Look at the top six cards of your library. Put up to two creature cards with converted mana cost 3 or less from among them onto the battlefield. Put the rest on the bottom of your library in any order
I like that it's an instant, and that it's easily splashable. Thoughts?
The card is ridiculous. Maybe not for Cube, but someone, somewhere's going to break this wide open. Even in the context of Cube, digging 6 deep and dropping 2 dudes at instant speed is card advantage and a tempo swing. I absolutely love this card.
In a deck with 10 targets it can hit, assuming you use 4 land cards to cast it, it has a 56% chance of finding 2 creatures. Which means that there's a 44% chance that this will only hit 1 (or fewer) creatures. Seems risky, especially since that 1 creature could be a mana dork or something, since you're counting all your 1-3cc creature cards. And 11% of the time it "misses", you'll hit 0 creatures, which is a big miss.
I think this card is good in Cube, but it's main home is in Modern. However, my friends got me on the preorder hype and I'll be trying this in Cube. The best thing to take away from this card is that it's green card selection at instant speed which is very uncommon to see for green. That alone sells me on the card. Sure the card is not an auto-slot in most decks, but the effect is rare enough for green that I will test it in Cube.
This only belongs in an aggro deck (so if you don't support green aggro this has no place). In a hard aggro deck with 40% of your deck being creatures costing 3 or less, assuming you drew 11 cards when you cast this on turn 4, you have on average 0.4*29 =~ 12 targets left in your deck, which means
~ 2.6% chance that you get no target
~ 15.6% chance that you get 1 target
~ 81.7% chance that you get 2 or more targets
That's the best case deck and more optimistic than wtwlf's numbers. In such a deck this card would be good, but that's the only deck, and probably not even a commonly played deck, where it would be good. Last draft I played such a deck and would have loved this card, but overall I agree it's too narrow.
I think it could be good in the zoo naya, gruul, or selesnya decks, not just green aggro. But still too narrow. I compare it to something like harmonize, and it loses in my cube, and I don't play that.
Being an instant gives you the chance to keep 4 mana open on a crucial turn. If the opponent wraths, you instantly repopulate the board and have attackers ready on your next turn. If he doesn't, you can still add to your board position and haven't lost a turn. You can also use it to get around counters.
That said, only looking 6 cards deep means that you won't always get the BCS of bringing creatures with a combined cost between 4-6 into play, even in a straight aggro deck. Since the effect is already restricted to putting no more than two creatures onto the battlefield, it really should have looked 8 cards deep to be worth it for cube.
In a hard aggro deck that has 14 creatures ranging from 1-3 mana you hit the 75%+ threshold for success rate, which I feel would be the break-over point for inclusion. That's doable, but given how X/G aggro plays, several creatures (~3-4?) are usually 4-drops (and sometimes a 5-drop), so it would likely need to be in a 17-19 creature deck in order to reach the minimum 14 target range. That's pretty narrow because it's limited to aggro-only to start, and further limited to a specific structure of that given aggro deck too. Has potential to be a strong effect, but it's both narrow and risky even in decks that can play it successfully. And the lower the curve gets, the more you risk hitting a 1-drop + 2-drop (or 2 1-drops ), rather than two 2+ cmc creatures. Could be really good after a Brainstorm effect though...
I tried working out the percentages of hits in R. I'm pretty inexperienced when it comes to using R but I do like getting practice with my hobbies. Hopefully this table isn't too weird to read and my function is right (Of course, doesn't account for fetches or searches and I didn't really figure out the conditional probability of having a 4th land on turn 4 and what that leaves your deck with and all that). Omitted some stuff for readability.
In a discussion about this card, somebody brought up Predator's Howl and I wonder if that one wouldn't be just better and more reliable (despite needing morbid). It costs the same and is also an instant and if any creatures died this turn, you get 6 power distributed over three bodies which should be better than the average output of Collected Company. And you can run Howl in all kinds of decks and don't have to run 13+ specific targets.
Interesting comparison, and Idk what would be better, but it's worth to mention that all two- and three-drops in cube and even some one-drops will be better than a bear. So getting 2 dudes from your deck may well be better than 3 bears.
