Thinking about it, the Satyr actually is fairly applicable in many MUs and can gain some serious pressure by itself while acting as removal. In the Mono-Black MU, this allows you to have some serious play against them that wrecks their early game build up. If they tap out to put Specter into play as a blocker (Somthing mono-red has some problems getting around before due to only having Lightning Strike as an option), it allows you to ditch your sideboarded in Skullcracks for major advantage. Searing Blood just does terrible things to Mutavault blocks in this situation. I'm fairly certain Pack Rat gets sided out, but it lets you put pressure on them while removing a blocker. Certainly paints a target on it's head with Cure, but if you play it right you can probably get value out of it before that happens.
In the Mono-Green match up, you have Mystics and Burning Trees to consider. Killing their devotion on turn 3-4 is the best way to take them down, and once again it's just straight value here. Clear out their Devotion while dealing damage to their head.
In the Mono-Blue MU, it actually gives you some lee-way for dealing with pesky 2/3 Cloudfins, and a nasty trick for Frostburn chumps, and magma jetting your opponent allows you to get rid of Tidebinder. Once again, helps you race a bit and get value out of instants and sorceries.
It just scoffs at the White Weenie MU, which uses loads of X/1s. It actually functions as a decent blocker here.
And of course the red match-up. Post sideboard, with added Searing Bloods, and considering you go the more controlly route, I can see it just wrecking them and hard. You may be going for the long game for an aggro deck, but the added value from your spells means that you are removing their ability to top deck to victory by shortening the game.
Now, will it see play? In the sideboard, perhaps. Even though there are solid targets in many lists, I think it's hampered by being a 1/1 for 1, meaning that those games where your burn isn't enough to kill when copied over it's going to be useless. Also pretty bad against control. It also gets a bit better the more instants/sorceries you run, and considering most RDW decks only run 8-12, I'm not sure it's quite enough. In burn centered strategies, I can see it immediately taking hold. I think straight RDW will need some tweaking, however, to find space for it.
Fantastic analysis.
In a deck like my Willy Pete one - that runs 30 instants and sorceries maindeck - he's ridiculous. I already maindeck Skullcrack and Boros Charm, so he's perfect.
Against aggro I side out Toil//Trouble and, say, two Annihilating Fire, bring in four of these guys and a Mizzium Mortars, and I'm set.
So, I.... yeah. I'm insanely happy about that guy. I mean, my deck is already legitimately competitive, and the one big gaping weakness it had just got filled nicely.
EDIT: Oh, nice, if I get one of him on the board then Stormbreath Dragon is no longer safe from my Warleader's Helixes... excellent.
So basically, when a green monsters deck is positioned well against a control deck, this is a great card. I feel like there are other cards that they could be playing that could do better if their position was this on the board.
I would hardly consider losing all of your creatures to a Supreme Verdict and a Doom Blade being "positioned well." Especially when you're pretty much out of gas at that point, and the control player is about to crush your face in.
But, okay, tell me: What card could a green-based aggro deck cast on turn 5 in that scenario that would do better after a board wipe than Hunter's Prowess? I'd love to hear this.
Okay, the previous example I gave wasn't clear, so... here's another scenario, one that many of you have seen in the current Standard, and one that I believe is a more realistic example of what I'm getting at:
Green player went first. It's now turn four, and green has a good eight power on the board - pretty likely for green. They pass the turn with four mana open.
As a control player, you're facing a tough decision. If you Supreme Verdict and tap out, you leave yourself open to Boon Satyr EoT or Advent of the Wurm EoT - getting hit for four or five next turn would suck, but you have a Doom Blade in hand so you can kill it the turn after, and you'd still be ahead on card advantage. If you instead choose to not Verdict, because you want to Doom Blade a critter on the green player's turn, then you're still going to get hit for eight. The right play here usually is to Verdict; it's the safest bet.
Now, imagine that scenario... but with Hunter's Prowess in the mix. Now, if you Verdict, the green player could be hitting you for seven or even eight the next turn - and they would be refilling their entire hand with you unable to do ANYTHING about it. That would pretty much be game over for you right there, because that is a huge card advantage swing for green. However, if you don't Verdict, then you're guaranteed dead in a turn or two, without the green player having to even cast anything. So, game over that way as well. You're screwed either way, honestly.
Do you guys see now? The mere existence of Hunter's Prowess means that control is going to have to make some very radical changes to how they play, at least in the current Standard, because the existing approach is going to get them killed.
If I'm correct about all this, then Notion Thief is going to see some significant sideboard play. Also, it would explain a lot about the existence of Fate Unraveler and Spirit of the Labyrinth.
