Correct me if I'm wrong but he works well with bounce spells? For instance Voyage's End? You steal anything but a creature, giving them the Chimera. Then you cast Voyage's End targetting the Chimera. Either it gets returned to your hand, or returned to your control and they bounce it or another one of your creatures...
Hopeful Eidolon. You won't regret playing at least one, if not two, but save it to cast as a Bestow if possible. Lifelink swings limited games, removing the opponent's ability to race. Particularly solid as a Bestow on Wingsteed Rider.
What's worse, it's a casting time choice ability, like kicker, which they have in the past acknowledged were bad. Players almost always want to go for the bigger ability, often to the detriment of the game. If people do go for the lesser choice, they feel cheated. If they wait for the bigger choice, they get beaten up. It's a mechanic that punishes the player.
2/2
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think kicker was pretty popular in Limited? The fact that you can play a card on curve if needed in your opening hand, or play the same card with more value if you top-deck it later is very strong. True, generally you want to bestow the creature, but you can also play it early if you need a blocker or a beater. Versatility is really valuable in Limited.
Worth considering when evaluating burn spells or creature power/toughness values.
Theros looks to be heavily populated with low power high toughness creatures which will encourage parity, improving the value of Devotion as a mechanic and increasing the value of evasion creatures.
Last Breath can exile 66% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
Lightning Strike can kill 81% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
A creature with 4 toughness can block 90% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
Isn't it a bit odd that Bident of Thassa has art that's different from in the Planeswalker's Guide but this bow has the same art?
I find some other things odd about Bident and this, namely the absence of the name which was given in the Planeswalkers Guide and the idea that the gods are Mythic but the weapons they use would be Rare.
Played Gruul. Swung for 18 trample a few times with Skarrg Goliath bloodrushed onto Ruination Wurm. Solid. Overall Orzhov cheap extorters and removal seemed strong. Syndic of Tithes and Basilica Screecher do very well in this respect. Play the Syndic no questions asked if you're Boros.
I've now done the same including commons and uncommon as opposed to just commons. Once again the results are solidly as follows for both means (rounded to the nearest 0.5), medians and modes:
Casting Cost: 3
Power: 2
Toughness: 2
As some have mentioned, it appears that GTC is a set of Bears (2/2s). This might change some opinions on fast, defensive creatures with 3 toughness (Frilled Oculus, Incursion Specialist), and removal spells that affect 2/2s such as Mugging and Dimir Charm.
Regarding removal in the set, it's not so much removal starved, as most colours have a few removal spells. On the other hand, unconditional, permanent, size irrespective removal is thin. Here's the list of such cards:
Don't know if anyone's mentioned it but it works well with mill. You put their stuff on their library and then mill it into their graveyard. Vanishment and Grasp of Phantoms worked reasonably well with Ghoulcaller's Bell.
Whilst this is a fairly quick and dirty way of assessing the set, it gives some good info for thinking about limited play, particularly sealed for those of you attending pre-releases:
The casting cost for most creatures is around 3. Compare this to RTR which had an average casting cost of 3.5 and this suggests GTC will be a little faster.
In RTR, average power and toughness were around 2.5 and 3 respectively.
For GTC, creature power averages out around 2. This means when putting together a defensive decks, you'll be wanting X/3 blockers, and you'll want them down on turn 3, even better on turn 2. Frilled Oculus and Incursion Specialist fit this requirement well, and might be worth considering for a stalling deck. Dimir Charm might also look a little nicer than at first glance.
Creature toughness also averages out around 2. Removal spells such as Mugging are a bit more valuable, and Disciple of the Old Ways and Truefire Paladin's ability to deal First Strike damage could be considered a significant boon.
Really enjoyed reading this, and made me rethink some of my original assessments of the cards.
A few things I thought you might have missed based on reading your analysis:
Because Battalion activates when you swing in, the enemy may either remove a creature before you declare attackers, at which point you can chose not to attack, or Battalion triggers when you swing in and then they can try to remove something. This seems like a plus - you can't be tricked out of Battalion.
The way Ooze Flux works with Evolve heavy decks is solid, in my opinion. You might only get a 3/3 or 2/2, sure, but as that enters the battlefield it can add more counters to your Evolve creatures. Once Ooze Flux is on the table, each 1G spent on it becomes an extra creature with no downside: with three Evolve creatures and Ooze Flux on the table for instance, it effectively reads "1G: Put a 3/3 Ooze into play."
