it, but a lot of modern combo ideas I see posted run into the extreme end of the issue. They can get pretty reliable turn four kills, but only if they do nothing until then, not even hold up permission. That's going to be a problem.
I could see him maybe filling a niche in a control deck that runs cheap looting effects, but I'm not sure if that deck exists, or if it even can. Or if it would run a card that is basically a 1/1 for 3 on its own.
If it did, this could potentially be quite strong in control mirrors, as it allows you to generate CA much earlier than sphinxes revelation, meaning you're hitting more land drops and more gas. That in turn means they may never resolve a revelation. Revelation is big, splashy, and costs a TON of mana, which means it should never really resolve against a deck with a reasonable permission suite that has been outdrawing you, unless they do something silly.
I don't think it's very likely, but this game is notoriously hard to predict. I was chuckling at an old thread earlier where the consensus was that 75 bucks was about the right price to preorder a playset of Jace, the Mind Sculptor, maybe a little high.
Coalition relic is the only artifact source I can think of that will let you wildfire on turn 4 by itself, rather than spending every turn ramping. If you're intending to wildfire later than turn 4, even on the play, I hope you have a lot of other ways to interact.
I think the drawback of shuffling lands back into your deck with fetches after you bottom them with lead the stampede is going to outweigh the bonus from thinning, mathematically speaking. Of course that only matters if lead the stampede is not enough to just win.
One of the essential things about the dies to removal argument is that it becomes more valid if the card dies to a wide variety of removal. It becomes more valid still if it costs significantly more to play than it does to remove.
Mono green stompy. T2 superion into turn 3 deus is pretty good, but nowhere near as much fun as digging for eternal witness with lead the stampede so you can recur it.
I think my favourite thing about goblins is that it's so hard for creature decks to play against. They know they have to put pressure on you with attacks or you'll swarm them out, but they know you can crack back for unpredictable amounts. Foundry street denizen and a couple of goblin tokens looks like 3 1/1s, but could be representing 15 damage if you're holding another token maker and a bushwhacker.
Just there for auriok champion really, since it basically kills us. Could theoretically use it against etched too, but that seems pretty bad. Swapped the tormods crypts back to relic of progenitus btw, it's just too good against too many things, but other than that I figure there isn't much point trying to interact with their plan unless it impacts on you really badly in the first 3 turns. Better off siding in hate for their hate, much like a combo deck. The possible exception is combo decks that can win reliably on turn 4 if you don't interact, because then they can beat you on the play.
In fact, even if they can do something that keeps you off your 'plan' (turn red dudes sideways) in the first 3 turns, if it's not an ongoing effect, you probably don't even need to worry about it unless they can back it up with very fast pressure. You can beat turn 3 breached emrakul if they durdle around afterwards. Likewise triple pyroclasm.
Just went 3-1 in a daily with the list I posted up there, losing in straight games to ad nauseum. Game 1 I mull to a slow 5, game 2 I'm on the play and he has no disruption so the only way he can win is by going off turn 3, which he promptly does. Beat nykwave, infect, and norin.
The norin deck is a real pain though. Opponent was up 1-0 but low on time, conceded when it became obvious I had the second game and he wouldn't have time to play out the third.
Punting, as I percieve it is either making a misplay or taking an unecceasry risk while playing in a position where the right play could lead to maybe winning or regaining control of the game. Correct me if I'm wrong about this.
I don't usually refer to punting as misreading the probabilities (and taking an unnecessary risk or whatever else that leads to), but misplaying around known information, turning a win or very probable win into a loss. You're right though, it's used both ways.
Going as wide as possible is the way I have had the most success for sure, but when you do that you need your bushwhackers imo, you're not going to draw shared animosity every time, and you're certainly not going to still have it in your hand by the time you hit 3 mana every time. Even when you do, it's a far better card when you have more haste in your deck.
