UW control matchup, well the Timely Reinforcements counterplay we already established. I think exquisite firecraft has won enough games for me with a significant blue presence in my area that if you see it enough, throw in two. You'll be glad you did. Your ideal starting hand contains two creatures so you can force removal and reduce their countermagic options, particularly post board where dispel is likely going to be a factor. Finally, board in path to exile, two copies or three. The common UW control sb will bring in cheap counters like dispel and 1-2 baneslayer angel/lyra dawnbringer. They will most likely tap out for it, given that it easily can win a game. Board out searing blaze, bring in firecraft and path.
Spirits: I see this a lot, people wanting to control the board. Spirits has no lifelink creatures, no lifegain, and rattlechains doesn't stop searing blaze from hitting the face. Race. You are faster. The only creatures worth taking the time to kill are hierarch and baby thalia. Spell Queller is annoying, sure, but it also sits in the same spot on the curve as CoCo. Either let them CoCo and respond with damage, or let a critical mass build up and suspend a rift bolt or two to force the matter. Queller is one of those cards that players often misuse because they reeeaaaally want that exile effect when sometimes you just want to plant it. Board out eidolon on the draw, higher-cost burn like helix, skullcrack or skewer on the play in some combination. Eidolon is still a fine turn two play going first. If your opponent is forced to rely on aether vial, they'll never really be able to swarm the board. Their curve is a bit too high. I'd bring in searing blood from the side, path only if you don't have blood.
I think twenty lands makes sense now with the ability to mitigate flood with a playset of canyons. I think a build running less, like my most recent one, could stick to nineteen. On a related note, I am just really underwhelmed by grim lavamancer and did not miss him at all. It is a usable card in the humans matchup, but beyond that there's just no tiered deck where I'm excited to draw it. It's okay in the mirror, but I'd prefer searing blood.
@conquistador, I had a chance to win the urza matchup. The chances were there. Game three I actually had two draw steps between a normal draw and a cracked relic of progenitus to bolt the final three life out of him. I did not see that. So quite literally, another moment where a playset of canyons can mean the difference between winning and losing.
I ordered four canyons but only two reached me. The refund kicked in, but with hogaak I didn't know how much modern I would play to justify buying. Now I'm thinking a bit differently. The matches went like this...
R1: vs burn (W2-1)
Lost the die roll and had to mulligan in every single game. Still, though, a skullcracked helix let me get there game one. Game two he had the searing blaze early to turn the corner on my swiftspear and just got there a bit faster. Game three my mull had a great draw, two lands, skullcrack, goblin guide, swiftspear, searing blaze on the play. I rolled over him pretty hard there.
R2: vs BR prison (W2-1)
This one was weird. I kept a slow hand game one that let him not only play chalice on one, but chalice on two while I couldn't quite get there. Game two I am on the play and go swiftspear into eidolon. He got stuck on two lands and had to double ritual into karn the great creator to grab an ensnaring bridge, hoping to stop my creatures but losing four in the progress. I finished with a couple burn spells. Game three he went for a turn one chalice with SSG, turn two brutality, fully escalated, but discarded two blood moons to get there. He then played rabblemaster, but I had a good anti-chalice hand of double eidolon, couple rift bolts and skewers etc that I got there. Again, he got stuck on two lands for a turn or two.
R3: vs Grixis Urza (L2-1)
I don't know anything about the deck. I haven't played modern in two months. It showed. Let's move on
R4: vs UW Control (W2-0)
Game one I get a guide into turn two double swiftspear and he never drew a board wipe. It was quick. Game two was a little weird. He did resolve a timely reinforcements while I had an eidolon out from my second turn on the draw. I was able to use a goblin guide to force blocks though and keep the spirit out there. He tries to oust his last token, which I thought was a setup for a second timely (I have skullcrack at this point) to restock on tokens. I didn't know oust gained you life and he didn't mention his life total until he went to play another spell. It was rather disjointed play where I went "wait oust gains life?" We did walk it back before it was too late so I could stop his oust lifegain. He countered the skullcrack, but I had another in play. THen he played narset and activated it, which revealed his sb'ed lyra dawnbringer. Disappointed in having to tuck away his best out, he was able to hold things off and resolvea teferi, but I attack him down to 4 and finish with exquisite firecraft.
