In the process of writing an article, so I won't spoil details about much, I believe the decks will be posted on MTGTop8 soon and be looking forward to giving those tips in the very near future.
Look, I'm more than willing to admit that Twin would force the interaction back in the metagame. There is almost no denying it if you are familiar with play patterns from back then till now. The problem is, I feel it has a sense of being degenerate in the way it forces that level of interaction. Instead of two ships passing in the night, Twin is the Titanic colliding with the Ice Berg. That's a completely different set of problems Modern would then need to deal with. Which is most likely why the metagame back then were simply 5 or so tier 1 decks, because nothing else would compete, and rogue strategies would need to get lucky and slice out the pie with pairings and dice rolls.
After years of playing this format, I personally view Splinter Twin as the Fence Post for the Modern banned list, you have to be at least that problematic to join the rest of the crew to only see daylight in No Banned List Modern.
That UB Delver vs Death and Taxes inspired me to fire up the Insectile Boy. Looked so awesome.
It honestly makes me wonder why we can't just have straight UB Death's Shadow in Modern. I'm not too certain what the red is adding lately in the format
"We also look for decks that hold a large enough percentage of the competitive field to reduce the diversity of the format. In the interest of competitive diversity, Splinter Twin is banned from Modern." - Wizards, January 18th, Banned and Restricted Announcement.
Where is humans at at this point in comparison?
Look, Wizards isn't giving us Twin back. I guarantee they will ban Aether Vial before anything else, and make changes to the banned list that reflect old Extended.
I completely understand that these metagame percentages vs their win ratio will be skewed for the entire event simply based on how Team Constructed works. What I would like to point out though, is that every single one of these decks submitted, essentially have triple the approval rating from the Pro Community, whether directly influencing single card choices, or simply relying passively on your teammates discretion. Each player is trusting the other player and using that as a strength or necessity, and not as a fault.
I think if wizards was banning some land it would be Ancient Ziggurat, not a card that they just printed in a standard set that nearly every single person playing right now probably has. Ziggurat hasn't seen a printing since ancient times so it's banning would be hardly a foot note to most players. Not to mention not a lot of decks actually run it.
Look, I love speculation and analysis about what should and could not be banned. Let's get real for a minute here. The card that would be targeted is none other than Aether Vial. It was banned in Old Extended for the exact same reasons most people are complaining about currently when it comes to Cavern of Souls. "I can't counter it", "Way too much tempo" etc etc.
Humans is the only successful tribal deck because of it's natural claim to have the best 1 drops in the format. Champion of the Parish is better than Wild Nacatl, Delver of Secrets, and Goblin Guide. That's not an understatement about Modern either, if you took Champion of the Parish, and changed the creature type to say - Merfolk, we would see a completely different dominant deck abusing Aether Vial.
Wizards makes some really stupid mistakes, but it's not going to be a restrictive multi-color land that has some of the most limited success in constructed for both Modern and Shards of Alara Block.
Hey,
thanks for your input. I just ran Karn Affinity on a small local Tourney and lost the finals. I guess your stuff is well tested and I will not argue about it - though I really enjoyed those games when Baby Karn just steamrolled my opponent from every angle. I guess I'll pick up some Bomat Couriers soon!
For the SB plan, I am totally on your line. Dredge is horrible without Rest in Peace, and I guess there can be slots opened up for a playset RIP.
Greetings
PS: Still no love for Hope of Ghirapur ?! It is Game-changing in my opinion! Please someone, support my favourite 1-of special.
I can definitely understand the appeal for Karn. Specifically during Eldrazi Winter, I ran two Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas in my MAINDECK. Sometimes the format simply calls for the weirdest utilities, yet I don't see how Karn helps against the top decks of the current format. Such as Humans, Tron, Storm, KCI, Burn, and Grixis Death's Shadow. What it does help in the current Metagame could be both Jeskai Control and Hollow One. Yet once again, Etched Champion demands a completely different gameplan from your opponent.
I will definitely try the card again, but it feels dramatically incorrect to have two copies main.
Here are some short notes between my practicing of the deck and the event
Overall 69% win rate on MTGO between both Friendly and Competitive Leagues. In the F2F Won vs Death and Taxes, Death and Taxes GW, Mardu, Tron, Jeskai Control, Infect. Lost vs Mardu, Living End.
