Been working on Esper Gifts in that regard. I think one of the major things to think about, is being able to hard cast the fatty creature as well.
UWR doesn't have Lilly or Raven's Crime so Thirst is the major "get-this-crap-outta-my-hand" card, significantly weakening the package.
But in respect to targets, Aetherling and Elesh (with Elesh having the upper hand) are probably the ceiliing for UWR. You can run Iona in the side but I'm not sure I like her given the path splash in a lot of decks.
Hallowed Burial is very good in specific metas (see: grindy pod metas). It's super terrible in aggro metas and probably any sort of GP just because of the range of decks you can see. If I'm tapping out t5, I'd hope I was winning that game. Hallowed Burial doesn't hand you a "win the game" ticket. It just hands you a "this pod game will be easier" ticket.
This deck requires super tight play for any sort of GP, and I'd be hesitant to bring it. McLaren won, I think, because he had a field he could predict and bring the right answers for (storm, pod, big zoo, coupla' combo stuff). I'm not sure you can predict the series of MUs you'll see in a GP and the budget modern stuff (infect) tends to be a bit rough for us. For Worcester, I'm looking at packing Esper Gifts over this. Not sure I could do 2 days of exhausting MUs, given I make day 2 in the first place.
I've grinded the Tarmotwin for a bit. Goyf isn't the scariest card by far, given that you're only putting lands and instants in your GY for the early turns. Spell Snare is your savior in the MU since it hits (Scooze, Goyf, Remand, Leak).
In Tarmotwin, Thrun out of the side scares me the most, given my lack of ***s. If Thrun is a real threat, however, you can adjust your SB.
I take Bolt out in this MU, given Exarch, Goyf, Scooze. That might not be right so feel free to correct me.
Mono-Black Aggro has started to become a thing. It's top 8'd this weekend's GP and was successful last weekend. I also played against it this past FNM. I think it's pretty good. However, I think a green spash could do it some good.
Maybe, add 2x Reaper, 2x Scooze, and Charm and pro-blue package for SB? Is Warrior's Lesson a standard playable card? Probably not. That card would seem to need something like a build-around-me card like Agent of Fates.
Been looking at the lists and your guys' card draw is anemic.
Mid-range lists can survive on 3-5 draw spells (or draw engines, like courser + domri).
A couple Jace's and Divinations won't really cut through your deck.
(Though I did like the draw on the 3x jace 4.0, 2x Jace 3.0, and 5x draw spell list).
@TOG: Been relooking at your EOTSAYL lists and doing some tweaks due to the mid-rangey nature of the format. Have you done much to update your own list?
In the mirror, it's about speed and size. So courser comes out. A 6/6 that can monstrous and kill a dragon is much more relevant than a 2/4, even if it does net us cards.
Against Jund monsters and MJ's Naya monsters, I'd look into leaving in Courser. It really depends on if you think you can grind your opponents out with PWs and CA or how quickly you want to kill him. A well placed Dreadbore can really wreck our day so going all in on one fattie can be a bad time. On the other hand, their builds aren't that much different than us, so they could just be faster than one of our bad draws.
These, I feel, are not hard rules. You have to identify your opponent. I lost a mirror recently since the guy knew my build was already slightly slower than his and when he sideboarded, he just put the pedal to the floor. He identified me as, "not as fast GR aggro player" and went with what he thought were the strong aspects of his deck (aka ghorclaning Scoozes and Satyrs until dead).
Hopefully Bow of Nylea shouldn't be going into any of them since it's bad.
In all seriousness though, the card doesn't do a ton. It has "relevant" modes, but they all take time to impace how the game is going to get played, which you really don't want to have (more time, that is).
Gruul Charm comes in for the mirror. Arbor Colossus as well.
Edit: Actually, at a FNM, the Bow could be quite a good card since (1) it can force play mistakes and (2) some decks just try to be bigger than you, which can be a problem. Those decks fold to UW, which, while prevelant at a SCG or PTQ, may not be at your local shop. We prey on UW and UW should prey against those decks.
I actually really like your list and removal package as it looks similar to what I was running this summer.
