Quote from Stoogeslap »All of these price increases have got me thinking, at what point are prices felt to be cemented? When does the community begin to accept the prices are real & not an inflation anymore?
These are good questions, and unfortunately I don't think that anyone has the answer. I'd say that we'll probably see a couple categories.
1) Cards like Wheel of Fortune that are played a ton in EDH/casual circles. The demand for Wheel is more organic, and while investors are able to make the price jump, it's probably harder because so many copies are in decks, but people are also more willing to pry them out of those decks if the price goes too high. It's almost like a safety valve - if the price pressure goes too high, more copies appear on the market, and people who're "working the market" don't want to have to constantly scour to buy up all the copies. So my guess is that these cards will start to smooth out pretty soon.
2) Cards like Gaea's Cradle that are legitimate irreplaceable Legacy staples. So many copies of these cards are "locked" into decks that they may as well not exist. It's easy to push the price on these, since there are so few on the market at any time, so I imagine that these are just not going to recover. The new price on Underground Sea is $375, that's just what it is. There isn't much flex in supply on these - they're locked into people's decks, so unless folks abandon Legacy en masse we're not going to see many new copies on the market in response to the increased price.
3) Cards like Thunder Spirit that are just kind of reserved. It's not a great card. People bought them because they were rare and hard to find. These are the Paris Hiltons of MTG - they're expensive because they're expensive. These are fully at the mercy of the market, and because the price jumped so fast a lot of people (Except for me. I am lazy.) thought that it was worth digging them out of their bulk, allowing manipulators to snap up remaining supply in one go. Will prices smooth out as people realize that there is literally no market for Marjhan? Impossible to say, since we are not the ones doing the manipulation.
These are, at this point, only guesses on my part. It's very hard to see the whole thing, and impossible to affect with our resources (I am assuming that you do not have a spare million dollars lying around). Hopefully this helps, even though it's just speculation.