The comparison between Collected Company and Predator's Howl will completely boil down to the quality of the creatures you hit with Company. You could get way better value than 3 bears, or you could whiff way worse than 1 bear. It's one of those cards where you have to be totally comfortable with the natural variance of the card in order to want to run it.
I'm not as worried about whiffing. If you didn't have any weenies in the top 6 cards of your weenie deck, there's a good chance that you would have been screwed and are glad you got the top 6. Kind of similar to how Satyr Wayfinder plays where whiffing isn't as feel-bad as you might think.
I'm still not certain if the reward is really worth the risk though. It's cool in some ways, but unless you're running some sort of combo (say, Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit and Kitchen Finks with a sac outlet), it's very possible that the upside isn't much higher than a midrangy planeswalker like Garruk Relentless, or at least not enough to justify the risk. And even if it is that much better, it only goes into one type of deck, unlike most of the cards it competes with.
It's a powerful effect to be sure, and I can't wait to brew with it in constructed, but I'll let cube managers report back before I give it a spin.
I'm not as worried about whiffing. If you didn't have any weenies in the top 6 cards of your weenie deck, there's a good chance that you would have been screwed and are glad you got the top 6.
Oh man, I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of insane noncreautre cards that I'd love to draw. Especially the ones that still count as threats like Bitterblossoms, Garruks and Elspeths and stuff. Or losing valuable removal or things like Swords/Jittes ...it's all a bummer to lose. You're also not playing this until T4, so in decks that can support it, you've probably played 2-3 creatures already and likely have a backup threat or two in your hand as well.
In a hard aggro deck that has 14 creatures ranging from 1-3 mana you hit the 75%+ threshold for success rate, which I feel would be the break-over point for inclusion. That's doable, but given how X/G aggro plays, several creatures (~3-4?) are usually 4-drops (and sometimes a 5-drop), so it would likely need to be in a 17-19 creature deck in order to reach the minimum 14 target range. That's pretty narrow because it's limited to aggro-only to start, and further limited to a specific structure of that given aggro deck too. Has potential to be a strong effect, but it's both narrow and risky even in decks that can play it successfully. And the lower the curve gets, the more you risk hitting a 1-drop + 2-drop (or 2 1-drops ), rather than two 2+ cmc creatures. Could be really good after a Brainstorm effect though...
I've decided to give Collected Company a trial run in the cube. In a deck with 15 1-3cc targets, you have a 83% chance of getting 2 guys with it. The floor is low on this card, but the ceiling is high. I've been watching it in constructed shells and it seems that despite the variance (I've seen it whiff a lot there too) when it's good, it's really good. X/G aggro decks tend to have a higher-than-normal creature count, even from an aggro standpoint, and the splashable cost may prove to be enough to put it over the top. We'll see how it does in testing...
Was toying around with the idea, but havent pule the trigger on it. Curious how it goes, interested in updated opinion after multiple tests!
My concern mirrors one of your initial ones "That's pretty narrow because it's limited to aggro-only to start, and further limited to a specific structure of that given aggro deck too. "
Still think this true... Im afraid it'll be like a birthing pod type effect, where it's a super powerful card when built around effectively, but the payoff of building around it is too small. There's only one copy of it in your deck and there's not enough other redundant effects that utilize that type of deck design for when you don't draw it.
In sumamry, think it's rare you'll naturally fall into a collective company deck, and don't think it's powerful enough to build around one copy.
Maybe it'll be good enough in any G/x agro deck, or Wg type deck, so still interested in hearing test reports. 2 flash creatures for 4 mana is absurd value...
It may not be as "aggro only" as I originally estimated. Creature-heavy midrange decks are perfectly happy flipping a mana elf and a Caryatid or something off this card too. Granted, it's hard to reach 15 1-3cc creature targets in a typical midrange deck, but I suppose it could happen.
But watching it get played in Standard, Modern and in Legacy in a variety of different shells made me give it another look. Good in constructed ≠ good in cube, but if I can find out the underlying reason why it seems so universally playable, and see if that factor applies to the cube, it may prove to be a useful correlation.
It may not be as "aggro only" as I originally estimated. Creature-heavy midrange decks are perfectly happy flipping a mana elf and a Caryatid or something off this card too. Granted, it's hard to reach 15 1-3cc creature targets in a typical midrange deck, but I suppose it could happen.
