Playing on MTGO last night, I had the rather interesting experience of losing with the best draw I've ever had in Vintage.
On the draw, initial 7:
- Tolarian Academy
- Mana Vault
- Mox Pearl
- Tinker
- Voltaic Key
- Force of Will x2
and first card drawn being an irrelevant land. A first turn Time Vault combo, with FoW backup.
Opponent opened with just a basic Mountain.
I opened Mox - Mana Vault - Academy - Voltaic Key, the opponent Misstepped the Key, then had a Pyroblast for my Force. In hindsight, rather than Forcing the Missteap I probably should have let the Misstep land, then Tinkered into Inkwell Leviathan with Force backup, but I was not certain that would win the game.
I don't remember all the cards in hand but at least once I've had a turn 1 (on the draw) Doomsday kill with countermagic backup, used my countermagic to get through theirs, only to have them kill me with an Ancestral Recall.
In hindsight I probably didn't need to go for the turn 1, but I couldn't resist.
In hindsight I probably didn't need to go for the turn 1, but I couldn't resist.
This happens a lot to people newer to Vintage.
Firstly you hear about the format being turn 1 kill central, which isn't true, but you believe it until you start playing Vintage a while.
Then you get disappointed that turn 1 kills never seem to happen for you.
Then you get one! So of course you are super-excited, and don't stop to think that most turn 1 kill capable hands are also top 10% hands in longer games.
True mastery in Vintage is looking at your hand, seeing a possible turn 1 kill, and knowing when NOT to go for it.
Random aside: On the play, has anyone ever mulliganned away a hand with a turn 1 win because it wasn't good enough for the matchup you were playing? (For example, you expect your opponent is playing 4 FoW and 4 Misstep after boarding, and you draw Library of Alexandria - Black Lotus - Blightsteel Colossus - Voltaic Key - Time Vault - Mana Drain - Mana Drain. Would you mulligan that?)
Firstly you hear about the format being turn 1 kill central, which isn't true, but you believe it until you start playing Vintage a while.
Then you get disappointed that turn 1 kills never seem to happen for you.
Then you get one! So of course you are super-excited, and don't stop to think that most turn 1 kill capable hands are also top 10% hands in longer games.
True mastery in Vintage is looking at your hand, seeing a possible turn 1 kill, and knowing when NOT to go for it.
Random aside: On the play, has anyone ever mulliganned away a hand with a turn 1 win because it wasn't good enough for the matchup you were playing? (For example, you expect your opponent is playing 4 FoW and 4 Misstep after boarding, and you draw Library of Alexandria - Black Lotus - Blightsteel Colossus - Voltaic Key - Time Vault - Mana Drain - Mana Drain. Would you mulligan that?)
Honestly I've been playing vintage for a while and I still go for things like the turn 1 I described. As someone who plays almost exclusively combo decks, I see them a bit more frequently. I guess you could say I'm a gambling man, or that I never learn. I do think a turn 1 with countermagic backup is worth the gamble though.
As for your random aside, I can't say I've mulled a turn 1 win because I thought it was a poor matchup. But in the case of the hand you proposed I probably would. I'm not sure it's worth it to keep that against any deck except maybe shops, especially after boarding. If anything goes wrong, you've emptied your hand and only have a colorless mana source left. If one of those Drains was a Force, now that's a different story.
Firstly you hear about the format being turn 1 kill central, which isn't true, but you believe it until you start playing Vintage a while.
Then you get disappointed that turn 1 kills never seem to happen for you.
Then you get one! So of course you are super-excited, and don't stop to think that most turn 1 kill capable hands are also top 10% hands in longer games.
True mastery in Vintage is looking at your hand, seeing a possible turn 1 kill, and knowing when NOT to go for it.
Random aside: On the play, has anyone ever mulliganned away a hand with a turn 1 win because it wasn't good enough for the matchup you were playing? (For example, you expect your opponent is playing 4 FoW and 4 Misstep after boarding, and you draw Library of Alexandria - Black Lotus - Blightsteel Colossus - Voltaic Key - Time Vault - Mana Drain - Mana Drain. Would you mulligan that?)
