I'm never gonna pass up the chance on a card selection cantrip that isn't feel-bad IMO.
I just hate that it's a rare Anticipate. More cash grab zzzz....
Just wanna say that I think it's rated, not overrated. Try shuffling up a pile of cards; I don't think it'll miss. It won't get you what you want like a tutor, but it's what you want like an Anticipate. When you get a comparative example, this becomes very good.
Let's assume we're playing a deck with 11-12 creatures, 1-2 planeswalkers (so 14 "hits"), 17 lands (also "hits"), and 8 other cards in a combination of instants, sorceries, artifacts and enchantments. I don't think that's an unreasonable skeleton for a typical green deck.
The opening hand contains an Oath of Nissa and a land that produces G (among 5 other random cards). That leaves a composition of 30 remaining "hits" from a random pool of 38 total other cards. Since the other 5 in the hand will be a random distribution of those 38 in the pool, these calculations will be based off 30/38 cards.
The chances of Oath = 3 "hits": 48.13%
The chances of Oath ≥ 2 "hits": 89.38%
The chances of Oath ≥ 1 "hits": 99.34%
The chances of Oath = 0 "hits": 00.66%
So what does that mean?
About half the time you cast this spell, it will select any of your top 3. That's incredible and puts it about on par with a green Preordain. Sometimes better because you can bottom both other cards, and see the 3rd before choosing; sometimes worse because you can't choose to top-top 2+ great draws.
Roughly 9/10 times, this card will be at least as good as Sleight of Hand, since you can choose 1 of 2 cards for one mana, which is fine. Sometimes better because you can bottom a 2nd unwanted card; sometimes worse because you won't be able to select certain spells from it.
Unfortunately, there will be times (~10%) where there will only be one card to pick from, and it's worse than being forced to cycle a spell at sorcery speed for G.
And then there's the catastrophic miss, which will happen slightly less than 1/100 iterations, but it can completely blank.
..........
Interesting. What do I do with that information? Would you play a green cantrip that ~90% of the time will be a hybrid of Sleight of Hand & Preordain? Probably, yes. Even with the ~10% chance of it being a bad cycler or ~1% complete blank? That makes it harder. But what else is there to consider?
The fact that it's an enchantment AND can bottom unwanted cards from the top of your library makes it interact positively with several cards in the cube. This includes commonly played cards like Kor Skyfisher, Flickerwisp, Venser, Shaper Savant, Brainstorm, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Sylvan Library, Sensei's Divining Top, Scroll Rack, Smokestack and a handful of others. This certainly adds value, and decks containing any of these cards (especially in multiples) have ways to mitigate the ~11% chance of the card being less than a serviceable cantrip.
Additionally, the card fixes your mana for casting planeswalkers. Meh. It will occasionally be useful in functioning as a 2nd source of colored mana for that Liliana of the Veil, Koth of the Hammer or Elspeth, Knight-Errant in your final 40. But green decks are usually loaded with good options for mana fixing, and the effect is too inconsistent in this format to allow you to really stretch your mana just because you have it (unlike in constructed where a 4x Oath of Nissa can do some reliable things for your manabase). Randomly useful, but unreliable and I don't think it contributes as much to the value of the card as the interaction element does. It could randomly be great in a 4-5 color planeswalker control deck (which does come together sometimes) but simply having this one card in your deck won't allow you to bastardize your manabase.
..........
My knee-jerk reaction was that this card was going to be a miss. But after analyzing it further, I think it has a pretty good chance of being an above-average cantrip effect for green.
e: Also, thanks for Sliver Lord for jump-starting the numbers evaluation above.
Thanks for that. I think the fact that this won't require that much work to be good in the average green deck bodes well for its cube future. The question then becomes: what kind of card do you cut for this? Green aggro creatures are hard enough to come by as is, and mana dorks are essential to green's power level. Maybe something higher up on the mana curve? You can't get too soft on threat density.
Broken down, the card seems stronger than I initially gave it credit for. Card selection can be an issue for those green decks if they don't get Library or other non-green card draw/selection effects, so perhaps this could be a good tool to help heavier green deck's hands that aren't great but are better than a mulligan. The cool blink interactions probably put it over the top for consideration, as it slots into those decks nicely. It'll be interesting down the road to see what the cut is if/when the next sick elf is released.
