At 550 I still run Into the Roil, but cut Repeal some time ago. With that said, I'm inclined to agree with HH as far as the mana issues are concerned. I've seen all the math to support the probability of having two sources of a specific color by a specific turn, but I've found that, in practice, that's often just not the way things play out. Like HH said, maybe I'm just incredibly lucky, but I've had plenty of 9/8 all basics manabases that have performed just fine and had no issues consistently having two of both my colors by turn four in most of my games. Mana and color screw does happen, of course, but that can also happen with even the best of mana bases. Luck is still a factor here. Obviously it's hard to argue with math, but that's just not what I've found. I mind running cards that cost CC a lot more than I mind running cards that are 2CC or even 1CC.
On the subject of black five drops, I have two actual five drop creatures with Drana and Shriekmaw. I'm a big proponent of Drana, but I realize that she's a bit of a pet card and she's easily swappable with pretty much any of the other "good enough" black five drop creatures. I'm also running Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath and Liliana Vess. This version of Ob Nix has been fine and five drop Lili has been in and out of my cube a few times in her lifetime. She's never bad, but also never great.
Let's not take this in the direction you're going because it isn't fair or considerate.
The direction I'm taking it. Fine. Really now? I believe that you took the argument in the direction of ignoring the pros of one of the cards, and ignoring the math behind the casting cost disparity, and calling the other card plain bad. But sure, I was the one driving the debate into a place that wasn't fair or considerate...
Quote from hawkeye »
Also, I'm not sure where you guys get the stats on double mana of a given color by turn 4, but I haven't had problems with this. Maybe I'm just really lucky.
You can use a hypergeometric calculator like the one that Konfusius posted to run the numbers for yourself. Double-color by turn four requires TEN sources to achieve with a 75%+ probability (and that's just for the two colored sources! ...it doesn't calculate the additional requirements of actually having 4 total mana sources by then either). That's not something that's easily done when it's your secondary color. Must be luck.
You don't have to agree with the counterpoint, but you can't take my conclusion and treat it as though that is the whole point being made in opposition to your own.
Your conclusion wasn't that it was close but sided with Roil. You said the card was bad. The card is far from bad. If you say it's bad, that's a point I can argue to, because I think it's close and comparable (often better!) to a very cubeable card.
Quote from hawkeye »
Really. You unfairly reduced my entire argument to "Repeal is bad, repeal just isn't good" stripping away all of the context provided by myself and others. It's completely disingenuous.
I admitted multiple times that I ran Roil over Repeal, and acknowledged the reasons why, so I didn't strip anyone's arguments down or ignore any of the pros of Roil. If anything, I provided the info for why Repeal's average cost is less than Roil's at full value, and you ignored that. I also provided the math for the casting cost disparity between the two, and you dismissed that too. Twice. So ...ya. Don't know what else to tell you.
You know what you said, it is right on the last page.
Ditto.
..........
I actually really like Ob Nixilis, the Fallen. He was a pet card of mine for a long time, and I still have him in my on-deck binder. Good to see that there are other small-ish lists out there that still run him.
I also ran Ob dude for a while when he came out, but honestly with my push towards lots of B symbols Grey Merchant has been better sooner in the game. He's still on my on-deck binder, but I want to try the PW before going back to the dude.
On Bloodgift Demon and similar cards, my favourite Phyrexian Arena variant is now Graveborn Muse. Although more vulnerable to removal, the one extra mana for a 3/3 is a good deal since it gives you some stability against attackers immediately, you can dispose of it more easily if needed, and it's very doable to get 2+ triggers/turn if you want more cards since there are plenty of Zombies running about. Arena can be a little slow in that it takes two whole turns to get a card advantage from it and it doesn't instantly help your board state. Muse helps in that regard and sits at a nice place for aggro to afford it, whereas Demon, at five mana, is troublesome for aggro to cast.
EDIT: I forgot about the new Sidisi who is good too.
Is Gray Merchant really that viable? How about non-mono black decks? I still think he's rather unexciting but I happily let you guys change my mind. If he dealt damage instead of causing loss of life, Merchant could at least damage planeswalkers...