R5: vs GW Devoted combo (W2-1)
At this point its 11p.m. I'm burnt out and couldn't tell you much other than the first two games went fairly long. Game 1 he is unable to combo because I got him to two life with an eidolon in play. He had to draw a tutor to get vizier without dying to a trigger, it didn't happen. Game 2 I screw up and could have won, punted at the last moment. Game 3 I am on the play with turn 1 guide into turn 2 searing blaze on his opening hierarch. He kept a land light hand hoping for hierarch to help but guide didn't give him one. I won in like four turns and he had to play defense the whole time.
4-1 finish, third place out of I think twenty-nine. It got me a Cavern of Souls. My only big takeaway from the list is that I want to swap one vantage and one fetch with two canyons. I had outs in round three but couldn't draw a final burn spell.
I'd still anticipate four pieces of graveyard hate to anticipate a brief resurgence of dredge plus the usual phoenix shenanigans. I am playing in a $1K this weekend celebrating a new store (with a notoriously generous owner, hell yeah). I will post results, a list, and general thoughts on Sunday. That being said...
This is going to be ******* bonkers. Hogaak warped the metagame to arguably its narrowest ever the past couple weeks. Now, though? It is wide open, and I am very curious to see what happens. Jund and UW were actually very reasonable choices lately, same with humans. I am expecting more dredge and particularly tron to try to take advantage of lowered gy disruption and increased fair decks, respectively. Along with reasonable jund and uw matchups already, burn could be rather strong in this meta. My predictions of ranking, more or less:
phoenix
tron
humans
uw
dredge
jund
burn
misc.
Partly though that is based on knowing my local meta. and to be sure, I like that setup.
I have played two paper pauper events, and am now actually considering ditching Saturday side events at SCG in favor of a weekend pauper tournament. At the very least, now my area should have several more tournaments pop up.
the nexus also had a great two-part article about unbanning fire, where virtually everyone involved in testing got annoyed at long, repetitive uninteresting playstyles...except the uw control player.
It had 189 players. (Living in California, I was unable to go.) Jody Keith and Aaron Barich (of SCG Open fame) were in the top 8 and the top 16 from what I heard.
I cannot understand the maths behind a 189 players tournament with a 1st prize being a mustang.
That top 8 looks... well it sure doesn't look like a a highly competitive tournament. (I mean, I can understand one, maybe two lower tier decks making a top 8, but sword, burn, infect and rock?)
Thopter Sword with Urza has been putting up some results by also using goblin engineer to tutor up a fast ensnaring bridge or other bullet. Infect, storm, cheerios etc are turn three combos that can race hogaak reliably enough. Burn, crazy enough, would get rolled against hogaak but is actually solid against those decks I just mentioned plus UW control. If I wasn't expecting a ton of bridge decks, but knew people would be planning for it, I'd consider burn. Still, that's a very specific meta call.
I don't think there will ever be a time where you don't want four exile gy effects. Game's changed. Grayeyard is now just another resource. What WOTC really needs to do is print more versatile cards, as they have been doing, that say, deals 2 damage or exiles two cards for one mana.
Searing Blood deals three damage and slows your opponent down. It's a tempo card, and a good one at that, in the mirror. The leyline adds the following text to every noncreature spell "this deals two damage to you." It speeds up your clock more than blood slows them down, or hell even firewalker. It also has applications against midrange decks, and versatility is key with sideboard cards.
Also, comically enough, it stops hogaak from using altar to deck you out. On turn three, on the play, they would have to target you 17 times with altar to win.
WOTC MH Team: We want to help fight broken plays and strong openers, so let's print a new force of will style card! We'll even keep it from being used in those combo decks by only allowing it to be free on an opponent's turn.
WOTC WAR Team: We need more teferi cosplayers, and this one needs a static ability. Let's reference the five mana creature teferi from Time Spiral with a three mana planeswalker!
WOTC: New players don't understand instants so let's just remove them from the game with a planeswalker.
