On page 16, Tim1137 and I posted versions of the deck without Dread Wanderer. Personally, I started Running Kalitas Maindeck, dropping binding mummy. Anointed Procession is an absolute mirror breaker, and overpowers control strategies.
The only real problem with cutting Dread Wanderer is no Turn 4 kill potential vs a goldfish. Without Dread Wanderer T1, the deck cannot curve to a T4 kill. Even RDW has difficulty attaining a T4 kill vs a goldfish in this standard.
Given moderate interaction, this is a 5 turn format. Mono Black Zombies is very predictable, in that I can likely guess 50+ of your initial 60 cards, and probably some of the sideboard.
B/W zombies can easily generate a turn 5 kill, as well as extend the game via lifedrain effects. Designed and piloted correctly, B/W Zombies can go mid to "deep deck", and win. B/W is midrange/go wide, and has string sweeper resist-recover character. It does have a rough game against the Blue/x stunt decks running counterspell effects particularly if lifegain and sweepers are robust.
Can I say that the reason that control is dead is because I haven't seen a control build with optimal cards in it. All I have seen are bungled messes like the list that won the SCG open when HoD released and ridiculous 10+ counterspell 24 land jokes that get steamrolled whenever an opponent resolves a one or two drop. Granted UR control may not be the best control build, but I haven't seen a constant skeleton of a control deck base other than Step One: Torrential Gearhulk, Step two Try to fit Nicol Bolas or Scarab God in some how for no reason. Control decks could be great in a mono red meta if players could build it properly.
Control is dead because you would require a red centric Manabase to run the available 3 drop sweepers that work. Also, removal is powerful enough to necessitate blue for a hexproof finisher. Unless y ou can work a non-creature finisher into a UR control deck, the problem of BW Zombies having Anguished Unmaking and Declaration in stone is not one control can solve.
Manabase problems aside, control has no "closer". I think some sort of control using Solemnity/Thing in Ice... Or similar combo has to emerge, and if it can, the deck is RWU with a transformative sideboard.
The clear Tier 1 decks are Ramunap Red/RDW, Black/x Zombies, and GB constrictor/Delerium. Mardu Vehicles, Oketra Monument Blue-white Spell Queller and God-Pharoh-Gift decks are tier 2.
Control is dead. I also did not see a new deck with more than 7 PT wins in constructed.
The viable archetypes are all identified, but the presence or abrade in RDW is going to thin out a lot of the decks relying on artifacts main deck.
Zombies and GB have Midrange potential. RDW does not have viable card advantage strategies. Sideboards everywhere are sure to run RDW hate; even main deck.
Im not seeing a 24+ constructed points decklists post from wotc. HOU top 16 had 36 points total at end of 16 rounds. Only 6 players showed 37-40 points.
If the best constructed deck record of HOU record is 8-2; and Im thinking it might be, what does that tell us?
Edit
Seems there is a single 9-1 constructed in the top 8, along with an 8-1-1. It would not suprise me if Ramunap red players did disproportionately well in draft. With Abrade being maindeckable artifact hate, and control in disarray, It looks like an Aggro centric format.
With 19 cards of thé 75 generating creature tokens, Anointed Procession becomes very breakable. If 2 of the 3 are out, the token rush is nigh unstoppable.
From what I have seen, little Gideon is a viable answer to blue combo decks such as Second Sun or Aetherflux Res decks. Planeswalker removal options outside of BW are very limited in standard at the moment. The card is underplayed due to 4drop Gideon.
Declaration in stone is an all star in mirror matches, but I have seen the card misplayed a lot. The real weakness with the deck is that Bygone Bishop is the draw engine. If an opponent thinks to exile the bishop Asap
Scrapheap Scrounger + Eternal Scourge seems to be problem for "American Control", with or without Marvel. Going to see if I can get a decklist from the pilot.
Re Panharmonicon, when i said double double, I meant 4 dmg total per zombie cast, not 6. The comment did make me compare the 3w enchantment to panharmonicon, and does give me ideas. The impact of double tokens vs double etb triggers is something I am looking at. Sam black ran a 6-4 deck manipulating the enchantment... It could make dark salvation into a "secure the wastes" effect vs control, and change the sideboarding approach.
As far As 21 land, the scg open atlanta t16 list was a 20 land deck in a 500 player event. I see this as becoming a 3 deck archetype mono black, b/w and b/u. I dont see a b/w/u zombie deck. Frank Karsten math wants 18b,12 of the splash color and 21 for 93% mana consistency with an end at 4 curve, 23 to end at 5. 24 land adds less than 1% consistency.
