This is a rather misinformed statement. There will not be a 10-year shortage of natural gas (which is Russia's primary export). States will just move to an alternative energy source like oil or coal. Energy sources tend to be extremely replaceable in the long term (several years... I am speaking "long term" investment). The Middle Eastern countries discovered this very soon after their 1973 oil embargo, which is why they are skittish to throw their weight around with oil again. It is also why Saudi Arabia has tried to keep oil prices at a "reasonable" level in recent years.
The other issue with this statement is that it suffers from the liberal "peak oil" myth. Energy sources in the world will be tapped when they become economically viable to do so so that more gas and oil can be produced. Oil fields are never "used up" in the aspect of being complete deplete of oil. The oil field still has the overwhelming majority of oil when it is "used up"; but, this oil is simply no longer economically viable to extract at the moment.
At the current high price of energy, this has already become the case. The United States is quickly reaching energy independence and is projected to become one of the largest net energy exporters in the world. One proposed solution to the Russia debacle is to import natural gas from the United States, which can completely replace Russia's supply in the long term; but, the capacity is still building, at the moment.
I am not speaking of the long term, which won't effect the situation in Ukraine right now. It would take about 10 years to replace the petroleum exports of Russia, which are substantial, with economically viable alternatives (not coming at a great increased cost causing recession) whether they would be replaced with other sources of natural gas or oil or a different energy such as coal or solar, wind, or a different technology. By then Russia will have done what it wants in Ukraine. The redeployment of infrastructure assets of export-import terminals and transportation networks or the building of new mines or wind and solar projects is not cheap or fast.
One must understand though that the United States exporting its natural gas will come at a cost to the citizens there. Prices are about $5 per million BTU in the US and over double that in most of EU. If US decides to export its natural gas, prices there will rise for consumers, including manufacturing concerns, eliminating the best cost advantage you have. If I were in your place, I would urge the development of the recent discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and off the coast of Greenland. If you are thinking of jobs and trade balance, even though Greenland is part of EU, the fields there will likely be developed by America companies and manned by America and Canada workers as there are not enough available labor with the skill to do so in Greenland or EU, aiding those issues.
As far as concerning peak oil, it will happen one day, but I very much doubt in my time here on Earth, and I am a young man. With the recent development of several new surfactants, oil recovery rates could reach 75%. The current average is about 30% in US existing fields, alone that leaves a lot of room for much future production if oil companies there are allowed to implement those new chemicals.
We oil producers are well aware of the negative impact short term price spikes can have on demand and the bad consequences for longer market developments, not just our own, but importing consumer economies.
You Americans assume so much behind the words of others. It is no surprise your politicians are let so easily to not do anything for you and behave so crazy.
Just because Europe is not interested in tapping alternative sources, doesn't mean they don't exist. EU could be 100% Russian oil free within the next 10 years if it wanted. Not that it's necessary or even the best course of action, but there's no reason to remain slaved to one tap.
Of course, but 10 years from now is not going to alter the options available for dealing with the situation with Ukraine.
I do not consider reserves to be any indication of sustainable economy.
Of course it's not, but it's enough to last 10 years. And ten years of global oil shortages or much higher oil prices (which would be the case if a large portion of Russia oil was removed from international markets) would break the will, if not the economies, of most of the West.
And correct me if I'm wrong, but selling oil or gas to China is kind of a problem when you don't have pipe capacity going that direction. They shipped, what, 15 million barrels to China in 2013? That's nothing. Not to mention China is shaping up to become Russia's biggest threat for the first half of the 21 century.
15 million tonnes, or about 300,000 barrels per day. The pipelines are currently being expanded though, and capacity will reach 67 million tonnes annual, 1.3 million barrels per day, by 2017-2018. If current abandoned Soviet era pipelines were refitted and brought back into service, they could add another 500,000 barrels per day of capacity.
China is shaping up to be every ones biggest threat/competitor in the coming century. Russia will have to make nice with some reasonably large population, be it the West, China, or India, in order to avoid slipping back into third world status due to lack of being part of a large trade network. They have alienated India beyond hope so it is the West or China. Given the situation in Ukraine, it doesn't look like it is going to be the West.
I guess Putin could be OK with being relegated as a third world country, but if not, China is the only other option.
Even if a couple million barrels per day of production were cut from Russia exports, that would only amount to ~$75 billion per year in revenue. Russia has about half a trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves it can burn through if need be.
It's all moot though, because in the end they could just sell anything Europe doesn't want to buy to China at a small to moderate discount to international prices, and sanctions would have almost no impact whatsoever.
Longer term Western Europe could make the changes necessary to not require Russia petrol, but would take several years. Not in time to effect what they can do in/about Ukraine.
This deck is very afford able too. For less than $20 US it can put together. If you are on strict budget, replace the Dust Bowl with more Remote Farm and it become less than $10! Excellent!!!
The game store I play at allows employees to play in tournaments, but not win prizes. As example, if there were 4 employees playing and they won first thru fourth place, first prize would go to the fifth place finisher, as that's the next person who is not an employee and so on.
Actually sanctioning the Russian Federation would be crippling to it's already ailing economy. It's not likely, but do not underestimate the power of economic warfare.