Yeah, definitly good in those decks, but think they are hard to assemble in cube. It's possible to build your cube to be better for collected company.
EG If you have selesnya make up be voice of resurgence, kitchen finks, qasali pridemage, fleecemane lion and knight of the reliquary. Could be much better for company than if you have cards like mirrari's wake, sigarda, armada wurm etc.
Very possible that if collected company turns out to be too narrow now, it could be awsome in 3 years when the landscape of 1-3 drops changes.
I'm still not sold on this in a cube environment. You have to mold your deck very carefully to make this work. I'm not sold on the upside being absurdly high either; most cube cards at CMC 3 or lower are prized for efficiency, and two of them are unlikely to overcome Titans. I say all this as a guy who's completely jumped on the Company bandwagon in Standard.
3G
Instant
Look at the top six cards of your library. Put up to two creature cards with converted mana cost 3 or less from among them onto the battlefield. Put the rest on the bottom of your library in any order
I like that it's an instant, and that it's easily splashable. Thoughts?
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Definitely interesting. I'm thinking this will make my list, but testing's definitely required.
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Cubecobra
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~ 2.6% chance that you get no target
~ 15.6% chance that you get 1 target
~ 81.7% chance that you get 2 or more targets
That's the best case deck and more optimistic than wtwlf's numbers. In such a deck this card would be good, but that's the only deck, and probably not even a commonly played deck, where it would be good. Last draft I played such a deck and would have loved this card, but overall I agree it's too narrow.
And no it is not GSZ
That said, only looking 6 cards deep means that you won't always get the BCS of bringing creatures with a combined cost between 4-6 into play, even in a straight aggro deck. Since the effect is already restricted to putting no more than two creatures onto the battlefield, it really should have looked 8 cards deep to be worth it for cube.
Uril, the Miststalker RGW -- Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre C -- Vhati il-Dal BG -- Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer RW -- Animar, Soul of Elements URG
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker R -- Maga, Traitor to Mortals B -- Ghave, Guru of Spores BGW -- Sliver Hivelord WUBRG
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> T4HitProbs <- function(HitDeckPercentage){
+ Hit0=dbinom(0,6,prob=HitDeckPercentage)
+ Hit1=dbinom(1,6,prob=HitDeckPercentage)
+ Hit2=1-pbinom(1,6,prob=HitDeckPercentage)
+ c(Hit0,Hit1,Hit2)
+ }
> probhits
Hits
3cmc Deck Percent 0 1 2
0 1.00000000 0.0000000 0.000000000
0.025 0.85906830 0.1321644 0.008767345
0.05 0.73509189 0.2321343 0.032773828
0.075 0.62639805 0.3047342 0.068867765
0.1 0.53144100 0.3542940 0.114265000
0.125 0.44879532 0.3846817 0.166522980
0.15 0.37714952 0.3993348 0.223515703
0.175 0.31529980 0.4012907 0.283409552
0.2 0.26214400 0.3932160 0.344640000
0.225 0.21667570 0.3774351 0.405889200
0.25 0.17797852 0.3559570 0.466064453
0.275 0.14522054 0.3305019 0.524277550
0.3 0.11764900 0.3025260 0.579825000
0.325 0.09458508 0.2732458 0.632169132
0.35 0.07541889 0.2436610 0.680920078
0.375 0.05960464 0.2145767 0.725818634
0.4 0.04665600 0.1866240 0.766720000
0.425 0.03614157 0.1602800 0.803578400
0.45 0.02768064 0.1358868 0.836432578
0.475 0.02093899 0.1136688 0.865392179
0.5 0.01562500 0.0937500 0.890625000
Edit: Well the formatting got bricked but hopefully people can still read it. Extended to half your deck being 3cmc and under.
But I would like to think it has enormous potential.
The strike against it is that for green, you want to build up higher and higher (bigger and badder creatures), but this one isolates at 3cmc or lower.
