GF started with a RVS vote on Osie which became a serious vote as of post #69. He didn't explain why it became a serious vote until prodded by Proph, and the explanation was:
Didn't like the mafia slip question towards you at all (looked like asking for permission to push) and the town read on you seemed flimsy. I also find their presence to be a bit jaggedy and uneven. A weird mixture of relaxation and discomfort that I can't quite figure out. Knowing they're familiar with everyone here makes me lean towards the discomfort I'm picking up on be from rolling scum but it's a minor thing
He described his read as a "late day 1" serious read in his previous post, but this really doesn't read that strong (if you are describing it specifically as "late D1" I generally take that to mean "pretty strong"), so there's some disconnect there for me.
He also threw out a read on Last which was that this seemed like Town Last to him, because Last seemed engaged and relaxed, and he thinks that's harder for scum-Last to fake. I guess I disagree, both with the premise and the conclusion. I didn't feel like Last seemed especially more engaged or relaxed at the beginning of this game than any other I've been in him with, and I definitely didn't feel like anything he posted early couldn't have come from scum. I would not read much at all into the early banter stuff.
Proph seems to feel the same way here and questions Grape a bit more about this read. Grape continues to say he thinks Last - while maybe being peeved - is not showing an "undercurrent" of fear or being uncomfortable. It's hard to judge these personality based reads you disagree with, so, it's kind of just note it for the time being and move along.
In #152 he applauds DoTA for joining the Osie wagon, but questions his Town-read on KJ. This was for the post where DoTA said he didn't think scum-KJ would bring up the fact that I (Axelrod) might have been attempting "distancing" between myself and DoTA by leaving him out of my Blue cards list. Considering that I do not think this was what KJ was even saying, I feel like this was a mis-read on the part of DoTArchon. That did not appear to be the point that Grape was making here though.
Grape also questions Cantrip's early Town-read on Osie. Fine.
Proph makes a meta-post on Last arguing that his entrance in this game looks more like his scum games than his town games, particularly when it comes to RVS voting. Grape disagrees. Somewhat interestingly, he concludes that he now has to re-evaluate Osie because he now thinks Proph and Osie may be unaligned (and he's voting Osie). Grape doesn't change his vote here, though the tone suggests his suspicion of Proph has now become greater.
Proph then does a complete 180 on Last and says he now thinks Last is Town. Grape says that kind of flip probably more likely comes from a Town Proph. and he might be right about that, but then also immediately criticizes Proph on another point saying this makes all the good feelings go away. Seems to think that Proph should be re-evaluating the whole game in light of his new opinion on Last, but Proph. isn't doing that. Probably don't agree with this.
Last questions Grape on the strength of his Osie read and Grape comes back with "Convinced but filled with crippling self doubt" which is a line I kind of like, but don't think is really alignment indicative.
My browser just went all funky on me and created multiple tabs of pages I have open. I think I have hit some button by mistake but I don't know what one. So I'm just posting this now before I lose it. I'm kind of of tired anyway, so I'm finishing this later.
Even though I solved it with my last post, I guess I'll still soldier on with these reviews.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
16 D1 posts, so, same logic applies here as to Cantrip's low post count.
First post is random RVS vote, fine.
He then starts in on Crossbell, and it's, also fine? He points out that Osie (and now I'm deciding I'm just going to say "Osie" from here on out because it's easier than "Crossbell") didn't really interact with me before casting his "serious" vote, and asks if other people's posts commenting on my "meta" have had any effect on this read. He doesn't care for Osie's explanation and then votes him in #139. I have no issues here. I thought fair points were made.
He then spends some time justifying a read in which he says he feels like - due to Osie and my interactions - we probably aren't a T/T pair, but either T/W or W/W pair. I don't quite follow the logic process here (he says, knowing it is incorrect). Seems like what he's saying is that we talked to each other for a bunch of posts, but in a way that didn't advance the game or that would help us figure each other out. This is kind of true, though it ignores the context, which primarily was me (1) thinking I had it figured out who Osie was, followed by (2) Osie implying it wasn't him, and (3) me (jokingly) going off on why he should have been the person I thought he was (who he actually was, but he was still trying to be deceptive about it.)
I guess I don't have all that much problem with this either. Two people making a lot of not-directly-game related posts in a row can look wrong, even if it is still very early in the game. Though his logic is off that it can't be T/T who do this (and he didn't say "can't" just that his "gut" said not T/T). I mean, the fact that one Town can do it ought to make it self-evident that two Town can. Regardless, I don't find it suspicious.
I also can't really fault him for poking at Osie, as I was doing pretty much the same thing. And it doesn't feel like he's piggybacking or bandwaggoning here.
DoTA promises some thoughts on other people in #306, and then, after some further prodding (from Proph - which looks good on him) finally gives some more thoughts in #437.
Grape - Think he's Town. Because he doesn't get "scum vibes" from his posts.
