When GO TO JAIL enters the battlefield, exile target creature an opponent controls until GO TO JAIL leaves the battlefield.
At the beginning of the upkeep of the exiled card's owner, that player rolls two six-sided dice. If he or she rolls doubles, sacrifice GO TO JAIL.
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I think this is a cool and efficiently costed card, but in my view the 1/6 chance of losing it every upkeep makes it less attractive than something like Journey to Nowhere.
1 in 36 is if you want a specific pair of doubles to be thrown, 1/6 is right in terms of it happening just in general. If you rolled them separately, it doesn't really matter what you roll on the first because on the second you have a 1/6 chance in matching it.
Because of that, this seems pretty bad, there's too much variance in magic and cube is too efficient to rely on those odds.
This is how I view it. It's probably pretty comparable to Oust. It won't remove the creature forever, but can keep it off the board until it's not as relevant. I'd say Oust is better than this since Oust makes them have to recast it, but this doesn't look too bad.
If I did my math right, roughly ~70% of the time this will keep the creature off the field past when they would draw + potentially cast the creature again if it was Ousted instead. (30/36)*(30/36), is that right for calculating the odds of that not happening at least once?
Those numbers ignore a number of factors obviously but %30 is kinda brutal to rely on and those odds/percentages continue to drop. As someone not known for my gambling luck, this card scares me.
Fwiw, I think this is better than oust, but still not sure if I'd cube it.
Oust probably a bit better in a control deck, whereas I think this is clearly better in a tempo or an agro deck.
You don't really want to be using it on creatures with sick ETB abilities, but it's a solid way of buying time on a creature you cannot deal with otherwise, or to push past a blocker, while developing your board.
This is definitely cubebale, but I'm happy with my removal suite in white, feel almost overaturated. I think I'd rather have journey to nowhere in my cube than this.
The larger the cube gets, the more room you have for removal, but the less important mana effecient tempo plays like this one become.
That's the probability each turn but this isn't what Salmo is after.
Salmo is comparing GO TO JAIL to Oust by calculating the chance that the exiled creature remains out of play for at least two upkeeps, the minimum that Oust removes its target from play.
Oust not only forces your opponent to cast it again, it forces your opponent to draw it again. That's a big deal.
You're absolutely right. Salmo considers this when they say that the calculation leaves out a variety of other factors.
Oust is a card that I wouldn't have considered comparing this one to, but it makes a lot of sense to think of this as a tempo spell rather than an o-ring, even if it's not a 1-to-1.
Oust not only forces your opponent to cast it again, it forces your opponent to draw it again. That's a big deal.
Yeah that's what I'm referring to with ignoring a number of factors and just looking at the time spent away, for some games just drawing that creature again is another layer to the brutal ***** club sandwich Oust served you. If it's comparable to Oust--which I think it is--it's prob an OK option for larger cubes that need more than path/STP.
This card is fine, but it's not one of the better one mana options. It's better than unplayed cards like Guard Duty and Smite, but generally worse than fringe cards like Condemn, Harm's Way, and Oust.
I also find the ALL CAPS to be aesthetically displeasing.
GO TO JAIL
W
Enchantment
Common
When GO TO JAIL enters the battlefield, exile target creature an opponent controls until GO TO JAIL leaves the battlefield.
At the beginning of the upkeep of the exiled card's owner, that player rolls two six-sided dice. If he or she rolls doubles, sacrifice GO TO JAIL.
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I think this is a cool and efficiently costed card, but in my view the 1/6 chance of losing it every upkeep makes it less attractive than something like Journey to Nowhere.
What say you?
Here's my cube! Give it a draft!
Because of that, this seems pretty bad, there's too much variance in magic and cube is too efficient to rely on those odds.
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This is how I view it. It's probably pretty comparable to Oust. It won't remove the creature forever, but can keep it off the board until it's not as relevant. I'd say Oust is better than this since Oust makes them have to recast it, but this doesn't look too bad.
[180 classic cube]
Those numbers ignore a number of factors obviously but %30 is kinda brutal to rely on and those odds/percentages continue to drop. As someone not known for my gambling luck, this card scares me.
Also, follow us on twitter! @TurnOneMagic
Oust probably a bit better in a control deck, whereas I think this is clearly better in a tempo or an agro deck.
You don't really want to be using it on creatures with sick ETB abilities, but it's a solid way of buying time on a creature you cannot deal with otherwise, or to push past a blocker, while developing your board.
This is definitely cubebale, but I'm happy with my removal suite in white, feel almost overaturated. I think I'd rather have journey to nowhere in my cube than this.
The larger the cube gets, the more room you have for removal, but the less important mana effecient tempo plays like this one become.
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That's the probability each turn but this isn't what Salmo is after.
Salmo is comparing GO TO JAIL to Oust by calculating the chance that the exiled creature remains out of play for at least two upkeeps, the minimum that Oust removes its target from play.
That probability is (30/36)*(30/36) or 69.44...%.
Here's my cube! Give it a draft!
You're absolutely right. Salmo considers this when they say that the calculation leaves out a variety of other factors.
Oust is a card that I wouldn't have considered comparing this one to, but it makes a lot of sense to think of this as a tempo spell rather than an o-ring, even if it's not a 1-to-1.
Here's my cube! Give it a draft!
Yeah that's what I'm referring to with ignoring a number of factors and just looking at the time spent away, for some games just drawing that creature again is another layer to the brutal ***** club sandwich Oust served you. If it's comparable to Oust--which I think it is--it's prob an OK option for larger cubes that need more than path/STP.
Also, follow us on twitter! @TurnOneMagic
I also find the ALL CAPS to be aesthetically displeasing.
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