Honestly I've been playing vintage for a while and I still go for things like the turn 1 I described. As someone who plays almost exclusively combo decks, I see them a bit more frequently. I guess you could say I'm a gambling man, or that I never learn. I do think a turn 1 with countermagic backup is worth the gamble though.
As for your random aside, I can't say I've mulled a turn 1 win because I thought it was a poor matchup. But in the case of the hand you proposed I probably would. I'm not sure it's worth it to keep that against any deck except maybe shops, especially after boarding. If anything goes wrong, you've emptied your hand and only have a colorless mana source left. If one of those Drains was a Force, now that's a different story.
Yeah if I had a hand that lost to Force of Will but beat Mental Misstep, I'd *always* keep it on the play as the hand is a favorite against anything the opponent could conceivably have.
The hand I crafted there as a mulligan example would lose to both cards (although you might have some chance against single Misstep if you play it right, which is advance to second main, Library - Lotus - tap Library for Key - crack Lotus to Mana Drain the Mental Misstep, pass turn, next turn you have a Key, two mana for Time Vault, and a win with any mana source)
Do you go for turn 1 kills that lose to Mental Misstep in general?
I had an opening hand of mana vault, time vault, key, sol ring and 3 lands. and proceded to get beaten by a t1 trinisphere.
hindsite being that the hand was completly unkeepable from the lack of counter magic, But I just had to try it and see how it worked.
I had an opening hand of mana vault, time vault, key, sol ring and 3 lands. and proceded to get beaten by a t1 trinisphere.
hindsite being that the hand was completly unkeepable from the lack of counter magic, But I just had to try it and see how it worked.
Did you know the opponent was playing Shops?
Because if you didn't, that hand is a keeper. Especially if you can get your opponent to counter your Sol Ring turn 1 and go for the turn 2 "kill".
Less of a good hand than a good series of cards in my deck, I lost the die roll and kept a rather decent hand, LED, Bazaar, a Mental Misstep and some Trolls. My opponent apparently didn't like his hand, but he kept it anyways. He went Island-Go turn 1. This is where I should have been terrified, but I got cocky instead. T1, LED, Bazaar
Long Story short, I milled down to 2 cards in deck, and swung for 106 from Zombies, Sun Titans, Bloodghasts, and a Flame-Kin Zealot. He cast Ancestral Recall targeting me.
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"I am disillusioned enough to know that no man's opinion on any subject is worth a damn unless backed up with enough genuine information to make him really know what he's talking about."
-H. P. Lovecraft
Less of a good hand than a good series of cards in my deck, I lost the die roll and kept a rather decent hand, LED, Bazaar, a Mental Misstep and some Trolls. My opponent apparently didn't like his hand, but he kept it anyways. He went Island-Go turn 1. This is where I should have been terrified, but I got cocky instead. T1, LED, Bazaar
Long Story short, I milled down to 2 cards in deck, and swung for 106 from Zombies, Sun Titans, Bloodghasts, and a Flame-Kin Zealot. He cast Ancestral Recall targeting me.
I've seen that happen a few times. did you need to go below 3 cards?
Do you go for turn 1 kills that lose to Mental Misstep in general?
I'd say most of the time. It's an easier counterspell to play around than Force, since it has fewer targets, and it's also possible to bait them into playing on something you don't care about, or sequence your plays so that you don't straight up lose to it. I guess in general I'm less concerned about MM than Force, since Force hits more things, and MM is played slightly less.
Less of a good hand than a good series of cards in my deck, I lost the die roll and kept a rather decent hand, LED, Bazaar, a Mental Misstep and some Trolls. My opponent apparently didn't like his hand, but he kept it anyways. He went Island-Go turn 1. This is where I should have been terrified, but I got cocky instead. T1, LED, Bazaar
Long Story short, I milled down to 2 cards in deck, and swung for 106 from Zombies, Sun Titans, Bloodghasts, and a Flame-Kin Zealot. He cast Ancestral Recall targeting me.
