I agree that you should 100% play green. The only question is what color to pair it with to shore up the early game. I think there the answer is definitely red. You get 3 good/great 2-drops (Axelrod missed the Welder Automaton above), and a good early removal spell, which is everything the green is lacking. That deck seems very strong.
I find the reverse is true when I play blue...especially UR. UR was the weakest color pair, but it's rock solid in AER. As a result, it's common in that color pair to play very few cards from your Kaladesh pack. I had a recent draft where I went 3-0 with UR, and despite only playing 15 lands, I had a mere 5 cards from Kaladesh.
It is true that a number of AER cards are really only good if you're using their synergy elements.
You're seriously misevaluating Aether Chaser. First strike is a very relevant ability that allows the chaser to maintain relevance in the late game. Moreover, this *is* an aggressive format...the Pro Tour drafts are just one place where you can observe this, but in watching various streamers there's a broad agreement on this.
5-drops have rarely been hard to come by, and this format is no exception. I often see Cavalry going around pick 5-6, because you only need a couple of five drops. Yes, I would prefer cavalry over tiger, but they're both good options. If I'm in pack two and I'm still lacking a top end, then I might pick differently, but you just don't need many finishers, and therefore it's not something you need to be jumping to grab.
You're also comparing across a lot of different colors, when color matters a fair bit in this format. I'm much happier starting in red than I am in blue or white.
In general, taking a two drop is better than taking a five drop all things being equal, since you need more two drops than five drops. Plus, in this case it's not even equal. The cavalry is strong but quite replaceable, but whereas the aether chaser is considered by many to be the best common in the set, and red is a marginally better color to be in than green (though that last part is more debatable).
All in all, it's not a particularly close comparison, Aether chaser is the slam dunk pick and you move on to the next pack from there.
Started the draft with Baral's Expertise into Baral's Expertise, which put me firmly into blue, although it seemed to dry up later in the pack. Also opened Quicksmith Spy and Gonti, Lord of Luxury, then was passed Demon of Dark Schemes P3P3. So, I got really lucky on the bombs, but also had a well functioning deck. I wasn't running any non-creature artifacts, which does lower the power of the quicksmith, but I didn't get punished for it. Did get to grab Gonti back with Demon one time which was a complete blowout.
Not the most instructive draft ever, but bombs + removal is still a winning recipe for draft.
I regret getting hyped up for Monstrous Onslaught, as I ended up cutting the card from my GW deck, which only had 2 ways to get 4 power on the board. I blame that user who hyped me up, since it's much closer to my initial evaluation of "insane if you have a 6 power guy on board, okay with 4 power, and bad with 3 or less power". The green implement did a ton of work throughout the day, since it just gave a random counter for free.
I was completely blown out by that card twice this weekend, and I scored a 4-for-1 with it myself the one time I cast it in the midnight prerelease. The format seemed slow enough that it wasn't necessary to rush its deployment, yet there were enough relevant "go wide" strategies to still push an opponent into a situation in which it deals a considerable blow to their board.
Admittedly, the Tusker and Crazy Train seemed better overall, but I still can't see myself passing Onslaught P1p1 often.
I ended up taking it out of my deck because the only creatures I had with 4+ power was the Lifecraft Cavalry and Barricade Breaker. There is a huge dropoff in the card's power level between 3 and 4, so it's going to be one of these cards where you need to have a deck built for it, and deliberately put in Irontread Crusher and Cowl Prowler, etc. I think we'll have to see how the format shakes up, but I can see it being a bit too inconsistent to take P1P1 over even something like Daring Demolition
I think playing green and only having 2 creatures with 4+ power is extremely unusual...especially with vehicles in this format resulting in more high-power "creatures" than your average set. Your situation seems much more like a fluke to me.
Had Metallic Mimic, which was very good in a deck with 9 humans and 5 cats.
By far the best card in my deck, however, was Lifecrafter's Bestiary. Unless you're about to die immediately, this card is just an unbeatable bomb. The Scry and the ability synergize together amazingly, ensuring that you draw gas for the rest of the game. My deck in particular had 18 creatures, and I was often drawing 2 cards per turn off it in the mid-to-late game. Do not pass this card in draft.
