Cool card. Definitely some cool applications for sure, e.g. fetching a Grafted Wargear or Porcelain Legionnaire, but it's just too narrow for Peasant. We can't fetch Swords or the like....
With two artifacts the chance to draw both artifacts before Trophy Mage is 33%. If that happens Trophy Mage has no targets left, which means it's just a 2/2 for 3 mana. If you play 10 cards with cmc 1 or 2 in a deck with Shardless Agent (which is very reasonable for a tempo/aggro deck) and two of them are counterspells the chance to cascade into one of them is 20%.
No, that's not right at all.
33% is the chance that Mage is the lowest-in-your-library of the three relevant cards. But if it's low enough that you don't draw it, it doesn't matter that you already drew its only two targets.
Say you see 18 cards in a game. One of them is Trophy Mage. That leaves 17 others. The probability of two of those 17 being both of your Mage targets is 17.4%
Oh yeah, I used sample size of 40 instead of 39, right. Gets a little worse.
But... of course you know how long the game will be. You can't say "well, I'm gonna win on Turn 11" but you get a very good idea of how many turns are relevant based on just playing the CUbe format a bunch. Such a small percent of my CUbe games go to the 27th card in the library, so that's not going to be the number I use. And... even if I do play out a game that late, remember, we're discussing a 3-drop. If you draw Frost Lynx or Tandem Lookout instead, how often is that relevant in the super late game?
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I play Legionnaire all the time in midrange decks. A 3/1 first strike is still a great threat and an even better defender. Spined Thopter less so, but I still have played decks with a Thopter alongside Sea Gate Oracle, a 3-drop even less aggressive than this mage.
And if I'm UG or UW, I'm pretty thrilled to be P3P1'ing Behemoth Sledge and then hunting for fixing. It's like the single most splash-worthy guild card aside from maybe Lingering Souls.
Cathodion is definite filler, but it turns Trophy Mage into a pseudo Squadron Hawk (or Call of the Herd) which is definitely good enough. If I already have one target for my Mage, I'm drafting Cathodion over some slightly "better" cards (Frost Lynx-type stuff) since a 3cmc 2/2 drawing a 3cmc 3/3 adds up to a solid enough card.
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The biggest problem I have the Mage is how bad it is when you're doing a 4-person draft, grid draft, sealed, etc. If you reliable do 6-person or 8-person drafts, Mage is probably a solid piece, especially since it's coming in a set with more artifact support (and an apparent "cmc3" theme).
I thought about it some more, but I still think Improvise will be a miss. The exception is if there is a card that is "fine" with no cost reduction and has a chance of being (perhaps reluctantly) played in a normal cube deck, but that can be "very strong" in a deck with some artifact synergies.
Perhaps kinda how Fanatic of Xenagos is a good tribute-card by almost "ignoring" the tribute mechanic.
I think I've never seen a CUbe deck that even quasi-reliably has 2+ artifacts in play at the same time (not counting Signets and Mind Stone... since those don't exactly combo with this mechanic).
Also, the first card we see is a Death Wind variant at rare? Not a great sign.
Well, to be fair, it is also a variation of Death Grasp but unable to target players. I suppose the lifegain is taken to be too good for lower rarities in limited. Still, I will admit I was not happy about that effect as a rare, but on the other hand, while the average strength of rares may have been decreasing, the number of really good commons and uncommons seems to have been climbing. It is not as though power is being reduced across the rarities.
Edit: Oh, the irony: the thumbnail for Death Grasp is from Vintage Masters which is its only non-rare printing but also online only.
Just to pop in and add to the math on trophy mage, you guys are all talking about the last turn of the game as if that's when you're likely to draw the card.
In all cases, the average turn where the card is drawn is by to the middle. The middle of the pool of cards drawn. So if you get to see 20 cards in a game on average (generously) you would expect to see trophy mage by card 10 or 11.
Which is about turn 4.
The math for the two targets being in your other opening 10 cards is laughably low. 6% if my back of the envolope calculations are correct.
Now, I don't think that you get to quite see 20 cards in a game on average. 18, maybe 19. But that's pulling at hairs. You certainly don't get to see 20 meaningful cards in a game on average, as there are games with one or two or three meaningless turns at the end too often. In any case, a bad case scenario is probably finding this card as your 14th or 15th card, and at 15 cards (assuming I calculated properly) I still get like a 7/8 chance of it having a target.
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I think a lot of Phitts arguments are silly on tihs case (Porcelain legionnaire goes into midrange decks all the time, for one.) But I don't think the card is good simply because the odds of drafting two targets are low. This seems like a classic trap.
However if it could reliably be phyrexian rager that only drew me nonland cards, and occasionally always drew me grafted wargear or porcelain legionnaire, yeah I would play that in even aggressive decks more often than not.
It's ~12% to draw Mage + both targets in top 15 cards, ~6% in top 11 cards.
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T3 Mage, T4 Legionnaire + any relevant 2-drop seems like a pretty great curve to me. Not, like, Staggershock into Control Magic great, but still above the base-line for what I want my Cube decks to be doing on T3/T4.