Did you replace one of them by Dredging Dakmor Salvage so that you would get overkilled by 1 card? (I'm guessing list had Dakmor because Bloodghast)
I didn't run Dakmor TBH. The ghasts were kinda just there because I had room and I love the Sun Titan loop. Dread Return a titan, get back a Bazaar, get ghasts, tap bazaar, hopefully be able to do it again. I should really put in a Salvage as a one of, thanks for the Idea
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-H. P. Lovecraft
It's mathematically always correct to go for the turn 1 if you're on the play on the draw it's less clear cut but on the play blind it's 60/40 in your favor. On the draw with force backup? I'd still go for it.
I can't remember the best starting hand I've lost with in vintage. Might be subconsciously suppressing the memories
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Is that still correct assuming you have to factor in Misstep for your kill? I'd go for it so much more often if the only free counter I had to worry about was Force....
EDIT : I think the worst loss was me having a turn 1 Bargain and fizzling because I flooded in mana in my draws.
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"An immense river of oblivion is sweeping us away into a nameless abyss." —Ernest Renan, Souvenirs d'Enfance et de Jeunesse
It's mathematically always correct to go for the turn 1 if you're on the play on the draw it's less clear cut but on the play blind it's 60/40 in your favor. On the draw with force backup? I'd still go for it.
I can't remember the best starting hand I've lost with in vintage. Might be subconsciously suppressing the memories
You are the favorite to win turn 1 on the play if you only lose to Force and your opponent runs 4 Force. It's a bit different if you lose to Misstep too (assuming your opponent didn't aggressively mulligan for Force or Misstep, if they run 4 FoW and 3 Misstep, they are about 60% to have one or the other). It's also a bit different if you lose to Misdirection.
The other thing is, if you have an amazing hand that has T1 kill potential, you might be much more than a 60-40 favorite in a longer game. Let's say you draw Tolarian Academy - Mox Ruby - Mana Crypt - Tinker - Voltaic Key - Ancestral Recall. You could go Crypt - Academy - Ruby - Tinker Crypt into Time Vault, cast Key, try to win on the spot and risk being blown out by a Misstep followed by a Wasteland. Or you could play more conservatively, and go Crypt - Academy - Ruby - Ancestral and then maybe be in a position to Tinker into Blightsteel or Time Vault with counter backup.
I feel not going for the T1 kill there makes you a bigger favorite. (If they counter your Ancestral - great! Cast Key, Tinker into Time Vault, and pass the turn with Key and a tapped Vault.)
BLack lotus
taiga
food chain
goblin lackey
goblin recruiter
gempalm incinerator
mana crypt
Unless I drew a siege gang, it was turn 1 win hand. Even if my opponent had an FoW (and he'd likely FoW the lackey), my odds of winning on turn 2 was still very high.
Unfortunately, I was going second, and my opponent charbelchers me.
On the draw, initial 7:
- Tolarian Academy
- Mana Vault
- Mox Pearl
- Tinker
- Voltaic Key
- Force of Will x2
and first card drawn being an irrelevant land. A first turn Time Vault combo, with FoW backup.
Opponent opened with just a basic Mountain.
I opened Mox - Mana Vault - Academy - Voltaic Key, the opponent Misstepped the Key, then had a Pyroblast for my Force. In hindsight, rather than Forcing the Missteap I probably should have let the Misstep land, then Tinkered into Inkwell Leviathan with Force backup, but I was not certain that would win the game.
What's your 'worst beat', to take a poker term?
In hindsight I probably didn't need to go for the turn 1, but I couldn't resist.
This happens a lot to people newer to Vintage.
Firstly you hear about the format being turn 1 kill central, which isn't true, but you believe it until you start playing Vintage a while.
Then you get disappointed that turn 1 kills never seem to happen for you.
Then you get one! So of course you are super-excited, and don't stop to think that most turn 1 kill capable hands are also top 10% hands in longer games.
True mastery in Vintage is looking at your hand, seeing a possible turn 1 kill, and knowing when NOT to go for it.
Random aside: On the play, has anyone ever mulliganned away a hand with a turn 1 win because it wasn't good enough for the matchup you were playing? (For example, you expect your opponent is playing 4 FoW and 4 Misstep after boarding, and you draw Library of Alexandria - Black Lotus - Blightsteel Colossus - Voltaic Key - Time Vault - Mana Drain - Mana Drain. Would you mulligan that?)
