The math regarding Cryptic Command and U sources eludes me. Here, it states in order to have a 90% cast success rate in relation to U count, one needs 22 sources of U for a T4 requirement of UUU.
Thismultivariate hypergeometric distribution calculator, the math of such explained here, deems that 4 Cryptic Commands require 24 sources of U for a T4 Cryptic Command. Which is quite surprising, as typically, for high card counts the calculated source count for a 90% success rate is quite similar between the Frank Analysis tables and the multivariate hypergeometic distribution tables, but there's a difference of two here.
Even more confusing, I've seen competitive lists from professional esteemed players, playing anywhere between 16-22 U counts when running 4 Cryptics. Granted, the 16 U list was running 4 Aether Vials alongside Eternal Witness(softlock with cryptics), but it's apparently common for even Jeskai control to run 19 U for 4 Cryptics.
I don't understand why this is the case, and I'd like to generate a discussion on it.
Does card-draw from cards like Remand, slightly reduce at all the need for U counts? I see that drawing cards increases our likely hood of drawing a U source, but it also increases our likelihood of drawing a Cryptic, so I'm unsure about this.
I understand that, we won't have 4 lands by T4 90% of the time, anyway. Do we need less coloured sources to support the high-end part of our curve? I have been thinking the opposite, that in order to have our higher end of our curve not get clogged in our hand and be worthwhile to play, we must be able to consisently cast it on time.
Can it simply be that the lists that play 4 Cryptic Commands, gain enough value by such, and are slow enough, that they're okay with not playing it consistently on T4? That the trade off for playing more U sources, or less Cryptics, simply isn't worth it, for whatever reason.
I wouldn't know how you'd be able to even fit in something like that when running the complete shoal package. What would you cut, Spell Queller? Mausoleum Wanderer? Surely you wouldn't be able to cut much of the enchantment package if that's what you wish to run. Remand? A colourless land? The deck is super tight.
I tried the list and quite dislike it. Not sure what Noble and Ninja and are doing in it. Reach Through Mists isn't worthwhile, clutters up the deck too much and demands a build with more enchantments than desired.
I'm playing a deck that needs to hit that 2nd land quite consistently. Any lands past 4 turn into more or less dead, weak draws. If I'm playing 4 Serum Visions and no other mana producing things, how many lands should I be running?
Some math:
If I'm running 21 lands, then the deck consists of 35% lands (21/60), meaning 65% of the deck are non-lands.
Serum Visions digs 3 deep. To work out the probability of Serum Visions missing a land: 0.65*0.65*0.65=0.275.
Therefore, Serum Visions equates to 0.725 of a land when running 21 lands. 4 Serum Visions is approximately equivalent to 3 lands. So when running 21 lands with 4 Serum Visions, one is almost playing essentially 24 lands.
This is a rather useful tool for this sort of thing:
Using a population of 59, number of successes in population of 24, sample size of 8 and number of successes of 2, it tells me that one will hit 2 or greater 92% of the time. 23 lands is 90%.
I quickly did the math and found when running 20 lands, Serum Visions equates to 0.7 of a land, compared to 0.75.
Now I'm curious, adding that extra land gives one about an extra 2% chance of hitting that 2nd land on time, but what sort of impact will it have on flooding? This is more difficult to calculate, but I can do a rough calculation:
Population: 59
Number of successes: 24
Sample size: 10 (T4 on the play without drawing)
Number of successes: 4
4 or greater equates to a 65% chance of occurring, pretty friggin huge. 23 lands instead equates to a 60% chance of occuring.
So when comparing 23 lands to 24, the extra land drop causes one to hit the 2nd land 2% more often, and also causes one to flood 5% more often. I also play Remands in the deck, which will make this later effect worse.
So because of this, could I reason that 20 lands, with 4 serum visions, is where I want to be?
Remand can be quite effective in control decks that have some sort of gameplan to establish. Tallowisp strikes me as a tempo deck anyway, one only needs to buy time to draw tallowisp/geist/whatever piece required, which Remand does beautifully.
Could be worth testing in a meta that is heavy on control/ramp, and light on bolts (making shining shoal gameplan nonworthwhile as a mainboard stragtegy)I guess. I play Familiar's Ruse decks and I feel those etb triggers are not worthwhile, strikes me as simply too flimsy, but I suppose there's some merit.
I'm pretty sure Mana Leak would be stronger than Familiar's Ruse, assuming one has a fast enough clock and hasn't crammed Paths.