Sylvan Library is great because it gives you the flexibility of drawing more cards to dig deep without the help of shuffle effects. Otherwise it's just Mirri's Guile which is not a good card. Oath of Nissa is fine but I've never been a fan Seek the Wilds type cards. Even though you'll probably draw a card every time, unlike Preordain, you may not be getting the card you want/need. I like my draw to be unconditional.
It is interesting that this effect comes on a permenant but that's a small upside to a borderline card. I would have preferred if it came on a 1/1 elf or if the cards were put into the graveyard instead. As is, I'll pass. It's a fine card, and quite abuseable in constructed decks that can play multiple planeswalkers and Oath's, but seems lackluster in a singleton format.
Let's say Seek the Wilds was an instant and looked at the top ~6 instead? Making it a green Impulse ~50% the time and an Anticipate ~90% of the time in terms of pure selection value. Wouldn't it be worth a closer look at that point?
I think that's the biggest difference between Oath of Nissa and other green cards we've seen in the same vein, is that it does a much better job of being a comparably powerful cantrip effect by cube standards than anything else we've seen.
Thanks for the calculations wtwlf. It certainly seems like a strong effect for decks that can abuse the trigger.
Just for curiousity, how are the chances calculated?
The chance for 3 hits is: 30/38 * 29/37 * 28/36 = 48.13%
Similarly for 0 hits: 8/38 * 7/37 * 6/36 = 00.66%
I'd like to know how you calculated the chances for >=2 hits and >=1 hits? Using the binomial distribution or is there a more simple method?
I just don't think this card is very good. My planeswalker and creature heavy decks want to be casting dorks turn 1 and don't particularly care about cantripping. Cards like Ponder are already mediocre Cube cards and are BY FAR the most useful in spell-heavy combo and control decks. I have a pretty large Cube, and I would want the permanent effect on the enchantment to be more relevant in order for this card to make the cut. The Jace Oath, on the other hand, is very exciting for my Cube.
My planeswalker and creature heavy decks want to be casting dorks turn 1 and don't particularly care about cantripping.
While this is the case on T1 when you have a mana dork in hand, the inverse is also true. On T6, this is a far better card than a mana dork would be. Also, nobody's suggesting cutting a mana dork to play it or include it in the cube. OoN has the same estimated value at any point you cast it in the game; the same can't be said for a mana dork. You can just play the mana dork when you usually would, and find another place in the curve to fit in the cantrip. My UG decks love Preordain and friends, and statistically should get a similar performance from OoN.
Quote from Patrunkenphat7 »
Cards like Ponder are already mediocre Cube cards...
We'll just have to agree to disagree here. I've found them to be both powerful and invaluable. I'm glad that a non-blue color even has something that closely resembles a 1cc cantrip.
Ponder, preordain and brainstorm are all great cards... I'm thinking of testing this card out even though I don't have much bounce. This cards strength is its versatility. You get to use it to find a dork or land turn one, you get to use it when you have a 3 drop on turn four to search for your 5 drop, or search for your finisher. Ponder and preordain in my playgroup are the most underestimated cards.
Surprised people are so appalled by Ponder being labeled a mediocre Cube card. It didn't even crack the top 20, nor was it an honorable mention in the 2014 blue rankings. I think this shows that Ponder is, by definition, a mediocre Cube card. That doesn't mean that it is bad, just nothing spectacular. This is relevant because it's not like you are comparing a new Planeswalker to a better planeswalker like Jace TMS and trying to decide if the ways in which it is worse make it worth it; you are trying to justify playing a card that is significantly worse than a middle-of-the-road roleplayer, so either the upsides really need to make it worth it or the role it fills needs to be something that Cubes have been looking for. Situational green cantrip? It's just not something I've ever thought about adding to my Cube, and actually a lot of those types of cards already exist.
Ponder is so much better than this Oath because the decks that utilize Ponder the best are spell-based combo and control decks. When I am drafting those decks I am very happy to see Ponder. Ponder slots in just fine to decks like UG, etc, but in those archetypes it's more of a 10th/11th pick "oh cool, I guess I'll add this playable Ponder to my deck." It's not an important piece that you are actively looking to pick up early for those decks unless they are unusually clunky and you see Ponder early third pack.
