I thought i posted the numbers... but if you play 4 rejections you have a 57% chance of seeing at least one in the first 3 turns.. etron has a 87% chance of having one of map, cavern or chalice...
That means theres an approximate 37% chance(.87 times .43) that you wont draw rejection in time... im sorry thats not a rare occurrence...
You might say i didnt include logic knot but i also didnt include relic either..
Why does UW have a good etron matchup? Because they can deal with cavern and chalice in their main deck... why does GDS have a great matchup? They have discard and kcommand for chalice and cavern is irrelevant whem they have one mana 5/5s...
It points to why jeskai has a tough time.. we dont have an answer to them resolving chalice and finding cavern... and both of them together nukes about 19 cards... and their win percentage is much higher when they resolve either than the times where we draw one or even 2 or 3 rejections...
This is why im saying counters are not where you want to be.. and this goes for dstroke also.. the problem is dealing with resolved things.. if you are depending on countering everything.. i guarantee you that you are going to have a really bad time...
[quote]That's not a statistical fact. You are talking about some long-term probability. I can draw my three of more than you draw your four of over thousands of games and still be within a perfectly normal statistical distribution.
I don't depend on anything. I was just pointing out how wrong your logic was. Also, you keep making logical fallacies. You keep saying that Map is good against Rejection. Rejection is there to counter map and chalice. How exactly are you countering T2 chalice on the play?
the point of the numbers was that you cannot keep map and/or chalice and/or relic off of the board continually and consistently... it is why the matchup is unfavorable.. they will eventually.. usually by turn 4 or 5 and sometimes earlier... will resolve something extremely problematic...
there are gonna be games where rejection, snap rejection is going to make you feel nice... you may even win that game.. but it's not going to happen nearly enough... you know what the numbers are on that? 11.7%... i don't know how anyone terms that as often...
That's not a statistical fact. You are talking about some long-term probability. I can draw my three of more than you draw your four of over thousands of games and still be within a perfectly normal statistical distribution.
so is variance and luck what you depend on? that's what you're saying... why aren't your 4-ofs, 3-ofs in your deck if you truly feel that way?
i was hoping to bury this discussion but here are the numbers:
etron lists plays 2 caverns + 4 maps + 4 chalices.... that's 10 ways to make rejection close to useless... and that's an 87% probability to draw just one of those pieces in the first 3 turns... 65% for 2...
If you play rejection... even as a 4 of... that's a 57% chance of drawing in the first 3 turns... that's a massive difference... and the odds of drawing 2 is a measley 12%....
you cannot trade one for one.... the whole deck is colorless which means you will eventually run out of rejections and counters and ways to deal with their threats... something that you cannot handle will eventually resolve... which i'm sure is a common feeling amongst everyone who has actually played it... and the question is whether or not you can win before that happens... that is why proactive is almost always better... you resolve something and you don't have to spend mana or cards later in the game to address a threat...
i mean you will have games where you might feel pretty good... that's what happens when the answers line up... but it's not going to happen nearly enough times.... is 4 rejections leading to close to positive win percentages against them? i guarantee that's not happening.. at least over a large enough sample...
i never actually said stony is the best card against them... but it's better elsewhere and happens to be useful here....
i'm not abhorring others card choices... ppl will be successful with or without x or y card... it happens all the time... there are sometimes very clear choices... and others it's sort of in between... but i think ppl should stop talking about their choices as being the best... because clearly that's not the case all the time... just a little over a year ago i had ppl tell me that logic knot was clearly worse than mana leak and remand.... not everyone's experience is going to be the same as yours.. and nobody will think the same as you... if anything this should be a forum to discuss options openly and discuss its merits... or it could be a forum where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else...
Card choices are going to vary person to person and deck to deck.... how one views the meta is going to vary widely...
I favor stony because affinity is almost always popular and there happens to be another t1 deck that uses artifacts...
But you also get incidental hate against lantern and ad nauseam and its effectiveness there and the difficulty that jeskai has with them is what leads me to devote a board spot to stony.. then you have other random artifact jank.. i estimate everything combined to be about 15% of the online meta more or less...
But others may view things differently... i think 2 stony's may be overkill but i like having as much proactive hate to cover as much matchups as possible... i dont think anyone is definitely right or wrong in any case..
To illustrate that point.. The guy who finished 1st in the scg open played no copies of stony but the guy who finished second played 2..
