My team still wants to just mercy kill Wheat before he has to sink the effort into catching up only to get lynched tomorrow anyways.
I kind of don't hate the idea because I want to know if this was w/w or not, and if it is, it implies Grape would rather die over Wheat.
Acknowledging we're probably just lynching the claimed wolf though, it's just tempting from an analysis standpoint to find out what world we're definitely in.
If only I had a mouth to scream with... Then I could post.
I can't really see any way to interpret this than a caught wolf that wants put out of his misery, but isn't willing to lolcat or scumclaim.
See I'm not a funny person normally. So often when I try to joke around they come out overwrought and unfunny even if they were intended to be jokes.
Vote: Grapefruit
Oh, heh. Actively was a scum claim instead of just seeming like one. Got it.
I guess I don't really understand why you're giving up instead of pushing another slot, but probably will have to wait until postgame to find out. (Or daystart if I die)
Hey Marko, could you look back at the Grape/Osie interactions a bit?
I'm pretty tunneled on this being w/w, and that interaction is the crux of it. They just feel so fake, and the way both of them kind of got the wind sucked out of their sails after it was called out as being w/w makes me dive even deeper into that confirmation bias tunnel.
They agree with me that Grape is more likely to be a wolf, but think Osie's flip actually being in question makes it more interesting in terms of reading into this game day.
Voxx seems to be trying to take charge. Voxx, of all people. Okay.
My team basically has been spam quoting this in team chat and laughing hysterically ever since it happened, and it's pretty tough to shake. Like, hm.
I obviously wasn't active on D1 due to medical issues, but I've played 30ish games on MTGS, and I'm generally known as an active, good player. I've won a decent chunk of end-of-year awards, etc.
Like. I know Osie is newer to the site, I just have trouble wrapping my head around this 'Voxx of all people' thing, like I'm some kind of serial lurker.
I was top poster in Mistborn after subbing in. I was top poster on D1 of Dark and Stormy Night pretty recently, before RL forced me to replace out. Idk, it just doesn't feel like a real thought, but rather an attempt to discredit me and my reads.
At this point, we should take Grape to L minus 1. Get a claim. Then lynch unless we like the claim or can leash it. Time to get a flip to revitalize.
Don't you think Grape would've claimed by now if they had something?
On MS, the standard is claim at L minus 1 unless you have a guilty.
L-2 is claim range on MTGS generally. 99% sure Grape or Osie would have claimed by now if they had something that'd confirm them as town, especially given it'd clear up the gamestate where people think it's w/w.
If grape and osie are w/w the last wolf is the worst.
The confidence of his reads there is jarring considering he only enters the thread and feels that he has 2 hits right away.
That can only be tmi imo.
It's theoretically possible, and I've had that same thought, but I don't think TW and Osie are w/w here. Look back at their recent exchange, where Osie's getting pretty toxic in response to him, that feels a lot like wolf frustration at someone that has been pushing on them with what they consider bad posts/reasons etc. I spent some time re-reading Trob (the person TW replaced) and their posts about Grapefruit and I don't...think those are w/w. It's theoretically possible and I'd obviously lynch him over like, Tammy or SC and mayyyyyyybe Empoof, but I think if this is w/w then the 3rd is Tubba or Titus in that order.
If grape and osie are w/w the last wolf is the worst.
The confidence of his reads there is jarring considering he only enters the thread and feels that he has 2 hits right away.
That can only be tmi imo.
I still think Osie is town and Tubba is the second wolf. Wolves are bussing Grape to try and ml Osie imo.
Who is the third wolf in that world? I've spent a lot of time reading through Osie's posts, Grape's posts, and their interactions to try and find any hope that this isn't w/w but I just can't get over the like, narrative? Of the way they interacted being so fake, and then the wind being sucked out of their sails when they both get called out on being w/w. If one of them is a villager you'd think they'd be fighting to get the other lynched here a bit more, some kind of righteous fury/fire, but instead Grape is basically silently begging us to lynch him, and Osie's resorted to just complaining about the people pushing him instead of trying to get Grape lynched or to really figure out the rest of the wolves.
