The problem I see with your appraoch is, that the chances that you draw your combo are quite small. And without an expertise the breaking are just dead cards. (And Kari Zev expertise is not that good either).
And I am not sure if in such a deck, not "normal" aggro control cards would be better.
After discussing the Deck a bit with others and searching for some new cards the following cards came up:
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn You can put him into play with Breaking/Entering, however, it is not good with Flesh/Blood.
Pieces of the Puzzle Great card, would do everything we want, but 3 mana is just 1 too much :-( Peer Through Depths Great for searching the combo cards, however not really useful in filling the graveyard. Cathartic Reunion gives no card disadvantage, however, you can't discard the newly drawn cards. Also can't be really cast when only having 2 (other) cards in hand left, which is bad against liliana etc. Augur of Bolas Is a body for Flesh/Blood and can block against agressive decks, it just does not dig too deep and does not help to get the right cards into your graveyard. Izzet Charm Nice flexible card, can help you gain a bit time against aggro (or combo) when not needed for the draw. It just does not dig as deep as other 2 mana cards. Taigam's Scheming and Contingency Plan They work quite well in this deck! They can dig quite deep, help to fill the correct cards into the graveyard and also can protect against graveyard hate (when having breaking/entering) by leaving the fatty on top of the library!
The disadvantage is, that they mean -1 cards in hand. Also you will only have 1 new card in the hand on your next turn. (With the other cards 2-4)
Judge's Familiar potential target for my spells and grants a bit of protection. However it might just not be good enough. Collective Brutality Discard outlet and can help against hate (discard/counter) and can slow down the enemy a bit (heal 2, discard a key card, kill a creature).
This could fit into a more controlish build.
The Basic Idea is, to somehow fill your Graveyard with strong creatures, and then either reanimate one of them, or use Flesh // Blood on one of your creatures, in order to finish your opponent in one go.
So the deck just tries to find a good use for Kari Zev's Expertise and Sram's Expertise this is just a first rough Sketch, it might be even a bit to unfocused.
Simian Spirit Guide is there to speed up the deck. Faithless Looting is by far the best card to help you dig through your deck, and Hedron Crab is a cheap way to fill your Graveyard, which also happens to be a creature as a potential target for the Flesh // Blood.
Death's Shadow is in the Deck as a kind of Backup. It can be used for 1 Mana to just put it into the grave from your Hand in order to have a good target for your Flesh // Blood. Additional it can later in the game also be hardcastet, and can become quite dangerous for the enemy, especially together with Flesh // Blood.
The Sideboard is there to adapt the Deck a bit, depending on the Matchup without changing its plan. I am not sure if this is the correct Sideboard Strategy.
Especially the unburial rites might be not too useful.
The deck has several possible Problems:
1. There may be not enough Reanimation Targets, since you are not playing too many enabler. The reanimator itself is an enabler, however, it is just not safe to only depend on him, when you only have 9 targets.
2. The deck is a combo Deck which can be hit by several types of hate.
3. The manabase is a bit whacky.
There are also some advantages:
1. You can win turn 2. (Even turn 1 if the opponent starts and has a creature and you have the absolute perfect Hand.)
2. You can win without the combo / your combo cards have at least some uses outside of the combo.
3. Your reanimator is better than normal ones, since you do not target the creature (so a single Extraction might not be enough!), you can also reanimate the enemies creature (if he has the black leyline or something like that).
4. Nobody expects to be beaten to death by his own creature
A manastone for 3 is just bad in limited.. Even those which fixed 2 colors were not good really enough in limited. And having such a weak additional effect (scry 1) does not really help.
I disagree. Mana stones for 3 are definitely playable in limited, though they are usually for fixing/splashing than acceleration. And making colorless is fixing for this set.
Well you play them if you realy have to, but you are never happy about it. This was the case in every limited set I played even in Shards of Alara where the obelisks did fix 3 mana you did not really like them.
And all the ones you played could fix at least 2 colors not only 1 (colorless) so this one is a even worse in this regard.
A manastone for 3 is just bad in limited.. Even those which fixed 2 colors were not good really enough in limited. And having such a weak additional effect (scry 1) does not really help.
Most things where as expected, 2 drops are useless, unless they have lategame power (flying, deathtouch, outlast or can block fatties), carddraw is bad, since you have enough ways to use manas with morphs, everything with outlast is at least good.
Trails of Mystery was better than expected, I first was a little annoyed having it in the Clanpack, but then I found 8 good morphs, and the card was amazing.