Another (extremely simplified) way of looking at is this:
You play Polukranos on turn four.
You cast this on turn five. Now, if your opponent has removal, you were already going to get one-for-one. If they have removal, it's a two-for-one, yeah, okay. That means your opponent has a net card advantage of one.
But if they don't, then you get to draw potentially eight cards. That's a net card advantage of seven for you.
Say that happens only 20% of the time; the other four times out of five your opponent has the Doom Blade or whatever. So, four times out of five you lose a card in advantage by casting this (that's a total of -4, we'll say). The fifth time you gain seven cards by casting this (that's a +7).
That means that the average card advantage from casting Hunter's Prowess on Polukranos on turn five would be three cards (7 - 4 = 3).
---
I feel that that is an overly pessimistic scenario, even, because the odds of your opponent having the removal available AND the mana open are going to be much, much lower than 80% of the time. I could spend an hour and calculate the exact averages, including potential blockers, but I think my example makes my point very clear.
Yeah, guys; those of you who were pointing out that the cards listed were good because they weren't actually "just" those things... that was exactly my point.
Each of those cards, taken by itself and out of context, is underwhelming. When in a tribal deck, however, their power is increased significantly.
Now, WotC is making it very clear that they're wanting to make a minotaur tribal deck an actual thing, and in such a deck, Oracle of Bones goes from "interesting" to "terrifying".
Since Theros and Born of the Gods are not as multicolored as RTR, I decided to see how the monocolored cards fit into my breakdown of archetypes, and how they contribute to the different color combos.
Looking solely at the archetypes that Theros draft has, I decided that each color had one Major area and two Minor areas. For example, with White, I determined that its Major is "midrange" - because it appears in both archetypes in the midrange category, while its Minors are "control/fliers" and "aggro" - because it appears once in each category, if that makes sense.
The results I came up with were... interesting. Namely, each color's areas correspond exactly to how the color fundamentally works. Observe:
White MAJOR: Midrange MINOR: Control/Fliers MINOR: Aggro
Blue MAJOR: Control/Fliers MINOR: Removal/Grave MINOR: Ramp/Tempo
Black MAJOR: Removal/Grave MINOR: Aggro MINOR: Midrange
Red MAJOR: Aggro MINOR: Ramp/Tempo MINOR: Control/Fliers
Green MAJOR: Ramp/Tempo MINOR: Midrange MINOR: Removal/Grave
What this means is that WotC is keeping each color as intuitively "pure" as possible. It's.... it's as if each color is its Platonic ideal, and each color combination is the same way. Contrast that to RTR's guilds, where each combination is viewed through the lens of the guild.
There are two conclusions I'm able to draw from this, one that applies to Theros Block Limited and one that... well, you'll see.
In regards to Limited: The uncommons and commons for each color are set so that they fall into the categories I described, which means that there is a lot less competition between archetypes. The Major cards are going to be desired the most, of course, but the Minor ones are pretty much going to filter to the specific decks that want them. This is how it currently works in THS/THS/THS and from we've seen of Born of the Gods, that will continue to be the case.
---
The other conclusion: This is definitely entering the realm of speculation, but please bear with me. Now, we know that WotC has been working on making inter-block synergy a lot better - which is why Theros has a lot of cards that synergize really well with Return to Ravnica.
My analysis shows that that is largely because the colors here as pure and ideal as they could be. If WotC just needed them to hook in to RTR, they could have made them a lot more in line with the guilds... they didn't need to make them as idealized as they did.
My guess is that the reason that they would have done this is because the upcoming block is going to add its own spin to gold cards, and that would have been incompatible with the Ravnica guilds. What spin is that, you ask?
Look again at the chart in the first post. Do you see how each line equates to a three-color combination?
A three-color wedge combination?
What I'm getting at is that, based on this information, my guess - again, this is a long shot, and I could be overthinking this - is that the next block is going to be what MaRo's been calling "Bizarralara".
I dunno, Im pretty skeptical about this one. I like the card, but remember back in M12, Hunter's Insight? If I remember right it saw very little play and I feel like its much better than this card..
The key difference between this and Hunter's Insight is that, for just two extra mana, this has Predator's Strike included; that effectively gives you an extra three cards right off the bat.
Looking back at the number crunch, there isn't room for a full cycle of ten multicolored uncommons in BNG. So I'm wrong about that. Strange, then, to put Kiora's Follower in BNG, if it will be the only enemy-colored uncommon in the set. There's no reason why Kiora would need to have a gold card associated with her in the block, and it could have been pushed off to JOU regardless. Strange.