I'll go and pull up the posts that most scream to me that this is being w/w, I use VCA as much as you do, especially in larger games, but this is one of those times where context matters, and you have to look at like, the direct interactions, because they were lumped together in PoE's, and then immediately started to attack each other, and then when they got called out on it, kind of just...wilted.
If only I had a mouth to scream with... Then I could post.
I can't really see any way to interpret this than a caught wolf that wants put out of his misery, but isn't willing to lolcat or scumclaim.
I have a lot of trouble seeing Osie being a villager given this, because if this is w/v, like... you'd think Grape would be trying harder to at least get a mislynch before he died. I guess it's theoretically possible he's leveling it so that we just chain lynch Osie right after, but it just really feels like the wind got sucked out of both of their sails after their distancing fell flat.
I'm not certain on Tammy being town Voxx. They very well could be. I haven't played a game with her being scum in ages. I am hesitant for two reasons. First, Tammy's reluctance to give a read on me. While I know she and I routinely dance on each other, I figured Nacho and her team would read me. Second, Tammy is apathetic towards being scum. Letting Grape die while doing nothing (regardless of Grape's alignment) is ok for scum Tammy.
How are you 100% certain she's town?
You've missed some posts by Tammy, I think. Maybe she's been reluctant to talk to you about her/their read on you, but she tried to convince me that she doesn't think you're scum here.
The way I read Tammy isn't based on her words, or her actions at all, it's based on how she thinks - more specifically, how she visibly thinks. When she's a wolf I've never found a post she's made that just makes me go 'Aha, there it is, that's what I was looking for from her' the way I have 6-7 different posts in this game. It's like she'll write the same kind of meandering paragraph, but as a villager you can almost see her thought process wandering and twisting through the words like a tapeworm slithering through a brain or something.
I think the team-based element of this game has given extra opportunities for that kind of read to happen, and there's been some team thoughts that really resonate with me/my team as being Real Things That Happened, too, on top of her thought process being transparent/visible in a way she struggles to do as a wolf.
I can go through and pull a bunch of quotes sometime before the EoD as my 'never lynch Tammy' legacy for people to look at, but I'm pretty sure she's dead in next couple nights anyways so probably won't matter. Just high, high degree confidence read.
Yeah, I gave him some extra consideration given your read, and looked at/asked him about the things you were questioning - mostly the way he got to a town read on me pretty easily/solidly.
I'd just finished wolfing with him in a stupidly intense DLP game, immediately after I finished wolfing in Anniversary (god that was horrible, the near simultaneous wolf rands that meant I was spending 20 hours a day playing an alignment I utterly loathe), and his comparative/mindset read based on that and the posts in question is reasonable to have I think. I'm still a little skeptical that anyone /should/ have town read me off of anything I did D1, but I understand where it came from given the context.
There's also the thing where like, almost every one of my scum reads is pushing Osie in a kind of opportunistic, "****, well, I have to push some villager, but this is hard" kind of way. I don't think he's w/w with Grapefruit or Osie, tbh - if it turns out this is v/v he gets a lot more likely to be a wolf, but I have very high confidence wolf read in Grapefruit, and think it just makes Empoof town here.
I like the way he progressed and reacted to Ara, and I liked a lot of his early game stuff when I did my overnight re-read, just very... not quite nitpicky, but poking and prodding in a way that resonates with me as his town play over the one-dimensional scumplay from the game I just finished with him.
He's been disengaged, and his play kind of uninspired, but I don't think that's alignment indicative here. A byproduct of OOG factors, the long phases, and being content with where the gamestate is at right now that feels 'right' for him to be disengaged given the amalgamation of those things.
(I'm also giving /some/ credence to Ara/Visor/Lissa lock 100% town reading him to point that Ara screamed to never lynch him with her dying breath over and over, but I wouldn't be paying thaaaaat much attention to that read if I hadn't put in the work to decide he was probably town regardless)
We're collectively at like 100% certainty on Tammy being town.
I'm more sure than my team is on SC being town, as they're tinfoiling there slightly in worlds where Osie is v and Grape w. If this is w/w, SC is probably just town, and I personally think she's just town regardless.
