I just think that you're overrating some aspects of Blue (its creatures and removal) and underrating its oppressive draw engines and cheap/free counterspells.
Let's start here and work backwards. What I didn't want to do was repeat what others have said, so I certainly [over?] emphasized some points and ignored others. I didn't mention things like Mystic Remora or Consecrated Sphinx because those have been talked to death. What hasn't been covered much is the "why" these cards win: mana efficiency.
White crushes Blue on the creature front with powerful + disruptive + cheap threats such as Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, Containment Priest, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Aven Mindcensor, Grand Abolisher, Hushwing Gryff and a host of others.
Excluding Aven Mindcensor, never in my life have I ever cared about these cards in a multiplayer setting.
When it comes to removal you're overrating every non-Cyclonic Rift mass bounce spell. They're all "fine" but they're not on the same level as cards like Toxic Deluge or Pernicious Deed.
The big thing is living long enough be the last one standing. Blue removal does that. Do other colors do it "better" in some respects? Sure, but who cares if it's already good enough to win?
Mystic Remora, Accumulated Knowledge + Intuition, Thirst for Knowledge, Rhystic Study, Trade Secrets, Fact or Fiction, Consecrated Sphinx, Recurring Insight, Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time and more all disagree with that assessment. It's not even remotely debatable as far as I'm concerned. Blue is the unquestioned king of card draw and it's not close.
Whether you draw 14 over two turns with Recurring Insight or 10 with Soul's Majesty, who cares? Both are a ton of cards.
My point is this: I'm an 80/20 guy. The vast majority of your wins will come from surviving long enough to playing the 100+ brutally overpowered cards and combos. The difference between Fact or Fiction and Harmonize is negligible in the face of slamming a Prophet of Kruphix on the board. What matters is that both are mana efficient enough to be in the conversation.
I notice you're not really addressing nonblue sweepers, either as answers or as problems. Care to elaborate? I've never ever been sad to draw Wrath of God, and a lot of the cards you praise for being warm bodies are actually at a disadvantage to a simple sweeper.
Of course you're not sad to draw Wrath of God. It's a fantastic card! Non-blue sweepers are perfectly fine, and oftentimes better than blue ones (Hallowed Burial,Blasphemous Act, Decree of Pain). Part of what I tried, and failed, to achieve in the post was to break down highly outdated notions such as "blue has bad creatures" or "blue has bad removal".
Regarding vulnerability to sweepers, I generally don't care about them. Untap and throw down a Scute Mob and Managorger Hydra. You're basically threatening death again for someone next turn. Card advantage is trivial after 20 years of printing. Blue, green, and black all draw cards like crazy. Take your pick of ridiculous: Greater Good, Momentous Fall, Garruk, Primal Hunter, Life's Legacy, etc etc etc. I'd argue that at power draw, green > blue! Oracle of Mul Daya also nearly guarantees that you won't draw a land again. It effectively increases the spell density of your deck from 60% to 100%.
Card advantage in multiplayer is further diminished when there are dozens of cards that read "delete player from the game". Overwhelming Stampede, Mirrorweave, Mass Mutiny, Hatred, etc. Since it takes one card to kill a player (or the table), how many cards do you actually need?
I'm known in my circles for using "bad" cards. My opponents have Black Lotuses, Time Walks, Ancestral Recalls, etc, and I don't. And yet game after game the entire 5-7 player FFA table has to gang up on me or I will win. Instead of looking at the individual power level of the cards, we have to focus on what really wins the game and what will take us there: mana efficiency.
About me: 2K composite rated player when I was active in the tournament scene. Spike.
If I don't mention something, it's because Prid3 already covered it in his excellent guides that he really needs to compile into an e-book and sell.
Competitive Multiplayer Truths - Facts don't care about your feelings
If you want to build fun and quirky decks, just stop reading.
Multiplayer isn't a "fair" format. The primary factor in multiplayer games is time. Games will end with degeneracy one way or another. Infinite turns/mana, 30+ global damage, 10 20/20 tramplers, and getting teamed are all commonplace. 6 mana cards not named "Primeval Titan" or "Consecrated Sphinx" are hard to justify because they are too slow. 7+ mana cards that don't win immediately have to at least kill off or cripple some people who were threatening to win this turn. 7 mana is the cutoff because it's around this point where people will be casting ridiculous stuff like Tooth and Nail, Biorhythym, Cyclonic Rift, or some infinite combo. Tapping out for Avenger of Zendikar and passing turn looks real dumb compared to what your opponents will be doing.
I don't care that your group has a banlist, games will end by degeneracy. 20 years of printing cards means that are too many devastaing combos and synergies out there to ban. Multiplayer isn't fair.
Your deck colors will be U/x if you want to win. This is non-negotiable. Someone forgot to tell Wizards that blue shouldn't be the best at nearly everything.
Blue also has the best removal: bounce. With things like Persist, Indestructible, Regenerating, and Undying, "destroy" effects are lackluster. And for many decks, creatures in the graveyard are even better than in hand because reanimation effects are mana efficient. Whelming Wave, Cyclonic Rift, and Displacement Wave (read: Pernicious Deed) don't even care about Hexproof/Shroud/Protection. No you don't care about your opponents reusing their Mulldrifter again, because the game is ending soon because of degeneracy.
The Multani problem
Big, dumb, non-haste creatures are the worst things you can do with your time. Multani, Maro-Sorcerer will routinely be 40/40 or larger and he is completely unplayable as an attacker. If you're comboing him with Pandemonium or something, that's different. But in multiplayer games, too much can happen between this turn and your next. Now take that logic farther: if a 40/40 shroud for 6 is unplayable, does creature size for non-haste, non-evasion creatures actually matter? No.
Yes Multani gets rid of a person who can't seem to field a creature. But in terms of actually winning the game, Multani isn't going to get you there over Tooth and Nail, Enter the Infinite, Insurrection, etc.
Here's a short, not all encompassing, list of easy multiplayer kill cards:
Most of these just require random dorks and standard good cards you're probably already using. Not a lot of complicated setup: just cast and win. Some, like Bloodchief Ascension, Insurrection, and Dragonstorm, require a little effort but are well worth it.
While someone plays Voltron with Thrun, the Last Troll, another player cast Waste Not and Windfall, drawing their deck, cast Exsanguinate for 10+, and put 30 power worth of 2/2's on the board. I can't emphasize it enough: big dumb creatures are an awful plan in multiplayer.
Expected mana over the course of the game
If a game goes to an average of 10 turns and you gain a mana every turn, you will have 1+2+3...+10= 55 mana for the entire game. Obviously you will sometimes have more due to things like Gaea's Cradle, but sometimes you will have less due to missed land drops. You will also not use all your mana every turn. So this 55 mana is probably closer to 45 mana.
When viewed in this light, you can ask yourself better questions:
Is spending 10 mana (~20% of the total mana for the game!) on Batterskull + equip really going to get me there?
Is spending 9 mana to draw 4 cards with Mind's Eye really better than Tidings? Or better than Stroke of Genius? Or Promise of Power or Harmonize?
Mana is the limiting factor of multiplayer and all cards should be evaluated accordingly. Raw power level of the cards is a distant second.
Why not go full combo?
Full combo decks are generally vulnerable in some way, and if they aren't then the table just solves that problem by piledriving you at the start of each game. Obvious combo pieces like Alluren or Mind Over Matter will tip off the table quite quickly.
Sleepers
Mask of the Mimic: You will see the same creatures over and over in multiplayer, meaning you can easily plan for this card to be a Clone for one mana. At the worst, you can duplicate your best creature. Or sacrifice your creture in response to removal or a steal effect. Wonderful utility and absurd power level for a one mana instant. Trading in your Sea Gate Oracle for a Primeval Titan is commonplace.
Vexing Sphinx: Creatures in multiplayer only last a round or three. Blue can have problems in the early game shoring up defense while looking for later plays. Since you can order the age counter and discard upkeeps, you can put a counter on first to draw an extra card before it dies due to not paying discard upkeep. You're basically renting this creature for two turns for 3 mana since you draw as many cards as you discard. It's fantastic card filtering and early defense for a color that loves both. Eats early planeswalkers too.
Illusory Angel: Like Plumeveil, but it attacks. Instead of Fog Bank, this guy can eat planeswalkers as well. The 3 mana investment is so low that it's easy to throw down early (T2: Sol Ring -> Angel) and obsoletes a lot of annoying early aggression.
Deep-Sea Kraken: 6/6 unblockable for 3. In blue. Dodges your T4 Whelming Wave or someone's Wrath of God. Good at thinning the field or quickly removing planeswalkers.
Magus of the Library: Better than Library of Alexandria. No joke. Library of Alexandria is like stone raining yourself since you can't tap it both for mana and cards at the same time. So anyone who puts out a library gets attacked immediately. They spend cards defending themselves, and presto: no 7 cards to draw with, or they eat 10+ damage and can be picked off. Magus is a mana dude with legit upside of drawing. Later he also chumps.
In a duel, you can afford to Stone Rain yourself, draw some cards, and catch up later. In multiplayer, you fall too far behind.
