Assuming his 3.2 average is correct, I wanted to get thoughts on how this impacts the Gatekeepers.
a) Someone double-check my math, but...
b) Does any of this even matter?
I would argue with the premise. While its true you have a 3/10 chance of opening a gate in two of your colors, you have a 9/10 of opening a gate that only has one of your colors. So I think the question is more like "is it worth playing a rakdos guildgate in your esper deck to turn on your gatekeepers?"
Not too sure about the last one. Wizards may have decided to mix and match their packs?
I doubt they would go through that effort. Right now eight boosters of 15 cards each (including the guildgate) gives 120 cards which is one shy of a sheet. This suggests that each guild has a print sheet, and creating new guild packs would require making new print runs for all ten guilds. That's reordering 1200 cards! And then making sure each pack is balanced! Again, very unlikely.
The following points are based on analyzing what we know about the RTR and GTC guild packs. (Basically, there are eight possible packs per guild each with a specific set of cards).
NOTE: When I say [GUILD] opponent, I mean someone who has received a [GUILD] guild pack, not someone who happens to be playing those colors.
1. You will only see one of any given card from RTR or GTC.
For example, your Gruul opponent cannot have more than one Slaughterhorn in hand. This means that once he uses it, you do not have to play around that trick anymore.
2. Guild affiliated cards will only appear in the corresponding guild booster.
4. Some cards are more likely to appear in a given guild.
Your Boros opponent has a 1/8 chance of opening Act of Treason, but your Gruul opponent has a 5/8 of opening an Act of Treason. Thus, you should probably play around your Gruul opponent having Act of Treason (if you can afford it), but not your Boros opponent.
Your Orzhov opponent will have at least two pieces of removal from GTC, but your Boros opponent will likely only have one.
I've only provided a few examples, but looking at the actual guild packs data helps. I've limited my analysis to GTC mostly because we don't have all the RTR guild packs.
It looks like Azorius is the only guild with all limited playable rares, making it the safest pick? Golgari seems to have the most money rares with Orzhov and Boros coming in second. I'll probably go for Golgari for the chance at Deathrite/Abrupt Decay and because it's my favorite guild.
I opened my pre-ordered box today, and found some anomalous results. The tracks were correct, but the sequence was not.
I'm going to include everything I found. First, there was a row shift in the top and bottom halves of the box. Row four was displaced to row one, row ten displaced to row seven. I knew this from the pack sleeve number orders. I know I was correct to move them because once I figured out where I was on the tracks, I was able to correctly predict what the next cards I could expect were. However, the sequence they were in was not one of the four posted.
When I started opening the packs, I began on the top row. I got excited, because the top row was C A B, and that only exists in one sequence. So I counted down to an expected D track pack, and found one. The next pack was an A, so I opened that, only to find a B track card. After opening
Sequence:
left middle right
c a b
d a b
b c d
b d a
d a c
a/b c d
c d b/a
a b c
a b c
c d d
d a b
a c b
You're reading the track incorrectly. It's given right to left, top to bottom. You have the third track:
I like to use a sealed generator to make a sealed pool for each player. Then we build our decks with the actual physical cards (proxying rares as necessary). I haven't tried it, but I suppose you could also generate a pack at a time and draft as well.
It helps if you look at the physical cards, but some of the letters in the flavor text are misaligned. They appear a couple pixels(?) above the type line.
Edit: I'm following traditional color order: (WU, UR, BR, BG, GW) one letter from each card.
Not sure if this is the correct forum, but has anyone noticed the RTR guildgates spell out "The guilds of Ravnica" in the flavor text?
Each gate has several letters that are elevated higher than the rest:
Azorius: Senate, justice, foundation, Ravnican
Izzet: those, release, their, creations
Rakdos: Enter, indulge, may, again
Golgari: starving, rest, Ravnica
Selesnya: united, open, and
The GTC gates follow a similar pattern, but I can't tell what they say... Can anyone else figure out?
