Good job town. Tammy, thanks for actually responding to my questions after the game. It was frustrating having you gut accuse me after you had cleared me due to evidence (read: see tons of townie points for me but suspect them) yet do the exact opposite with swishh (who I was convinced was scum), but not try to advance the game at all.
I do understand you were having issues with not trusting your cop results, but I don't see why one townie thing done by swishh (which I don't think was particularly townie - I mean, Sir Karn did something similar in this very game) outweigh all of the points against him.
I generally try not to place my vote until I am confident in my read. My confidence in swishh being scum came from my reread, hence the vote. I did not want to stifle discussion though, so I took him off L-1 while he contributed. The contribution was lacking, so the vote went back on.
Likewise with archae, for him, this has settled into a swissh/rhand dichotomy. He'll vote for either of you today, and the other tomorrow. This is a beautiful position for scum archae to have himself in. No one suspecting him, Kank advocating for him, and no one throwing anything his way. (And as an aside the last time I saw someone advocate so hard for someone that they would prefer their own lynch over their town read, was when I was bussing my partner and a townie was begging me to lynch him instead of my partner.)
Your anecdote does not apply here, as there is only one scum left, presumably.
I'm going to put up a bunch of WIFOM, but I'm doing it anyway. Feel free to ignore:
You have cleared Kankennon due to his belief in his reads and stunts. He was nearly the lynch Day2 before I came in and supported him. I doubt he would be alive if I did not do so.
You mentioned how the interactions of Sir Karn and Cythare nearly clear me, based on evidence (not gut, of course). You then say I would have to be playing a stellar game if scum. Wouldn't it be the case that the entire scum team would be playing stellar in that case? To follow that, let me say: no, they have not.
I know I'm town, and everyone else does but you. It's frustrating because you are waffling on swishh and Rhand when the rest of us are attacking them (and note that I expressed that those two were my scum reads before anyone else - it would have to be pretty fortunate for me as scum to preempt town sentiment so strongly), but you haven't pushed your other 'gut' reads (read: me or Cantripmancer) to try to deal with this waffling issue you're having.
At the moment it could be as simple as everyone else is going at it and defending themselves, and there's not a whole lot of tripping over themselves in doing it. Because you're not really involved, I worry town is beating each other up. The problem is its endgame and everyone's fighting to survive, so sometimes the rhetoric and arguments are hard to distinguish between town and scum. It's why I want to read back through day one.
These are reasons why your gut might like me for scum3. My question is why your gut is singling me out; again, you don't need to explain it now, but I would be interested to know, especially after the game is over.
Rancid Raptor's ability and early confirmed status was a huge weapon for the town, but Rancid Raptor was not one of the top contributors or scumhunters for the town. I was frustrated because I would have liked to see a confirmed town with that ability creating reads and trying to lead the town; I feel like that was not the case with Rancid Raptor, who I found to largely take a backseat in this game and rarely stick his/her neck out.
I'm not sure I said everything along those lines before, but that is what bothered me - it felt like a squandered opportunity. That said, I still feel confident that we will find the last scum.
Along those lines, your post reads a bit curt and malicious. It might be confirmation bias, but it comes at a time when Tammy says she likes me for scum.
I want to reread day one again, but right now my gut is s-c-r-e-a-m-i-n-g for archae's head.
If you can try to zero in on what about my play makes your gut scream me as scum, I'd appreciate it. Even after the game - any insight you can give would be great.
Think about the day that karn claimed, who did he argue should be lynched? Cythare right? The goon over the cop. (I might be remembering this wrong, I'll have to check.) Also, who did rr not like yesterday? Archae. It would be wise to get rid of someone who controlled two votes that was suspicious of you based on your stance for the karn/cythare situation.
I've already explained my position on the Sir Karn/Cythare thing. Rancid Raptor questioned me about it, and I still stand by my view. I'll ask you the same thing I asked him/her: Are you thinking I'm scum solely because I pushed Cythare over Sir Karn, or do you disagree with my reasoning. (Another way to ask the question: if Cythare had been a scum PR and Sir Karn had been a goon, would you still be suspicious of me?)
I'm not sure what you're implying by saying I didn't like Rancid Raptor yesterday. I was frustrated with his/her play as a confirmed town PR, for sure.
Again, I am willing to vote Rhand and swishh, but no one else. I do see the value in lynching Rhand over swishh toDay, what with swishh being cop-confirmed; I am fairly confident that the last scum is a Godfather, and swishh's play has been more suspect to me.