Oath of Nissa doesn't look great to me because there is no archetype that I am drafting where I see Oath of Nissa third/fourth/fifth pick and say, "sweet, this is exactly what I need for this deck." It's just a pretty decent card that one person at the table is happy to slot into their deck, and those types of cards usually draft poorly. The biggest mistake I see in the discussion surrounding this card is crunching all the numbers to see how well this card works in the one big green creature deck that would play this card, when I would first ask if this card is worth a Cube slot even if the numbers show it's probably "playable" in that deck.
The top 20 really matters if you are running a 360. Then the top 20 is almost half of your cube color section (It's usually 49 to 50 at this size). At 450, a 21-40 card can be decent as well.
I'm currently running only Preordain, but I might add in Brainstorm and Ponder if I go up to 450, and definitely if I go up to 540.
Again, mediocre does not mean "bad." It means exactly what you have demonstrated - Cube playable, but nothing spectacular.
I don't think anyone is arguing that OoN is a cube staple for the smallest of cubes. I don't think it will make the cut in those cubes, but for a 720 cube like mine, it looks promising.
It didn't even crack the top 20, nor was it an honorable mention in the 2014 blue rankings. I think this shows that Ponder is, by definition, a mediocre Cube card.
Not being one of the 20 best cube cards in a color does not immediately define it as "mediocre". Or anything close to that assumption.
Quote from Patrunkenphat7 »
Oath of Nissa doesn't look great to me because there is no archetype that I am drafting where I see Oath of Nissa third/fourth/fifth pick and say, "sweet, this is exactly what I need for this deck." It's just a pretty decent card that one person at the table is happy to slot into their deck, and those types of cards usually draft poorly. The biggest mistake I see in the discussion surrounding this card is crunching all the numbers to see how well this card works in the one big green creature deck that would play this card, when I would first ask if this card is worth a Cube slot even if the numbers show it's probably "playable" in that deck.
What? So you're saying that any card that isn't archetype-defining isn't worth cubing with? Is Burst Lightning a bad cube card because it's only going to get played in decks that are otherwise already playing red mana? I think a random green deck would be happy to consider a cantrip effect about as often as a random red deck would play a tier-2 burn spell.
If the numbers show that a card has a high probability of functioning well in the average deck containing its color of mana, why would it not be worth considering for inclusion?
Quote from Patrunkenphat7 »
Situational green cantrip? It's just not something I've ever thought about adding to my Cube, and actually a lot of those types of cards already exist.
We haven't thought of adding them before, because we've never had any good ones before. It's like saying you wouldn't play a black Shatter effect because the only option we've had in the past is Gate to Phyrexia.
It didn't even crack the top 20, nor was it an honorable mention in the 2014 blue rankings. I think this shows that Ponder is, by definition, a mediocre Cube card.
Not being one of the 20 best cube cards in a color does not immediately define it as "mediocre". Or anything close to that assumption.
I said "mediocre Cube card." Another way of saying this would be if I said, "Ponder is an 'OK' Cube card - not one of the best cards in Cube and not one of the worst."
The Burst Lightning comparison is very odd and doesn't make much sense. There are plenty of situations where I need some 1-mana removal in any of my red decks and I think, "oh sweet, this is exactly what I needed" when I see Burst Lightning. Not the same for green oath which probably slides into your deck as no higher than the 20th playable card in your list, and no one (maximum one other person) in the draft could have even played it in their deck.
You've never come across a cantrip and felt like it's just what your deck needed? It happens all the time!
Edit: And why is Oath only playable by 1 other person at the table? Do people not play green where you're from? There's just as much demand for a playable green card as a playable red card.
You've never come across a cantrip and felt like it's just what your deck needed? It happens all the time!
Edit: And why is Oath only playable by 1 other person at the table? Do people not play green where you're from? There's just as much demand for a filler green card as a filler red card.
Oh yes absolutely which brings us back around to my main point that the decks that make me actively happy to play a cantrip usually have spell-based combo synergies or are control shells. Creature-heavy "good stuff" decks are usually the ones where a cantrip is just a fine, playable card, and those are the only decks where you would play the green oath.