Similarly, Biomass Mutation should work well with Evolve heavy decks. The base creatures become X/X, however the counters on them still increase their P/T - for Evolve, it is essentially +X/+X.
Bear in mind that at the moment I'm looking at these cards from a limited perspective.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think kicker was pretty popular in Limited? The fact that you can play a card on curve if needed in your opening hand, or play the same card with more value if you top-deck it later is very strong. True, generally you want to bestow the creature, but you can also play it early if you need a blocker or a beater. Versatility is really valuable in Limited.
Power:
0: 2%
1: 26%
2: 38%
3: 22%
4: 5%
5: 4%
6: 1%
Toughness:
1: 20%
2: 32%
3: 29%
4: 10%
5: 9%
6: 0%
7+: 1%
Worth considering when evaluating burn spells or creature power/toughness values.
Theros looks to be heavily populated with low power high toughness creatures which will encourage parity, improving the value of Devotion as a mechanic and increasing the value of evasion creatures.
Last Breath can exile 66% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
Lightning Strike can kill 81% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
A creature with 4 toughness can block 90% of the non-rare creatures in the set.
I find some other things odd about Bident and this, namely the absence of the name which was given in the Planeswalkers Guide and the idea that the gods are Mythic but the weapons they use would be Rare.
Casting Cost: 3
Power: 2
Toughness: 2
As some have mentioned, it appears that GTC is a set of Bears (2/2s). This might change some opinions on fast, defensive creatures with 3 toughness (Frilled Oculus, Incursion Specialist), and removal spells that affect 2/2s such as Mugging and Dimir Charm.
Regarding removal in the set, it's not so much removal starved, as most colours have a few removal spells. On the other hand, unconditional, permanent, size irrespective removal is thin. Here's the list of such cards:
Smite (conditional, sure, but a common condition - a blocked creature)
One Thousand Lashes
Grisly Spectacle
Debtor's Pulpit
Rapid Hybridization
Orzhov Charm
Angelic Edict
Hands of Binding (supertap, potentially permanent given its low cost and the many evasive creatures in the format)
Ground Assault (not specifically size irrespective, however generally creatures have toughness close to their casting cost. Assuming vaguely regular land draw for both players it will kill bombs)
As many have mentioned, Orzhov colours get a lot of great removal.
Mean Casting Cost: 3.06
Mean Power: 2.30
Mean Toughness: 2.36
Median Casting Cost: 3
Median Power: 2
Median Toughness: 2
Mode Casting Cost: 3
Mode Power: 2
Mode Toughness: 2
Whilst this is a fairly quick and dirty way of assessing the set, it gives some good info for thinking about limited play, particularly sealed for those of you attending pre-releases:
The casting cost for most creatures is around 3. Compare this to RTR which had an average casting cost of 3.5 and this suggests GTC will be a little faster.
In RTR, average power and toughness were around 2.5 and 3 respectively.
For GTC, creature power averages out around 2. This means when putting together a defensive decks, you'll be wanting X/3 blockers, and you'll want them down on turn 3, even better on turn 2. Frilled Oculus and Incursion Specialist fit this requirement well, and might be worth considering for a stalling deck. Dimir Charm might also look a little nicer than at first glance.
Creature toughness also averages out around 2. Removal spells such as Mugging are a bit more valuable, and Disciple of the Old Ways and Truefire Paladin's ability to deal First Strike damage could be considered a significant boon.
A few things I thought you might have missed based on reading your analysis:
Because Battalion activates when you swing in, the enemy may either remove a creature before you declare attackers, at which point you can chose not to attack, or Battalion triggers when you swing in and then they can try to remove something. This seems like a plus - you can't be tricked out of Battalion.
The way Ooze Flux works with Evolve heavy decks is solid, in my opinion. You might only get a 3/3 or 2/2, sure, but as that enters the battlefield it can add more counters to your Evolve creatures. Once Ooze Flux is on the table, each 1G spent on it becomes an extra creature with no downside: with three Evolve creatures and Ooze Flux on the table for instance, it effectively reads "1G: Put a 3/3 Ooze into play."
Similarly, Biomass Mutation should work well with Evolve heavy decks. The base creatures become X/X, however the counters on them still increase their P/T - for Evolve, it is essentially +X/+X.
Bear in mind that at the moment I'm looking at these cards from a limited perspective.