Wisp - Having a hard time reading. Maybe a little less volatile than he remembers Town-Wisp being. Just below null.
DV - Feels like antagonistic Town
Cantrip - Not a lot of posts, but every one has content. Thinks Cantrip is trying to figure out the game.
Proph - Also has a hard time reading. Thinks Proph/Wisp/Osie spend a lot of time talking to each other. Paranoia about scum deciding to go for top posters together.
Killjoy - Had an early Town read but now questioning. Because he has a bad post/content ratio.
Aaaaaannnnd, these are shallow, but okay? Nothing controversial here or beyond scum-range, but nothing sticks out as suspicious either.
He unvotes Osie when GJ replaces in, (#470, 7/2), but he is not impressed with GJ's posts and re-votes 2 posts later (#592, 7/5). I don't have issues with the vote here as such either. It was deadline time and a choice needed to be made. Osie was his top pick before, and GJ didn't move the needle enough (or at all?)
The worst thing about all this is his simple lack of presence. Similar to Cantrip, DoTA just was not around much on D1. He used the timezone difference as an excuse at least once. And then maybe work/business. But he's barely played. So, it's certainly possible he's coasting scum. But that said, I don't have too many issues with anything specific he's actually posted. Most of it reads fine, and I can even agree with a lot of it.
Bringing up the rear of the post-count, we have...Cantripmancer! With a whopping 12 posts so far (11 on D1). My starting assumption is that this is bad.
It is bad for two reasons: (1) Lurking is bad. But also (2) in this particular game, Osie had a lot of heat for a lot of the day and it never really went away. This is a situation that the Mafia would be fairly happy about, and (usually) hope to maintain. Not impossible for one of them to assume the White Knight position and strongly defend the wrongly accused (i.e. the Proph. gambit theory), but probably less likely than just being okay with the status quo. So, I'm reviewing Cantrip with that in mind and looking at how his posts would fit that hypothesis.
On the positive side, with his 11 posts, Cantrip did not spend a lot of them on meaningless fluff. First post was reasonably comprehensive, giving a thought on every player.
On Osie, he has Town-leaning, because he is a sucker for high posters (not unreasonable) and also suspects who he is and that he's in his town meta (kind of whatever, and apparently he was wrong about who he thought Osie was). On DV he just says: "I hate reading DV. Scumlean" which I don't understand.
He has mild Town leans on both Killjoy and DoTA, that I don't love for the stated reasons. On Killjoy appears to be another meta read and thinks he's showing his "town paranoid" self. On DoTa he says he thinks he's been trying to solve, and showed insight into Killjoy's mindset. I'll note here that DoTA was voting for Crossbell at this moment who appeared to be top town for Cantrip. Cantrip doesn't address that.
Mild townlean for Wisp because he feels Wisp is posting in a "careless" manner that would be harder for scum Wisp to fake. I probably disagree.
Grape and myself are both "Null" at this point. Grape because he has positive and Negative thoughts. Me because I haven't posted much.
Top scum is Proph at the beginning. I don't really have an issue with his early basis here, but I do have a small issue with the fact that this read - while mentioned a couple times - is never really argued. After his 1st post, Cantrip does not question Proph. Proph responds to him and seems to want to engage, but Cantrip kind of doesn't.
The worst part of Cantrip is that he just wasn't around. He voted Proph in his first post of the day and left it there the entire day - even though in his last post of the day he said it was actually feeling more like Town!Proph to him. He made many excuses for being busy/internet troubles. Basically hasn't really played yet, with no strong opinions expressed. And though he supposedly had Osie as a town-read, he most definitely did not attempt to defend him, or argue against his elimination. And that's certainly a possible scum play - i.e. say you think the Town is Town, but then sit back and watch while he's voted out and not do anything to try and stop it or suggest someone else.
I do like some of his smaller posts here and there. He makes some reasonable points when he's making points. He's just not doing it enough. Which means there's nothing here that I can grab onto and say "oh yeah, this guy's Town." His Town read of Osie and the end of day in particular (or lack of it, as the case may be) is a little worse looking. As is his lack of engagement with his supposed top suspect.
@Axelrod why would pushing over being too correct give you the heebie jeebies? Isn't that the basis of a lot of mafia tells based on TMI?
It gives me heebie-jeebies because I feel like that's how we just lose, going after someone who was right on the basis that I don't think they should/could have made that read. That's almost a vanity position. Like, I can get suspicious of someone for expressing a read I don't think they should have such a basis for (and I'm not - at this moment - swearing on a Bible that I won't go down this path at some point), but this is not where we should be leading off the day. I am going to re-read a bunch of other stuff first.
Now, of course, the new set has dropped on MTGO/Arena and I just want to play it, so that's currently distracting me. But I won't be ignoring this game.
I will say without re-reading that, despite my questioning the strength of Proph’s Town read on Osie, the idea of going after him for being “too correct” gives me the heebie-jeebies, and I don’t think that will be happening today.