Oh and btw real quick before I pass out...reading through a game under the assumption one is scum is faulty. You're not properly casing that way, you're looking for things to confirm your already biased opinion. This is faulty and dangerous because if you start with the assumption, you're 99% of the time going to find the proof you need to support your assumption whether it is true or not. I could literally make a case on every single one of you here, and most of them would be wrong because only one of you can be scum.
It is important to repeat the process with everyone (or at least everyone you reasonably suspect). That way, you can see whom you find the scummiest empirically.
This process is what reversed my position and led me to view swishh as scummier than Rhand - and note here that the process actually made one player look scummier than before another look less scummy than before.
Now, I haven't reread under the assumption that you/Kankennon/Cantripmancer are scum, so there is an amount of confirmation bias here, but I think my point still stands.
swissh would have to be a really ballsy scum player to offer this. I've seen scum offer to be the lynch...offer to be investigated as a way to not have it happen, but rarely like this. In fact, I've offered to be the lynch before lylo probably half a dozen times as town, though noone has ever taken up the offer before, but never have I done it as scum.
By that reasoning, Kankennon would also be cleared.
I'm not 100% sure on the correct terminology, but whenever I have said Godfather, I meant a scum player who shows a result of town to the cop. There was at least one in Basic 69, as you found.
OK here's what I'm thinking. I'm probably the best lynch candidate for toDay. If we lynch someone else (preferably Rhand) and it's wrong, I'll absolutely most certainly be lynched toMorrow. Get me out of the way while we still have a mislynch and we avoid this. So if we assume I'm the lynch, Tammy is almost certainly going to be the NK. Even if we are looking for a Godfather, keeping Tammy around instead of any other player is detrimental for scum because Tammy isn't going to be a lynch candidate toMorrow, and it's scum's prerogative to have the most potential lynch candidates alive. In this case, toMorrow will be Archae, Cantrip, Rhand, and Kank. My preferred course of action would be to lynch Rhand, but it would still be mylo and sheeping me on this is just short-sighted. Here's where my case will come in.
The other possibility is that Tammy is not killed. In this case, if s/he gets a guilty on someone, obviously that would be the proper lynch. The only exception to this is if the final scum is a Framer (which would explain why Tammy is still alive toDay), but the gambit is too high - town is going to lynch any guilty, and it's almost equally likely for Tammy to investigate the Framer as the Framer's target. This being the case, we return to most likely course of action for scum to be to kill Tammy.
Now the only other thing that can happen is if Tammy gets a town report on someone - Kank, Rhand, or Archae. This will be sufficient proof that the final scum is indeed a Godfather. Here we'll ignore Tammy's reports and rely on pure scumhunting.
Of course this is all assuming we lynch me toDay. Given what Archae has said, I'm going to assume lynching Kank is out of the question. I'm totally fine with that, but there are a few aspects of his play toDay I've found problematic. These are:
1. Instead of properly casing me, he said that he went through the game to read my posts under the assumption that I was scum. This is not casing. This is misconstruing.
2. He said he thought yesterDay that the final scum was a Godfather. There was absolutely no evidence or reason for this belief. And this is entirely inconsistent with his admitted and successful attempt to have Tammy investigate me.
3. His willingness to bet his own lynch on the game is riddled with wifom. I see this from town a lot (Polski in CCM7 comes to mind). That being said, Polski was dead wrong with his wager.
4. His scum read on me is new. YesterDay he said I was one of his strongest town reads. Whether this is true or not he'll have to confirm. But this is further inconsistent with his attempt to have Tammy investigate me and his newly stated belief that there was a Godfather and that Tammy's report confirms this. There's no logic to it.
For all the above stated reasons, if Rhand is not the final scum, I don't see how it's not Kank. I would really like Archae's input on these 4 points, preferably BEFORE Kank has a chance to weigh in.
The last thing on my agenda will be to make my case on Rhand. I'll do this on my lunch break tomorrow at work.
I definitely said something akin to #1 (and Cantripmancer took issue with it). I'm not sure if you are conflating me and Kankennon, but if not, I don't see issue with it because it is something I did as well.
2 is null for me when it's Kankennon doing it. I have seen Kankennon claim things like this (wherein s/he claims to have known what is going on all along when it really seems to be outright lying) as both town and scum. See Basics 69 and 70 for examples of both.
3: Again, coming from Kankennon, I'm not so sure it is scummy. While I think it was not a good play, Kankennon's gambit on entering can from a town mentality I believe (and so did you), and is wholly similar in nature to his/her post here.
4 is much more interesting to me. I'll go back and check out Kankennon's view on you yesterDay, and see if I can see where s/he did want you investigated and if the read on you was genuine.