You're not going to grind anyone out with goblins, you're basically just asking 'do you have the sweeper?' It's pretty hard for decks to interact with you on a 1 for 1 basis and still get on the board fast enough to make the interaction relevant if you have the bushwhackers in there. You can cast a marshal/fodder/command and then just start throwing bushwhackers into their blockers until they're in grenade range.
BTW I still think it's worth reflecting on the land counts people are using. 19 lands is aiming to reduce dead draws later in the game, but why are you playing a hyper aggressive deck with the intent of going long? I'd prefer to maximise my chances of hitting my first 3 land drops, casting 5-6 spells and deciding the game one way or the other by turn 4 at the latest. None of the lists I've seen can keep up on a grindier axis, so just remove that from the equation. If they can stem the bleeding in time, you lose no matter how well you're topdecking on turn 5, so reduce their chance of doing so instead. The best chance to hit 3 or 4 lands and 5 or 6 spells by turn 3 is 23 land. The increased number of hands you have to throw back for having > 4 lands is counteracted by the decreased number of hands you have to throw back for having < 2 lands. Which reminds me, I think it's incredibly greedy to keep 1 landers in a 19 land deck that wants to swarm the board quickly, unless you're on the draw AND a mulligan.
It's probably possible to make a grindy midgame goblins deck but I don't really know what it would look like. I think blood moon main is definitely viable in either deck though. Getting a big advantage on the board and then shutting off their ability to respond will get you wins. Even if they have the ability to remove it they're not interacting with your mob for up to a full turn, and that's a good way to spend 3 mana and a card in what is basically the goblin late game. Again though, you're running into the 19 land issue. Your chance of having a blood moon and the lands to cast it on turn 3 is just shy of 29%, and casting it on turn 4 is pretty likely to be too late. 19 lands means you either mulligan or miss your third land drop over 40% of the time (honestly it's probably more than 60% if you really count mulligans, I'll figure it out later), which is fine if your deck runs properly on 2 mana or wants to go longer anyway. None of the lists I've seen do that.
Congregate + CoCo is a nice way to get your vizier+druid on the board.
// 1 Creature
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
// 8 Enchantment
4 Bitterblossom
4 Myth Realized
// 4 Instant
4 Fatal Push
// 25 Land
2 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
4 Marsh Flats
1 Island
3 Swamp
3 Plains
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Watery Grave
4 Godless Shrine
4 Shambling Vent
3 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
4 Liliana of the Veil
// 15 Sorcery
4 Polymorph
4 Lingering Souls
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Painful Truths
If it did, this could potentially be quite strong in control mirrors, as it allows you to generate CA much earlier than sphinxes revelation, meaning you're hitting more land drops and more gas. That in turn means they may never resolve a revelation. Revelation is big, splashy, and costs a TON of mana, which means it should never really resolve against a deck with a reasonable permission suite that has been outdrawing you, unless they do something silly.
I don't think it's very likely, but this game is notoriously hard to predict. I was chuckling at an old thread earlier where the consensus was that 75 bucks was about the right price to preorder a playset of Jace, the Mind Sculptor, maybe a little high.
4 Joraga Treespeaker
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Devoted Druid
4 Myr Superion
4 Eternal Witness
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Obstinate Baloth
4 Deus of Calamity
1 Thragtusk
4 Lead the Stampede
Land:
23 Forest
Cost $17.92
In fact, even if they can do something that keeps you off your 'plan' (turn red dudes sideways) in the first 3 turns, if it's not an ongoing effect, you probably don't even need to worry about it unless they can back it up with very fast pressure. You can beat turn 3 breached emrakul if they durdle around afterwards. Likewise triple pyroclasm.
The norin deck is a real pain though. Opponent was up 1-0 but low on time, conceded when it became obvious I had the second game and he wouldn't have time to play out the third.
I don't usually refer to punting as misreading the probabilities (and taking an unnecessary risk or whatever else that leads to), but misplaying around known information, turning a win or very probable win into a loss. You're right though, it's used both ways.