So...this isn't anything to the effect of "this card or deck is busted" as a general concern about the future of MtG and my own opinions:
Core spoilers now already have a couple three mana planeswalkers. WOTC has appeared to get better about printing answers to them as well, if only slightly, but not to a point where I am convinced that the company does not want these to become a larger part of general play. I despise these cards, because the moment one resolves, unless you have a significant board advantage, the opponent is going to gain tangible value. A PW on an empty board with the more solid options runs the range of "sudden advantage" to "the game is over." I find them boring, and the good ones tend to consolidate fair decks into the best shells to implement them. Perhaps worst of all, I find them boring because they don't end the game by actually winning the game in a few turns, but rather generating such tremendous advantage that you might as well scoop.
3CMC walkers are becoming the new norm, and as they continue to push the envelope more and more will enter the modern format. We have gone from a point of LOTV being the only option, to now half a dozen walkers finding spots in competitive decks. I think this is only going to increase, in no small part due to the fact that WOTC is fascinated with the idea of turning its competitive game into a convention factory, including an odd fascination with cosplay. I don't give a ***** about cosplay, or fan art, or what have you.
I can handle a wide variety of styles of games. I play modern, legacy, and pauper, but my fear now is that even my easy-to-satisfy preferences won't jive anymore with the company's desire for its own *****tier version of an "MCU."
I think I am over grim lavamancer for now. I'd been running a singleton in the main, but it really is only good against humans turn 1 and not as good against anything else. I think with the canyons, I am going back to twenty lands, knowing four canyons can mitigate the occasional flood.
I had one canyon, and already witnessed the benefit. I should have the other three in the mail today. Yes, the card is good and you will want at least three
Ah, you underestimate how many of us enjoy degenerate garbage. I get to go to SCG Pittsburgh in a couple weeks, imagine what that'll look like? Glorious, glorious garbage.
Spirits: I see this a lot, people wanting to control the board. Spirits has no lifelink creatures, no lifegain, and rattlechains doesn't stop searing blaze from hitting the face. Race. You are faster. The only creatures worth taking the time to kill are hierarch and baby thalia. Spell Queller is annoying, sure, but it also sits in the same spot on the curve as CoCo. Either let them CoCo and respond with damage, or let a critical mass build up and suspend a rift bolt or two to force the matter. Queller is one of those cards that players often misuse because they reeeaaaally want that exile effect when sometimes you just want to plant it. Board out eidolon on the draw, higher-cost burn like helix, skullcrack or skewer on the play in some combination. Eidolon is still a fine turn two play going first. If your opponent is forced to rely on aether vial, they'll never really be able to swarm the board. Their curve is a bit too high. I'd bring in searing blood from the side, path only if you don't have blood.
@conquistador, I had a chance to win the urza matchup. The chances were there. Game three I actually had two draw steps between a normal draw and a cracked relic of progenitus to bolt the final three life out of him. I did not see that. So quite literally, another moment where a playset of canyons can mean the difference between winning and losing.
The List
I ordered four canyons but only two reached me. The refund kicked in, but with hogaak I didn't know how much modern I would play to justify buying. Now I'm thinking a bit differently. The matches went like this...
R1: vs burn (W2-1)
Lost the die roll and had to mulligan in every single game. Still, though, a skullcracked helix let me get there game one. Game two he had the searing blaze early to turn the corner on my swiftspear and just got there a bit faster. Game three my mull had a great draw, two lands, skullcrack, goblin guide, swiftspear, searing blaze on the play. I rolled over him pretty hard there.
R2: vs BR prison (W2-1)
This one was weird. I kept a slow hand game one that let him not only play chalice on one, but chalice on two while I couldn't quite get there. Game two I am on the play and go swiftspear into eidolon. He got stuck on two lands and had to double ritual into karn the great creator to grab an ensnaring bridge, hoping to stop my creatures but losing four in the progress. I finished with a couple burn spells. Game three he went for a turn one chalice with SSG, turn two brutality, fully escalated, but discarded two blood moons to get there. He then played rabblemaster, but I had a good anti-chalice hand of double eidolon, couple rift bolts and skewers etc that I got there. Again, he got stuck on two lands for a turn or two.
