There is no mechanism in which excessive pile and riffle shuffling makes a deck too even.
I did not intend to imply this. All I meant was that if you shuffle your deck too little using pile-/riffle shuffle it would not necessarily present as a clumped deck, but rather an unusually evenly distributed one.
I think you may be looking at the problem from the wrong angle. What if your constructed deck is the insufficiently randomized one? It makes sense as a 60 card deck is harder to randomize than a 40 card one. If you do a lot of pile-/riffle shuffling a badly shuffled deck would most likely present itself as being overly even rather than clumped. You may be inadvertently cheating.
By your description it sounds like your friend is in the worse half of the players in the tournament, i.e he would have a winrate at less than 50% against the average person in the tournament. If this is the case the chance of him going 15-1 or better is less than 0.5^16 + 16*0.5^16 = 17/65536. That's not even accounting for the fact that he meets above average decks, due to pairings. Those stats speak of more than luck. Why don't you analyze what he is doing right instead of tilting?
I got Act 4th pick in my PR's top 8 and played it in my RW aggro deck. I had it in my hand several games, but never cast it. Don't think it is good in every archtype. That being said: Its still by far the best card in the pack.
Sidenote: Though I never casted the Act I still won one game off it. How? Heretic's Punishment
Team left of us:
Dismember (98%)
Grim Affliction (98%)
Spire Monitor (75%)/Slash Panther(25%)
Mycosynth Wellspring(70%)/Kiln Walker(30%)
Sickleslicer(50%)/Slash Panter(50%)
Caress of Phyrexia (85%)
The rest is too chaotic/irrelevant to list
Team two seats left of us:
Blinding Souleater (90%)
Shattered Angel (90%)
Spire Monitor (25%)/Slash Panther(75%)
Shriek Raptor(65%)/Kiln Walker(15%)/Mycosynth Wellspring(20%)
Sickleslicer(50%)/Slash Panther(50%)
The rest is too chaotic/irrelevant to list
Relevant cards assumed to be left in the pack:
P1P1: Impaler Shrike/Razor Swine
P1P2: Parasitic Implant/Death-Hood Cobra/Whispering Spectre/Birthing Pod/Spined Thopter
P1P3: Invader Parasite/Numbing Dose/Psychic Barrier
P1P4: Phyrexian Hulk/Victorious Destruction/Kiln Walker (Probably)/Glistner Elf
I think we ought to keep our options open with either the panther or the sickle. While the flier is quite good, I don't think it is worth committing to white for. Its ability is worthless against infect and is hardly ever triggered late game.
As for /panther vs. sickle I am a bit uncertain. Perhaps sickle is the pick as it is playable in more archtypes (I've always felt the panther is a bit lacking in a control, deck. Neither a good blocker or stable finisher).
Slash Panther
A short summary of the draft so far. Note that the numbers are very rough and just meant as an indication.
Our Picks:
Moltensteel Dragon
Volt Charge
Porcelain Legionnaire
Sickle Slicer
Team left of us:
Dismember (98%)
Grim Affliction (98%)
Spire Monitor (75%)/Slash Panther(25%)
Mycosynth Wellspring(70%)/Kiln Walker(30%)
Team two seats left of us:
Blinding Souleater (90%)
Shattered Angel (90%)
Spire Monitor (25%)/Slash Panther(75%)
Shriek Raptor(65%)/Kiln Walker(15%)/Mycosynth Wellspring(20%)
Relevant cards assumed to be left in the pack:
P1P1: Impaler Shrike/Razor Swine
P1P2: Parasitic Implant/Death-Hood Cobra/Whispering Spectre/Birthing Pod/Spined Thopter
P1P3: Invader Parasite/Numbing Dose/Psychic Barrier
P1P4: Phyrexian Hulk/Victorious Destruction/Kiln Walker (Probably)/Glistner Elf
I think we ought to stay flexible. While the Monitor might be the most powerful card in the pack, the power discrepancy really isn't big enough to warrant a commitment. The one time I played the Explosion it was really awful for me. Way too many conditions for a symmetric effect.
Most of the red cards don't impress either. The Parasite fills the same role and isn't that much stronger than a Flameborn Viron or Gnothosaur, who can be picked up late if our deck needs them.
I think the pick is the legionnaire. It keeps us flexible and is quite strong
As far as natural signals go, we're probably placing the team two steps to our left (E?) in white, which is quite relevant due to it being so shallow in MBS.
If you sum up the probabilities listed above, you will see that there is a 53.5% chance of drawing 2 or fewer lands, and a 46.5% chance of drawing 3 or more lands.
This means that in this case, casting LtS is the correct play. Which is not the result I expected.
Not really. You're only calculating the probability of outcomes being positive or negative. If the outcomes are properly weighed you would find that they cancel each other out.
Take a simpler example: 39 irrelevant cards and a Galvanic Blast. Would revealing and removing the top five cards make a difference to your chances of drawing the blast in the next couple of draws? No. While the far most likely outcome is that you remove five non-blast cards (thus increasing your chances of hitting the blast) you might also wind up removing the blast entirely which would have the opposite effect. If you bother to do the sums you would find that the chance of ripping the blast is equal before and after the exercise.
no offense, bro -- but if you're manascrewed, you probably shouldn't be casting lead the stampede to just preordain land to the bottom!