I really dont think you are arguing in an effective manner... but ill put that aside for now... context matters so i can see how you or others might not like stony... i probably play a diff list than most and thats fine.. i like my results and have fun with it..
But i do think recent tourney results sort of back me up on the overall theme... that you should be picking your battles elsewhere... we can argue over card choices but there are other matchups where those slots matter more and actually move the needle...
The problem with rejection is that you will draw less rejections in your opening than etron will with chalice... they will also have more caverns(map). they have 10 ways to deal with it.. and your targets will only be karn and ballista...
Stony will at least slow them down.. without map they have a hard time getting cavern, temple and tron and its really the key card that drives their midgame consistency... theyll need 2 out of 3 to get going... and in the late game it hoses ballista... relic is also a bad card vs you if you leave in your logic knots... it's also better than rejection in the other artifact matchups... proactive is almost always where you want to be...
Im not here to convince ppl that these are the best cards in the matchup.. but rather introduce a diff way to think about it... i dont think any jeskai pilot is having luck against etron so i think exploring less talked about options is healthy...
i play mostly on modo so i have played every matchup extensively so its not coming from just theory... im also not a perfect player which is why i think these discussions can help not only me but for others...
Just because you dont side in rejection or a bunch of other narrow cards doesnt mean its more effective... my argument is that you can be just as effective with other cards without being so narrow because those cards have limited applications in the matchup...
Rejection vs cavern or chalice gets hosed... disdainful stroke still has the cavern problem and left with basically only 6-8 targets in the deck... they have effective answers to those cards...
What they dont have effective answers for are enchantments and creatures... thats why i love stony in the matchup... i also like detention sphere as a catchall for chalices or whatever they resolved... i also like nevermore or meddling mage for things that i cant handle at that moment... i also bring in leylines depending on how im feeling... you need a more proactive plan against them...
And those cards have much wider applications... but again the matchup is not close to favorable even if you bring in 10 cards... so the best thing in my mind is to compromise and try to bring up your overall mwp instead of concentrating on one and hopefully not sacrifice as much in that one...
Eldrazi Tron is tier 1. You can't afford that type of reasoning if you want to play in any relevant tournament. Maybe if you're lucky you don't have any E Tron pilot in your local store, but in any big event, you'll have to face them and if you're not prepared they will utterly crush you.
When you play a tourney... you have to dodge or overcome unfavorable things along the way... every deck goes through it and every t1 deck has other unfavorable matchups that they have to deal with and not all of them devote narroe sb cards specifically for it...
Its not like i dont bring in sideboard cards but they are cards that are powerful in the other unfavorable matchups also... and i favor those over rejection or disdainful stroke or spreading seas... deck slots are prime real estate...
the way to fight all those decks is very different... so there isn't a magic bullet vs all of them unless you side in blood moon...
I've been kicking that idea around lately, but haven't been too serious about it. Has anyone actual tried to make Blood Moon work from the SB?
i haven't ran games with it but it's not viable... jeskai has run blood moon in the past but that was specifically for amulet... and was pretty much one of the only ways to hose that deck... right now it's really only good vs scapeshift... quite effective but they have outs to it since they have rec sage and/or naturalize... etron has map and you have path which means they'll eventually draw out of it...
but the biggest problem is running logic knot or cryptic... you can't have any UU or WW costed cards when you board it in... gbx and grixis has less color requirement than you do.. they only need GB or UB and they can cast everything... and you having path means they'll probably get there at some point.. and they'll fetch basics if you start doing so in any case...
the etron matchup is just difficult... i don't board for it specifically... it'll take mainboarding spreading seas and then boarding in another round of cards to make it viable and i just don't think it's worth it...
Ajani is very good against burn for obv reasons but also great vs GDS..
Its good to very good against gbx and UW.. its ok in jeskai mirror.. it also has value against most small creature matchups if youre in a controlling/burn shell...
I also like blessed alliance esp if geist decks become popular and some titanshift lists have been running gaeas revenge in the board...
