The support is too loose. There just isn't a critical mass of either aggressive artifacts to feel confident about getting it online early, and not a critical mass of artifact support to make people care
Hey, a bunch of new cards got randomly spoiled for us today. Here are the cards that jumped out to me.
Militia Bugler- A slightly below-rate body for 2W that has some chance to draw a creature spell. Doing some quick hyper geometric calculator math shows 6 other targets means ~50% chance to hit and 9 other targets is about ~66%. I would have to look at some decklists to figure out how often white decks have those types of targets.
Aven Wind Mage- I know the ability is slightly worse than Bloodwater Entity's Prowess or Adeliz, the Cinder Wind's Wizard ability, but this basically gives up the small upside (getting a spell on top or haste) on those cards for being mono-colored.
Vampire Sovereign- I think the ability makes this better than a generic 4/4 flier for 3BB. Whether or not it is enough better to be CUbed is unclear, but also unlikely.
Fountain of Renewal- I added Elixir of Immortality a while ago because I hoped it would help enable a different type of control deck with fewer win conditions, but that has not yet happened in drafts. This is a different, but similar, card that can always draw a card regardless. I think without having the potential to go long like Elixir, it is too far below rate to be good.
My white 3s are pretty weak, so Militia Bugler fits right in.
As for the others, I like Vampire Sovereign quite a bit, but it competes directly with Gary and Indulgent Tormentor, two cards that are very good at their jobs. Aven Wind Mage seems like mostly a sidegrade from Jeskai Windscout, and as far as I know that card’s not beating down any doors. Fountain of Renewal might be ok for certain archetype support, but as a raw control card is just too passive.
I think the 2 toughness in exchange for instants/sorceries on Aven Wind Mage is actually a substantial increase in utility over Jeskai Windscout but I still don't see myself playing it.
Militia Bugler hits 66% of my creatures, which is definitely good enough to warrant testing. White having multiple good hits at 4 and 5 helps it quite a bit. It potentially finding Mulldrifter/Splicers/Whirler Rogue in addition to being a reasonable blink target is also pretty big game when it comes to supporting blink.
Vampire Sovereign seems good. Sizable non-fragile body with evasion + a 6 point life swing etb is always relevant. I think basically all black decks would be willing to play it and have moderate success. As straightforward as the card is, I think it checks all the boxes I want for a 5 drop, though I'm not 100% on the power level being quite there.
I was curious about this as well and ran some numbers for the last few white decks I drafted out of my CUbe on Cube Tutor. It may not be a perfect measure, but the following table below indicates how often you would at least draw a card based on the numbers. In those decks, most of the hits were generic 1 or 2 drops, but we also had some relevant 4+ mana creatures or archetype specific cards.
(I ran a hyper geometric calculator using the deck size as the population size, "hits" as number of successes, 4 as the sample size, and either 1 or 2 for number of successes in sample)
Question about the hypergeometric calculations
Shouldn't the remaining population be 36? It seems funny, but the cards you know you can't have in the population are the card itself and the mana sources used as payment.
Like, a certain subset of deck configurations are being tested by the hypergeometric calculator that are impossible, like never having drawn a lands but still playing the card.
The assumption is that you draw the exact same ratios as in your 40, e.g. your 16 land deck is 40% lands at all points in time, regardless of whether or not it's possible, since the average draw is .4 lands. This means that your ratio of hits to non-hits will always be the same at the start of the calculation. It will be very slightly off because you don't practically have the same ratios at all points in time, but it's an incredibly good estimate.
Since it draws without replacement (during the calculation) a more accurate estimate would be using an estimated deck size of when the card would be played, but since that creates non-integer numbers for successes it's not as easy to do. It's only a ~1% difference, so it's not a big deal.
Once you start dealing with practical scenarios and implementing restrictions you end up being better off just programming a simulation.
Cavalry Drillmaster- A 2/1 for 1W with a sorcery-speed combat trick attached. I suppose this will get a creature through more often than not, but is awkward on turn 2 when you might not have a creature to pump. Decent ceiling, but pretty crummy floor.
Exclusion Mage- Oh boy. I did not think they would give us *another* Man-o-War variant at 3 mana after the original and AEther Adept, but here we go. The effect is worse than the original, but costed better than Adept, so probably ranks 2nd among those three. I can see cutting something like Stitched Mangler for this or the Adept if you do not want a third effect.
Cavalry drillmaster is one of those cards that ends up being a worse card than it had to be in service of it being a more interesting design.
It coulda been a 3 drop 3/2 with the same etb, and it would have been a better card. Like yavimaya forcemage (sp?), which was great in its limited format.
But at 2, it makes you ask "how often do I have a 1 drop" or "how good is this on 3" which is the kind of cool card evaluation question they want people to ask.
Exclusion Mage oooh yeah that's good the double blue on aether adept makes it hard to pick compared to this.
Meteor Golem I like the effect but that 7 mana feels too much (although its balanced).
