No, if anything I would be underestimating the value of lifegain or of the card costing 2 and not saccing a clue the turn you cast it.
Coastal piracy's clues cost 0 to sac and it even makes more of them.
I suppose Ongoing Investigation still works if your opponent kills every creature you play, whereas Coastal Piracy doesn't. It costs two more mana each time, but it can do things Piracy can't.
Wait I'm a total idiot, Coastal Piracy lets you draw a card for each connected creature, not just once an attack phase. Without any testing, my opinion is Piracy is probably better than the Investigation. And it's mono-color, which has wayyy more openings to contend for than a guild card.
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Even if people don't have the same distinctions as I do I think it would be fair to say that a good card is better than a solid card.
Having 8 more life against a Jetting Glasskite is 2 more turns to leverage card advantage, and 8 life is probably a pretty low amount for being vs. a control deck.
I'll repeat that Coastal Piracy seems Feast or Famine to me. If you can snowball it then it's insane, but if you can't attack then it's a do nothing. Double U and costing 4 is also a bit annoying considering you probably don't have the largest window for it to be good. Coastal Piracy only draws more if you can get a hit in, which is not guaranteed.
Does anyone have experience with Coastal Piracy? With a brief check I don't see it in anyone's list. And, staying on theme, did anyone test the new blue curse?
If your opponent kills every creature you play, isn't it probable that you are in a matchup where gaining a bunch of life is irrelevant?
Yeah, but Investigation would let you refuel by exiling the creatures that were killed. It's not particularly fast or efficient, but it's not nothing. Either way, it's an aspect of the card that hadn't been brought up, so I thought I'd mention it.
Ongoing Investigation is fantastic. I am also guilty of missing the "Investigate" on the 2nd ability when I first saw the card. Ever since adding it to the cube, it's been an all-star. It's not always good, especially when you get it too late, but early/mid game it can really generate some serious value over the course of the game.
It's a grindy, grindy card and it doesn't take long for it to outvalue an opponent. It's super fun to play with and super obnoxious to play against.
Not only did I misread the card, I purposefully went back and re-read it, because I seemed to remember the card doing something more. But nope, no investigate on the second ability as far as I could see.
Maybe the lack of reminder-text threw me,as I subconsciously expect that to follow every instance of Investigate? This is weird.
Ongoing Investigation is fantastic. I am also guilty of missing the "Investigate" on the 2nd ability when I first saw the card. Ever since adding it to the cube, it's been an all-star. It's not always good, especially when you get it too late, but early/mid game it can really generate some serious value over the course of the game.
It's a grindy, grindy card and it doesn't take long for it to outvalue an opponent. It's super fun to play with and super obnoxious to play against.
Ongoing Investigation is fantastic. I am also guilty of missing the "Investigate" on the 2nd ability when I first saw the card. Ever since adding it to the cube, it's been an all-star. It's not always good, especially when you get it too late, but early/mid game it can really generate some serious value over the course of the game.
It's a grindy, grindy card and it doesn't take long for it to outvalue an opponent. It's super fun to play with and super obnoxious to play against.
In a vacuum, I think Trygon is stronger, but it's not super exciting. We have Acidic Slime, Conclave Naturalists, Reclamation Sage, Conclave Naturalists, etc for that effect... why waste a guild spot on it? I only use guild spots for specific effects if the cube needs it. (Firespout, Spontaneous Combustion, etc).
I think Shardless Agent has cooler upsides... into Epochrasite? Into a 2 power flier? Into a ramp spell? Definitely a more fun card imo.
I missed the investigate because having a keyword snuck in there probably caught me like those "optical illusions" that exploit the shortcutty way people read.
It was a lone word where the cost was written, so I just lumped it in with "text I dont have to read"
Swordtooth, Charioteer, and Boar are about all equally mediocre.
Crop-Cap is good, but Helix is very cuttable. Not like Sky Terror is amazing either, though.
Cheers! Yeah, that was about the conclusion I was coming to as well...