The only thing of substance Russia exports is natural resources, namely natural gas and oil (over half their exports), with various metals taking up another sizable chunk. Taking these supplies out of international markets would cause their prices to skyrocket and likely result in recessions in many countries, including the United States. It might be possible to offset some Russian oil exports by lifting Iranian sanctions, but is that even a political option? Of course all of this is assuming one could convince China to forego Russian minerals, and at what price would that come?
Aside from that, Russia's debt as a portion of GDP is less than 10% and their foreign exchange reserves amount to roughly 25% of their GDP.
It would be nearly impossible to starve Russia out. At the least it would take decades.
I am not speaking of the long term, which won't effect the situation in Ukraine right now. It would take about 10 years to replace the petroleum exports of Russia, which are substantial, with economically viable alternatives (not coming at a great increased cost causing recession) whether they would be replaced with other sources of natural gas or oil or a different energy such as coal or solar, wind, or a different technology. By then Russia will have done what it wants in Ukraine. The redeployment of infrastructure assets of export-import terminals and transportation networks or the building of new mines or wind and solar projects is not cheap or fast.
One must understand though that the United States exporting its natural gas will come at a cost to the citizens there. Prices are about $5 per million BTU in the US and over double that in most of EU. If US decides to export its natural gas, prices there will rise for consumers, including manufacturing concerns, eliminating the best cost advantage you have. If I were in your place, I would urge the development of the recent discoveries in the Mediterranean Sea and off the coast of Greenland. If you are thinking of jobs and trade balance, even though Greenland is part of EU, the fields there will likely be developed by America companies and manned by America and Canada workers as there are not enough available labor with the skill to do so in Greenland or EU, aiding those issues.
As far as concerning peak oil, it will happen one day, but I very much doubt in my time here on Earth, and I am a young man. With the recent development of several new surfactants, oil recovery rates could reach 75%. The current average is about 30% in US existing fields, alone that leaves a lot of room for much future production if oil companies there are allowed to implement those new chemicals.
We oil producers are well aware of the negative impact short term price spikes can have on demand and the bad consequences for longer market developments, not just our own, but importing consumer economies.
You Americans assume so much behind the words of others. It is no surprise your politicians are let so easily to not do anything for you and behave so crazy.
Of course, but 10 years from now is not going to alter the options available for dealing with the situation with Ukraine.
Of course it's not, but it's enough to last 10 years. And ten years of global oil shortages or much higher oil prices (which would be the case if a large portion of Russia oil was removed from international markets) would break the will, if not the economies, of most of the West.
15 million tonnes, or about 300,000 barrels per day. The pipelines are currently being expanded though, and capacity will reach 67 million tonnes annual, 1.3 million barrels per day, by 2017-2018. If current abandoned Soviet era pipelines were refitted and brought back into service, they could add another 500,000 barrels per day of capacity.
China is shaping up to be every ones biggest threat/competitor in the coming century. Russia will have to make nice with some reasonably large population, be it the West, China, or India, in order to avoid slipping back into third world status due to lack of being part of a large trade network. They have alienated India beyond hope so it is the West or China. Given the situation in Ukraine, it doesn't look like it is going to be the West.
I guess Putin could be OK with being relegated as a third world country, but if not, China is the only other option.
Here is a good news story about Russia, oil exports, and China: Russian Oil Exports Shift East
If you are speaking of crude oil, no it could not. There's not enough global spare capacity to compensate for Russia production, only a few hundred thousand barrel per day: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook 2012-2015
Russia exports over three million barrels per day to EU countries: U.S. Energy Information Administration Russia Analysis
Even if a couple million barrels per day of production were cut from Russia exports, that would only amount to ~$75 billion per year in revenue. Russia has about half a trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves it can burn through if need be.
It's all moot though, because in the end they could just sell anything Europe doesn't want to buy to China at a small to moderate discount to international prices, and sanctions would have almost no impact whatsoever.
Longer term Western Europe could make the changes necessary to not require Russia petrol, but would take several years. Not in time to effect what they can do in/about Ukraine.
22 Plains
2 Remote Farm
2 Dust Bowl
Creatures (18):
3 Ramosian Sergeant
2 Ramosian Lieutenant
4 Steadfast Guard
1 Shield Dancer
2 Ballista Squad
3 Voice of Truth
1 Reveille Squad
1 Ramosian Sky Marshal
1 Jhovall Queen
2 Disenchant
4 Reverent Mantra
Other (10):
2 Seal of Cleansing
4 Story Circle
4 Parallax Wave
1 Seal of Cleansing
4 Topple
4 Defender en-Vec
1 Lightbringer
1 Distorting Lens
2 Disenchant
1 Nightwind Glider
1 Voice of Truth
This deck is very afford able too. For less than $20 US it can put together. If you are on strict budget, replace the Dust Bowl with more Remote Farm and it become less than $10! Excellent!!!
The only thing of substance Russia exports is natural resources, namely natural gas and oil (over half their exports), with various metals taking up another sizable chunk. Taking these supplies out of international markets would cause their prices to skyrocket and likely result in recessions in many countries, including the United States. It might be possible to offset some Russian oil exports by lifting Iranian sanctions, but is that even a political option? Of course all of this is assuming one could convince China to forego Russian minerals, and at what price would that come?
Aside from that, Russia's debt as a portion of GDP is less than 10% and their foreign exchange reserves amount to roughly 25% of their GDP.
It would be nearly impossible to starve Russia out. At the least it would take decades.