I went 4-0 with rakdos at my LGS with ~60 people. I went straight rakdos with no rares except the promo. The deck was decent with 6 removal spells and the rest creatures.
Most of my games were won by not giving my opponent a chance to stabilize and aggroing the out. The most popular guilds at my LGS seemed to be azorious followed by golgari and rakdos.
I would argue with the premise. While its true you have a 3/10 chance of opening a gate in two of your colors, you have a 9/10 of opening a gate that only has one of your colors. So I think the question is more like "is it worth playing a rakdos guildgate in your esper deck to turn on your gatekeepers?"
http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/silvestri-says-navigating-the-dragons-maze-prerelease/
He even links to one of the spreadsheets!
I doubt they would go through that effort. Right now eight boosters of 15 cards each (including the guildgate) gives 120 cards which is one shy of a sheet. This suggests that each guild has a print sheet, and creating new guild packs would require making new print runs for all ten guilds. That's reordering 1200 cards! And then making sure each pack is balanced! Again, very unlikely.
NOTE: When I say [GUILD] opponent, I mean someone who has received a [GUILD] guild pack, not someone who happens to be playing those colors.
1. You will only see one of any given card from RTR or GTC.
Thus, your Boros opponent does not have Scorchwalker. Your Simic opponent will not put Hands of Binding on Cloudfin Raptor. Your Azorius opponent will never Eyes in the Skies at EOT.
Of course, your Boros opponent may pick up bloodrush from DGM, so you have to play around that, but not any bloodrush cards from GTC.
The more of your opponent’s deck you see, the easier it is to determine exactly what guild packs he received.
Some other notable pairs:
Aurelia, The Warleader, Cinder Elemental, Prophetic Prism
Firemane Avenger, Mugging
Wrecking Ogre, Skaarg Guildmage
Merciless Eviction, Orzhov Keyrune
Your Orzhov opponent will have at least two pieces of removal from GTC, but your Boros opponent will likely only have one.
I've only provided a few examples, but looking at the actual guild packs data helps. I've limited my analysis to GTC mostly because we don't have all the RTR guild packs.
Do you guys have any other good tips/advice?
Link to all possible guild packs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Apln2HM4aSGbdDJ6MFk5cTBjb09sXzFWdndhTkx2V1E#gid=0
(Thanks brine!)
Link to the analysis I've done on GTC packs:https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqU0SlS5q2TYdGFQZ3d3Z1FJVW9sbHo2VExyMFJaTnc&usp=sharing
Maybe an enchantment that makes lands tap for a random color of mana.
Or maybe a symmetric effect like "any player may pay 3 life to counter any spell."
In any case, I hope we get something sweet!
You're reading the track incorrectly. It's given right to left, top to bottom. You have the third track:
BACBADDCB...
Boros Guildmage: 15049807000001
Vizkopa Guildmage: 15049807000002
Prime Speaker Zegana: 15049807000003
Skarrg Guildmage: 15049807000004
Duskmantle Guildmage: 15049807000005
Azorius: Senate, justice, foundation, Ravnican
Izzet: those, release, their, creations
Rakdos: Enter, indulge, may, again
Golgari: starving, rest, Ravnica
Selesnya: united, open, and
Edit: I'm following traditional color order: (WU, UR, BR, BG, GW) one letter from each card.
Each gate has several letters that are elevated higher than the rest:
Azorius: Senate, justice, foundation, Ravnican
Izzet: those, release, their, creations
Rakdos: Enter, indulge, may, again
Golgari: starving, rest, Ravnica
Selesnya: united, open, and
The GTC gates follow a similar pattern, but I can't tell what they say... Can anyone else figure out?
Knowing that each guild has 8 packs might become more useful come gatecrash, so that people in later prereleases know exactly what they can pull.
Most of my games were won by not giving my opponent a chance to stabilize and aggroing the out. The most popular guilds at my LGS seemed to be azorious followed by golgari and rakdos.