Let's talk about Karn; I believe he is very worthy of slots in the sideboard. He dilutes your openers, doesn't help give you resilience (Trust me, Mardu doesn't care about him and that's already a hard matchup) and he doesn't speed up the clock. He gives you abilities in matchups where both Lightning Bolt and Fatal push present themselves but yet not when going wide. So we are talking Abzan & Jund style decks, yet it's obvious 4 Etched Champion help those matchups significantly more. I think it's just a fad to find a utility card to help in flooding situations like Hangarback Walker used to be.
Now let's talk about Bomat Courier; Card overperforms. Straight up. It's either a Ball Lightning when equipped with a Cranial Plating, or simply a miniature Treasure Cruise against Combo & Control decks. It requires on demand removal, and helps with nut draws. Consider it extra copies of Signal Pest 5-8. They go out in the same matchups, and are in your hopeful openers in others. If I were to ever replace this card in the deck, I would go to 6-7 copies between Master of Etherium and Etched Champion.
Spire of Industry is a mainstay, but it's incorrect to run 4 copies. Burn is a bad matchup, and most game states the life loss will matter when you prepare yourself for those grindy game 2's.
You need the Island, not the Mountain. You need to have a method of casting Master of Etherium through Blood Moon and Stony Silence (uploaded image for viewing pleasure) If you don't run Master, it's probably a mistake unless you are hellbent on losing to cards like Pyroclasm.
Speaking of which... It's wrong to run Blood Moon in Affinity.Damping Sphere is our new calling. Shuts off Tron and Amulet Bloom without shutting off Inkmoth Nexus and Blinkmoth Nexus. Hinders Storm and KCI severely.
Running Welding Jar is also probably incorrect. I know this is probably the most controversial situation of them all, but I have found this throughout the event - you want one of two things, the card to be resilient or impactful to race. Welding Jar is definitely resilient, but it's optimal situation is merely against controlling or midrange decks, and most of them pack Stony Silence. Welding Jar is a great game 1 card, but it hinders your effectiveness in the matchups it specifically warrants it's positions for in games 2 and 3.
Graveyard decks have our number on speed dial. I would run possibly 4 Rest in Peace and 1 Grafdigger's Cage in the future in my sideboard. I know I will be running 3 this weekend in the upcoming PPTQ locally. Yet I lost both of my matchups in my main event because I wasn't prepared enough for the graveyard attrition & combo based decks.
That's all I got for now. Any questions feel free to reply.
Those numbers are insanely scary for both Mono G Tron and Humans. I'm unsure, but I feel most of these numbers are correct based off of my experience. Some of these numbers are just dramatically wrong. Look at Storm vs Tron. There is no way, absolutely no way Tron has a near 50/50 matchup. It's not as if they just cast relic of progenitus and Storm Scoops.
Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?
I've seen it mentioned several times on social media that modern is too fast to care about card advantage and card quality is more important. So that's why more fair decks are playing faithless looting (Mardu and now GDS), being down a card doesn't matter as much if it gets you closer to your more impactful cards.
Is there a way to quantify that? What's the actual average kill turn in modern? How many cards does the loser end up with when the game is over?
When I played at GP Toronto, my main event didn't work out as well as I had hoped, but including the main event and side events I went 21-4 playing Death's Shadow Jund (FYI this event was before the unbanning of BBE and Jace)
I decided to take a the best note of Mardu Pyromancer's Success and put two copies of Faithless Looting in my maindeck. Not only was it a Delirium enabler, it allowed me to find potential turn 3 kills faster and more effectively than any other card in the format. When considering the mirror match, it also outperformed binging multiple land drops in favour of removal spells and threats.
Since the unbanning I actually don't think Modern has changed much, way more pet decks, but there is still the cream of the crop trying to efficiently beat you down, but I would love statistics to see if my viewpoint is correct or not!
Considering it's Reid Duke, he probably has a reason to do this!
Yep, the things that he does with that deck are amazing. I know a local Jund player that does pretty well with Jund (even if most Jund players I know have moved on or quit Magic), but it doesn't even come close to Reid. He just is a supernatural person that really puts in the work.