... at some point it just becomes change for the sake of change. The Gruul stuff I don't think is terribly bedded down yet, so it might as well stay as is for a while. I was feeling the same about Warleader's Helix being the Boros cut, but again, is it worth the effort? Probably not.
It does depend on the particular set up.. for example my cube has a million tokens which makes Rageing Swordtooth and Honored Crop-Captain really strong.
For a cube of size 385, with 55 cards of each colour:
The probability of getting a pack of 15 cards that has zero cards of colour#1 is:
Hypergeom(0,15,55,385)=0.0945
Thus the probability of having a pack with more than zero cards of colour #1 is:
P(C_1>0)=1-0.0945=0.9055
And thus, the probability that a pack has at least one card from each colour is:
P(C_all>0)= (P(C_1>0))^5=0.9055^5=0.6087
The inverse is that the probability that a pack has zero cards from at least one colour is:
P(C_all!>0) = 1-0.6087= 0.3913
Or, in other words: A pack will be 4 or fewer colours around 40% of the time. I know this happens more frequently than I like, but that sounds a bit high..?
You can see this more easily if you tried that same calculation in a cube with 4 cards in it, one white, one red, and two artifacts, and then try to get both colored cards in a pack size of 3. You can easily verify in your head that the chances of getting both the red and white card in the pack are 1/2, because there is a 50% chance that either one of them will be the lone card excluded from the pack.
But now lets apply the process you just went through in this new situation.
The probability of getting at least 1 red card in a pack of 3 is 3/4.
If you took that probability and just applied it to the white card you'd get another 3/4 and multiplying these two together doesn't get you 1/2 (even though we know 1/2 is correct). What you need is to figure out the odds of getting a white card in your remaining 2 pack slots from the remaining 3 cards in the cube: which is just 2/3. Now you have it, as 2/3x3/4 is 1/2.
So what you need to do is run 5 different calculations and then multiply their answers all together at the end. Essentially the same process you did, but your pack sizes have to decrease every time (15, 14, 13, etc) and your cube sizes have to also decrease every time (385, 384, 383, etc).
At the end, your new probability should be significantly smaller than your old one because each numerator is decreasing at a faster rate than the denominators are.
You end up with (90.55% x 88.97% x 87.13% x 84.97% x 82.44%) = 49.17%.
Less than half of all packs get you at least one card in each color.
So then the annoying reality is that *over* half of all 15 card packs are missing a color.
The most common result is that 4 packs per round are missing a color.
All calculations from here assume every round has 4 packs of incomplete color representstion (it is about equally likely that 5 packs will have this problem as it is that 3 will, so I'm not fudging the numbers too much here)
Also, I'm using jovian's list,
which probably isn't so different ratio-wise from everyone elses
There is an approximately 81% chance that 2 of these four packs are missing the same color. So if there's only a 19% chance that any particular round isn't missing a particular color in two of its packs, that means that the odds that that none of your rounds have this problem are 19%x19%x19% = less than 1%!
We're not done though.
Theres a 74% chance that at least one of the other two rounds will also have 2 packs that are missing that same color.
I repeat, 74% of all drafts have two rounds where at least 2 packs are missing the same color. How shafted is that drafter?
Not as shafted as the guy who doesn't have his color show up in two packs every round, which comes up just shy of 1/4 of the time.
Think about that. About 1/4 of the time one color just doesn't exist in at least 1/4 of the packs.
I draft two packs with 20 card packs, for two rounds. 15 card packs is the number wizards ended up giving us sorta arbitrarily, and they artificially make sure we have color balance in packs. Doing 20 card packs gives you a 74% chance of getting every color represented, a far cry from the about 50% the traditional method gets you.
I think these calculations show how flawed the 3 packs of 15 method really is for us, and it's subtle enough that people probably just don't notice it.
