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    posted a message on Card Æsthetics Evaluation Thread
    I'm actually ok with these as stand-alones - they just look so jarringly different from everything else. I don't know which one I want to be the representative, though. Options I'm between:

    Consecrated Sphinx, Daze (Baze), Spell Pierce, Maelstrom Pulse, waiting to see what's in Hour of Devastation
    Posted in: The Cube Forum
  • 1

    posted a message on Full invocations reveal minus new cards - Shows gods are likely mono-coloured.
    Quote from asmallcat »
    Quote from LouCypher »
    http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/card-preview/masterpiece-series-amonkhet-invocations-2017-03-29

    5 slots are missing. Likely 1 for each colour. Gods mono colour confirmed?


    I mean, I don't see how the 5 gods being the 5 remaining invocations would have anything to do with whether they are multi- or mono-colored. It just would confirm there are 5, which we already know.
    It would confirm they're monocolored because of the numbers that are missing from the invocations - 5, 15, 20, 27, 28. The first three are smack dab in the middle of colors.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
  • 0

    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    As promised, here are all my chats:

    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey D_V. Wanted to get some extra chatting going. Curious where you stand on Tom after recent posts - will follow up with more to chat about as things develop.

    Quote from Cythare »
    Also, if you think it would be useful to your ability, I can motivate you with 2 Empowerment.
    Quote from Cythare »
    As long as it isn't a killing ability. I can't motivate those.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'll share my list with you so that you have it to verify later.

    Town:
    D_V
    shadowlancerx
    TheIceMan

    Lean Town:
    Axelrod
    Tordeck
    Gentleman Johnny

    IDK/Neutral:
    Cyan
    Seppel

    Lean Scum:
    tomsloger*
    Iso
    Manders

    Scum:
    Wildfire
    Anaklusmos

    *Would be stronger, but cannot be scum with Anaklusmos.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I think you're up on the list thing.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Heads-up, I think that your vote is L-1, and we probably want to get everyone to empower before Night.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I assume you're talking about the motivate. I'm still at 0 empowerment, but if I can get 2, you have the motivate toNight.
    Quote from Cythare »
    If you see this and are able to respond before twilight ends: If you don't get the additional empowerment (since you said you needed 5 on D1), should I still move forward with motivating you? I don't want to waste the empowerment if you won't be able to make use of it.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ok, cool, thanks for confirming!
    Quote from Cythare »
    I have a question for you if you see this that will be at the end of this info dump - trying to figure out if it's worth asking for empowerment toNight because of another ability of mine. You can pass this info along to Tom too if you want. In addition to the 2 empowerment motivate, I can also:

    3 - Redirect an ability of someone that I've initiated a chat with.
    5 - Gain a Daykill the next day that I can use on someone that I've initiated a chat with.

    I can also chat with an extra person for each time a townie is killed or lynched, so I've initiated with Megiddo (who I'm 2-waying with), yourself, and TIM. I currently have one extra chat available that I've saved because I'm not sure what my best approach is any more, and then, when you presumably flip town, I'll have another.

    I gained an ability that granted me 1 empowerment last Night and also got 2 other empowerment, so I could theoretically daykill tomorrow with 2 empowerment toDay unless there's another target you think is better for my motivate. My choice will potentially change depending on the lynch flip and (obviously) if I can get empowerment, but I'll give you some coded options below:

    a) Daykill tomorrow.
    b) Motivate Tom.
    c) Motivate TIM.
    d) Motivate someone else.
    e) Redirect...someone?

    For A/D/E, if you want to specify your preference, add a second letter as below:

    a) Axelrod
    b) Seppel
    c) shadowlancerx
    d) tomsloger
    e) Manders
    f) Wildfire
    g) Anaklusmos
    h) GJ
    i) Cyan

    Thanks!
    Quote from Cythare »
    please read this before you die
    Quote from Cythare »
    Lol thanks - you had posted a lot and I was mildly worried that you wouldn't check your PMs in time.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I can also repeatedly daykill, but idk if I'll get that much empowerment a second time, if it'll even be necessary.
    Quote from Cythare »
    i'm really tempted to just vig manders
    Quote from Cythare »
    Also, tom is extra confirmed town because you now know that I'm the redirector unless there are two. I'd tell him myself but want to make sure I don't mess up my vig tomorrow if given the empowerment.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I think GJ is likely the lynch tomorrow, so idk if he's worth vigging.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey,

    Mostly reaching out to you for mechanical reasons. You're solidly town and my role has some mechanical things related to one-way chats. Other than you, I've reached out to Megiddo and D_V.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey zomgarcwind,

    I'd initiated a one-way chat with TheIceMan, so I'm just setting this up since you've replaced in for him. For reference, the only thing I ended up PMing him was:

    Hey,

    Mostly reaching out to you for mechanical reasons. You're solidly town and my role has some mechanical things related to one-way chats. Other than you, I've reached out to Megiddo and D_V.

    -----------

    I don't really have much else to PM you about at the moment, but I'll follow up as things come up.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Let's chat more! 24 hours extension (7.5 hours left)!
    Quote from Cythare »
    I forgot to do this. I'm not sure if it's required that I open this chat or just request it. Hello and good-bye, I guess?

    I appreciate your reads if you're actually town.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hello!
    Quote from Cythare »
    Let's chat more! 24 hours extension (7.5 hours left)!
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey there.
    Quote from Cythare »
    24 hour extension, in case you didn't see. There are 7.5 hours left.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Megiddo's response is "review his most recent post in the thread".
    Quote from Cythare »
    Not sure if you also got a PM from Azrael, but he posted in Meg/my chat saying that quoting other PMs is forbidden in PM chains. Meg said that he is not going to c&p your messages to him and I also won't, but will get the full message through without it.

    I understand that you want to maintain maximum message integrity, but it can still be done.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh, also, re:last scum. I told Meg that I'm spending this afternoon reviewing everyone except DoTA (since if it's DoTA, it'll become painfully clear when Day starts). I had locked onto you due to you doing very little all game and then locking onto my neutral claim, but now that we're this far along, I need to review yourself, Meg, and Tammy in full. I'll follow up with both you and Meg later today.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Meg wanted me to let you know that:

    -He isn't going to discuss your issues with him. He just reiterated to look at his last post.
    -He agrees with your Night action.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Sending this a bit later than originally intended - was out playing Legacy and my phone died. Anyways, Meg asked me to give you a rundown of our PM chain. If I miss any p's in this rundown, it's because that key is on the fritz.

    After I reached out to him D1, I gave him my full role (minus my neutral alignment and current empowerment score).

    During N1, I asked him to query proph on his Iso scum read since he didn't say where it was coming from - specifically if it was related to the constant catchup, his reaction to Bur, or something else (or more than 1). I thought that Bur's flip made Manders look worse and that I was stuck on her early posts being terrible, and was concerned because otherwise I had a bunch of middling reads. My thoughts on the Bur lynch I shared with him were that Manders, Iso, and Anak looked bad, and that D_V's vote looked terrible but I thought it was NAI, and then told him I was connecting with D_V. He then connected back with me.

    D2, we discussed how Wildfire felt different, where I noted that he was fishing and smearing Tordeck whose actions were NAI while also casting WIFOM. I wanted to pursue him, Anak and Tom, but felt that Tom and Anak couldn't be scum together. Neither of us had experience with scumtom. I also shared my list with him, which was the same as the one I osted. We discussed Manders defensiveness about RL and Meg noted that was +scum. I shared how I liked TIM's post breaking down the Bur wagon. We discussed hoing WF would shoot to roll things along, and he didn't like D_V's push for TS lists. Meg asked me why I wasn't farming empowers, and I told him that I'd connected with D_V and TIM (did not mention the WF connection).

    We didn't talk N2.

    D3, I discussed getting 3 empowerment (1 being the ability I'd actually gotten N1, and the other 2 being the mystery empowerment I never figured out) and that I'd motivated D_V. He wanted me to shoot you when I got to 5 empowerment after we lynch Wildfire and I agreed that WF was the clear lynch for the Day. I questioned why you over Manders and clarified the "magical friend" code D_V was talking about, who preferred Manders over you. Meg was fine with this. I stated that I didn't really want to vig you at the time, and was between Wildfire and Manders. I shared that I could daykill rivately, then reiterated that both GJ and Wildfire looked scummy. Later in the day, he asked if I wanted his empowers and who I'd shoot with it, and I told him you or Manders, since I already had 5 empowerment and he was thinking very far ahead (the D3 lynch, the NK, my D4 vig, the D4 lynch, and the N4 NK). In a world where Meg is scum, this would be one of my red flags. I also stated that I could use his empowers for non-killing things, and he didn't engage on that. I also then told Seppel all of my abilities. He asked if I was playing my scumgame, which I admitted that I was because my towngame ends u getting me lynched (referring to not engaging as much and leaning on using my role).

    N3, we discussed GJ's fli, which Meg said he was mildly surrised about. We talked about doing more interaction analysis and he offered me his empowerment again. He seemed to be coming around to TownWF, so I asked him why. His reasoning was that Sudden Death use was questionable and some "small gut things". I did interactions for GJ but he didn't engage until D4.

    D4, after comaring our analyses, Meg came to a group to look into of: Anak, you, Cyan, me, Shadow (who had died by then), GJ (who he left in for some reason), and WF. I waffled between vigging you and Anak and ultimately shot Anak. Meg confirmed that he didn't give me his empowerment and then asked if I could shoot again, and I confirmed that I couldn't. He dumped all the vote counts into the chain, then didn't do much with them.

    N4, he asked about you again and then asked if I was neutral. I said you were likely town since I was neutral and explained my win con and who I needed to connect with still. I came clean about the Wildfire chat/redirect that we discussed at length yesterDay. He asked me if I left when I finished connecting. He got nervous about my claim because it required town deaths and that I'd potentially end the game with everyone else losing. I said that me wanting town deaths deended on how the Night shook out. If you hit the last scum N4, I would lose. If you and the last scum both hit outside tom/cyan/you/Manders, then I'd need one mislynch to win. If either your shot or the NK fell in that grou, I didn't need a mislynch to complete my connections. If I was shot, then it also wouldn't matter. I reiterated that if one of the kills was in the above group, it didn't really matter since I'd finish connecting, so he really needed to trust me. This is a decent point in favor of townMeg, since if he was really that worried, he could have just killed me to remove the risk of me winning before he could. He then asked me to give you the 0 ability, since I said that I couldn't decide between you and DoTA. He did some more interactions and concluded Cyan was the last scum, which turned out to not be true. I showed some hesitancy on that front since Cyan had a clear opportunity to bus Wildfire but instead dug in and said he'd fli town, especially after it was out in the open that there were 3 killing roles.