Why aren't you a fan of Remand here? The card strikes me as glue for the deck, the draw component of it is critical.
Familiar's Ruse doesn't seem to fit here, as we have a lack of etb triggers. Getting extra triggers off Tallowisp wouldn't make it worthwhile. There's no real space for it in the main, and Negate is better for the side. It just doesn't work in this deck, we don't need hard-counters as much due to how aggressive we can be.
Familiar's Ruse doesn't seem to fit here, as we have a lack of etb triggers. Getting extra triggers off Tallowisp wouldn't make it worthwhile. There's no real space for it in the main, and Negate is better for the side. It just doesn't work in this deck, we don't need hard-counters as much due to how aggressive we can be.
I believe if one is taking a more aggro or control route that nonetheless, the deck should have some flexibility to change roles, and not be exclusively one or the other.
I believe the thing that abuses Tallowisp to the highest degree is the Shoals. The best modern shoals is disrupting shoal, and shining shoal; the black one is more limited and simply less powerful, which makes mediocre cards like Thief of Hope, none worthwhile.
I originally started brewing Tallowisp as a control deck, and messed with black. Ended up finding it none worthwhile, it offers a few cards that are questionable, even without factoring in having to splash for them. Pillory of the Sleepless is simply weaker than Prison Term, something that is rather borderline to include to begin with, and doesn't need a splash!
I haven't been testing/playing much at all, but I figure I'll share what I've got. I feel as if building it this way is most effective, though I built it with my local metagame in mind; that is, lots of aggro, lots of bolts.
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Serum Visions
1 Curiosity
3 Rattlechains
3 Remand
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Shining Shoal
4 Tallowisp
1 Crystallization
1 Temporal Isolation
4 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Spell Queller
3 Steel of the Godhead
1 Containment Membrane
1 Prison Term
4 Mausoleum because it triggers Tallowisp, and protects him, buys time, beats down and is good for tempo; does everything this deck wants. 4 Serum Visions, because this deck has an issue with consistency, and has lots of poor draws; Serum Visions helps with this. 1 Curiosity, for a 1Ucmc to tutor for to exile with Disrupting Shoal, it's also an effective value tutor target. It can do things like prevent an opposing tarmogofy for beating down, due to enabling Tallowisp to draw a card, and just generally drawing cards is very effective for this deck, like it is for most.
3 Rattlechains, because it's not something I want to draw in multiples necessary, it's more of a support card, getting a hand full of Rattlechains is one way to draw a weak, inconsistent hand. 3 Remand, because Remand is a great way use mana/a card when one's hand is missing a piece, the drawing card part of it is critical, and buying time with it is often important at every stage of the game. I want 4, but can't easily fit it. Different metagames would call for the playset, it's a very important card for the deck, way more than the weak Mana Leak.
4 Disrupting Shoal, because it's what makes the deck broken. 3 Shining Shoal for the same reason. If I was in a meta with less bolts flinging around everywhere, I'd consider cutting down the Shining Shoal count, moving some to the side. This card makes burn particularly amusing. It can do a lot of amazing things, and has great synergy with Tallowisp and Geist and Spell Queller. Alongside Disrupting Shoal, it allows me to make powerful plays by dropping Tallowisp on T2, and being able to respond to anything my opponent does. Redirecting bolt from Tallowisp to Goblin Guide T2 is very strong. It can also do things like redirect anger of the gods away from geist, tap it for six against collonade to redirect damage to wherever, swing with geist, redirect blocking damage against geist to wherever. Very powerful, glue of the deck.
1 Crystallization. 2cmc U card, effective pasficism. Sometimes in sticky situations, I'll cast another enchantment on target creature to exile it. Temporal Isolation, because flash on this is great. Allows me to flash in Rattlechains or whatever, to tutor for it and use it on my opponent's turn.
4 Geist, crucial piece to the deck. Sticking him with a Steel of the Godhead is often gg. Very powerful card, often times the game is over 2 turns after he lands. Spell Queller is effective with the general gameplan, and has good sysnergy with Steel of the Godhead, Disrupting Shoal, Shining Shoal, Rattlechains, Remand. Wouldn't want more than 2, it's not something I want in multiples often and want to draw asap, it's a support piece. It's very useful in being 3cmc white (redirect bolts with shining shoal) and blue for disrupting shoal, helps the shoal's consistency.
