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The Magic Market Index for Jan 12, 2018
 
Treasure Cruisin' Tempered Steel
 
The Magic Market Index for Jan 5, 2018
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™

    @ALL: What'd people think about me lying about my choice to lie about my ability? I tried some misdirection, but not sure if it ended up being counter productive at all.
    No

    It is possible that I have a stronger aversion to these things than most, but a large part of my game is analyzing the claims and deciding what fits/sounds right vs. what doesn't. Your claim didn't sound right and didn't seem to fit with what had been claimed so far, and was the primary reason I turned on you. I'm also not sure what we really gained. Like, I can almost understand leaving out the last ability. You would have no reason to think the Mafia had a role-cop and knew it already, and you could have theoretically got them with a surprise Doc protect, I suppose. But making up a 5 BP cost for the terribad "delay-a-kill for 1/2 a day" ability just muddied the waters for me.

    I can't rightly say what I would have felt if you had claimed truthfully, but I feel like there was a much higher chance I would have believed it. Given we lynched Kaba that day anyway and then you got NK'd, I don't think it ended up affecting too much long term. But it might have.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Also this game was a complete monster.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    I thought Tom and Phoenix played excellent games. Certainly good enough to win. And the loss was a combination of some bad luck, some unfortunately lurky partners and, yes, a few good town moments here and there. But I wouldn't say it was because of an overall game imbalance. Like, what are the odds of Jenna hitting Phoenix like that on the very first night? And that was the only thing the town had going that night. You have to credit Jenna for making a good call, but it certainly wasn't overpowered. I don't think she had another track until like the end of the game when it barely mattered anymore.

    And then, the odds DBS hits Kaba on N2? Again, good call? Bad luck? Certainly some of both.

    LW giving Jenna a BP that night was open information, he even said he was going to do it.

    Az was maybe an every other day Doc at best. And Joe basically wasn't anything until he got to 9 BP, which meant N3 at the very earliest if he betrayed everyone while they still allied him, and no one messed with it.

    I don't know. I thought most of the Town roles were fairly bad, as these things go. Which is not to say that the Mafia roles were better, just that it wasn't the super imbalance you maybe felt like it was, because of how it played out.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    GG guys!
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on 2017 MTGS Mafia Awards
    Quote from Azrael »
    Also, nominating Xyre for Best Troll, 2017:

    Quote from Xyre »
    That, or you can hang around for another one of Azrael's surprises. Much like this one.

    Waiting, always waiting. Never posting, and (almost) never voting. Was the wait worth it? You tell me.

    Goodnight, sunshine.

    Vote Axelrod
    Vote Axelrod
    Vote Axelrod.


    Xyre was not actually a living player in the game. For those not in the know, the above is just about a word for word copy of the post that caused to Axel to lose Sin City Mafia, about thirteen years ago. In Sin City, only two players remained on the living player list at the start of the final day, leading to much bafflement, confusion, and hysteria, until a hidden player suddenly appeared and voted...and infamously lost the game for the town. Which Axel still hasn't forgiven me for. Xyre decided to fake being a hidden multi-voter in Disinheritance with Axel as one of the three surviving players left in endgame, because it was just too evil for him to resist after I did a call-back to the classic Sin City scene for the start of day flavor.
    I have no idea what this is you speak of.

    And I didn't play enough last year (just Disinheritance?) to really vote for anyone/game. Maybe I can play more this year. We'll see....
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Vote: Cythare

    I don't have time for anything else. This night could at least potentially be interesting.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    I forgot Iso. Here.

    Iso was the Forth vote on Kaba @5844, after DBS claimed the RB. My feeling is, eh, it's okay. Not slam-dunk full of towniness, but okay.

    Next note is @5945. This is after Terry's claim. Iso says he's onboard with Tom's "Lynch Az" plan (bad), but also says he kind of wants to put the Kaba slot out of it's misery (good). So this is a mixed bag.

    Then I've got a note that says Iso shows how little he cares about this game @6040, and that I guess he could feel this way as either town or scum. I have no idea what Iso said in that post, and I'm not looking it up right now.

    I do also concede Terry’s point that Iso’s counter-claim of Vig, but immediate retraction is something less likely to have come from scum. I don’t think it’s impossible, but less likely.