    We didn't talk at all during D5 until the end of the day when I asked him about my plan that I rpoposed. I stated that I didn't want him to empower you since that would just result in me dying, as I assumed you'd just shoot me given how the Day went. We then chatted a bit more and he convinced me that Manders' claim shifting back and forth and votecount analysis meant that she should probably be the lynch for the day. The Iso/Manders chat was also a factor for him. He wanted to empower you because he assumed you having a 2-empower kill was too strong for scum. I asked how he felt about not empowering you or having me empowered to defend myself, and he agreed with the line where empowering anyone not named DoTA was too risky. He reiterated that he doesn't think you or me can be scum, but then walked it back a bit by admittingthat he might be overevaluating Wildfire's ability. He seemed to show hesitancy or fence-sitting by saying that Manders had been asking for 5 empowers consistently, then circled back to wanting to lynch her after the mess of her claiming, which I agreed to.

    That brings us to toNight, where he disclosed your connection to him and asked me to ferry his thoughts back to you. We haven't said much that I haven't assed along other than him admitting that he fed me false info because he was worried that I wouldn't give you all the info he was sharing.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey Seppel,

    So this is the other option. I'm able to open an additional channel each time a townie dies (Meg and maybe Tom can confirm this, but I'd rather not broadcast it to the thread), so I can ferry info to you as needed. I'm happy to coordinate with you in a two-way if you still have your chat available.

    I currently have one left after this channel, having set up chats with Megiddo, D_V, TheIceMan (now zomgarcwind), and you.

    Quote from Cythare »
    Also, if people want to move forward with shadowlancerx's plan, I have no intention of broadcasting that I can open additional chats.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I don't get Cyan's "changing" statement because I was told that zomgarcwind automatically inherits the chat I initiated with TheIceMan.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh right, I forgot about you using your chat to try to save D_V. Worth a try. Frown
    Quote from Cythare »
    Cyan's statement about Wildfire being the Vig clicked something for me - my 5 empowerment ability is that I gain a daykill the next Day. Do we think that there can be 2 Vigs in this game? It's not outside the realm of possibility, but between this and his questionable play toDay, I'm becoming more convinced that there aren't. I don't really want to claim this in the thread, since I found out from Azrael that I can submit my daykill privately and can therefore potentially not have to one-for-one myself with the scum. Maybe I just daykill him tomorrow if he isn't the lynch and we go from there if I can't get enough support without claiming?
    Quote from Cythare »
    In the interest of maximizing info, here are my other abilities that I can use. Megiddo and Tom both know about them:

    2 - Motivate a non-kill ability (I used this on D_V last Night, which is what allowed him to doc so many people.)
    3 - Redirect
    Quote from Cythare »
    You're talking about myself and Megiddo, yes?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I guess I could have said that in the thread.
    Quote from Cythare »
    hi tammy
    Quote from Cythare »
    We got the extension, we should use it!
    Quote from Cythare »
    Just 24 hours, so it ends in 7.5 hours.

    And the gargantuan one:
    Quote from Cythare »
    bingo bango bongo
    Quote from Cythare »
    Anyways, I think you're pretty lock town? You're keeping up and your responses to Proph seem town, so yeah. I clearly need to flesh out my reads but would also love input on how to play my role, as they're somewhat intertwined further down the road. Here's what I've got:

    0 - Initiate a one-way chat with another player or spectator. Can do this at any time, but only once for each town player that's died. Doesn't stop me from using another ability concurrently.
    2 - Motivate a non-kill ability from someone I've initiated a one-way chat with.
    3 - Redirect an ability of someone I've initiated a one-way chat with.
    5 - Gain a daykill the next Day that can be used to kill any player that I've initiated a one-way chat with.

    It's got some play for initiating chats with both town and scum, so I need to flesh out dem reads overNight. I get to look forward to all of the PMs.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Can you ask Proph if his read on Iso is because Iso spent the whole day reviewing the past, his reaction to Bur, or something else (or a combination)? I can see the read based on the first thing, and am curious where Proph's head is at.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I could do this myself, but feel like I should focus on connecting with non-spectators for now.
    Quote from Cythare »
    So, I feel that this flip makes Manders look worse. I get that others think that she's town, but I'm still stuck on a lot of her early posts being terrible.

    Otherwise, I'm concerned because I do have a lot of middling reads. I don't know if it's me and I'm just not picking up on things or if this playerbase is just generally eh this time around. Having not taken the time to review yet, I'm up to 4 people in my town pile, 4 people in my scum/leaning scum pile, and then just this mess of people that idk about.

    That said, a few of them are people that have been around a while that I just don't have much knowledge on. Like Cyan. Or Tordeck.

    Of the Bur lynch, the votes I don't like are:
    Anak - this is largely because of my existing scum read on him, but part of his vote appears based on claim, which is garbage in a game where Azrael's stated that roles might be randomized.
    Iso - Is basing his vote on the past stuff and just wagoning. This feels opportunistic to me. Also his last post felt artificial.
    Manders - While I don't disagree with the decision to hammer if she's town, the pontificating in her hammer post just felt unnecessary and came across like an attempt to blunt any blowback hidden in a chiding.

    D_V's vote looks pretty *****ty, but since it's D_V, I'm pretty sure it's NAI.

    This is pretty kindergarten-level analysis, but it's a start for where to look tomorrow.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Connecting with D_V once Azrael gives me the go-ahead.

    I dislike Manders' post there.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I guess I could also use my last thing to connnect with Seppel so that I can dayvig him down the road if need be, but that may not be worth it over just motivating D_V (assuming I ever get any empowerment).
    Quote from Cythare »
    Connected with D_V.

    Are you still planning to connect back or no?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ok yes I am here. had to confirm with Az.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i still dislike manders yes.

    wildfire feels... different Today.
    Quote from Cythare »
    cool cool
    Quote from Cythare »
    Wildfire definitely feels different. The first part of his post is fishing, the second part is a smear attempt rather than actually questioning Tordeck (who I understand does this either way so motivation is important), and the third part is wifom. I'm fine pursuing him today while also following Anak and Tom.

    Still don't think Anak and Tom can be scum together but idk who the scum there is since they're both playing pretty questionably.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i haven't played with tom since the one time and I have a feeling that his scumgame might be better than at that point.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I don't think I've played with scum!tom before. I know that he's a bit...avante-garde, but I just don't like his play here.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'll share my list with you so that you have it for this thing.

    Town:
    D_V
    shadowlancerx
    TheIceMan

    Lean Town:
    Axelrod
    Tordeck
    Gentleman Johnny

    IDK/Neutral:
    Cyan
    Seppel

    Lean Scum:
    tomsloger*
    Iso
    Manders

    Scum:
    Wildfire
    Anaklusmos

    *Would be stronger, but cannot be scum with Anaklusmos.

    Happy to discuss specifics with you later, but have to get to doing things.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I think that Manders going out of her way to go early is a town sign. I need to reevaluate her.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh whoops. She was only 1 spot out of order. Disregard my previous message about it being a town sign.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    being aggressively defensive about your RL circumstances is +scum for me

    but IDK, manders is just like this, which is why I don't like her. so take that read with salt.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    what are your thoughts on post 1200?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    also nothing changed on your T/S list between when you told me and when you posted it?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I mean, isn't that where Manders Busy comes from? I don't want to ***** on her circumstances, but yeah.

    Nothing changed on my T/S list, and I don't see what you think I might be missing. There was the GJ/Wildfire back & forth and then some posts from Anak/Axelrod/Manders that didn't really change my opinion on any of them.

    I like #1200 a lot. It looks at Bur's wagon and surrounding events in much greater detail than Anak did, and I think that his critical review of things comes across well. I didn't like how he portrayed my #1016, but that's a minor point in the context of an overall otherwise good post. I don't agree with his priorities, but do see where he's coming from with GJ. I don't like tom's followup vote.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm bored and hope that Wildfire will use his ability so that...something happens.

    maybe if we wagon him
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Yes I also hope this.

    DV pushing for this claim is a bit suspicious? He had to know that this would happen. T/S lists are garbage.

    Incidentally this is why I avoid playing in large games. It's very easy to get stagnated.

    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah. It doesn't help that part of the drag is because the random order had D_V next and he was just like "can't play for 2 days, have finals". So here we are.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    lol didn't even see that

    Quote from Megiddo »
    hey aren't you a vig
    Quote from Cythare »
    A very slow, convoluted vig, yes. I have a night ability that grants me a daykill the next day that requires 5 empowerment, of which I have none, and can only use it on people I'm chatting with.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    are you chatting with anybody else yet?

    why aren't you farming empowers fam
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm one-waying with D_V, who's been absent, and also TIM.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    interesting. not with any scumreads yet?
    Quote from Cythare »
    No, I wanted to set up a couple townreads first, and have somewhat mixed feelings about connecting with scumreads, even if I can theoretically vig them down the road. With Tordeck's flip, I can set up another one, but I would need to start campaigning for a lot more empowerment to vig, and am not sure if I can make that happen.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Kinda want to one-way with Proph for the extra insight even though that doesn't help me with my abilities thing.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I take back what I said about Proph after his posting today.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    what did you say about prop
    Quote from Cythare »
    I said that I wanted to connect with him for additional insights, but then I read his posts today, and now I see where you're coming from.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    lol my dude

    happy holidays
    Quote from Cythare »
    Happy holidays to you too!
    Quote from Cythare »
    So that is a thing that happened.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Also, I gained empowerment last Night, which was kinda cool. 1 looks like it's from an ability that I gained that lets me give another player 1 Empowerment and then I lose the ability and that player gains that ability. Idk where the other 2 came from. If I can get 2 more Empowerment, I think I may activate my dayvig ability for tomorrow? I still have an extra comm channel that I can open up so that I can vig whomever.

    Unless you think I should use another ability, but w/o D_V, I'm not sure who I'd want to motivate and idk who I'd redirect, but we can also figure this out post-D_V's flip and the lynch if you're around and able to feedback.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    man

    waiting on dv flip 4 now

    ez wildfire lynch IMO. shoot axelrod.
    Quote from Cythare »
    i mean yeah, wf is the clear lynch here

    You'd prefer an Axelrod shot over a Manders shot? That's what I was "discussing" with D_V via convoluted code. I'm the "magical friend" he keeps responding to, in case you hadn't come to that conclusion on your own.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    I figured

    Manders shot is OK with me too I think. Less sure on that one right now but i'm not opposed.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ugh. I just voted silvercrys in spec ops but I should probably not have done so.
    Quote from Cythare »
    What do you think is the likelihood that GJ and Wildfire aren't both scum? Maybe the right play is just to vig the one of those two tomorrow that we don't lynch today and go from there? If that ends the game, then we're set, and if not, we can go from there?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I know you really want to vig Axelrod, which I'm also open to, but the above two are probably the best bets. If we lynch GJ, I can also try to vig Wildfire before he can Quick Draw, but that seems kinda risky.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm confused by Cyan saying he wants to change who he's chatting with because I was told that zomgarcwind automatically inherited it.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Cyan's statement about Wildfire being the Vig clicked something for me - given that I can vig, what is the likelihood that there are two town killing roles?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Also I heard back from Azrael about how my daykill ability works to make sure I didn't misunderstand anything and I can apparently submit my kill in private. o.O
    Quote from Megiddo »
    are there only 3 scum?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Idk but I figure GJ and Wildfire both look pretty scummy. If there are just 3 and they're both scum, great! If they're not both scum or the game is still going, then we can review.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    have you claimed your abilities to anybody but me yet?
    Quote from Cythare »
    D_V (and Tom) know all of my abilities. Seppel knows that I can daykill but I don't think I told him the rest of what I can do other than the extra chats.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ok.

    do you want my empowerment? who would you shoot?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'd probably shoot Axelrod or Manders, but it depends on today's flip, the NK, my vig tomorrow, tomorrow's lynch, and tomorrow night's NK. That's a lot of flips to take into account.