I am interested to see how the card tests for people and would be happy to try it if it proves to be a solid card. I like the combo potential of the oaths, and I will certainly add it if I am wrong.
edit: Sorry didn't see your edit, but I am making this assumption because some of the green decks are combo, ramp control, etc where the creature density makes this card subpar for those decks. I think there are maximum 2 players playing creature-heavy green decks that would actually want this oath.
I think Ponder, Preordain and Brainstorm are essential cards in my cube and all are drafted fairly highly. I like them so much in fact that I run them over a couple of the cards that did make the top 20 list. The cheap cantrips make blue decks run smoother and very very rarely do they not make the final deck. I like the effects so much that I've recently added in Gitaxian Probe and Serum Visions.
I didn't consider Oath of Nissa until I saw wtwlf's numbers. Unlike blue, green does have strong turn 1 plays, but this is a nice alternative that I find very intriguing even for smaller cubes.
I am certainly considering this more given the discussion but I do see both sides. I frequently am excited to add a cantrip to the blue deck I am drafting. But my blue decks have things like delve, important answer cards, snapcaster, young pyromancer, delver etc....They also don't have turn one plays, needs cheap spells to leave mana open, worry about hitting land drops etc.
Don't get me wrong I have put cantrips in creature heavy U/G decks but there are nothing like when they appear in my U/R counter burn deck featuring the twin combo. I have 0 enchantment maters effects vs. tons of instant and sorcery and graveyard effects.
I like the card parity here but my green decks are more excited by finding a specific toolbox creature. Are those considering this card playing Worldly Tutor, Sylvan Tutor, and Green Sun's Zenith? Green also features very interesting selection stuff like Sylvan Library and Cream of the Crop as well as Survival of the Fittest. How much room do we have for all these things? For me that is a big question when I think about adding a 'mediocre' card.
If this adds something different for you, try it out and let me know how it goes, but since this isn't strapped to a creature (even a 1/1) or dumping cards in the graveyard, I'm out.
My biggest fear is when I am flooding out. Blue cantrips almost always find me some gas(a spell of some sort) when I have lots of land. What happens to the numbers when land is no longer something I want to hit? Sure I cantrip but to what end?
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Essentially turns kor skyfisher into 2/3 flying + draw a card for 2, without disrupting your curve. Pretty snazzy.
Even if I decide this isn't playable at the moment, if there are more powerful interactions like this, it may be worth it to watch for the future.
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I just hate that it's a rare Anticipate. More cash grab zzzz....
Just wanna say that I think it's rated, not overrated. Try shuffling up a pile of cards; I don't think it'll miss. It won't get you what you want like a tutor, but it's what you want like an Anticipate. When you get a comparative example, this becomes very good.
UR Melek, Izzet ParagonUR, B Shirei, Shizo's CaretakerB, R Jaya Ballard, Task MageR,RW Tajic, Blade of the LegionRW, UB Lazav, Dimir MastermindUB, UB Circu, Dimir LobotomistUB, RWU Zedruu the GreatheartedRWU, GUBThe MimeoplasmGUB, UGExperiment Kraj UG, WDarien, King of KjeldorW, BMarrow-GnawerB, WBGKarador, Ghost ChieftainWBG, UTeferi, Temporal ArchmageU, GWUDerevi, Empyrial TacticianGWU, RDaretti, Scrap SavantR, UTalrand, Sky SummonerU, GEzuri, Renegade LeaderG, WUBRGReaper KingWUBRG, RGXenagos, God of RevelsRG, CKozilek, Butcher of TruthC, WUBRGGeneral TazriWUBRG, GTitania, Protector of ArgothG
Let's assume we're playing a deck with 11-12 creatures, 1-2 planeswalkers (so 14 "hits"), 17 lands (also "hits"), and 8 other cards in a combination of instants, sorceries, artifacts and enchantments. I don't think that's an unreasonable skeleton for a typical green deck.
The opening hand contains an Oath of Nissa and a land that produces G (among 5 other random cards). That leaves a composition of 30 remaining "hits" from a random pool of 38 total other cards. Since the other 5 in the hand will be a random distribution of those 38 in the pool, these calculations will be based off 30/38 cards.