Can you tell me why you didn't like the Kankennon wagon earlier this game? I think you and I were the initial detractors of that wagon. When you look back, do you still think the same?
Also some of the points about swissh are kinda nitpicky. For instance that today comment. I think it's very clear what he meant, today we wouldn't lynch a cop clear. Tomorrow maybe, but today when it's not a necessity to look outside of the clears is pretty self-evident and I don't get why it's being ripped apart?
Maybe I'm not following it. But I think the argument is bad.
It's not an argument, really. I know I like to be nit-picky, but it's very rarely about the point in question and often more about how a player reacts to being under questioning. It didn't help that he never addressed it directly despite my repeated questioning.
I think what he meant is clear, but I was trying to understand the motivation underneath his statement. As I said previously, it read to me as if swishh wanted to not be lynched toDay on principle but wanted the option to mislynch a cop-confirmed town player toMorrow.
I may be tunneling on swishh a bit, and I still have yet to find time to read his town games. I put in a fair amount of work during the Night, and came to the conclusion that swishh was most likely scum3 over Rhand. Still, as stated earlier, I am confident that one of those two is scum3 and will vote for either (and not anyone else).
As swishh has promised some good content, for the time being: Unvote
Also, Kank as far as the town reading someone due to a gip, he saw a post of rr's in which he interpreted in one way and linked it to a gip. Why I think that's more likely to come from town is because in order for that to come from scum he would have had to pre-meditatively thought to himself, I'll connect this post to him being town based on a something that I've seen him do in another game. And I find that unlikely and the way he did it unlikely. It seemed like it was an immediate reaction to a post rather than a premeditated, I'll read him as town for this. Also, he never took back his town read on RR, he retracted the reasoning for why he did it. IE he misinterpreted a theory which made him think he was town, but by the time he realized he was wrong about that, rr was already confirmed town.
You haven't addressed my questions to you on this subject. What do you think of Sir Karn's defense of Void earlier in this game?
I believe swishh is scum3, but could also see it being Rhand. I will not be voting anyone besides those two (unless we lynch one and the other is NKed - in that case, I have no idea what I would do).
This game especially is frustrating because I have investigation results that are coming under question. So, where cantrip and swissh should be the people I can trust the most right now, I can't or maybe can't. who knows. And even though I investigated swissh because I suspected him the most, him being scum doesn't feel right to me, mostly because of the reason he gave the town read on rr on day one.
How do you think swishh's defense of Rancid Raptor is different than Sir Karn's defense of Void, aside from the pressure on each player?
And noone else is worried about the people I'm worried about, which makes me feel like I'm just completely off track.
I know you think I may be scum, and no one else agrees. Are you talking about me here? If so, I'm happy to prove to you that I am town. What are you struggling with re: me?
It's not possible for us to be "forced" to lynch Tammy or someone with a town report. What's that have to do with anything?
I didn't imply it. I outright said we shouldn't lynch a cop-confirmed town because there's not sufficient reason to believe there's a Godfather. I see why CCM7 had one - Doc + Cop is a broken combination without unreliable reports. If for some reason Tammy isn't the NK, gets a town report on Rhand, then yeah.
You yourself believe that there is most likely a Godfather.
Weird by saying that a Godfather is most likely what we're looking for right now?
Do you still believe a Godfather is the most likely case? You seem to want to operate under the assumption that we can trust Tammy's results, which is counter to what you believe to be 'most likely'. Can you explain that for me?
Either way, explain why you specifically used the word 'toDay' is your quote 'We're not lynching a Cop-confirmed town player toDay' (reference). You think a Godfather is most likely - why would you operate under that assumption toDay, but not necessarily toMorrow?
What? The three points from the post I quoted would need to all happen for the town to be forced to lynch either Tammy or a cop-confirmed townie.
You implied that we should not lynch cop-confirmed townies specifically toDay. I am asking if you think the only scenario in which you would consider lynching cop-confirmed townie toMorrow is if that is the only option (a la satisfying all of those three points), or if you have another reason for specifying that 'we're not lynching cop-confirmed town player toDay'.
I'm not asking what you think will happen, but what you meant when you originally posted about not lynching cop-confirmed townies toDay.
typo. If Tammy isn't killed*. ToDay we can lynch Rhand. If that's wrong, my money's on Kank. If we lynch me (or Cantrip), I'm not sure what toMorrow will look like. Probably Rhand and Kank going at each other with you (Archae) and Cantrip trying to make sense of it all.