Thanks for checking it out. Not seeing any negative feedback so I'll go live with this tomorrow. Looking ahead to other topics for MTG ModernMetrics, what are people interested in? Here are some ideas I've had or heard, as well as projects I have in various states of completeness:
1. SCG Modern and Legacy Open comparison: top player MWP ceilings/floors
2. Relative performance/success of top pro players in Modern and Standard
3. Calculating matchup percentages from VODs/tournament coverage/observed games
4. Metagame breakdowns
5. Diversity comparisons in different periods of Modern history
6. Data-driven ban/unban analysis
7. Probability of certain decks accomplishing certain things within a set timeframe (e.g. T3 Karn)
Lots of ideas, lots of data to pick through. What are people interested in?
ktkenshinx, I would love if you could do #3. I was about to request something personally as well for an article I am writing. I was also hoping in relations to the Modern format, specifically what win % in the format overall is affected by number of mulligans.
the 'from a performance standpoint' rider is the key to his statement.
let me clarify for you:
modern is probably more skill intensive than standard. (more decks, more cards, more variety, shorter games mean individual decisions matter more in your average game etc. etc.). I have no statistical basis for this, but it seems intuitive based on what we know... so... "probably".
What's important though, and what KTK was saying, is that this doesn't affect relative performance between formats.
I'd argue something completely different from recent pages of discussion. Modern requires a significant amount more work to be effective in the format compared to Standard.
Skill in Magic can be measured in multiple ways, but what I find are two issues that arises frequently; The ability to recognize areas that need improvement, then acting upon to create those improvements. There are hundreds of players I have come across, both intelligent and somewhat so, who have difficulty in acknowledging their own failures. On the other side of the coin, there are people I find who are able to recognize their problems, but recreate them without any signs of improvement towards a solution.
It's why I find the skill argument lacking when comparing formats. It's just deeply layered problem solving.
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Grim Flayer
4 Street Wraith
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
3 Lightning Bolt
3 Faithless Looting
2 Fatal Push
2 Traverse the Ulvenwald
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Dismember
2 Liliana of the Veil
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Forest
1 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
1 Marsh Flats
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Duress
1 Pyroclasm
2 Alpine Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Collective Brutality
2 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Leyline of the Void
In the process of writing an article, so I won't spoil details about much, I believe the decks will be posted on MTGTop8 soon and be looking forward to giving those tips in the very near future.
After years of playing this format, I personally view Splinter Twin as the Fence Post for the Modern banned list, you have to be at least that problematic to join the rest of the crew to only see daylight in No Banned List Modern.
It honestly makes me wonder why we can't just have straight UB Death's Shadow in Modern. I'm not too certain what the red is adding lately in the format
Look, Wizards isn't giving us Twin back. I guarantee they will ban Aether Vial before anything else, and make changes to the banned list that reflect old Extended.
Look, I love speculation and analysis about what should and could not be banned. Let's get real for a minute here. The card that would be targeted is none other than Aether Vial. It was banned in Old Extended for the exact same reasons most people are complaining about currently when it comes to Cavern of Souls. "I can't counter it", "Way too much tempo" etc etc.
Humans is the only successful tribal deck because of it's natural claim to have the best 1 drops in the format. Champion of the Parish is better than Wild Nacatl, Delver of Secrets, and Goblin Guide. That's not an understatement about Modern either, if you took Champion of the Parish, and changed the creature type to say - Merfolk, we would see a completely different dominant deck abusing Aether Vial.
Wizards makes some really stupid mistakes, but it's not going to be a restrictive multi-color land that has some of the most limited success in constructed for both Modern and Shards of Alara Block.
I can definitely understand the appeal for Karn. Specifically during Eldrazi Winter, I ran two Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas in my MAINDECK. Sometimes the format simply calls for the weirdest utilities, yet I don't see how Karn helps against the top decks of the current format. Such as Humans, Tron, Storm, KCI, Burn, and Grixis Death's Shadow. What it does help in the current Metagame could be both Jeskai Control and Hollow One. Yet once again, Etched Champion demands a completely different gameplan from your opponent.
I will definitely try the card again, but it feels dramatically incorrect to have two copies main.
Here is the list I played, and I would run back 73 of the 75.
4 Ornithopter
4 Signal Pest
2 Bomat Courier
4 Vault Skirge
4 Arcbound Ravager
3 Steel Overseer
3 Etched Champion
2 Master of Etherium
4 Springleaf Drum
4 Mox Opal
4 Cranial Plating
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Inkmoth Nexus
2 Glimmervoid
2 Spire of Industry
1 Island
1 Master of Etherium
1 Etched Champion
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Pithing Needle
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Damping Sphere
1 Torpor Orb
2 Rest in Peace
2 Whipflare
2 Ghirapur Aether Grid
Here are some short notes between my practicing of the deck and the event
Overall 69% win rate on MTGO between both Friendly and Competitive Leagues. In the F2F Won vs Death and Taxes, Death and Taxes GW, Mardu, Tron, Jeskai Control, Infect. Lost vs Mardu, Living End.