The chances of Oath = 3 "hits": 48.13%
The chances of Oath ≥ 2 "hits": 89.38%
The chances of Oath ≥ 1 "hits": 99.34%
The chances of Oath = 0 "hits": 00.66%
So what does that mean?
About half the time you cast this spell, it will select any of your top 3. That's incredible and puts it about on par with a green Preordain. Sometimes better because you can bottom both other cards, and see the 3rd before choosing; sometimes worse because you can't choose to top-top 2+ great draws.
Roughly 9/10 times, this card will be at least as good as Sleight of Hand, since you can choose 1 of 2 cards for one mana, which is fine. Sometimes better because you can bottom a 2nd unwanted card; sometimes worse because you won't be able to select certain spells from it.
Unfortunately, there will be times (~10%) where there will only be one card to pick from, and it's worse than being forced to cycle a spell at sorcery speed for G.
And then there's the catastrophic miss, which will happen slightly less than 1/100 iterations, but it can completely blank.
..........
Interesting. What do I do with that information? Would you play a green cantrip that ~90% of the time will be a hybrid of Sleight of Hand & Preordain? Probably, yes. Even with the ~10% chance of it being a bad cycler or ~1% complete blank? That makes it harder. But what else is there to consider?
The fact that it's an enchantment AND can bottom unwanted cards from the top of your library makes it interact positively with several cards in the cube. This includes commonly played cards like Kor Skyfisher, Flickerwisp, Venser, Shaper Savant, Brainstorm, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Sylvan Library, Sensei's Divining Top, Scroll Rack, Smokestack and a handful of others. This certainly adds value, and decks containing any of these cards (especially in multiples) have ways to mitigate the ~11% chance of the card being less than a serviceable cantrip.
Additionally, the card fixes your mana for casting planeswalkers. Meh. It will occasionally be useful in functioning as a 2nd source of colored mana for that Liliana of the Veil, Koth of the Hammer or Elspeth, Knight-Errant in your final 40. But green decks are usually loaded with good options for mana fixing, and the effect is too inconsistent in this format to allow you to really stretch your mana just because you have it (unlike in constructed where a 4x Oath of Nissa can do some reliable things for your manabase). Randomly useful, but unreliable and I don't think it contributes as much to the value of the card as the interaction element does. It could randomly be great in a 4-5 color planeswalker control deck (which does come together sometimes) but simply having this one card in your deck won't allow you to bastardize your manabase.
..........
My knee-jerk reaction was that this card was going to be a miss. But after analyzing it further, I think it has a pretty good chance of being an above-average cantrip effect for green.
e: Also, thanks for Sliver Lord for jump-starting the numbers evaluation above.
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It is interesting that this effect comes on a permenant but that's a small upside to a borderline card. I would have preferred if it came on a 1/1 elf or if the cards were put into the graveyard instead. As is, I'll pass. It's a fine card, and quite abuseable in constructed decks that can play multiple planeswalkers and Oath's, but seems lackluster in a singleton format.
I think that's the biggest difference between Oath of Nissa and other green cards we've seen in the same vein, is that it does a much better job of being a comparably powerful cantrip effect by cube standards than anything else we've seen.
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Just for curiousity, how are the chances calculated?
The chance for 3 hits is: 30/38 * 29/37 * 28/36 = 48.13%
Similarly for 0 hits: 8/38 * 7/37 * 6/36 = 00.66%
I'd like to know how you calculated the chances for >=2 hits and >=1 hits? Using the binomial distribution or is there a more simple method?
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While this is the case on T1 when you have a mana dork in hand, the inverse is also true. On T6, this is a far better card than a mana dork would be. Also, nobody's suggesting cutting a mana dork to play it or include it in the cube. OoN has the same estimated value at any point you cast it in the game; the same can't be said for a mana dork. You can just play the mana dork when you usually would, and find another place in the curve to fit in the cantrip. My UG decks love Preordain and friends, and statistically should get a similar performance from OoN.
We'll just have to agree to disagree here. I've found them to be both powerful and invaluable. I'm glad that a non-blue color even has something that closely resembles a 1cc cantrip.