I have recently added Grey Merchant (along with my black devotion push), and it's pretty good actually.
-AA
Im a big fan of grey merchant too.
It's average case power level is nothing special (below cube par for sure and probably below the best 5 drops in black), but in the right deck it's very good. The same can't be said for any other black 5 drop.
The best grey merchant deck normally includes recurring nightmare. In that deck he's one of the best creature in it, and the deck is very good.
I'm all for versatile creatures in cube, but not when a versatile creatures is consistently in the 21st-25th playable range and doesn't synergize well with any strategy. Way rather have a narrow card with high upside like grey merchant than a consistent 21st-25th playable like bloodgift demon.
I don't have a mono-black deck really, but black decks that feature cards like Bloodghast and/or Nether Traitor, demons (Obs, Herald, Percy, Desecration), Arenas, PWs (Lilis) or some new additions with which I've been impressed like Nightveil Specter. He often comes into play and drains for 4-7, which is pretty darn good in a lot of circumstances (as a direct damage finisher, as another way to get into the late game vs attacking decks, as a way to refuel the 'cards for life' theme black has...)
I've been happy. My black fives are currently: Shriekmaw, Merchant, and Bloodgift Demon (who is solid but not awesome).
Obviously only the Hellkite and Golem are competing for the same slot but I think I only want two of these at 360. They each have advantages that makes this a difficult choice for me. Hellkite hits players, Atarka can be Natural Ordered in, and Bosh can be Tinkered in.
Is Gray Merchant really that viable? How about non-mono black decks?
He's good in permanent-heavy decks that are at least 3/4 black. Obviously, the blacker your deck, the better, but you don't have to be mono-black for him to be good.
We played Desertion for a long time. That card can lead to super busted situations. However, it costs 5 mana. I am looking for another free counterspell beyond Force of Will (and the situational Daze).
I ran Misdirection for a while, which is certainly great in some situations, but doesn't stop a lot of powerful spells.
A friend recently suggested Pact of Negation, but I also remembered Foil. The alternate cost is definitely steep, but it can be used as early as turn 1 (unlike Pact) and in a reanimator deck (or with some cards like Life from the Loam, Crucible of Worlds, etc) it can actually help.
Looks like you want to test Foil. If that is the case go ahead, but I suspect discarding an Island is too much of a cost.
Never really liked Pact of Negation on cube, though...
I like pact a fair bit in a cube with a considerable amount of artifact ramp.
Not in the top half of blue or anything, but a very playable card and somewhere in the top 40-60 blue cards imo.
Have a ton of experience with pact, no experience with foil.
But my gut tells me it's a stinking unplayable pile in anything but decks with silly amounts of cheap/busted card draw.
On the subject of black five drops, I have two actual five drop creatures with Drana and Shriekmaw. I'm a big proponent of Drana, but I realize that she's a bit of a pet card and she's easily swappable with pretty much any of the other "good enough" black five drop creatures. I'm also running Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath and Liliana Vess. This version of Ob Nix has been fine and five drop Lili has been in and out of my cube a few times in her lifetime. She's never bad, but also never great.
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The direction I'm taking it. Fine. Really now? I believe that you took the argument in the direction of ignoring the pros of one of the cards, and ignoring the math behind the casting cost disparity, and calling the other card plain bad. But sure, I was the one driving the debate into a place that wasn't fair or considerate...
You can use a hypergeometric calculator like the one that Konfusius posted to run the numbers for yourself. Double-color by turn four requires TEN sources to achieve with a 75%+ probability (and that's just for the two colored sources! ...it doesn't calculate the additional requirements of actually having 4 total mana sources by then either). That's not something that's easily done when it's your secondary color. Must be luck.
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Your conclusion wasn't that it was close but sided with Roil. You said the card was bad. The card is far from bad. If you say it's bad, that's a point I can argue to, because I think it's close and comparable (often better!) to a very cubeable card.
