The issue is not that truly randomized shuffling in real life is impossible (though it essentially is if you regularly shuffle at all, though if you're going off the random.org method, yes it would be random). The issue is that most people *don't* shuffle that way and so they have a mana weaving advantage. I have sort of outlined that in the stats but will continue to increase the sample size to make sure it's accurate.
Thanks for the reference @pizzap! That's a much better statistical analysis. I assume the sample hand and in game shuffler work off the same randomization method, though (EDIT: read the Reddit post, appears they are different but I will work off the 13,000 hand statistic from now on). I believe if I drew 13,000 hands with it my results would concur with his. As for real life shuffling, I'll continue testing the randomization but I expect it to maintain it's slightly skewed nature.
True randomization is impossible. If you pile lands and spells together after a game and riffle that pile into your deck, then pile and riffle shuffle the average number of times, then there will be clumps that remain together and this will result in clumps of lands and spells that are preferable to the true randomization of the online shuffler. This document indicates the statistical differences between 100 hands on MTGO and 100 real life hands with the same deck and how the real life version results in more hands. The sample size needs to be upped, of course, to obtain a lower p-value (which is currently unacceptably high) but the trends are relatively clear. My argument isn't faulty, it's supported by statistics and years of anecdotal experience.
After sampling 100 IRL hands, I can say with some degree of confidence that they are rigged. You draw more lands IRL and are more likely to draw the "desired" number of lands. It's true, the MTGO shuffler is "truly" random and IRL shuffling simply isn't, because at the end of most games your lands and spells aren't together, they get sloppily riffled into your deck, then you pile and riffle shuffle and your opponent cuts and everything is still somewhat ordered. I chose to replicate this process with a relatively thorough shuffling method and the results are below.
I don't think that if the MTGO shuffler worked like IRL shuffling it would be "nerfed" it would simply be more realistic and imperfect at randomization. Everyone is technically a bad shuffler as no one can truly independently and consciously create "randomness".
I, like many others, get pretty annoyed when getting mana screwed, color screwed, flooded or drawing too many of the same card on MTGO. Over the years I have frequently quit MTGO because of the shuffler but come back because of the game. I decided recently to do an analysis of opening hands on MTGO to see if the system really is rigged. Below are links to Google Docs of 100 sample hands on MTGO and the statistical implications I got from those hands in terms of how many lands are being drawn versus how many should be, duplicate copies of the same card in your opening hand, etc. What I discovered is that the MTGO shuffler isn't rigged--it's truly random. However, I've started (but not finished) a similar analysis for a real life version of drawing 100 sample hands and analyzing them the same way and have come to the conclusion that it's real life that has the rigged shuffling. What do you guys think of the attached results? Should the MTGO shuffler be changed to work more like real life? Do you know a general formula that would work for it? Should we shuffle differently in real life? Do you need an explanation on any of the stats or did I get anything wrong (probably)?
Links to Google Docs with PDFs
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByNR1o2kAOymM2FIWjVxcm1vODA/view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByNR1o2kAOymM2FIWjVxcm1vODA/view?usp=sharing
I don't think that if the MTGO shuffler worked like IRL shuffling it would be "nerfed" it would simply be more realistic and imperfect at randomization. Everyone is technically a bad shuffler as no one can truly independently and consciously create "randomness".
Links to Google Docs with PDFs
100 Sample hands on MTGO with GW Devotion (1st page), related statistical analysis (2nd page) and in-progress sample hands IRL (3rd page, ignore for now)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByNR1o2kAOymOWxYdTJpU1V5ZVU/view?usp=sharing