    And then Iso volunteering to be the target of a role that finds out how much BP you have in #6239 is somewhat +town, though it’s not a particularly dangerous thing for a scum to suggest if they haven’t been lying about their BP status and/or have deduced there is no BP checker in this game.

    Iso had what I'm calling the correct reaction to Kaba's claim, but he didn't vote for Kaba - just criticized it. I think that one's fairly NAL.

    Then I don't have anything more about him. Like he was absent for the actual lynch maybe?

    Iso's not making a big impression this game.


    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    LnGrrr:

    My first note about LnGrrr isn't until #6005. This is way late in the day, after all the claims. In this post, he just says his reads are "crap" and doesn't give an opinion about anyone or any of the claims. So that wasn't great.

    His first vote comes at #6038, and it's for...Azrael. It appears to be mostly based on Azrael not using his ability the night before. I'm again underwhelmed by the lack of comment on the Kaba/Terry/DBS situation. One could view this as him taking the default, "just wait and see who dies" position. Which as I've argued I think would be the most likely scum position.

    LnGrr then makes his big long PBPA post on Az at #6124. I’m not super impressed by it. It’s a lot of summary and not a lot of analysis. I know I said a similar thing about Killjoy, but I still think the point has merit. There’s a little bit of analysis at the end, but it’s a very little bit for a very long post.

    Not sure I buy the “confusion" of #6127 (LnGrrr is asking what happens if I die or not and who it clears).

    He does, however, have the correct reaction in #6417, after Kaba makes his claim, which is Vote Kaba. This is not beyond the realm of scum bussing, but it is perhaps a little earlier than scum would want to bus, before seeing if more people were maybe going to buy Kaba's claim. It's after Terry's hard smackdown though, so less of an indicator than it might have been.

    LnGrrr does, however, appear to bite on the Az. derail attempt. In post #6636 he pops back up and votes for...Iso. This is kind of a bad look. Like, he has no idea what is going on in the game. So, scum or clueless Town?

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Okay, I'm going to dump these notes on Phoenix and LnGrrr, and then I'm probably voting for Cyth. I do not see a scenario where letting him live is a good idea. It's possibly not as informative lynch as Az would be, but also less of a gamble.

    Phoenix:

    Phoenix was the first person to vote for Kaba after DBS's RB claim in #5825. So that's positive. Not that a scum would be incapable of this move, but positive.

    Next post of interest is #5759, this is after Terry has come in and claimed the alternate explanation for no NK. Phoenix does a logical breakdown and seems to correctly conclude that the ability Terry claimed is not consistent with what Az had claimed. He's also supporting killing an AWOL Kaba rather than waiting around for a replacement. All this is Town behavior. Basically, if Phoenix is scum he's really good. The problem is: he was tracked to the scene of a kill. And his claim is a bizarre one I've never seen. The one sort of explains the other, but it's still a fishy/odd role. This continues to be my only hesitation about him.

    He does come to a conclusion I don't agree with in #6085, where he says that my dying would support Terry's claim and move Terry up in his estimation, whereas my living would move Terry down. That's backwards from how I saw it, and in hindsight, this is a position that scum could easily take, knowing that I was not going to die. He does reiterate that he was leaning towards just lynching the AWOL Kaba slot though, which is again +

    He expresses suspicion of Kaba's claim in #6450, though I disagree somewhat on the basis. He seems to feel that Kaba - with that claim - ought to have counterclaimed Jenna's tracker claim. I don't know that I would have felt that way, if I had the role Kaba claimed to have.

    In #6459, Kaba has just been put to L-1 by DBS, and Phoenix unvotes (but I'm not sure who he was actually voting at that moment, if it was Kaba or not). But I don't have an issue with his reasons, which appear to be that he wants to question Az. more before the day ends, get his reads, and pin him down about what he is or is not going to do that night.

    Phoenix does not go for the Az derail, strongly pushing for the Kaba lynch in #6644. Which has to be positive, though I will concede that he could be looking to set up for an Az. mislynch today if he was scum. Which could be what Tom is doing also. This is the Phoenix/Tom scum-buddy conspiracy theory.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Quote from osieorb18 »
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Clearly he has a Neighborizer ability, but he's been pretty cavalier about using it. Personally, I would worry about going too low on BP, but Osie doesn't seem to have those concerns. I particularly wondered about his interaction with Phoenix. Phoenix supposedly has NO use for BP. And he's got a lot of it. And yet, when paired, they chose to Ally each other, when it seems like it would have made a lot more sense for Osie to Betray just to get a boost.