Does anybody have some advice on the Grixis Control match-up? I used to be quite confident in the MU but have lost twice recently against the deck. On a side note, I expect Grixis Control to benefit from Opt's entry into the modern card-pool more than Jeskai. They can play 8 functional cantrips at instant speed (Opt and Thought Scour).
for your decklist... i generally don't like RIP and i think boarding in RIP is a mistake against all forms of grixis... i generally don't like it since snap is a big part of tempo builds... and if you beat grixis.. it's usually before turn 10... and an early RIP hurts you more there...
if you keep them from resolving kolaghan's or AV or cryptic then you have a very good shot.. other than that.. it's going to be hard for you to come back from that card advantage...
sticking a geist will usually pave the way to victory though and so you should concentrate on having a big turn to try to resolve him as soon as possible... clique and snap are pretty key there...
The thing is that you should have used serum turn 1 so you dont have to rely on a serum on turn 2 to make your 3rd land drop... and if you just drew serum on turn 2 means you kept a two lander with no serum .. that is a very risky keep... you shouldnt be putting yourself in that situation to begin with...
If you want to hold up a counter thats fine.. but you can plan ahead to see if you need to counter or cast serum on the next turn or the current turn ... its not a difficult decision most of the time since you should know what deck you are playing against by turn 1..
Serum lets you see more of your library period... scrying 2 vs 1 is a difference of 5% if youre only looking for two cards.. but if youre looking for land drops.. the difference is as high 18%... those might seem like small numbers to some... but its a monumental number in a deck that deals with much smaller percentages to get to a win on a per card basis...
That means theres an approximate 37% chance(.87 times .43) that you wont draw rejection in time... im sorry thats not a rare occurrence...
You might say i didnt include logic knot but i also didnt include relic either..
Why does UW have a good etron matchup? Because they can deal with cavern and chalice in their main deck... why does GDS have a great matchup? They have discard and kcommand for chalice and cavern is irrelevant whem they have one mana 5/5s...
It points to why jeskai has a tough time.. we dont have an answer to them resolving chalice and finding cavern... and both of them together nukes about 19 cards... and their win percentage is much higher when they resolve either than the times where we draw one or even 2 or 3 rejections...
This is why im saying counters are not where you want to be.. and this goes for dstroke also.. the problem is dealing with resolved things.. if you are depending on countering everything.. i guarantee you that you are going to have a really bad time...
the point of the numbers was that you cannot keep map and/or chalice and/or relic off of the board continually and consistently... it is why the matchup is unfavorable.. they will eventually.. usually by turn 4 or 5 and sometimes earlier... will resolve something extremely problematic...
there are gonna be games where rejection, snap rejection is going to make you feel nice... you may even win that game.. but it's not going to happen nearly enough... you know what the numbers are on that? 11.7%... i don't know how anyone terms that as often...
so is variance and luck what you depend on? that's what you're saying... why aren't your 4-ofs, 3-ofs in your deck if you truly feel that way?
etron lists plays 2 caverns + 4 maps + 4 chalices.... that's 10 ways to make rejection close to useless... and that's an 87% probability to draw just one of those pieces in the first 3 turns... 65% for 2...
If you play rejection... even as a 4 of... that's a 57% chance of drawing in the first 3 turns... that's a massive difference... and the odds of drawing 2 is a measley 12%....
you cannot trade one for one.... the whole deck is colorless which means you will eventually run out of rejections and counters and ways to deal with their threats... something that you cannot handle will eventually resolve... which i'm sure is a common feeling amongst everyone who has actually played it... and the question is whether or not you can win before that happens... that is why proactive is almost always better... you resolve something and you don't have to spend mana or cards later in the game to address a threat...
i mean you will have games where you might feel pretty good... that's what happens when the answers line up... but it's not going to happen nearly enough times.... is 4 rejections leading to close to positive win percentages against them? i guarantee that's not happening.. at least over a large enough sample...
i never actually said stony is the best card against them... but it's better elsewhere and happens to be useful here....
i'm not abhorring others card choices... ppl will be successful with or without x or y card... it happens all the time... there are sometimes very clear choices... and others it's sort of in between... but i think ppl should stop talking about their choices as being the best... because clearly that's not the case all the time... just a little over a year ago i had ppl tell me that logic knot was clearly worse than mana leak and remand.... not everyone's experience is going to be the same as yours.. and nobody will think the same as you... if anything this should be a forum to discuss options openly and discuss its merits... or it could be a forum where everyone thinks they know more than everyone else...
I favor stony because affinity is almost always popular and there happens to be another t1 deck that uses artifacts...
But you also get incidental hate against lantern and ad nauseam and its effectiveness there and the difficulty that jeskai has with them is what leads me to devote a board spot to stony.. then you have other random artifact jank.. i estimate everything combined to be about 15% of the online meta more or less...