Vampire Sovereign vs Indulgent tormentor that's a really hard choice. That 4 toughness is really nice and its more generically useful than tormentor.
Militia Bugler I have so many white 3 drops, its a choice between making a random token and sometimes drawing a card.
For some reason I didn't realise reassembling skeleton was a warrior.. I might have to find some room, its a very versatile card a bit low on power though.
I like Cavalry Drillmaster partly because I like supporting first strike as a side strategy for power matters / double strikers, especially with Kwende, Pride of Femeref. Plus, I have an open slot for said purpose.
Militia Bugler should be fine in my CU/be but I ill have to see if I have the slot. CA ETBs in white are very welcome and quite a few build-around cards fall under its purview.
Meteor Golem seems fun but there might not quite be a slot for it.
Vampire Sovereign is certainly worth a look though I probably prefer Indulgent Tormentor just for its ability to finish a game quickly by itself if not killed.
I am surprised not to see anyone even mention Skilled Animator. It might be conditional and not produce value per se but getting a 5/5 for 3 (well, sort of a 5/3 fore removal purposes) still seems strong and unlike Ensoul Artifact, the card is never absolutely dead. Might well not make it but seems to at least deserve some discussion.
I've been thinking about Skilled Animator, I'm not sure about it. You say Ensoul Artifact can be a dead card, but you're never ever happy with a 1/3 for 3 and you're not going to play Animator unless you're sure you can get your 5/5, just as with Ensoul, so there's not much of a difference to me. Ensoul at least gives you an actual 5/5, even if it carries the risk of getting 2-for-1ed. Removing Animator is much easier, but it is better if you're turning your Spined Thopter into a 5/5 (compared to ensouling your Bonesplitter).
It's a good example for a card that needs actual tests, but there's a good chance that a cube already running Ensoul just wants a second copy of this effect instead of a swap for a slightly different version of it.
I currently run Tezzeret's Touch mostly due to the ability of recursion as animating artifacts always turns into a risk of a 2 for 1. I would have posted on the Skilled animator but life has a way for keeping me quite busy recently. But I think the Animator is worth a test in my cube as the artifact archetype has been a favorite.
Im alos in the boat if you run one of the ensoul artifact effect its best to have multiple effects, as this is one card that i have been testing my last few drafts.
More fun new cards that showed up in the Card Image Gallery today:
Mirror Image- Gives up a good piece of Clone's functionality (copying opposing creatures) in exchange for a one-mana discount. I think I like this quite a bit, because I feel like a lot of the Clone decks I build are also heavy on ETB creatures. Either a more rampy deck with the big 7 drops (Pelakka Wurm, Trostani's Summoner) or a control deck with 2-for-1 creatures (Shriekmaw, Fire Imp). I think copying is a strong enough effect to have a weaker, cheaper version be playable.
Volley Veteran- Speaking of weaker versions... Flametongue Kavu this ain't, BUT even a 4/2 for 4 that can deal 2 damage to a creature could be pretty good. I surprisingly only have 10 other Goblins in my 512 card CUbe, but three of them make multiple tokens. Might be worth ticking up the Goblin support a smidge.
Satyr Enchanter- You know what, the enchantment support in Selesnya is starting to look better and better as a build-around theme. Not that Satyr Enchanter is the tipping point, but if you can reasonable draw 1 card off of Enchanter, it is probably worth consideration.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Militia Bugler- A slightly below-rate body for 2W that has some chance to draw a creature spell. Doing some quick hyper geometric calculator math shows 6 other targets means ~50% chance to hit and 9 other targets is about ~66%. I would have to look at some decklists to figure out how often white decks have those types of targets.
Aven Wind Mage- I know the ability is slightly worse than Bloodwater Entity's Prowess or Adeliz, the Cinder Wind's Wizard ability, but this basically gives up the small upside (getting a spell on top or haste) on those cards for being mono-colored.
Vampire Sovereign- I think the ability makes this better than a generic 4/4 flier for 3BB. Whether or not it is enough better to be CUbed is unclear, but also unlikely.
Fountain of Renewal- I added Elixir of Immortality a while ago because I hoped it would help enable a different type of control deck with fewer win conditions, but that has not yet happened in drafts. This is a different, but similar, card that can always draw a card regardless. I think without having the potential to go long like Elixir, it is too far below rate to be good.
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/peasantsnowcube
-- Updated with Outlaws of Thunder Junction
The PioneWer Peasant CUbe
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/pionewer
-- Updated with Murders at Karlov Manor
As for the others, I like Vampire Sovereign quite a bit, but it competes directly with Gary and Indulgent Tormentor, two cards that are very good at their jobs. Aven Wind Mage seems like mostly a sidegrade from Jeskai Windscout, and as far as I know that card’s not beating down any doors. Fountain of Renewal might be ok for certain archetype support, but as a raw control card is just too passive.
Cubetutor Link
I think the 2 toughness in exchange for instants/sorceries on Aven Wind Mage is actually a substantial increase in utility over Jeskai Windscout but I still don't see myself playing it.