Also Brave the Sands, a card, which would in most sets be crappiest crap, is quite good in a deck with outlast creatures (and fatties, but thats what every deck will have).
Also Wolly Loxodon, was better than thought. I mean normally this is just another random fatty, but here it is the fatty dominating other fatties.
How often do you draw the 2/1? How often does the opponent have a pinger or a 1/4 er card?
Also the 2/1 and 2/2 was just en example, what was meant is to have a marginal better card than another playable.
My math is not highly questionable. It was just the percentage to draw a card the first 7 turns of a game or in the first 14 cards.
This may be to late for some formats, but in some formates you have even more time.
There are of course bombs which are (in a decent deck) almost unbeatable. And of course there are some games, which are highly game changing, you can't deny that.
I had some limited tournaments, where I won every single game with a bomb (having 3 in the deck) and every single game was only won because I had one of this bombs.
Normally it is bad to hatedraft, but NOT always you end up with lower winning probability...
It is not undeniable nor blatant. The only thing platant is the ignorance/arrogance of some players.
Some players overvaluate hatedrafting, and some undervaluate it.
If your Deck is all just 2/2 or 2/1 creatures having another 2/2 creature rathern than a 2/1 creature makes almost no difference.
But if an opponent has pyroclasm makes a big difference.
A 2/2 over a 2/1 is going to win you more games than you'll lose to the card you would have hatedrafted. That's just undeniably and blatantly true. You and the other few people who don't get this seem to think you'll end up playing the guy who gets the card, that the guy who gets the card will actually play it, that he'll actually draw it in a game and that the card will impact the outcome. The odds of that are stupidly low.
Undeniable and blatant true, but no arguments why?
I don't think that a 2/1 over a 2/2 makes such a big difference, in a solid aggro deck. It may depend on the format, but it often does not matter at all.
I have even calculated the odds, that you play against that card, and they are not that low.
The chances that you play against this card if no one hatepicks it is at LEAST: 3/7*(1-(1-0.35)*(1-0.35))= 24.7%
This chance gets higher, if you play 3 games against that person, and they are higher when you have a good deck, since bombs usually increase the winning probability, and with that the chances that you play against him in game 2 or 3 get higher.
He summed it up pretty well. There haven't been many posts here because there's not much to discuss. You hatedraft when there aren't any cards that might make your maindeck and no useful sideboard cards exclusively. Any other hate-draft is incorrect and always will be, no matter how powerful the card in question is.
Thats just not true.
If you have allready a good deck/ enough playables (for that part of the draft) then the questions are the followings:
How much would improve this card I pick my overall deck, and how much is it needed?
If you pick a 2/2 and in the end you play this 2/2 in the deck instead of a 2/1, this is most likely only a marginal difference.
If your deck is really good, it should not make a big difference in winning probabilities. Lets say your overall winning Probability increases from 70% to 71%
On the other hand, if the card you hatepick is a card, you just cannot beat, the winning probabilities, against the opponent with this card go down by A LOT.
So lets say when your opponent draws this card your winning probabilities is 20% when he does not draw the card it is 70% and the chances, that he draws the card by turn 7 are 35% this means the winning probability against this opponent goes down from 70% to 50%
Normally Chances are 3/7 that you are playing against a certain player or 1/7 players have this card.
This means in average the winning percentage goes down from 70% to 1/7*5/10+6/7*7/10=47/700 0.67%
This is a bigger difference in winning percentage then the 1% the other card would improve
Also if an opponent has such a huge bomb, and you have a great deck, the chances, that you are playing against this opponent increases, since this card boosts his winning probabilities against other opponents as well.
I do not say that hatepicking is good, but that general statement is just not true.
First red is (more or less) your splash colour, so I would decrease the number of Mountains by 1 and put 1 more Plain in the deck.
Second with 14 Kreatures (and no Tokens) I think Trumpet Blast is not good in this Deck.
Other cards I do not really like are:
Deflecting Pain, this can only deal damage to the opponent, so it is "just" a burn to the face, this can be good, but only in Racing situations.
Weave Fate, I think 4 Mana for this effect is not good enough. The format is not fast, but you to play Creatures turn 4 and you have with Morphs etc other ways to use the Mana.
Whirlwind Adept (only 2 Toughness dies to easily in Combat and 5 mana is a lot), but since you lack (better) creatures he is ok.
On the other hand, there are cards, I would almost always play in your sideboard:
Suspension Field this can kill almost all creatures!
