- Fernling
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Member for 10 years, 2 months, and 23 days
Last active Sun, Jun, 10 2018 19:57:41
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k0no posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)So hey, it's not a huge amount of time since the announcement but I guess Jace didn't break the format. Go modernPosted in: Modern Archives -
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Ym1r posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern Archives
That is true, we rarely have 1 card single-handedly destroying modern. The Eldrazi winter, our recent worst modern ever saw an influx of cards breaking the format.Quote from idSurge »I mean its hard in Modern to 'predict' anything, did anyone predict BR Hollow One? Or this Mardu deck, or whatever else? No, they got tweaked, found out, explored and iterated on.
I just find it hard to believe that Jace by himself, will do anything to empower 1 specific deck, to unheard of (for today's diverse field) meta shares. Its a great card, but its not that great.
Pod was banned exactly because there would be more creatures making it better.
There have been cases where 1 card was just too strong, but these were mostly banned in the beginning. There have also been single cards which were too strong for the format (i.e. Deathrite), but these are extreme exceptions, and I don't think Jace will be one of them.
I fully agree with Ktk, in a year from now, we will probably be looking at a decent format, with different decks, and people hating on the flavor of the month. -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Week 1 Day 1 of the new paper metagame. We've already had about a week of MTGO unban legality, so this will be the first week where BBE and JTMS are legal across the board. Based on the Modern trajectory from last year, I think it's pretty clear what the metagame is likely to do, and it's pretty obvious what I'm going to predict: the format will absorb both of these cards without much issue. We'll see short-term increases in both BBE and JTMS decks, but these will fold into the general Modern cycle of metagames shifts. We will also see no significant, corresponding uptick in linear decks beyond what we normally saw in pre-unban Modern. This means that big mana, Dredge, Affinity, Bogles, etc. will not exceed their 2017 metagame highs, despite sensationalist claims that these decks will explode to prey on BBE/JTMS decks. By a similar token, we should not see JTMS decks homogenize around any single strategy. We should continue to see a variety of JTMS decks depending on the metagame, just as Grixis, Jeskai, and UW are all viable in different metagames. We'll also see decks like Temur Scapeshift, Temur Midrange, UR Moon/Breach, Miracles, etc. see more legs as they ride off JTMS's power.Posted in: Modern Archives
Overall, we'll see Modern's diversity continue. We'll be back here in 6/8/12 months defending Modern from naysayers and doomsayers who want 12+ cards banned and have secretly solved the format with some new broken deck that needs immediate banning.
Re: DeCandio
His articles are typically horrible, but he's a good player and I'm sure he's a fine dude in person. The internet just brings out the worst in people, and DeCandio's "worst" just happens to be extremely annoying when it comes to Modern. I don't think a lot of people take his Modern writing very seriously, however, so I think it's mostly a fleeting annoyance and not a lasting problem.
EDIT: I'll also add on DeCandio that he's in the same category of Modern haters that tend to only hate the format when they are doing badly in it. Once they do well, their outlook improves. It's pretty immature but that's the internet for you. -
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WarMachinePrime posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)I will leave it at this. (In my opinion)Posted in: Modern Archives
DeCandio will be proven wrong over JTMS. Modern will absorb it and continue to be diverse/wide open and thrive until WotC prints something or unbans something to unbalance it from its current state.
Enjoy the format folks, its pretty good right now, not perfect, but pretty good. -
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WarMachinePrime posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from ktkenshinx »Quote from WarMachinePrime »Well, guess which whiny dingbat just pulled down SCG Indy with GDS.
I'm sure we'll get another article with more Modern hyperbole, either that he's solved the format and takes it all back, or that the post-unban metagame means that his recent success doesn't mean anything and the format is still dying.
Also, it's crazy that players get better results when they play decent decks. Not like Mono G Devotion at a GP.
Yep, now he will figure his blather is justified with his win and his head will swell as well. I saw a lot of luck on his side in that final game vs. ETron. His opponent drew poorly and mulliganed into poor hands as well while he basically had the nut draw Game one and close to it Game three. -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from WarMachinePrime »Well, guess which whiny dingbat just pulled down SCG Indy with GDS.