Honestly I've been playing vintage for a while and I still go for things like the turn 1 I described. As someone who plays almost exclusively combo decks, I see them a bit more frequently. I guess you could say I'm a gambling man, or that I never learn. I do think a turn 1 with countermagic backup is worth the gamble though.
As for your random aside, I can't say I've mulled a turn 1 win because I thought it was a poor matchup. But in the case of the hand you proposed I probably would. I'm not sure it's worth it to keep that against any deck except maybe shops, especially after boarding. If anything goes wrong, you've emptied your hand and only have a colorless mana source left. If one of those Drains was a Force, now that's a different story.
Yeah if I had a hand that lost to Force of Will but beat Mental Misstep, I'd *always* keep it on the play as the hand is a favorite against anything the opponent could conceivably have.
The hand I crafted there as a mulligan example would lose to both cards (although you might have some chance against single Misstep if you play it right, which is advance to second main, Library - Lotus - tap Library for Key - crack Lotus to Mana Drain the Mental Misstep, pass turn, next turn you have a Key, two mana for Time Vault, and a win with any mana source)
Do you go for turn 1 kills that lose to Mental Misstep in general?
hindsite being that the hand was completly unkeepable from the lack of counter magic, But I just had to try it and see how it worked.
Did you know the opponent was playing Shops?
Because if you didn't, that hand is a keeper. Especially if you can get your opponent to counter your Sol Ring turn 1 and go for the turn 2 "kill".
Long Story short, I milled down to 2 cards in deck, and swung for 106 from Zombies, Sun Titans, Bloodghasts, and a Flame-Kin Zealot. He cast Ancestral Recall targeting me.
"I am disillusioned enough to know that no man's opinion on any subject is worth a damn unless backed up with enough genuine information to make him really know what he's talking about."
-H. P. Lovecraft
I've seen that happen a few times. did you need to go below 3 cards?
I'd say most of the time. It's an easier counterspell to play around than Force, since it has fewer targets, and it's also possible to bait them into playing on something you don't care about, or sequence your plays so that you don't straight up lose to it. I guess in general I'm less concerned about MM than Force, since Force hits more things, and MM is played slightly less.
Did you replace one of them by Dredging Dakmor Salvage so that you would get overkilled by 1 card? (I'm guessing list had Dakmor because Bloodghast)
"I am disillusioned enough to know that no man's opinion on any subject is worth a damn unless backed up with enough genuine information to make him really know what he's talking about."
-H. P. Lovecraft
I can't remember the best starting hand I've lost with in vintage. Might be subconsciously suppressing the memories
Currently Playing:
Retired
EDIT : I think the worst loss was me having a turn 1 Bargain and fizzling because I flooded in mana in my draws.
You are the favorite to win turn 1 on the play if you only lose to Force and your opponent runs 4 Force. It's a bit different if you lose to Misstep too (assuming your opponent didn't aggressively mulligan for Force or Misstep, if they run 4 FoW and 3 Misstep, they are about 60% to have one or the other). It's also a bit different if you lose to Misdirection.
The other thing is, if you have an amazing hand that has T1 kill potential, you might be much more than a 60-40 favorite in a longer game. Let's say you draw Tolarian Academy - Mox Ruby - Mana Crypt - Tinker - Voltaic Key - Ancestral Recall. You could go Crypt - Academy - Ruby - Tinker Crypt into Time Vault, cast Key, try to win on the spot and risk being blown out by a Misstep followed by a Wasteland. Or you could play more conservatively, and go Crypt - Academy - Ruby - Ancestral and then maybe be in a position to Tinker into Blightsteel or Time Vault with counter backup.
I feel not going for the T1 kill there makes you a bigger favorite. (If they counter your Ancestral - great! Cast Key, Tinker into Time Vault, and pass the turn with Key and a tapped Vault.)
taiga
food chain
goblin lackey
goblin recruiter
gempalm incinerator
mana crypt
Unless I drew a siege gang, it was turn 1 win hand. Even if my opponent had an FoW (and he'd likely FoW the lackey), my odds of winning on turn 2 was still very high.
Unfortunately, I was going second, and my opponent charbelchers me.
"Sometimes, the situation is outracing a threat, sometimes it's ignoring it, and sometimes it involves sideboarding in 4x Hope//Pray." --Doug Linn