    To be fair, I was worried about being at 1 BP, but I was convinced that Phoenix was town, and therefore was more ready to believe him. If I had felt otherwise, I would have betrayed. Similarly, being at 1 plus actively not trusting Azrael meant that I wanted to betray from the get-go. The fact that Azrael was encouraging me to do so implies that he might have known ahead of time about the BP switcher, actually, and been considering setting me up to have it be used on me.
    No no, the point is, if Phoenix is Town, and you are Town, it is strictly better for him to Ally and you to Betray. Because he has no use for the BP. This would be different if he was low, but he isn't.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    tomsloger
    Cythare
    Iso
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Phoenix-Fire

    It is also somewhat interesting to me that within this 7 group there is a strong anti-Azrael coalition of Tom/Iso/Osie/Phoenix. Given my feelings that these people probably aren't scum with Az (less Iso than the others though). What does that mean? Az is scum, and the other scum are then: Cyth and LnGrrr (and/or Iso) purely by default?

    Or, Az is Town, and the scum are trying really hard to kill him.

    One of these scenarios certainly seems simpler than the other. And lynching Cyth. could potentially be useful here. Because if Cyth is scum, it does fit right with the Az-scum scenario.

    But if Cyth flips Town, what does that mean? I have trouble coming up with enough people to be scum-buddies with Az in that scenario. It would almost have to be LnGrrr and Iso (in a huge mutual bus for a long time - until recently, I suppose).

    I'm just wildly speculating out loud now. Don't mind me....
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Here's what I got on Osie:

    His first post of D3 was interesting for what it didn't say more than for what it did. Osie had no reaction to the fact there was no Night-kill. I find that weird. My gut says Town is more likely to say something than nothing, because Town is going to be relieved/happy whereas Scum is going to be confused and cautious. But that's just a gut feeling.

    In #5851, after DBS's claim, Osie declares he is "not opposed" to a Kaba lynch, but he is keeping his vote on whoever he was voting for (Tom/Terry?). That could be scum reaction.

    But then, he almost immediately changes his mind and votes for Kaba in #5853. This was 5th vote, I believe. What changed? It appears he read my post of #5838 in the interim and was persuaded the odds favored scum-Kaba. Hrmmmmm. Again, I can't call this a super-Townie reaction, coming relatively late, but at least he's voting correctly now.

    But then, #5975, this is after Terry's claim, Osie comes back and Unvotes Kaba. All he says is that he doesn't like the wagon. Bad dog. This could certainly be a scum-buddy opportunistically jumping off.

    He then posts a lot of unhelpful GIFs. This isn't scummy per-se. But it ain't useful either.

    He gives a big reads post in #6067, which is + just for doing it. But his biggest scum read appears to be Tom. And his post has DBS/Terry/Kaba all under suspicion to some degree. He then has some thoughts on Tom/Terry/Iso/Az that my notes say I cannot even parse.

    Expands on his Tom scum-read in #6077. The crux of it appears to be that when Tom isn't shinning through as Town and hasn't been night-killed, it means he's scum. Don't like the meta read here, regardless of my opinion on Tom. It's kind of the way he's doing it. Like, he's not arguing that Tom is scum because Tom hasn't been doing much this game. Or has been actively scummy. Or he's scum because his reads have been wrong. It's he's scum because he's just not more obviously Town. And also still alive. I feel like this is the kind of scum read one could make on a scum-buddy. Just because it's super weak attack for a scum to make on a Town.

    As I think I noted before, Osie #6136 strongly suggests that Osie is not scum-buddy with Az. And I think it looks worse for Osie-scum if Az were to flip Townie, given that Kaba was the alternate.

    And then, I note in #6370 that Osie seems to flip his opinion on Az a little too quickly. I'm not sure why he's even engaging Az and responding the way he's responding here. Almost feels like he's trying to buddy Az.