My guess is that there are two reasons. The first, flavor-based, reason is that he abandoned his goddess, Kruphix, to follow Kiora instead... literally. Which is clever, because Kruphix is stuck in JOU with the other enemy-colored gods.
The second, mechanics-based reason is that he works very well as an inspiration-enabler, and he also meshes very well with Kiora's abilities.
EDIT: MaRo's been making a big deal about how Born of the Gods is the first set to fully benefit from "advanced design", and what from he's said about that process so far, it would make perfect sense for them to have the block's limited format balanced to this extent.
When you're playing green, it's generally assumed you're going to have more creatures than your opponent, that they're going to be bigger than your opponents (or at the very least the same size!), and that your opponent is going to tap out against you.
Like, that's just a fundamental part of green being green.
This card rewards green for being itself and requires no adjustment in strategy for the green player to accommodate it. None.
It's a pump card, it's evasion, and it's insane card advantage, all in one neat package. That is absolutely ridiculous.
I'm calling this the most powerful card in the current Standard, and one of the most powerful green cards ever printed.
EDIT: If you disagree with me, then I expect you to be willing to back up your claim; I've already backed up mine.
Born of the Gods is full of so much sheer goodness that I can hardly believe we still have a third of the set still unrevealed.
Fantastic analysis.
In a deck like my Willy Pete one - that runs 30 instants and sorceries maindeck - he's ridiculous. I already maindeck Skullcrack and Boros Charm, so he's perfect.
Against aggro I side out Toil//Trouble and, say, two Annihilating Fire, bring in four of these guys and a Mizzium Mortars, and I'm set.
I'm currently running four Young Pyromancer in the sideboard... because they generate blockers against aggro. That's all.
Young Pyromancer just found his replacement.
Here's the list in question, by the way:
4x Annihilating Fire
4x Boros Charm
4x Lightning Strike
4x Magma Jet
4x Skullcrack
4x Warleader's Helix
3x Flames of the Firebrand
3x Toil / Trouble
4x Spark Trooper
1x Mizzium Mortars
Enchantment (1)
1x Hammer of Purphoros
Lands (24)
4x Boros Guildgate
15x Mountain
1x Plains
4x Temple of Triumph
1x Mizzium Mortars
3x Anger of the Gods
4x Young Pyromancer
3x Chained to the Rocks
3x Peak Eruption
1x Wear / Tear
So, I.... yeah. I'm insanely happy about that guy. I mean, my deck is already legitimately competitive, and the one big gaping weakness it had just got filled nicely.
EDIT: Oh, nice, if I get one of him on the board then Stormbreath Dragon is no longer safe from my Warleader's Helixes... excellent.
I would hardly consider losing all of your creatures to a Supreme Verdict and a Doom Blade being "positioned well." Especially when you're pretty much out of gas at that point, and the control player is about to crush your face in.
But, okay, tell me: What card could a green-based aggro deck cast on turn 5 in that scenario that would do better after a board wipe than Hunter's Prowess? I'd love to hear this.
...has the best flavor text AND the best art that I've seen in a very, very long time.
Green player went first. It's now turn four, and green has a good eight power on the board - pretty likely for green. They pass the turn with four mana open.
As a control player, you're facing a tough decision. If you Supreme Verdict and tap out, you leave yourself open to Boon Satyr EoT or Advent of the Wurm EoT - getting hit for four or five next turn would suck, but you have a Doom Blade in hand so you can kill it the turn after, and you'd still be ahead on card advantage. If you instead choose to not Verdict, because you want to Doom Blade a critter on the green player's turn, then you're still going to get hit for eight. The right play here usually is to Verdict; it's the safest bet.
Now, imagine that scenario... but with Hunter's Prowess in the mix. Now, if you Verdict, the green player could be hitting you for seven or even eight the next turn - and they would be refilling their entire hand with you unable to do ANYTHING about it. That would pretty much be game over for you right there, because that is a huge card advantage swing for green. However, if you don't Verdict, then you're guaranteed dead in a turn or two, without the green player having to even cast anything. So, game over that way as well. You're screwed either way, honestly.
Do you guys see now? The mere existence of Hunter's Prowess means that control is going to have to make some very radical changes to how they play, at least in the current Standard, because the existing approach is going to get them killed.
You play Polukranos on turn four.
You cast this on turn five. Now, if your opponent has removal, you were already going to get one-for-one. If they have removal, it's a two-for-one, yeah, okay. That means your opponent has a net card advantage of one.
