-
- Kathal
- Registered User
-
Member for 10 years, 2 months, and 29 days
Last active Sat, Sep, 14 2019 10:22:53
- 1 Follower
- 1,495 Total Posts
- 312 Thanks
-
Nov 30, 20183
AvalonAurora posted a message on Your most favorite unban in Modern and why?Why isn't Wild Nacatl winning because of it being a cat and this being an online poll?Posted in: Modern -
Nov 22, 20181
Wraithpk posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)I doubt Twin is coming. I don't think we'll see any unbans until early next year, and I think it'll most likely be SFM.Posted in: Modern Archives -
Nov 5, 20183
ktkenshinx posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 01/10/2018)Interesting datapoints from this GP:Posted in: Modern Archives
The T32 is packed with players who have 2 or 3 Byes. Literally 30 of the 32 players have either 2 or 3 Byes. That's 94% of the T32 field going in with 2 Byes. By comparison, the dataset to-date (minus GP Stockholm and GP HK which I haven't added) averages 72% of the T32 field on 2 or 3 Byes.
The only two players who didn't have 2 or 3 Byes were Mattia Lido on Bant Spirits (12-3) and Edward Vance on Tron (12-3). The main thing I'd conclude from that is that Bant Spirits is a really good deck. Not only did it win the event, but it posted a strong Day 2 to T32 conversion rate. Plus it has a strong GP pedigree going into this event, not to mention the 12-3 run by a 0 Bye player. This deck is probably better than its metagame share would suggest. Of course, the second thing to conclude about that is we see yet another Stirrings deck take a notable performance metal.
Speaking of Stirrings decks, it's interesting to observe the top most common T32 decks by number of Byes. Note again that 2 GP aren't included yet, but will be updated later. Here's the breakdown:
0 Byes: Gx Tron (23%) and Humans (10%)
1 Bye: Hollow One (14%), Burn (11%), UW Control (11%)
2 Byes: Humans (10%) and Gx Tron (9%)
3 Byes: KCI (15.5%) and UW Control (15.5%)
With the exception of the 1 Bye crowd, every other Bye bracket favors a Stirrings deck as one of their top choices. Notably, Gx Tron is BY FAR the most common 0 Bye deck that makes it to the T32. This again underscores this deck's power. Of course, the KCI pedigree requires no additional introduction, given the breakout GP performance we've seen the deck put up this year.
There are lots of interesting takeaways from this, but for me, the most interesting is again the giant orange (red?) flag we keep seeing on Ancient Stirrings. Stirrings decks continue to appear the standout GP decks of 2018 by most performance metrics I've seen and it's not super close. They shine in both individual GP and as a whole. I will definitely return to my ban-Stirrings/unban-Preordain platform if we see another GP like this one. For now, I'm keeping it as a bright orange flag, but could probably be convinced to fly it red. Maybe adding the other 2 GP will change the numbers too. -
Jun 11, 2018
1
Mortal Coil posted a message on The State of Modern Thread (B&R 16/04/2018)Posted in: Modern ArchivesQuote from Kathal »Quote from pizzap »NBL Modern is a different format than Modern, so I don't think it has any use for predicting unbans.
Exactly.
As a NBL player and crafter, I get really mad on how bad most of the top 32 decks were designed. I'm also surprised that nobody played Tezzerator (arguably the strongest Control deck), Affinity(with Skullclamp, only one guy in day 2) and Dredge, however, I attribute this to the lack of knowledge about the format than anything else.
Though, the deck BBD played is REALLY good (from a deck design perspective), it's Eldrazi match-up is really good.
Also, something people need to realise about NBL Modern, the angst from Combo is an illusion, Control decks either play Chalice or Top + Counterbalance, the "Tempo" decks have enough disruption (be it Discard, Counters (MM, Spell Pierce, Leak), or hatebears (Thalia says hi)) and all other decks have either a combination of the last mentioned things, or can just race you.
So yeah, for me it was expected that the metagame will look something like this, cause it is the "lazy" approach (people knew what is obviously good so they played, for the next layer they didn't want to invest enough time).