    If I have your empowerment, I could also leverage a motivate or redirect if those end up looking like better options after tomorrow's lynch.
    Quote from Cythare »
    My read on Manders has actually tempered a bit of late, though, mostly due to interactions with GJ. Axelrod would probably get the nod if I had to vig one of the two of them right now.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I decided to tell Seppel my other abilities. If he's scum, then he's got my number. I don't think he is, though.
    Quote from Cythare »
    How do you feel about Seppel's plan? Also, is it worth linking up with Tom so that I can also share info with him? The risk being that if a townie doesn't die tonight then I can only vig you, Seppel, Tom, or TIM, none of whom I want to vig.
    Quote from Cythare »
    But I guess then a townie wouldn't have died.

    Still not the best time to reach out, I guess.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    seppel's plan doesn't work period.

    unless he made a new plan
    Quote from Cythare »
    No, it was the same one - I just hadn't seen your thoughts on it anywhere and wanted to ask.

    I'll also give the full answer to your question here and then only part of it in the main thread. Whenever I try to have more of a public presence in a game, I always end up scumread and mislynched, so I figured I'd lean more heavily on my role and work in the background, especially since my multiple connections allows me to do so more easily than usual.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    isn't that your scumgame
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yes, but it's much more effective than my towngame, so I'm trying to mimic it.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    o...oh
    Quote from Megiddo »
    we can use these at Night, right?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, they're open all the time.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    cool

    I'm like mildly, and I do mean mildly surprised at TCM scumflip. maybe the game is just on easy mode?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    I also did the same interaction analysis you did. Want to chat about it? over Night we can do part 2, which is TCM's posts, and look for any obvious overlaps!
    Quote from Megiddo »
    if we lynch Anak tomorrow we're probably in good shape regardless though.

    want to become a vig? I have 5 empowerment.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Sure! I don't know how much time I have tonight, but I can still chat about ISO's a bit for now and dig into GJ tomorrow.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'd also like to know what is making you town read Wildfire, but we can review that after the GJ interactions are finished.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    wildfire... mostly small gut things. like him activating SUDDEN DEATH is ?? for me. And on review his posts after his second shot were not as bad as I expected. Overall not great though.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, I guess that his use of Sudden Death is kinda questionable. I can see potentially using it as either alignment if he thought he was the lynch, but idk.

    I also didn't see your message about the empowerment. It would let me use a second shot for D5, since I have enough empowerment for a shot now. I think that'll potentially be useful.

    I'm going to get started on the GJ interaction analysis after I get some work stuff going.
    Quote from Cythare »
    This is slow going. I'm on page 10. It doesn't help that I have to search for both GJ and Johnny.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i like to just ISO the person and click individual posts when needed
    Quote from Cythare »
    Wait, do you see how GJ interacts with/responds to/mentions others, or how others interact with/respond to/mention him? I thought I did the former in another game and was told I did it backwards, so I have been going through other people's posts for mentions and interactions with him.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh, I found an old discussion I had with Proph where he said he does both, but often just does the "how GJ interacts with others" to save time. So, I guess I'll do it the way I did with Iso because I'm already partway through it.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i'm the one who created this method :p

    there is value in both. usually what i do is start with known scum, look at the potentials, and then do the same thing with the potentials to see if there's overlap.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i'll do it too maybe thursday night
    Quote from Cythare »
    I didn't actually know that.

    Well, I'm already pretty deep into this (am currently on page 34), so I'll keep going.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    that's why i said you are prophylaxis 2.0
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ah, cool.

    So, I did the thing. Most of the specific posts that stood out to me were Axelrod, Anak, and Manders's posts.

    Anaklusmos ||||||--------------
    Axelrod ||||---------
    Cyan ||||||-------------
    Cythare ||||||||||----------
    DoTArchon/TheIceMan |||||||||||||||-----
    Manders ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||---------------------------------------------------
    shadowlancerx |||||||||||||||-------------------
    Tammy/Seppel ||||||||||||||||--------------------------
    tomsloger |||||||||||||||||||||||------------------------------------
    Wildfire393 ||||||||||---------------

    Bur |-
    Sir Chris ||||--------
    Tordeck
    D_V ||||||||||||----------------------

    Iso ||||||---------


    The specific posts were:
    Axelrod: 1338, 1704, 2163, 2305
    Manders: 1641, 1876, 2159
    Anak: 2296
    Wildfire: 2428

    The Axelrod ones stuck out to me because he mostly avoids directly interacting with GJ and somewhat cases him but always ends up with a soft conclusion on him and doesn't commit. The last post is a bit different because he cases Wildfire, but the timing is pretty bad - he does it after momentum has decidedly shifted towards GJ.

    The Manders ones are important to me because they're things that Manders calls out as important to follow up on for herself later and then she just doesn't.

    Anak's post looks bad to me mostly because of the language "since I am firmly on the scum!WF train, GJ has to be town". His language choice doesn't read as him believing that Wildfire is scum and GJ is town, but that because he has to choose one to be town and one to be scum, and he's chosen Wildfire to be scum, GJ is town. The conviction isn't there.

    Wildfire's post stuck out because he kinda goes away for a while and doesn't address GJ that much for a while until he finds something he seems to think is a problem, but it's relatively minor in the grand scheme of problems with GJ.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Hey, did you have a chance to do the analysis last night?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Also we've got like ~6 hours before Night's over.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    nah i've been busy. but i'w WFH today so i'll do it now
    Quote from Megiddo »
    there's no real rush unless i'm going to die anyway :p
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, fair. I just figured from your initial PM at the start of Night that you wanted to discuss for a bit going into the Day?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Err, before going into the Day.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i guess

    i'm generally lazy at Nights. you might as well just wait until the Day.

    i mean it's different because you're here i suppose. what's the likelihood that I die?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Sorry, was working on wedding thank yous, but we now know the answer to your question at least.

    I think I'm just going to post what I shared above and if you want to supplement it, go for it. Also, still torn on who the right vig choice is, but I did use all my empowerment to activate my trap card daykill.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    well, now that i haven't died I'll be diving into it. Dude has a lot of posts.

    ANA ||||----------------
    AXE |||------
    CYA |||||||||||-----
    CYT ||||||||----
    MAN ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||--------------
    TOM ||||||||||||||-------------
    SEP |||||||||||||||||------------------
    TIM ||||||||||||-------
    WIL ||||||||||||||---------------------

    D_V |||||||||||||||||||-----
    BUR ||------
    CHR ||||||||||||||--------
    ISO |||||||||||-----
    SHA ||||||||||||||----------
    TOR ||-----

    Early townreads of Manders, SC, Axel. Two posts later he has some scumreads (Anak, Shadow, CFOX*, Iso)
    *Who is CFOX?

    Seppel/Tammy probably notscum due to how TCM reacted to this play.

    TS list here. Largely consistent with earlier stances.

    Further scumteam picks. Tom/Anak/Wildfire/[Cythare/bur/tordeck]

    DEEP WOLF theory deployed as well.

    One more T/S list.

    I'm unclear where the tom scumread came from.

    More scumreads. I do link most of the posts like this that I find, btw, since they are very valuable. Here he says bur-anak-wildfire-tom and then Iso/Cyan as scumteam pick.

    MORE. and MORE.

    ---
    Interested in your thoughts before I post this.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Is that just the other half where GJ interacted? I'm reading through your thing right now and am also drafting up my post with the half I did - I'm finding links to all the posts I referenced above and typing up some questions to clarify some things.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Cfox is the guy Wildfire replaced. It's not in the OP for some reason.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    yeah those are all TCM's posts. same as we did with Iso, just with TCM.

    Looking for overlaps of weirdness is where we want to be now.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ok. I didn't actually do that part for Iso, though, since I didn't realize it was part of the thing, and you never shared it with me.

    I also think that him grouping Iso and Cyan means that Cyan is likely town, since scum usually pair a townie with a scum person for these kinds of things?

    I'm also not sure where the tom scum read came from. I don't recall him ever really explaining it, but I can look back.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    wait, this is exactly the same as what I did with iso lol
    Quote from Cythare »
    No, I get that. I just meant that I thought you said you'd share that with me so we could dive into it together.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    oh right, did I not?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    this is the post I started writing about it:

    So first, I asked about this because I was halfway through doing my own when you posted it. I like to do these when scum flip. It's best after two dead scum but can work with one. I suspect that Iso may know how to trick this but it also helps in a few other ways.

    So here's my chart:
    ANA |||—--
    AXE ||||
    CYA ||||-----
    CYT |-
    MAN |||||||------
    TOM |||||||||||-----
    SEP ||||||||||||-------

    TIM ||||||-
    WIL |||-----

    D_V ||||||---
    BUR ||—
    CHR |||||||-
    SHA ||-
    TCM |||||||||----
    TOR ---

    GHO |
    VOX |
    PRO ||

    And yours, formatted to match mine:

    ANA ||||------
    AXE ||-----
    CYA ||||-----------
    CYT |||-----
    MAN |||||||||||-------------------
    TOM |||||||||||||||----------------
    SEP ||||||||||||||||---------
    TIM ||||||||-
    WIL |-----

    DV ||||||||||||----
    Bur
    CHR |----
    SHA ||||||--
    TCM ||||||||----------------
    TOR ||

    Our counting methods were clearly different, which is fine, but our overall patterns match so that's good. The only actual outlier is Chris maybe?

    So for those who don't remember what this is supposed to be showing, for my counting a | is a "major" interaction such as a quote or a vote, and a - is for a minor mention. In sum, talking to vs. talking about. The theory is that scum have a harder time interacting directly with buddies in a natural way, and thus will default to talking ABOUT them instead of talking TO them.

    So, with this chart you can often catch town and scum by looking for players that the dead scum did not interact with much at all, and for players that the dead scum talked about but didn't talk to. This is not foolproof obviously (for example, hard bussing activities that involve direct arguing), but it's a good way to start looking.

    Mindmelding both of our charts and being agnostic I would pick to look into a little further the following:
    Anak, Axelrod, Cyan, Cythare, Shadow, TCM, Wildfire

    Anak is both significantly lower than others in gross interactions and has a high proportion of mentions to direct interactions. Additionally, I think the man is scum anyway.

    (brief aside, I love that TextEdit on OS X uses iCloud now. I just switched this note from my laptop to my bigger laptop instantaneously so that I can keep working it on the machine that’s better for actual work (I have an external hooked up to it).)
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, I am pretty new to this, so I had some trouble drawing the line on major v minor. That said, in many cases, if a direct interaction didn't look directly related to the game or was solely mechanical, I generally demoted them, since that's something I felt scum would be comfortable doing.