When you get to P1p2 and there's no card in the pack matching your first pick, then you might assume the player passing to you just took the lone representative of your color from the pack. But theres a 10% chance that the pack just didn't have any cards of that color to begin with. That's crazy, and that's also happening to every player at the table who didn't take an artifact. This neans that 57% of the time, someone at the table is getting passed a pack for their P1p2 that never had a chance of having their first pick' color represented at all.
Btw
The math you accidentally calculated at the end there (where you raised the probability of getting at least one card to the fifth) is actually the probability of getting five packs in a row with a particular color.
Coastal piracy's clues cost 0 to sac and it even makes more of them.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Warning: Not for the durdly-hearted!
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
Having 8 more life against a Jetting Glasskite is 2 more turns to leverage card advantage, and 8 life is probably a pretty low amount for being vs. a control deck.
I'll repeat that Coastal Piracy seems Feast or Famine to me. If you can snowball it then it's insane, but if you can't attack then it's a do nothing. Double U and costing 4 is also a bit annoying considering you probably don't have the largest window for it to be good. Coastal Piracy only draws more if you can get a hit in, which is not guaranteed.
Does anyone have experience with Coastal Piracy? With a brief check I don't see it in anyone's list. And, staying on theme, did anyone test the new blue curse?
Yeah, but Investigation would let you refuel by exiling the creatures that were killed. It's not particularly fast or efficient, but it's not nothing. Either way, it's an aspect of the card that hadn't been brought up, so I thought I'd mention it.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
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Well then
Turns out I can't read
Time for me to play ongoing investigation
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Warning: Not for the durdly-hearted!
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
It's a grindy, grindy card and it doesn't take long for it to outvalue an opponent. It's super fun to play with and super obnoxious to play against.
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Not only did I misread the card, I purposefully went back and re-read it, because I seemed to remember the card doing something more. But nope, no investigate on the second ability as far as I could see.
Maybe the lack of reminder-text threw me,as I subconsciously expect that to follow every instance of Investigate? This is weird.
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
I would like to try Ongoing Investigation, would you cut trygon predator or shardless agent?
In a vacuum, I think Trygon is stronger, but it's not super exciting. We have Acidic Slime, Conclave Naturalists, Reclamation Sage, Conclave Naturalists, etc for that effect... why waste a guild spot on it? I only use guild spots for specific effects if the cube needs it. (Firespout, Spontaneous Combustion, etc).
I think Shardless Agent has cooler upsides... into Epochrasite? Into a 2 power flier? Into a ramp spell? Definitely a more fun card imo.
My Peasant Cube thread !!! (380 cards)
Draft my Peasant Cube on Cube Cobra !!!
It was a lone word where the cost was written, so I just lumped it in with "text I dont have to read"
And I reread it too
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
360 Newbies' Peasant cube with cut-down abilities (so there's no treasure, enrage or explore coming in with Ixalan).
Would you...
My Stupidly Large Number of Current Decks
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Cube: the Gittening (My Multiplayer Cube) - MTGS Cube List | @ CubeTutor
The N00b Cube (Peasant cube for new players) - MTGS Cube List | @ CubeTutor
Crop-Cap is good, but Helix is very cuttable. Not like Sky Terror is amazing either, though.
Cheers! Yeah, that was about the conclusion I was coming to as well...
... at some point it just becomes change for the sake of change. The Gruul stuff I don't think is terribly bedded down yet, so it might as well stay as is for a while. I was feeling the same about Warleader's Helix being the Boros cut, but again, is it worth the effort? Probably not.
My Stupidly Large Number of Current Decks
PucaTrade with me!
The Multiplayer Power Rankings
Cube: the Gittening (My Multiplayer Cube) - MTGS Cube List | @ CubeTutor
The N00b Cube (Peasant cube for new players) - MTGS Cube List | @ CubeTutor
It does depend on the particular set up.. for example my cube has a million tokens which makes Rageing Swordtooth and Honored Crop-Captain really strong.