UR Melek, Izzet ParagonUR, B Shirei, Shizo's CaretakerB, R Jaya Ballard, Task MageR,RW Tajic, Blade of the LegionRW, UB Lazav, Dimir MastermindUB, UB Circu, Dimir LobotomistUB, RWU Zedruu the GreatheartedRWU, GUBThe MimeoplasmGUB, UGExperiment Kraj UG, WDarien, King of KjeldorW, BMarrow-GnawerB, WBGKarador, Ghost ChieftainWBG, UTeferi, Temporal ArchmageU, GWUDerevi, Empyrial TacticianGWU, RDaretti, Scrap SavantR, UTalrand, Sky SummonerU, GEzuri, Renegade LeaderG, WUBRGReaper KingWUBRG, RGXenagos, God of RevelsRG, CKozilek, Butcher of TruthC, WUBRGGeneral TazriWUBRG, GTitania, Protector of ArgothG
Uril, the Miststalker RGW -- Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre C -- Vhati il-Dal BG -- Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer RW -- Animar, Soul of Elements URG
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker R -- Maga, Traitor to Mortals B -- Ghave, Guru of Spores BGW -- Sliver Hivelord WUBRG
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I'm still not certain if the reward is really worth the risk though. It's cool in some ways, but unless you're running some sort of combo (say, Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit and Kitchen Finks with a sac outlet), it's very possible that the upside isn't much higher than a midrangy planeswalker like Garruk Relentless, or at least not enough to justify the risk. And even if it is that much better, it only goes into one type of deck, unlike most of the cards it competes with.
It's a powerful effect to be sure, and I can't wait to brew with it in constructed, but I'll let cube managers report back before I give it a spin.
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Oh man, I'm not so sure about that. There are a lot of insane noncreautre cards that I'd love to draw. Especially the ones that still count as threats like Bitterblossoms, Garruks and Elspeths and stuff. Or losing valuable removal or things like Swords/Jittes ...it's all a bummer to lose. You're also not playing this until T4, so in decks that can support it, you've probably played 2-3 creatures already and likely have a backup threat or two in your hand as well.
My 630 Card Powered Cube
My Article - "Cube Design Philosophy"
My Article - "Mana Short: A study in limited resource management."
My 50th Set (P)review - Discusses my top 20 Cube cards from OTJ!
I've decided to give Collected Company a trial run in the cube. In a deck with 15 1-3cc targets, you have a 83% chance of getting 2 guys with it. The floor is low on this card, but the ceiling is high. I've been watching it in constructed shells and it seems that despite the variance (I've seen it whiff a lot there too) when it's good, it's really good. X/G aggro decks tend to have a higher-than-normal creature count, even from an aggro standpoint, and the splashable cost may prove to be enough to put it over the top. We'll see how it does in testing...
My 630 Card Powered Cube
My Article - "Cube Design Philosophy"
My Article - "Mana Short: A study in limited resource management."
My 50th Set (P)review - Discusses my top 20 Cube cards from OTJ!
My concern mirrors one of your initial ones "That's pretty narrow because it's limited to aggro-only to start, and further limited to a specific structure of that given aggro deck too. "
Still think this true... Im afraid it'll be like a birthing pod type effect, where it's a super powerful card when built around effectively, but the payoff of building around it is too small. There's only one copy of it in your deck and there's not enough other redundant effects that utilize that type of deck design for when you don't draw it.
In sumamry, think it's rare you'll naturally fall into a collective company deck, and don't think it's powerful enough to build around one copy.
Maybe it'll be good enough in any G/x agro deck, or Wg type deck, so still interested in hearing test reports. 2 flash creatures for 4 mana is absurd value...
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And once again, cards doing well in constructed that aren't linears often pique our interest to look at them in Cube.
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But watching it get played in Standard, Modern and in Legacy in a variety of different shells made me give it another look. Good in constructed ≠ good in cube, but if I can find out the underlying reason why it seems so universally playable, and see if that factor applies to the cube, it may prove to be a useful correlation.
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My Article - "Cube Design Philosophy"
My Article - "Mana Short: A study in limited resource management."
My 50th Set (P)review - Discusses my top 20 Cube cards from OTJ!
Yeah, definitly good in those decks, but think they are hard to assemble in cube. It's possible to build your cube to be better for collected company.
EG If you have selesnya make up be voice of resurgence, kitchen finks, qasali pridemage, fleecemane lion and knight of the reliquary. Could be much better for company than if you have cards like mirrari's wake, sigarda, armada wurm etc.
Very possible that if collected company turns out to be too narrow now, it could be awsome in 3 years when the landscape of 1-3 drops changes.
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