We have 3 non-cop-confirmed players right now. So by specifying 'toDay' in the original post in question, you're saying that it might be the case that 1. we don't lynch scum toDay (and lynch a non-cop-confirmed townie, leaving 2), 2. Tammy is not NKed and investigates another townie (leaving 1 non-cop-confirmed player), 3. scum3 opts to NK a non-cop-confirmed townie, so that everyone knows 100% that scum3 is a Godfather.
Am I correct that you are espousing ignoring the possibility of a Godfather except in this above corner case?
okay so I know that i was scum reading swishh the most yesterday, but there was always one thing bugging me.
him reading rr based on an misinterpretation of his post/theory that had to do with a gip. i'm having a hard time getting past that.
Does the fact that his read came from a misinterpretation make it more believable to you?
i'm also having a hard time getting past the idea that i can't trust my investigation results and want to go cry in a corner for a while.
Well, it is possible that there is no Godfather here and scum3 was not afraid of being investigated, and was instead more afraid of Rancid Raptor's ability. However, I think you should definitely consider the possibility that there is a Godfather, as it seems the most likely case to me.
Because if we mislynch and by some stroke of insanity Tammy ISN'T we may have no choice. ToDay we have a choice.
I don't understand what you're trying to say here. If Tammy isn't what? What choice do we have toDay that we don't have toMorrow? I'm really missing something here.
I mean it's just that if you look at day two, when the kank wagon was falling apart and the Karn wagon was rising, Cantrip was still holding out for Kank to go through. He suspected Rodemy a bunch as well, and didn't suspect Cythare.
Other than that I think he looks townie, but if my investigations are going to be ignored then I don't know why he's not being looked at.
Cantripmancer had a scum read on Kankennon and was upset that the wagon fell apart. I had a very town read on Cantripmancer, and his/her willingness to stick with a view despite prevailing opinion is not indicative of scum to me either.
In short, Cantripmancer is still a potential scum3, but not in my opinion. And that opinion comes from his/her play, not from your result.
I do understand you were having issues with not trusting your cop results, but I don't see why one townie thing done by swishh (which I don't think was particularly townie - I mean, Sir Karn did something similar in this very game) outweigh all of the points against him.
Your anecdote does not apply here, as there is only one scum left, presumably.
I'm going to put up a bunch of WIFOM, but I'm doing it anyway. Feel free to ignore:
You have cleared Kankennon due to his belief in his reads and stunts. He was nearly the lynch Day2 before I came in and supported him. I doubt he would be alive if I did not do so.
You mentioned how the interactions of Sir Karn and Cythare nearly clear me, based on evidence (not gut, of course). You then say I would have to be playing a stellar game if scum. Wouldn't it be the case that the entire scum team would be playing stellar in that case? To follow that, let me say: no, they have not.
I know I'm town, and everyone else does but you. It's frustrating because you are waffling on swishh and Rhand when the rest of us are attacking them (and note that I expressed that those two were my scum reads before anyone else - it would have to be pretty fortunate for me as scum to preempt town sentiment so strongly), but you haven't pushed your other 'gut' reads (read: me or Cantripmancer) to try to deal with this waffling issue you're having.
Do something.
And, to follow that advice myself:
Vote: swishh
These are reasons why your gut might like me for scum3. My question is why your gut is singling me out; again, you don't need to explain it now, but I would be interested to know, especially after the game is over.
I'm not sure I said everything along those lines before, but that is what bothered me - it felt like a squandered opportunity. That said, I still feel confident that we will find the last scum.
Along those lines, your post reads a bit curt and malicious. It might be confirmation bias, but it comes at a time when Tammy says she likes me for scum.
If you can try to zero in on what about my play makes your gut scream me as scum, I'd appreciate it. Even after the game - any insight you can give would be great.
I've already explained my position on the Sir Karn/Cythare thing. Rancid Raptor questioned me about it, and I still stand by my view. I'll ask you the same thing I asked him/her: Are you thinking I'm scum solely because I pushed Cythare over Sir Karn, or do you disagree with my reasoning. (Another way to ask the question: if Cythare had been a scum PR and Sir Karn had been a goon, would you still be suspicious of me?)
I'm not sure what you're implying by saying I didn't like Rancid Raptor yesterday. I was frustrated with his/her play as a confirmed town PR, for sure.
Again, I am willing to vote Rhand and swishh, but no one else. I do see the value in lynching Rhand over swishh toDay, what with swishh being cop-confirmed; I am fairly confident that the last scum is a Godfather, and swishh's play has been more suspect to me.
It is important to repeat the process with everyone (or at least everyone you reasonably suspect). That way, you can see whom you find the scummiest empirically.