But if they don't, then you get to draw potentially eight cards. That's a net card advantage of seven for you.
Say that happens only 20% of the time; the other four times out of five your opponent has the Doom Blade or whatever. So, four times out of five you lose a card in advantage by casting this (that's a total of -4, we'll say). The fifth time you gain seven cards by casting this (that's a +7).
That means that the average card advantage from casting Hunter's Prowess on Polukranos on turn five would be three cards (7 - 4 = 3).
---
I feel that that is an overly pessimistic scenario, even, because the odds of your opponent having the removal available AND the mana open are going to be much, much lower than 80% of the time. I could spend an hour and calculate the exact averages, including potential blockers, but I think my example makes my point very clear.
Yeah, guys; those of you who were pointing out that the cards listed were good because they weren't actually "just" those things... that was exactly my point.
Each of those cards, taken by itself and out of context, is underwhelming. When in a tribal deck, however, their power is increased significantly.
Now, WotC is making it very clear that they're wanting to make a minotaur tribal deck an actual thing, and in such a deck, Oracle of Bones goes from "interesting" to "terrifying".
Since Theros and Born of the Gods are not as multicolored as RTR, I decided to see how the monocolored cards fit into my breakdown of archetypes, and how they contribute to the different color combos.
Looking solely at the archetypes that Theros draft has, I decided that each color had one Major area and two Minor areas. For example, with White, I determined that its Major is "midrange" - because it appears in both archetypes in the midrange category, while its Minors are "control/fliers" and "aggro" - because it appears once in each category, if that makes sense.
The results I came up with were... interesting. Namely, each color's areas correspond exactly to how the color fundamentally works. Observe:
What this means is that WotC is keeping each color as intuitively "pure" as possible. It's.... it's as if each color is its Platonic ideal, and each color combination is the same way. Contrast that to RTR's guilds, where each combination is viewed through the lens of the guild.
There are two conclusions I'm able to draw from this, one that applies to Theros Block Limited and one that... well, you'll see.
In regards to Limited: The uncommons and commons for each color are set so that they fall into the categories I described, which means that there is a lot less competition between archetypes. The Major cards are going to be desired the most, of course, but the Minor ones are pretty much going to filter to the specific decks that want them. This is how it currently works in THS/THS/THS and from we've seen of Born of the Gods, that will continue to be the case.
---
The other conclusion: This is definitely entering the realm of speculation, but please bear with me. Now, we know that WotC has been working on making inter-block synergy a lot better - which is why Theros has a lot of cards that synergize really well with Return to Ravnica.
My analysis shows that that is largely because the colors here as pure and ideal as they could be. If WotC just needed them to hook in to RTR, they could have made them a lot more in line with the guilds... they didn't need to make them as idealized as they did.
My guess is that the reason that they would have done this is because the upcoming block is going to add its own spin to gold cards, and that would have been incompatible with the Ravnica guilds. What spin is that, you ask?
Look again at the chart in the first post. Do you see how each line equates to a three-color combination?
A three-color wedge combination?
What I'm getting at is that, based on this information, my guess - again, this is a long shot, and I could be overthinking this - is that the next block is going to be what MaRo's been calling "Bizarralara".
The key difference between this and Hunter's Insight is that, for just two extra mana, this has Predator's Strike included; that effectively gives you an extra three cards right off the bat.
My guess is that there are two reasons. The first, flavor-based, reason is that he abandoned his goddess, Kruphix, to follow Kiora instead... literally. Which is clever, because Kruphix is stuck in JOU with the other enemy-colored gods.
The second, mechanics-based reason is that he works very well as an inspiration-enabler, and he also meshes very well with Kiora's abilities.
EDIT: MaRo's been making a big deal about how Born of the Gods is the first set to fully benefit from "advanced design", and what from he's said about that process so far, it would make perfect sense for them to have the block's limited format balanced to this extent.
Like, that's just a fundamental part of green being green.
This card rewards green for being itself and requires no adjustment in strategy for the green player to accommodate it. None.
It's a pump card, it's evasion, and it's insane card advantage, all in one neat package. That is absolutely ridiculous.
I'm calling this the most powerful card in the current Standard, and one of the most powerful green cards ever printed.
EDIT: If you disagree with me, then I expect you to be willing to back up your claim; I've already backed up mine.
And Champion of the Parish is just a 1/1 for one.
Spellstutter Sprite is just a 1/1 flyer with flash for two.
Merrow Reejerey is a boring 2/2 for three.
Dragonstorm is just an overpriced piece of chaff.
Fine by me. It just means I can horde them before they price spike.