I do understand worrying about ban fatigue, but I think there's also brokenness fatigue as well. Lots of the current modern playerbase just played through the Cruise meta not that long ago: we've seen how this goes, and are just going to skip out of the format until the storm blows over (and the bans happen).
As for worrying about banning the wrong card: I believe the Dig Through Time ban was correct. However, it was never actually proven that the card was broken: Wizards just wasn't willing to risk another three months after the Cruise season. If they emergency ban Cruise, maybe Dig gets tested and ends up not actually being broken? Same thing could happen again: maybe Eldrazi is OK but not broken with only one of Eye/Temple, but they might blow up both lands during the ban announcement if current trends hold.
I don't want to link the site because it will get them a WOTC cease-and-desist for scraping MTGO results, but there is someone out there monitoring MTGO match results. Not only is Eldrazi 50% of the winners metagame, but both versions have MWP of around 65%. No other deck is over 54%. For reference, Affinity has a MWP around 64% against Merfolk, and Burn is 64% against Tron. So Eldrazi is a little better against the field than Affinity is against Merfolk or Burn is against Tron. WOTC has all this data, and I'm sure they are paying attention to it.
That's why I'm not worried about waiting for the metagame to "react": when the matchups are that fundamentally bad, you can't fix them by tweaking your deck. So the "adapted" meta is going to be warped enough that they'll ban the lands anyway. So why make us wait for months? Just rip that band-aid off so we can move forward.
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- djphan25
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Member for 8 years, 4 months, and 14 days
Last active Tue, Jul, 23 2019 14:29:31
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I never thought the format would get to a point we'd get to a sfm unban but we are getting there..
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i just want to say that since the twin ban... you also had the bloom ban which to me was the single biggest reason why the format is a lot slower.... then you also have the eye ban... and to a lesser extent the unbans...
i'm pretty sure the format would be about the same if twin wasn't banned except that twin would still be t1... and the coco/chord decks would be where jeskai control is right now...
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a)resto/kiki - i happen to actually like this now since omens lines up well in this meta... and the combo finish is necessary to end the game because usually you'll be at low life while your opponent is probably in the high teens alot of times when you need to turn the corner... bonus for winning thru infinite life.. minus for weakness to bolt...
b)thopters - lines up well against fair decks but there are still plenty of unfair decks that are problematic...
c)gideon/ajani/colonnades - not a big fan of these since these can take forever to get there and all sorts of things can happen to blow up your chances of winning... i think colonnades are fine as a wincon but only if there are not the primary plan...
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i'm pretty sure our lists differ a good deal and i probably didn't play anything close to optimized lists but the decks that just jam the combo in a UW shell or uwr have not been good.... i didn't even see the combo for the most part.. clique is really good against it also... as is surgical extraction...
anyone playing the thopter combo so far have been jamming it and relying on it to win on it's own... and that's probably a mistake... and even the UB tezz lists are ok but probably at best t2... you really only need to worry about thopter foundry and against ub ... tezz... and that's really it... the decks don't have another way to win so far and the combo doesn't drop often enough to be a problem... at least yet... and i think most thopter lists will need to include muddle the mixture because of that...
the combo isn't twin... and they don't do anything.. literally nothing without each other... so that puts extra pressure on the other parts of the deck... and the control lists were weak as is....
the chord decks are really good because they have tutor effects to make it really consistent and usually game winning on the spot... i'm pretty sure the thopter decks are going to need something similar or have an alternate gameplan that synergizes with the combo also....
this is still way too early and it's powerful enough that i think something will emerge but i think most are not thinking about the deck right so far...
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sotm is something that i do worry about... and i only worry because it has the potential to push out an entire archetype... which are fair decks.. i sure hope that wizards actually tested this...
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i probably play a similar list to you but i actually just prefer serum over AV... it's a good t1 play but outside of that it is so brutal to draw... i tried 2 av and 2 serum and it's better but it doesn't feel optimal to me...
i actually think some sort of rug tempo build might be the best shell for it since by the time it reloads it will close the game in a hurry...
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in post twin control builds... the getting to the win part is so much worse that you're better off trading with something like mana leak...
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there's a whole transcript of his interview... please go read it...
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close the thread... this guy figured it out...