    Then, Kaba claimed and Osie's first post after the claim said nothing about it. That's -- I feel like Town would be more likely to express an opinion there.

    He doesn't vote Kaba until #6419, I think, after several have now commented on how bad Kaba's claim was. Later he remarks that he is "down" with lynching Kaba, but ALSO says he's "not opposed" to a DBS lynch down the line. Which, frankly, is not a reasonable position to take. DBS role-blocking Kaba is not a scum-scum interaction.

    Osie was onboard for the Az derail. Unvoting Kaba in #6627 and voting for Tom. He does note that he would go back to voting Kaba before a No Lynch, but this is kind of weak.

    Osie ultimately delivers the hammer in #6649. Not sure how to read his "**** it" reasoning. Like, what did that mean? He wasn't sure, but "**** it?" Hammering scum is good, but this could still have been a bus vote. Osie wavered a lot.

    Not too much I saw that was Town+ for Osie on D3, at least as far as his interactions around Kaba. I also have a note, that of people who could be lying or at least leaving stuff out of their claims, Osie is right there at the top, along with Phoenix. Clearly he has a Neighborizer ability, but he's been pretty cavalier about using it. Personally, I would worry about going too low on BP, but Osie doesn't seem to have those concerns. I particularly wondered about his interaction with Phoenix. Phoenix supposedly has NO use for BP. And he's got a lot of it. And yet, when paired, they chose to Ally each other, when it seems like it would have made a lot more sense for Osie to Betray just to get a boost.

    So, Phoenix/Osie possibly a pair. Osie not with AZ.

    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Seeing if I can simplify here:

    Shinichi
    tomsloger
    Jenna Tolaria
    lastwhisper
    Cythare Megiddo
    dawningbluesky
    Iso
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Phoenix-Fire
    Axelrod

    We assume there are at least three scum left here. I have seen no basis to believe there is a neutral in this game. The people I am taking off the list first:

    Me: you can fight me on this if you wish.

    DBS: for obvious reasons. She RBed Kaba on the night there was no kill. Kaba was scum. Town or ultimate gambit. And as far as the gambit possibility, she didn't even vote for Kaba initially, which seems to point away from that even very small possibility.

    Last Whisper: for almost equally obvious reasons. Unless he is part of a 3-way team with Jenna and Tom, he saved Jenna's life last night when the scum attempted to kill her.

    Jenna: again, unless there's a big gambit happening here, the scum tried to kill her last night. Now, LW doesn't have to be part of that gambit for her to be scum, in this case it's just Tom, but it still seems rather unlikely. Also, she claimed Tracker and fingered Phoenix in such a way as to make her very unlikely to be scum.

    Leaving:

    Shinichi
    tomsloger
    Cythare
    Iso
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Phoenix-Fire

    Of this group, the one I find the least likely to be scum is Shin. It is partly his claim, and partly the way he has played. Not that he has been super-correct in his reads or anything like that, but (1) He allied DBS the night DBS Rbed Kaba, when a scum could easily have justified Betraying her there. (2) he was also on the Kaba Lynch. He's also been arguing with DBS soooooo much. I feel like 1/2 the thread is just those two. Seems a bit much for scum. Though that's not really definitive or anything. Anyway, I'm taking him out, at least for now.

    tomsloger
    Cythare
    Iso
    Azrael
    LnGrrrR
    osieorb18
    Phoenix-Fire

    Now we have a group of 7 people, with at least three assumed scum in it. These are odds we can work with.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    I've still got some notes for Osie, Phoenix, Iso and (a very few) on LnGrrr. But I'm not sure when I can post them. Go to go right now.
    Posted in: Mafia
  • posted a message on Zero Escape Mafia - GAME OVER - No More Complex Motives™
    Now Tom:

    Tom starts by noting (after DBS has claimed the RB, and Terry has asked people to refrain from voting Kaba until Kaba responds) that Terry's request is the only reason he isn't voting for Kaba. This is okay, I guess. Not really alignment indicative.