Vampire Sovereign seems good. Sizable non-fragile body with evasion + a 6 point life swing etb is always relevant. I think basically all black decks would be willing to play it and have moderate success. As straightforward as the card is, I think it checks all the boxes I want for a 5 drop, though I'm not 100% on the power level being quite there.
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
(I ran a hyper geometric calculator using the deck size as the population size, "hits" as number of successes, 4 as the sample size, and either 1 or 2 for number of successes in sample)
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/peasantsnowcube
-- Updated with Outlaws of Thunder Junction
The PioneWer Peasant CUbe
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/pionewer
-- Updated with Murders at Karlov Manor
My Peasant Cube thread !!! (380 cards)
Draft my Peasant Cube on Cube Cobra !!!
Shouldn't the remaining population be 36? It seems funny, but the cards you know you can't have in the population are the card itself and the mana sources used as payment.
Like, a certain subset of deck configurations are being tested by the hypergeometric calculator that are impossible, like never having drawn a lands but still playing the card.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Since it draws without replacement (during the calculation) a more accurate estimate would be using an estimated deck size of when the card would be played, but since that creates non-integer numbers for successes it's not as easy to do. It's only a ~1% difference, so it's not a big deal.
Once you start dealing with practical scenarios and implementing restrictions you end up being better off just programming a simulation.
Cavalry Drillmaster- A 2/1 for 1W with a sorcery-speed combat trick attached. I suppose this will get a creature through more often than not, but is awkward on turn 2 when you might not have a creature to pump. Decent ceiling, but pretty crummy floor.
Exclusion Mage- Oh boy. I did not think they would give us *another* Man-o-War variant at 3 mana after the original and AEther Adept, but here we go. The effect is worse than the original, but costed better than Adept, so probably ranks 2nd among those three. I can see cutting something like Stitched Mangler for this or the Adept if you do not want a third effect.
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/peasantsnowcube
-- Updated with Outlaws of Thunder Junction
The PioneWer Peasant CUbe
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/pionewer
-- Updated with Murders at Karlov Manor
It coulda been a 3 drop 3/2 with the same etb, and it would have been a better card. Like yavimaya forcemage (sp?), which was great in its limited format.
But at 2, it makes you ask "how often do I have a 1 drop" or "how good is this on 3" which is the kind of cool card evaluation question they want people to ask.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Meteor Golem I like the effect but that 7 mana feels too much (although its balanced).
Vampire Sovereign vs Indulgent tormentor that's a really hard choice. That 4 toughness is really nice and its more generically useful than tormentor.
Militia Bugler I have so many white 3 drops, its a choice between making a random token and sometimes drawing a card.
For some reason I didn't realise reassembling skeleton was a warrior.. I might have to find some room, its a very versatile card a bit low on power though.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
Militia Bugler should be fine in my CU/be but I ill have to see if I have the slot. CA ETBs in white are very welcome and quite a few build-around cards fall under its purview.
Meteor Golem seems fun but there might not quite be a slot for it.
Vampire Sovereign is certainly worth a look though I probably prefer Indulgent Tormentor just for its ability to finish a game quickly by itself if not killed.
I am surprised not to see anyone even mention Skilled Animator. It might be conditional and not produce value per se but getting a 5/5 for 3 (well, sort of a 5/3 fore removal purposes) still seems strong and unlike Ensoul Artifact, the card is never absolutely dead. Might well not make it but seems to at least deserve some discussion.
It's a good example for a card that needs actual tests, but there's a good chance that a cube already running Ensoul just wants a second copy of this effect instead of a swap for a slightly different version of it.
Im alos in the boat if you run one of the ensoul artifact effect its best to have multiple effects, as this is one card that i have been testing my last few drafts.
Not a bad list with lots of CU cards left to reveal
Mirror Image- Gives up a good piece of Clone's functionality (copying opposing creatures) in exchange for a one-mana discount. I think I like this quite a bit, because I feel like a lot of the Clone decks I build are also heavy on ETB creatures. Either a more rampy deck with the big 7 drops (Pelakka Wurm, Trostani's Summoner) or a control deck with 2-for-1 creatures (Shriekmaw, Fire Imp). I think copying is a strong enough effect to have a weaker, cheaper version be playable.
Volley Veteran- Speaking of weaker versions... Flametongue Kavu this ain't, BUT even a 4/2 for 4 that can deal 2 damage to a creature could be pretty good. I surprisingly only have 10 other Goblins in my 512 card CUbe, but three of them make multiple tokens. Might be worth ticking up the Goblin support a smidge.
Satyr Enchanter- You know what, the enchantment support in Selesnya is starting to look better and better as a build-around theme. Not that Satyr Enchanter is the tipping point, but if you can reasonable draw 1 card off of Enchanter, it is probably worth consideration.
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/peasantsnowcube
-- Updated with Outlaws of Thunder Junction
The PioneWer Peasant CUbe
https://cubecobra.com/cube/list/pionewer
-- Updated with Murders at Karlov Manor