Arc Lightning a good Removal early game, can sometimes even trade 2:1, and can deal damage to opponents.
Smite the Monstrous has a lot of potential targets in this format, so playing 1 is often correct, also it can be played in combat to trigger Prowess.
Bring Low is also more often good then not, but most likely Smite the Monstrous is better.
I think in this format there are a lot of cards, which are better in the offense, then in the defense, therefore you want to be on the offense and therefore you want to play first (most of the time).
Also because of the lack of Removal it is often important to race threats and this is easier, when you started.
About the cards which are better on the offense:
The heroic cards, the Ordeals, most of the Combat tricks, some of the rares (blue, red and green weapon, 1UW creature) the uncommon bestow creatures.
Bestow in general is better when you can attack with it directly and not have to use the bestowed creature to block (since in between a removal/bounce etc could come).
Also the phew 1 mana Drops are better, when you start (and the 2/1 Flying creature as well) since then they have always a free hit.
You should not forget viper's Kiss, which can be used against the monstrosity of the Kraken and the Ember Swallower, of course it does not kill it, but it somehow handles the threat it provides.
Also if you count the destroy target black creature and exile target white permanent, you should also count the fight a green creature and counter a blue spell (at least make a remark as with annul).
I am not saying this because I think the Kraken is bad, but just for being completely correct. Because it is not less fragile than the demon.
Scry (and similiar effects) can only be considered Card Advantage, when you draw something not useless instead of something which is useless (like a Land when you allready have 8).
But in such a set, where you need 7-8 Mana regularily (Monstrosity, bestow etc.) you will only rarely be able to put something on the bottom of your library, especially in the early game (when the cheap scry cards will be played).
I think it is quite hard to say for theros if drawing is better here some facts:
+ Slow Format (at least I think it is since it has high mana cost and a lot of defensive creatures)
+ A lot of High cost cards (including bestow and monstrosity)
- A lot of Combat tricks, which makes attacking (with open mana) better then blocking.
- Phew good Removal, so stopping the opponent is harder.
So with the new legendary rule update is there any reason not to run 4x mox opals?
4x Lotus Petals
4x Chrome Mox
4x LED
4x Mox opal
Seems like getting metal craft would not be very difficult.
When you draw a Mox Opal you need to draw 2 out of 12 cards. The chances for that are not particular high and it would increase the variance in the deck even more. Especially since it doesn't help you to get black mana since you only get black mana when you already would have black mana (2 other artifacts).
Especially since LED isn't that great in this deck (in the no wish version) anyway.
The problem I see with your appraoch is, that the chances that you draw your combo are quite small. And without an expertise the breaking are just dead cards. (And Kari Zev expertise is not that good either).
And I am not sure if in such a deck, not "normal" aggro control cards would be better.
After discussing the Deck a bit with others and searching for some new cards the following cards came up:
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn You can put him into play with Breaking/Entering, however, it is not good with Flesh/Blood.
Pieces of the Puzzle Great card, would do everything we want, but 3 mana is just 1 too much :-(
Peer Through Depths Great for searching the combo cards, however not really useful in filling the graveyard.
Cathartic Reunion gives no card disadvantage, however, you can't discard the newly drawn cards. Also can't be really cast when only having 2 (other) cards in hand left, which is bad against liliana etc.
Augur of Bolas Is a body for Flesh/Blood and can block against agressive decks, it just does not dig too deep and does not help to get the right cards into your graveyard.
Izzet Charm Nice flexible card, can help you gain a bit time against aggro (or combo) when not needed for the draw. It just does not dig as deep as other 2 mana cards.
Taigam's Scheming and Contingency Plan They work quite well in this deck! They can dig quite deep, help to fill the correct cards into the graveyard and also can protect against graveyard hate (when having breaking/entering) by leaving the fatty on top of the library!
The disadvantage is, that they mean -1 cards in hand. Also you will only have 1 new card in the hand on your next turn. (With the other cards 2-4)
Forbidden Orchard As a one of this is better in the Sideboard than City of Brass since it can help against creatureless decks to cast Kari Zev's Expertice .
Judge's Familiar potential target for my spells and grants a bit of protection. However it might just not be good enough.
Collective Brutality Discard outlet and can help against hate (discard/counter) and can slow down the enemy a bit (heal 2, discard a key card, kill a creature).
This could fit into a more controlish build.
The 1 of Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite main is too random, and an additional Expertise is just better.