But others may view things differently... i think 2 stony's may be overkill but i like having as much proactive hate to cover as much matchups as possible... i dont think anyone is definitely right or wrong in any case..
To illustrate that point.. The guy who finished 1st in the scg open played no copies of stony but the guy who finished second played 2..
But i do think recent tourney results sort of back me up on the overall theme... that you should be picking your battles elsewhere... we can argue over card choices but there are other matchups where those slots matter more and actually move the needle...
Stony will at least slow them down.. without map they have a hard time getting cavern, temple and tron and its really the key card that drives their midgame consistency... theyll need 2 out of 3 to get going... and in the late game it hoses ballista... relic is also a bad card vs you if you leave in your logic knots... it's also better than rejection in the other artifact matchups... proactive is almost always where you want to be...
Im not here to convince ppl that these are the best cards in the matchup.. but rather introduce a diff way to think about it... i dont think any jeskai pilot is having luck against etron so i think exploring less talked about options is healthy...
i play mostly on modo so i have played every matchup extensively so its not coming from just theory... im also not a perfect player which is why i think these discussions can help not only me but for others...
Rejection vs cavern or chalice gets hosed... disdainful stroke still has the cavern problem and left with basically only 6-8 targets in the deck... they have effective answers to those cards...
What they dont have effective answers for are enchantments and creatures... thats why i love stony in the matchup... i also like detention sphere as a catchall for chalices or whatever they resolved... i also like nevermore or meddling mage for things that i cant handle at that moment... i also bring in leylines depending on how im feeling... you need a more proactive plan against them...
And those cards have much wider applications... but again the matchup is not close to favorable even if you bring in 10 cards... so the best thing in my mind is to compromise and try to bring up your overall mwp instead of concentrating on one and hopefully not sacrifice as much in that one...
When you play a tourney... you have to dodge or overcome unfavorable things along the way... every deck goes through it and every t1 deck has other unfavorable matchups that they have to deal with and not all of them devote narroe sb cards specifically for it...
Its not like i dont bring in sideboard cards but they are cards that are powerful in the other unfavorable matchups also... and i favor those over rejection or disdainful stroke or spreading seas... deck slots are prime real estate...
i haven't ran games with it but it's not viable... jeskai has run blood moon in the past but that was specifically for amulet... and was pretty much one of the only ways to hose that deck... right now it's really only good vs scapeshift... quite effective but they have outs to it since they have rec sage and/or naturalize... etron has map and you have path which means they'll eventually draw out of it...
but the biggest problem is running logic knot or cryptic... you can't have any UU or WW costed cards when you board it in... gbx and grixis has less color requirement than you do.. they only need GB or UB and they can cast everything... and you having path means they'll probably get there at some point.. and they'll fetch basics if you start doing so in any case...
the etron matchup is just difficult... i don't board for it specifically... it'll take mainboarding spreading seas and then boarding in another round of cards to make it viable and i just don't think it's worth it...
Its good to very good against gbx and UW.. its ok in jeskai mirror.. it also has value against most small creature matchups if youre in a controlling/burn shell...
I also like blessed alliance esp if geist decks become popular and some titanshift lists have been running gaeas revenge in the board...
i do like ajani and/or keranos since its relevant in more matchups and alot easier to cast...
for your decklist... i generally don't like RIP and i think boarding in RIP is a mistake against all forms of grixis... i generally don't like it since snap is a big part of tempo builds... and if you beat grixis.. it's usually before turn 10... and an early RIP hurts you more there...
if you keep them from resolving kolaghan's or AV or cryptic then you have a very good shot.. other than that.. it's going to be hard for you to come back from that card advantage...
sticking a geist will usually pave the way to victory though and so you should concentrate on having a big turn to try to resolve him as soon as possible... clique and snap are pretty key there...
If you want to hold up a counter thats fine.. but you can plan ahead to see if you need to counter or cast serum on the next turn or the current turn ... its not a difficult decision most of the time since you should know what deck you are playing against by turn 1..
Serum lets you see more of your library period... scrying 2 vs 1 is a difference of 5% if youre only looking for two cards.. but if youre looking for land drops.. the difference is as high 18%... those might seem like small numbers to some... but its a monumental number in a deck that deals with much smaller percentages to get to a win on a per card basis...