    Also, notably, I didn't actually read the whole thread, so if there was back and forth that didn't involve actual quoting, there's a chance I missed stuff that was actually direct interaction. I like your list of reviewees.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    it is subjective. the main goal of the exercise is to actually read the scum's posts. looking for patterns helps narrow down suspects but the real meat is in the actual posts.

    Like, going purely on patterns, both Bur and Tordeck should be scum, right? but they aren't. you have to use your brain.

    That's phase two.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Also, shadow is dead.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh, that makes sense. I'll go back and do that...some time between now and Monday evening. I'm not sure what my availability is like this weekend to sit down at my computer and just read.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i've got the fire so i'm going to be putting time in, but you do what you can.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Can do.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    also i didn't actually try to empower you, if you were curious.
    Quote from Cythare »
    People really want to move fast now, it seems.

    idk if I should vig Axelrod or Anak.

    I figured you didn't empower me. It wasn't what I asked about. I didn't actually get confirmation of my ability working, I just assumed based on not having been told it didn't.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    oh gotcha

    No interest in the wildfire vig?

    hitting anak would be good since we're just going to lazily lynch him Today and we won't get good wagon or interaction analysis out of it. if you kill him you'll force the town to think Today.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm not as convinced on him as Axelrod/Anak at this point. I agree that killing Anak will Force the town to be less lazy, which is always a good thing.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'll just wait for him to show up first.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I PMed Az to open up a chat with Anak so that's at least good to go when it's time
    Quote from Megiddo »
    just shoot him
    Quote from Megiddo »
    <embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/k4pbfT5pupc&quot; type="application/x-shockwave-flash" data="http://www.youtube.com/v/k4pbfT5pupc&quot; width="425" height="350" movie="http://www.youtube.com/v/k4pbfT5pupc&quot; wmode="transparent"/>
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Shoot wildfire.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I already submitted my daykill for Anaklusmos.
    Quote from Cythare »
    What changed your stance on him?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Or manders.

    Remember when I said you have to do the reverse when you do the IA? Well, I did:
    CYA ||||||-------
    CYT |-
    MAN ||||||||||||||||—----
    MEG |
    SEP ||||||||---
    TIM ||-
    TOM |||||-----
    WIL ||||---



    BUR |---
    D_V |||------
    ISO |||||-----
    SHA ||-
    TCM |||||||----
    TOR |-----

    SIL -

    T/S list. These reads are… largely mysterious to me.

    This is not the chart of somebody who is buddies with Iso and TCM. Reading his posts I feel like he actually tried to interact with people. He's never approached anybody like scum would. Fairly sure he's town.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i would love to be wrong about this (thus being right before) though.

    it should make the last(?) scum very easy to find.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ah. So many of his posts looked scummy, but I see what you're getting at now. Worst case, we won't have him as a distraction any more and the rest of the town will have to take action instead of being lazy. Best case, he's scum and we've gotten 3 down.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    right, yes.

    if you're going to vig any townie, anak is the best one since it'll save us a mislynch.

    we'll see what the flip is though. I've been calling him scum the ENTIRE GAME up until an hour ago so we'll see.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ok, so the reverse interaction analysis is where you ISO someone alive's post and then review for interactions with other living players and dead scum/town, yes?

    If so, I'll dig into that today/tomorrow so that there's at least some more info for you to use even if I end up being the lynch today.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    sure.

    you really don't know where you got empowerment from?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Also you got it during N2? when exactly did it come to you?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I got it in my end-of-night results PM, which told me that my ability was successful, that I'd received a new ability and that I'd gained 3 empowerment. I inferred that 1 of them was from the ability that I gained, but wasn't told where the other 2 came from. I also just confirmed with Azrael that recipients of an empowerment transfer aren't told who/where the empowerment came from.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Is that "sure" an answer to my question?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    right, so that narrows it down. it has to have been from someone who was alive at the beginning of that Day.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yep, which leaves the people alive now, shadowlancerx, and GJ.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i'm good at this game i guess

    are you able to shoot tonight?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Also, let's update this here

    VC 1
    Bur- Iso, Cyan
    Manders - Seppel, TheIceMan, Sir Chris
    Tom - Anak , Axelrod
    Anak - Shadow, GJ
    GJ - Cythare, Tom

    VC 2
    GJ - Cythare, Tom, Sir Chris
    Anak - Shadow, GJ, Cyan
    Manders - Seppel
    Bur- Iso
    Tom - Anak
    Axelrod- DV
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    Tom- TheIceMan

    VC 3
    Manders - Seppel, shadow, Tom
    Wildfire- Manders, Sir Chris, Tordeck
    Anak - GJ, Cyan
    GJ - Cythare
    DV - Wildfire
    Tom - Ana
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    Shadowlancer - TheIceMan

    VC 4
    Tordeck-DV, Cyan, anak, manders, tom
    Bur- GJ, shadow
    Wildfire- Sir Chris, Tordeck
    Manders - Seppel
    Anak - GJ
    Anak -Cythare
    DV - Wildfire
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    Shadowlancer - TheIceMan

    VC 5
    Bur- GJ, shadow, Seppel, Manders, Anak
    Anak-Cythare, Cyan, DV
    Wildfire- Sir Chris, Tordeck
    Tordeck-tom
    DV- Wildfire
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    Shadowlancer- TheIceMan

    VC 6
    Bur- GJ, shadow, Anak, seppel
    Anak-Cythare, Cyan, DV, manders
    Wildfire- Sir Chris, Tordeck
    GJ - TheIceMan, tom
    DV- Wildfire
    Sir Chris- Axelrod

    VC 7
    Bur- GJ, shadow, Anak, seppel
    Tom- Wildfire, Tordeck, Cyan
    Anak-Cythare, manders
    GJ - TheIceMan, tom
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    WF - Sir Chris

    VC 8 (Bur Lynch)
    Bur- GJ, shadow, Anak, seppel, Todeck, Iso, DV, Bur, Manders
    Tom- Wildfire, Cyan
    Anak-Cythare
    GJ - TheIceMan, tom
    Sir Chris- Axelrod
    WF - Sir Chris
    Quote from Megiddo »
    VC 1
    GJ - TIM, Tom
    Anak - Manders, Iso, Cyan
    Wildfire - GJ, Cythare
    Tom- DV
    Tordeck - WF

    VC 2
    Iso - Seppel, TIM, Cyan, Tom
    Anak - Manders, Iso
    Wildfire - Cythare
    Tom- DV

    VC 3
    Iso - Seppel, TIM, Cyan, Tom, Shadowlancer
    Anak - Manders, Iso, cythare
    Tom- DV

    VC 4
    Iso - Seppel, TIM, Cyan, Tom, Anak, Shadowlancer, GJ
    Anak - Manders, Iso, cythare
    Manders- DV

    Empower
    DV - Manders, Manders, Cythare
    TIM - axelrod
    Cythare - DV, shadow
    Wildfire- iso

    VC 4 (iso lynched)
    Iso - Seppel, TIM, Cyan, Tom, Anak, Shadowlancer, GJ
    Anak - Manders, Iso, cythare
    Manders- DV

    Empower
    DV - Manders, Manders, Cythare, Anak
    TIM - axelrod
    Cythare - DV, shadow
    Wildfire- iso, GJ
    GJ - WF
    Quote from Megiddo »
    VC 1
    GJ - Tom, DV, Seppel
    Tom - Cyan

    VC 2
    Wildfire- Seppel, Cyth, MH, DV, Tom, GJ
    GJ - Shadow
    Tom - Cyan
    Manders- Anak
    Seppel - GJ
    Anak - Cyan, MH
    DV- WF

    VC 3
    Wildfire- Cyth, Tom, GJ, Anak
    Anak - MH
    GJ- Cyan

    VC 4
    Wildfire- GJ, Anak
    GJ- Cyth, MH, Cyan, Tom

    VC 5
    Wildfire- GJ,Cyth
    GJ- MH, Cyan, Tammy (per Seppel vote), Tom
    MH - Anak

    VC 6
    Wildfire- GJ,Cyth
    GJ- MH, Cyan, Tammy (per Seppel vote), Tom, Shadow, WF
    MH - Anak

    VC 7
    Wildfire- GJ,Cyth
    GJ- MH, Tammy (per Seppel vote), Tom, Shadow, WF, Cythare, Axelrod
    MH - Anak
    Quote from Cythare »
    I can't activate my daykill tonight - I only have the 1 empowerment I just got from Tammy during the day.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ah ok

    were you the one who got that weird passing empower ability?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    also, thoughts on axelrod at this juncture?

    are you neutral??
    Quote from Cythare »
    I did get the weird passing empower ability, yes.

    Axelrod is town, as I find it unlikely that both him and WF would be scum killing roles, especially since, as you guessed, I am neutral.

    I win when I've connected with all of the living players. I can win alongside either team, but lose if I haven't completed my objectives by the time the town or scum win.

    I still have to connect with:
    -Axelrod
    -Cyan
    -Manders
    -tomsloger

    I have two connections that I can open, and get one additional connection every time a town member dies as previously noted.

    Also I lied about when I got Wildfire's ability. I started with 3 Empowerment and redirected him to myself Night 1, gambling that I could get him to give me empowerment (I was hoping he granted permanent empowerment). I got the 0 ability that you just saw when he flipped. I still have it, since I've been busy doing other things both other Nights. Since I don't have enough empowerment to do anything else, I'm planning to pass it along, but idk who I should give it to.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Before i delve further, are there any amendments you'd like to make to this:

    0 - Initiate a one-way chat with another player or spectator. Can do this at any time, but only once for each town player that's died. Doesn't stop me from using another ability concurrently.
    2 - Motivate a non-kill ability from someone I've initiated a one-way chat with.
    3 - Redirect an ability of someone I've initiated a one-way chat with.
    5 - Gain a daykill the next Day that can be used to kill any player that I've initiated a one-way chat with.
    Quote from Cythare »
    You mean leaving out that I had connected with Wildfire in order to use my ability on him Night 1?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    If that's the only omission, that's fine.

    One more quick Q, why did you ask for "2 or 4" empowers on D1?
    Quote from Cythare »
    So that I'd have the flexibility to either redirect and motivate or kill and motivate N1/N2 as needed.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    so instead you have:

    1) redirected WF to yourself (presumably he stated he was going to use his weirdo ability? who was he originally going to target?)
    2) motivated D_V
    3) activated NK on Anak

    accurate?
    Quote from Cythare »
    1) Yes. I don't know who he was originally going to target, but it was presumably one of his scumbuddies.
    2) Yes.
    3) Sort of - I don't have to lock in who I'm going to kill at Night, but that's the gist of it.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    oh, interesting. so you could have killed anybody Yesterday rather than Anak.

    Well, you've been slippery this game, that's for sure. In case you were wondering why I was being cagey with you the entire game so far, it's because I thought you were scum since D1. And, well, here we are.

    So for you to win, you need two more town deaths/ one town death within {Axelrod, Cyan, Manders, tomsloger}? You could then immediately fire up your three/four connections and win?