Greetings,
Kathal
Well, in their defense, NBLM Tezz is probably about as punishing of poor play as Lantern Control. At this point it's pretty much the strongest control deck in the format thanks to its ability cheat on mana, but it's not an easy deck to pick up. Too many tutor effects. Honestly, I was more surprised at the lack of Pyroclamp. It's a pretty forgiving archetype, it does reasonably well against Eldrazi aggro, and you get to play Skullclamp, Treasure Cruise, Chrome Mox, Jitte, MM, and Probe. Ditto for Death and Taxes, pretty easy to play, reasonable matchups across the board. -
Jan 24, 2018
1
finalnub posted a message on Grishoalbrand / Griselbrand ReanimatorI'm playing a bit of 4x Ghalta shoal version over the 4 wurms for *****s and giggles. Spoilers: don't bother. Legendary is great and all, but no follow up threat is as bad as it sounds in theory.Posted in: Combo -
Jan 22, 20181
lrmo posted a message on Infinite Combo Reference (Old Thread)Updated, but missing new Polyraptor combos. Apparently there is a 300,000 character limit on posts and the infinite combo list has reached it.Posted in: Modern Archives
I'll start working on editing the code to be in two posts and create a new topic once it is complete. -
Jan 2, 20181
FoodChainGoblins posted a message on Grishoalbrand / Griselbrand ReanimatorPosted in: ComboQuote from HiImDustin »Sounds like a money making opp for Finalnub O_O
I agree. He's the first Streamer I'd donate some money to.
-
Dec 21, 2017
1
finalnub posted a message on Grishoalbrand / Griselbrand Reanimatorthose are some very good points, thanks! There's merits to attacking with just the wurms and hoping they blow their paths on the tokens. I was actually strongly considering passing here to have more looks at lands. My primary worries were 1) the GQ gaining them life and 2) if I swing with everything, theoretically with 2 paths I just die to the backswing with Voice token and a pumped up tracker. You said that 2 paths is something we can't beat, but we can actually theoretically beat 2 paths if we load up for enough lands for borborygmos (that's why your suggestion on waiting to hug next turn has merits. that sees 4 cards).Posted in: Combo
I think not attacking is not optimal though. Think we need to make them have 2 paths. If he only has 1 path, rpesenting lethal and making him sacrifice resources to live is a real thing (he could theoretically tap his painlands to make his tracker a 7/6 and survive a wurm too. Any canopies/GQs tapped helps our Borborygmos plan. So I think the plan actually should be to attack with 3 wurms and reevaluate for what he does, with the base case plan being looting into borborygmos for a kill if he's presenting lethal next turn, or wait to Hug it out next turn for a borb kill (hopefully he has used all his paths at this point).
As played, I Looted pre-combat, saw no lands, and Reanimated Borb for the kill. He had 2 paths and I lost
-
Dec 3, 2017
1
finalnub posted a message on Grishoalbrand / Griselbrand ReanimatorGood answers! My considerations during the games:Posted in: Combo
1. Kathal, you have good points about the downside scenarios in going for it. My main concerns were the resource constraints (I noted that I had bottomed a shoal, and plus we do not get to gain 7 by attacking/blocking). That the deck is divisible by 7 is not nearly as big here, because we know the very last card is a Shoal, though if we are unfortunate enough to have key resource constraints in the other 6 cards (fast mana or both Borbys), then it will matter.
Then you have to think about the decision tree branch that you are currently facing. We can't assume the opponent misclicks his relic. Let's call his clock a 5 turn clock. By then, we'll need 5 mana (potentially ruined by arbiter/GQ shenanigans, or thalia, which we can reasonably expect from this sort of an archetype) to breach. And even if you get there, Wurm may be an invalid win condition (path invalidates it. Pacts won't help if we can't one shot them). If the Wurm is not a valid win con, we'll then need to draw griselbrand. We pretty much need to draw ~4 specific cards in ~7 draws (counting looting).
With that said, I thought that it'd be a higher percentage play (although still not great) to trust in the Church of Griselbrand
2. This is actually not as interesting as I thought. I thought I could get reliced (tap ability) out if Griselbrand is the single card in the graveyard (discard is a cost), but you can just vengeance in response. You are cold to a SSG+relic activation regardless (Breach Titan lists play SSGs). It was pretty fun in that the only way we could feasibly win this game was if he indeed played a creature like this.
WRT the decision to ritual or not, we must weigh having a startup R or save the ritual for splicing action. Former matters if we draw the other ritual but don't draw enough SSGs, while the latter is relevant if you draw two ssgs or more. Given that we have 4 SSGs and 1 rit left, I think the best move is to hold the ritual to splice and reduce the # of SSGs that we need to hit.
What happened: I pacted the relic and ritual->axe->vengeance. Neither opponent got to untap. - To post a comment, please login or register a new account.