Panglacial Wurm: Fetchlands (and their Mirage block counterparts) can be reused to grab a 9/5 trample at instant speed. It turns a lot of dead ramp effects into something useful later on. It's also handy with Crop Rotation, Worldly Tutor, Mystical Tutor, and Vampiric Tutor. One in the deck is plenty. You can also bluff him in other games if you decide to take him out.
Forbidden Orchard: Any color of mana you want, with zero drawback. All of the damage those 1/1's deal is less damage you'll have to deal.
Sheltering Ancient: Better than Tarmogoyf in multiplayer. Yes I hear you laughing. Goyf not only gets chumped, he doesn't create escalating problems for your opponents. A non-evasion creature is nearly useless in multiplayer (see: Multani, Maro-Sorcerer). You can choose to not pay the upkeep if you want, but creatures don't usually last more than a few rounds anyway.
Æther Gale: Blue Hex that also also hits planeswalkers, artifacts, and enchantments. WTF Wizards? You spend 5 mana to remove 30 mana worth of permanents.
Profaner of the Dead: Yet another one way board wipe for blue and great sacrifice outlet for stolen creatures. Plague Wind costs 9 for black, but Blue gets several options that cost 4, 5 (Æther Gale), or 7 (Cyclonic Rift, Scourge of Fleets). The amount of unfair multiplayer blue cards is shocking.
Mirrorweave: Blue Overrun, except way better because you can use it defensively. Immediately upgrade all your guys into Primeval Titans and attack. Can also be used politically to eliminate someone(s) from the game.
Removal is only as good as the target you're using it on. Bouncing a 2 mana guy with Unsummon is atrocious. Even Path to Exile on that guy is terrible. Bouncing a 4 mana guy that they are trying to equip a sword to is a 9-1 mana blowout.
Massacre Wurm: Often kills a player or two outright upon cast or after a board wipe. Cloning him is pretty great too.
Sangromancer, Geth's Grimoire: Both of these add tremendous value for very little investment. Watch at all the natural discard that happens in a game. People discard to spells (Thirst for Knowledge), because they over-draw, because they are mana-screwed, or because of forced discard by someone else. There will be some times where these cards aren't great, but the ceilings on them are fantastic.
Jace Beleren: For 3 mana, you draw 6 cards. That one extra card you give the table isn't of much consequence. This is the best Jace for pure card drawing.
Krosan Tusker: One of the best draw spells, and it's not even blue!
Creeperhulk: A walking Overrun that is easier to use than Kamahl, Fist of Krosa. 20 life isn't a lot, and Overrun on T7 is often overkill for one player but not enough for two. Putting 4 mana to turn two mana dudes into 15 trampling power on T6 is usually enough because of fetchlands and other incidental damage. The body on Creeperhulk and mana requirements are so much better than Kamahl as well.
Careful Consideration: People talk about Fact or Fiction and somehow leave this one off of the list. It's basically a FoF but you get to choose exactly what you keep and where everything goes! The pseudo sorcery aspect of it can be a bonus or not, depending on the deck. It also says "draw", which interacts better with cards like Chasm Skulker / Abundance.
Dack's Duplicate: Best clone ever. All the degenerate crap your opponent wanted to do, you got to do a turn earlier. And for cheaper.
Moment's Peace: A Time Walk that you can discard. Fog effects are usually terrible, but sometimes you have to buy that one more turn or two to set up. This one makes the cut because you can discard it and not lose value.
Savor the Moment: At it's worst, it's Explore. At it's best it gives you great value from planeswalkers and effectively gives haste to the guys you cast. One example: Waste Not -> Windfall degeneracy -> Savor the Moment -> win.
Submerge: Someone will have a forest, don't worry. In response to your Primeval Titan search, let's put him on the top of the deck. GG NO RE.
Aven Mindcensor, Stranglehold, Shadow of Doubt: Obviously shutting down tutors is the main goal, but locking out fetchlands can't go unnoticed. Sneaky land destruction.
Price of Progress: In a high powered environment, this will kill off several players on turn 7-8. For two mana, it routinely will deal 30+ damage to the table.
High Market: Homeward Path before Homeward Path was printed. Stop people from stealing or copying your stuff for a very low investment. Primeval Titans in our group typically fetch a gating land (Simic Growth Chamber) and a High Market. Bounce the market, play it untapped to sacrifice the titan rather than eat 6 on your opponent's turn or have them kick Rite of Replication on it.
Underrated
Mana dorks: A player in our group has kept statistics on his games, and dorks > rocks in terms of winrate. And it's not close. Why? A random mana dude can chump, while a rock can't. Random dudes can also combo with things like Ogre Battledriver, Biorhythm, equipment, Craterhoof Behemoth, Gaea's Cradle, etc. A mana rock past turn 4 or 5 is usually a dead draw.
Delay, Memory Lapse, Remand, Swan Song, Stifle, Arcane Denial: These are all hard counterspells with zero drawbacks in multiplayer. The game will end before those Delay counters come off. The only reason you are playing with counters is to stop opposing haymakers. You can't hope to counter every threat at the table, so focus on the ones which make you lose immediately. If you use one of these on Primeval Titan, I will punch you through the internet.
Clogged board: In a degenerate meta, know what are good cards? Wall of Blossoms. Borderland Ranger. Sea Gate Oracle. Seriously. Just because it's a high powered format doesn't mean every card has to be banlist worthy. Hitting land drops while discouraging aggression is very valuable since you can't possibly have the answers to every problem at all times. It's simply not feasible to hold and cast enough counterspells to combat the table, so don't try. These cards can become a lot bigger with things like Craterhoof Behemoth or Mirrorweave. And they also don't get you killed to Reins of Power or Insurrection.
Consistency: In this post I've already mentioned a ton of seemingly terrible cards. Yet I win a plurality in our group. It's because my deck very rarely craps out on me. My Borderland Rangers keep the land coming and meat in front of me. I don't have useless Carrion Feeders or other combo pieces clogging my hand, just game winning cards or things I'm happy to cast naturally. My Vexing Sphinxes keep me safe while improving my draw. Unsummon/Pongify stopped a Kiki-Jiki combo. And then next turn I Natural Order into Craterhoof Behemoth and win.
The cards doing the heavy lifting are usually the mana and tutors, NOT the filler of the deck. You maximize your chances of winning by maximizing the times you play the game winning cards. My win condition of choice, Craterhoof, depends on having dudes on board and mana to cast him. Borderland Ranger does both of those things while something like Duskgrove Elder or Thrun, the Last Troll do not, even though they are objectively better cards.
Make them prove it: As Day[9] said, sometimes the best plan is just to go kill them. If someone is seemingly about to win next turn, tilt your guys sideways at them if you don't have the answer in hand. Often the table will pitch in and/or your opponent won't be able to seal the deal. This is my default plan when facing Mana Reflection/Mirari's Wake or a card drawer that takes mana (Mind's Eye), and it has worked out well for me.
Overrated
Equipment: Yes really. It's either incredibly low value (Umezawa's Jitte, Sword of Fire and Ice) and/or mana intensive (Blade of Selves, Batterskull). One of them no one cares about, and the other one is asking to get blown out with a timely removal spell. In a game going to a maximum of 10 turns, congratulations on wasting two of them casting a creature and then trying to equip it.
Defensive cards: The guy who keeps stats on his games also clearly shows that cards like Diamond Valley and Maze of Ith are terrible. In a vaccuum, they are fantastic cards. But in multiplayer, staving off death for a turn is not the same as winning the game. You know what has a higher winrate than Diamond Valley? High Market! Yes the mana is that important. He's tracked these stats over 1,000's of games.
Blocking: Chump blocking is fine if you're preventing lethal, but blocking to trade guys is very rarely good. By trading guys, you and an opponent are just falling down the stairs with your hands locked around each other's throats in a death embrace. By letting them through, you keep your options open for later. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and Gaea's Cradle are big reasons not to trade. Having cards like Natural Order and Azami, Lady of Scrolls in the deck mean trading guys is a disaster.
You start with 20 life. An opponent might start attacking you around turn 4/5 with a 4+ power guy. That gives you until turn 7/8 to care. Just roll down like a man. A 3 power guy will take 7 turns to kill you unaided. That's why I recommend dudes like Vexing Sphinx. They discourage early aggression and nearly guarantee living to turns 8/9.
Lifegain: The first 10-20 life gained will yield the most impact as most decks are focused on dealing 20, 40, or infinite. So Extort effects and random lifegain attached to guys like Thragtusk is very valuable to temporarily get you out of range, but dedicated lifegain like Ivory Tower is going to be overkill (unless it's part of the plan, ie Tinker).
Traditional Ramp: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, Gaea's Cradle, Cloudpost, and Cabal Coffers have put most other ramp to shame. Rampant growth effects are so bad compared to Rofellos, Priest of Titania, Oracle of Mul Daya, or Sol Ring. Color fixing can be done with fetchlands. Because these lands are so strong, Wasteland effects are in high demand. But how much are you willing to sacrifice? Using Wasteland when you have 5 land total might be sabotaging your chances just as bad as you're doing to someone else.
