My impression from the people who are disappointed with the set is different from yours though. I think people are complaining that buying a low number of boosters is much more risky than in regular sets, which you point out in the end:
This means that for people not to lose when buying masters 25 they have to cash out on a box (or something close to that), which is already a high entry barrier for what is supposed to be a celebration set.Buying individual packs is much more of a gamble, given the higher price, but booster boxes will pay out their expected value.
I don't know, just leaves a bad taste in your mouth knowing that WoTC is basically forcing you to spend a lot of money for you to get a decent return on your investment. Not to mention that I'm a bit skeptical about the value retention capacity of many cards from the mythic and rare list after the market gets flooded with more copies. Anyway, I think the conclusion is that if you have the money to buy a box and wants to, there is no harm in doing that, but don't try to gamble on individual packs.
People who claim that stoneforge mystic is going to fix whatever they think is wrong with modern are, in my view, 100% wrong and their expectations are way too high. I think what people really want is a meta where control and midrange decks are mostly viable in high-level competitive play, which is simply not gonna happen. There are simply too many angles of attack that the linear decks are coming from for the control decks to be able to handle them. Counterspells like daze and force spike are also not gonna help. I think people ignore that humans play cavern of souls and hollow one play cards that recurr from the graveyard. Counterspells are not particularly effective against those decks.
The only real good suggestion I saw here to make control decks more viables is printing more modal spells with better modes in them. Like, izzet charm is good, but it is not there yet. Abrade seems pretty solid, especially in the current meta, and people should play it more. The issue with modal spells is that they're usually overcosted for the effects to compensate for their versatility, so realistically it is hard to imagine that wizards is going to start printing powerful AND cheap modal spells to help the control decks.
Decks like Hollow One, despite being scary to some people, I believe can be more effective dealt with. And even if they can't, you can ban one of their namesake cards (like Hollow One itself) and the deck crumbles. I do not believe that is the case for humans. You would need multiple bannings, and even then you would need to watch out for future printings. No clue how this will be sorted out.
4 Death's shadow - 8 points
3 Gurmag Angler - 6 points
4 Snapcaster Mage - 8 points
4 Street Wraiths - 4 points
1 Tasigur, the golden Fang - 2 points
4 Fatal Push - 4 points
4 Opt - 0 points
3 Stubborn denial - 3 points
4 Thought Scour - 4 points (can target opponent's library)
4 Thoughtseize - 4 points
1 Temur Battle Rage - 0 points
1 Terminate - 1 point
2 Dismember - 2 points
2 Kholagan's command - 4 points
total score - 50 points
4 Dark Confidant - 8 points
4 Tarmogoyf - 8 points
3 Scavenging Ooze - 9 points
4 Liliana of the Veil - 8 points (discard + cares about the board)
4 Bloodbraid Elf - 8 points (but just because creatures score 2)
2 Thoughtseize - 2 points
4 Inquisition of Kozilek - 4 points
3 Lighting bolt - 6 points
1 Abrupt Decay - 1 point
2 Fatal push - 2 points
2 Maelstrom pulse - 2 points
1 Terminate - 1 point
2 Kholaghan's command - 4 points
2 Raging ravine - 4 points
2 Treetop village - 4 points
total score - 75 points
By that you still see that Jund is a more interactive deck than shadow, by a 50% margin, which is quite significant. Just for the sake of it, I will also do storm and bogles.
4 Baral, Chief of Compliance - 8 points
2 Goblin Electromancer - 4 points
1 Lightning Bolt - 2 points
1 Noxious Revival - 0 points
2 Opt - 0 points
1 Repeal - 1 point
4 Serum Visions - 0 points
4 Sleight of Hand - 0 points
4 Desperate Ritual - 0 points
3 Grapeshot - 6 points
4 Manamorphose - 0 points
4 Pyretic Ritual - 0 points
3 Remand - 3 points
4 Gifts Ungiven - 0 points
2 Past in Flames - 0 points
Total score - 22 points
1 Dryad Arbor - 1 point
4 Gladecover Scout - 8 points
4 Slippery Bogle - 8 points
4 Kor Spiritdancer - 8 points
2 Path to Exile - 2 points
4 Ethereal Armor - 4 points (I know this seems bad, but auras can also target opposing creatures)
2 Gryff's Boon - 2 points
2 Hyena Umbra -2 points
4 Rancor - 4 points
4 Spider Umbra - 4 points
4 Daybreak Coronet - 4 points
2 Spirit Mantle - 2 points
4 Leyline of Sanctity - zero points
Total score - 47 points.