Having played against Bant Control lists with GR monsters that are both light and heavy on PWs (4-10, respectively) I've noticed that lots of PWs are really good right now since they function well with board wipes and in the face of "avg. creature/good devotion enabler" lists. This, of course, may not transfer particularly well into Grixis walkers but it's probably something to think about.
Critique: Chandra still just looks really bad even with all the removal you're running. Have you found that you're running enough card draw? 2x Divination and 3x Opportunity seems really weak (see: slow) even with Jace supplementing.
Mutavault is much better than Nykthos. Mutavault is a Ghor-Clan target. Nykthos is a win more. We don't cheat the curve as much as, say, Gruul Devotion, so having Devotion greater than 3 turn 3-4 usually isn't as much as you'd expect. Also, we don't have a 2/2 that can chain into a Nykthos activation. You could run Nykthos if you don't have Mutavaults, but it's not anything special like in devotion lists.
The land base is pretty well developed and I'm under the impression you can:
- go up or down on the amount of mutavaults
- run 23 or 24 lands
- run 1-2 extra scrylands
- that's it, don't mess with it unless you have a good reason
If this deck is disappointing you, tighten up your play. It's very good against a lot of decks. You still just lose to MUD but you can't have 'em all (unless you Gruul Charm t3 for a 3 for 1, hooray lucky SB draws!).
Hexproof decks on the rise means that you can:
- run more SB cards if you actually expect hexproof decks? Destructive Revelry etc.
- Hope U/W wrecks their house, then prey on the U/W decks. That's the ideal world, at least.
This deck can be very high variance, surprisingly. I've also noticed that it rewards risky burn-you-out plays (i.e. double Ghor-Claning for lethal wondering if they have a Doomblade). If you go .500 at a FNM, don't get discouraged, just know that this deck will sometimes just not have it. Keep playing it and get better at your decision making (something I've gotten a lot better at), and you'll either run into a heater or just play so well that it doesn't matter.
Beating a UW player is reasonably easy as afosz has already said.
If you're having real problems with it, the SCG coverage from St. Louis will go up in a couple days on youtube. You can catch a couple games where GR dominates UW. It's a mix between pacing your threats and knowing when to just kill them, and perhaps not as intuitive as an experienced player might suggest, so watching some people play the deck will probably help.
Went 3-1 with the my above list at a Monday standard event.
2-0 Jund: He didn't curve out into anything. Pretty easy.
2-1 Minotaurs: Lost a game with a mull to 4 with 2 lands, Caryatid, and Mortars. Others just curved out and won.
0-2 Mono Green Devotion w/U spash for Prime Speaker: Game 1, no red land, caryatids, or Polukranos for the first 15 cards in my deck. Easy loss. Game 2, curved out my opening hand into Xenagos then drew land for the rest of the game.
2-0 MRD: Game 1, curve out into Courser of Kruphix and pull myself up into double digit life after early burn. Game 2, curve out into dragon as he gets stuck on one land.
I feel like risky takes with this deck are either exactly what you need to do to win or completely back breaking as you don't play spells. Learning exact mulls are going to take time with this deck, as I feel that when I lose, I lose on the back of bad mulls. Also, when I win, I notice that I'm reliant on top-decking.
Both Boon Satyr and Xenagod make hard casting a Ghor-Clan Rampager not absolute crap. I went to 0x Boon Satyr for 1 event but now am back to 2x. Boon Satyr allows for incredible amounts of flexibility and tempo plays. You can go under (flash/hardcast) or over (bestow to a dragon or trampler). It also allows flexibility in our Ghor-Clans since, when played with Satyr and Xenagod, you can hard cast them and know you have a way for them to impactful. In general, the more flexibility this deck has, the more it rewards skilled players, which I love. I don't think we want 0x Coursers, but it isn't an obvious 4 of. I know I was too hasty concerning it's value. It's good for CA but it can force games where, because you aren't faster or more explosive than some decks, you just gotta' top deck better than they do (with deck filtration, you can do better to some extent). It just doesn't kill our opponent faster (unless we are missing land drops otherwise), which we always want. So, because of this, Boon Satyr deserves another look.