This process is what reversed my position and led me to view swishh as scummier than Rhand - and note here that the process actually made one player look scummier than before another look less scummy than before.
Now, I haven't reread under the assumption that you/Kankennon/Cantripmancer are scum, so there is an amount of confirmation bias here, but I think my point still stands.
By that reasoning, Kankennon would also be cleared.
I'm not 100% sure on the correct terminology, but whenever I have said Godfather, I meant a scum player who shows a result of town to the cop. There was at least one in Basic 69, as you found.
I definitely said something akin to #1 (and Cantripmancer took issue with it). I'm not sure if you are conflating me and Kankennon, but if not, I don't see issue with it because it is something I did as well.
2 is null for me when it's Kankennon doing it. I have seen Kankennon claim things like this (wherein s/he claims to have known what is going on all along when it really seems to be outright lying) as both town and scum. See Basics 69 and 70 for examples of both.
3: Again, coming from Kankennon, I'm not so sure it is scummy. While I think it was not a good play, Kankennon's gambit on entering can from a town mentality I believe (and so did you), and is wholly similar in nature to his/her post here.
4 is much more interesting to me. I'll go back and check out Kankennon's view on you yesterDay, and see if I can see where s/he did want you investigated and if the read on you was genuine.
Can you tell me why you didn't like the Kankennon wagon earlier this game? I think you and I were the initial detractors of that wagon. When you look back, do you still think the same?
It's not an argument, really. I know I like to be nit-picky, but it's very rarely about the point in question and often more about how a player reacts to being under questioning. It didn't help that he never addressed it directly despite my repeated questioning.
I think what he meant is clear, but I was trying to understand the motivation underneath his statement. As I said previously, it read to me as if swishh wanted to not be lynched toDay on principle but wanted the option to mislynch a cop-confirmed town player toMorrow.
I may be tunneling on swishh a bit, and I still have yet to find time to read his town games. I put in a fair amount of work during the Night, and came to the conclusion that swishh was most likely scum3 over Rhand. Still, as stated earlier, I am confident that one of those two is scum3 and will vote for either (and not anyone else).
As swishh has promised some good content, for the time being:
Unvote
You haven't addressed my questions to you on this subject. What do you think of Sir Karn's defense of Void earlier in this game?
I believe swishh is scum3, but could also see it being Rhand. I will not be voting anyone besides those two (unless we lynch one and the other is NKed - in that case, I have no idea what I would do).
How do you think swishh's defense of Rancid Raptor is different than Sir Karn's defense of Void, aside from the pressure on each player?
I know you think I may be scum, and no one else agrees. Are you talking about me here? If so, I'm happy to prove to you that I am town. What are you struggling with re: me?
Your declarative statement reads as a threat here.
You yourself believe that there is most likely a Godfather.
Either way, explain why you specifically used the word 'toDay' is your quote 'We're not lynching a Cop-confirmed town player toDay' (reference). You think a Godfather is most likely - why would you operate under that assumption toDay, but not necessarily toMorrow?
You implied that we should not lynch cop-confirmed townies specifically toDay. I am asking if you think the only scenario in which you would consider lynching cop-confirmed townie toMorrow is if that is the only option (a la satisfying all of those three points), or if you have another reason for specifying that 'we're not lynching cop-confirmed town player toDay'.
I'm not asking what you think will happen, but what you meant when you originally posted about not lynching cop-confirmed townies toDay.
We have 3 non-cop-confirmed players right now. So by specifying 'toDay' in the original post in question, you're saying that it might be the case that 1. we don't lynch scum toDay (and lynch a non-cop-confirmed townie, leaving 2), 2. Tammy is not NKed and investigates another townie (leaving 1 non-cop-confirmed player), 3. scum3 opts to NK a non-cop-confirmed townie, so that everyone knows 100% that scum3 is a Godfather.
Am I correct that you are espousing ignoring the possibility of a Godfather except in this above corner case?
Does the fact that his read came from a misinterpretation make it more believable to you?
Well, it is possible that there is no Godfather here and scum3 was not afraid of being investigated, and was instead more afraid of Rancid Raptor's ability. However, I think you should definitely consider the possibility that there is a Godfather, as it seems the most likely case to me.
I don't understand what you're trying to say here. If Tammy isn't what? What choice do we have toDay that we don't have toMorrow? I'm really missing something here.
Cantripmancer had a scum read on Kankennon and was upset that the wagon fell apart. I had a very town read on Cantripmancer, and his/her willingness to stick with a view despite prevailing opinion is not indicative of scum to me either.
In short, Cantripmancer is still a potential scum3, but not in my opinion. And that opinion comes from his/her play, not from your result.