MTGOTraders are one of the few legit organizations on MTGO. They offer fair prices for both buying and selling, never stooping low enough to gouge people.
I sold my online collection to them and it was the easiest thing ever. If I ever get back into MTGO, I'll only go through them.
I've been playing this for a few days on MTGO. Jim Davis's list with some tweaks just to see what works. Here's some rambling thoughts.
The MTGO metagame is very planeswalker and flier heavy. Clip Wings x4 in the sideboard isn't outrageous from what I'm seeing.
Cutting a Jace: Tried it, but the deck gets too much value even if Jace just rolls up every turn. And sticking him and chaining CoCo's together is simply the best way to end the game. 4x Jace and don't feel bad about it.
Consider adding another Nissa, Vastwood Seer in the Den Protector/Hidden Dragonslayer spot. The deck is very mana hungry and appreciates basic lands enabling the check lands.
Den Protector blows to be main deck. He's just too mana intensive in an already mana intensive deck. If you know it's a long matchup, then he's good.
Tireless tracker is slow, but really good. I'd also consider 3x Tracker main deck with the 4th in the board against super slow decks. Laying an Evolving Wilds on T5 when you can pop both clues can give real problems to certain removal.
Dromoka's Command is "not great" in the MTGO metagame. There are too many creatureless or near creatureless decks. But I think 4x commands between main deck and board can be really strong in a mixed environment. They are just blowouts against some decks.
Ojutai's Command hasn't impressed me as much as I'd hoped. I mainly use it to get Jace flipped against determined opposition. Dismiss on a dragon doesn't feel nearly as good as it should be. It feels too... fair.
I want to like Hidden Dragonslayer, but he's so mana intensive. Oddly enough, I think he's best as a 2/1 lifelink against aggressive decks and kind of sucks against Goblin Dark-Dwellers. You're paying 6 to get rid of a 5 mana card + the spell he cast. And your 3/2 dies to 1 mana spells or in a sweep effect.
Against anything B/X, Languish is going to be what you fear most. Take it real slow and milk your Recruiters and Trackers every chance you get. Don't over-commit to the board.
Bounding Krasis and/or Reflector Mages should be sideboarded out against creatureless/near creatureless decks for Tireless Tracker and Den Protector. Anything that has more longevity.
Lantern Scouts single handedly destroys some archetypes. It's not useful 99% of the time, but that 1% it's killer.
Current sideboard assuming Jim Davis's list: 4x Negate, 3x Clip Wings, 2 Den Protector, 2 Lantern Scout, 2 Tireless Tracker, 1 Dromoka's Command, 1 Ojutai's Command. The Trackers, Protectors, and Ojutai's Command are for the really grindy games that seem to make up MTGO. Negates for those people in love with 5+ mana planeswalkers. Lantern Scouts against burn. Dromoka's Command in for Ojutai's Command is really all you need for the main list to wreck something like W/X Humans or other midrange decks.
As a poster says above, -1 Plains +1 forest. Not having Avacyn mana on turn 5 isn't a deal breaker, but not getting green mana early is crippling.
How does this archetype beat the much more aggressive White humans decks? They can be solid-white, WG or WU, but not WUG for the aggressive mode. The key features are 2/2 firststrikers, Kytheon, Always Watching, Thalia's Lieutenant, Archangel of Tithes. The point of the list is it's very quick to get 4/4 firstrikers that can't be blocked unless you pay mana, and they have a bunch of removal as well to take out your better things.
Maybe my first impressions were wrong, but I got the strong impression it is hard to contain them. In any event, what are the key features to controlling their game?
W/X Humans finds it really hard to force through damage on the ground against Bant Company. The board quickly grinds to a halt come turn 4 because Humans can't just sit back forever, so Humans tends to get a really bad trade due to CoCo or Dromo's Command which stalls everything. Bant protects a Nissa and Jace and quickly buries W/X Humans in card advantage. The bant dudes look really terrible, but they work well in practice.
The format has already adapted to MGA. Blade Splicer after Blade Splicer is out there, not to mention how horribly bad Timely Reinforcements are for the deck. Wurmcoil Engine and Sun Titan -> Phantasmal Image are immediate game overs save for multiple miracles. The rotation will help, but there's really no good matchup out there now. Even if Delver is running Geist of Saint Traft, they can still put up a solid fight.
Blinking Blade Splicers with angels means you can't realistically attack until turn 7 or later with a Dungrove, and they just can block too profitably otherwise.
Some decks are so tight that there's only one build (TPPS, Familiar), but other decks like Goblins/Affinity/MUC/etc have a ton of different build options. Pauper right now is honestly the most diverse environment of any MTG format I've seen over the past decade. There's no dominant deck, and tier 1 is 8+ decks. (T1 defined as consistent 4-0 possible against a daily field)
Play commander if you really want to face a diverse deck each time, and on a more casual level. Buy a pre-con and customize it. The "devour for power" deck has a lot of staples of the format, and I've won the majority of the games I've used without modifying that deck at all. It's not an expensive format, as the better cards are the "forgotten rares" in most formats. Also, there are often great substitutions you can make with cheaper cards (Oblivion Stone in lieu of Pernicious Deed).
Our playgroup has them all and played them vs each other, in FFA and 2HG style games (4-6 players in each).
From best to worst:
Devour for Power:
The best deck [ie: most competitive] out of the preconstructs by a mile: Mimeoplasm offers ridiculous utility and game-ending power all in one package. The deck combines the best commander, with powerful global effects (Gravepact, Butcher of Malakir, Syphon Flesh/Mind, Unnerve), the best card drawing (FoF, Syphon Mind, and every mill spell works awesomely as a pseudo-draw), multiple types of evasion for every creature you play, and a game-ender (living death). The mana-base is very solid as well.
Political Puppets: Some of the spells are some of the best among all the decks for this format (Chaos Warp/Oblation/Insurrection/Reins/Wild), and it offers a very unique playstyle that can be very rewarding in its' own right.
However, kill Zedruu twice, and there's no realistic way the deck can win since it's difficult to hit 8 mana to re-cast him with this mana base. And the whole deck is built around him, which means there are some pretty weak cards when he's not on the table. Ruhan not only doesn't fit with what the deck does, he's also just bad on top of that. Numot as commander runs into the mana problem again.
Mirror Mastery:The deck sports a solid and consistent mana-base paired with a pretty good commander. The support spells are more what's lacking here. Copying most of the creatures and spells looks impressive until you realize that other decks are just doing that by default and don't need to copy to be good. Damage-based removal isn't that great in this format, either.
Also, as has been said: if the deck doesn't get a ramp card, it performs quite poorly.
Counterpunch: The deck gums up the ground really well: decks without evasion will find it nearly impossible to get through.
However, the deck has a big weakness against fliers, creating 1/1's isn't the most powerful of game-plans, and the deck is split between the token theme and creatures for Karador which create some awkward draws.
Heavenly Inferno: Total crap. It's just a pile of random guys and removal. Losing Kaalia twice is practically game-over since the mana-base can't handle all the 7+ casting cost creatures: they depend on her for acceleration, which is also why you can't use the other commanders. However, even if you get her to stick, dropping a Voice of All (or often, nothing!) is quite embarrassing.
Generally I find Ancestor's Chosen to be sub-par due to them IGG looping for infinite, or just storming for a million due to casting Ad Nauseum from 20 life and drawing the whole deck. Primus/Terastodon are as good as advertised.
I've never won a game with T0 Leyline of Sanctity vs ANT/TES. Once they get going, it's just trivial for them to Truth it.
Tried Thorn of Amethyst. Bad, even when landing. It has the same problems as using mana for CT: it slows you down a whole turn. When the game lasts 3 turns max, using one of them to possibly hit a card isn't worth doing. This is why Duress + CT didn't work either.
Currently trying Mindbreak Trap even though many have recommended against it. My theory is that I am rarely Duress'ed, and my opponents don't play around it online. It should be significantly worse in G3 since the surprise is gone, but it'll at least force them to side in something/anything and in all likelihood slow them down a turn.
You're counting 12 draw spells against 4 and claiming victory. Why? The Winds version has Coliseum plus Breakthough as well, but you don't count those draws. It's not even remotely comparable since you add up every good draw for the Tribe/Imp version, and only one good draw for the Winds version. Apples to Apples would be to do the math for a good breakthrough draw vs a good winds draw. I did the math, and to keep this short, it came out closer than expected: 19% probability of getting a good Breakthrough draw in Tribe/Imp or a good Winds draw in the opening 7. 22% for the winds draw if I include Land+Careful Study hands instead of just Land x2.
@Fistdantilus: In your testing, how often do you mulligan using that build? Do you feel comfortable with going down to 3-4 cards with that build? Do you have more keepable hands compared to the 5 color build? How's the performance during post board games? How well does the build handle different kinds of hate (ex. crypt, kotr/bog, and ghostly prison all in play)?