3 Steel of the Godhead. Can't go lower than 3, as the card is a crucial piece to the gameplan. Lower than 3 will get into awkward situations where one can't exile them as liberally, with fear of using all the Steels in the deck. 1 Containment Membrane, the card is surprisngly powerful, helps a lot with tempo. 1 prison Term, quite a strong effective card, my local meta has an emrakruel thing going on, which this is quite strong against. Shinining Shoal for 3, also deals with creature's activated abilities, effective card.
1 Angelic Destiny. Shining shoal for 4, also powerful to throw on any creature to turn into a strong beater.
Manabase, 14 U, 13 W. I believe 20 land is optimal, which leaves 3 colourless sources. I believe 1 Tectonic Edge is required, and 1 Mutavault; Mutavault is surprinsgly good here, we're often beating down for little bits of damage here and there, and it adds up and helps. Not sure what the 3rd colourless land should be. Eiganjo Castle is strong with Geist. Don't want more than 2 Halloweds as don't want to lose time in paying life for them, especially when Seachrome Coast works great as a dual. 2 plains to protect against my plains getting ghost quartered, 2 shocks to tutor, fetches because they're very powerful, standard stuff.
I haven't tested this for months and the sideboard I'm most unsure about. It's a tight list, which means more specific hate cards are better than more flexible sideboard cards. I also note that a transformation sideboard is very feasible, could side in Drogskol Captain and friends to turn into a midrange beats deck. This deck is fragile against certain things, it's particularly weak against hand hate and edicts, but also some other cards like Voice, which could benefit from transforming, just an idea at this point.
I'm not running Path main. I believe in certain meta games, it'd be best to run some number of them, but not with mine. It's too tight of a list and it doesn't have good synergy with the Shoals, 1cmc exclusively white cards don't go well.
Cards that I believe should go in the side:
Rest in Peace
Path to Exile (if not mainboarding)
Domestication (just couldn't fit it main, very useful 4cmc target for disrupting shoal, bring it in against decks that rely on the 4cmc slot, great against scapeshift. Also surprinsgly powerful card to use to simply steal creatures. Don't think it's quite strong enough for my main/meta, would squeeze it in if I was facing more decks with higher curve)
Oppressive Rays
Kataki, War Mage
I feel Shining Shoal is also more conditonal. Disrupting Shoal requires a high amount of U cards; if running the playset (which I believe is optimal), we can't afford to run many white cards.
I believe this deck is strongest in a meta that has lots of bolts, to redirect with Shining Shoal. It's actually the reason why I started brewing this, as my local meta has bolts everywhere; there's lots of red aggro, and red control. Shining Shoal does much for the deck; redirects bolt to an opposing creature, redirects goblin guide damage to goblin guide, redirects bolt from tallowisp to whatever, redirects anger of the gods damage against geist to whatever, redirects blocking damage against geist towards whatever. Shining Shoal demands a signifianct amount of 3cmc + W cards. I believe Angelic Destiny and 2-3 God of the Steelhand is optimal, and I believe one can fit in something like Pariah or Prison Term main, but squeezing in both probably won't work. I'm actually running 12 Plains, as I don't have a lot of W cards I need to play; 4 Tallowisp, 1 Crystallization and 1 Temporal of Isolation on T2. 12 W is not actually enough to consinstently support WW on T4, meaning running Angelic Destiny and Prison Term creates mana inconsistencies at 12 W. Maybe Pariah is the card for that slot? Sure is interesting.
This multivariate hypergeometric distribution calculator, the math of such explained here, deems that 4 Cryptic Commands require 24 sources of U for a T4 Cryptic Command. Which is quite surprising, as typically, for high card counts the calculated source count for a 90% success rate is quite similar between the Frank Analysis tables and the multivariate hypergeometic distribution tables, but there's a difference of two here.
Even more confusing, I've seen competitive lists from professional esteemed players, playing anywhere between 16-22 U counts when running 4 Cryptics. Granted, the 16 U list was running 4 Aether Vials alongside Eternal Witness(softlock with cryptics), but it's apparently common for even Jeskai control to run 19 U for 4 Cryptics.
I don't understand why this is the case, and I'd like to generate a discussion on it.
Does card-draw from cards like Remand, slightly reduce at all the need for U counts? I see that drawing cards increases our likely hood of drawing a U source, but it also increases our likelihood of drawing a Cryptic, so I'm unsure about this.
I understand that, we won't have 4 lands by T4 90% of the time, anyway. Do we need less coloured sources to support the high-end part of our curve? I have been thinking the opposite, that in order to have our higher end of our curve not get clogged in our hand and be worthwhile to play, we must be able to consisently cast it on time.