(Phone. I won’t have a computer until this evening)
I totally blew it on the deadline. I thought I had another day. Yes I see now that Highroller literally announced we had like 50 minutes left two posts before my last, but I didn’t see it then. I was mentally in a “I still have 24 hours” headspace.
So, my bad there. I won’t claim I would have changed my position at the last minute, but I would have been around had I realized it.
I didn’t re-read anything during the night because I didn’t want to have wasted my time if I woke up dead today (recognizing that the chances of me living were dramatically improved by being incorrect on Osie/GJ). So, stuff starts this evening probably.
I may be able to check in via the phone during the day today when I’m not too busy, but going back and reviewing stuff is almost impossible.
Well, you kind of need to re-read the sequence here, since leaving the vote on you/Osie was exactly what I did, and no hemming or hawing was involved. I expressed a certain amount of irritation/frustration about Osie dropping out and being unable to cross-examine him, but not that.
And, dude, the "dazzling" thing is just saying that nothing you posted, in the few post you did make, screamed "Townie" to me. Which, they might have? It's happened before. There was no expectation there, however. It was not a demand that you dazzle me or else. It was an observation.
You were 100% hemming and hawing.
We would appear to have very different definitions of "hemming and hawing."
Well, I also find Proph's conviction that Osie is Town to be well out of whack with what Osie actually put into the thread, but I'm not going down that rabbit hole right now.
All right, this is somewhat more in depth on the Crossbell/Osie slot. Some of this, possibly a lot of this, could be seen as a conflict in playstyle and what I consider good Town play in general, but some of this is just scummy period.
First post I questioned was #20, where Crossbell asked Proph whether something LW said was a "mafia-slip" or not. And my question here is, why is he asking this question? Is it serious, or a joke? Does he really want to know this answer? Knowing this is Osie kind of makes it worse, because I feel like Osie has been around a long time and should "know" LW's game as much as Proph (maybe I'm horribly off base here?) It seems strange to me that he would know the players well enough to supposedly know that Proph might have insight on this particular point, but still not know the actual answer himself. I asked Osie for a clarification on exactly what he meant with this post, and the answer I got was kind of weak.
Then he placed his first "serious" vote in #61, and it was on me. He (of course) did not say why. Those kind of votes tend to bug me in general, though I know Town do it, so it's not the fact he didn't explain the vote as much as the fact that there was no basis for making a "serious" vote on me there to begin with. I had only made some silly RVS posts up to that point. I know some people think they can really peg someone off even one RVS post, but...those people are dumb.
Now he will eventually "explain" it, when he does his big read-list post, and it's apparently this:
Axelrod - Needed to explain their RVS vote. Feels generally a bit awkward; possibly their first scumgame in a while? The only talk in the game they really do after that point is still playing defense, it seems. Not a good start for one of the better town players on the site. Scumread.
I could have a field day here, and write an essay on why every part of this is either incorrect or makes zero sense, but, shorter version is that (1) I did not need to "explain" my RVS vote, any more than anyone "explains" a RVS vote which was made for a silly reason. I said I was going to vote for a Blue card. Because Blue sucks (which, true, but not the point). This appears to be a comment on "defensiveness" in general, which, he I guess thinks is bad, but if that is the case, he's just wrong on both points.
(2) "Feels awkward" is, of course, an impossible standard to argue, in as much as he's supposedly giving his personal feeling about a post(s). I mean, I was not feeling awkward. I know this. I was trying to be humorous. What is "awkward" anyway? If he had tried to actually break this feeling down and explain what he believed to be awkward we might have been able to have a conversation there, but, he doesn't do that.
(3) Me "playing defense." This simply makes no sense at all? What is he even talking about? The fact that Proph asked me (humorously, I thought) why I didn't include Timetwister and I gave him a humorous answer? There was literally nothing else there for him to have even been talking about, but it makes zero sense as a comment or explanation.
So, this whole post just looked completely fabricated.
I already did a point-by-point of the big read list post itself. I thought it was bad.
Something to talk about, I suppose, is the idea that this is standard play from Osie, i.e. pushing players early and trying to sort quickly and throwing out big read-lists with little justifications behind them. I can't say how true this all is or not. I know the last game we played which has been mentioned was on MU and (as Town) he also threw out a read list of players (in his very first post, no less), but I did go and look at that one, at least, and I thought it was qualitatively different from what he did here. I'm not calling him scum because it was different. I'm just not giving him any "town meta" points in as much as that might be a thing. There's also the fact Osie said he does that as scum, but I guess we'll get to that.
Crossbell got questioned by at least two other people regarding his "Axel seems awkward" point, and these were his responses to those questions:
Yeah, they just appear awkward, as if this game is somehow different for them than their recent games. Shrugs
I've seen a lot of their games and talked with them some personally and am just feeling that they are awkward here, as I had explained. I feel like you aren't really taking my actual explanation into account in terms of my thoughts on Axelrod.