    Do you have to survive to win or do you leave the game when you connect everybody?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, that is what I need to win numbers-wise. I have to survive, which is part of why I was being cagey - I was trying not to draw too much attention from either side.

    And yes, I could have killed anyone - I thought that came up in our chatting at the time.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    well, anyone you were talking to, presumably.

    ok so cards on the table your claim makes me very nervous. for two reasons:

    One, you currently want a thing that I don't want (town deaths). If Tom is town and gets NK'd well, it's moot, but outside of that I feel as though you'd need a mislynch to win. This isn't something that makes me want to lynch you right away, but it means that your goal would be the exact opposite of mine.

    Two, I don't necessarily believe that you are a weird survivor. Your role feels like it could be more of a "win and leave" role. That would be fine. Or, it could be a "win and everybody else loses" role. This makes me nervous and makes me want to lynch you ASAP.

    I thought of a small third thing, which I've now forgotten. I might remember it later.

    You have been playing for the town as far as I can tell, which is good, but in the endgame I'm getting nervous.

    So, given that, what's your strategy for the rest of the game?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Since I had extra chats available, I could initiate a chat and kill anyone.

    Yes, I currently want town deaths. I figure that someone's dying tonight, but given that tonight's NK is likely you or tom I'm 50/50 for being fine.

    I get your concern with my win condition. I don't really feel like this is something that I can do much to assuage.

    My general strategy is to wait to see who dies and go from there. To speak to your first concern, the actual issue isn't necessarily that I want town deaths (since those will likely happen with the NK), but that at this juncture I'm incentivized specifically to not lynch scum tomorrow (assuming there is 1 left). If the NK is inside you/Tammy/DotA, I need the game to get to D6 so that I can accrue enough chats to win.

    I'm not really sure what I should be doing tomorrow, unless I can get a proposal going for discussion and then a no-lynch tomorrow (since I'd get my 2 chats from the 2 NKs).
    Quote from Cythare »
    Oh right, I forgot about Axelrod. If he kills the last scum tonight, then it doesn't matter. If he kills a non-scum that isn't inside you/Tammy/DoTA, then I win in the morning. I don't think he'll kill you, Tammy, or DoTA, so I'm not factoring that into my decision.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Or, I meet the connect with everyone condition and then just have to survive. I guess you'll just have to trust me that I'm not going to win at the detriment of everyone else.
    Quote from Cythare »
    The above also assumes that the NK isn't one of you/Tammy/DotA/me, but I'd expect that it's likely either you or tom. If it's tom, then the above works out, and if it's you, then I'll have to hope that there's a mislynch but then this discussion also won't matter because you'll be dead.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    yeah i mean, there's not much to be done to make me more confident. it's blind trust on my part. to your credit I think you've at least been trying to help out rather than just playing to win, even if you were obvscum to me. :p

    you are also correct. a no-lynch would (probably) achieve the same goal as a mislynch for you. so that's a thing.

    One more question, by proxy from a little birdie. if you were to die Tonight would that empower passing ability thing show up in your flip?
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'd have to ask Azrael, but can do so and get back to you.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Unrelated, if you were in my position, who would you give the empowerment ability to? I'm thinking probably DoTArchon or maybe Axelrod? You and tomsloger are too high-risk for me, and Tammy has her 0 ability to fall back on. I don't want to give it to Manders or Cyan.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i'd give it to axelrod.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Heard back from Az - it won't be in my role PM even if I don't use it, because the PM that is revealed is the original, unmodified role PM.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ahh, this makes sense.

    ok, so gift to axelrod. for #reasons. don't mention it in-thread Tomorrow until he does.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm curious what the reasons are, but I guess I owe you some faith as well.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    don't lynch axelrod :p

    yes, faith in fact
    Quote from Cythare »
    I have no intention of punching Axelrod.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Lynching, even.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    why not, out of curiosity? it would mean you win as far as I can tell
    Quote from Megiddo »
    yo

    cyan's last scum. I just reread the entire game and it's 100% a lock. There's no other candidate that makes sense.

    AXE |----------
    CYA ||||||--
    CYT |||||-------
    MAN ||||||||||||--------
    MEG |||||||---
    SEP ||||||---------
    TIM ||
    TOM ||||||||||||||||-----------


    ANA ||---
    BUR |
    CHR ||-
    D_V ||||||||||--------
    ISO ----
    SHA |||||
    TCM |||||||||------
    TOR ||-

    That Cyan row is deceptive. Wildfire didn't directly interact with the dude until, this is no joke, post 2627. Lock scum IMO. They interacted a lot in the final Day leading up to WF lynch, just like what happened with TCM.

    Also, last chance, be truthful with me on the following questions:

    1. Do you win and cause the rest of us to lose? Or are you actually a weird survivor role?
    2. Have you claimed to be neutral to anybody other than me?

    I will help you win if you are actually a survivor.
    Quote from Cythare »
    There's a decent chance that I don't need Axel dead.

    1. I am actually a weird survivor role. I will not cause everyone to lose and I won't leave the game.
    2. I haven't revealed my alignment to anyone else. Since all my other interactions are one-way, I've occasionally mentioned things to people that I didn't feel needed to be said in the thread, but mostly non-alignment role stuff. I figured that most other people would also not believe I was a survivor, so I didn't want to get strung up "just in case" like I have before as neutral.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Whoops, I skipped past the Cyan part. Wildfire has been weird about not interacting with his buddies until they're about to flip (or in Iso's case, still not at all).

    The only thing giving me pause is Cyan continually saying he's so convinced that WF is going to flip town when he could have bussed him instead once there were 3 vigs.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    alright.

    well, not much to do but wait now.
    Quote from Cythare »
    What are your thoughts on my plan? I'll admit that I'm at least partially motivated by not dying, but if Manders comes out and says that I didn't motivate her, then either she's lying or I am and there are two days to do so (assuming there is no NK). It's probably unlikely that any other scum would shoot into a double-Manders activation. We can then lynch toDay and go into tomorrow with 5 alive.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    I am curious given that she claims that if she removes the scum's ability to kill that they will lose the game.

    So let's see what she says.
    Quote from Cythare »
    This of course assumes that she shows up. Related, I'm wary of empowering Axel. Given my bigger post, this should come as no surprise to you, but if he isn't scum, using his 2 ability will accelerate the game by a day if he misses (making tomorrow Lylo instead of Mylo) if we don't lynch. If we do lynch, it isn't him, and he fires, I guess it doesn't matter to the town. It of course matters to me, since he's highly likely to just take me out.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    That's why my plan required that we get to actual MyLo Tomorrow. A plan with a longer view, while fine, is going to need to not do that.

    I also wanted to see if he really can shoot at 2 empowers. That's surely too strong for scum.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Unless it's one shot for each. Idk though.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    even so.

    I kind of think we should just be lynching Manders today.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I can get behind that. Her post confused me a lot.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Either way, I'm losing if either you or Manders empower Axel, so it's kinda whatever at this point to me.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    looking at the interactions points me at:
    YOU or AXELROD

    looking at the vote counts points me at:
    MANDERS

    Tammy is probably the only one who doesn't get pointed at in some way. her ability is like, dumb? and I liked her progression today (suspicious of me when I pushed a bad argument, not latching on to anything to push a case after I explained; general paranoia). Though she is good, so IDK.

    Seppel didn't really strike me as scum either.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    iso chatting with manders is a Thing
    Quote from Cythare »
    I forgot about the chat.

    I think that Tammy being the last scum is unlikely at this point.

    I'll admit that my preference to lynch Axelrod and then Tammy is largely self-serving, since I know I'm neutral and that means that to me, they're the two options and one involves me dying while the other doesn't.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I recognize that if you can't/don't know I'm neutral, the better play is to lynch Manders, let Axelrod shoot me, and then lynch Axelrod tomorrow.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    thoughts on recent posts
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm also curious about your question to Axel about knowingly aligning with scum, unless he's trying to imply that you might be the last scum and we're coordinating that way.

    I'm also now confused about Manders' ability, but my understanding is that it removes the ability to kill, and if the Mafia can't kill, then we all win? Note that this is different from how she framed it earlier in the game, where she seemed to imply that if she managed to target the Mafia making the kill, that would result in a win for the town. I may have misread it when she said "if this makes the mafia unable to kill" to imply "if they can't kill that Night".

    I'm assuming that her statement about me winning too is because this is an issue with Az's wording, which hasn't always been the clearest, but I wasn't actually sure if I'd win too until she said that.

    And now I'm kinda paranoid that I won't, but at this point, there are multiple avenues where I don't win and I think this is less of an issue for me.

    I guess the TLDR is that I'm fine with lynching Manders. But! I'm still going to request that you not empower Axelrod, since he's 100% going to kill me tonight. He's right that I would steer his kill away from me if I could, because it's in my best interest to live, but even with Manders' empower, I can only motivate tonight.

    How do you feel about the following:
    Lynch Manders
    Manders empowers wherever (currently me, but we also can't necessarily expect the lynch to play ball)
    You and I empower DoTA so he can IC
    I don't really care about the rest of the empowerment.

    I think it's reasonable to assess that in the scenario where the last scum are likely in Axel/Manders/myself, we lynch one and then don't empower either of the other two.

    Otherwise I can campaign for Tammy's empowerment, and if I get hers and Manders, then Axel can be cross with me for playing to my win condition instead of just happily eating a shot to the face.
    Quote from Cythare »
    That post was a mess that contradicts itself. This is a very confusing and concerning endgame.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    yep lots of variables!

    i still think you and axel can't be scum!

    i really hope you aren't or I'll be furious with Az!

    why does axelrod's drawback exist in a game with scum WF? but he proved he has a shot so!

    and so did you!

    Quote from Megiddo »
    unless WF's ability was supposed to be balanced as less strong as it ended up being? the risk associated is very high obviously.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    i have some suspicions of activity stalking az on that, but that's an OOG thing... not really germane to bring up
    Quote from Cythare »
    Yeah, I guess that Wildfire's ability could have been assumed to balance around the risk of him losing it instead of how it played out.

    For the purposes of discussion, scum!Axel obviously wouldn't have a cheaper shot that empowered his own team. He could, however, have two shots and have been trying to save the cheaper one for later or have some extra empowerment from his buddies that he could put towards a second shot and only have to ask for 2 down the road.

    The truth is out there
    Quote from Megiddo »
    yo that's a great smilie lol

    is it The truth is out there ?

    yes... yes.

    god, weird. i hate this. let's hear from manders.


    I'm actually set on:
    empower dota
    NOT empower axelrod or you or anybody else
    lynch manders, dota uses IC

    see what happens, come back tomorrow
    Quote from Cythare »
    That works for me.
    Quote from Cythare »
    but yeah, this is a *****show of sorts
    Quote from Megiddo »
    my orig plan was to test axelrod's -2.

    but man.
    Quote from Cythare »
    If you test Axelrod's plan and he's telling the truth, I die and then tomorrow is LyLo instead of MyLo, though.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    that was my original plan yes
    Quote from Cythare »
    I couldn't recall if that was part of your plan or not, so it seemed worth bringing up.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    it definitely was lol

    i was trying to tie up all loose ends and win the game. for me.

    ok so seriously what are your thoughts on this manders claim issue.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm conflicted. I guess part of this is because if she's telling the truth, empowering her is a great idea.