I mulligan the normal amount. Number of keepers feels the same, but the power level of the keepers is different.
I don't feel comfortable going to 3-4 with either version, but the good draws are possible with both: Outlet/land/Dredge/Draw or Winds/Dredge/Land/(Land/Study). Going to 5 with either version is fine for me.
Post-board games are fantastic with Winds. Bounce the hate, generate a massive board in one turn.
How well does the build handle different kinds of hate (ex. crypt, kotr/bog, and ghostly prison all in play)?
Most hate is all the same post-board:
1. Bounce hate (EoT if possible)
2. Generate huge board
3. Discard annoying things from their hand
They have 1-2 turns to top-deck the answer.
When the opponent gets double Crypt or something T1, that's difficult.
Reasoning: Lack of Ichorid food was annoying, but the real pain point was that I was so dependent on Narcomoebas since I was generating a massive single turn. Post board this was especially annoying: dredge 40 cards but find zero 'moebas would mean I auto-lose next turn when my opponent replays his Crypt after it was bounced. =(
With this version, you generally plan for turn 3 to be huge post-board. EoT bounce their hate, Winds/BT on your turn, lay a land to get the bloodghasts. If you can plan your big turn around a fetch-land, it gets crazy pretty quick.
Brainstorm out
Reasoning: Bleh. It wasn't necessary and clogged the deck. I got too cute with that one.
Dredge Utility Package of Darkblast/Dakmor x2/Thug
Reasoning: Obviously the lands combo with bloodghast. But I've been really impressed the more I play with dredge how often Darkblast is useful. Killing weenies like Cursecatcher, Lackey/Fanatic/MWM/Prospector, Mangara/Bodyguard, Grim Lavamancer, and Goblin Welder has been fantastic. Killing my Thugs/Moebas in response is pretty kewl too. Thinking about taking out a Stinkweed Imp to fit in a 2nd Darkblast, but the dredge package is already weak so I dunno. Thug I consider utility because he's easy to play if you need another body to sacrifice, and he sets up narcomoeba.
Thought about putting in Life from the Loam, but the more I thought about it the more I realized it didn't fit. I rarely use both Dakmors anyway.
Breakthrough or Darkblast are next to get cut if you need to bring in Iona/Terestodon/Chosen. Iona comes in against mono-colored decks, Chosen and Terastodon are judgement calls. Darkblast replaces a Stinkweed Imp in the Goblin/Elf/WW/Zoo matchup. Duress comes in for Darkblast+Breakthrough in the combo matchup.
Summary:
The only decks that have been giving me problems lately are other combo decks. Ooze Reanimator, Show and Tell, ANT. Brainstorm hides the important pieces from discard. Natural Order variants are usually too slow.
Turn 1: Land, Pass (6 cards in hand)
Turn 2: Land, Winds with discard 5: 5 Dredges
Then again, you can have an additional draw spell in your hand after Coliseum/BT X=1, while after Winds you have nothing.
You are right that it's not faster. However, there are more "power" draws with winds.
Correct again, but missing the point: who cares what you have in your hand after winds; the library is now in the graveyard. Just kill them.
And Tribe/Pimp will translate into a sac fodder for DR or CT, leaving behind several Zombies. Winds relies only on Moebas, and later Ichorids.
Pick one you want in a card: dredge half your deck, or have a body to sacrifice.
Third, Pimp/Tribe-Dredge is a lot more resilient to mulligans. You can still get optimal hands with 4 or 5 cards, while the Winds plan will get drastically worse with each mulligan. Well, at 5 cards for example you need 2 lands and can then cast Wilds for 2 or 3, at which point a turn 1 discard dork would have been a lot better.
There are certainly diminishing returns at 4 cards with Winds. Dredging for 1 a turn really isn't much better though: you're pretty much screwed at that point.
And a deck with Winds still has CT/CS + BT, which is the only "optimal" draw you can possibly get anyway at 4 cards with a tribe/imp version.
Also, without a discard outlet turn 1, each opposing Wasteland is a Time Walk. Neither BT or Winds work with only one land. I see that you could take the DDD route here, but well... Then again, Winds is useless, right? And the DDD route is much easier to take in traditional builds, due to more Ichorid food (and maybe more Ichorids).
Unless you specifically have Breakthrough and another land, wasteland is a timewalk for every version of dredge. You must have some amazing one turn dredges that I'm not getting to be this impressed by dredging only in your draw step.
Playing Winds is about increasing the number of explosive draws.
And post board, when Winds is pretty much unplayable, your list will absolutely suffer from the lack of discard outlets. 4 Studies is not really much. And the DDD route is neutered if your opponent plays Relic, and everyone plays Relic. Or if you take a mulligan of course.
My winrate drastically increased with Winds post-board. Playing Winds is the best way to paris in-game.
I'll admit, DDD is harder if they do play relic T1.
Here's why I don't need a permanent discard outlet:I'm constantly dredging a LOT of new cards into the graveyard. Dredging for 6 a turn isn't what I'm after. I'm going to power my whole library into the yard and kill them.
8 black creatures don't support more than 3 Ichorids. And even 3 should be really problematic.
Only need them a few times. 3 are in there to get them consistently a few time, not consistently many times. Would I like more Ichorid food? Yes, I even point out the lack of it.
The fact that Tolarian is Instant isn't really relevant. I'd rather play it on my own turn in order to be able to cast Therapies and DR out of what I dredge into instead of waiting until EOT. I play Dredge for some time now but have never activated Coliseum as an instant, just to draw a comparison.
Post-board it becomes very relevant when your opponent taps out on his turn because it's "safe" and you know he plays with sorcery speed hate.
What you just said above is that you want to Therapy away the opposing hate instead of forcing them to use it. Can you tell me how you want to do that if they are on the play and aren't stupid enough to forget to drop their Crypt/Relic? And what do you name? Relic, Crypt, Nihil Spellbomb, Exrirpate, Wheel of Sun and Moon, Yixlid Jailer or Faerie Macabre?
This is why G2 is so hard, but it's harder for every version because of this. Don't say Winds is particularly prone to this.
And dredging 6 each turn is at least twice as fast as CounterTop xP
I guess I just need to get better at flipping over Bridges/Ichorids as consistently as you do when dredging for 6 a turn.
I see that with Tribes gone, one of the main reasons to play 5-c is gone, but still there are cards like Firestorm, Nature's Claim and especially Ancient Grudge, which are worth playing. I would strongly disagree with your statement that Grudge is not better than the Chain of Vapor plan.
Firestorm is completely unnecessary, as is Ancient Grudge: if a deck can't mess with your graveyard or slow your draw, they aren't going to win. I'm not playing their game, they are playing mine.
@ 1. A bit more explosiveness and the fact that Winds-3 Lands-Dredger hands are now keepable (which isn't really easier than Land-Discard Dork-Dredger-Draw spell imo). And there is definitey a consistency loss. There's no denying that. Mulligans completely screw your list unless you have Study and Wastelands are Time Walks.
<<<<<<<<<<<INSERT NERD RAGE HERE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tireless Tribe vs Tolarian Winds hand mulliganed to 5:
Even when you claim mulligans hurt the deck, Winds still comes out waaaaay ahead. Tribes are a means to an end, nothing more. The point is to put the library into the graveyard. As you can see from the numbers, Tribes/Imp isn't the best way to accomplish that.
And your claim that drawing a 3 card combo isn't harder or more inconsistent than a 2 card combo...
@ 3. I don't understand why a Catch-all sb plan is better than a more specified board. I'd say having 4 Claims as catch-all and also Grudges that wreck Crypt/Relic hate and Rays are just better. Correct me on this.
Your opponent has access to black. Does he bring in Extirpate?
All opponents have access to Ravenous Trap, Faerie Macabre, and Bojuka Bog.
Is your opponent relying on Jotun Grunt / Mogg Fanatic instead of dedicated hate?
I have seen a ton of variation in SB plans for my opponents, and Chains is almost always live even if they don't have permanent-based hate. Bounce/Discard their hate, develop a huge board in one turn, and all their hate is now almost useless.
Fighting hate cards one by one is just painful.
EDIT: P.S.II: I forgot to ask that: Why do you even play Brainstorm in your sideboard? Only because a deck with Fetches has to play Brainstorm as well? Or only because you want to have 16 draw spells and need a post boad replacement for Winds?
I probably didn't make it clear enough: Breakthrough needs to be replaced post-board, and Brainstorm is the best because it's almost as good at dredging. It doubles as a searcher and a power dredger.
How do you force them to waste their Crypt/Relic post-sideboard with Tolarian Winds? With TI you could discard 1-2 dredgers at a time, dredge 5-6 cards, get enough of a position that they are forced to activate their hate, and then discard another dredger. Winds seems EXTREMELY all-or-nothing. And nearly impossible to play against hate.
Either with DDD, Careful Study, or light dredging with Winds. You don't have to dredge every draw step. Just dredge a few and draw the rest normally. It does make playing against Extirpate harder since you expose Bridge/Ichorid, but against everything else it's way easier. Mostly though, Winds is for taking advantage of the window you're given once you've bounced/discarded their hate. If Iona/Terastodon is coming in, I go down to 3 Winds.