My current deck looks like this:
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Mana Confluence
3 City of Brass
4 Arid Mesa
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
3 Sacred Foundry
1 Godless Shrine
1 Steam Vents
Enabler
4 Kari Zev's Expertise
4 Sram's Expertise
Reanimators
4 Breaking // Entering
4 Flesh // Blood
4 Faithless Looting
2 Taigam's Scheming
2 Contingency Plan
Targets:
4 Death's Shadow
4 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Griselbrand
3 Collective Brutality
3 Beck // Call
2 Taigam's Scheming
2 Contingency Plan
1 Forbidden Orchard
So the deck just tries to find a good use for Kari Zev's Expertise and Sram's Expertise this is just a first rough Sketch, it might be even a bit to unfocused.
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Mana Confluence
3 City of Brass
4 Arid Mesa
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
3 Sacred Foundry
1 Godless Shrine
1 Steam Vents
Enabler
4 Kari Zev's Expertise
3 Sram's Expertise
Reanimators
4 Breaking // Entering
4 Flesh // Blood
4 Faithless Looting
4 Hedron Crab
Targets:
4 Death's Shadow
4 Iona, Shield of Emeria
4 Griselbrand
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
4 Invisible Stalker
3 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
2 Unburial Rites
1 Sram's Expertise
1 City of Brass
Card/Deck Discussion:
Kari Zev's Expertise and Sram's Expertise are there to cast the two split spells faster and both can provide creatures as targets for your Flesh // Blood.
Simian Spirit Guide is there to speed up the deck. Faithless Looting is by far the best card to help you dig through your deck, and Hedron Crab is a cheap way to fill your Graveyard, which also happens to be a creature as a potential target for the Flesh // Blood.
Death's Shadow is in the Deck as a kind of Backup. It can be used for 1 Mana to just put it into the grave from your Hand in order to have a good target for your Flesh // Blood. Additional it can later in the game also be hardcastet, and can become quite dangerous for the enemy, especially together with Flesh // Blood.
The Sideboard is there to adapt the Deck a bit, depending on the Matchup without changing its plan. I am not sure if this is the correct Sideboard Strategy.
Especially the unburial rites might be not too useful.
The deck has several possible Problems:
1. There may be not enough Reanimation Targets, since you are not playing too many enabler. The reanimator itself is an enabler, however, it is just not safe to only depend on him, when you only have 9 targets.
2. The deck is a combo Deck which can be hit by several types of hate.
3. The manabase is a bit whacky.
There are also some advantages:
1. You can win turn 2. (Even turn 1 if the opponent starts and has a creature and you have the absolute perfect Hand.)
2. You can win without the combo / your combo cards have at least some uses outside of the combo.
3. Your reanimator is better than normal ones, since you do not target the creature (so a single Extraction might not be enough!), you can also reanimate the enemies creature (if he has the black leyline or something like that).
4. Nobody expects to be beaten to death by his own creature
Well you play them if you realy have to, but you are never happy about it. This was the case in every limited set I played even in Shards of Alara where the obelisks did fix 3 mana you did not really like them.
And all the ones you played could fix at least 2 colors not only 1 (colorless) so this one is a even worse in this regard.
Trails of Mystery was better than expected, I first was a little annoyed having it in the Clanpack, but then I found 8 good morphs, and the card was amazing.
Also Brave the Sands, a card, which would in most sets be crappiest crap, is quite good in a deck with outlast creatures (and fatties, but thats what every deck will have).
Also Wolly Loxodon, was better than thought. I mean normally this is just another random fatty, but here it is the fatty dominating other fatties.
M15 may be a little bit too boring, and not everyone is good in 3 Colour environments.
Also the 2/1 and 2/2 was just en example, what was meant is to have a marginal better card than another playable.
My math is not highly questionable. It was just the percentage to draw a card the first 7 turns of a game or in the first 14 cards.
This may be to late for some formats, but in some formates you have even more time.
There are of course bombs which are (in a decent deck) almost unbeatable. And of course there are some games, which are highly game changing, you can't deny that.
I had some limited tournaments, where I won every single game with a bomb (having 3 in the deck) and every single game was only won because I had one of this bombs.
Normally it is bad to hatedraft, but NOT always you end up with lower winning probability...
It is not undeniable nor blatant. The only thing platant is the ignorance/arrogance of some players.
Some players overvaluate hatedrafting, and some undervaluate it.
If your Deck is all just 2/2 or 2/1 creatures having another 2/2 creature rathern than a 2/1 creature makes almost no difference.