Curiously enough, bogles got basically the same amount as Death's Shadow. Some might say this is a problem for the scoring system. If you discount the auras in bogles (which realistically they wouldn't target another creature, if only in very corner cases), you would have they score 25, same as storm. I have problems with contextual scoring, but I think that you could, objectively, estimate how a card is used contextually. It just takes a lot of effort. You could say something like 'if 95% of the time a card is used in a particular way, then you can say the card is just used like that'. For instance, if Street Wraiths are cycled 95% of the time or more, you could say they score zero points, instead of 8. The issue is how to quantify that... you would need a good number of matchups.
First I will define interaction as 'anything that can affect, positively or negatively, globally or specifically, one of the opponent's zones'. The opponent's zones are: his battlefield, his graveyard, his library, his hand, himself and 'his stack'. I know the stack is the same for both players, but by 'his stack' I mean 'effects or spells controlled by the opponent that are on the stack'. For each zone that a card is able to interact with, it scores one point.
Before I can explain the rest of the scoring system, let me clarify two things in the definition:
1) 'Positively or Negatively' incorporates simmetrical group hug cards. Rites of Flourishing forces the opponent to draw an extra card, so it scores 1 interaction point. Upwelling, however, doesn't interact with any of the zones previously mentioned, therefore it doesn't score points. Negative effects incorporate things like Bolt, Push, etc.
2) 'Globally or Specifically' incorporates global effects that hit both players zones, like Wrath of God and Night of Soul's Betrayal. Specifically means just the opponent's zones, like inquisition of kozilek.
Now, to score points, besides counting the amount of zones a card interacts, you also have to count the two 'moments' where it is able to interact. The two moments are:
1) When a card is played
2) After the card is played
So, if a card, when played, can interact with one of the opponent's zones, it scores 1 point. Examples of this would be counterspell (works when played, interacts with opponent's stack), or hymn to tourach (works when played, interacts with opponent's hand).
If a card can interact with one or more of the opponent's zones after being played, it gets points accordinly. Goblin Guide counts 2, because it can interact with the opp's battlefield and with the opponent himself. Deathrite Shaman scores 3, because it can interact with the opp's battlefield, the opp's graveyard and the opponent himself. Sphinx's Tutelage scores 1, because it can interact with the opponent's library. Notice that for you to score points, it doesn't matter if a condition needs to be fulfilled, as is the case for tutelage. The only thing that matters is your potential to interact.
There are issues with scoring like that, for instance Grim Lavamancer is no different than a vanilla creature. It scores 2, interacting with the battlefield and the opponent himself, even though someone would instinctively claim that lavamancer is more interactive than, say, monastery swiftspear. However, no system of classification is perfect. Similarly, Snapcaster Mage scores 2, because even though it has a effect when it is played, such effect interacts only with YOUR zone (your graveyard). Meanwhile Dire Fleet Daredevil would score 3.
Examples of cards that interact both when they're played and when they're on board are, for instance, Mystic Snake. Snake scores 3 (1 for the stack when it is played, and 2 for interacting with battlefield and opponent after it is played). Venser, Shaper Savant scores 4 (2 for interacting with the stack and battlefield when it is played, and 2 for interacting with battlefield and opponent after it is played).
There are maybe some hiccups in such system where an extraction effect like surgical extraction is gonna score 3 because it interacts with graveyard, hand and library, but that is the nature of the beast. I think this system can better encapsulate what people mean by 'interaction', but I'm open to modifications, criticism or whatever else it might come.