I'm sure we'll get another article with more Modern hyperbole, either that he's solved the format and takes it all back, or that the post-unban metagame means that his recent success doesn't mean anything and the format is still dying.
Also, it's crazy that players get better results when they play decent decks. Not like Mono G Devotion at a GP. -
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Spsiegel1987 posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Yeah, pretty interesting that as more people test the two unbanned cards that BBE is being called the better card. The first two days, everyone said Jace was mulling Jund and BBE.Posted in: Modern Archives
BBE has been so fantastic in Jund. Jund really turns the corner fast, and K-Command feels as gross as it did in 2016 when Grixis Control used the card. K-Command has been less of a utility card in jund and now a major bomb and core of the deck.
I'm excited to see what Jace and BBE decks emerge.
I hope Ponza doesn't do great, I don't look forward to blood moon locks. -
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idSurge posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)That 'article' is a tumblr grade blog post. Pretty embarrassing honestly.Posted in: Modern Archives -
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ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)In other but related news, DeCandio posts one of his worst articles to date:Posted in: Modern Archives
http://www.starcitygames.com/article/36642_Moderns-Last-Hurrah.html
The hyperbole in this article is off the charts even by DeCandio's usual standards. He even admits in the comments that he doesn't care about Modern! I just don't understand why SCG is allowing these kinds of strong claims to be published by an author who doesn't even really want to be writing about the format. I suspect there are editor-based assignments, but DeCandio's Modern articles just detract from his and SCG's credibility. I'm all for a good critique of the JTMS unban, but the evidence bar for that article is way higher than the bar DeCandio is currently eking by at.
Quote from h0lydiva »Well the new decklist posting policy is great. It also probably means I will get all my 5-0s posted
But yeah it tells us nothing about the meta BUT we get to see all the spicy lists that got a 5-0 which is very cool.
I actually think there is a way to use these data dumps to create some metagame picture. It definitely isnt' as descriptive as the full dataset, but there are some interesting takeaways here:
1. Look for absent decks. Over time, if a deck is consistently missing from the data dump, there's a good chance that deck is not very successful. That's just how the statistics would work out in a large enough sample of weeks. For example, Grishoalbrand isn't here at all despite a recent GP T8. That's interesting and, if this kept up I would doubt the deck is as good as the GP suggested.
2. Look for unique card appearances. If decks are using a card a lot, that's a good indicator (not measurement; indicator) of its overall prevalence across archetypes. For instance, JTMS shows up in 8 unique decklists of 53 posted decklists. Goyf is in 8 as well, Shadow is in 6, Snapcaster is in 16, BBE is in 6, etc. Over time, this gives us a really decent estimate of card prevalence across the format.
3. Look for color appearances. If certain color combinations are regularly appearing, that makes me believe many people are experimenting in those colors. If a certain combination isn't as prevalent, it's either not popular or very solidified.
Not metagame standings by any means, but still cool ways to use the data. -
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Wraithpk posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 10/02/18)Posted in: Modern Archives
Take anything Todd says about a blue deck with a HUGE grain of salt. He thinks Twin was the biggest cancer in Modern's history, he thought Death's Shadow needed to be banned because it was going to oppress the format, and he's said many times in the past that he thought Jace would literally destroy Modern if it were ever unbanned. I like Todd as a streamer, he makes fun decks, but he is incapable of being objective about cards and strategies that he personally doesn't like.Quote from Pistallion »Death's Shadow is much more Tempo than anything else.
To go back to what we were talking about before, Todd Steven's new article i think puts up a good point:
Blue was already arguably the best color in Modern, with four of the nine decks at #PTRIX that had 5% or more of the metagame share being blue with Grixis Death's Shadow, Jeskai Control, U/R Gifts Storm, and U/W Control. That's of course not even counting Five-Color Humans with their sixteen maindeck blue cards. Snapcaster Mage has been the most played creature in Modern for quite some time now without help from the most powerful planeswalker ever printed. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
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Decks that are fast enough for us to want to clear on turn 3 are handled by flaying tendrils and in the case of counters company, flaying tendrils is just the best board wipe we can bring in the matchup at any mana cost as well.
Some mix of flaying tendrils and damnations(2/1 for me currently) is vastly superior to last reckoning imo.
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http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=114590