    That being said, she's moved her claim about a bit even today. Before, I thought we only won if the player targeted actively tried to NK, and she then made it seem like there would be a win if she just targeted the remaining scum, but then reclarified that it's only a Win if the scum shoots, otherwise it's just a "win" because the scum can't kill any more, but we still have to find him or her.

    I guess the actual issue is that while I'd like for the ability to exist as-claimed, it's moved around a bit, motivating her to use it twice uses up all of her empowerment, and it's easy enough for a scum!Manders to just not kill (or a non-Manders scum to just not kill) and then we're kinda right back to Manders again?

    Also, not lynching Manders today points to myself or Axel. I'm not scum, and you seem convinced enough that Axel isn't scum barring an overevaluation of Wildfire's ability (which I really don't know how to evaluate properly on a power-level scale). Which leaves us with you, who I can't see as scum, Tammy, who nothing points to, and DoTA, who should be resolving himself overnight.
    Quote from Cythare »
    "All of her empowerment" should be "all of our empowerment".
    Quote from Megiddo »
    manders asked for 5 empowers consistently throughout the game
    Quote from Cythare »
    She did, yes.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    it's like, consistent approach to the claim

    BUT THEN SUDDENLY bam spaghetti all over today.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I actually loled at my desk.

    But yeah. And now she's...disappeared?
    Quote from Cythare »
    Not to say that disappearing is in and of itself damning. It's just that she kinda needs to respond.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    haha they didn't give you off on president's day
    Quote from Cythare »
    Nope, don't have the day off. We just get the big New Years/Memorial/Independence/Labor/Thanksgiving+Friday/Christmas.

    And then MLK day.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    ok so... can we just lynch Manders now
    Quote from Cythare »
    jfc this claim

    yes

    I am mobile now but can when I get home?
    Quote from Megiddo »
    as usual i am curious to see how others respond
    Quote from Cythare »
    Seeing as how Manders empowered Axelrod to be able to shoot tonight, would you be interested in moving your empower back to me so that I can redirect? I'd understand if the answer is "no", but figured it can't hurt to ask.

    Currently, Tammy, Axel, you, and me are all empowering DoTA and he just needs the two.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    Axelrod sent me a message asking to set up a chat through you (as he can only one-way to me)

    as a first response please tell him that I told you to review my most recent post in the thread.

    Quote from Megiddo »
    er, just tell him to review the post. you know what I mean.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Will pass along.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    in the interest of advancing the game state, who's your pick for scum and why?

    axelrod is also curious about that, so you should pass that info along to him too. after the first part.
    Quote from Cythare »
    First part was passed along right after I responded.

    I need to reread Tammy/Axel/you this afternoon. I locked in on Axel because he hadn't actually done anything and I didn't like how he approached my claim, but I'll review all of the possibilities.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I'm ignoring the DoTA possibility because he's either revealed as town tomorrow or he's a liar. That slot sorts itself out.
    Quote from Azrael »
    Cyth/Megs - Be advised that PM quotation is not permitted, paraphrase only, just like in the main thread.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    haha he's mad at me now

    you should also tell him that I am not going to copy and paste entire messages as I am not sure if that's kosher or not. I can check with az. if he knows it's ok then that's one thing.

    for context to above he wants to be quoting messages back and forth rather than relying on relay. which makes sense.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ah. Well, yeah. Makes sense that you can't do that.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    please tell axelrod that:

    1) i'm not going to discuss his issue with me. the only response i have to that is for him to read my post in the thread.

    2) i am in agreement with his current decision on Night action.
    Quote from Cythare »
    Does 2) involve me dying? I just want to know if it's actually worth me spending my afternoon rereading if I'm just going to lose anyways.
    Quote from Cythare »
    I passed your message along.
    Quote from Megiddo »
    OK cool

    Axel's actually between a couple of options, I think which includes you and me? And somebody else, presumably tammy?

    I fed you false information... wasn't sure if I could trust you to pass things along completely.

    So now that I see that you're actually doing so, you should let Axel know the general gist of this PM.

    Quote from Cythare »
    Cool. As you may have surmised, I didn't end up rereading because I took the large pause after my post to mean that I was getting killed.
    Quote from Cythare »
    ok gave him the rundown
    Quote from Cythare »
    Uhhhh
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    So, a few things:

    I didn't actually plan to claim neutral until Meg asked if I was. I was planning to just kill Meg N4 instead of Tom, but this line seemed more fun, if not arguably the worse percentage play, so I opted to go for it. No regrets.

    I forgot that I had an unblockable kill, but Bur's and D_V's deaths made it largely irrelevant.

    I wanted to post all of my chats, but I can't find my wireless mouse, and multi-quoting ~300 PMs is going to take too long, so I'll paste that in tomorrow morning.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    RIP me.

    I can save both of you the wait - I was the last scum and this game contains no neutrals.

    I'm...frankly surprised that I survived this long (although it was in part due to a modkill), but I can't say that I regret my play decisions for the most part. Will post more after dinner (including PM chat conversations).
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Who writes partial hours in decimal points, though, right?
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    compelling defense!
    I don't have a more compelling defense, because my actions are what they are. I can only point at the issues that I've already shown re:Axel and hope you see what I've pointed out about him. Shrugs
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Mistborn Mafia - Day 2: The Broken Skies
    Responding to prod, but won't provide content until tomorrow.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    You're right. I sent TIM's connection earlier than I was supposed to be able to do, similar to how Seppel accidentally connected twice. I forgot that this had happened.

    Re: Wildfire - I hid it because the only reason I had to send it was entirely selfish, and I didn't think you'd trust me at that point if the reasons provided was completely selfish.

    If this is enough to push you towards voting me, I understand - there isn't really anything I can do at this point to defend against these points.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Could be. We discussed this at length earlier on, but I am standing by what was said - you had to have faith in me before when you were worried I'd just end the game. The least I could do is reciprocate. Also makes sense as to why Axel is angry that I didn't say anything to him last Night.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I'm also around for at least a bit tonight.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Ok, so I just did D1 before. We'll do D2 now. Hopefully more?

    D2, we open with a statement about Sir Chris which seems like awkward distancing "I was calling him scum so clearly I wouldn't have killed him". He does pivot towards Wildfire here, but it isn't exactly a strong push, and well within the realm of prodding a buddy instead of getting ready to bus. Then we have a couple posts stretched out over several days where he states that he hasn't updated his lists, is busy, and doesn't mind that Tordeck was killed. Calls WF's ability "overpowered".

    His next post is him getting "hung up on the very first vote" of the Bur wagon (which is his buddy GJ). He goes through the process of reviewing his vote and some surrounding context, says it's "not great", then says he has no other issues with GJ, doesn't make a vote, and then uses this opportunity to empower TIM. This whole "case my buddy but come out Don't mind me, I'm just sitting here " is pretty bad.

    Disappears again and comes back to make a jab at Anak which looks a lot like testing the waters for an Anak lynch. Makes a neutral mention of the Iso lynch before Night.

    D3:
    First post back is a semi-promise to do more content. He also asks about the GJ quickwagon here, but this is after Tom's already explained his vote, and the way it's phrased looks suspiciously like fishing.

    To his credit, he does actually start doing some VCA shortly afterwards. He reiterates his "not great" on GJ, uses the Anak assessment to also subtly mudsling regarding his post rate, and reiterates that he "doesn't like Seppel". He states that the worst are (unsurprisingly) GJ, Seppel, and Anak, but then walks it back again by saying "it's only one datapoint".

    I imagine that his next 2 posts here is him freaking out about his scumbuddy's choice to potentially 1-for-1 with D_V and out himself. Seppel clearly agrees with this assessment.

    Quote from Seppel »
    Wow Axelrod is scum.
    Quote from Seppel »
    Considering DV is confirmed townie #1 and has been since practically day 1, no duh it's what happened.

    This was obvious the moment D3 started.

    If you were town you'd know this already.


    When Seppel confronts him about this, he more or less dismisses Seppel out of hand, but does go out of his way to engage someone that he's been calling scum in a way that doesn't read like a townie interacting with a scumread. His response to "why didn't you recognize WF as openly claiming scum and that D_V is 100% town" is basically "I want to leave my options open but I've definitely had D_V trending upwards" worded more fancifully.

    He does part of the Iso lynch, where he assesses Seppel's vote ("he's not necessarily not on Iso's team"), TIM (is Town, but given that he empowered TIM, this is unsurprising), and Cyan (who he says is probably town, but this would sure be a great time for scum!Cyan to bus), once again subtly leaving his options open.

    After D_V's claim, he fishes for info on me while casting a bit of shade on D_V's read of Tom. We then have some interaction with shadowlancer which is NAI, and a post where he starts actually pushing for a Wildfire lynch but by this point, Wildfire is in hammer range and it's an easy stance to take. As noted by Cyan shortly afterwards, this is a really basic post. Granted Cyan also thinks WF is town. Axel pushes WF for doing things unilaterally because "DV was town read by 'a lot' of people", yet earlier in the game, he used the exact opposite argument to refute a similar claim stating that "majority can be wrong". He's using both sides of the argument when it best suits him.

    At his next catchup after some NAI posts, he seems frustrated that Seppel is claiming confirmed town, but doesn't actually address again what his issues are if there still are any (he makes it seem like there are, though), again fishes for info on me and questions my alignment (less relevant now), confirms that he is "sure about WF's alignment" (still no vote), and sets the groundwork for the vig claim.

    He does follow through on finishing the Iso VCA, but again just waffles/fencesits. Every time he does analysis, he concludes with a fencesit.

    He does another late push on Wildfire here which Seppel hilariously calls out as a "great bus". Around this time, he also says he won't support Seppel's plan "because he's a lying-liarpants". He's inadvertently dropped Seppel as scum, despite seeming to push this earlier in the day. Myself and Manders both ask about this. His answer is, once again, vague. He's "not reading [Seppel] as Town" (Seppel claimed non-town), but is hesitant to call him Mafia. So the result? He's "ignoring him" (which is actually continually trying to push him and/or discredit him).

    Finally, in the 11th hour, he finds a reason to doubt his strong WF scum read, asks GJ one question about why he didn't address the missed NK due to his claim (that he's a BP that can also grant BP), and then finds this enough to finally place a vote and hammer GJ. Good thing we managed to let Wildfire survive another day!

    Ok, that's all I have time for now.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I've been mostly phoning it in/working late (job fair yesterday was cool, though!). I'll dig into more today.

    Also, not a convoluted web of lies, but w/e.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    As in "when zomgarcwind replaced TheIceMan, not when DoTArchon replaced zomgarcwind".
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    zomgarcwind, not DoTArchon. Too many replacements in that slot.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Mistborn Mafia - Day 2: The Broken Skies
    hello everyone

    Weekend was busy playing Magic. Probably catching up tomorrow at this point, but I'll also likely spend most of my Mafia time finishing up another game until that's done.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Alright, so let's go through this.