Ok, I can add a 5-1 into a top 8; then win the 8 to myy results list. UWR control is a tough and grindy matchup, but not unbeatable. If the deck is red centric and they curve into sweepers at turns 3 and 5-6, things can get ugly. Its definitely our hardest matchup.
Panharmonicon doubling diregraf and wayward servant triggers for cast zombies gets nuts, and the eerie interlude has been an "ace up my sleeve"
I dont get the reason for all this 5 drop nonsense, so im content at 21 land and sticking to 4 drops as top of curve, particularly 4 drops in ww. Cryptbreaker tends to help mitigate some troublesome draws.
My local meta is heavy on fetchland use and aggro - especially RDW/Naya, affinity and the occasional Merfolk deck. I do see Tron and mill decks; but control players tend to be extremely varied in general, thus the universal "answer" of oblivion ring.
While I am running only 20 lands and 4 Simian Spirit Guides, My curve ends at 3. The main problem I have with the deck is that Game 1 I have to be careful to get Kor Firewalker out before I drop the Blood Moon. The "filter" land allows for T1 Kor Firewalker via a Filter land/Simian Spirt Guide
Trying to copy paste a reply here - bear with me - something technical is going on with the quote.
716.2a At any point in the game, the player with priority may suggest a shortcut by describing a series of game choices, for all players, that may be legally taken based on the current game state and the predictable results of those choices. ... The outcome can't include conditional actions, where the outcome of a game event determines the next action a player takes.
Your opponent has an effect which is involuntary, and your reaching your desired game state occurs only if the opponent could order his library such that at the start of the shortcut, Ermakul is the bottom card in the library.
In OP - the correct proposed shortcut would be to "mill 30" presuming Ermakul is the bottom card in my opponent's deck.Denying you this opportunity is requiring the active player to presume Ermakul is in a position OTHER than the bottom of the deck after shuffling when deciding to mill 30.
If Ermakul is, AP's desired game state will be reached.
If Ermakul's position in the deck is anywhere else, resolution of ermakul's trigger will do nothing but return the game to a state where AP can simply mill 30 again.
Because Magic decks inherently follow a hypergeometric distribution, your result occurs if and only if Ermakul is the bottom card(s) post-shuffle. It also MUST occur unless your opponent always shuffles in such a way as to have Ermakul in a position OTHER than being the bottom card.
If the judge is called for "slow play", simply state that my opponent is always shuffling in such a manner that ermakul is NEVER the bottom card in his deck, because the moment it is and he mills 30 - I have all but won the game.
Given moderate interaction, this is a 5 turn format. Mono Black Zombies is very predictable, in that I can likely guess 50+ of your initial 60 cards, and probably some of the sideboard.
B/W zombies can easily generate a turn 5 kill, as well as extend the game via lifedrain effects. Designed and piloted correctly, B/W Zombies can go mid to "deep deck", and win. B/W is midrange/go wide, and has string sweeper resist-recover character. It does have a rough game against the Blue/x stunt decks running counterspell effects particularly if lifegain and sweepers are robust.
Everything except Ramunap red takes a hit. Red/x strategies show promise post rotation. Not much else does.
Control is dead because you would require a red centric Manabase to run the available 3 drop sweepers that work. Also, removal is powerful enough to necessitate blue for a hexproof finisher. Unless y ou can work a non-creature finisher into a UR control deck, the problem of BW Zombies having Anguished Unmaking and Declaration in stone is not one control can solve.
Manabase problems aside, control has no "closer". I think some sort of control using Solemnity/Thing in Ice... Or similar combo has to emerge, and if it can, the deck is RWU with a transformative sideboard.
Control is dead. I also did not see a new deck with more than 7 PT wins in constructed.
The viable archetypes are all identified, but the presence or abrade in RDW is going to thin out a lot of the decks relying on artifacts main deck.
Zombies and GB have Midrange potential. RDW does not have viable card advantage strategies. Sideboards everywhere are sure to run RDW hate; even main deck.
If the best constructed deck record of HOU record is 8-2; and Im thinking it might be, what does that tell us?
Edit
Seems there is a single 9-1 constructed in the top 8, along with an 8-1-1. It would not suprise me if Ramunap red players did disproportionately well in draft. With Abrade being maindeckable artifact hate, and control in disarray, It looks like an Aggro centric format.