"As I had explained." He never explained anything. Plus, even if this was somehow an accurate observation (which it wasn't) it would mean jack squat as far as my alignment - unless you prescribe to the mafia theory that everything is meta, and if someone does something different in this game from something they did in another game - where they were scum or town - then they are probably a different alignment in this game. Which is a terrible theory.
He then clarified further: "I said that they were tonally awkward" (he didn't) "It's a toneread." Which is, to me, not quite the same thing, but it seems easier to defend "toneread" as opposed to having to point out specific posts that were objectively "awkward."
He also seemed to beg off not actually having tried to interact with me directly, question me, prod me, about anything, with the line "Axel hasn't been around to interact with." Which was both (1) objectively untrue, and (2) irrelevant, you can still ask me questions even if I'm not around at that moment.
Osie then did his "meta" analysis on me in 153 which I haven't said anything about yet. He seems to be trying to make the point that - in other games where I was Town - I was less jokey, and/or I usually got more serious within 100 posts (like this was some kind of a magic number), but this game was different. Putting aside the different /= scummy issue, it was a completely ridiculous "meta" read to begin with. When I "get serious" depends 100%, entirely, on what is happening in the game at that time.
I feel like Osie was maybe getting some heat at this point on multiple fronts. And that's when he started getting cryptic and suggesting this might all be part of some larger plan. When suggested that I rarely do much in the early game, his response:
Sure, I am pushing that a bit harder than I might otherwise for reasons.
Note his claim of "pushing." Yet, he has not "pushed" me directly even once. He's put me at the bottom of his readlist, saying I felt awkward, and that it's a toneread...and that's it. Zero questions to me at all. In what universe is this "pushing?" Ah, but he has "reasons" you see. Except you won't because he never explains what those reasons are.
And the worst one, when LW remarked that - if Town - he thought Osie would be more frustrated:
Not if the game is going exactly as planned.
Ah ha! It's all part of the plan! I see.
Wait, no I don't.
Incidentally, his read on me changes later. In later posts he will claim that his problem with me is NOT that I was "awkward," but that I have not been doing enough to progress the game. And he claims he has been trying to "push" me to make me more active. Which, I don't even know how to respond to that, except it's a stupid retcon/revisionist history and objectively not true.
Grabbed this because he's right and while I've been liking Axel I have a hard time imaging the thought process that would lead me to believe that Cross and Proph were buddies at that point.
And is this just because they were engaging with each other? Even though it was not any kind of pointed engagement that I can see? It was more like chatting than anything else. And I feel like that is totally something that scum-buddies could do, and even plan - given the existence of Day-chat.
Seems like you're saying they just talked to each other too much, period.
I mean, from a statistical standpoint it is probably unlikely, but I definitely am not ruling it out.
I think I would have thought Axel 10x better if he just left his vote on me and went this changes nothing, instead of hemming and hawing about replacements and then finding a way to get back on because I can't dazzle him from the 2nd-4th of July.
Well, you kind of need to re-read the sequence here, since leaving the vote on you/Osie was exactly what I did, and no hemming or hawing was involved. I expressed a certain amount of irritation/frustration about Osie dropping out and being unable to cross-examine him, but not that.
And, dude, the "dazzling" thing is just saying that nothing you posted, in the few post you did make, screamed "Townie" to me. Which, they might have? It's happened before. There was no expectation there, however. It was not a demand that you dazzle me or else. It was an observation.
I'm doing July 4th stuff today. I'll try to have something more comprehensive to say tomorrow. I don't "think" I'm getting away from Crossbell/Osie though. GJ isn't dazzling me with his Towniness so far, and Osie was just pretty bad.
GF started with a RVS vote on Osie which became a serious vote as of post #69. He didn't explain why it became a serious vote until prodded by Proph, and the explanation was:He described his read as a "late day 1" serious read in his previous post, but this really doesn't read that strong (if you are describing it specifically as "late D1" I generally take that to mean "pretty strong"), so there's some disconnect there for me.
He also threw out a read on Last which was that this seemed like Town Last to him, because Last seemed engaged and relaxed, and he thinks that's harder for scum-Last to fake. I guess I disagree, both with the premise and the conclusion. I didn't feel like Last seemed especially more engaged or relaxed at the beginning of this game than any other I've been in him with, and I definitely didn't feel like anything he posted early couldn't have come from scum. I would not read much at all into the early banter stuff.
Proph seems to feel the same way here and questions Grape a bit more about this read. Grape continues to say he thinks Last - while maybe being peeved - is not showing an "undercurrent" of fear or being uncomfortable. It's hard to judge these personality based reads you disagree with, so, it's kind of just note it for the time being and move along.
In #152 he applauds DoTA for joining the Osie wagon, but questions his Town-read on KJ. This was for the post where DoTA said he didn't think scum-KJ would bring up the fact that I (Axelrod) might have been attempting "distancing" between myself and DoTA by leaving him out of my Blue cards list. Considering that I do not think this was what KJ was even saying, I feel like this was a mis-read on the part of DoTArchon. That did not appear to be the point that Grape was making here though.