Pioneer:UR Pheonix
Modern:U Mono U Tron
EDH
GB Glissa, the traitor: Army of Cans
UW Dragonlord Ojutai: Dragonlord NOjutai
UWGDerevi, Empyrial Tactician "you cannot fight the storm"
R Zirilan of the claw. The solution to every problem is dragons
UB Etrata, the Silencer Cloning assassination
Peasant cube: Cards I own
For a cube of size 385, with 55 cards of each colour:
The probability of getting a pack of 15 cards that has zero cards of colour#1 is:
Hypergeom(0,15,55,385)=0.0945
Thus the probability of having a pack with more than zero cards of colour #1 is:
P(C_1>0)=1-0.0945=0.9055
And thus, the probability that a pack has at least one card from each colour is:
P(C_all>0)= (P(C_1>0))^5=0.9055^5=0.6087
The inverse is that the probability that a pack has zero cards from at least one colour is:
P(C_all!>0) = 1-0.6087= 0.3913
Or, in other words: A pack will be 4 or fewer colours around 40% of the time. I know this happens more frequently than I like, but that sounds a bit high..?
Cubetutor Peasant'ish-Funbox
Project: Khans of Tarkir Cube (cubetutor)
But now lets apply the process you just went through in this new situation.
The probability of getting at least 1 red card in a pack of 3 is 3/4.
If you took that probability and just applied it to the white card you'd get another 3/4 and multiplying these two together doesn't get you 1/2 (even though we know 1/2 is correct). What you need is to figure out the odds of getting a white card in your remaining 2 pack slots from the remaining 3 cards in the cube: which is just 2/3. Now you have it, as 2/3x3/4 is 1/2.
So what you need to do is run 5 different calculations and then multiply their answers all together at the end. Essentially the same process you did, but your pack sizes have to decrease every time (15, 14, 13, etc) and your cube sizes have to also decrease every time (385, 384, 383, etc).
At the end, your new probability should be significantly smaller than your old one because each numerator is decreasing at a faster rate than the denominators are.
You end up with (90.55% x 88.97% x 87.13% x 84.97% x 82.44%) = 49.17%.
Less than half of all packs get you at least one card in each color.
So then the annoying reality is that *over* half of all 15 card packs are missing a color.
The most common result is that 4 packs per round are missing a color.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article
Also, I'm using jovian's list,
which probably isn't so different ratio-wise from everyone elses
There is an approximately 81% chance that 2 of these four packs are missing the same color. So if there's only a 19% chance that any particular round isn't missing a particular color in two of its packs, that means that the odds that that none of your rounds have this problem are 19%x19%x19% = less than 1%!
We're not done though.
Theres a 74% chance that at least one of the other two rounds will also have 2 packs that are missing that same color.
I repeat, 74% of all drafts have two rounds where at least 2 packs are missing the same color. How shafted is that drafter?
Not as shafted as the guy who doesn't have his color show up in two packs every round, which comes up just shy of 1/4 of the time.
Think about that. About 1/4 of the time one color just doesn't exist in at least 1/4 of the packs.
I draft two packs with 20 card packs, for two rounds. 15 card packs is the number wizards ended up giving us sorta arbitrarily, and they artificially make sure we have color balance in packs. Doing 20 card packs gives you a 74% chance of getting every color represented, a far cry from the about 50% the traditional method gets you.
I think these calculations show how flawed the 3 packs of 15 method really is for us, and it's subtle enough that people probably just don't notice it.
When you get to P1p2 and there's no card in the pack matching your first pick, then you might assume the player passing to you just took the lone representative of your color from the pack. But theres a 10% chance that the pack just didn't have any cards of that color to begin with. That's crazy, and that's also happening to every player at the table who didn't take an artifact. This neans that 57% of the time, someone at the table is getting passed a pack for their P1p2 that never had a chance of having their first pick' color represented at all.
Btw
The math you accidentally calculated at the end there (where you raised the probability of getting at least one card to the fifth) is actually the probability of getting five packs in a row with a particular color.
My CubeCobra (draft 20 card packs, 2 packs.)
430, Peasant, Very Unpowered
Why you should take your hybrids out of your gold section
Manamath Article