We're pretty? sure that Empoof is town here. He probably has the most wolf equity of the top 3 town reads if the game turns out to like, not be as easy as it looks. My team is basically willing to sheep Visor/Lissa/Ara on this read to some degree, and making fun of them if it's wrong, but I think he's likely town independently of that, it's just not as strong as I'd like it to be given he hasn't really been around (for understandable reasons).
I think Marko's town. His re-entrance to thread here just has that same feeling of disconnectedness that I'm not sure he'd quite have as a wolf. Feel like he'd have a better grasp on what is going on and what angles to take as a wolf, and also don't think he's w/w with Grape.
I've talked about The Worst/Trob a fair bit, and we're mostly at like. He's probably town, but we don't really blame town if they end up lynching him at some point this game. I don't think he's ever w/w with Osie, so if that is a red flip you can just clear him likely. There's a chance he could be w/w with Grape if Osie is town, but I kind of think Trob had some posts that aren't likely to be w/w with Grape early in the game. It could have been a weird distancing interaction though, and isn't a lock clearing situation. It'd just be kind of weird for TW to so blatantly push Osie over Grape here with the votes ping ponging back and forth and him not...looking all that good in the process. On the balance, he's probably just town.
Given all of that, we still think it's 3 in Grape/Osie/Tubba/Titus, in roughly that order of certainty. Neither Tubba or Titus feel like perfect fits, but they're better fits than anyone else in the game, and my team (well, one of them especially) is just kind of rolling my eyes at me for still caring as much about this game as I do given it's probably just solved.
I kind of don't hate the idea because I want to know if this was w/w or not, and if it is, it implies Grape would rather die over Wheat.
Acknowledging we're probably just lynching the claimed wolf though, it's just tempting from an analysis standpoint to find out what world we're definitely in.
Oh, heh. Actively was a scum claim instead of just seeming like one. Got it.
I guess I don't really understand why you're giving up instead of pushing another slot, but probably will have to wait until postgame to find out. (Or daystart if I die)
I'm pretty tunneled on this being w/w, and that interaction is the crux of it. They just feel so fake, and the way both of them kind of got the wind sucked out of their sails after it was called out as being w/w makes me dive even deeper into that confirmation bias tunnel.
Mrgle.
My team wants this flip over Grape.
They agree with me that Grape is more likely to be a wolf, but think Osie's flip actually being in question makes it more interesting in terms of reading into this game day.
Can you ISO Tubba and talk to me about what you see in there? Both independent of any other players, and in conjunction with your current scum reads.
My team basically has been spam quoting this in team chat and laughing hysterically ever since it happened, and it's pretty tough to shake. Like, hm.
I obviously wasn't active on D1 due to medical issues, but I've played 30ish games on MTGS, and I'm generally known as an active, good player. I've won a decent chunk of end-of-year awards, etc.
Like. I know Osie is newer to the site, I just have trouble wrapping my head around this 'Voxx of all people' thing, like I'm some kind of serial lurker.
I was top poster in Mistborn after subbing in. I was top poster on D1 of Dark and Stormy Night pretty recently, before RL forced me to replace out. Idk, it just doesn't feel like a real thought, but rather an attempt to discredit me and my reads.
L-2 is claim range on MTGS generally. 99% sure Grape or Osie would have claimed by now if they had something that'd confirm them as town, especially given it'd clear up the gamestate where people think it's w/w.
It's theoretically possible, and I've had that same thought, but I don't think TW and Osie are w/w here. Look back at their recent exchange, where Osie's getting pretty toxic in response to him, that feels a lot like wolf frustration at someone that has been pushing on them with what they consider bad posts/reasons etc. I spent some time re-reading Trob (the person TW replaced) and their posts about Grapefruit and I don't...think those are w/w. It's theoretically possible and I'd obviously lynch him over like, Tammy or SC and mayyyyyyybe Empoof, but I think if this is w/w then the 3rd is Tubba or Titus in that order.