Grape also questions Cantrip's early Town-read on Osie. Fine.
Proph makes a meta-post on Last arguing that his entrance in this game looks more like his scum games than his town games, particularly when it comes to RVS voting. Grape disagrees. Somewhat interestingly, he concludes that he now has to re-evaluate Osie because he now thinks Proph and Osie may be unaligned (and he's voting Osie). Grape doesn't change his vote here, though the tone suggests his suspicion of Proph has now become greater.
Proph then does a complete 180 on Last and says he now thinks Last is Town. Grape says that kind of flip probably more likely comes from a Town Proph. and he might be right about that, but then also immediately criticizes Proph on another point saying this makes all the good feelings go away. Seems to think that Proph should be re-evaluating the whole game in light of his new opinion on Last, but Proph. isn't doing that. Probably don't agree with this.
Last questions Grape on the strength of his Osie read and Grape comes back with "Convinced but filled with crippling self doubt" which is a line I kind of like, but don't think is really alignment indicative.
My browser just went all funky on me and created multiple tabs of pages I have open. I think I have hit some button by mistake but I don't know what one. So I'm just posting this now before I lose it. I'm kind of of tired anyway, so I'm finishing this later.
Killjoy
I liked one of Killjoy's first posts, where he made an observation that my failure to include Timetwister in my list of Blue cards to vote suggested that I would be less likely scum-alligned with DoTA. Because, if we were buddies, I would probably have been more conscious of leaving my buddy deliberately off a list he might otherwise have been included on. I thought that was a fair observation, and showed some kind of critical thinking/game solving mentality. It was just one sentence though, and certainly not something he couldn't have said as scum.
Another reasonable observation is at #267 where he points out to DoTA that DoTA is questioning whether Osie and I are trying to figure each other out or not (or just posting for the sake of show), and he asks DoTA - if trying to figure each other out is one of the possibilities - why does DoTA also say he doesn't think it's a T/T interaction? What specifically makes him feel that? This is a fair question, which again seems to show a game-solving mentality. But again, I would say it's also not outside scum-range, particularly because as scum Killjoy would know that this was, in fact, a T/T interaction. This post does give me "Killjoy less likely aligned with DoTA" vibes though.
In #324 Killjoy makes another "I think they are less likely aligned" observation regarding DV and Osie for what he regards as a weak attack on Osie by DV (basically Osie gave Proph an early "town" read and DV questioned the genuineness of this read). All this seems fair.
Killjoy seems to suspect Proph a little early on for what he perceives as Proph asking some poor questions. The good here is that Killjoy is directly engaging Proph on the topic, and not just saying it into the void (and voting). It's more probing, like he's trying to solve Proph. So, I think it's still fine.
He then throws out some more comprehensive thoughts at #475.
Thinks I am likely Town because I got some heat/criticism early for doing essentially what I always do, and he thinks that criticism might have been more likely to come from scum. Not sure about this reasoning - a lot came from Osie - but it doesn't feel like it's "insider" info leaking out here.
Proph he seems to have come around on as more likely Town, as a rusty Town Proph who hasn't Towned it up in awhile makes sense to Killjoy for why Proph's questions aren't the greatest. Okay.
No opinion on Cantrip. Just says he's one of the "tricksy" ones who uses a lot of words and needs to keep an eye out. Okay.
No good opinion on Osie yet. Says his posts have been...fine? Also, probably okay, though he probably should have a better opinion on one of the top posters who's been the subject of much discussion thus far.
DoTA - some decent posts but not a lot of content. Fine. This is kind of how I felt also.
Doesn't remember much about Grape and need to re-read him. Maybe fine? Does he ever do this?
Current best guesses for scum are DV (whiff) and Last.
DV because he's both (1) aggressively jumped on Proph, but also (2) been "hedgy in a bad way." Which are somewhat contradictory things. Also, I don't see where he mentioned anything about this before. Before, he seemed to be questioning DV for DV's theory that Osie was showing inside info in declaring Proph Town. That wasn't DV going after Proph at all. Maybe DV did start going after Proph (don't remember and not looking it up) but Killjoy never said anything about that before this, and also doesn't seem to be questioning DV about it now either. Doesn't point out where DV has been hedgy either. So, this looks less solvey and more conclusory.
Last because Killjoy specifically doesn't like Last's progression on him. Claims Last has been saying Killjoy is null to him, but at the same time, claims that Last is arguing repeatedly that others should also not have developed a "Town" read on Killjoy. I read the three post Killjoy linked to make this argument and they are all posts where Last is saying Killjoy is null and he basically has no thoughts. They are not posts where Last is arguing to others that they should not have Town thoughts about Killjoy, so that part of this argument was not supported here. Maybe Last did make those statements, I just don't see them yet and I am not trying to look them up. If Last did, it's a better argument than if Killjoy's entire point is based on a read of only the three posts he quoted.