Can it simply be that the lists that play 4 Cryptic Commands, gain enough value by such, and are slow enough, that they're okay with not playing it consistently on T4? That the trade off for playing more U sources, or less Cryptics, simply isn't worth it, for whatever reason.
Some math:
If I'm running 21 lands, then the deck consists of 35% lands (21/60), meaning 65% of the deck are non-lands.
Serum Visions digs 3 deep. To work out the probability of Serum Visions missing a land: 0.65*0.65*0.65=0.275.
Therefore, Serum Visions equates to 0.725 of a land when running 21 lands. 4 Serum Visions is approximately equivalent to 3 lands. So when running 21 lands with 4 Serum Visions, one is almost playing essentially 24 lands.
This is a rather useful tool for this sort of thing:
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/hypergeometric.aspx
Using a population of 59, number of successes in population of 24, sample size of 8 and number of successes of 2, it tells me that one will hit 2 or greater 92% of the time. 23 lands is 90%.
I quickly did the math and found when running 20 lands, Serum Visions equates to 0.7 of a land, compared to 0.75.
Now I'm curious, adding that extra land gives one about an extra 2% chance of hitting that 2nd land on time, but what sort of impact will it have on flooding? This is more difficult to calculate, but I can do a rough calculation:
Population: 59
Number of successes: 24
Sample size: 10 (T4 on the play without drawing)
Number of successes: 4
4 or greater equates to a 65% chance of occurring, pretty friggin huge. 23 lands instead equates to a 60% chance of occuring.
So when comparing 23 lands to 24, the extra land drop causes one to hit the 2nd land 2% more often, and also causes one to flood 5% more often. I also play Remands in the deck, which will make this later effect worse.
So because of this, could I reason that 20 lands, with 4 serum visions, is where I want to be?
I'm pretty sure Mana Leak would be stronger than Familiar's Ruse, assuming one has a fast enough clock and hasn't crammed Paths.
Why aren't you a fan of Remand here? The card strikes me as glue for the deck, the draw component of it is critical.
I believe the thing that abuses Tallowisp to the highest degree is the Shoals. The best modern shoals is disrupting shoal, and shining shoal; the black one is more limited and simply less powerful, which makes mediocre cards like Thief of Hope, none worthwhile.
I originally started brewing Tallowisp as a control deck, and messed with black. Ended up finding it none worthwhile, it offers a few cards that are questionable, even without factoring in having to splash for them. Pillory of the Sleepless is simply weaker than Prison Term, something that is rather borderline to include to begin with, and doesn't need a splash!
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Serum Visions
1 Curiosity
3 Rattlechains
3 Remand
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Shining Shoal
4 Tallowisp
1 Crystallization
1 Temporal Isolation
4 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Spell Queller
3 Steel of the Godhead
1 Containment Membrane
1 Prison Term
1 Angelic Destiny
4 Flooded Strand
2 Plains
4 Island
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Eiganjo Castle
4 Seachrome Coast
2 Tectonic Edge
1 Mutavault
4 Mausoleum because it triggers Tallowisp, and protects him, buys time, beats down and is good for tempo; does everything this deck wants. 4 Serum Visions, because this deck has an issue with consistency, and has lots of poor draws; Serum Visions helps with this. 1 Curiosity, for a 1Ucmc to tutor for to exile with Disrupting Shoal, it's also an effective value tutor target. It can do things like prevent an opposing tarmogofy for beating down, due to enabling Tallowisp to draw a card, and just generally drawing cards is very effective for this deck, like it is for most.
3 Rattlechains, because it's not something I want to draw in multiples necessary, it's more of a support card, getting a hand full of Rattlechains is one way to draw a weak, inconsistent hand. 3 Remand, because Remand is a great way use mana/a card when one's hand is missing a piece, the drawing card part of it is critical, and buying time with it is often important at every stage of the game. I want 4, but can't easily fit it. Different metagames would call for the playset, it's a very important card for the deck, way more than the weak Mana Leak.
4 Disrupting Shoal, because it's what makes the deck broken. 3 Shining Shoal for the same reason. If I was in a meta with less bolts flinging around everywhere, I'd consider cutting down the Shining Shoal count, moving some to the side. This card makes burn particularly amusing. It can do a lot of amazing things, and has great synergy with Tallowisp and Geist and Spell Queller. Alongside Disrupting Shoal, it allows me to make powerful plays by dropping Tallowisp on T2, and being able to respond to anything my opponent does. Redirecting bolt from Tallowisp to Goblin Guide T2 is very strong. It can also do things like redirect anger of the gods away from geist, tap it for six against collonade to redirect damage to wherever, swing with geist, redirect blocking damage against geist to wherever. Very powerful, glue of the deck.