Who is the third wolf in that world? I've spent a lot of time reading through Osie's posts, Grape's posts, and their interactions to try and find any hope that this isn't w/w but I just can't get over the like, narrative? Of the way they interacted being so fake, and then the wind being sucked out of their sails when they both get called out on being w/w. If one of them is a villager you'd think they'd be fighting to get the other lynched here a bit more, some kind of righteous fury/fire, but instead Grape is basically silently begging us to lynch him, and Osie's resorted to just complaining about the people pushing him instead of trying to get Grape lynched or to really figure out the rest of the wolves.
I'll go and pull up the posts that most scream to me that this is being w/w, I use VCA as much as you do, especially in larger games, but this is one of those times where context matters, and you have to look at like, the direct interactions, because they were lumped together in PoE's, and then immediately started to attack each other, and then when they got called out on it, kind of just...wilted.
"Slowly". Hah. Hahaha. Hahahahahahaaha.
I can't really see any way to interpret this than a caught wolf that wants put out of his misery, but isn't willing to lolcat or scumclaim.
I have a lot of trouble seeing Osie being a villager given this, because if this is w/v, like... you'd think Grape would be trying harder to at least get a mislynch before he died. I guess it's theoretically possible he's leveling it so that we just chain lynch Osie right after, but it just really feels like the wind got sucked out of both of their sails after their distancing fell flat.
You've missed some posts by Tammy, I think. Maybe she's been reluctant to talk to you about her/their read on you, but she tried to convince me that she doesn't think you're scum here.
The way I read Tammy isn't based on her words, or her actions at all, it's based on how she thinks - more specifically, how she visibly thinks. When she's a wolf I've never found a post she's made that just makes me go 'Aha, there it is, that's what I was looking for from her' the way I have 6-7 different posts in this game. It's like she'll write the same kind of meandering paragraph, but as a villager you can almost see her thought process wandering and twisting through the words like a tapeworm slithering through a brain or something.
I think the team-based element of this game has given extra opportunities for that kind of read to happen, and there's been some team thoughts that really resonate with me/my team as being Real Things That Happened, too, on top of her thought process being transparent/visible in a way she struggles to do as a wolf.
I can go through and pull a bunch of quotes sometime before the EoD as my 'never lynch Tammy' legacy for people to look at, but I'm pretty sure she's dead in next couple nights anyways so probably won't matter. Just high, high degree confidence read.
Yeah, I gave him some extra consideration given your read, and looked at/asked him about the things you were questioning - mostly the way he got to a town read on me pretty easily/solidly.
I'd just finished wolfing with him in a stupidly intense DLP game, immediately after I finished wolfing in Anniversary (god that was horrible, the near simultaneous wolf rands that meant I was spending 20 hours a day playing an alignment I utterly loathe), and his comparative/mindset read based on that and the posts in question is reasonable to have I think. I'm still a little skeptical that anyone /should/ have town read me off of anything I did D1, but I understand where it came from given the context.
There's also the thing where like, almost every one of my scum reads is pushing Osie in a kind of opportunistic, "****, well, I have to push some villager, but this is hard" kind of way. I don't think he's w/w with Grapefruit or Osie, tbh - if it turns out this is v/v he gets a lot more likely to be a wolf, but I have very high confidence wolf read in Grapefruit, and think it just makes Empoof town here.
I like the way he progressed and reacted to Ara, and I liked a lot of his early game stuff when I did my overnight re-read, just very... not quite nitpicky, but poking and prodding in a way that resonates with me as his town play over the one-dimensional scumplay from the game I just finished with him.
He's been disengaged, and his play kind of uninspired, but I don't think that's alignment indicative here. A byproduct of OOG factors, the long phases, and being content with where the gamestate is at right now that feels 'right' for him to be disengaged given the amalgamation of those things.
(I'm also giving /some/ credence to Ara/Visor/Lissa lock 100% town reading him to point that Ara screamed to never lynch him with her dying breath over and over, but I wouldn't be paying thaaaaat much attention to that read if I hadn't put in the work to decide he was probably town regardless)
If it's exactly Grape/Osie/Tubba, I want a gold star for this game.
Off to sleep for tonight, though.