Something to possibly be said about KJ not jumping the Osie wagon and seeming to be willing to give GJ more time to get into the game.
He then engages a bit with both of his above referenced scum-reads. With DV, he points out a DV post he says he didn't like, along with what he perceives to be a scummy pattern of behavior. With Last, he goes much more into depth. He breaks down why he feels Last's repeated remarks that KJ is "null" looked malicious to him (i.e. an attempt to get other people to agree and degrade their Town-reads on KJ.) This is, in some ways, an answer to my question above, though I'm not sure how much I agree with it. He finally challenges DV's scum read on himself - saying essentially that DV should know better.
I do feel a certain amount of sincerity here. If this is a scum-KJ pleading his case, he's doing a pretty good job.
He puts off an Osie read/opinion though. Which isn't great considering they were still top suspect approaching deadline.
Finally does re-read and gives that opinion in #524. Conclusion is that Osie might be scum. He's seeing a strange progression on Osie's scum-reads (arguing why he thinks one person is scum while voting another, and then seeming to switch to a suspicion of DoTA from out of nowhere, finally flipping on KJ himself after initially saying he thought KJ was Town.) He excuses his earlier failure to read Osie as he just didn't want to because he's traditionally bad at it.
And, eh, I don't see too many red flags with this. I'm probably biased since I was one of the biggest Osie pushers, but what this isn't is simple bandwaggoning. Looks like some independent thought going on here.
He then makes an observation that probably doesn't serve him well if scum, which is that he doesn't think Proph could be scum with anyone BUT Osie at this point, given the way Proph is defending him. Doesn't think scum-Proph would go this hard defending an easy mis-yeet. Given scum KJ knows that this will be a mis-yeet, seems less likely he would want to cut off his ability to argue Proph is still scum later, not when he didn't have to.
And then he revises his opinion on DV towards the end of the day, saying he no longer thinks DV is scum. Not quite sure how this happened.
KJ appears to have made the same mistake I did about the deadline, but he realized it in time and was around for the deadline, indicating a willingness to vote for GJ/Osie or Last. Which is at least consistent. Then settles on GJ, remarking he thought he had more time. This still seems fair to me. The "counter-wagon" that was developing at the last minute was on Grape, and KJ didn't really say anything about that, which isn't great, but with the deadline, it's more understandable. I do note a lack of opinion on Grape for basically the entire day.
At the end of all this, I...actually mostly like Killjoy? I agree with some of his stuff, but even more than that, I like his thought processes, and I don't see anything malicious here. His whole Tone is also very natural and just appears unforced to me. It's not an enormous amount of content, but it's not a lurking scum amount of content.
Verdict: Could be Town!
Might work.
16 D1 posts, so, same logic applies here as to Cantrip's low post count.
First post is random RVS vote, fine.
He then starts in on Crossbell, and it's, also fine? He points out that Osie (and now I'm deciding I'm just going to say "Osie" from here on out because it's easier than "Crossbell") didn't really interact with me before casting his "serious" vote, and asks if other people's posts commenting on my "meta" have had any effect on this read. He doesn't care for Osie's explanation and then votes him in #139. I have no issues here. I thought fair points were made.
He then spends some time justifying a read in which he says he feels like - due to Osie and my interactions - we probably aren't a T/T pair, but either T/W or W/W pair. I don't quite follow the logic process here (he says, knowing it is incorrect). Seems like what he's saying is that we talked to each other for a bunch of posts, but in a way that didn't advance the game or that would help us figure each other out. This is kind of true, though it ignores the context, which primarily was me (1) thinking I had it figured out who Osie was, followed by (2) Osie implying it wasn't him, and (3) me (jokingly) going off on why he should have been the person I thought he was (who he actually was, but he was still trying to be deceptive about it.)
I guess I don't have all that much problem with this either. Two people making a lot of not-directly-game related posts in a row can look wrong, even if it is still very early in the game. Though his logic is off that it can't be T/T who do this (and he didn't say "can't" just that his "gut" said not T/T). I mean, the fact that one Town can do it ought to make it self-evident that two Town can. Regardless, I don't find it suspicious.
I also can't really fault him for poking at Osie, as I was doing pretty much the same thing. And it doesn't feel like he's piggybacking or bandwaggoning here.
DoTA promises some thoughts on other people in #306, and then, after some further prodding (from Proph - which looks good on him) finally gives some more thoughts in #437.
Grape - Think he's Town. Because he doesn't get "scum vibes" from his posts.
Wisp - Having a hard time reading. Maybe a little less volatile than he remembers Town-Wisp being. Just below null.
DV - Feels like antagonistic Town
Cantrip - Not a lot of posts, but every one has content. Thinks Cantrip is trying to figure out the game.
Proph - Also has a hard time reading. Thinks Proph/Wisp/Osie spend a lot of time talking to each other. Paranoia about scum deciding to go for top posters together.