    Why wouldn't I say the scum/neutral thing? I was trying to explain that that was more of my Town approach because I don't like being Town.

    You're describing why my approach with Wildfire was not Town. We're all in agreement that I'm not Town. As Neutral, why would I open myself up for a 1-for-1? Wildfire didn't know that I could redirect, only that he had been redirected to me. I can't speak for his decision to not claim a redirect, but I didn't want to claim that I had redirected him, and outside of outing that I was a redirector, I would have no reason to know that it was his ability that had been redirected to me. I decided to approach Wildfire from a different angle, because I didn't want to out that it was me that redirected him. I have zero interest in setting up a 1-for-1 with scum, because my death doesn't help me at all.

    Re D_V: I did not know he was a doc, no. But it was a pretty reasonable assumption. Why wouldn't I just shoot D_V as scum and say I motivated him? D_V would have still likely communicated his motivation to Tomsloger and I'd been able to still get some credit there.

    Again, it's not on me to contradict him - I have nothing to gain from taking this avenue to push his lynch.

    I'll walk you through all of my connections and when they happened:
    D1: Connect with Meg, because I started with a single connection just like everyone else did. Bur is lynched and flips Town (net +1 charge, 1 charge total)
    N1: Connect with Wildfire (-1), Sir Chris is NKed (+1). (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
    D2: Connect with D_V (-1), Tordeck killed and flips town (+1), connect with TheIceMan (-1). Lynch is scum. (net -1 charge, 0 charges total)
    N2: No deaths. (0 charges)
    D3: D_V killed and flips town (+1), connect with Seppel (-1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 0 charges total)
    N3: shadowlancer is killed (+1). (net 1 charge, 1 charge total)
    D4: Connect with Anak (-1), kill Anak who flips town (+1). Lynch is scum. (net 0 charges, 1 charge total)
    N4: Cyan and Tomsloger are both killed (+2). (net 2 charges, 3 charges total).
    D5: Connect with Manders and Axelrod (-2). (net -2 charges, 1 charge left).

    At this point, all of the living players are connected with. Meg, this does mean that I miscounted when we were hashing things out N4. I could have connected with everyone D5 regardless of who ended up killed. I got confused because when DoTA replaced zomgarcwind, I sent him a separate PM and counted this separately, and didn't actually bother to ask Azrael for an updated count because I assumed I was correct.

    I've discussed connecting with Meg with Meg at length - it would be inherently scummy to decline this and I didn't want the heat and to have to claim early on.

    Yes, Wildfire didn't claim that his ability existed. Again, I chose to push him via alternate means.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Your assumptions based on Wildfire's claims are just as faulty as you claim mine are. You're taking a very different understanding of "during the day" than I am. There was no risk I could see to myself. I can't speak to Wildfire's choices. It's not lies, though, not that you'll admit to subpar choices as a possibility in this position.

    Let's go through Axelrod's posts, then. I recognize this is a narration of events, but there are some good things mixed in with the bad, so it's worth bringing them up too.

    After a couple posts that are NAI, you get hung up on the Mafia empowerment rule here, and go out of your way to make it known. There's another post about mechanics, and then you get hung up on Seppel. You cast doubt on his claim in a way that that attempts to undermine his usefulness to the town, questions whether or not it's true, and then do nothing with it. You use this half-opinion to cast shade on D_V in your next post, and engage with Sir Chris over some stuff. Iso goes painfully out of his way to interact with you here, and you have a halfhearted response that puts off having to publicly share thoughts. Your follow-up with D_V looks less like shading him, but you continue to awkwardly dance around Seppel without actually doing anything about it. For someone calling me out on not engaging, your attempt to do so looks extremely awkward and contrived. You make up with Chris and then continue to doubt Seppel but still not do anything with it.

    You then do another mechanics post, promise to do a reread to avoid having to provide reads, another mechanics post, another reread promise. Then, finally, thoughts. All of your buddies are in null (or not on the list since the person WF replaced had done nothing), which is interesting. You state reasons you don't like GJ but it's balanced out by him empowering you. You also only state things you don't like about Iso but leave him out of your scummy/lean scummy reads. This here is Axel's first big post other than his reads list that gives insight. He spends some time on Chris still, but this is neither here nor there, I think? Could be from either mindset. After some notes about shadow, Manders, and WF, he focuses on Seppel again. He states that Sep could be scum outright, but still does little, then blames Sep for not engaging him. He also calls me out here for low content, so I have to cede that to him.

    This is a point that indicates he might not be scum, since he speaks out against claiming info, but it's another mechanically-oriented statement and fairly easy to call out. He spends some more time talking about empowering, then chats about D_V's outing of claiming neutral to Tom, which is fine - handled better than the Sep one. He tells Iso to stop with catchup posting, then briefly reviews Anak before Bur self-hammers.

    This is just D1, but I don't really have any more time to go over his later days until Monday. He focuses on Seppel without actually taking a stand or directly questioning him, then later says he's "openly speculating that he's scum" and blames Seppel. However, this looks mostly like neutral-hunting, given the actual conviction not present. He then blames Seppel for the lack of engagement. This is really the big thing here other than a lot of mechanical focus.

    @Meg: If you have any questions for me as you read through this weekend, I'll try to check as I can between rounds/on break.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 March 17
    Hey guys, let's keep it cool and not attack each other. Thanks!
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Card Æsthetics Evaluation Thread
    Quote from Nivvius »
    Quote from wtwlf123 »
    OG foil Greaves.

    Beta Sol Ring, OG Crypt.

    Beta or arena foil Counterspell.

    Thanks! I actually didn't think much about beta, I forgot how much I like the look of the old cards.

    One more. What about Sword of Feast and Famine? Pack foil or Judge promo?
    What are the editions of your other swords? If your Sword of Fire and Ice and Sword of Light and Shadow are judge promos, I'd get the matching old-border Judge promo. If your swords are MMAs, then I'd get the matching artwork/border for the pack foil. If they're DS, then I'd probably get the pack foil because having only one old border Sword would bother me.
    Posted in: The Cube Forum
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    If you're mostly planning to review Sat/Sun, know that my response time for questions will be pretty slow due to the weekend-long tournament I already mentioned elsewhere.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I mean, I guess the fear makes sense, but it could have come from either alignment. If I shoot you, you lose as the last scum.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Obviously that isn't what I got, though.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I thought it was.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Quote from dkingsland967 »
    Quote from VidarThor »
    Olli is in the sett. But taking up a mythic slot. :-\



    https://twitter.com/ElaineChase

    Olivia is WAY too powerful in limited to be downgraded to rare.

    If your opponent casts this and you don't kill her immediately, you probably lose.
    This. She should be mythic or have been excluded from the set.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Axelrod »
    You just quoted him, Cyth. He was strongly implying if nothing else, that he had no empower and needed 1 ("a single") point to use this mysterious ability. And he promised to use "it" if given it. Come one. I suppose he could have started with some, but still needed one more to achieve his ability, but either way, that doesn't leave him with left over empower to be doing something else on N1.

    You're also ignoring the return on investment argument. How were you realistically expecting to net more than the three empower you were spending on this venture. That's a huge amount to be gambling with with very little info. about what you might get back from it. Completely aside from the "risk of death" part.
    Given that I asked for "2 or 4" empowerment with the intention of that being enough for me to empower 2 abilities, I don't necessarily follow the logic. Also, it makes perfect sense to me that Wildfire would have wanted to reserve any empowerment that he already had for what his other ability and imply that he needed the 1 empowerment, even if he already had it. Also, I addressed your question about return on investment two Days ago. Given the existence of roles granting permanent empowerment, I was hoping to trade 3 regular empowerment for permanent empowerment. It would have been worth it at the trade of 3 regular empowerment for 1 permanent empowerment. I also figured I could do what I ended up doing to accrue more empowerment later on if it didn't pan out.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Did you know he only had the 1 empowerment, though?
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I didn't know he only had 1 empowerment. I figured he had a nonzero starting empowerment, since I did and only had a sample size of my own PM.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    There's no need to convince you. Azrael had confirmed to me that Night and Day actions can both be activated with sufficient empowerment, so I didn't see why I shouldn't go for his empowerment ability.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    My ability redirects Night actions, so unless Wildfire had been lying (which he had no reason to, and we now know he wasn't), so there wasn't risk involved. Other than the risk, in retrospect, that I could have been NKed if he'd performed the scum's NK, but that didn't cross my mind at the time.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    cythare what are your thoughts on Axelrod's posts from last night?
    I was very skeptical about his fearmongering about my empowerment – it looked like an attempt to get you to quicklynch with him. He then says it’s bad that you hesitated, but…you could have just hammered me and won. I guess he explained this in a way with the vig/scum showdown thing, but I’ve also never seen a case where this isn’t just a scum win.

    His post on my "silence" was also a weird attempt at a smear. If I’m trying to help the town, why would I message anything to the person I think is the last scum? He wouldn’t have seen me message anything to you.

    And his hypothetical is just that – hypothetical. It didn't actually prove or show anything.

    Quote from Axelrod »
    I'll also reiterate another point I made earlier. No way - just no way - does Cyth. choose to "re-direct" Wildfire to himself on N1, after WF has announced he has an ability that could result in his death which he was promising to use that night. How insane would Cyth. have to be to do that? Yes, WF also said he had an ability that could give someone Empower. He never said it was the same ability or how much empower it would give. And Cyth's re-direct itself (he claims) cost three. What exactly kind of return on investment was Cyth hoping to get out of that? And at what risk?

    He's not that dumb/crazy. It never made any sense.
    I've already explained this part multiple times. Furthermore, there wasn't some crazy amount of risk involved here. Wildfire claimed that his ability that could result in his own death happened during the day:

    Quote from Wildfire393 »
    Empower TheIceMan. Towniest person I see at the moment.

    Also if anyone wants to see me dead, sending me an empowerment would aid that goal. I have use for a single empowerment point that can result in my death, and if you give it to me I promise to use it.
    Quote from Wildfire393 »
    Quote from D_V »

    But you're not counterclaiming the Bodygaurd?


    I am not. My ability is different than his and takes place during the day.
    The second quote was posted ~2 hours after the first where he claimed that he had the ability.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Quote from Megiddo »
    axelrod both and he have an extra kill. that argument isn't really valid, unless i'm misunderstanding your point.

    You are slightly misunderstanding. I mean, from where you're sitting (and incidentally from where I'm sitting) the scum got 2 roles with extra killing power in this game. That's kind of ridiculous off the top, but, both WF and Cyth's roles at least had some kind of restrictions on them. WF had to do his out in public and there was at least a chance his target could kill him first. Cyth had to "connect" to someone first, and then it cost (5?) empower to do. And it was also public? I'm not sure about that last one. But I'm just a regular vigilante.

    The thing that puts it into the realm of stupid, though, is the idea that in addition to 2 scum extra killing roles, if you believed Cyth, there was also a "Neutral" killing role that can win with the scum, and the Town had ZERO killing roles. That's what you have to believe the set-up was to believe Cyth.
    Given that you've only killed once, it isn't outside the realm of possibility that your role had a restriction that you never divulged or had to account for.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Quote from dkingsland967 »
    There is only a very, very small collection of cards that can fit between Tarmogoyf and Thragtusk at 142.