R3: vs Grixis Urza (L2-1)
I don't know anything about the deck. I haven't played modern in two months. It showed. Let's move on
R4: vs UW Control (W2-0)
Game one I get a guide into turn two double swiftspear and he never drew a board wipe. It was quick. Game two was a little weird. He did resolve a timely reinforcements while I had an eidolon out from my second turn on the draw. I was able to use a goblin guide to force blocks though and keep the spirit out there. He tries to oust his last token, which I thought was a setup for a second timely (I have skullcrack at this point) to restock on tokens. I didn't know oust gained you life and he didn't mention his life total until he went to play another spell. It was rather disjointed play where I went "wait oust gains life?" We did walk it back before it was too late so I could stop his oust lifegain. He countered the skullcrack, but I had another in play. THen he played narset and activated it, which revealed his sb'ed lyra dawnbringer. Disappointed in having to tuck away his best out, he was able to hold things off and resolvea teferi, but I attack him down to 4 and finish with exquisite firecraft.
R5: vs GW Devoted combo (W2-1)
At this point its 11p.m. I'm burnt out and couldn't tell you much other than the first two games went fairly long. Game 1 he is unable to combo because I got him to two life with an eidolon in play. He had to draw a tutor to get vizier without dying to a trigger, it didn't happen. Game 2 I screw up and could have won, punted at the last moment. Game 3 I am on the play with turn 1 guide into turn 2 searing blaze on his opening hierarch. He kept a land light hand hoping for hierarch to help but guide didn't give him one. I won in like four turns and he had to play defense the whole time.
4-1 finish, third place out of I think twenty-nine. It got me a Cavern of Souls. My only big takeaway from the list is that I want to swap one vantage and one fetch with two canyons. I had outs in round three but couldn't draw a final burn spell.
This is going to be ******* bonkers. Hogaak warped the metagame to arguably its narrowest ever the past couple weeks. Now, though? It is wide open, and I am very curious to see what happens. Jund and UW were actually very reasonable choices lately, same with humans. I am expecting more dredge and particularly tron to try to take advantage of lowered gy disruption and increased fair decks, respectively. Along with reasonable jund and uw matchups already, burn could be rather strong in this meta. My predictions of ranking, more or less:
phoenix
tron
humans
uw
dredge
jund
burn
misc.
Partly though that is based on knowing my local meta. and to be sure, I like that setup.
Thopter Sword with Urza has been putting up some results by also using goblin engineer to tutor up a fast ensnaring bridge or other bullet. Infect, storm, cheerios etc are turn three combos that can race hogaak reliably enough. Burn, crazy enough, would get rolled against hogaak but is actually solid against those decks I just mentioned plus UW control. If I wasn't expecting a ton of bridge decks, but knew people would be planning for it, I'd consider burn. Still, that's a very specific meta call.
Also, comically enough, it stops hogaak from using altar to deck you out. On turn three, on the play, they would have to target you 17 times with altar to win.
WOTC WAR Team: We need more teferi cosplayers, and this one needs a static ability. Let's reference the five mana creature teferi from Time Spiral with a three mana planeswalker!
WOTC: New players don't understand instants so let's just remove them from the game with a planeswalker.
Core spoilers now already have a couple three mana planeswalkers. WOTC has appeared to get better about printing answers to them as well, if only slightly, but not to a point where I am convinced that the company does not want these to become a larger part of general play. I despise these cards, because the moment one resolves, unless you have a significant board advantage, the opponent is going to gain tangible value. A PW on an empty board with the more solid options runs the range of "sudden advantage" to "the game is over." I find them boring, and the good ones tend to consolidate fair decks into the best shells to implement them. Perhaps worst of all, I find them boring because they don't end the game by actually winning the game in a few turns, but rather generating such tremendous advantage that you might as well scoop.
3CMC walkers are becoming the new norm, and as they continue to push the envelope more and more will enter the modern format. We have gone from a point of LOTV being the only option, to now half a dozen walkers finding spots in competitive decks. I think this is only going to increase, in no small part due to the fact that WOTC is fascinated with the idea of turning its competitive game into a convention factory, including an odd fascination with cosplay. I don't give a ***** about cosplay, or fan art, or what have you.
I can handle a wide variety of styles of games. I play modern, legacy, and pauper, but my fear now is that even my easy-to-satisfy preferences won't jive anymore with the company's desire for its own *****tier version of an "MCU."
If so, it was a good run.
Also Leyline of Sanctity was spoiled for Core, so I assume the entire cycle is coming.