I've been pretty disappointed with the format so far. Between mana screw/flood being extra punished and turn 3 trains rolling for the win, the are far too many non-games for the format to be enjoyable. I'll probably do some more paper drafts with friends, but I'm definitely sitting out MTGO for the rest of the format.
Actually, I'd say that signalling to your opponent is *rarely* something you should think about. The average player would improve their drafting if they gave zero consideration to the cards they were passing when they made their picks. This is especially true in triple _ formats, where there isn't a pack quality difference that might make you value pack 2 more than packs 1 and 3.
The Demon's the windmill slam pick here. Maybe you play it, maybe you don't, maybe the player to your left moves out of black, maybe not, but regardless taking the demon is the best set up for a good deck.
...but you don't just need those cards....your opponent has to be doing almost literally nothing. It's definitely much more likely then Hedron alignment, and I'm sure *someone* will pull it off, but I still think the odds are against any individual doing it over the entire format even if that's their entire goal.
If you approached every draft with the intent for winning a game with aetherflux reservoir, I think it's a heavy favorite that you would never pull it off over the life of the format. Maybe something in the spoiler will change that, but I doubt it.
I consider 1-2 of these maindeckable in a UR spell deck, and in other red decks a card that I'll start in the sideboard but readily bring in if I see a few ping targets.
It is true that a number of AER cards are really only good if you're using their synergy elements.
5-drops have rarely been hard to come by, and this format is no exception. I often see Cavalry going around pick 5-6, because you only need a couple of five drops. Yes, I would prefer cavalry over tiger, but they're both good options. If I'm in pack two and I'm still lacking a top end, then I might pick differently, but you just don't need many finishers, and therefore it's not something you need to be jumping to grab.
You're also comparing across a lot of different colors, when color matters a fair bit in this format. I'm much happier starting in red than I am in blue or white.
In general, taking a two drop is better than taking a five drop all things being equal, since you need more two drops than five drops. Plus, in this case it's not even equal. The cavalry is strong but quite replaceable, but whereas the aether chaser is considered by many to be the best common in the set, and red is a marginally better color to be in than green (though that last part is more debatable).
All in all, it's not a particularly close comparison, Aether chaser is the slam dunk pick and you move on to the next pack from there.
Draft Viewer
Started the draft with Baral's Expertise into Baral's Expertise, which put me firmly into blue, although it seemed to dry up later in the pack. Also opened Quicksmith Spy and Gonti, Lord of Luxury, then was passed Demon of Dark Schemes P3P3. So, I got really lucky on the bombs, but also had a well functioning deck. I wasn't running any non-creature artifacts, which does lower the power of the quicksmith, but I didn't get punished for it. Did get to grab Gonti back with Demon one time which was a complete blowout.
Not the most instructive draft ever, but bombs + removal is still a winning recipe for draft.
Well, now it is. Historically that hasn't always been the case, but that's WotC's plan now.
I think playing green and only having 2 creatures with 4+ power is extremely unusual...especially with vehicles in this format resulting in more high-power "creatures" than your average set. Your situation seems much more like a fluke to me.
Had Metallic Mimic, which was very good in a deck with 9 humans and 5 cats.
By far the best card in my deck, however, was Lifecrafter's Bestiary. Unless you're about to die immediately, this card is just an unbeatable bomb. The Scry and the ability synergize together amazingly, ensuring that you draw gas for the rest of the game. My deck in particular had 18 creatures, and I was often drawing 2 cards per turn off it in the mid-to-late game. Do not pass this card in draft.
Most only successful control deck in the format included 2x Die Young, 2x Essence Extraction, 2x Tidy Conclusion, 1x Malfunction, and 1x Confiscation Coup
The Demon's the windmill slam pick here. Maybe you play it, maybe you don't, maybe the player to your left moves out of black, maybe not, but regardless taking the demon is the best set up for a good deck.