A way to look at this is: At the time Lead the Stampede is cast, would knowing the bottom five cards of the library be a disadvantage? When playing LtS you always have the choice of revealing nothing and putting the remaining cards on the bottom of the deck.
As for the original question, I feel one pack less of Untamed Might and Plague Stingers has done wonders for the infect match-up. The combination would so often reduce the game a simple gamble on whether or not instant speed removal was drawn. It still happens, but much less frequently.
I'd prefer the Skyguard from this pack. While I agree that the acolyte is awesome against infect I've found it very lacking in the other matchups. While I'd defiantly play it in our deck I'd rather not waste my 5th pick on it. In my experience it tends to go rather late both on modo and IRL.
I did not intend to imply this. All I meant was that if you shuffle your deck too little using pile-/riffle shuffle it would not necessarily present as a clumped deck, but rather an unusually evenly distributed one.
Sidenote: Though I never casted the Act I still won one game off it. How? Heretic's Punishment
Summary:
Our Picks:
Moltensteel Dragon
Volt Charge
Porcelain Legionnaire
Sickleslicer
Shattered Angel
Sensor Splicer
Ogre Menial
Team left of us:
Dismember (98%)
Grim Affliction (98%)
Spire Monitor (75%)/Slash Panther(25%)
Mycosynth Wellspring(70%)/Kiln Walker(30%)
Sickleslicer(50%)/Slash Panter(50%)
Caress of Phyrexia (85%)
The rest is too chaotic/irrelevant to list
Team two seats left of us:
Blinding Souleater (90%)
Shattered Angel (90%)
Spire Monitor (25%)/Slash Panther(75%)
Shriek Raptor(65%)/Kiln Walker(15%)/Mycosynth Wellspring(20%)
Sickleslicer(50%)/Slash Panther(50%)
The rest is too chaotic/irrelevant to list
Relevant cards assumed to be left in the pack:
P1P1: Impaler Shrike/Razor Swine
P1P2: Parasitic Implant/Death-Hood Cobra/Whispering Spectre/Birthing Pod/Spined Thopter
P1P3: Invader Parasite/Numbing Dose/Psychic Barrier
P1P4: Phyrexian Hulk/Victorious Destruction/Kiln Walker (Probably)/Glistner Elf
As for /panther vs. sickle I am a bit uncertain. Perhaps sickle is the pick as it is playable in more archtypes (I've always felt the panther is a bit lacking in a control, deck. Neither a good blocker or stable finisher).
A short summary of the draft so far. Note that the numbers are very rough and just meant as an indication.
Our Picks:
Moltensteel Dragon
Volt Charge
Porcelain Legionnaire
Sickle Slicer
Team left of us:
Dismember (98%)
Grim Affliction (98%)
Spire Monitor (75%)/Slash Panther(25%)
Mycosynth Wellspring(70%)/Kiln Walker(30%)
Team two seats left of us:
Blinding Souleater (90%)
Shattered Angel (90%)
Spire Monitor (25%)/Slash Panther(75%)
Shriek Raptor(65%)/Kiln Walker(15%)/Mycosynth Wellspring(20%)
Relevant cards assumed to be left in the pack:
P1P1: Impaler Shrike/Razor Swine
P1P2: Parasitic Implant/Death-Hood Cobra/Whispering Spectre/Birthing Pod/Spined Thopter
P1P3: Invader Parasite/Numbing Dose/Psychic Barrier
P1P4: Phyrexian Hulk/Victorious Destruction/Kiln Walker (Probably)/Glistner Elf
Most of the red cards don't impress either. The Parasite fills the same role and isn't that much stronger than a Flameborn Viron or Gnothosaur, who can be picked up late if our deck needs them.
I think the pick is the legionnaire. It keeps us flexible and is quite strong
As far as natural signals go, we're probably placing the team two steps to our left (E?) in white, which is quite relevant due to it being so shallow in MBS.
Not really. You're only calculating the probability of outcomes being positive or negative. If the outcomes are properly weighed you would find that they cancel each other out.
Take a simpler example: 39 irrelevant cards and a Galvanic Blast. Would revealing and removing the top five cards make a difference to your chances of drawing the blast in the next couple of draws? No. While the far most likely outcome is that you remove five non-blast cards (thus increasing your chances of hitting the blast) you might also wind up removing the blast entirely which would have the opposite effect. If you bother to do the sums you would find that the chance of ripping the blast is equal before and after the exercise.
A way to look at this is: At the time Lead the Stampede is cast, would knowing the bottom five cards of the library be a disadvantage? When playing LtS you always have the choice of revealing nothing and putting the remaining cards on the bottom of the deck.
As for the original question, I feel one pack less of Untamed Might and Plague Stingers has done wonders for the infect match-up. The combination would so often reduce the game a simple gamble on whether or not instant speed removal was drawn. It still happens, but much less frequently.