The plan isn't to force them to "waste" it. Cabal Therapy them and take it. If the coast is clear, you straight up kill them. If they play their hate, at EoT you bounced it, Winds, and develop a huge board in one turn. Slow dredging with this deck isn't the goal. Build a hand, clear the way with Chain/Cabal, kill them before they find more hate.
Think of it this way: for one card (Tribe or Winds) you are getting X discards. I choose to pay 1 more mana and have all those discards at once, with draws added on for free.
Note: I think Ancient Grudge / Nature's Claim is a really poor plan post board vs Crypt/Relic specifically, but everyone seems to have accepted it. I've tested tons of games, and it hasn't worked nearly as well as advertised because the only option is slooooowly rebuilding and hoping you don't get hit again. Well, slow dredging just gives them that much more time to find more hate and/or kill you. It's fine if both of you start with the hate and anti-hate in hand and you can force the issue before it does too much damage, but slow dredging just doesn't get the job done most of the time. Even something like Top-Fetchlands will find pressure faster than dredging 6 a turn.
Excluding Aven Mindcensor, never in my life have I ever cared about these cards in a multiplayer setting.
The big thing is living long enough be the last one standing. Blue removal does that. Do other colors do it "better" in some respects? Sure, but who cares if it's already good enough to win?
Hence U/x to fill holes. Though I don't think it's necessary. Just playing Clone.dec ensures you always have the very best creature on board.
All strong cards for sure, but I think it's splitting hairs. I can draw 10 on T4 with Managorger Hydra and Hunter's Insight. Another 9 on T5 with Scute Mob and Life's Legacy. And some of those like AK+Intuition are "meh": that's Jace's Ingenuity. Thirst for Knowledge is better than cycling Krosan Tusker, but it's not a blowout.
Whether you draw 14 over two turns with Recurring Insight or 10 with Soul's Majesty, who cares? Both are a ton of cards.
My point is this: I'm an 80/20 guy. The vast majority of your wins will come from surviving long enough to playing the 100+ brutally overpowered cards and combos. The difference between Fact or Fiction and Harmonize is negligible in the face of slamming a Prophet of Kruphix on the board. What matters is that both are mana efficient enough to be in the conversation.
Of course you're not sad to draw Wrath of God. It's a fantastic card! Non-blue sweepers are perfectly fine, and oftentimes better than blue ones (Hallowed Burial,Blasphemous Act, Decree of Pain). Part of what I tried, and failed, to achieve in the post was to break down highly outdated notions such as "blue has bad creatures" or "blue has bad removal".
Regarding vulnerability to sweepers, I generally don't care about them. Untap and throw down a Scute Mob and Managorger Hydra. You're basically threatening death again for someone next turn. Card advantage is trivial after 20 years of printing. Blue, green, and black all draw cards like crazy. Take your pick of ridiculous: Greater Good, Momentous Fall, Garruk, Primal Hunter, Life's Legacy, etc etc etc. I'd argue that at power draw, green > blue! Oracle of Mul Daya also nearly guarantees that you won't draw a land again. It effectively increases the spell density of your deck from 60% to 100%.
Card advantage in multiplayer is further diminished when there are dozens of cards that read "delete player from the game". Overwhelming Stampede, Mirrorweave, Mass Mutiny, Hatred, etc. Since it takes one card to kill a player (or the table), how many cards do you actually need?
About me: 2K composite rated player when I was active in the tournament scene. Spike.
If I don't mention something, it's because Prid3 already covered it in his excellent guides that he really needs to compile into an e-book and sell.
Competitive Multiplayer Truths - Facts don't care about your feelings
If you want to build fun and quirky decks, just stop reading.
Multiplayer isn't a "fair" format. The primary factor in multiplayer games is time. Games will end with degeneracy one way or another. Infinite turns/mana, 30+ global damage, 10 20/20 tramplers, and getting teamed are all commonplace. 6 mana cards not named "Primeval Titan" or "Consecrated Sphinx" are hard to justify because they are too slow. 7+ mana cards that don't win immediately have to at least kill off or cripple some people who were threatening to win this turn. 7 mana is the cutoff because it's around this point where people will be casting ridiculous stuff like Tooth and Nail, Biorhythym, Cyclonic Rift, or some infinite combo. Tapping out for Avenger of Zendikar and passing turn looks real dumb compared to what your opponents will be doing.
I don't care that your group has a banlist, games will end by degeneracy. 20 years of printing cards means that are too many devastaing combos and synergies out there to ban. Multiplayer isn't fair.
Your deck colors will be U/x if you want to win. This is non-negotiable. Someone forgot to tell Wizards that blue shouldn't be the best at nearly everything.
The best creatures: blue by a mile. Their Griselbrand costs 8 while yours costs 4 (Control Magic, Clone effects), 3 (Phyrexian Metamorph), 2 (Phantasmal Image, Dance of Many), or even 1 (Mask of the Mimic). In addition to always having the best creature on the board, Deep-Sea Kraken, Illsory Angel, and Chasm Skulker+Brainstorm annihilate the idea that the blue mage is vulnerable in the early game.
Blue also has the best removal: bounce. With things like Persist, Indestructible, Regenerating, and Undying, "destroy" effects are lackluster. And for many decks, creatures in the graveyard are even better than in hand because reanimation effects are mana efficient. Whelming Wave, Cyclonic Rift, and Displacement Wave (read: Pernicious Deed) don't even care about Hexproof/Shroud/Protection. No you don't care about your opponents reusing their Mulldrifter again, because the game is ending soon because of degeneracy.
The Multani problem
Big, dumb, non-haste creatures are the worst things you can do with your time. Multani, Maro-Sorcerer will routinely be 40/40 or larger and he is completely unplayable as an attacker. If you're comboing him with Pandemonium or something, that's different. But in multiplayer games, too much can happen between this turn and your next. Now take that logic farther: if a 40/40 shroud for 6 is unplayable, does creature size for non-haste, non-evasion creatures actually matter? No.
Yes Multani gets rid of a person who can't seem to field a creature. But in terms of actually winning the game, Multani isn't going to get you there over Tooth and Nail, Enter the Infinite, Insurrection, etc.
Here's a short, not all encompassing, list of easy multiplayer kill cards:
Most of these just require random dorks and standard good cards you're probably already using. Not a lot of complicated setup: just cast and win. Some, like Bloodchief Ascension, Insurrection, and Dragonstorm, require a little effort but are well worth it.
While someone plays Voltron with Thrun, the Last Troll, another player cast Waste Not and Windfall, drawing their deck, cast Exsanguinate for 10+, and put 30 power worth of 2/2's on the board. I can't emphasize it enough: big dumb creatures are an awful plan in multiplayer.
Expected mana over the course of the game
If a game goes to an average of 10 turns and you gain a mana every turn, you will have 1+2+3...+10= 55 mana for the entire game. Obviously you will sometimes have more due to things like Gaea's Cradle, but sometimes you will have less due to missed land drops. You will also not use all your mana every turn. So this 55 mana is probably closer to 45 mana.
When viewed in this light, you can ask yourself better questions:
Is spending 10 mana (~20% of the total mana for the game!) on Batterskull + equip really going to get me there?
Is spending 9 mana to draw 4 cards with Mind's Eye really better than Tidings? Or better than Stroke of Genius? Or Promise of Power or Harmonize?
Mana is the limiting factor of multiplayer and all cards should be evaluated accordingly. Raw power level of the cards is a distant second.
Why not go full combo?
Full combo decks are generally vulnerable in some way, and if they aren't then the table just solves that problem by piledriving you at the start of each game. Obvious combo pieces like Alluren or Mind Over Matter will tip off the table quite quickly.
Sleepers
Mask of the Mimic: You will see the same creatures over and over in multiplayer, meaning you can easily plan for this card to be a Clone for one mana. At the worst, you can duplicate your best creature. Or sacrifice your creture in response to removal or a steal effect. Wonderful utility and absurd power level for a one mana instant. Trading in your Sea Gate Oracle for a Primeval Titan is commonplace.
Vexing Sphinx: Creatures in multiplayer only last a round or three. Blue can have problems in the early game shoring up defense while looking for later plays. Since you can order the age counter and discard upkeeps, you can put a counter on first to draw an extra card before it dies due to not paying discard upkeep. You're basically renting this creature for two turns for 3 mana since you draw as many cards as you discard. It's fantastic card filtering and early defense for a color that loves both. Eats early planeswalkers too.
Illusory Angel: Like Plumeveil, but it attacks. Instead of Fog Bank, this guy can eat planeswalkers as well. The 3 mana investment is so low that it's easy to throw down early (T2: Sol Ring -> Angel) and obsoletes a lot of annoying early aggression.
Deep-Sea Kraken: 6/6 unblockable for 3. In blue. Dodges your T4 Whelming Wave or someone's Wrath of God. Good at thinning the field or quickly removing planeswalkers.