1
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Polluted Delta
3 Breeding Pool
2 Watery Grave
2 Hinterland Harbor
1 Flooded Grove
1 Drowned Catacomb
4 Island
1 Forest
1 Swamp
2 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Field of Ruin
//Creatures
3 Snapcaster Mage
//Removal
2 Fatal Push
1 Echoing Decay
1 Abrupt Decay
1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Spell Snare
1 Logic Knot
4 Remand
4 Cryptic Command
//Utility
4 Opt
4 Growth Spiral
1 Pulse of Murasa
1 Hieroglyphic Illumination
3 Wilderness Reclamation
3 Mystical Teachings
1 Blue Sun's Zenith
1 Nexus of Fate
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Fatal Push
1 Devour Flesh
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Consume the Meek
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Dispel
1 Life goes On
1 Crypt Incursion
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Shadow of Doubt
1 Nimble Obstructionist
1 Vendilion Clique
Most noteably I cut a land and added a Opt (to compensate) since I had a serious flooding problem so far. Not exactly sure if Polluted Delta is the correct cut or if I should go for the Field instead. Needs more testing (liked the Field so far).
Otherwise relatively "stock" list to say it this way. I kinda want to squeeze either the Crypt Incursion or the Surgical MD, since there are a lot of match-ups where I would want it. Than again Consume the Meek has been pretty bonkers so far too, so I really need to figure things out on what silverbullet I exactly want in the MD. Btw. I would play the Consume above the third Push MD, since they fulfil a similar role.
Greetings,
Kathal
PS: And the deck is so much fun
2
There was a short time of this, after the Eldrazie ban (Abzan vs Melira CoCo vs Midrange Eldrazie vs Bant CoCo with some sprinkels of Burn and Affinity) and people called it boring.
Than again, been a while since than.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
Second Sunrise got banned because of that (cause it had no loop to execute and was very tight in the combo turns and it took a lot of iterations to kill (boiled down to drawing the deck basically)).
Furthermore, in comparison to Ad Nauseam, every combo is slower to execute
You would be surprised. A lot of the "feedback" we have on the different platforms (be it here, Reddit, Twitter, Twitch, SCG, CFB,...) suffer under the echo-champer syndrom, where you only have only "one" repeating aspect brought forth. For example, look at Hooglands stream, prime example for this (especially how he handles it too, cause he basically bans anyone who has a different opinion than him).
I worked as balancer/designer for a project for roughly 2 years, finding out, what informations are valid/useful, where to access them, what is an echo-champer, and especially: How does the majority of the player base feel about it are all things, which is freaking hard. So the notion of "They would be **** stupid to not read free feedback on their products" is easy said, but the actually execution is painfully hard.
That is why a lot of game balancers are trusting more "verified" sources (like internal testing team, selected pros, data,...) than something like this thread.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
UW Miracles and Junk Nic Fit want to have a word with you. Only Maverick, Death and Taxes and Stoneblade play SFM.
Regarding the ban: Somewhat surprised about the KCI ban, expected something like Trawler instead. That that card was not even in consideration was also surprising. Otherwise, nice "in-depth" article to say it this way.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
You can read most stuff up in there.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
I do not want to delve to much into this discussion (cause it doesn't belong in here), but as stupid as it may sound, the only reason Eldrazies is a decent deck is because of turn 1 Chalice potential. Otherwise it has real problems in that format.
(and I hated those results, cause they are garbage and do not represent the "format" at all. It would be the same, if you would have suddenly 5 Kiki Twin decks in the top 8 in Modern...)
Some interesting things, sadly he didn't add the most important one: What was the average MVP of the recorded decks? THAT would be super interesting, since you already have a relative decent data set.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
Looking at the bans, Twin was the first and only one which got banned with this thought in mind (in addition to the other criteria). BBE was a try to get DRS Jund down, but keep things like BG, BUG and other fringe decks (Elves e.g.) alive. Didn't work out in the end, ate the ban afterwards. Summer Bloom violated the Turn 4 rule (in combination with the relevant metagame share), Eye of Ugin was Eye of Ugin. Pod, TC and DTT got explained really well in that update (hint: Angel Pod was broken), Second Sunrise got axed cause of time, Seething Song cause of Mancer and PiF, and that's basically it.
So no, the notion of "banning the best deck each year for power level/PT reason" is wrong, close to all of them were justified.
Also, the notion of "Twin did that for 4+ years and it had never been a problem before", Pod did the same thing and still ate a ban in the end. Decks improve usually over time so there might be a tipping point at some point and which makes the deck break one of the metrics used for banning reason.