I've been playing GR monsters as of late, and I can say that appropriate spot removal wrecks the deck. With your spot removal, you have two options against GRmunsters: kill the CA or kill the fatties. When you Thoughtseize, taking our curve cheaters or CA is brutal. Personally, I'd much rather see a spot removal deck take my fatties since I know I'll just draw into more of them. Kill Domri, kill courser, and know that Mistcutter Hydra and Ruric Thar are getting sided in against you (lol good luck). LBZ out of the side is very good against us.
Also know that GR monsters runs 2-3 Plummet in the side + Gruul Charm in order to shore up MUD and MBD, so take that into consideration as well if you're running a tempo shell.
I'm under the impression that Courser is better than Fanatic, although "I think" Fanatic is rougher against Grixis Control.
That's what I thought, but I was crushed by Firedancer. It was so bad a guy opened up double Firedancer and just shocked me to kill the Courser. Disciple seems like the only ting we can throw at them, but I have no idea how effective it will be considering how fast that deck can kill you.
RDW runs out of gas fast. If you can weather the initial storm, you should be able to just turn monsters sideways. 5/5 polukranos and 6/6 arbor colossus are too big for them. There is definitely a luck factor in that match.
Burn is not RDW. Double firedancer is pretty rough and Caryatid is probably your best friend. I played it two weeks ago with the first BnG FNM and managed to get it in 3 games. I'm still playing 4x Mizzium Mortars and my list is exactly Ketter's from last week. Burn has a couple key pieces that they need to kill you with. If you take a key pieces (YP, Firedancer) then you have a shot.
RDW is actually really easy for us, although the fanatic lists can prove difficult given the reach. Given their susceptibility to mortars and Polukranos, I think it's reasonably easy.
Gruul Charm allows for mirror blowouts and MUD flyer wipes. It's very good.
I've been testing and collecting parts for this for a couple weeks. I do have one concern:
What's the MBD matchup like? I haven't tested it and it seems like a Thoughtseize + any 2-4 drop play is very bad news for us. We don't go larger than a 6/6 for 4 and if our ramp is stripped then we can't out pace them. I suppose by playing Domri t2-3 we can keep their DD tapped down with mana dorks, but it seems like quite a few things need to go right for us to win the MBD matchup.
We're built to beat UW control decks (I've never not 2-0'd a UW deck) so that MU isn't a major concern.
MUD looks rough after watching the finals match last week. Our SB helps quite a bit (Gruul Charm + Plummet) but it seems like we need Polukranos early to win that game.
To concur with Kent Ketter, I found Scooze lacking and wishing he was a dork. I still run Nykthos, even though I don't run major devotion enablers, and it can create some great situations. I run 4x Elvish Mystic, 3x Sylvan Caryatid, and 2x Voyaging Satyr.
Everything else is in flux so posting my list is pointless, although Courser is included over Fanatic.
Mana base:
What's the opinion on running the 5th scryland as Ketter suggests? Effective, useful, worthless?
UWR doesn't have Lilly or Raven's Crime so Thirst is the major "get-this-crap-outta-my-hand" card, significantly weakening the package.
But in respect to targets, Aetherling and Elesh (with Elesh having the upper hand) are probably the ceiliing for UWR. You can run Iona in the side but I'm not sure I like her given the path splash in a lot of decks.
Hallowed Burial is very good in specific metas (see: grindy pod metas). It's super terrible in aggro metas and probably any sort of GP just because of the range of decks you can see. If I'm tapping out t5, I'd hope I was winning that game. Hallowed Burial doesn't hand you a "win the game" ticket. It just hands you a "this pod game will be easier" ticket.
This deck requires super tight play for any sort of GP, and I'd be hesitant to bring it. McLaren won, I think, because he had a field he could predict and bring the right answers for (storm, pod, big zoo, coupla' combo stuff). I'm not sure you can predict the series of MUs you'll see in a GP and the budget modern stuff (infect) tends to be a bit rough for us. For Worcester, I'm looking at packing Esper Gifts over this. Not sure I could do 2 days of exhausting MUs, given I make day 2 in the first place.
In Tarmotwin, Thrun out of the side scares me the most, given my lack of ***s. If Thrun is a real threat, however, you can adjust your SB.
I take Bolt out in this MU, given Exarch, Goyf, Scooze. That might not be right so feel free to correct me.