Magus of the Library: Better than Library of Alexandria. No joke. Library of Alexandria is like stone raining yourself since you can't tap it both for mana and cards at the same time. So anyone who puts out a library gets attacked immediately. They spend cards defending themselves, and presto: no 7 cards to draw with, or they eat 10+ damage and can be picked off. Magus is a mana dude with legit upside of drawing. Later he also chumps.
In a duel, you can afford to Stone Rain yourself, draw some cards, and catch up later. In multiplayer, you fall too far behind.
Panglacial Wurm: Fetchlands (and their Mirage block counterparts) can be reused to grab a 9/5 trample at instant speed. It turns a lot of dead ramp effects into something useful later on. It's also handy with Crop Rotation, Worldly Tutor, Mystical Tutor, and Vampiric Tutor. One in the deck is plenty. You can also bluff him in other games if you decide to take him out.
Hunted Horror, Hunted Phantasm, Hunted Troll, Hunted Dragon, Hunted Lammasu: "Group hug" done right. Criminally easy to pair with relevant mass removal to deal with the tokens (and more) after a few players have been knocked off: Toxic Deluge, Pyroclasm/Flamebreak/Slagstorm, Displacement Wave, Cyclonic Rift, etc.
Forbidden Orchard: Any color of mana you want, with zero drawback. All of the damage those 1/1's deal is less damage you'll have to deal.
Sheltering Ancient: Better than Tarmogoyf in multiplayer. Yes I hear you laughing. Goyf not only gets chumped, he doesn't create escalating problems for your opponents. A non-evasion creature is nearly useless in multiplayer (see: Multani, Maro-Sorcerer). You can choose to not pay the upkeep if you want, but creatures don't usually last more than a few rounds anyway.
Æther Gale: Blue Hex that also also hits planeswalkers, artifacts, and enchantments. WTF Wizards? You spend 5 mana to remove 30 mana worth of permanents.
Profaner of the Dead: Yet another one way board wipe for blue and great sacrifice outlet for stolen creatures. Plague Wind costs 9 for black, but Blue gets several options that cost 4, 5 (Æther Gale), or 7 (Cyclonic Rift, Scourge of Fleets). The amount of unfair multiplayer blue cards is shocking.
Mirrorweave: Blue Overrun, except way better because you can use it defensively. Immediately upgrade all your guys into Primeval Titans and attack. Can also be used politically to eliminate someone(s) from the game.
Blue removal in general: Rapid Hybridization, Pongify, Vapor Snag, Unsummon, Curfew, Reality Shift, Whelming Wave, Wash Out, Engulf the Shore, Evacuation, Crush of Tentacles, Scourge of Fleets, Æther Gale, Submerge, Devastation Tide, and Cyclonic Rift are all top quality. If you think you need to splash W or R for removal, don't. Blue has it already.
Removal is only as good as the target you're using it on. Bouncing a 2 mana guy with Unsummon is atrocious. Even Path to Exile on that guy is terrible. Bouncing a 4 mana guy that they are trying to equip a sword to is a 9-1 mana blowout.
Massacre Wurm: Often kills a player or two outright upon cast or after a board wipe. Cloning him is pretty great too.
Sangromancer, Geth's Grimoire: Both of these add tremendous value for very little investment. Watch at all the natural discard that happens in a game. People discard to spells (Thirst for Knowledge), because they over-draw, because they are mana-screwed, or because of forced discard by someone else. There will be some times where these cards aren't great, but the ceilings on them are fantastic.
Jace Beleren: For 3 mana, you draw 6 cards. That one extra card you give the table isn't of much consequence. This is the best Jace for pure card drawing.
Lambholt Elder: An easier to cast Leatherback Baloth isn't good enough. One that has Curiosity built in, is.
Krosan Tusker: One of the best draw spells, and it's not even blue!
Creeperhulk: A walking Overrun that is easier to use than Kamahl, Fist of Krosa. 20 life isn't a lot, and Overrun on T7 is often overkill for one player but not enough for two. Putting 4 mana to turn two mana dudes into 15 trampling power on T6 is usually enough because of fetchlands and other incidental damage. The body on Creeperhulk and mana requirements are so much better than Kamahl as well.
Careful Consideration: People talk about Fact or Fiction and somehow leave this one off of the list. It's basically a FoF but you get to choose exactly what you keep and where everything goes! The pseudo sorcery aspect of it can be a bonus or not, depending on the deck. It also says "draw", which interacts better with cards like Chasm Skulker / Abundance.
Dack's Duplicate: Best clone ever. All the degenerate crap your opponent wanted to do, you got to do a turn earlier. And for cheaper.
Moment's Peace: A Time Walk that you can discard. Fog effects are usually terrible, but sometimes you have to buy that one more turn or two to set up. This one makes the cut because you can discard it and not lose value.
Savor the Moment: At it's worst, it's Explore. At it's best it gives you great value from planeswalkers and effectively gives haste to the guys you cast. One example: Waste Not -> Windfall degeneracy -> Savor the Moment -> win.
Submerge: Someone will have a forest, don't worry. In response to your Primeval Titan search, let's put him on the top of the deck. GG NO RE.
Aven Mindcensor, Stranglehold, Shadow of Doubt: Obviously shutting down tutors is the main goal, but locking out fetchlands can't go unnoticed. Sneaky land destruction.
Price of Progress: In a high powered environment, this will kill off several players on turn 7-8. For two mana, it routinely will deal 30+ damage to the table.
High Market: Homeward Path before Homeward Path was printed. Stop people from stealing or copying your stuff for a very low investment. Primeval Titans in our group typically fetch a gating land (Simic Growth Chamber) and a High Market. Bounce the market, play it untapped to sacrifice the titan rather than eat 6 on your opponent's turn or have them kick Rite of Replication on it.
Underrated
Mana dorks: A player in our group has kept statistics on his games, and dorks > rocks in terms of winrate. And it's not close. Why? A random mana dude can chump, while a rock can't. Random dudes can also combo with things like Ogre Battledriver, Biorhythm, equipment, Craterhoof Behemoth, Gaea's Cradle, etc. A mana rock past turn 4 or 5 is usually a dead draw.
Stealing, Copying, and Reanimating: Only a sucker pays full price. Your Primeval Titan costs 6. Mine cost 2 with Phantasmal Image/Dance of Many/Animate Dead. Homeward Path might be a card, but so is Wasteland, Strip Mine, Ghost Quarter, and Tectonic Edge.
Delay, Memory Lapse, Remand, Swan Song, Stifle, Arcane Denial: These are all hard counterspells with zero drawbacks in multiplayer. The game will end before those Delay counters come off. The only reason you are playing with counters is to stop opposing haymakers. You can't hope to counter every threat at the table, so focus on the ones which make you lose immediately. If you use one of these on Primeval Titan, I will punch you through the internet.
Clogged board: In a degenerate meta, know what are good cards? Wall of Blossoms. Borderland Ranger. Sea Gate Oracle. Seriously. Just because it's a high powered format doesn't mean every card has to be banlist worthy. Hitting land drops while discouraging aggression is very valuable since you can't possibly have the answers to every problem at all times. It's simply not feasible to hold and cast enough counterspells to combat the table, so don't try. These cards can become a lot bigger with things like Craterhoof Behemoth or Mirrorweave. And they also don't get you killed to Reins of Power or Insurrection.
Consistency: In this post I've already mentioned a ton of seemingly terrible cards. Yet I win a plurality in our group. It's because my deck very rarely craps out on me. My Borderland Rangers keep the land coming and meat in front of me. I don't have useless Carrion Feeders or other combo pieces clogging my hand, just game winning cards or things I'm happy to cast naturally. My Vexing Sphinxes keep me safe while improving my draw. Unsummon/Pongify stopped a Kiki-Jiki combo. And then next turn I Natural Order into Craterhoof Behemoth and win.
The cards doing the heavy lifting are usually the mana and tutors, NOT the filler of the deck. You maximize your chances of winning by maximizing the times you play the game winning cards. My win condition of choice, Craterhoof, depends on having dudes on board and mana to cast him. Borderland Ranger does both of those things while something like Duskgrove Elder or Thrun, the Last Troll do not, even though they are objectively better cards.
Make them prove it: As Day[9] said, sometimes the best plan is just to go kill them. If someone is seemingly about to win next turn, tilt your guys sideways at them if you don't have the answer in hand. Often the table will pitch in and/or your opponent won't be able to seal the deal. This is my default plan when facing Mana Reflection/Mirari's Wake or a card drawer that takes mana (Mind's Eye), and it has worked out well for me.
Overrated
Equipment: Yes really. It's either incredibly low value (Umezawa's Jitte, Sword of Fire and Ice) and/or mana intensive (Blade of Selves, Batterskull). One of them no one cares about, and the other one is asking to get blown out with a timely removal spell. In a game going to a maximum of 10 turns, congratulations on wasting two of them casting a creature and then trying to equip it.
The exception may be Sword of Feast and Famine because it is a mini-Prophet of Kruphix, but no one plays Bear Umbra so I don't understand the love this thing gets.