The idea, after explained, is simple. You just need to ask yourself this:
1) Once this card is played, with how many of the opponent's zones does it interact with? (1 point for each zone)
2) After this card is played, with how many of the opponent's zones does it interact with? (1 point for each zone)
And that's it. What do you guys think? Complex? Not better than the other proposed system? Something else?
EDIT: just quick observations - cards likes Nevermore and Ensnaring Bridge score 1 (interact with the opponent directly and his battlefield, respectively, after they're played). Creatures with defender score 1, because they can only interact with the battlefield. That is the gist of the idea.
It is frustrating though, to spend the last amount of posts making a case for a point for someone in the very next breath to disqualify it by saying that it would just 'be better' without going deeper on why they think that is the case.
I obviously agree with some of your picks and disagree with others. I don't understand how people are so afraid of DRS, but think that DTT is maybe ok. Really puzzling to me. Deathrite is a much more powerful card in legacy than it is in modern, and it is not particularly close - in my opinion. Legacy is a format where mana efficiency is paramount, and deathrite gives such efficiency to grixis colors, which usually had to 2 for one themselves with fow or get a turn behind with daze to achieve it. I don't understand people complaining that Hollow One is offensive and saying that Deathrite shouldn't be unbanned. Deathrite is precisely the type of card that helps keeping such strategies in check. That said, it is a very very fair card, so I don't think it would break anything by coming back.
People saying that it is just the superior deck have no evidence to back it up, simply put. Not only did Tron gain new tools in Ugin/Ulamog, but cloudpost lost its main inevitability engine in Eye of Ugin. Playtest both decks in legacy as means of comparison and you will see which one fairs better.
Yes, if you're counting JUST on topdecks, in the situation I described above, 12-post has more shots because vesuvas are live draws (6 lands for 12-post (9 if you wanna consider glimmerposts) vs 3 for tron). That said, did you factor in all the redundancy that tron has access to so they can find the remaining tron piece? Is 12-post going to play the same amount of redundancy? If so, I would circle back to the problem of having lands come into play tapped making cloudpost decks considerably slower overall. The important thing to note is that 12-post usually played a primeval titan package, not stirrings. In which case the scenario of having more cloudposts early is unrealistic, and so is their chances of recovering from LD being greater than tron.
Imagine that you have 2 cloudposts and 1 glimmerpost, and compare that to having 3 tron lands. In both cases the players have access to 7 mana. You shoot down one tron piece, the tron player goes back to 2 mana, you shoot down one post, the post player goes back to 3. In both cases for the particular decks, 2 and 3 are not that different. Now, if the post players finds another post, he goes back to 5, while the tron player goes back to 7. That is in the scenario where, of course, you manage to have multiple copies of cloudposts, with your opponent only disrupting you after that.
Tron is stronger against disruption, at least in the current configuration vs 12-post primeval titan configuration. It gets even worse when you consider that 12-post had inevitability due to Eye of Ugin fetched with prime-time, but now that card is banned in modern. I'm not sure what 12-post configuration people have in mind that would be as good, strong and resilient as tron, but I would certainly be happy to see it being played.
Tron is more redundant and more resilient to disruption, I don't know from where people get that 12-post is better against disruption than tron. Maybe when sensei's top was legal in legacy 12-post was more of a real deck, now it is a shell of its former self. In any case, in modern the scenario just wouldn't be different. I agree that in the absolute nut-draw of 12 post they might reach 13 mana by turn 4, but that is simpy not necessary to win the game. I agree that there are other more obvious unbans at the eyes of Wizards, but I'm saying post strategies are not better than tron strategies, and people who doubt me can playtest with both decks and see their win %.
Have they read Mishra's Workshop??? Talk about a card that generates large swings in a game. This land is absolutely-totally-completely insane. It is funny that they do that in the same breath that they banned ancient tomb. This format man, Wizards really can't manage it properly.