But yeah, whether or not it's good with two targets is kinda irrelevant since a normal list just has no reliable chance of getting two targets. I'd probably say "**** it" and play it if I had just Wargear or Warhammer (I play the Selesnya one but not the O.G.), but even that's not enough to make Mage a playable card unless you start putting Cathodion into your basic land box or really push an archetype of artifacts.
Well, to be fair, it is also a variation of Death Grasp but unable to target players. I suppose the lifegain is taken to be too good for lower rarities in limited. Still, I will admit I was not happy about that effect as a rare, but on the other hand, while the average strength of rares may have been decreasing, the number of really good commons and uncommons seems to have been climbing. It is not as though power is being reduced across the rarities.
Edit: Oh, the irony: the thumbnail for Death Grasp is from Vintage Masters which is its only non-rare printing but also online only.
I think the average power of CU cards is up, but the "really good" ones are vastly more rare. How many P1P1 CUbe cards do we have since like... Khans block? Off the top of my head, I'd happily take Whirler Rogue, and be like "eh, OK" for Duskwatch Recruiter and Sentinel of the Eternal Watch.
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Any Fireball variant that can't hit players is just 0.00000% to ever make my Cube, hence the Death Wind comparison instead of Death Grasp.
Oh, right - I meant really good in terms of having sufficient power level to be at least considered for CU/be. Not in terms of CU/be strength comparisons which are still dominated by old cards and cards from supplementary products. Still, we do have stellar role-players like Aether Hub, Heir of Falkenrath, Reflector Mage, Kessig Prowler, Smoldering Werewolf, Baloth Null, etc.
The main point was that reduction in the average power of rares does not necessarily translate to weaker cards for us. Although it is problematic how many basic effects are being relegated to rare, which is part of the reason we are not getting those sorts of solid cards as regularly.
I don't think so. I'm not sure what I think of that new black removal. I like Silkweaver Elite. Not enough to put into my cube, but enough to comment on it.
Fatal Push works with Terramorphic Expanse, fetches, blocks and so on. Lets you do silly things like Harrow for a swamp to kill a 4 drop while ramping. Should be a very good card.
Silkweaver Elite seems close to playable. Conditional green Phyrexian rager with reach doesn't sound amazing, but green 3s are not the most competitive spot.
The top end on Tragic Slip is far enough above Fatal Push (the similarity of their names also gives me feelings) that I don't think Push will ever break in for me. Killing reanimated or ramped creatures is awesome. That said, I might like it better than Disfigure.
Untethered Express feels like it has a fine power level but I don't want to overload on Vehicles and I think I prefer the Ball Lightning vehicle more, if for nothing else but wow factor.
Winding Constrictor is interesting but if I added +1/+1 counter support to another color it would probably be Red and not Black. Shame, G/B could use another option for an archetype.
Silkweaver Elite seems close to playable. Conditional green Phyrexian rager with reach doesn't sound amazing, but green 3s are not the most competitive spot.
After I started putting in +1/+1 counter support I find my green 3s to be comfortably full, which is a happy new feeling.
Untethered Express should be good. We're actually at a point where we get to choose between playble vehicles now, that's great.
Pacification Array could be something? 2 is not nothing, but it comes down so much earlier than Icy Manipulator.
Black removal: I agree that Tragic Slip is better, but the new card has to be better than Disfigure. I'm not sure how it compares to Vendetta, but I believe I'd prefer the new spell in more situations. The fact that they printed black removal worth talking about at all is kind of amazing, the last one was Murderous Cut I guess? That's a couple of years old by now.
Draft it on Cubetutor here, and CubeCobra here.
Treasure Cruise did nothing wrong.
My Peasant Cube thread !!! (380 cards)
Draft my Peasant Cube on Cube Cobra !!!
No, that's not right at all.
33% is the chance that Mage is the lowest-in-your-library of the three relevant cards. But if it's low enough that you don't draw it, it doesn't matter that you already drew its only two targets.
Say you see 18 cards in a game. One of them is Trophy Mage. That leaves 17 others. The probability of two of those 17 being both of your Mage targets is 17.4%
But... of course you know how long the game will be. You can't say "well, I'm gonna win on Turn 11" but you get a very good idea of how many turns are relevant based on just playing the CUbe format a bunch. Such a small percent of my CUbe games go to the 27th card in the library, so that's not going to be the number I use. And... even if I do play out a game that late, remember, we're discussing a 3-drop. If you draw Frost Lynx or Tandem Lookout instead, how often is that relevant in the super late game?
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I play Legionnaire all the time in midrange decks. A 3/1 first strike is still a great threat and an even better defender. Spined Thopter less so, but I still have played decks with a Thopter alongside Sea Gate Oracle, a 3-drop even less aggressive than this mage.
And if I'm UG or UW, I'm pretty thrilled to be P3P1'ing Behemoth Sledge and then hunting for fixing. It's like the single most splash-worthy guild card aside from maybe Lingering Souls.