If you really want to make guys bigger, Xenagos, God of Revels, Wolfir Silverheart, Eldrazi Conscription (with or without Sovereigns of Lost Alara), and Increasing Savagery are your best bets because they are mana efficient. Then you realize that all those cards kinda suck.
Big dumb guys and big dumb boards: Multani, Eldrazi, Avenger of Zendikar, Vulturous Zombie, etc, all suck. Guess who is going to die to these cards? Answer: the guy who cast them. Reins of Power, Insurrection, Ray of Command/Threaten/Zealous Conscripts, Mass Mutiny, and Molten Primordial are all real cards that see play.
Defensive cards: The guy who keeps stats on his games also clearly shows that cards like Diamond Valley and Maze of Ith are terrible. In a vaccuum, they are fantastic cards. But in multiplayer, staving off death for a turn is not the same as winning the game. You know what has a higher winrate than Diamond Valley? High Market! Yes the mana is that important. He's tracked these stats over 1,000's of games.
Blocking: Chump blocking is fine if you're preventing lethal, but blocking to trade guys is very rarely good. By trading guys, you and an opponent are just falling down the stairs with your hands locked around each other's throats in a death embrace. By letting them through, you keep your options open for later. Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and Gaea's Cradle are big reasons not to trade. Having cards like Natural Order and Azami, Lady of Scrolls in the deck mean trading guys is a disaster.
You start with 20 life. An opponent might start attacking you around turn 4/5 with a 4+ power guy. That gives you until turn 7/8 to care. Just roll down like a man. A 3 power guy will take 7 turns to kill you unaided. That's why I recommend dudes like Vexing Sphinx. They discourage early aggression and nearly guarantee living to turns 8/9.
Lifegain: The first 10-20 life gained will yield the most impact as most decks are focused on dealing 20, 40, or infinite. So Extort effects and random lifegain attached to guys like Thragtusk is very valuable to temporarily get you out of range, but dedicated lifegain like Ivory Tower is going to be overkill (unless it's part of the plan, ie Tinker).
Traditional Ramp: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, Gaea's Cradle, Cloudpost, and Cabal Coffers have put most other ramp to shame. Rampant growth effects are so bad compared to Rofellos, Priest of Titania, Oracle of Mul Daya, or Sol Ring. Color fixing can be done with fetchlands. Because these lands are so strong, Wasteland effects are in high demand. But how much are you willing to sacrifice? Using Wasteland when you have 5 land total might be sabotaging your chances just as bad as you're doing to someone else.
Card Drawing: Recurring Insight is certainly powerful, but tapping out without affecting the board past turn 6 is a good way to end up dead. Mind's Eye is very expensive as well. Try to find effects like Future Sight (Magus of the Future), Chandra, Pyromaster, Necropotence, or Oracle of Mul Daya where you don't have to actually pay to cast the card AND pay to draw it.
TL;DR: Mana Efficiency > Card Quality for multiplayer games because all the degenerate ways to end the game obsolete higher casting cost cards.
I sold my online collection to them and it was the easiest thing ever. If I ever get back into MTGO, I'll only go through them.
The MTGO metagame is very planeswalker and flier heavy. Clip Wings x4 in the sideboard isn't outrageous from what I'm seeing.
Cutting a Jace: Tried it, but the deck gets too much value even if Jace just rolls up every turn. And sticking him and chaining CoCo's together is simply the best way to end the game. 4x Jace and don't feel bad about it.
Consider adding another Nissa, Vastwood Seer in the Den Protector/Hidden Dragonslayer spot. The deck is very mana hungry and appreciates basic lands enabling the check lands.
Den Protector blows to be main deck. He's just too mana intensive in an already mana intensive deck. If you know it's a long matchup, then he's good.
Tireless tracker is slow, but really good. I'd also consider 3x Tracker main deck with the 4th in the board against super slow decks. Laying an Evolving Wilds on T5 when you can pop both clues can give real problems to certain removal.
Dromoka's Command is "not great" in the MTGO metagame. There are too many creatureless or near creatureless decks. But I think 4x commands between main deck and board can be really strong in a mixed environment. They are just blowouts against some decks.
Ojutai's Command hasn't impressed me as much as I'd hoped. I mainly use it to get Jace flipped against determined opposition. Dismiss on a dragon doesn't feel nearly as good as it should be. It feels too... fair.
I want to like Hidden Dragonslayer, but he's so mana intensive. Oddly enough, I think he's best as a 2/1 lifelink against aggressive decks and kind of sucks against Goblin Dark-Dwellers. You're paying 6 to get rid of a 5 mana card + the spell he cast. And your 3/2 dies to 1 mana spells or in a sweep effect.
Against anything B/X, Languish is going to be what you fear most. Take it real slow and milk your Recruiters and Trackers every chance you get. Don't over-commit to the board.
Bounding Krasis and/or Reflector Mages should be sideboarded out against creatureless/near creatureless decks for Tireless Tracker and Den Protector. Anything that has more longevity.
Lantern Scouts single handedly destroys some archetypes. It's not useful 99% of the time, but that 1% it's killer.
Current sideboard assuming Jim Davis's list: 4x Negate, 3x Clip Wings, 2 Den Protector, 2 Lantern Scout, 2 Tireless Tracker, 1 Dromoka's Command, 1 Ojutai's Command. The Trackers, Protectors, and Ojutai's Command are for the really grindy games that seem to make up MTGO. Negates for those people in love with 5+ mana planeswalkers. Lantern Scouts against burn. Dromoka's Command in for Ojutai's Command is really all you need for the main list to wreck something like W/X Humans or other midrange decks.
As a poster says above, -1 Plains +1 forest. Not having Avacyn mana on turn 5 isn't a deal breaker, but not getting green mana early is crippling.
W/X Humans finds it really hard to force through damage on the ground against Bant Company. The board quickly grinds to a halt come turn 4 because Humans can't just sit back forever, so Humans tends to get a really bad trade due to CoCo or Dromo's Command which stalls everything. Bant protects a Nissa and Jace and quickly buries W/X Humans in card advantage. The bant dudes look really terrible, but they work well in practice.
Blinking Blade Splicers with angels means you can't realistically attack until turn 7 or later with a Dungrove, and they just can block too profitably otherwise.
I'm switching to the dark side.
Play commander if you really want to face a diverse deck each time, and on a more casual level. Buy a pre-con and customize it. The "devour for power" deck has a lot of staples of the format, and I've won the majority of the games I've used without modifying that deck at all. It's not an expensive format, as the better cards are the "forgotten rares" in most formats. Also, there are often great substitutions you can make with cheaper cards (Oblivion Stone in lieu of Pernicious Deed).
From best to worst:
Devour for Power:
The best deck [ie: most competitive] out of the preconstructs by a mile: Mimeoplasm offers ridiculous utility and game-ending power all in one package. The deck combines the best commander, with powerful global effects (Gravepact, Butcher of Malakir, Syphon Flesh/Mind, Unnerve), the best card drawing (FoF, Syphon Mind, and every mill spell works awesomely as a pseudo-draw), multiple types of evasion for every creature you play, and a game-ender (living death). The mana-base is very solid as well.
Political Puppets: Some of the spells are some of the best among all the decks for this format (Chaos Warp/Oblation/Insurrection/Reins/Wild), and it offers a very unique playstyle that can be very rewarding in its' own right.
However, kill Zedruu twice, and there's no realistic way the deck can win since it's difficult to hit 8 mana to re-cast him with this mana base. And the whole deck is built around him, which means there are some pretty weak cards when he's not on the table. Ruhan not only doesn't fit with what the deck does, he's also just bad on top of that. Numot as commander runs into the mana problem again.
Mirror Mastery:The deck sports a solid and consistent mana-base paired with a pretty good commander. The support spells are more what's lacking here. Copying most of the creatures and spells looks impressive until you realize that other decks are just doing that by default and don't need to copy to be good. Damage-based removal isn't that great in this format, either.
Also, as has been said: if the deck doesn't get a ramp card, it performs quite poorly.
Counterpunch: The deck gums up the ground really well: decks without evasion will find it nearly impossible to get through.
However, the deck has a big weakness against fliers, creating 1/1's isn't the most powerful of game-plans, and the deck is split between the token theme and creatures for Karador which create some awkward draws.
Heavenly Inferno: Total crap. It's just a pile of random guys and removal. Losing Kaalia twice is practically game-over since the mana-base can't handle all the 7+ casting cost creatures: they depend on her for acceleration, which is also why you can't use the other commanders. However, even if you get her to stick, dropping a Voice of All (or often, nothing!) is quite embarrassing.
Vs ANT/TES:
Generally I find Ancestor's Chosen to be sub-par due to them IGG looping for infinite, or just storming for a million due to casting Ad Nauseum from 20 life and drawing the whole deck. Primus/Terastodon are as good as advertised.
I've never won a game with T0 Leyline of Sanctity vs ANT/TES. Once they get going, it's just trivial for them to Truth it.