Killjoy - Had an early Town read but now questioning. Because he has a bad post/content ratio.
Aaaaaannnnd, these are shallow, but okay? Nothing controversial here or beyond scum-range, but nothing sticks out as suspicious either.
He unvotes Osie when GJ replaces in, (#470, 7/2), but he is not impressed with GJ's posts and re-votes 2 posts later (#592, 7/5). I don't have issues with the vote here as such either. It was deadline time and a choice needed to be made. Osie was his top pick before, and GJ didn't move the needle enough (or at all?)
The worst thing about all this is his simple lack of presence. Similar to Cantrip, DoTA just was not around much on D1. He used the timezone difference as an excuse at least once. And then maybe work/business. But he's barely played. So, it's certainly possible he's coasting scum. But that said, I don't have too many issues with anything specific he's actually posted. Most of it reads fine, and I can even agree with a lot of it.
Verdict: Above Cantrip!
It is bad for two reasons: (1) Lurking is bad. But also (2) in this particular game, Osie had a lot of heat for a lot of the day and it never really went away. This is a situation that the Mafia would be fairly happy about, and (usually) hope to maintain. Not impossible for one of them to assume the White Knight position and strongly defend the wrongly accused (i.e. the Proph. gambit theory), but probably less likely than just being okay with the status quo. So, I'm reviewing Cantrip with that in mind and looking at how his posts would fit that hypothesis.
On the positive side, with his 11 posts, Cantrip did not spend a lot of them on meaningless fluff. First post was reasonably comprehensive, giving a thought on every player.
On Osie, he has Town-leaning, because he is a sucker for high posters (not unreasonable) and also suspects who he is and that he's in his town meta (kind of whatever, and apparently he was wrong about who he thought Osie was). On DV he just says: "I hate reading DV. Scumlean" which I don't understand.
He has mild Town leans on both Killjoy and DoTA, that I don't love for the stated reasons. On Killjoy appears to be another meta read and thinks he's showing his "town paranoid" self. On DoTa he says he thinks he's been trying to solve, and showed insight into Killjoy's mindset. I'll note here that DoTA was voting for Crossbell at this moment who appeared to be top town for Cantrip. Cantrip doesn't address that.
Mild townlean for Wisp because he feels Wisp is posting in a "careless" manner that would be harder for scum Wisp to fake. I probably disagree.
Grape and myself are both "Null" at this point. Grape because he has positive and Negative thoughts. Me because I haven't posted much.
Top scum is Proph at the beginning. I don't really have an issue with his early basis here, but I do have a small issue with the fact that this read - while mentioned a couple times - is never really argued. After his 1st post, Cantrip does not question Proph. Proph responds to him and seems to want to engage, but Cantrip kind of doesn't.
The worst part of Cantrip is that he just wasn't around. He voted Proph in his first post of the day and left it there the entire day - even though in his last post of the day he said it was actually feeling more like Town!Proph to him. He made many excuses for being busy/internet troubles. Basically hasn't really played yet, with no strong opinions expressed. And though he supposedly had Osie as a town-read, he most definitely did not attempt to defend him, or argue against his elimination. And that's certainly a possible scum play - i.e. say you think the Town is Town, but then sit back and watch while he's voted out and not do anything to try and stop it or suggest someone else.
I do like some of his smaller posts here and there. He makes some reasonable points when he's making points. He's just not doing it enough. Which means there's nothing here that I can grab onto and say "oh yeah, this guy's Town." His Town read of Osie and the end of day in particular (or lack of it, as the case may be) is a little worse looking. As is his lack of engagement with his supposed top suspect.
Verdict: Still in the pile.
Everyone gets a bio!
Some of these are going to take a lot longer than others. I think I'm starting with the easy ones.
Now, of course, the new set has dropped on MTGO/Arena and I just want to play it, so that's currently distracting me. But I won't be ignoring this game.
I totally blew it on the deadline. I thought I had another day. Yes I see now that Highroller literally announced we had like 50 minutes left two posts before my last, but I didn’t see it then. I was mentally in a “I still have 24 hours” headspace.
So, my bad there. I won’t claim I would have changed my position at the last minute, but I would have been around had I realized it.
I didn’t re-read anything during the night because I didn’t want to have wasted my time if I woke up dead today (recognizing that the chances of me living were dramatically improved by being incorrect on Osie/GJ). So, stuff starts this evening probably.
I may be able to check in via the phone during the day today when I’m not too busy, but going back and reviewing stuff is almost impossible.
First post I questioned was #20, where Crossbell asked Proph whether something LW said was a "mafia-slip" or not. And my question here is, why is he asking this question? Is it serious, or a joke? Does he really want to know this answer? Knowing this is Osie kind of makes it worse, because I feel like Osie has been around a long time and should "know" LW's game as much as Proph (maybe I'm horribly off base here?) It seems strange to me that he would know the players well enough to supposedly know that Proph might have insight on this particular point, but still not know the actual answer himself. I asked Osie for a clarification on exactly what he meant with this post, and the answer I got was kind of weak.