    Elves and Thallids aren't a thing in this set, so all the Tel-Jilad and Thallid/Thelonite stuff can be tossed out.

    We're probably looking at either Terra Stomper at rare or Terrifying Presence at common.
    I could see Tel-Jilad Justice, since we don't have any artifact removal yet. Otherwise, it could also be Terastodon, Thornscape Battlemage (although I'll admit this would be weird), or Thornweald Archer to have a reach blocker for green.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    There were supposed to be quotes around "believe", but my keyboard is *****ty.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Megiddo »
    axelrod both and he have an extra kill. that argument isn't really valid, unless i'm misunderstanding your point.
    He's saying that if I'm scum, it's 2 scum killing roles and 1 town killing roles, but if he's scum, it's 2 scum killing roles and 1 neutral killing role, and that he doesn't believe the latter to be possible.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Axelrod »
    I'm just quoting myself now.
    Oh, and I'll point out for the doubters still that, given Cyth. has claimed Neutral, for me to be scum it would mean the scum would have had two roles with extra-kills and there was a "neutral" killing role, and the town had none this game. But Cyth. who is "trying to help the Town and not at all simply trying to save his own skin" is voting for me like he believes that was really the configuration here.
    No, I get that. It doesn't actually answer my question. Given that you didn't prove your 2-empower shot, you being a 4-empower killer v me being a 5-empower killer is not that much different. I get what you're saying about the composition of town v scum v neutral killing roles, but given the other medley of roles in both parties, and the statement that roles might have been randomized, you're leaning on an assumption that doesn't have to be true to drive my lynch home.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on [CUSTOM SET] Modern Masters 2017 [11/249]
    This is a custom user-generated set. For discussion of the actual Modern Masters 2017 Edition release, please visit the Rumor Mill. This thread has been locked and renamed to reduce confusion.
    Posted in: Custom Set Creation and Discussion
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Question for you, Axelrod. What percentage of your saying that I'm scum is due to me revealing that I was Neutral? Like, now, obviously, I'm your only out after Meg's play last night and not just hammering, but before that.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    You mean since I claimed? I agree that Meg isn't the last scum, so you're right, I should just vote for you and then let Meg come to the right conclusion here.

    Vote Axelrod
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    No, I'm not implying you should have shot last Night. I'm saying that you should have shot the Night before.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    There's one slot left between Boros Signet and Dimir Signet, since we don't have #218. Mishra's Bauble is out.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Looks like Tarmogoyf made the cut again as the second green mythic. Updated crunch with that and also a bunch of splicers and other assorted things from today's Mothership spoilers.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Quote from Dusk707 »
    so...new questions for everyone. Who won't be getting a mythic? Your options are G, UB, and BR
    I'm expecting a second mono-green mythic and then a Grixis mythic (Nicol Bolas, Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker, or Sedris, the Traitor King...with an outside chance of Thraximundar, I guess?).
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Axelrod »
    @Cyth, if you're trying to help the Town, why were you so completely silent last night? Did you talk with Meg?
    I sent Meg one message of "uhhh", and he didn't respond. I didn't send him anything else after that. I didn't have anything really to say to you.
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Quote from Cythare »
    Was about to go to sleep, but I guess I can stay up a bit longer.

    I've worked with the town as best I could after N1. I really don't know what else to say except that Axelrod didn't do so, and has been pushing on me since I trueclaimed. He's more or less been coasting on this, and didn't even utilize his extra kill that was supposed to clear him and kill me. Here was also no NK that Night.

    I'm not going to plant a vote yet, though. This doesn't need to be rushed and I want tomorrow to do my due diligence.

    I'll just point out, Cyth, that - let's say hypothetically you're telling the complete truth and I'm Town - if I had shot you last night the Town would have lost. Yes?
    I don't really get the point of this question. In this hypothetical, given that I wasn't the NK, if you were truthful, Town, and had the extra shot and took it, Town would have lost, because then there would have been 2 deaths, and you would be in a 2-man endgame with Scum Megiddo.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Was about to go to sleep, but I guess I can stay up a bit longer.

    I've worked with the town as best I could after N1. I really don't know what else to say except that Axelrod didn't do so, and has been pushing on me since I trueclaimed. He's more or less been coasting on this, and didn't even utilize his extra kill that was supposed to clear him and kill me. Here was also no NK that Night.

    I'm not going to plant a vote yet, though. This doesn't need to be rushed and I want tomorrow to do my due diligence.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Hi, I can't Daykill. Since I only had 1 empowerment, I didn't do anything last Night.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on [FAKE] Voice of Resurgence (Mythic)
    Fake mockup, thread locked and archived.
    Posted in: Rumor Mill Archive
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    With Abrupt Decay spoiled at #146, I think we can probably expect 29 cards per color, so I've updated the numbers to reflect that. There are also 14 cards between Abrupt Decay and Domri Rade, which is a lot of space.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Based on the space between Sphinx's Revelation and Sprouting Thrinax we can assume that Spike Jester is in the set. The only other card that fits there is Spined Sliver, but we haven't seen any evidence of Slivers here.

    EDIT: Death's Shadow spoiler confirms that Dark Confidant isn't in the set.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Given that Umezawa's Jitte is banned in Modern, it's almost definitely not going to be reprinted here. Saffi Eriksdotter is crunched out by Rhox War Monk and Sedraxis Specter.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Monastery Mentor is too new to be included, and Baleful Strix isn't Modern-legal. Creeping Tar Pit could be included but would stand out as the only manland in the set.

    EDIT: Do we want to have a section at the bottom in spoilers of cards that are confirmed out of the set?
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    You mean Boseiju, Who Shelters All? That's the other potential land for that slot (if we ignore shenanigans like Buried Ruin which doesn't even make sense with so few artifacts).
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    Quote from Xerzyxs »
    terramorphic expanse and transguild promenade also fit
    These no longer fit now that we know that the missing space is between Selesnya Guildgate and Simic Guildgate. The only other lands that fit there that aren't part of a dual land cycle (but would still be potentially odd, since most are part of cycles) are Shelldock Isle, Shinka, Bloodsoaked Keep, Shizo, Death's Storehouse, and Seraph Sanctuary.

    EDIT: Added path to Exile and Inquisition of Kozilek.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Modern Masters 2017 Name and Number Crunch
    That defeats the purpose of forum discussion, though. This is how it's been done here for a while, and it's a good way to have the source and discussion in one place.

    EDIT: And yes, it's likely that a lot of the cards after Woolly Thoctar are hybrid cards, not artifacts. Especially since there are so few slots after Grafdigger's Cage.
    Posted in: The Rumor Mill
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Real life has gotten in the way, so I've been somewhat inattentive. I recognize that I'm likely the lynch for toDay, so I'm kinda tuned out.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Mistborn Mafia - Signups!
    /in
    Posted in: Old Sign-ups
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Can confirm that I did not receive the empowerment.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I mean, I'd be interested in 2 so I don't just die here, but I recognize that's not something I can expect at this point.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Are we all empowering DoTA? He only needed 2 Today. I guess it's safer than elsewhere.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Axel can shoot because I have him 1 empowerment last Night.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Let's be realistic - Axel is shooting me. I don't have the empowerment to redirect it, so have fun in LyLo.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I don't want to No Lynch. Given that there are 8 minutes left, I'm going to move my vote.

    Vote Manders

    Megiddo, I'm going to request that you follow through on empowering DoTA before it's deadline.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Quote from Cythare »
    Ok, so let's say that I'm scum and my buddy Wildfire just flipped scum yesterday. Megiddo shared his suspicion of me in basically his first message last Night. Basically no one else did, or at least was going to be after Wildfire's flip. Why not just kill Megiddo and keep playing along as town instead of doing what I did today? It's high-risk, low-reward, and I wouldn't have needed to answer for nearly any of the things that you questioned me about.

    Meg might have a better read on this, but my suspicion was that, after WF flipped scum, and with my claim, you might have been concerned that the "town" wouldn't believe that both these killing roles could be Town, and decided to claim Neutral to try and head off that suspicion. Didn't you (someone) say that Meg came flat out and asked if you were really "neutral". So maybe you thought you should run with that?

    I don't know. It's not what I'd have done, but apparently no one sees things like I see them.
    I mean, I guess? I don't see why our roles wouldn't be able to both be town.
    Quote from Axelrod »
    Oh, and I'll point out for the doubters still that, given Cyth. has claimed Neutral, for me to be scum it would mean the scum would have had two roles with extra-kills and there was a "neutral" killing role, and the town had none this game. But Cyth. who is "trying to help the Town and not at all simply trying to save his own skin" is voting for me like he believes that was really the configuration here.

    This is a fair point re: the killing role distribution, which is why I've been discussing the Manders lynch as a better approach for toDay with Megiddo in our chat. Note that I never said that I wasn't trying to save my own skin. I'm just trying to do it and help the Town.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Ok, so let's say that I'm scum and my buddy Wildfire just flipped scum yesterday. Megiddo shared his suspicion of me in basically his first message last Night. Basically no one else did, or at least was going to be after Wildfire's flip. Why not just kill Megiddo and keep playing along as town instead of doing what I did today? It's high-risk, low-reward, and I wouldn't have needed to answer for nearly any of the things that you questioned me about.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Again, "safest play" because you are worried I'll turn on the town despite all of the work I've put into showing that I'm supporting the town? Like, it's technically a nonzero possibility, but your characterization of me makes it seem like I've been trying to work against the town for most of the game.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    The only way for her to get to 5 empower and also have me motivate her if she doesn't have any empowerment is for everyone else to empower her and for her to empower me, since there are 6 of us remaining.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Also, you keep repeating that I can win with the scum, which is true, but I feel like I've more than demonstrated that I've been working with the town as best I can (other than Night 1 where I was selfish and it backfired).
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    I'm curious why you feel your role on top of Wildfire's is ridiculous as scum but mine isn't.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Come on guys. I know I'm running later than expected, so I'm not faultless, but I do want to try to figure this out today.

    As a backup plan, I'm going to switch my empower in case Manders doesn't show in time.

    Empower DoTArchon
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Ok cool, we have the extension, so we should use it. That being said, I can't dig into this until the morning, but should be around most of the day tomorrow starting around 8 or 9 am est.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Also, DoTA, note that my plan involves you potentially activating your IC tomorrow night, not tonight. An IC is less useful in a MyLo situation than a LyLo situation, since a no-lynch there is just going to result in your death. If you could activate it tonight, that would be ideal, but requires Manders having 2 empowerment.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    That's fine - I just wanted to make sure.
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    Second request since I did this already
    Posted in: Mafia
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    posted a message on Disinheritance - Endgame
    It's not an actual roleblock, so you won't be affected. As claimed, it blocks killing abilities, takes away the ability to kill if it successfully blocks a kill, and causes the town to automatically win if the Mafia NK is blocked this way. Unless I'm not remembering it correctly.
    Posted in: Mafia
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