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thats my cube
*Head Explodes*
Ponder is so much better than this Oath because the decks that utilize Ponder the best are spell-based combo and control decks. When I am drafting those decks I am very happy to see Ponder. Ponder slots in just fine to decks like UG, etc, but in those archetypes it's more of a 10th/11th pick "oh cool, I guess I'll add this playable Ponder to my deck." It's not an important piece that you are actively looking to pick up early for those decks unless they are unusually clunky and you see Ponder early third pack.
Oath of Nissa doesn't look great to me because there is no archetype that I am drafting where I see Oath of Nissa third/fourth/fifth pick and say, "sweet, this is exactly what I need for this deck." It's just a pretty decent card that one person at the table is happy to slot into their deck, and those types of cards usually draft poorly. The biggest mistake I see in the discussion surrounding this card is crunching all the numbers to see how well this card works in the one big green creature deck that would play this card, when I would first ask if this card is worth a Cube slot even if the numbers show it's probably "playable" in that deck.
I'm currently running only Preordain, but I might add in Brainstorm and Ponder if I go up to 450, and definitely if I go up to 540.
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Not being one of the 20 best cube cards in a color does not immediately define it as "mediocre". Or anything close to that assumption.
What? So you're saying that any card that isn't archetype-defining isn't worth cubing with? Is Burst Lightning a bad cube card because it's only going to get played in decks that are otherwise already playing red mana? I think a random green deck would be happy to consider a cantrip effect about as often as a random red deck would play a tier-2 burn spell.
If the numbers show that a card has a high probability of functioning well in the average deck containing its color of mana, why would it not be worth considering for inclusion?
We haven't thought of adding them before, because we've never had any good ones before. It's like saying you wouldn't play a black Shatter effect because the only option we've had in the past is Gate to Phyrexia.
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I said "mediocre Cube card." Another way of saying this would be if I said, "Ponder is an 'OK' Cube card - not one of the best cards in Cube and not one of the worst."
The Burst Lightning comparison is very odd and doesn't make much sense. There are plenty of situations where I need some 1-mana removal in any of my red decks and I think, "oh sweet, this is exactly what I needed" when I see Burst Lightning. Not the same for green oath which probably slides into your deck as no higher than the 20th playable card in your list, and no one (maximum one other person) in the draft could have even played it in their deck.
Edit: And why is Oath only playable by 1 other person at the table? Do people not play green where you're from? There's just as much demand for a playable green card as a playable red card.
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Oh yes absolutely which brings us back around to my main point that the decks that make me actively happy to play a cantrip usually have spell-based combo synergies or are control shells. Creature-heavy "good stuff" decks are usually the ones where a cantrip is just a fine, playable card, and those are the only decks where you would play the green oath.
I am interested to see how the card tests for people and would be happy to try it if it proves to be a solid card. I like the combo potential of the oaths, and I will certainly add it if I am wrong.
edit: Sorry didn't see your edit, but I am making this assumption because some of the green decks are combo, ramp control, etc where the creature density makes this card subpar for those decks. I think there are maximum 2 players playing creature-heavy green decks that would actually want this oath.
I didn't consider Oath of Nissa until I saw wtwlf's numbers. Unlike blue, green does have strong turn 1 plays, but this is a nice alternative that I find very intriguing even for smaller cubes.
Don't get me wrong I have put cantrips in creature heavy U/G decks but there are nothing like when they appear in my U/R counter burn deck featuring the twin combo. I have 0 enchantment maters effects vs. tons of instant and sorcery and graveyard effects.
I like the card parity here but my green decks are more excited by finding a specific toolbox creature. Are those considering this card playing Worldly Tutor, Sylvan Tutor, and Green Sun's Zenith? Green also features very interesting selection stuff like Sylvan Library and Cream of the Crop as well as Survival of the Fittest. How much room do we have for all these things? For me that is a big question when I think about adding a 'mediocre' card.
If this adds something different for you, try it out and let me know how it goes, but since this isn't strapped to a creature (even a 1/1) or dumping cards in the graveyard, I'm out.
My biggest fear is when I am flooding out. Blue cantrips almost always find me some gas(a spell of some sort) when I have lots of land. What happens to the numbers when land is no longer something I want to hit? Sure I cantrip but to what end?