    Then, after Terry makes his claim, Tom posts again in #5930. He says he believes Terry 100%, which I guess I have a problem with because Terry's claim was inherently unbelievable. He then goes on to push the "wait and see what happens" solution to the NK dilemms, which I am arguing would likely be the scum-desired outcome. His vote goes to Azrael. I've also previously said why I think this means that Tom and Az are not scum/scum together, because, knowing that Kaba was dead meat tomorrow if we let him live today, the scum would probably not be pushing for another, different, scum-buddy as the lynch today, setting up back-to-back scum lynches. There is still the T/T possibility, which would be very bad for us, but can't be ruled out yet.

    Got a note at #5989 where Tom says that he misread Terry's claim and thought Terry was claiming a "threshold" ability that he needed to be a 5 to use, but which didn't cost anything. Interestingly, though this is not what Terry claimed, it was, in fact, what the ability actually was. If Tom really misread it (though I don't see why he should have misread it) I guess it's slightly more understandable how he could have said he believed Terry 100%. Tom's response now is to say he's "thinking." Presumably this is because I have posted and suggested that Terry actually killed me rather than "delayed" my death.

    The results of this thinking are that Tom still thinks we should just wait and see if I live/die before deciding what to do about Kaba, i.e. the scum-desired outcome. Also made a note about how Tom bragged about his power-wolfing technique....Hrmmmmm. This would be a much better point, I feel if Terry had not also been arguing strongly for it at the same time. I can't say that a Townie wouldn't feel this way. Though Terry had the additional information of knowing that he really did target me, whereas all of us were having to take that claim on faith. Sigh.

    Tom starts to get better after that, however. My note says that his point #6112 is not bad.

    And then, I thought #6118 and #6119 were good where he argued (to the people who were thinking about lynching Terry) that even if they thought that, then Kaba was still the better choice. Now, he's not voting Kaba, but he's not taking a prime opportunity to shade Terry either. His position is that Terry's claim would have been very dumb for a scum to have made. He does go on to suggest that Terry could be a target tomorrow if it turns out he didn't stop a kill, but he's not exactly encouraging that position. It's net + thinking.

    Tom is still being fairly logical in #6261. I can't find a lot of fault in most of what Tom posts, and everything seems reasonable. But I still don't trust him either. Perhaps it comes from being burned by scum-Tom before.

    On the other hand, #6395 isn't amazing. Right after Kaba comes back. Tom says he didn't wake up soon enough to "reaction" test Kaba and Kaba is probably all catching up now. Suggesting that if he had only been around earlier, he would have done...something. But now he's doing nothing.

    Kaba then makes his claim in #6398.

    Tom's reaction to the claim is in #6453 and it's fairly neutral. Says he still wants to wait and see who dies. But says Kaba "could" be scum. This could be a scum-buddy reaction. Not definitive.

    By #6547 he's pretty much conceding that Kaba will likely flip scum. And seems fine with the lynch. Seems like he's partly basing this on Kaba's claiming and then disappearing again which just looks like caught scum.

    But #6637 has to be another + for Tom. This is after the Az derail attempt is in full swing. Tom tries to focus back on Kaba and says not to let Az distract us from the Kaba lynch. Votes for Kaba. So, if he were scum, and seeing Townie Az go all-in on defending Kaba, there would have to be a strong temptation to either (1) go along with it - go back to previously expressed position that we should wait and see, or at least (2) stay out of it, and see if anyone else might bite. Rather than do the opposite and push full bore for your scum-buddy lynch. So it's + for Tom.

    This is slightly complicated by two factors (1) Tom and Az have been at each other's throats much of the day, so it's possible scum-Tom feels he can't decide to go along with the suggestion of a player he's actively arguing is scum and (2) there was still a lot of momentum for Kaba lynch and scum-Tom might have just seen the writing on the wall, and decided to switch to full-bus-mode, planning to use Az's wrong defense of Kaba against him today. So, again, this isn't quite as strong a point for Tom as it might have been. But it's still a point. Like there was still a chance that Kaba might have got away there. Maybe not a strong chance, but a chance, which Tom's vote/push make a whole lot less likely. Reaffirms my point they aren't scum together.

    Perhaps not surprisingly, Tom looks better than Az, overall, at least as far as D3 analysis. That may not be fair to Az. Perhaps if I looked at D2, Az would come off a whole lot better than Tom for that day. But I do think the days we lynch scum are stronger indicators than the other days, in general.
    Posted in: Mafia
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