1 Crystallization. 2cmc U card, effective pasficism. Sometimes in sticky situations, I'll cast another enchantment on target creature to exile it. Temporal Isolation, because flash on this is great. Allows me to flash in Rattlechains or whatever, to tutor for it and use it on my opponent's turn.
4 Geist, crucial piece to the deck. Sticking him with a Steel of the Godhead is often gg. Very powerful card, often times the game is over 2 turns after he lands. Spell Queller is effective with the general gameplan, and has good sysnergy with Steel of the Godhead, Disrupting Shoal, Shining Shoal, Rattlechains, Remand. Wouldn't want more than 2, it's not something I want in multiples often and want to draw asap, it's a support piece. It's very useful in being 3cmc white (redirect bolts with shining shoal) and blue for disrupting shoal, helps the shoal's consistency.
3 Steel of the Godhead. Can't go lower than 3, as the card is a crucial piece to the gameplan. Lower than 3 will get into awkward situations where one can't exile them as liberally, with fear of using all the Steels in the deck. 1 Containment Membrane, the card is surprisngly powerful, helps a lot with tempo. 1 prison Term, quite a strong effective card, my local meta has an emrakruel thing going on, which this is quite strong against. Shinining Shoal for 3, also deals with creature's activated abilities, effective card.
1 Angelic Destiny. Shining shoal for 4, also powerful to throw on any creature to turn into a strong beater.
Manabase, 14 U, 13 W. I believe 20 land is optimal, which leaves 3 colourless sources. I believe 1 Tectonic Edge is required, and 1 Mutavault; Mutavault is surprinsgly good here, we're often beating down for little bits of damage here and there, and it adds up and helps. Not sure what the 3rd colourless land should be. Eiganjo Castle is strong with Geist. Don't want more than 2 Halloweds as don't want to lose time in paying life for them, especially when Seachrome Coast works great as a dual. 2 plains to protect against my plains getting ghost quartered, 2 shocks to tutor, fetches because they're very powerful, standard stuff.
I haven't tested this for months and the sideboard I'm most unsure about. It's a tight list, which means more specific hate cards are better than more flexible sideboard cards. I also note that a transformation sideboard is very feasible, could side in Drogskol Captain and friends to turn into a midrange beats deck. This deck is fragile against certain things, it's particularly weak against hand hate and edicts, but also some other cards like Voice, which could benefit from transforming, just an idea at this point.
I'm not running Path main. I believe in certain meta games, it'd be best to run some number of them, but not with mine. It's too tight of a list and it doesn't have good synergy with the Shoals, 1cmc exclusively white cards don't go well.
Cards that I believe should go in the side:
Rest in Peace
Path to Exile (if not mainboarding)
Domestication (just couldn't fit it main, very useful 4cmc target for disrupting shoal, bring it in against decks that rely on the 4cmc slot, great against scapeshift. Also surprinsgly powerful card to use to simply steal creatures. Don't think it's quite strong enough for my main/meta, would squeeze it in if I was facing more decks with higher curve)
Oppressive Rays
Kataki, War Mage
I believe this deck is strongest in a meta that has lots of bolts, to redirect with Shining Shoal. It's actually the reason why I started brewing this, as my local meta has bolts everywhere; there's lots of red aggro, and red control. Shining Shoal does much for the deck; redirects bolt to an opposing creature, redirects goblin guide damage to goblin guide, redirects bolt from tallowisp to whatever, redirects anger of the gods damage against geist to whatever, redirects blocking damage against geist towards whatever. Shining Shoal demands a signifianct amount of 3cmc + W cards. I believe Angelic Destiny and 2-3 God of the Steelhand is optimal, and I believe one can fit in something like Pariah or Prison Term main, but squeezing in both probably won't work. I'm actually running 12 Plains, as I don't have a lot of W cards I need to play; 4 Tallowisp, 1 Crystallization and 1 Temporal of Isolation on T2. 12 W is not actually enough to consinstently support WW on T4, meaning running Angelic Destiny and Prison Term creates mana inconsistencies at 12 W. Maybe Pariah is the card for that slot? Sure is interesting.
If you're running Selfless Spirit, does that mean you're not running both Shoals?