Cloudpost is inherently worse than tron for these two reasons - you need at least one copy of a specific land EARLY in the game for your deck to start humming, while tron doesn't care about the order in which it draws the tron pieces, and most of your posts come into play tapped, putting you behind the curve all the time. Yes, yes, after you achieve your goal of assembling posts, you have insane amounts of mana. So what? You don't need insane amounts of mana to win, the amount that tron generates (which is 'a lot') is just fine. No need to cast Emrakuls if Karns and Ulamogs will do the job.
Now, let's assume the deck plays with primeval titans, as you stated. How is that different or better than Titan Shift? Titan shift can drop prime-times turn 4 and win on the way back or at least get a land that makes every mountain of theirs become lightning bolt. For cloudpost to drop titan turn 4 they need to go cloudpost -> vesuva/cloudpost -> green source -> green source (or something to filter for the green sources, which would still make them cast the titan turn 3 in a veeery veeery good hand). So, their best case scenario is not even that great, and I assure you they will stumble and fumble much more than that.
Finally, what in cloudpost enables turn 2 TKS? Seriously, in what combination of land drops that don't involve two eldrazi temples is cloudpost going to enable turn 2 TKS? If you drop a cloudpost, then another, you have 4 mana, 2 of which is coming into play tapped, so you DON'T have turn 2 TKS. You can try and think of any combination, there is none besides the already existing eldrazi temple -> eldrazi temple that achieves that. The only real valid concern about cloudpost is if it will generate a better amulet of vigor deck, but we simply have no way to know that until we unban the card.
EDIT: the only way it would achieve turn 2 TKS is with SSG help, which you did not mention. You would need to go cloudpost -> glimmerpost + SSG. With the lands alone, you can't do it.
Birthing Pod (I don't agree with this ban, and I actually think CoCo and Pod decks pull green towards different directions, which means that pod could open up new strategies and amplify diversity. I do think there is an argument that pod could end up being just another unfair deck, but I don't see it that way).
Cloudpost (I don't understand why this card is banned, period. Tron is better, and it is legal)
Dark Depths (this - together with another unban that I will comment on soon - can create a prototype for a lands archetype in modern, while also generating turbo depths style decks)
Deathrite Shaman (another quintessencial card for fair midrange strategies - it is unfatomable to me why this card is banned in modern. It covers bases that GBx strategies need to be covering and helps those decks against unfair strategies on game 1)
Green Sun's Zenith (this card is fine in my view, can create some cool toolbox archetypes. I think it would only need to be rebanned if it created some sort of incredibly fast and consistent creature combo deck, which is not impossible, but in my mind also not that likely)
Ponder and Preordain (these cards should never be banned in any format that wants fair decks to thrive. Yes, it makes storm stronger, and other blue-based combo decks, but 1) there aren't that many good blue-based combo decks besides storm and 2) storm is about to receive more hate from another hate card in damping sphere)
Punishing Fire (quintessencial for any lands prototype, this card is not too strong for modern. 2 mana for a shock is DEFINITELY below modern power level, and you won't always have grove to recurr it. Even if you do, plenty of aggro decks can already overpower this. This would be another tool for fair decks to look into)
Splinter Twin (I'm willing to see this back in modern, if anything to have a different strategy coming back to the fold)
Stoneforge Mystic (As others have stated, a perfectly balanced card for modern power level)
Umezawa's Jitte (This is a powerful card, but I really don't know why it is banned. This card basically benefits midrange strategies, that are in need of some help, so I think it is perfectly fine, not to mention that artifact hate in modern is already prevalent to counterbalance this card's power level)
Everything else I think it makes the format too degenerate (GGT, Dread Return, Rite of Flame, Eye of Ugin, etc.) or too unpleasant to play against (sensei's divining top, mental misstep, gitaxian probe, treasure cruise, DTT, etc.). I don't think the delve blue spells should return to the format. These cards are way too powerful in formats with fetchlands, and those who think DTT is not that great of a offender as TC think that only because TC is the best delve spell and they both coexisted in modern. In legacy, TC was banned first, DTT remained and quickly created a tier 1 strategy in monoblue omnitell. These spells are just mistakes, and should never have been designed. They simply can't see play in formats where fetchlands exist.