4 Shambling Vent
4 Concealed Courtyard
2 Plains
2 Shefet Dunes
10 Swamp
Core:
4 Cryptbreaker
4 Wayward Servant
4 Lord of the Accursed
4 Diregraf Colossus
3 Anointed Procession
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
4 Dark Salvation
3 Hanweir Militia Captain
3 Binding Mummy
4 Fatal Push
3 Declaration in Stone
3 Relentless Dead
3 Selfless Spirit
1 Declaration in Stone
1 Ayli Eternal Pilgrim
1 Gideon of the Trials
2 Never//Return
2 Dusk//Dawn
2 Anguished Unmaking
With 19 cards of thé 75 generating creature tokens, Anointed Procession becomes very breakable. If 2 of the 3 are out, the token rush is nigh unstoppable.
Declaration in stone is an all star in mirror matches, but I have seen the card misplayed a lot. The real weakness with the deck is that Bygone Bishop is the draw engine. If an opponent thinks to exile the bishop Asap
As far As 21 land, the scg open atlanta t16 list was a 20 land deck in a 500 player event. I see this as becoming a 3 deck archetype mono black, b/w and b/u. I dont see a b/w/u zombie deck. Frank Karsten math wants 18b,12 of the splash color and 21 for 93% mana consistency with an end at 4 curve, 23 to end at 5. 24 land adds less than 1% consistency.
Panharmonicon doubling diregraf and wayward servant triggers for cast zombies gets nuts, and the eerie interlude has been an "ace up my sleeve"
I dont get the reason for all this 5 drop nonsense, so im content at 21 land and sticking to 4 drops as top of curve, particularly 4 drops in ww. Cryptbreaker tends to help mitigate some troublesome draws.
4 Concealed Courtyard
4 Shambling Vent
3 Plains
10 Swamp
Core(27):
4 Cryptbreaker
2 Dread Wanderer
2 Binding Mummy
4 Wayward Servant
4 Metallic Mimic
4 Diregraf Colossus
4 Lord of the Accursed
3 Panharmonicon
3 Fatal Push
3 Declaration in Stone
3 Anguished Unmaking
3 Eerie Interlude
2 Dread Wanderer
1 Binding Mummy
3 Relentless Dead
4 Grasp of Darkness
1 Eerie Interlude
1 Fatal Push
1 Declaration in Stone
Really need a sacrifice outlet to make relentless dead work. Panharmonicon is plain explosive. The deck requires piloting around possible board wipes.
Record so far locally
4-0; 5-0; 5-0;
nest of scarabs
4 Battlefield Forge
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Rugged Prarie
4 Simian Spirit Guide
Prison
4 Blood Moon
3 Chalice of the Void
3 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Supression Field
4 Oblivion Ring
4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Helix
Beatdown
4 Kor Firewalker
3 Monastery Mentor
3 Goblin Rabblemaster
1 Alesha, Who Smiles at Death
3 Boros Reckoner
1 Batterskull
4 Avalanche Riders
3 Ghostly Prison
2 Magus of the Moon
1 Nahiri, The Harbringer
1 Emrakul, The Aeons Torn
Batterskull + Boros Reckoner + Boros Charm is a backup wincon against "go long" decks or in the mirror.
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death is tech in the sideboard that brings back every creature in the deck except for Boros Reckoner, and is a wincon if Avalanche Riders is in the graveyard due to recursion tech.
My local meta is heavy on fetchland use and aggro - especially RDW/Naya, affinity and the occasional Merfolk deck. I do see Tron and mill decks; but control players tend to be extremely varied in general, thus the universal "answer" of oblivion ring.
While I am running only 20 lands and 4 Simian Spirit Guides, My curve ends at 3. The main problem I have with the deck is that Game 1 I have to be careful to get Kor Firewalker out before I drop the Blood Moon. The "filter" land allows for T1 Kor Firewalker via a Filter land/Simian Spirt Guide
Your opponent has an effect which is involuntary, and your reaching your desired game state occurs only if the opponent could order his library such that at the start of the shortcut, Ermakul is the bottom card in the library.
In OP - the correct proposed shortcut would be to "mill 30" presuming Ermakul is the bottom card in my opponent's deck.Denying you this opportunity is requiring the active player to presume Ermakul is in a position OTHER than the bottom of the deck after shuffling when deciding to mill 30.
If Ermakul is, AP's desired game state will be reached.
If Ermakul's position in the deck is anywhere else, resolution of ermakul's trigger will do nothing but return the game to a state where AP can simply mill 30 again.
Because Magic decks inherently follow a hypergeometric distribution, your result occurs if and only if Ermakul is the bottom card(s) post-shuffle. It also MUST occur unless your opponent always shuffles in such a way as to have Ermakul in a position OTHER than being the bottom card.
If the judge is called for "slow play", simply state that my opponent is always shuffling in such a manner that ermakul is NEVER the bottom card in his deck, because the moment it is and he mills 30 - I have all but won the game.