Cathodion is definite filler, but it turns Trophy Mage into a pseudo Squadron Hawk (or Call of the Herd) which is definitely good enough. If I already have one target for my Mage, I'm drafting Cathodion over some slightly "better" cards (Frost Lynx-type stuff) since a 3cmc 2/2 drawing a 3cmc 3/3 adds up to a solid enough card.
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The biggest problem I have the Mage is how bad it is when you're doing a 4-person draft, grid draft, sealed, etc. If you reliable do 6-person or 8-person drafts, Mage is probably a solid piece, especially since it's coming in a set with more artifact support (and an apparent "cmc3" theme).
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
I wouldn't dismiss Improvise out of hand. It works with clues as well for instance.
My C/Ube on Cube Cobra
Perhaps kinda how Fanatic of Xenagos is a good tribute-card by almost "ignoring" the tribute mechanic.
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
Also, the first card we see is a Death Wind variant at rare? Not a great sign.
Edit: Oh, the irony: the thumbnail for Death Grasp is from Vintage Masters which is its only non-rare printing but also online only.
In all cases, the average turn where the card is drawn is by to the middle. The middle of the pool of cards drawn. So if you get to see 20 cards in a game on average (generously) you would expect to see trophy mage by card 10 or 11.
Which is about turn 4.
The math for the two targets being in your other opening 10 cards is laughably low. 6% if my back of the envolope calculations are correct.
Now, I don't think that you get to quite see 20 cards in a game on average. 18, maybe 19. But that's pulling at hairs. You certainly don't get to see 20 meaningful cards in a game on average, as there are games with one or two or three meaningless turns at the end too often. In any case, a bad case scenario is probably finding this card as your 14th or 15th card, and at 15 cards (assuming I calculated properly) I still get like a 7/8 chance of it having a target.
//
I think a lot of Phitts arguments are silly on tihs case (Porcelain legionnaire goes into midrange decks all the time, for one.) But I don't think the card is good simply because the odds of drafting two targets are low. This seems like a classic trap.
However if it could reliably be phyrexian rager that only drew me nonland cards, and occasionally always drew me grafted wargear or porcelain legionnaire, yeah I would play that in even aggressive decks more often than not.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
It's ~12% to draw Mage + both targets in top 15 cards, ~6% in top 11 cards.
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T3 Mage, T4 Legionnaire + any relevant 2-drop seems like a pretty great curve to me. Not, like, Staggershock into Control Magic great, but still above the base-line for what I want my Cube decks to be doing on T3/T4.
But yeah, whether or not it's good with two targets is kinda irrelevant since a normal list just has no reliable chance of getting two targets. I'd probably say "**** it" and play it if I had just Wargear or Warhammer (I play the Selesnya one but not the O.G.), but even that's not enough to make Mage a playable card unless you start putting Cathodion into your basic land box or really push an archetype of artifacts.
I think the average power of CU cards is up, but the "really good" ones are vastly more rare. How many P1P1 CUbe cards do we have since like... Khans block? Off the top of my head, I'd happily take Whirler Rogue, and be like "eh, OK" for Duskwatch Recruiter and Sentinel of the Eternal Watch.
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Any Fireball variant that can't hit players is just 0.00000% to ever make my Cube, hence the Death Wind comparison instead of Death Grasp.
The main point was that reduction in the average power of rares does not necessarily translate to weaker cards for us. Although it is problematic how many basic effects are being relegated to rare, which is part of the reason we are not getting those sorts of solid cards as regularly.
As for Trophy Mage, I like being able to get Chief of the Foundry. Renegade Freighter also works really well with it. Phyrexian War Beast, Cathodion, Porcelain Legionnaire... the mage could easily be part of an aggressive artifact deck. Outside of that getting Seer's Lantern is nice. The targets really don't have to be that special to make it worth it, provided you run a few (which you may or may not want to do).
Draft it on Cubetutor here, and CubeCobra here.
Treasure Cruise did nothing wrong.
Modern
Value Town
Amulet Titan
Legacy
4C Loam
My Peasant Cube
http://cubetutor.com/viewcube/11667
CubeTutor Link
Untethered Express feels like it has a fine power level but I don't want to overload on Vehicles and I think I prefer the Ball Lightning vehicle more, if for nothing else but wow factor.
Winding Constrictor is interesting but if I added +1/+1 counter support to another color it would probably be Red and not Black. Shame, G/B could use another option for an archetype.
After I started putting in +1/+1 counter support I find my green 3s to be comfortably full, which is a happy new feeling.
Draft my Peasant Cube.
Pacification Array could be something? 2 is not nothing, but it comes down so much earlier than Icy Manipulator.
Black removal: I agree that Tragic Slip is better, but the new card has to be better than Disfigure. I'm not sure how it compares to Vendetta, but I believe I'd prefer the new spell in more situations. The fact that they printed black removal worth talking about at all is kind of amazing, the last one was Murderous Cut I guess? That's a couple of years old by now.