Honestly? I do not like that list at all. Elektrolyze is hot garbage nowadays (only somewhat decent vs Humans, that's it) and the SB looks REALLY wonky, cause Blood Moon does close to nothing, no graveyard hate at all (1 of Relic, good luck finding it...), artefact hate is also quite spare (you only have 2 Abrades, which will not be enough vs Scaled Affinity/KCI/Lantern/Grindfather/..., especially without any form of other cheap interaction but Remand).
If I would need to play Twin in that shell, I wouldn't play it, cause it is just bad.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
"Degenerate" is relative. The "format" is a trap for everyone, who doesn't spend a lot of time with it, assuming things like Hypergenesis, Eldrazies or Storm are THE decks to beat, in the end those are solid decks (but Genesis which just sucks), the real deal are the decks, which abuse the true broken cards, Top (+ Counterbalance, Terminus and co), Depths (both as the control as the all-in version), Chrome Mox + Mox Opal + Artefact lands (turn 1 Bridge, Chalice on 2, Thopter Sword, Whir,...), Clamp (Young Pyro, Elves, "traditional" affinity), DRS (shocking, BGx Midrange is quite good in NBL) and Dredge (Dread Return + full Dredgers can result into a turn 2 kill, especially with the new toys the deck gained over the last few years).
Sure, not many people are playing it and sure, nobody really "broke" it yet, but especially the SCG one from last year is VERY misleading on how the format usually plays out.
Just some nitpicking, Eldrazi isn't even that good of an deck in NBL, Depths, Tezzerator, UW Counter Top and UR Clamp are all way better (and now also Dredge). Who cares if you can cast a Smasher on turn 3 when you need to deal with stuff like Bridge, a 20/20, Terminus or a boatload of Pyro Tokens.
Greetings,
Kathal
1
NBL Modern is more Vintage than Legacy (let alone Standard). Sure, when everybody does broken things, "nothing" is broken (screwed perception), but knowing how the Modern playbase is, doing something like this would be the dumbest thing wizard could do, heck, even banning 6+ cards is a better move for the format than unbanning everything.
Greetings,
Kathal
PS: Though, I would love to play Tezzerator
1
Regarding Jund, come on. The BBE version (aka 2018) is worse than the BBE less version, cause BBE is a bad card (hint: there is a reason why The Rock has consistently better results than Jund). Furthermore, the metagame evolved a lot since back than. Keep in mind that Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells were THE top end cards back than, cause they were just awesome in that metagame (minus Twin ofc). Nowadays they are hot garbage (but some very specific decks). So not only did Jund get better, but so did the other contenders. The relative power level of Jund went down however (cause the power of Jund didn't rise in the same fashion as the other decks did).
Furthermore, do not mix Jund Shadow (or even Grixis Shadow) with traditional Jund, those two are very different decks, although they look somewhat similar (huge beatsticks, discard and removal coupled with some sprinkles of card advantage)
Do not forget, that a URb Version would be (in the current metagame) way better than straight UR. The appeal of UR was mainly Blood Moon and the mana base, Blood Moon is irrelevant, the drawback of the mana base is real, however, the gains form the black splash are huge. Push, Cast Down, K-Command, Cut or Dismember are fixing the problem UR had, killing annoying big creatures for a cheap cost (no Harvest Pyre or double Bolt). Sure, straight UR has always and maybe will always suck against a Tempo style deck due to the problem of "garbage" removal of the UR Twin side. Hence, I can fully understand and agree your notion regarding the UR match-up vs those decks. However, the URb lists (not going for Tasigur btw which was imo even back in the days the wrong call) had a quite reasonable match-up in comparison, not good, nor even, but reasonable (45-55 or something along this line vs the high 30ish for the UR version).
The SFM notion stems from a time where the Jeskai version saw a "lot" of play (talking about 2-3% metagame share here) where SFM would be a natural fit (as in 2 off), especially in a meta it used to be, where the Aggro decks were Burn, Meerfolk, Elves and Naya CoCo. The "traditional" UR version would never want to play SFM, it clogs the deck way to much.
Also, SFM could find its place in a Control shell, just not the current version of Terminus to say it this way. In the older tap-out version it would have been golden, dunno how good it is nowadays though.
Comparing Twin with KCI is like comparing Amulet Bloom with Eldrazie, two different decks, two different time frames, two different data set. However, both decks got a ban of some sort.
Greetings,
Kathal