20x Swamp
4x Mutavault
Creatures: 24
4x Pack Rat
4x Rakdos Cackler
4x Tormented Hero
4x Herald of Torment
3x Lifebane Zombie
3x Pain Seer
2x Mogis's Marauder
4x Hero's Downfall
4x Thoughtseize
3x Bile Blight
1x Ultimate Price
2x Erebos, God of the Dead
1x Whip of Erebos
2x Doom Blade
2x Devour Flesh
3x Dark Betrayal
2x Desecration Demon
3x Duress
Mono-Black Aggro has started to become a thing. It's top 8'd this weekend's GP and was successful last weekend. I also played against it this past FNM. I think it's pretty good. However, I think a green spash could do it some good.
Maybe, add 2x Reaper, 2x Scooze, and Charm and pro-blue package for SB? Is Warrior's Lesson a standard playable card? Probably not. That card would seem to need something like a build-around-me card like Agent of Fates.
Cards to drop: Pack Rat, for sure.
Mid-range lists can survive on 3-5 draw spells (or draw engines, like courser + domri).
A couple Jace's and Divinations won't really cut through your deck.
(Though I did like the draw on the 3x jace 4.0, 2x Jace 3.0, and 5x draw spell list).
@TOG: Been relooking at your EOTSAYL lists and doing some tweaks due to the mid-rangey nature of the format. Have you done much to update your own list?
To make it more "monsters" just throw some Polukranos and company in there. Also, MJ's block lists are worth looking at.
Naya's strength is reliant on a lot of Theros cards, so this is a deck like UW from RtR, where the core cards won't rotate for a long time.
Naya hexproof is also a deck. Anyone interested in this shard should look at the lists from this weekend.
Against Jund monsters and MJ's Naya monsters, I'd look into leaving in Courser. It really depends on if you think you can grind your opponents out with PWs and CA or how quickly you want to kill him. A well placed Dreadbore can really wreck our day so going all in on one fattie can be a bad time. On the other hand, their builds aren't that much different than us, so they could just be faster than one of our bad draws.
These, I feel, are not hard rules. You have to identify your opponent. I lost a mirror recently since the guy knew my build was already slightly slower than his and when he sideboarded, he just put the pedal to the floor. He identified me as, "not as fast GR aggro player" and went with what he thought were the strong aspects of his deck (aka ghorclaning Scoozes and Satyrs until dead).
In all seriousness though, the card doesn't do a ton. It has "relevant" modes, but they all take time to impace how the game is going to get played, which you really don't want to have (more time, that is).
Gruul Charm comes in for the mirror. Arbor Colossus as well.
Edit: Actually, at a FNM, the Bow could be quite a good card since (1) it can force play mistakes and (2) some decks just try to be bigger than you, which can be a problem. Those decks fold to UW, which, while prevelant at a SCG or PTQ, may not be at your local shop. We prey on UW and UW should prey against those decks.
I actually really like your list and removal package as it looks similar to what I was running this summer.
Having played against Bant Control lists with GR monsters that are both light and heavy on PWs (4-10, respectively) I've noticed that lots of PWs are really good right now since they function well with board wipes and in the face of "avg. creature/good devotion enabler" lists. This, of course, may not transfer particularly well into Grixis walkers but it's probably something to think about.
Critique: Chandra still just looks really bad even with all the removal you're running. Have you found that you're running enough card draw? 2x Divination and 3x Opportunity seems really weak (see: slow) even with Jace supplementing.
The land base is pretty well developed and I'm under the impression you can:
- go up or down on the amount of mutavaults
- run 23 or 24 lands
- run 1-2 extra scrylands
- that's it, don't mess with it unless you have a good reason
If this deck is disappointing you, tighten up your play. It's very good against a lot of decks. You still just lose to MUD but you can't have 'em all (unless you Gruul Charm t3 for a 3 for 1, hooray lucky SB draws!).
Hexproof decks on the rise means that you can:
- run more SB cards if you actually expect hexproof decks? Destructive Revelry etc.
- Hope U/W wrecks their house, then prey on the U/W decks. That's the ideal world, at least.