Then he placed his first "serious" vote in #61, and it was on me. He (of course) did not say why. Those kind of votes tend to bug me in general, though I know Town do it, so it's not the fact he didn't explain the vote as much as the fact that there was no basis for making a "serious" vote on me there to begin with. I had only made some silly RVS posts up to that point. I know some people think they can really peg someone off even one RVS post, but...those people are dumb.
Now he will eventually "explain" it, when he does his big read-list post, and it's apparently this:
I could have a field day here, and write an essay on why every part of this is either incorrect or makes zero sense, but, shorter version is that (1) I did not need to "explain" my RVS vote, any more than anyone "explains" a RVS vote which was made for a silly reason. I said I was going to vote for a Blue card. Because Blue sucks (which, true, but not the point). This appears to be a comment on "defensiveness" in general, which, he I guess thinks is bad, but if that is the case, he's just wrong on both points.
(2) "Feels awkward" is, of course, an impossible standard to argue, in as much as he's supposedly giving his personal feeling about a post(s). I mean, I was not feeling awkward. I know this. I was trying to be humorous. What is "awkward" anyway? If he had tried to actually break this feeling down and explain what he believed to be awkward we might have been able to have a conversation there, but, he doesn't do that.
(3) Me "playing defense." This simply makes no sense at all? What is he even talking about? The fact that Proph asked me (humorously, I thought) why I didn't include Timetwister and I gave him a humorous answer? There was literally nothing else there for him to have even been talking about, but it makes zero sense as a comment or explanation.
So, this whole post just looked completely fabricated.
I already did a point-by-point of the big read list post itself. I thought it was bad.
Something to talk about, I suppose, is the idea that this is standard play from Osie, i.e. pushing players early and trying to sort quickly and throwing out big read-lists with little justifications behind them. I can't say how true this all is or not. I know the last game we played which has been mentioned was on MU and (as Town) he also threw out a read list of players (in his very first post, no less), but I did go and look at that one, at least, and I thought it was qualitatively different from what he did here. I'm not calling him scum because it was different. I'm just not giving him any "town meta" points in as much as that might be a thing. There's also the fact Osie said he does that as scum, but I guess we'll get to that.
Crossbell got questioned by at least two other people regarding his "Axel seems awkward" point, and these were his responses to those questions:
"As I had explained." He never explained anything. Plus, even if this was somehow an accurate observation (which it wasn't) it would mean jack squat as far as my alignment - unless you prescribe to the mafia theory that everything is meta, and if someone does something different in this game from something they did in another game - where they were scum or town - then they are probably a different alignment in this game. Which is a terrible theory.
He then clarified further: "I said that they were tonally awkward" (he didn't) "It's a toneread." Which is, to me, not quite the same thing, but it seems easier to defend "toneread" as opposed to having to point out specific posts that were objectively "awkward."
He also seemed to beg off not actually having tried to interact with me directly, question me, prod me, about anything, with the line "Axel hasn't been around to interact with." Which was both (1) objectively untrue, and (2) irrelevant, you can still ask me questions even if I'm not around at that moment.
Osie then did his "meta" analysis on me in 153 which I haven't said anything about yet. He seems to be trying to make the point that - in other games where I was Town - I was less jokey, and/or I usually got more serious within 100 posts (like this was some kind of a magic number), but this game was different. Putting aside the different /= scummy issue, it was a completely ridiculous "meta" read to begin with. When I "get serious" depends 100%, entirely, on what is happening in the game at that time.
I feel like Osie was maybe getting some heat at this point on multiple fronts. And that's when he started getting cryptic and suggesting this might all be part of some larger plan. When suggested that I rarely do much in the early game, his response:
Note his claim of "pushing." Yet, he has not "pushed" me directly even once. He's put me at the bottom of his readlist, saying I felt awkward, and that it's a toneread...and that's it. Zero questions to me at all. In what universe is this "pushing?" Ah, but he has "reasons" you see. Except you won't because he never explains what those reasons are.
And the worst one, when LW remarked that - if Town - he thought Osie would be more frustrated:Ah ha! It's all part of the plan! I see.
Wait, no I don't.
Incidentally, his read on me changes later. In later posts he will claim that his problem with me is NOT that I was "awkward," but that I have not been doing enough to progress the game. And he claims he has been trying to "push" me to make me more active. Which, I don't even know how to respond to that, except it's a stupid retcon/revisionist history and objectively not true.
That's enough of that.
Seems like you're saying they just talked to each other too much, period.
I mean, from a statistical standpoint it is probably unlikely, but I definitely am not ruling it out.
And, dude, the "dazzling" thing is just saying that nothing you posted, in the few post you did make, screamed "Townie" to me. Which, they might have? It's happened before. There was no expectation there, however. It was not a demand that you dazzle me or else. It was an observation.