Let's talk about Karn; I believe he is very worthy of slots in the sideboard. He dilutes your openers, doesn't help give you resilience (Trust me, Mardu doesn't care about him and that's already a hard matchup) and he doesn't speed up the clock. He gives you abilities in matchups where both Lightning Bolt and Fatal push present themselves but yet not when going wide. So we are talking Abzan & Jund style decks, yet it's obvious 4 Etched Champion help those matchups significantly more. I think it's just a fad to find a utility card to help in flooding situations like Hangarback Walker used to be.
Now let's talk about Bomat Courier; Card overperforms. Straight up. It's either a Ball Lightning when equipped with a Cranial Plating, or simply a miniature Treasure Cruise against Combo & Control decks. It requires on demand removal, and helps with nut draws. Consider it extra copies of Signal Pest 5-8. They go out in the same matchups, and are in your hopeful openers in others. If I were to ever replace this card in the deck, I would go to 6-7 copies between Master of Etherium and Etched Champion.
Spire of Industry is a mainstay, but it's incorrect to run 4 copies. Burn is a bad matchup, and most game states the life loss will matter when you prepare yourself for those grindy game 2's.
You need the Island, not the Mountain. You need to have a method of casting Master of Etherium through Blood Moon and Stony Silence (uploaded image for viewing pleasure) If you don't run Master, it's probably a mistake unless you are hellbent on losing to cards like Pyroclasm.
Speaking of which... It's wrong to run Blood Moon in Affinity. Damping Sphere is our new calling. Shuts off Tron and Amulet Bloom without shutting off Inkmoth Nexus and Blinkmoth Nexus. Hinders Storm and KCI severely.
Running Welding Jar is also probably incorrect. I know this is probably the most controversial situation of them all, but I have found this throughout the event - you want one of two things, the card to be resilient or impactful to race. Welding Jar is definitely resilient, but it's optimal situation is merely against controlling or midrange decks, and most of them pack Stony Silence. Welding Jar is a great game 1 card, but it hinders your effectiveness in the matchups it specifically warrants it's positions for in games 2 and 3.
Graveyard decks have our number on speed dial. I would run possibly 4 Rest in Peace and 1 Grafdigger's Cage in the future in my sideboard. I know I will be running 3 this weekend in the upcoming PPTQ locally. Yet I lost both of my matchups in my main event because I wasn't prepared enough for the graveyard attrition & combo based decks.
That's all I got for now. Any questions feel free to reply.
When I played at GP Toronto, my main event didn't work out as well as I had hoped, but including the main event and side events I went 21-4 playing Death's Shadow Jund (FYI this event was before the unbanning of BBE and Jace)
I decided to take a the best note of Mardu Pyromancer's Success and put two copies of Faithless Looting in my maindeck. Not only was it a Delirium enabler, it allowed me to find potential turn 3 kills faster and more effectively than any other card in the format. When considering the mirror match, it also outperformed binging multiple land drops in favour of removal spells and threats.
Since the unbanning I actually don't think Modern has changed much, way more pet decks, but there is still the cream of the crop trying to efficiently beat you down, but I would love statistics to see if my viewpoint is correct or not!
3 Bobs just seem so wrong.
ktkenshinx, I would love if you could do #3. I was about to request something personally as well for an article I am writing. I was also hoping in relations to the Modern format, specifically what win % in the format overall is affected by number of mulligans.
I'd argue something completely different from recent pages of discussion. Modern requires a significant amount more work to be effective in the format compared to Standard.
Skill in Magic can be measured in multiple ways, but what I find are two issues that arises frequently; The ability to recognize areas that need improvement, then acting upon to create those improvements. There are hundreds of players I have come across, both intelligent and somewhat so, who have difficulty in acknowledging their own failures. On the other side of the coin, there are people I find who are able to recognize their problems, but recreate them without any signs of improvement towards a solution.
It's why I find the skill argument lacking when comparing formats. It's just deeply layered problem solving.