I admitted multiple times that I ran Roil over Repeal, and acknowledged the reasons why, so I didn't strip anyone's arguments down or ignore any of the pros of Roil. If anything, I provided the info for why Repeal's average cost is less than Roil's at full value, and you ignored that. I also provided the math for the casting cost disparity between the two, and you dismissed that too. Twice. So ...ya. Don't know what else to tell you.
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Ditto.
..........
I actually really like Ob Nixilis, the Fallen. He was a pet card of mine for a long time, and I still have him in my on-deck binder. Good to see that there are other small-ish lists out there that still run him.
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The other options for black's five slot (not counting Shriekmaw) that are pretty decent are Drana, Kalastria Bloodchief, Ob Nixilis, the Fallen, Shadowborn Demon, the better half of Herald of Torment,, Liliana Vess, Bloodgift Demon, morphing-up Silent Specter, and Gray Merchant of Asphodel. None are absolutely outstanding, but likewise none are embarrassing and will see some play in various decks and probably do well. It's like the opposite problem to green's 5 slot where you have a ton of cards in contention at Tier 1, rather than Tier 2/3.
On Bloodgift Demon and similar cards, my favourite Phyrexian Arena variant is now Graveborn Muse. Although more vulnerable to removal, the one extra mana for a 3/3 is a good deal since it gives you some stability against attackers immediately, you can dispose of it more easily if needed, and it's very doable to get 2+ triggers/turn if you want more cards since there are plenty of Zombies running about. Arena can be a little slow in that it takes two whole turns to get a card advantage from it and it doesn't instantly help your board state. Muse helps in that regard and sits at a nice place for aggro to afford it, whereas Demon, at five mana, is troublesome for aggro to cast.
EDIT: I forgot about the new Sidisi who is good too.
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Im a big fan of grey merchant too.
It's average case power level is nothing special (below cube par for sure and probably below the best 5 drops in black), but in the right deck it's very good. The same can't be said for any other black 5 drop.
The best grey merchant deck normally includes recurring nightmare. In that deck he's one of the best creature in it, and the deck is very good.
I'm all for versatile creatures in cube, but not when a versatile creatures is consistently in the 21st-25th playable range and doesn't synergize well with any strategy. Way rather have a narrow card with high upside like grey merchant than a consistent 21st-25th playable like bloodgift demon.
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Sidisi, Undead Vizier?
But for those, Ob Nixilis PW.
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I've been happy. My black fives are currently: Shriekmaw, Merchant, and Bloodgift Demon (who is solid but not awesome).
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Dragonlord Atarka
Bosh, Iron Golem
Bogardan Hellkite
Obviously only the Hellkite and Golem are competing for the same slot but I think I only want two of these at 360. They each have advantages that makes this a difficult choice for me. Hellkite hits players, Atarka can be Natural Ordered in, and Bosh can be Tinkered in.
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However, I cut him a while for Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath, who just goes into more decks than Merchant.
...
Cut one:
Foil vs Pact of Negation
Uril, the Miststalker RGW -- Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre C -- Vhati il-Dal BG -- Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer RW -- Animar, Soul of Elements URG
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker R -- Maga, Traitor to Mortals B -- Ghave, Guru of Spores BGW -- Sliver Hivelord WUBRG
I ran Misdirection for a while, which is certainly great in some situations, but doesn't stop a lot of powerful spells.
A friend recently suggested Pact of Negation, but I also remembered Foil. The alternate cost is definitely steep, but it can be used as early as turn 1 (unlike Pact) and in a reanimator deck (or with some cards like Life from the Loam, Crucible of Worlds, etc) it can actually help.
Uril, the Miststalker RGW -- Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre C -- Vhati il-Dal BG -- Jor Kadeen, the Prevailer RW -- Animar, Soul of Elements URG
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker R -- Maga, Traitor to Mortals B -- Ghave, Guru of Spores BGW -- Sliver Hivelord WUBRG
Foil seems like the easy choice for cutting to me.
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Never really liked Pact of Negation on cube, though...
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Not in the top half of blue or anything, but a very playable card and somewhere in the top 40-60 blue cards imo.
Have a ton of experience with pact, no experience with foil.
But my gut tells me it's a stinking unplayable pile in anything but decks with silly amounts of cheap/busted card draw.
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