But if an opponent has pyroclasm makes a big difference.
Just as an easy example.
Undeniable and blatant true, but no arguments why?
I don't think that a 2/1 over a 2/2 makes such a big difference, in a solid aggro deck. It may depend on the format, but it often does not matter at all.
I have even calculated the odds, that you play against that card, and they are not that low.
The chances that you play against this card if no one hatepicks it is at LEAST: 3/7*(1-(1-0.35)*(1-0.35))= 24.7%
This chance gets higher, if you play 3 games against that person, and they are higher when you have a good deck, since bombs usually increase the winning probability, and with that the chances that you play against him in game 2 or 3 get higher.
Thats just not true.
If you have allready a good deck/ enough playables (for that part of the draft) then the questions are the followings:
How much would improve this card I pick my overall deck, and how much is it needed?
If you pick a 2/2 and in the end you play this 2/2 in the deck instead of a 2/1, this is most likely only a marginal difference.
If your deck is really good, it should not make a big difference in winning probabilities. Lets say your overall winning Probability increases from 70% to 71%
On the other hand, if the card you hatepick is a card, you just cannot beat, the winning probabilities, against the opponent with this card go down by A LOT.
So lets say when your opponent draws this card your winning probabilities is 20% when he does not draw the card it is 70% and the chances, that he draws the card by turn 7 are 35% this means the winning probability against this opponent goes down from 70% to 50%
Normally Chances are 3/7 that you are playing against a certain player or 1/7 players have this card.
This means in average the winning percentage goes down from 70% to 1/7*5/10+6/7*7/10=47/700 0.67%
This is a bigger difference in winning percentage then the 1% the other card would improve
Also if an opponent has such a huge bomb, and you have a great deck, the chances, that you are playing against this opponent increases, since this card boosts his winning probabilities against other opponents as well.
I do not say that hatepicking is good, but that general statement is just not true.
First red is (more or less) your splash colour, so I would decrease the number of Mountains by 1 and put 1 more Plain in the deck.
Second with 14 Kreatures (and no Tokens) I think Trumpet Blast is not good in this Deck.
Other cards I do not really like are:
Deflecting Pain, this can only deal damage to the opponent, so it is "just" a burn to the face, this can be good, but only in Racing situations.
Weave Fate, I think 4 Mana for this effect is not good enough. The format is not fast, but you to play Creatures turn 4 and you have with Morphs etc other ways to use the Mana.
Whirlwind Adept (only 2 Toughness dies to easily in Combat and 5 mana is a lot), but since you lack (better) creatures he is ok.
On the other hand, there are cards, I would almost always play in your sideboard:
Suspension Field this can kill almost all creatures!
Arc Lightning a good Removal early game, can sometimes even trade 2:1, and can deal damage to opponents.
Smite the Monstrous has a lot of potential targets in this format, so playing 1 is often correct, also it can be played in combat to trigger Prowess.
Bring Low is also more often good then not, but most likely Smite the Monstrous is better.
Also because of the lack of Removal it is often important to race threats and this is easier, when you started.
About the cards which are better on the offense:
The heroic cards, the Ordeals, most of the Combat tricks, some of the rares (blue, red and green weapon, 1UW creature) the uncommon bestow creatures.
Bestow in general is better when you can attack with it directly and not have to use the bestowed creature to block (since in between a removal/bounce etc could come).
Also the phew 1 mana Drops are better, when you start (and the 2/1 Flying creature as well) since then they have always a free hit.
Also if you count the destroy target black creature and exile target white permanent, you should also count the fight a green creature and counter a blue spell (at least make a remark as with annul).
I am not saying this because I think the Kraken is bad, but just for being completely correct. Because it is not less fragile than the demon.
But in such a set, where you need 7-8 Mana regularily (Monstrosity, bestow etc.) you will only rarely be able to put something on the bottom of your library, especially in the early game (when the cheap scry cards will be played).
+ Slow Format (at least I think it is since it has high mana cost and a lot of defensive creatures)
+ A lot of High cost cards (including bestow and monstrosity)
- A lot of Combat tricks, which makes attacking (with open mana) better then blocking.
- Phew good Removal, so stopping the opponent is harder.
When you draw a Mox Opal you need to draw 2 out of 12 cards. The chances for that are not particular high and it would increase the variance in the deck even more. Especially since it doesn't help you to get black mana since you only get black mana when you already would have black mana (2 other artifacts).
Especially since LED isn't that great in this deck (in the no wish version) anyway.