Tried Thorn of Amethyst. Bad, even when landing. It has the same problems as using mana for CT: it slows you down a whole turn. When the game lasts 3 turns max, using one of them to possibly hit a card isn't worth doing. This is why Duress + CT didn't work either.
Currently trying Mindbreak Trap even though many have recommended against it. My theory is that I am rarely Duress'ed, and my opponents don't play around it online. It should be significantly worse in G3 since the surprise is gone, but it'll at least force them to side in something/anything and in all likelihood slow them down a turn.
I run 2x Blue Sun's Zenith and I really like it, especially since online everyone seems to be running 4x Halt Order/Steel Sabatoge which really bones Architect.
Vivisection sounds quite good too. Not sure which is better.
EDIT: Why not just add Tezzeret? God I'm dumb. ><
You're counting 12 draw spells against 4 and claiming victory. Why? The Winds version has Coliseum plus Breakthough as well, but you don't count those draws. It's not even remotely comparable since you add up every good draw for the Tribe/Imp version, and only one good draw for the Winds version. Apples to Apples would be to do the math for a good breakthrough draw vs a good winds draw. I did the math, and to keep this short, it came out closer than expected: 19% probability of getting a good Breakthrough draw in Tribe/Imp or a good Winds draw in the opening 7. 22% for the winds draw if I include Land+Careful Study hands instead of just Land x2.
I mulligan the normal amount. Number of keepers feels the same, but the power level of the keepers is different.
I don't feel comfortable going to 3-4 with either version, but the good draws are possible with both: Outlet/land/Dredge/Draw or Winds/Dredge/Land/(Land/Study). Going to 5 with either version is fine for me.
Post-board games are fantastic with Winds. Bounce the hate, generate a massive board in one turn.
Most hate is all the same post-board:
1. Bounce hate (EoT if possible)
2. Generate huge board
3. Discard annoying things from their hand
They have 1-2 turns to top-deck the answer.
When the opponent gets double Crypt or something T1, that's difficult.
NEW VERSION:
4 Breakthrough
4 Careful Study
4 Tolarian Winds
4 Bridge from Below
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
1 Golgari Thug
1 Darkblast
2 Dakmor Salvage
3 Dread Return
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Bloodghast
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
1 Sphinx of Lost Truths
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 Polluted Delta
4 Darkslick Shores
3 Island
1 Swamp
4 Chain of Vapor
4 Duress
3 Tormod's Crypt
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
1 Terastodon
1 Ancestor's Chosen
1 Darkblast
The Big Changes:
Ichorid out, Bloodghast in
Reasoning: Lack of Ichorid food was annoying, but the real pain point was that I was so dependent on Narcomoebas since I was generating a massive single turn. Post board this was especially annoying: dredge 40 cards but find zero 'moebas would mean I auto-lose next turn when my opponent replays his Crypt after it was bounced. =(
With this version, you generally plan for turn 3 to be huge post-board. EoT bounce their hate, Winds/BT on your turn, lay a land to get the bloodghasts. If you can plan your big turn around a fetch-land, it gets crazy pretty quick.
Brainstorm out
Reasoning: Bleh. It wasn't necessary and clogged the deck. I got too cute with that one.
Dredge Utility Package of Darkblast/Dakmor x2/Thug
Reasoning: Obviously the lands combo with bloodghast. But I've been really impressed the more I play with dredge how often Darkblast is useful. Killing weenies like Cursecatcher, Lackey/Fanatic/MWM/Prospector, Mangara/Bodyguard, Grim Lavamancer, and Goblin Welder has been fantastic. Killing my Thugs/Moebas in response is pretty kewl too. Thinking about taking out a Stinkweed Imp to fit in a 2nd Darkblast, but the dredge package is already weak so I dunno. Thug I consider utility because he's easy to play if you need another body to sacrifice, and he sets up narcomoeba.
Thought about putting in Life from the Loam, but the more I thought about it the more I realized it didn't fit. I rarely use both Dakmors anyway.
Sideboarding in general:
-1 Flame-kin Zealot
-1 Sphinx
-1 Dread Return
-1 Breakthrough
+4 Chain of Vapor
Breakthrough or Darkblast are next to get cut if you need to bring in Iona/Terestodon/Chosen. Iona comes in against mono-colored decks, Chosen and Terastodon are judgement calls. Darkblast replaces a Stinkweed Imp in the Goblin/Elf/WW/Zoo matchup. Duress comes in for Darkblast+Breakthrough in the combo matchup.
Summary:
The only decks that have been giving me problems lately are other combo decks. Ooze Reanimator, Show and Tell, ANT. Brainstorm hides the important pieces from discard. Natural Order variants are usually too slow.
YES, because you just put over half your grave in the 'yard. That's the point.
You are right that it's not faster. However, there are more "power" draws with winds.
Correct again, but missing the point: who cares what you have in your hand after winds; the library is now in the graveyard. Just kill them.
Pick one you want in a card: dredge half your deck, or have a body to sacrifice.
There are certainly diminishing returns at 4 cards with Winds. Dredging for 1 a turn really isn't much better though: you're pretty much screwed at that point.
And a deck with Winds still has CT/CS + BT, which is the only "optimal" draw you can possibly get anyway at 4 cards with a tribe/imp version.
Unless you specifically have Breakthrough and another land, wasteland is a timewalk for every version of dredge. You must have some amazing one turn dredges that I'm not getting to be this impressed by dredging only in your draw step.
Playing Winds is about increasing the number of explosive draws.
My winrate drastically increased with Winds post-board. Playing Winds is the best way to paris in-game.
I'll admit, DDD is harder if they do play relic T1.
Here's why I don't need a permanent discard outlet:I'm constantly dredging a LOT of new cards into the graveyard. Dredging for 6 a turn isn't what I'm after. I'm going to power my whole library into the yard and kill them.
Only need them a few times. 3 are in there to get them consistently a few time, not consistently many times. Would I like more Ichorid food? Yes, I even point out the lack of it.
Post-board it becomes very relevant when your opponent taps out on his turn because it's "safe" and you know he plays with sorcery speed hate.
This is why G2 is so hard, but it's harder for every version because of this. Don't say Winds is particularly prone to this.
I guess I just need to get better at flipping over Bridges/Ichorids as consistently as you do when dredging for 6 a turn.
Firestorm is completely unnecessary, as is Ancient Grudge: if a deck can't mess with your graveyard or slow your draw, they aren't going to win. I'm not playing their game, they are playing mine.
<<<<<<<<<<<INSERT NERD RAGE HERE>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tireless Tribe vs Tolarian Winds hand mulliganed to 5:
On turn two mulligan to 5:
Tribes: 6 cards dredged
Winds: 18 cards dredged
On turn two no mulligan:
Tribes: 6 cards dredged
Winds: 25-29 cards dredged
Even when you claim mulligans hurt the deck, Winds still comes out waaaaay ahead. Tribes are a means to an end, nothing more. The point is to put the library into the graveyard. As you can see from the numbers, Tribes/Imp isn't the best way to accomplish that.
And your claim that drawing a 3 card combo isn't harder or more inconsistent than a 2 card combo...
Your opponent has access to black. Does he bring in Extirpate?
All opponents have access to Ravenous Trap, Faerie Macabre, and Bojuka Bog.
Is your opponent relying on Jotun Grunt / Mogg Fanatic instead of dedicated hate?
I have seen a ton of variation in SB plans for my opponents, and Chains is almost always live even if they don't have permanent-based hate. Bounce/Discard their hate, develop a huge board in one turn, and all their hate is now almost useless.
Fighting hate cards one by one is just painful.
I probably didn't make it clear enough: Breakthrough needs to be replaced post-board, and Brainstorm is the best because it's almost as good at dredging. It doubles as a searcher and a power dredger.
Either with DDD, Careful Study, or light dredging with Winds. You don't have to dredge every draw step. Just dredge a few and draw the rest normally. It does make playing against Extirpate harder since you expose Bridge/Ichorid, but against everything else it's way easier. Mostly though, Winds is for taking advantage of the window you're given once you've bounced/discarded their hate. If Iona/Terastodon is coming in, I go down to 3 Winds.
The plan isn't to force them to "waste" it. Cabal Therapy them and take it. If the coast is clear, you straight up kill them. If they play their hate, at EoT you bounced it, Winds, and develop a huge board in one turn. Slow dredging with this deck isn't the goal. Build a hand, clear the way with Chain/Cabal, kill them before they find more hate.
Think of it this way: for one card (Tribe or Winds) you are getting X discards. I choose to pay 1 more mana and have all those discards at once, with draws added on for free.
Note: I think Ancient Grudge / Nature's Claim is a really poor plan post board vs Crypt/Relic specifically, but everyone seems to have accepted it. I've tested tons of games, and it hasn't worked nearly as well as advertised because the only option is slooooowly rebuilding and hoping you don't get hit again. Well, slow dredging just gives them that much more time to find more hate and/or kill you. It's fine if both of you start with the hate and anti-hate in hand and you can force the issue before it does too much damage, but slow dredging just doesn't get the job done most of the time. Even something like Top-Fetchlands will find pressure faster than dredging 6 a turn.