This deck can be very high variance, surprisingly. I've also noticed that it rewards risky burn-you-out plays (i.e. double Ghor-Claning for lethal wondering if they have a Doomblade). If you go .500 at a FNM, don't get discouraged, just know that this deck will sometimes just not have it. Keep playing it and get better at your decision making (something I've gotten a lot better at), and you'll either run into a heater or just play so well that it doesn't matter.
If you're having real problems with it, the SCG coverage from St. Louis will go up in a couple days on youtube. You can catch a couple games where GR dominates UW. It's a mix between pacing your threats and knowing when to just kill them, and perhaps not as intuitive as an experienced player might suggest, so watching some people play the deck will probably help.
2-0 Jund: He didn't curve out into anything. Pretty easy.
2-1 Minotaurs: Lost a game with a mull to 4 with 2 lands, Caryatid, and Mortars. Others just curved out and won.
0-2 Mono Green Devotion w/U spash for Prime Speaker: Game 1, no red land, caryatids, or Polukranos for the first 15 cards in my deck. Easy loss. Game 2, curved out my opening hand into Xenagos then drew land for the rest of the game.
2-0 MRD: Game 1, curve out into Courser of Kruphix and pull myself up into double digit life after early burn. Game 2, curve out into dragon as he gets stuck on one land.
I feel like risky takes with this deck are either exactly what you need to do to win or completely back breaking as you don't play spells. Learning exact mulls are going to take time with this deck, as I feel that when I lose, I lose on the back of bad mulls. Also, when I win, I notice that I'm reliant on top-decking.
Anyway, here's what I got:
4x Temple of Abandon
4x Stomping Grounds
2x Mutavault
8x Forest
6x Mountain
Creatures:25
4x Elvish Mystic
3x Sylvan Caryatid
3x Courser of Kruphix
2x Boon Satyr
4x Ghor-Clan Rampager
4x Polukranos, World-Eater
4x Stormbreath Dragon
1x Xenagos, God of Revels
4x Mizzium Mortars
4x Domri Rade
2x Xenagos, the Reveler
1x Chandra Pyromaster
2x Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
2x Unravel the Aether
4x Mistcutter Hydra
3x Plummet
2x Arbor Colossus
2x Gruul Charm
Also know that GR monsters runs 2-3 Plummet in the side + Gruul Charm in order to shore up MUD and MBD, so take that into consideration as well if you're running a tempo shell.
I'm under the impression that Courser is better than Fanatic, although "I think" Fanatic is rougher against Grixis Control.
Burn is not RDW. Double firedancer is pretty rough and Caryatid is probably your best friend. I played it two weeks ago with the first BnG FNM and managed to get it in 3 games. I'm still playing 4x Mizzium Mortars and my list is exactly Ketter's from last week. Burn has a couple key pieces that they need to kill you with. If you take a key pieces (YP, Firedancer) then you have a shot.
RDW is actually really easy for us, although the fanatic lists can prove difficult given the reach. Given their susceptibility to mortars and Polukranos, I think it's reasonably easy.
Gruul Charm allows for mirror blowouts and MUD flyer wipes. It's very good.
What's the MBD matchup like? I haven't tested it and it seems like a Thoughtseize + any 2-4 drop play is very bad news for us. We don't go larger than a 6/6 for 4 and if our ramp is stripped then we can't out pace them. I suppose by playing Domri t2-3 we can keep their DD tapped down with mana dorks, but it seems like quite a few things need to go right for us to win the MBD matchup.
We're built to beat UW control decks (I've never not 2-0'd a UW deck) so that MU isn't a major concern.
MUD looks rough after watching the finals match last week. Our SB helps quite a bit (Gruul Charm + Plummet) but it seems like we need Polukranos early to win that game.
To concur with Kent Ketter, I found Scooze lacking and wishing he was a dork. I still run Nykthos, even though I don't run major devotion enablers, and it can create some great situations. I run 4x Elvish Mystic, 3x Sylvan Caryatid, and 2x Voyaging Satyr.
Everything else is in flux so posting my list is pointless, although Courser is included over Fanatic.
Mana base:
What's the opinion on running the 5th scryland as Ketter suggests? Effective, useful, worthless?